The Global Week Ahead

Written By Francis Kelly

March 17 - 24, 2024

This week will be quite busy politically and for the markets globally. Starting with the geopolitical outlook, EU leaders will gather for a European Council Summit this week to discuss a heavy agenda ranging from how to aid Ukraine further, the Gaza War (as Israel prepares to move militarily on Rafah, which the EU and US oppose), EU enlargement, greater EU defense cooperation and funding, migration policy, and agricultural policy (in the wake of ongoing and increasingly strident protests by farmers across the EU against climate rules). If that were not enough, EU leaders will also discuss a groundbreaking policy of taxing profits generated by almost $300 billion in frozen Russian assets.   

Also this week, the NATO Defense chiefs will meet in Germany to discuss how to get more military aid to Ukraine as the beleaguered country begins to run low on ammunition. We would note that the US Congress still has no plan to pass a $60 billion military aid package, suggesting that it will take another month (at least) before it can be done.

Meanwhile, in Asia, South Korea will host the Summit for Democracy, attended by more than 40 nations dedicated to advancing democratic principles. While the agenda focuses on how best to foster democracy for future generals, the situations in Russia, China, and the Middle East will be significant issues discussed on the sidelines.

In the United States, Congress faces yet another deadline to get appropriations bills done (by Friday) or face a partial government shutdown. 

On the global economic radar screen this week, it will be a hectic week for central banks – and perhaps a historic one, too. The Bank of Japan meets this week, and it appears they have been poised to raise rates for the first time since 2007. The US Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee meets this week (although unlikely to lower rates), and the Bank of England meets to perhaps lower rates. But that’s not all: more than a dozen other significant central banks are making interest rate decisions this week, including those of six of the ten most traded currencies. 

Regarding major economic data reports, Japan releases CPI prints, and China releases several economic data reports, which will give a good glimpse into how strong — or not — the Lunar New Year holiday was for consumers and sellers. Germany releases both the ZEW and Ifo surveys.

But, as we noted, a lot more is going on politically and economically this week. Below is our full report on what we are watching around the world this week:

Sunday, March 17, 2024

Global

  • Today is St. Patrick’s Day.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Best day ever: It’s St. Patrick’s Day, and March Madness begins.  Did you fill out your brackets?

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Maldives holds legislative elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

  

 

Monday, March 18, 2024

Global

  • The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on maintenance of international peace and security: Nuclear disarmament and non- proliferation. The Secretary-General is expected to deliver remarks.  

  • the 2024 Global Methane Forum will take place at the Palais des Nations and the Centre International de Conferences Geneva, from March 18 – 21.  Organized by the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) and the Global Methane Initiative (GMI), in partnership with the Global Methane Hub and the Climate and Clean Air Coalition (CCAC), the Forum aims to foster concrete action to cut emissions of methane. 

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Chile Current Account Q4, GDP Growth Rate Q4

  • Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity (January)

  • Canada PPI (February), Raw Materials Prices (February), 2-Year Bond Auction

  • USA NAHB Housing Market Index (March), 3 & 6-Month Bill Auction

  • Colombia Imports/Balance of Trade (January), ISE Economic Activity (January)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • The Secretary-General of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), Zhang Ming, will lead a SCO Observer Mission to Moscow.  He will meet with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov to discuss, according to the Russian Foreign Ministry, “countering growing challenges and security threats, and promoting trade, economic, cultural and humanitarian ties.”

  • The Summit for Democracy will take place in South Korea through March 20.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • New Zealand Composite NZ PCI (February), Services NZ PSI (February)

  • Japan Machinery Orders (January)

  • Singapore Non-Oil Exports (February), Balance of Trade (February)

  • China Industrial Production (January)-(February), Retail Sales (January)-(February), Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) (January)-(February), Unemployment Rate (February), NBS Press Conference, FDI (YTD) (February)

  • Malaysia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)

  • Hong Kong Unemployment Rate (February)

  • Pakistan Interest Rate Decision

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • ECB Board Member Claudia Buch participates in a fireside chat at Bankenaufsicht 2024 organized by Handelsblatt in Frankfurt, Germany.

