The Global Week Ahead: January 15- 22, 2023

It will be quite a busy week worldwide, both politically and economically. The World Economic Forum kicks off on Monday in Davos, Switzerland, with political and business leaders converging on the little Swiss village in the Alps for a packed agenda of meetings. There, we can expect significant addresses to be given by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, ECB President Christine Lagarde (twice), and other top leaders on pressing issues of the day.  

As the Ukraine War grinds on, Ukrainian military leaders will be warily watching as Russia begins joint air force exercises in Belarus scheduled until February 1st.  Many observers worry Belarus is being increasingly pressured by Moscow to join Russia in the war on Ukraine.

This will occur as the UK, Poland, and perhaps Germany will announce decisions this week on whether they will begin supplying Ukraine with tanks which would be a significant step up in military support for Ukrainian forces.   Meanwhile, Russia will seek to acquire new means of ramping up the carnage they are inflicting on Ukraine as Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov will host Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian in Moscow.  They are expected to discuss Iran supplying advanced ballistic missiles to Russia.

On the economic front this week, markets are watching the Bank of Japan as it meets to discuss a possible rate increase (consensus believes they will not raise rates).  Elsewhere, markets are watching as China and US report important economic data points, including China’s Q4 GDP. On top of this, it’s the heart of earnings season as numerous corporations report Q4 numbers.

There will also be a fair amount of central bank speeches this week in Europe (including the aforementioned Lagarde duel speaking events in Davos) and the US, although it is a shortened work-week (Monday being Martin Luther King Day, a federal holiday).

Here is everything we are watching in the coming week:

Sunday, January 15, 2023:

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Peru GDP (November), Unemployment (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       China is sending a high-level delegation to Sri Lanka through January 18th to discuss economic assistance to the country

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China House Price Index (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Russia and Belarus will hold joint air force exercises in Belarus. The exercises will run through February 1st.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (December), Wholesale Prices (December)

·       Israel Inflation (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, January 16, 2023:  

Global

·       The World Economic Forum begins in Davos, Switzerland, and runs through January 20th.  You can view the program agenda here.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing followed by consultations on the Middle East (Yemen).

·       The International Conference on Air Pollution and Climate Change begins in Muscat, Oman. This conference will present cutting-edge knowledge about air pollution and climate change, as well as pathways for reducing short-lived climate pollutants in the near term to safeguard human health and mitigate global warming. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Martin Luther King Day is observed in the United States, a federal holiday.  The US Congress is in recess all week and returns next week.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Canada Manufacturing Sales (November)

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japan and India will conduct their first joint fighter jet drills through January 26th.  The exercise – called “Veer Guardian 2023” was arranged at the September 2022 India-Japan “2+2” dialogue between the respective defense ministers and foreign ministers.  It is seen as part of growing mutual defense efforts by the two countries in the face of China’s growing regional military capabilities.

·       Bangladesh is bracing for nationwide anti-government strikes led by the opposition Nationalist Party.  The Nationalist Party is demanding that the government respond to 10 demands they have made, including the resignation of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China House Price Index (December)

·       Japan PPI (December), Machine Tool Orders (December)

·       India WPI Inflation (December), WPI Food (December), WPI Fuel (December) WPI Manufacturing (December), Passenger Vehicle Sales (December)

·       Australia TD-MI Inflation Gauge (December), Building Permits (November), Private House Approvals (November)

·       Indonesia Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The UK is expected to announce its decision to transfer Challenger 2 tanks to Ukraine.

·       EU President Ursula der Leyen meets with French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris.

·       EU Eurogroup meets in Brussels to get an update of Croatia’s recent changeover to the Euro, fiscal policy coordination in the Euro area, and other issues.  ECB President Christine Lagarde and ECB Board Member Fabio Panetta will participate.

·       The EU Parliament holds a plenary in Strasbourg through January 19th.

·       A European delegation will finish arriving in Lebanon to investigate claims of corruption against the country's central bank head, Riad Salameh.

·       The UK Parliament returns to session.

·       The UK High Court hears new arguments on the UK policy of sending asylum-seekers back to Rwanda.

·       Kazakhstan celebrates Independence Day, commemorating when Kazakhstan became independent of the Soviet Union in 1991.

