The Global Week Ahead

March 25 - 31, 2024

The coming week should be relatively quiet as the Easter holiday is next weekend and many governments scaling back their activities for the holiday and with major financial markets being closed for Good Friday.   But we live in strange times and, considering the horrid ISIS attack in Moscow killing at least 137 people this past week, we will be watching closely to see what Russian President Vladimir Putin does to retaliate against ISIS (wherever he can find them) and, unfortunately, Ukraine whom he keeps blaming for facilitating the attack.

Also this week, we will be watching for a possible meeting between Chinese President Xi Jingping and US CEOs in Beijing.  The meeting may or may not happen, according to Chinese sources, but if it does happen, it will be interesting to hear Xi’s appeal to the CEOs to continue doing business in China and how he sees the nation’s economic situation.

In the US, Monday is the deadline for former President Donald Trump to come up with enough money to pay a guarantee on the $464 million fine imposed on him by a New York Court or begin having his properties seized by the New York Attorney General.   Congress is out of session this coming week and the following week, too. 

On the economic radar screen this week, the two big events of the week which markets will be watching closely is the US inflation data release and the Bank of Japan’s release of their summary of opinions (could more rate increases be coming to Japan or was this a “one and done” event by the BoJ?).    There will also be a number of sentiment survey releases in the EU, Asia, and the Conference Board survey in the US.

There are only a few central bank speeches of note this week – the most prominent being this coming Friday when Fed Chair Jay Powell participates in the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Macroeconomics and Monetary Policy Conference.

Below is everything else we are watching around the world this week:

Sunday, March 24, 2024

Global

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• El Salvador Current Account Q1

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• The China Development Forum will host CEOs of major global corporations in Beijing through March 25.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• There will be an informal meeting of EU fisheries ministers in Brussels through March 25.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Israel Composite Economic Index (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Senegal is scheduled to hold presidential elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Monday, March 25, 2024

Global

• The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on threats to international peace and security.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Today is the deadline for Donald Trump to find a private company to guarantee the $464mn he has been ordered to pay in a separate New York civil fraud case.

• Guatemalan President Bernardo Arevalo will meet with U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris in Washington, United States, to discuss migration and other issues. 

• Today is the deadline for candidates to register for the presidential election in Venezuela.  However, the government keeps disqualifying everyone who wants to run.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook gives a speech entitled “The Dual Mandate and the Balance of Risks” at Ec10b: Principles of Economics Lecture in Cambridge, Massachusetts.

• Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic will participate in a moderated conversation on “Equitable Economic Development" before the University of Cincinnati Real Estate Center's March Roundtable.

• Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee will be interviewed on Yahoo Finance.

• Brazil Current Account (February)/ Foreign Direct Investment (February)

• Canada Manufacturing Sales Prel (February)

• USA Chicago Fed National Activity Index (February)/ New Home Sales (February)/ Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (March)/ Fed Cook Speech/ 3 & 6-Month Bill Auction/ 2-Year Note Auction/ Building Permits Final (February)

• Colombia Business Confidence (February)

• Argentina Current Account Q12 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Sri Lankan Prime Minister Dinesh Gunawardena will visit China through March 30.

• India celebrates Holi today.  Financial markets are closed.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes/ Coincident Index Final (January)/ Leading Economic Index Final (January)

• Thailand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)

• Malaysia Inflation Rate (February)/ Coincident Index (January)/ Leading Index (January)

• Singapore Core Inflation Rate (February)/ CPI (February)/ Inflation Rate (February)

• Taiwan Industrial Production (February)/ Retail Sales (February)

• Sri Lanka PPI (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Greece celebrates Independence Day.  Financial markets are closed.

• The EU Environmental Council will meet in Brussels.  They will discuss a proposal to revise the waste framework directive, focusing on the textile and food sectors.

Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB Board President Christine Lagarde participates in the EIB Group Climate and Environment Advisory Council in Luxembourg.

