The Global Week Ahead

Written By Francis Kelly

December 3 - 10, 2023

(NOTE: We apologize for the late publication of our Global Week Ahead.  We experienced technical problems, which have now been fixed).

The Gaza War and the Ukraine War will be dominant issues again this week on the geopolitical calendar.  The US Congress is going to try to move a spending package providing military aid to Israel and Ukraine this week if they can work out an agreement on US border security.  This goal is proving challenging as negotiations keep breaking down.  The White House told Congress that Ukraine will run out of money by the end of the month unless they can approve new funding. 

In Europe, in the wake of the German Constitutional Court decision striking down the German budget and as other EU nations begin struggling with budgets, European Finance Ministers will gather this week to try to hammer out an EU 2024 budget with Ukrainian funding, a critical component of the package. 

On Tuesday, the 44th Gulf Cooperation Council will meet in Qatar, where Gulf leaders will focus on the War in Gaza and prospects for a two-state solution.  But there is little hope of concrete developments from the meetings.

Also, this week, the EU-China Summit will take place in Beijing.  Following the recent success of the APEC Summit and the meeting between President Biden and President Xi, it is hoped EU leaders can achieve new cooperating workstreams with China on several contentious issues, including tech transfer, direct investment, and security.

On the global economic radar screen this week, markets will look at the US jobs report on Friday as a further indication the Federal Reserve has achieved its goals to reduce inflation and no longer need to raise rates ahead of the December 13 Open Market Committee meeting.  Also, this week, markets will be watching the ECB consumer expectation survey and the Bank of Canada interest rate meetings.

Turning to Asia, markets will look at China’s trade balance numbers and Japan’s CPI later this week. 

Here is what else we are watching around the world this coming week:

Sunday, December 3, 2023

Global

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report. 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Monday, December 4, 2023

Global

  • The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a meeting on threats to international peace and security. In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the Middle East.  

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • US Factory Orders (October)

  • Mexico Gross Fixed Investment (September)

  • Brazil Current Account (October), FDI (October), IPC-Fipe Inflation (November)

  • Colombia Exports (October)

  • Argentina Tax Revenue (December)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • The first Cambodia-Laos-Vietnam Parliamentary Summit will take place in Vientiane, Laos, through December 7.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • Brazilian President Lula meets Chancellor Olaf Scholz and President Frank-Walter Steinmeier in Berlin.  They are expected to discuss the G20 Agenda for 2024 (Brazil has just become the chair of the G20) and how to save the EU-Mercosur Treaty negotiation.

  • The EU Justice and Home Affairs Council meet through December 5.  They are expected to get a progress report on all the legislative files of the Pact on asylum and migration. Ministers will also receive a state of play of the external dimension of migration. The impact of the crisis in the Middle East and Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine on the EU’s internal security will also feature on the agenda.  Justice ministers will aim to reach a general approach on a regulation on the transfer of proceedings and approve the e-justice strategy for 2024-2028.

  • EU Transport, Telecommunications and Energy Council will meet.  They are expected to agree a general approach on several legislative files related to three transport modes (horizontal, land and shipping): two Commission proposals of the ‘road safety’ package

  • The Financial Times Business Book of the Year is announced.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • ECB President Christine Lagarde gives a speech and participates in a Q&A at the Académie des Sciences Morales et Politique's conference in Paris, France.

  • ECB Board Member Frank Elderson participates in a panel discussion on Nature and Water Finance for Climate Action organized by the COP 28 Presidency in Dubai, UAE.  Later in the day, he participates in a high-level panel on financial regulation organized by the World Bank.  After that, he participates in a panel discussion at a high-level session, "Inside Green Finance’s Regulatory Landscape," organized by the Abu Dhabi Global Market.  From there, he participates in a  Fireside chat with Mr Elderson and NGFS Chairs (past, current and future) organized by the Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS) in Dubai, United Arab Emirates.  He then participates on a panel “Accelerating Action: Private Sector Accountability & Regulation for Net-Zero Transition" organized by the COP28 Presidency.

  • ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos gives the opening speech at the conference "Una banca en transformación" organized by Prensa Iberica and Grant Thornton in Madrid, Spain.

  • Germany Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (October)

  • Spain Unemployment (November)

  • Switzerland Inflation (October), CPI (October)

  • Romania Unemployment (October)

  • Slovakia Real Wages (Q3)

  •  

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is expected to arrive in Qatar for talks on the Middle East conflict. 

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Turkey Inflation (October), CPI (October), PPI (October)

  • Bahrain M2 Money Supply (October), Private Sector Credit (October)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report. 