  • Slovakia Harmonized Inflation Rate (February)

  • Spain Balance of Trade (January)

  • Euro Area Balance of Trade (January), Inflation Rate Final (February), Core Inflation Rate Final (February), CPI Final (February)

  • Germany 12-Month Bubill Auction

  • Belarus Industrial Production (February), GDP (February)

  • Poland Core Inflation Rate (January)

  • France 3,6, & 12-Month BTF Auction

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Israel Unemployment Rate (February)

  • Oman M2 Money Supply (January), Total Credit (January)

  • Qatar Inflation Rate (February)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

 

Tuesday, March 19, 2024

Global

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Presidential Primaries are held in Arizona, Florida, Illinois, Kansas, and Ohio.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • The Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee meets to the state of the economy and interest rates.  Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell gives a press conference at 2:30 p.m. on Wednesday to discuss the meeting and interest rate decision.

  • Mexico Aggregate Demand Q4, Private Spending Q4

  • Canada Inflation Rate (February), Core Inflation Rate (February), CPI Median (February), CPI Trimmed-Mean (February), Core Inflation Rate (February)

  • USA Building Permits Prel (February), Housing Starts (February), Redbook (March)/16, 52-Week Bill Auction, 20-Year Bond Auction, Net Long-term TIC Flows (January), Foreign Bond Investment (January), Overall Net Capital Flows (January), API Crude Oil Stock Change (March)/15, International Monetary Market (IMM) Date

  • Argentina Balance of Trade (February)

  • Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Bank of Japan Interest Rate Policy

  • Japan Capacity Utilization (January), Industrial Production Final (January)

  • Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision, RBA Press Conference

  • Singapore MAS 4 & 12-Week Bill Auction

  • New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index (March)/19

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • The EU General Affairs Council meets in Brussels.  Ministers are expected to discuss the situation in Ukraine, EU security and defense issues, and prospects for EU enlargement.

  • NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg will visit Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia.  

  • German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will meet Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas in Berlin, Germany.  Together they participate on an economic panel discussion economic issues.

  • German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius will attend the Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting at Ramstein Air Base, led by his U.S. counterpart, Lloyd Austin.

  • In response to ongoing demonstrations across the EU by farmers, The European Parliament’s Agriculture Committee will quiz Agriculture Commissioner Janusz Wojciechowski on the proposed measures to support farmers included in the so-called simplification package presented on 22 February. In a later debate, the Agriculture Committee will discuss the agricultural sector’s contribution to EU climate objectives with Climate Action Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra. 

Economic Reports/Events –

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • South Africa Building Permits (January)

  

 

Wednesday, March 20, 2024

Global

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • US Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision, FOMC Economic Projections

  • Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision

  • USA MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (March)/15, MBA Mortgage Applications/ Market Index/ Refinance Index/ Purchase Index (March)/15, EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change/ Gasoline Stocks Change/ Crude Oil Imports Change/ EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change/ Distillate Fuel Production Change/ Distillate Stocks Change/ Gasoline Production Change/ Heating Oil Stocks Change/ Refinery Crude Runs Change (March)/15, 17-Week Bill Auction, - 1st Yr, 2nd Yr, Current, & Longer, Fed Press Conference

  • Argentina Unemployment Rate Q4, Full Year GDP Growth 2023, GDP Growth Rate Q4

  • El Salvador Balance of Trade (February), Current Account Q4

  • Brazil Interest Rate Decision

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • New Zealand Current Account Q4

  • China Loan Prime Rate 1Y and 5Y (March)

  • Indonesia Loan Growth (February), Interest Rate Decision, Deposit Facility Rate (March), Lending Facility Rate (March)

  • Taiwan Export Orders (February)

  • India M3 Money Supply (March)/08

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • The EU Tripartite Social Summit takes place in Brussels.  The Tripartite Summit is a forum for dialogue between EU institutions at the presidential level and European social partners at the top management level.  It is co-chaired by the President of the European Council and the President of the European Commission. The participating European-level social partners include BusinessEurope, the European Trade Union Confederation (ETUC), SGI Europe (association of enterprises with services of general interest), SMEunited (association of crafts and SMEs in Europe), and CEC European Managers.  The agenda will cover an industrial strategy complementing the Green Deal with quality jobs at its heart, a single market that delivers for enterprises and workers, and tackling skills and labor shortages.