• Ireland Consumer Confidence (March)

• Spain PPI (February)/ Consumer Confidence (February)

• Poland Unemployment Rate (February)

• Slovenia Tourist Arrivals (February)

• Great Britain CBI Distributive Trades (March)

• France 3, 6, & 12-Month BTF Auction

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Israel celebrates the festival of Shushan Purim.  Financial markets are closed.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Israel Manufacturing Production (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• The African Union’s Pan-African Parliament will hold elections for president, first vice president, and fourth vice president of the bureau.

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Africa Consumer Confidence Q1

• Ivory Coast Inflation Rate (February)

• Ghana Interest Rate Decision

• Zimbabwe Inflation Rate (March)

Tuesday, March 26, 2024 

Global

• The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations on the Middle East. In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the 1540 Committee. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Carolyn Rogers, Senior Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada, will give a speech on the need to improve Canadian productivity.

• Brazil BCB Copom Meeting Minutes/ Bank Lending (February)/ IPCA mid-month CPI (March)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

• Canada BoC Rogers Speech/ Wholesale Sales Prel (February)

• USA Durable Goods Orders/ Ex Transp/ ex Defense (February)/ Non-Defense Goods Orders Ex Air (February)/ Redbook (March 23)/ S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (January)/ House Price Index (January)/ CB Consumer Confidence (March)/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing and Manufacturing Shipments and Services Index (March)/ Dallas Fed Services Revenues Index (March)/ 5-Year Note Auction/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (March 22)

• Paraguay GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Current Account Q4

• Argentina Economic Activity (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• China hosts the annual Boao Forum for Asia returns to its permanent location in Hainan in southern China. Former Japanese Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda and Las Vegas Sands Chairman and CEO Robert Goldstein are among the delegates expected at the four-day international meeting to discuss economic and geopolitical issues.

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Korea Consumer Confidence (March)

• Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Change & Index (March)/ RBA Connolly Speech

• Sri Lanka Interest Rate Decision

• Singapore Industrial Production (February)/ 5-Year Bond Auction/ MAS 4 & 12-Week Bill Auction

• Hong Kong Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)

• Thailand New Car Sales (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meets in Brussels through April 2. 

Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB Board Member Philip R. Lane participates in a Trinity Student Economic Review event at Trinity College Dublin, Ireland.

• Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (April)/ 5 & 10-Year Bund/g Auction

• Spain GDP Growth Rate Final Q4

• Great Britain 5-Year Treasury Gilt Auction

• Italy 6-Month BOT Auction

• Hungary Deposit Interest Rate (March)/ Inflation Report/ Interest Rate Decision

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Saudi Arabia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)

• Kuwait M2 Money Supply (February)/ Private Bank Lending (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• South Africa's Independent Election Commission will unveil the provisional list of candidates partaking in the country's May 29 general election.

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (January)

• Nigeria Interest Rate Decision

Wednesday, March 27, 2024

Global

• The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations on the United Nations Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUSCO). In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the United Nations Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF). 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller gives a speech entitled “Economic Outlook” at the Economic Club of New York Reception, in New York.

• USA House Price Index (January)/ MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate/ Applications/ Market Index/ Refinance Index/ Purchase Index (March 22)/ EIA Crude Oil Stocks, Gasoline Stocks, Oil Imports, Cushing Crude Oil Stocks, Distillate Fuel Production, Distillate Stocks, Gasoline Production, Heating Oil Stocks, Refinery Crude Runs Change (March 22)/ 17-Week Bill Auction/ 2-Year FRN Auction/ 7-Year Note Auction/ Fed Waller Speech

• Brazil IGP-M Inflation (March)/ Gross Debt to GDP (February)/ Nominal Budget Balance (February)/ Net Payrolls (February)

• Mexico Balance of Trade (February)/ Unemployment Rate (February)

• Argentina Consumer Confidence (March)

• Canada 10-Year Bond Auction

• Russia Industrial Production (February)/ GDP (January)

• Colombia Cement Production (February)/ Unemployment Rate (February)

• Costa Rica GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Current Account Q4

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• China’s President Xi Jinping is tentatively scheduled to meet with US CEOs in Beijing.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board Naoki Tamura will give a speech to local leaders in Aomori, Japan.