·       Berlin Fashion Week starts and goes through January 21st.  

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB President Christine Lagarde and ECB Board Member Fabio Panetta participate in the Eurogroup meeting in Brussels.

·       Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey will testify at the UK Parliament’s Treasury Select Committee hearing on the December Financial Stability Report.

·       Germany Wholesale Prices (December)

·       France Budget Balance

·       Poland Inflation (December)

·       Hungary Construction Output (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       South Korea’s President Yoon Suk Yeol will lead a business delegation of more than 100 companies to visit the United Arab Emirates.  Yoon will also attend the 2023 World Future Energy Summit being held in Abu Dhabi.

·       Bahrain celebrates National Day, celebrating independence from Great Britain in 1971.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Budget Balance

·       Israel Unemployment (December), GDP (Q3), M1 Money Supply (December)

·       Qatar Inflation (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, January 17, 2023:

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the United Nations Peacekeeping Force in Cyprus (UNFICYP). 

·       At the World Economic Forum’s Annual Meeting in Davos, Switzerland, the United Nations-convened Net-Zero Insurance Alliance (NZIA) will launch the Alliance’s first Target-Setting Protocol. The Protocol builds on the launch of the first-ever global accounting standard to measure greenhouse gas emissions associated with insurance underwriting portfolios (“insurance-associated emissions”) developed by the Partnership for Carbon Accounting Financials (PCAF) in collaboration with the NZIA.      

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US President Biden will meet with Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte in Washington, DC. One of the key issues they will discuss is restricting critical technology exports to China.

·       US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will begin a visit to Senegal, Zambia (on the 23rd),  and South Africa (on the 25th).  Her visit, which is scheduled to conclude on January 28th,  is a follow-up to the US-Africa Leaders’ Summit held in Washington last month.  It is also seen as growing efforts by the Administration to blunt China’s growing influence in Africa.

·       The US Office of the US Trade Representative has set today as the deadline for companies and other interested parties to submit comments as part of the USTR’s statutory four-year review of the tariffs that former President Donald Trump imposed on more than $300 billion worth of Chinese goods.

·       Acting US Comptroller of the Currency Michael Hsu will give a keynote speech at the Brookings Institution in Washington DC entitled “Too Big to Manage?” on addressing the question of financial institutions becoming too big and how regulators can move to deal with the risk.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (January)

·       Canada Housing Starts (December), Inflation (December), CPI (December)

·       Colombia Industrial Production (November) Retail Sales (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       North Koreas Supreme People’s Assembly standing committee will meet to discuss the state of the country’s economy.

·       China may publish population data (to be confirmed).

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China GDP (Q4), Industrial Capacity Utilization (Q4), Industrial Production (December), Retail Sales (December), Unemployment Rate (December)

·       Japan Tertiary Industry Index (November)

·       Indonesia Retail Sales (November), Car Sales (December), Motorbike Sales (December)

·       Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence (January) Westpac Leading Index (December)

·       Singapore Non-Oil Exports (December), Balance of Trade (December)

·       New Zealand NZIER Business Confidence (Q4), NZIER Capacity Utilization (Q4), Electronic Retail Card Spending (December)

·       Sri Lanka Manufacturing PMI (December) Services PMI (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov will host Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian in Moscow.  They are expected to discuss additional Iranian military aid to Russia, including possibly providing ballistic missiles to Russia to assist in their war on Ukraine.

·       EU President Ursula von der Leyen delivers a special address at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.

·       EU Economic and Financial Affairs Council (ECONFIN)meets in Brussels to get an update on the economic and financial impact of the Ukraine War, adopt an amendment to the recovery and resilience plan of Luxembourg, and approve the conclusions of the alert mechanism report of 2023 and the annual sustainable growth survey 2023.  ECB Board Member Luis de Guindos will participate.

