Recommended Weekend Reads: January 14-15, 2023

We thought you might find the following useful reading.  Let us know what you think and if you or a colleague want to be added to our distribution list.  Have a great weekend.

·       “Russia’s Rebound – How Moscow has Partly Recovered From Its Military Setbacks” by Barry Rosen, Foreign Affairs

Russian strategic decisions are finally starting to make military sense. The partial mobilization of reservists that Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered in September has strengthened Russian forces at the front. 

·       “A Journey Along Montenegro’s $1 Billion Chinese-Built Highway”  Radio-Free Europe/Radio Liberty

RFE/RL offers a brilliant photo essay of a massive new highway the Chinese recently built, starting at the Serbian/Montenegrin border and going straight to the Adriatic Sea.   Coming in as one of the most expensive highways in the world, it slices through more than 30 massive mountains, cutting travel across the country from hours to 25 minutes.  Sixty percent of the highway is either tunnels or bridges.

·       “The New Industrial Age” by Representative Ro Khanna (D-CA), Foreign Affairs

As federal funds from the CHIPS Act and other major pieces of legislation passed by Congress last year are being dispersed to encourage semiconductor companies and other critical tech industries to “re-shore” to the US, Congressman Khanna argues that new economic patriotism calls for a globalization rooted in the interests of ordinary Americans while rebalancing trade through domestic production will help lessen tensions with China.

·       “The Looming Financial Contagion” by Kenneth Rogoff, Project Syndicate

The noted professor of economics and public policy argues with inflation on the rise and the era of ultra-low interest rates over, financial markets will face a considerable stress test in 2023. While banking systems are more robust than in 2008, a real-estate slump could severely affect heavily leveraged private-equity firms, producing a systemic crisis.

·       “What Does China’s Arctic Presence Mean to the United States?” The Rand Corporation

For years, China has worked to establish footholds in the region that would give it access to rich mineral deposits and shipping lanes and a greater say in Arctic affairs. That—and a strategic presence in a region ringed by the United States and several other NATO countries. Researchers at RAND and the Swedish Defence Research Agency looked at where China operates in the Arctic, what it wants, and what that could mean for regional security.

Charts of the Week 

This week, we found two charts of particular interest. 

The first shows where everyone moved in the “Great Migration of 2021-2022.”   Most of us have heard about the big moves to Texas and Florida but what was particularly interesting was the almost equal (percentage-wise) population increases in South Dakota, Montana,

The second chart is an early sneak-peak at the most vulnerable Senate Democrats facing likely tough re-elections in 2024.  Of the 33 Senators up for re-election in 2024, 24 of them are Democrats – and several of them are from “Red” to “Very Red States” – Ohio, West Virginia, and Montana stands out as the Reddest. 

Morning Consult shows some surprising numbers to the upside for Senators Jon Tester (Montana) and Sherrod Brown (Ohio) and dismal numbers for Senators Joe Manchin (West Virginia) and recently turned Democrat to Independent Kyrsten Sinema (Arizona).  Democratic leaders have quietly been worried Tester, and Manchin might retire rather than go through a grueling re-elect.  It is still a long road until the 2024 elections, but these are likely to be the most closely watched races going forward.