• South Korea Business Confidence (March)

• Australia Westpac Leading Index (February)/ Monthly CPI Indicator (February)

• New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence (March)

• China Industrial Profits (YTD) (February)

• Taiwan Consumer Confidence (March)

• Japan 40-Year JGB Auction

• Malaysia PPI (February)

• Singapore 6-Month T-Bill Auction

• Sri Lanka Balance of Trade (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB Board Member Piero Cipollone gives a speech on monetary policy followed by Q&A at the House of the Euro in Brussels, Belgium.

• ECB Board Member Frank Elderson gives a speech and participates on a panel discussion at the “High-level Remarks on Climate-related Financial Risks” event organized by Banco Central do Brasil (BCB) and the Brazilian Federation of Banks (FEBRABAN) in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

• Hungary Current Account Q4/ Unemployment Rate (February)

• France Consumer Confidence (March)/ Unemployment Benefit Claims (February)/ Jobseekers Total (February)

• Slovakia Business Confidence (March)/ Consumer Confidence (March)

• Spain Inflation Rate Prel (March)/ Core Inflation Rate Prel (March)/ Harmonized Inflation Rate Prel (March)/ Retail Sales (February)/ Current Account (January)/ Business Confidence (March)

• Italy Construction Output (January)/ 10-Year BTP Auction/ 5-Year BTP Auction

• Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index (March)

• Euro Area Economic Sentiment (March)/ Consumer Confidence Final (March)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (March)/ Industrial Sentiment (March)/ Selling Price Expectations (March)/ Services Sentiment (March)

• Germany 7-Year Bund Auction

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Qatar GDP Growth Rate for Q3 & Q4

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• The UN Economic Commission for Africa and The African Peer Review Mechanism will hold a retreat in Lusaka, Zambia, to discuss the launch of the African Credit Rating Agency. 

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Africa Interest Rate Decision/ Prime Overdraft Rate

• Mozambique Interest Rate Decision

Thursday, March 28, 2024

Global

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva meets his French counterpart Emmanuel Macron in the presidential palace in Brasília on a state visit.  Macron and Lula are going to try to hammer a long-delayed EU-Mercosur Free Trade deal.

• Today is the sentencing of former chief executive of cryptocurrency exchange FTX Sam Bankman-Fried, convicted by a federal jury of conspiracy to commit wire fraud, conspiracy to commit commodities fraud, conspiracy to commit securities fraud, and conspiracy to commit money laundering.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Canada CFIB Business Barometer (March)/ GDP (January)/ GDP Prel (February)/ Average Weekly Earnings (January)

• Brazil Unemployment Rate (February)

• Chile Copper Production (February)/ Industrial Production (February)/ Manufacturing Production (February)/ Retail Sales (February)/ Unemployment Rate (February)

• USA GDP Growth Rate Final Q4/ Corporate Profits Q4/ GDP Price Index Final Q4/ Initial Jobless Claims (March 23)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (March 16)/ Core PCE Prices Final Q4/ GDP Sales Final Q4/ Jobless Claims 4-week Average (March 23)/ PCE Prices Final Q4/ Real Consumer Spending Final Q4/ Chicago PMI (March)/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final (March)/ Pending Home Sales  (February)/ Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations Final (March)/ Michigan Consumer Expectations Final (March)/ Michigan Current Conditions Final (March)/ Michigan Inflation Expectations Final (March)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (March 22)/ Kansas Fed Composite Index (March)/ Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index (March)/ 4 & 8-Week Bill Auction/ 15 & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (March 27)/ Prospective Plantings – Corn, Cotton, Soy, Wheat 2024/ Quarterly Grain Stocks - Corn, Soy, Wheat (March)/ Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (March 29)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (March 29)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (March)

• Japan BoJ Summary of Opinions, Foreign Bond Investment (March 23), Stock Investment by Foreigners (March 23)