·       It is the beginning of Men’s Fashion Week in Paris. Good time to watch “Zoolander” again.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Board Member Edouard Fernandez-Bollo participates in roundtable via webinar organized by the Centre des Professions Financières (CPF) and the Institut français de l’audit et du contrôle internes (IFACI) 

·       Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment (January)

·       Germany Inflation Rate (December), CPI (December), ZEW Economic Sentiment (January), ZEW Current Conditions (January)

·       UK Claimant Count Change (December), Employment Change (October), Unemployment Rate (November), HMRC Payroll Changes (December)

·       Italy Inflation (December)

·       Russia Current Account (Q4)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Auto Production (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Gold Production (November), Mining Production (November)

·       Nigeria Food Inflation (December)

Wednesday, January 18, 2023: 

Global

·       The International Energy Agency releases its January 2023 oil market report.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on “the situation in the Middle East, including the Palestinian question”.

·       The United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) is organizing a mission to Poland and Ukraine, which will take place from January 18 to 23. The program includes a UNESCO training program in Warsaw for law enforcement officials from countries bordering Ukraine to fight illicit trafficking in cultural property.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu will meet with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken as the United States prepares to sell Turkey F-16 fighter jets.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       St. Louis Fed President James Bullard sits for a webcast interview with the Wall Street Journal.

·       Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan will speak at the University of Texas School of Business in Austin, Texas.

·       US PPIs (December), Retail Sales Figures (December), Redbook (January), Industrial Production (December), Manufacturing Production (December), Capacity Utilization (December), Business Inventories (November), Retail Inventories (November), NAHB Housing Market Index (January), MBA Mortgage Index Figures (January),

·       Canada PPI (December), Raw Materials (December)

·       Colombia ISE Economic Activity (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       A Russian delegation led by Minister of Energy Nikolai Shulginov will meet Pakistan's delegation for the 8th session of their intergovernmental commission in Islamabad, Pakistan.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision, BoJ Quarterly Outlook Report, Capacity Utilization (November), Industrial Production (November), Reuters Tankan Index (January), Machinery Orders (November)

·       Taiwan Unemployment Rate (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       NATO’s highest military authority, the Military Committee, will meet in Brussels.  The attendees are the Allied Chief of Defense (including, for the first time, representatives of Sweden and Finland).  The agenda covers a number of issues ranging from the Russian War on Ukraine and ongoing NATO strategic issues, including the implementation of the Concept for the Deterrence and Defense of the Euro-Atlantic.

·       German Chancellor Olaf Scholz gives a “special address” at the World Economic Forum entitled “Cooperation in a Fragmented World.”

·       The European Parliament will elect a new Vice President following the scandal and removal of former EP Vice President Eva Kaili.  Kaili, now under arrest along with three other suspects, is at the center of the ongoing “Qatargate” scandal.  They have been accused of accepting bribes from Qatar and Morocco.

·       EU President participates in the European Parliament plenary debate on the conclusions of the European Council meeting of December 15, 2022, in Strasbourg, France.

·       In the UK, the Royal College of Nursing begins a 48-hour strike.

·       In the UK, the Unison union members at the UK Environment Agency will conduct a one-day strike over pay issues.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Board Member Isabel Schnabel will participate in a meeting with the finance committee of the German Bundestag in Berlin.

·       Eurozone Inflation Rate (December), CPI (December), Labor Productivity (Q3), Construction Output (November), New Car Registrations (December)

·       Germany New Car Registrations (December

·       UK Inflation (December)k PPI (December), new Car Registrations (December), Retail Sales (December), Labor Productivity (Q3)

·       France New Car Registrations (December)

·       Italy Balance of Trade (November), New Car Registrations (December),

·       Poland New Car Registrations (December)

·       Hungary new Car Registrations (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Oman Total Credit (November), M2 Money Supply (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Inflation Rate (December), Retail Sales (November)

Thursday, January 19, 2023: 

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US Conference of Mayors holds its 91st Winter meeting in Washington, D.C.  US Secretary of State Antony Blinken will give remarks in the morning.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Federal Reserve Vice Chair Lael Brainard gives an economic outlook at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business.

·       Federal Reserve Bank of New York President & CEO John Williams speaks at the Fixed Income Analysts Society Conference in New York.

·       Boston Fed President Susan Collins will give opening remarks at the Boston Fed’s “Housing, Place, and Flexible Work: The Future of the New England Economy” conference in Boston.

