Recommended Weekend Reads

Guides to Understanding Trump’s Trade and Foreign Policy, What the EU Must Do to Build Up Their Defense Capabilities, the US Workforce Challenge, and Why China Isn’t the Obvious Winner in Latin America

March 28 - 30, 2025

Understanding Trump's Trade and Foreign Policy 

• A User’s Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading System      Stephen Miran/Hudson Bay Capital

  Stephen Miran is one of President Donald Trump’s top economic advisors.  He chairs the White house Council of Economic Advisors.  He is also the author of a 41-page memo – more a blueprint -  that lays out what can be achieved by what is being billed as a “Mar-A-Lago Accord” which would revise the framework for the global financial system. 

• Trump, Strategy, and Mercantilism   School of War Podcast

  Walter Russell Mead, Alexander Hamilton Professor of Strategy and Statecraft at the University of Florida's Hamilton Center and columnist for The Wall Street Journal, joins the show to talk about the role of economic issues in Trump’s strategic views.  They discuss Mercantilism and physiocracy, the role of Silicon Valley, the dollar, coalitions, tariffs, China, and what President Trump thinks about all of it.

• Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community   Office of the Director of National Intelligence

  In this year’s public annual report – the first of the new Trump Administration and under the oversight of new DNI Tulsi Gabbard- the DNI points out the following: Both state and nonstate actors pose multiple immediate threats to the Homeland and U.S. national interests. Terrorist and transnational criminal organizations are directly threatening our citizens. Cartels are largely responsible for the more than 52,000 U.S. deaths from synthetic opioids in the 12 months ending in October 2024 and helped facilitate the nearly three million illegal migrant arrivals in 2024, straining resources and putting U.S. communities at risk. A range of cyber and intelligence actors are targeting our wealth, critical infrastructure, telecom, and media. Nonstate groups are often enabled, both directly and indirectly, by state actors, such as China and India as sources of precursors and equipment for drug traffickers. State adversaries have weapons that can strike U.S. territory, or disable vital U.S. systems in space, for coercive aims or actual war. These threats reinforce each other, creating a vastly more complex and dangerous security environment. Russia, China, Iran and North Korea—individually and collectively—are challenging U.S. interests in the world by attacking or threatening others in their regions, with both asymmetric and conventional hard power tactics, and promoting alternative systems to compete with the United States, primarily in trade, finance, and security.

The EU’s Move to Build Up Its Defense Capabilities

• Joint White Paper for European Defense Readiness 2030     European Commission

  From the paper’s introduction: The international order is undergoing changes of a magnitude not seen since 1945. These changes are particularly profound in Europe because of its central role in the major geopolitical challenges of the last century. The political equilibrium that emerged from the end of the Second World War and then the conclusion of the Cold War has been severely disrupted. However much we may be wistful about this old era, we need to accept the reality that it is not coming back. Upholding the international rules-based order will remain of utmost importance, both in our interest and as an expression of our values. However, a new international order will be formed in the second half of this decade and beyond. Unless we shape this order – in both our region and beyond – we will be passive recipients of the outcome of this period of interstate competition with all the negative consequences that could flow from this, including the real prospect of full-scale war. History will not forgive us for inaction.

• Defending Europe without the US: first estimates of what is needed    A Joint Publication of Bruegel and the Kiel Institute for the World Economy

  Europe could need 300,000 more troops and an annual defense spending hike of at least €250 billion in the short term to deter Russian aggression.  From a macroeconomic perspective, a debt-funded increase in defense spending should boost European economic activity at a time when external demand may be undermined by the upcoming trade war (Ilzetzki, 2025; Ramey, 2011), though yields and inflation may rise. Ilzetzki (2025) argued that defense spending can also positively contribute to long-term growth via innovation, but a precise quantification of such effects is still needed.

• The Case for Europe    Strategic Europe

  By choosing to vote against a United Nations resolution marking the third anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the United States seems intent on abandoning its leadership of the West after eighty years of hegemony. Europe is going through its gravest hour since the Second World War—and most Transatlanticist political leaders are starting to realize it.  At best, Europe will have to defend its territory alone and take responsibility for deterrence. At worst, it will have to fend off great powers actively seeking to subvert it as they assert their respective spheres of influence. This could involve political interference, economic coercion, and open aggression, tearing Europe apart. Europe’s choice lies in between these two scenarios. Rather than predict success or failure, it is worth outlining the building blocks that make the case for a stronger Europe possible and the pitfalls this vision could run into.  

• Germany’s big spending splurge gives EU the jitters    Politico Europe

  European Union governments have expressed fears that the radical spending plans announced by Germany’s chancellor-in-waiting will end up skewing the bloc’s single market and could give the country an unfair competitive edge. A month on from an election that made Friedrich Merz almost certainly the next leader in Berlin, the upper house of parliament on Friday approved a historic change to the country's basic law to exclude defense investment above 1 percent of economic output from the nation’s strict spending rules, along with a €500 billion fund for infrastructure and green energy, clearing the final parliamentary hurdle.  While Germany’s allies in Europe have broadly welcomed Berlin’s long-awaited loosening of the purse strings, there is a sense of unease about the impact it could have at a time when economies are still struggling to recover after the twin shocks of Covid and the Ukraine conflict, and with the looming threat of a trade war with the U.S.