• Australia Housing Credit (February)/ Retail Sales Prel (February)/ Private Sector Credit (February)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (March)

• Singapore Bank Lending (February), Export Prices (February), Import Prices (February), PPI (February)

• Sri Lanka Inflation Rate (March)

• India Current Account Q4/ External Debt Q4

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Polish and Ukrainian leaders are scheduled to meet to discuss ongoing tensions over Polish farmers who are blocking Ukrainian produce at the border.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Great Britain Car Production (February)/ Current Account Q4/ GDP Growth Rate Final Q4/ Business Investment Final Q4

• Germany Retail Sales (February)/ Unemployed Persons (March)/ Unemployment Change (March)/ Unemployment Rate (March)

• Turkey Economic Confidence Index (March)/ MPC Meeting Summary/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (March 22)

• Hungary Gross Wage (January)

• Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (March)

• Euro Area Loans to Companies (February)/ Loans to Households (February)/ M3 Money Supply (February)

• Italy Business Confidence (March)/ Consumer Confidence (March)/ PPI (February)

• Slovenia Retail Sales (February)

• Greece Total Credit (February)

• Ireland Retail Sales (February)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Saudi Arabia Unemployment Rate Q4/ M3 Money Supply (February)/ Private Bank Lending (February)

• Israel M1 Money Supply (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Africa M3 Money Supply (February)/ Private Sector Credit (February)/ PPI (February)/ Balance of Trade (February)/ Budget Balance (February)

• Nigeria Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

Friday, March 29, 2024 

Global

• Today is Good Friday.  Most financial markets in Western nations are closed.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly gives welcome remarks before the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Macroeconomics and Monetary Policy Conference.

• Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to participate in moderated discussion before the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Macroeconomics and Monetary Policy Conference.

• USA Core PCE Price Index (February) / Personal Income (February)/ Personal Spending (February)/ Goods Trade Balance Adv (February)/ PCE Price Index (February)/ Retail Inventories Ex Autos Adv (February)/ Wholesale Inventories Adv (February)/

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Korea Industrial Production (February)/ Retail Sales (February)

• Japan Unemployment Rate (February)/ Jobs/applications ratio (February)/ Tokyo Core CPI (March)/ Tokyo CPI Ex Food and Energy (March)/ Tokyo CPI (March)/ Industrial Production Prel (February)/ Retail Sales (February)/ Industrial Production Prel (February)/ 2-Year JGB Auction/ Housing Starts (February)/ Construction Orders (February)

• Vietnam Balance of Trade (March), Foreign Direct Investment (March), GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Industrial Production (March)/ Inflation Rate (March)/ Retail Sales (March)/ Tourist Arrivals (March)

• Thailand Industrial Production (February)/ Current Account (February)/ Private Consumption & Investment (February)

• Malaysia M3 Money Supply (February)

• China Current Account Final Q4

• India Government Budget Value (February)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (March 22)/ Infrastructure Output (February)

• Pakistan Consumer Confidence (February)/ Consumer Confidence (March)

• Philippines Budget Balance (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Today is the one-year anniversary of Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich’s detention by Russia.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Turkey Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade Final (February)

• France Inflation Rate Prel (March)/ Harmonized Inflation Rate Prel (March)/ PPI (February)

• Poland Inflation Rate Prel (March)

• Slovenia CPI (March)/ Harmonized Inflation Rate (March)/ Inflation Rate (March)

• Greece PPI (February)/ Retail Sales (January)

• Italy Inflation Rate Prel (March)/ Harmonized Inflation Rate Prel (March)

• Russia Balance of Trade (February)/ Industrial Production (February)/ Retail Sales (February)/ M2 Money Supply (February)

• Ukraine Current Account (February)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nigeria Unemployment Rate Q4

• Kenya Inflation Rate (March)

Saturday, March 30, 2024

Global

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, March 31, 2024

Global

• Today is Easter Sunday.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• China NBS Manufacturing & Non-Manufacturing PMI (March)/ NBS General PMI (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Turkey holds local elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.