  • The EU – Ukraine Association Council will meet in Brussels to discuss the implementation of the Association Agreement since the start of the Russian war of aggression, the implementation of the European Commission Ukraine country report recommendations, and the issue of reconstruction and reforms in Ukraine, including EU financial assistance.

  • German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will meet Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte in Leipzig, Germany.  Rutte is seeking to become the next Secretary General of NATO and wants Scholtz’s support.

  • EU President Ursula von der Leyen meets with UN Secretary-General António Guterres for a working lunch to discuss the war in Gaza, opening a humanitarian line to Palestinian refugees, as well as the situation in Ukraine.

Economic Reports/Events –

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Kuwait Inflation Rate (February)

  • Israel Manufacturing PMI (February), Inflation Expectations (March)

  • Oman Inflation Rate (February)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • South Africa Inflation Rate (February), Core Inflation Rate (February), Retail Sales (January)

  • Ivory Coast Inflation Rate (February)

 

 

Thursday, March 21, 2024

Global

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Today is Afghanistan Day (Nowruz), celebrating Afghan culture globally.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • New Zealand GDP Growth Rate Q4, Credit Card Spending (February)

  • Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (March), RBA Woods Speech, Employment/Full-Time Employment/ Part Time Employment/ Change (February), Unemployment Rate (February), Participation Rate (February)

  • Japan Reuters Tankan Index (March), Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February), Jibun Bank Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (March)

  • India HSBC Composite/ Manufacturing/ Services PMI Flash (March)

  • Taiwan Interest Rate Decision, M2 Money Supply (February)

  • Hong Kong Consumer Price Index CPI (February), Current Account Q4, Inflation Rate (February)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • As part of the Euro Summit 2024, The European Council meets in Brussels through March 22.  EU national leaders will discuss the situation in Ukraine, mutual security and defense issues, and the situation in the Middle East.  They will also discuss EU enlargement, migration issues, agriculture matters, and external relations.

  • France's upper house of Parliament will vote on the ratification of the EU-Canada Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement.  The Parliament is said to be badly split as to whether to approve the deal, which was signed in October 2016.  Recent demonstrations in France by French farmers have made agreeing to any new trade deals politically radioactive.

  • The European Parliament’s Foreign Affairs Committee will debate the way forward for EU enlargement with the Foreign Affairs ministers of some member states, ahead of the 21-22 March European Council. Ministers from Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Slovenia, Denmark, Greece, Bulgaria, Croatia and Austria are confirmed for the debate.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Bank of England Interest Rate Decision

  • ECB General Council Meeting

  • ECB Board Member Claudia Buch gives an introductory statement at the Hearing of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament in Brussels, Belgium.

  • Euro Area New Car Registrations (February), HCOB Composite/ Manufacturing/ Services PMI Flash (March), Current Account (January)

  • Great Britain Public Sector Net Borrowing (February), Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks (February), S&P Global Composite/ Manufacturing/ Services PMI Flash (March),

  • France Business Confidence (March), Business Climate Indicator (March), HCOB Composite/ Manufacturing/ Services PMI Flash (March), 3 & 5-Year OAT Auction

  • Germany HCOB Composite/ Manufacturing/ Services PMI Flash (March)

  • Switzerland SNB Interest Rate Decision

  • Poland Retail Sales (February)

  • Slovenia Consumer Confidence (March), PPI (February), Unemployment Rate (January)

  • Spain Bonos Auction, Index-Linked Obligation Auction, Obligation Auction

  • Italy Current Account (January)

  • Turkey TCMB Interest Rate Decision, Overnight Lending/ Borrowing Rate (March), Foreign Exchange Reserves Mar/15

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Israel Manufacturing Production (January)

  • Lebanon Inflation Rate (February)

  • Qatar M2 Money Supply (February), Total Credit Growth (February)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Today is Namibia Independence Day, celebrating when the country gained full independence in 1990.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

 

Friday, March 22, 2024

Global

  • The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on threats to international peace and security.      