• Why Europe can’t defend itself: Political fragmentation is blocking autonomy   Wolfgang Munchau/UnHerd

  Imagine a world in which Western Europe was actually able to stick it to Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump simultaneously. As if. Back in the real world, there’s a remote possibility the Europeans might get their act together sufficiently to stand up to one, or the other. But not both. They will, in classic fashion, be split. Some of the eastern European countries, the Baltic States, for example, will prioritize a push-back against Russia. Others, like France, are more concerned with driving their independence from the US. Then there is a third group that wants neither. So, where does that leave Europe? What they are agreed on is the plan is to increase military spending. The EU will follow Germany’s example and partially exempt the defense budget from the fiscal rules. But the truth is, no amount of investment will wean the EU off its American dependency any time soon. It will take decades to close the immense defense technology gap. To build entire industries from scratch takes time. You need defense companies, supply chains, and know-how. Europe is far from the cutting edge of 21st century defense technology and its expertise in that sector has been diminished since the end of the Cold War.

• Behind NATO’s 2 Percent: Measuring the True Scope of Alliance Defense Investments and the NATO Defense Deficit    Mackenzie Eaglen & Cole Spiller/American Enterprise Institute

  This working paper examines NATO’s military spending through two key lenses: how NATO allies measure defense expenditures and the strategic implications of the long-term defense deficit created by chronic underfunding. While 21 member states now meet the 2 percent of GDP benchmark, the alliance must look beyond numerical targets to assess whether these investments translate into real military capability.2 Closing NATO’s $2 trillion defense deficit requires greater transparency in accounting to allow for more complete analysis, as well as sustained increases in spending to build credible deterrence against rising threats.

The Changing US Workforce

• Shifting Immigration Toward High-Skilled Workers    Penn Wharton Budget Model

  We evaluate two immigration policies that shift 10 percent of future low-skilled immigration toward either: (i) high-skilled immigrants (“HSI”) that otherwise maintains the current share of STEM workers within the high-skilled group, or (ii) only high-skilled STEM workers (“HSI STEM”) that increases the share of STEM relative to other high-skill workers. The number of total immigrants remains the same under both policies. Both policies grow the economy, reduce federal debt, and increase wages across all income groups: lower-skilled, higher-skilled non-STEM workers, and higher-skilled STEM workers. In fact, this policy change affords the rare opportunity of a “Pareto improvement” benefitting all groups.

• Technology Adoption and the Changing Role and Background of Clerical Workers   Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

  From 1980 through 2015, the share of clerical jobs in the employed labor force declined more significantly in large and expensive cities than in smaller cities. Moreover, the remaining workers performing these occupations in large and expensive cities had, on average, higher education levels and were more likely to perform tasks usually done by managerial and professional personnel when compared to their small-city counterparts. In this Economic Commentary, we show how these patterns are related to the uneven adoption of information communication technologies (ICT) across geographies and discuss adoption’s impact on clerical jobs’ tasks and worker requirements.

• Defensive Hiring and Creative Destruction      Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde/Yang Yu/Francesco Zanetti/National Bureau of Economic Research

  America has long struggled with a lack of productivity growth despite huge investment in research and development. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde, Yang Yu, and Francesco Zanetti find that the defensive hiring of researchers by incumbent firms with monopsony power reduces creative destruction, which in turn maintains the status quo and leads to stagnant productivity growth.

The Americas 

• China Won’t Be the Obvious Winner in Latin America    Ryan Berg/Foreign Policy

  After a mere two months in office, a narrative on the Trump administration’s policy toward LAC and great-power competition has emerged: Regional influence will accrue to China at the expense of the United States because Washington appears a “bully,” has talked of reviving the controversial Monroe Doctrine, and has occasionally adopted the rhetoric of territorial expansion. A deputy assistant secretary of state in the Biden administration accused the Trump administration of shortsightedness, leading to “an opening for China, made in America.” Even a former staffer in the first Trump administration worried that the current approach to LAC “could unwittingly facilitate the extension of Beijing’s influence.” Will the Trump administration’s more assertive approach toward LAC benefit China?

• What Elections Mean for Canada and the Future of North America    Center for Strategic and International Studies

  On March 23, newly minted Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney announced snap elections for April 28, kicking off a contest to determine Canada’s future at a critical juncture. The election pits the incumbent Liberal Party, which has received a second wind since January in part due to tariffs and political threats from the United States, against the Conservative Party under the leadership of “Canada First” politician Pierre Poilievre. No matter the outcome, however, the next leader of Canada will inherit a tense relationship with the United States, public pressure to deliver economic gains, and an increasingly fraught global security environment that impinges upon Canada’s sovereignty.

