Recommended Weekend Reads
December 1 - 3, 2023
Here are our recommended reads from reports and articles we read in the last week. We hope you find these useful and that you have a relaxing weekend. And let us know if you or someone you know wants to be added to our distribution list.
Americas
“Import Substitution and the Economic Downfall of Argentina” OMFIF
At the beginning of the 20th century, Argentina was the fifth-largest economy in the world. Many at the time expected it to rival the US economy. In the 1950s, Argentina’s gross domestic product per capita was twice that of Spain and three times that of Japan. Today, Argentina is a completely different story. It has defaulted nine times in total and three times in the 21st century alone. What went wrong for Argentina? How did it lose its way?
“On the Uses and Misuses of Venezuela Sanctions” Center for Strategic and International Studies
Over the last month, the Biden administration has presided over a sea change in U.S. policy toward Venezuela. The recent lifting of sanctions on the Maduro regime is the most significant alteration of Venezuela's policy in the last several years, coupled with routine deportation flights started on the same day as the sanctions relief to address a torrent of Venezuelan irregular migration. Gone is the policy of “maximum pressure” that Biden inherited from his predecessor, which had garnered bipartisan support on Capitol Hill. From its earliest days, the Biden administration signaled its discomfort with a maximum pressure campaign and its intent to unwind sanctions in exchange for concessions from the Maduro regime toward a free and fair election.
“Henry Kissinger, Colossus on the World Stage” Foreign Policy
Henry Alfred Kissinger, one of the most influential statesmen in American history, died on Nov. 29 at age 100 after a long and tumultuous career in which he helped author some of the greatest triumphs—as well as some of the most tragic failures—of U.S. foreign policy. He was credited with several of the most epoch-making diplomatic achievements since World War II. These included launching detente with the Soviet Union to preserve peace during the Cold War and, along with his boss, President Richard Nixon, dramatically altering the terms of that 40-year conflict by opening relations with communist China in 1972.
“What America Wants from China” Foreign Affairs
Brookings Institution John Thorton China Center Director Ryan Hass writes that Washington needs to set an objective on China that would enjoy durable domestic support and be compatible with foreign partners’ priorities, allowing them to anticipate the direction of U.S. policy and its guiding logic. He then presents a smart and highly compelling strategy for keeping Beijing entangled in the World Order and keeping peace globally.
The Middle East
“The Gaza War and the Rest of the World” Malcolm Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center
Scholars from Carnegie’s global network comment on how the ongoing conflict between Israelis and Palestinians is affecting their areas of interest and what the implications of this may be.
“Why Israel Won’t Change” Foreign Affairs
Almost from the moment Hamas broke through Israel’s security barrier with the Gaza Strip on October 7 and began its rampage, it felt as if Israel would never be the same. Within hours, Israelis were forced to confront the reality that many of the assumptions that had long guided Israeli policy toward the Palestinians had crumbled. Yet, in one major way, Israel remains unchanged. Although Israelis blame the country’s leadership for the catastrophic security failures surrounding the attacks, their basic political orientation seems unlikely to budge. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may well be forced to step down when the war is over—if not before since the war has no clear endpoint. But as Israeli history has repeatedly shown, especially in recent decades, episodes of war or extreme violence like the current one have only reinforced a rightward tilt in Israeli politics.
“Stormy Waters for Saudi Arabia: Regional Conflict and Red Sea Security” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
In recent years, Red Sea security has become a key pillar of Saudi Arabia’s domestic and foreign policy. Driven by geostrategic ambitions and plans to diversify its oil economy, the kingdom has strengthened security relations in the area by building alliances with Israel and coastal African countries and by de-escalating conflicts with Iran and Yemen’s Iranian-backed Houthis. There have been efforts made to modernize the Royal Saudi Naval Forces, particularly the Western Fleet, which operates in the Red Sea, and to tighten naval cooperation with Egypt. Multilateral initiatives have seen Riyadh at the forefront—including the Saudi-led Red Sea Council and U.S.-led task forces deployed in the Red Sea to counter smuggling and train local navies.
North Asia
“Modest Beginnings: North Korea Launches Its First Reconnaissance Satellite” 38 North
North Korea conducted a satellite launch on November 21, first reported by Japanese and South Korean sources. The next day, North Korean media announced a successful launch from the Sohae Satellite Launching Ground of the “Chollima -1” space-launch vehicle (SLV) orbiting the “Malligyong-1” reconnaissance satellite. This was the first successful launch of the Chollima-1 SLV after two previous failures. What does this mean for regional and global security? And what could North Korea do next?
“A Look at China’s Overseas Security Partnerships” American Enterprise Institute Podcast
In this episode of the U.S.-China Nexus Podcast, Sheena Chestnut Greitens and Paul Nantulya examine the motivations and implications of China’s broadening overseas security partnerships.
“How China’s Belt and Road Projects Are Shaping Global Trade and What to Expect from the Initiative in its Second Decade” MERICS China Global Competition Tracker
Having celebrated the end of the first decade of his signature foreign policy at the Belt and Road Forum in October, Xi Jinping has wasted little time in doubling down on China’s global economic ambitions. On November 29th, a follow-up document was released in Beijing to map out the goals of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) for the coming ten years.
Global Finance & Economics
“What We Heard: Bank of Canada Publishes Report on Digital Dollar Consultations, Outlines Further Engagement Plans” Bank of Canada
In a public update on the prospects of moving the Canadian dollar to digital, the Bank of Canada reports they heard: 1) Financial sector stakeholders generally wanted more concrete details about how a digital dollar would work so they could better understand the potential impacts on their business models and overall financial stability. 2) Focus group participants largely accepted the potential need for a digital dollar in the future but wanted more information on how exactly it would work. 2) Civil society groups mainly supported a digital dollar if its design would remove existing barriers to accessibility and financial inclusion. 3) Respondents to the public questionnaire were largely opposed to a digital dollar and to the Bank of Canada researching it. They were concerned about the impacts that a digital dollar could have on their rights.
Chart of the Week
America’s High Schoolers Are Running Out of Time
Bloomberg’s editorial board writes that America’s high schools face a growing crisis: Millions of students who entered ninth grade in the fall of 2020, at the height of the pandemic, are set to graduate this spring, with little hope of recovering from the learning loss incurred while schools were shut. Simply put, they’re running out of time.
They note that since 2022, the average scores on ACT exams were the lowest in 30 years and the number of students receiving failing grades has soared.
This comes as the U.S. rapidly ramps up the re-shoring of hi-tech manufacturing – via the CHIPS Act and the Inflation Reduction Act – which demands a massive new workforce proficient in science and math. Clearly, the challenges of meeting those needs are obviously becoming starker.