 

Tuesday, December 5, 2023

Global

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • US Redbook (December 2), S&P Global Services & Composite PMIs (November), ISM Services PMI (November), JOLTs Job Openings (October), ISM Services Employment (November), RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (December), LMI Logistics Managers Index (November), Total Vehicle Sales (November)

  • Brazil GDP (Q3), BCB Focus Market Readout, Bank Lending (October), S&P Services & Composite PMIs (November)

  • Colombia PPI (November)

  • Uruguay Inflation (November)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • China Caixin Services & Composite PMIs (November)

  • Japan Tokyo Core CPI (November) Jibun Bank Services & Composite PMIs (November)

  • India S&P Global Services & Composite PMIs (November)

  • Singapore S&P Global PMI (November), Retail Sales (October)

  • South Korea GDP (Q3), Inflation (November), CPI (November), FX Reserves (November)

  • Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate Decision

  • Australia Judo Bank Services PMI (November), Current Account (q3), Next Exports Contribution to GDP (Q3)

  • Taiwan FX Reserves (November)

  • Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (November)

  • Philippine Inflation (November)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • The foreign ministers of Azerbaijan, Iran, Kazakhstan, Russia and Turkmenistan will meet in Moscow, Russia. 

  • The EU Transport, Telecommunications and Energy Council (Telecommunications) meets to discuss a general approach on the regulation on measures to reduce the cost of deploying gigabit electronic communications networks (gigabit infrastructure act) and take note of a progress report on the cyber solidarity act (CSoA) laying down measures to strengthen solidarity and capacities in the EU to detect, prepare for and respond to cybersecurity threats and incidents. Ministers will also hold a policy debate on technological leadership and competitiveness and discuss the state of play on a number of current legislative files in the field of telecommunications.

Economic Reports/Events –

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Egypt S&P Global PMI (November)

  • Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (November)

  • Lebanon BLOM PMI (November)

  • Israel Business Confidence (November)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Kenya’s President William Ruto will pay a three-day state visit to India. He will meet Prime Minister Narendra Modi and participate in a business and investment event in New Delhi.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • South Africa S&P Global PMI (November), GDP (Q3)

  • Kenya Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Stanbic Bank PMI (November)

 

 

Wednesday, December 6, 2023

Global

Americas

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • US Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (October), Nonfarm Productivity (Q3), MBA Mortgage Market Index (December 1), ADP Employment Change (November)

  • Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision

  • Canada Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (October), Ivey PMI (November)

  • Brazil Gross Debt to GDP (October), Nominal Budget Balance (October), Car Production (November)

  • Mexico Consumer Confidence (November), Auto Exports (November), Auto Production (November)

  • Colombia Inflation (November)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Taiwan Inflation (November)

  • Australia GDP ((Q3), RBA Chart pack, Ai Group Industry Index (November), Ai Group Construction Index (December)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Eurozone Retail Sales (October)

  • Germany Factory Orders (October), HCOB Construction PMI (November)

  • Italy HCOB Construction PMI (November)

  • UK Financial Stability Report,  S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI (November)

  • France HCOB Construction PMI (November)

  • Ireland Unemployment (November)

  • Greece GDP (Q3)

  • Poland Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

  • Romania Retail Sales (October)

  • Hungary Industrial Production (October), Retail Sales (October), Central Bank Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

  • Slovakia Retail Sales (October)

  • Ukraine FX Reserves (November)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • UAE S&P Global PMI (November)

  • Egypt Current Account (Q3)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • The African Union Congress of African Economists will gather in Lusaka, Zambia, to discuss the link between illicit financial flows, debt management, and development in Africa.

Economic Reports/Events –

  •  Nothing significant to report.

  

Thursday, December 7, 2023

Global

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • China Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (November)

  • Japan Coincident Index (October), Leading Economic Index (October)

  • Indonesia FX Reserves (November)

  • Australia Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (October), Building Permits (October)

  • Philippines Unemployment (October)

  • Hong Kong FX Reserves (November)

  • Singapore FX Reserves (November)

  • Thailand CPI (November), Inflation (November)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • The EU-China Summit begins in Beijing.  The agenda items include Among items on the agenda at the first in-person summit in four years is to seek what European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen called a level playing field in trade. The European Union posted the highest trade deficit on record with China in 2022, at nearly 400 billion euros ($436 billion).

  • The Eurogroup (European Finance Ministers) will meet in Brussels. They will will discuss the overall budgetary situation and prospects in the euro area and review the economic and fiscal situation of the euro area member states. This discussion is based on Commission opinions on the draft budgetary plans (DBPs) of the euro area member states and on the Commission's communication on its overall assessment of the DBPs, published on 21 November 2023.  They will also exchange first views on the euro area recommendation published with the autumn package on 21 November 2023. The euro area recommendation is expected to be agreed at the Eurogroup and ECOFIN meetings on 15 and 16 January 2024 before being transmitted to the European Council for its meeting on 21-22 March 2024.

  • Russian President Vladimir Putin will speak at the plenary session of the 30th annual "Russia Calling!" Investment Forum.