·       US Jobless Claims (January 14), Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (January), Philadelphia Fed Business Conditions (January), Philadelphia Fed CAPEX Index (January), Philadelphia Fed Employment (January), Philadelphia Fed New Orders (January), Building Permits (December), Housing Starts (December)

·       Canada Wholesale Sales (November), New Motor Vehicle Sales (November)

·       Brazil Unemployment Rate (November)

·       Colombia Imports/Balance of Trade (November)

·       Argentina Balance of Trade (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Malaysia's Federal Court will hear jailed former Prime Minister Najib Razak's judicial review application challenging his August 2022 conviction.

·       Thailand will officially open the Bang Sue Grand Station, Southeast Asia’s most modern rail terminal.  It will be a key city transport hub, being the center of all 52 rail routes with connections to Thailand’s three main airports.  Going forward, it will also be a future rail line linking Kunming in China with Singapore.

·       Japan’s Aichi Prefecture officially starts campaigning for the gubernatorial seat.

·       Japan’s  Naoki Literary Award recipients to be selected. The Awards go to the best-emerging fiction writers.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (December)

·       Hong Kong Unemployment Rate (December)

·       New Zealand Food Inflation (December)

·       Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (January), Employment Figures (December)

·       Indonesia Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Lending Facility Rate (January), Deposit Facility Rate (January), Loan Growth (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov will visit Minsk, Belarus, for a joint collegium of the Russian and Belarusian foreign ministries. 

·       France is bracing for nationwide strikes by the country’s eight main labor unions over President Emmanuel Macron’s new pension reform proposal.

·       Today is the deadline to restore power-sharing in Northern Ireland after the Westminster government gave a six-week extension.

·       EU President Ursula von der Leyen meets with Portugal’s Prime Minister António Costa in Brussels.

·       ECB President Christine Lagarde participates in a panel discussion entitled "Finding Europe's New Growth" at the World Economic Forum in Davos 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Board Member Isabel Schnabel participates in a moderated webinar "Geldpolitik in Zeiten von Pandemie und Krieg" (Monetary policy in times of pandemic and war) hosted by Finanzwende e.V. 

·       Eurozone Current Account (November)

·       The German Bundesbank presents its 2022 Financial Stability Review.

·       Italy Current Account (November)

·       Spain Balance of Trade (November)

·       UK RICS House Price Balance (December)

·       Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken will visit Israel.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Inflation Expectations (December)

·       Turkey TCMB Interest Rate Decision, Overnight Lending Rate (January), Overnight Borrowing Rate (January), FX Reserves (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Building Permits (November)

·       Ghana PPI (December) 

Friday, January 20, 2023: 

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York.

·       US Existing Home Sales (December)

·       Canada Retail Sales (November)

·       Mexico Retail Sales (November)

·       Argentina Leading Indicator (December)

·       El Salvador Balance of Trade (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea PPI (December)

·       India FX Reserves (January 13)

·       Taiwan Export Orders (December)

·       Hong Kong Business Confidence (Q1), Inflation Figures (December)

·       New Zealand Business NZ PMI (December), Visitor Arrivals (November)

·       Pakistan Balance of Trade (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Ukraine Defense Contact Group will meet at the U.S. Ramstein Air Base in Germany, where a breakthrough is expected on supplying Western main battle tanks to Ukraine.

·       EU President Ursula von der Leyen receives the Members of the Committee of the Permanent Representatives of the Member States to the European Union (COREPER) for a working lunch in Brussels.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB President Christine Lagarde participates in a panel discussion entitled "Global Economic Outlook: Is this the End of an Era?" at the World Economic Forum in Davos 

·       ECB Board Member Frank Elderson gives introductory remarks virtually at the European Financial Services Roundtable.

·       Germany PPI (December)

·       UK Retail Sales (December)

·       Italy Construction Output (November),

·       Poland Employment Figures (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Tunisia holds parliamentary run-off elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Central Government Debt (December)

·       Israel Manufacturing PMI (December)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report. 

Saturday, January 21, 2023:

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

Lunar New Year is observed across East Asia.  Markets are closed in China and elsewhere in Asia.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Slovakia holds a constitutional referendum.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report. 

Sunday, January 22, 2023: 

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       China celebrates the beginning of the Year of the Rabbit.

·       Japan’s Yamanashi Prefecture holds gubernatorial elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Please let us know if you or someone you know would like to be added to our distribution list.