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Today is the deadline for the US Congress to approve the remaining six appropriations bills or face a partial government shutdown.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • The Federal Reserve will be holding a Fed Listens: Transitioning to the Post-Pandemic Economy Event at the Federal Reserve in Washington, D.C.  Fed Chair Jay Powell will give opening remarks followed by a panel discussion chaired by Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman entitled “Evolving Conditions for Families and Job Seekers.” This will be followed by a second panel, chaired by Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson, entitled “Industry Perspectives.”

  • Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic to participate in a moderated conversation on “Household Finance" before the 2024 Household Finance Conference organized by the Financial Services Innovation Lab at the Georgia Institute of Technology and the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

  • Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (March), Federal Tax Revenues (February)

  • Chile PPI (February)

  • Mexico Economic Activity (January), Mid-month Core Inflation Rate (March), Mid-month Inflation Rate (March)

  • Canada Retail Sales Ex Autos (January), Retail Sales (January), Budget Balance (January)

  • USA Baker Hughes Oil Rig/ Total Rigs Count (March)/22

  • Colombia Interest Rate Decision

  • Uruguay Balance of Trade (February)

  • Argentina Leading Indicator (February)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • New Zealand Westpac Consumer Confidence Q1, Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)

  • South Korea PPI (February)

  • Japan Inflation Rate (February), Core Inflation Rate (February), Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy (February), Inflation Rate (February), Foreign Bond Investment (March)/16, Stock Investment by Foreigners (March)/16

  • Australia Westpac Leading Index (February), RBA Financial Stability Review

  • Indonesia M2 Money Supply (February)

  • Taiwan Unemployment Rate (February)

  • India Bank Loan Growth (March)/08, Deposit Growth (March)/08, Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)/15

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • ECB President Christine Lagarde participates in the Euro Summit in Brussels, Belgium.

  • ECB Board Member Claudia Buch gives remarks at her farewell symposium at Deutsche Bundesbank.

  • ECB Board Member Philip R. Lane gives a policy lecture on inflation and monetary policy at Aix-Marseille School of Economics (AMSE) in Marseille, France.

  • Great Britain Gfk Consumer Confidence (March), Retail Sales (February), Retail Sales ex Fuel (February), CBI Industrial Trends Orders (March)

  • Germany Import Prices (January), Ifo Business Climate/ Current Conditions/ Expectations (March)

  • Turkey Business Confidence (March), Capacity Utilization (March), Tourist Arrivals (February)

  • Switzerland Current Account Q4

  • Greece Current Account (January)

  • Poland Unemployment Rate (February), M3 Money Supply (February)

  • Slovenia Business Confidence (March)

  • Italy BTP Index-Linked Auction, BTP Short Term Auction

  • Russia Interest Rate Decision, CBR Press Conference, Consumer Confidence Q1

  • Ireland Wholesale Prices (February)

  • Serbia Current Account (January)

  • Slovakia Current Account (January)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Jordan Industrial Production (January)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Ghana PPI (February)

 

 

Saturday, March 23, 2024

Global

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Louisiana and Missouri hold Democratic Presidential Primaries.

  • Bolivia conducts a national census.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • Slovakia holds presidential elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

 

Sunday, March 24, 2024

Global

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Today is Holi, the religious festival celebrated by Hindus and Sikhs with the throwing of coloured powder and water at fellow celebrants.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Today is the Jewish festival of Purim.  Financial markets are closed in Israel.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Israel Composite Economic Index (February)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Senegal is scheduled to hold presidential elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Francis Kelly
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