  • The EU Competitiveness Council (Internal market and industry) will meet to adopt a general approach on the Net-Zero Industry Act. They will hold a policy debate concerning the Regulation on forced labor. During lunch, ministers will exchange views on SME policy.

  • NATO Secretary General, Mr. Jens Stoltenberg, will receive the Prime Minister of the Grand Duchy of Luxembourg, Luc Frieden, at NATO Headquarters.  

Economic Reports/Events –

  • ECB Board Member Frank Elderson gives a speech at an event organized by the Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS) in Brussels, Belgium.

  • Eurozone GDP (Q3), Employment Change (Q3)

  • Germany Industrial Production (October)

  • UK Halifax House Price Index (November), BBA Mortgage Rate (November)

  • France Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (October)

  • Italy Retail Sales (October)

  • Romania GDP (Q3)

  • Bulgaria Industrial Production (October)

  • Switzerland Unemployment (November), FX Reserves (November)

  • Hungary PPI (November)

  • Serbia Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

  • Russia FX Reserves (November)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Egypt FX Reserves (November)

  • Saudi Arabia GDP (Q3)

  • Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (November)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • South Africa FX Reserves (November), Current Account (Q3)

 

 

Friday, December 8, 2023

Global

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • US Non-Farm Payrolls (November), Unemployment (November), Michigan Consumer Expectations (December), WASDE Report

  • Canada Capacity Utilization (Q3)

  • Brazil Business Confidence (December)

  • Costa Rica Inflation (November)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • China FX Reserves (November)

  • Japan GDP (Q3), Current Account (October), Household Spending (October), Average Cash

  • Earnings (October), Overtime Pay (October), Bank Lending (November), Eco Watchers Survey (November)

  • India Reserve Bank Interest Rate Decision, Cash Reserve Ratio, FX Reserves (December 1)

  • Taiwan Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (November)

  • Philippine FDI (September)

  • Indonesia Consumer Confidence (November)

  • Malaysia Unemployment (October)

  • Thailand Consumer Confidence (November), FX Reserves (November)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • The UK’s National Audit Office issues a report on financial services regulation, examining the Financial Conduct Authority’s effectiveness in working with others, particularly Treasury officials.

  • The EU Economic and Financial Affairs Council (ECOFIN) will meet to seek a general approach on the proposed reform of the economic governance framework. Ministers will adopt implementing decisions approving modified recovery and resilience plans submitted by some member states. The presidency will present progress reports on own resources and the single currency package. Ministers will discuss the economic and financial impact of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine and the European Semester.

  • The EU Competitiveness Council (Research and space) will meet seek a general approach on the proposed reform of the economic governance framework. Ministers will adopt implementing decisions approving modified recovery and resilience plans, submitted by some member states. The presidency will present progress reports on own resources and the single currency package. Ministers will discuss the economic and financial impact of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine and the European Semester. The Council will approve report to the European Council on tax issues and conclusions on the progress achieved by the Code of Conduct Group.

  • UK train drivers' union ASLEF will hold a rolling seven-day strike impacting services at 14 British railway companies.

  • Germany’s Social Democrats will meet through Sunday for their annual national party conference in Berlin, Germany.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Germany Inflation (November), CPI (November)

  • France Non-Farm Payrolls (Q3)

  • Hungary Inflation (November), Balance of Trade (October)

  • Greece Inflation (November), Balance of Trade (October)

  • Ireland Industrial Production (October)

  • Slovakia Balance of Trade (October)

  • Bulgaria Construction Output (October), Industrial Production (October), Retail Sales (October)

  • Poland Central Bank Monetary Policy Minutes

  • Ukraine Inflation (November)

  • Russia Vehicle Sales (November), Inflation (November)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Israel FX Reserves (November), Budget Balance (November)

 

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Tanzania Inflation (November) 

 

Saturday, December 9, 2023

Global

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • China Inflation (November), PPI (November)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

 

Sunday, December 10, 2023

Global

  • The Nobel Prize Awards Ceremony is held in Stockholm, Sweden.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Argentine President-elect Javier Milei will be sworn into office.  Meanwhile, the Argentine Union of State Employees (ATE) is expected to carry out a 24-hour strike to protest Milei’s planned fiscal plans.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Hong Kong holds local District Council elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council will meet through December 11 to discuss the market situation and to exchange views on the first year of implementation of the CAP strategic plans.  Additionally, the Council is expected to address the new genomic techniques regulation, the sustainable use of pesticides regulation, and the proposals for plant reproductive material and forest reproductive material. Finally, fisheries ministers will aim to reach a political agreement on the proposal for fishing opportunities in the Atlantic and the North Sea for 2024 and, in the case of some stocks, also for 2025 and 2026, as well as on the proposal concerning fishing opportunities in the Mediterranean and the Black Sea for 2024.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Egypt holds presidential elections. President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi is widely expected to win re-election.

  • The Doha Forum begins in Doha, Qatar.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

  

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Francis Kelly
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