Recommended Weekend Reads

The War on Ukraine, Broader Implications of the Peace Talks, Argentina’s Big Challenge, and the Future of Europe’s Security

March 14 - 16, 2025

Russia’s War on Ukraine and The Implications of a Possible Cease Fire

• The Kremlin's Balancing Act     Foreign Policy Research Institute

  Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Russian government accelerated the preexisting trend of centralizing control over regional power and economic assets.  This study explains the shift of government control, highlights instances of pushback, and identifies limitations on the Kremlin's strategy going forward.  The Kremlin's centralization drive has manifested in several ways, including tightening control over regional and municipal political institutions, expanding financial control over regional budgets and policy priorities, nationalizing and indirectly mobilizing business assets, and introducing new priorities in personnel policy.  These changes have created winners and losers, resulting in friction and resistance from regional elites who perceive their interests and autonomy as threatened. The sustainability of the Kremlin's strategy is uncertain and risks intensifying tensions and worsening government instability.

• Lessons from Minsk II for the Ukraine peace talks   Brussels Signal

  The road to peace in Ukraine is extremely difficult and perhaps also very long, despite President Trump’s initial hopes. Even agreeing an initial ceasefire in Ukraine is a tall order, as this Tuesday’s Trump-Putin phone call attests. Nonetheless, negotiations will continue, particularly as all sides – Ukraine, Russia and the US – appear committed to achieving a full peace agreement rather than merely a Korean-style ceasefire.  Yet a full peace treaty is much more considerable undertaking, and these negotiations remain overshadowed by the failure of the Minsk II Agreement – a 2015 diplomatic effort that promised peace but ultimately collapsed. The lessons of Minsk II offer sobering insights into the obstacles facing any new settlement and the structural flaws that must be avoided if a sustainable resolution is to be achieved.

• Russia’s Peace Demands on Ukraine Have Not Budged     Council on Foreign Relations

  President Trump, in his recent address to Congress, said Russia has sent “strong signals that they are ready for peace.” Is that true? Not really. The Kremlin has not budged from its maximal demands for ending the conflict, which Russian President Vladimir Putin laid out last June and includes:

  • No NATO membership for Ukraine;

  • Ukraine’s recognition of Russia’s annexation of four Ukrainian provinces (even though Russia does not physically control all the territory of three of them);

  • Ukraine’s demilitarization and denazification (code for the installation of a pro-Russia puppet in Kyiv); and

  • the lifting of anti-Russia sanctions. 

  During a visit to the Defenders of the Fatherland Foundation, Putin doubled down on that position just last week, saying that Russia does not intend to make any compromises in peace negotiations. The Russian president sees no need to make any concessions. His armies are making grinding progress on the battlefield, albeit at a heavy cost in men and materiel. The Russian economy has proven resilient to Western sanctions, growing by more than 4 percent each of the past two years. Ukraine, meanwhile, is facing severe manpower shortages, and Western support is flagging.

• Turkey in a Trump-and-Putin World    Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

  The disruptions to the world order caused by Russia and the new U.S. administration complicate Turkey’s balancing act between Moscow and the West. But these shifts could offer Ankara a chance to shape the evolving security dynamics and contribute to Europe’s stability.  Yet Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan cracked down on Turkish opposition parties this past week, arresting dozens of politicians, fearful of losing power in the upcoming elections and exposing the fragility of his government.

•  A Blueprint for a European Defense Force    Strategic Europe

  As the U.S. commitment to Europe’s security wanes and Russia’s threat to the continent grows, the need for a European defense force is becoming more pressing than ever. By expanding existing frameworks and investing in Ukraine’s defense industry, Europe can begin to take charge of its own security.

The Tariff Wars

• The Incoherent Case for Tariffs   Chad Brown/Douglas Irwin – Foreign Affairs Magazine

  Less than two months into his second term, U.S. President Donald Trump has made good—with startling intensity—on his campaign promise to impose tariffs. On inauguration day, he issued the America First Trade Policy Memorandum to review U.S. trade policy with an eye toward a new tariff regime. Over the first two weeks of February, he set in motion new duties covering nearly half a trillion dollars of U.S. imports. On March 4, he doubled the size of his already significant February tariff increase on China. Over this period, he has also announced, suspended, announced again, and suspended again 25 percent tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico. And his administration has pledged to impose reciprocal tariffs on April 2. The result has been uncertainty, chaos, and immediate retaliation from some of the United States’ biggest trade partners. All this economic upheaval raises a central question: Why is Trump so focused on tariffs? 

• Trump’s tariffs challenge India’s economic balance     The Australian Strategic Policy Institute

  US President Donald Trump’s tariff threats have dominated headlines in India in recent weeks. Earlier this month, Trump announced that his reciprocal tariffs—matching other countries’ tariffs on American goods—will go into effect on 2 April, causing Indian exporters to panic at the prospect of being embroiled in Trump’s escalating trade war. The economic impact on India, which runs a trade surplus with the US, could be significant. India exported goods worth nearly $74 billion to the US in 2024, and estimates suggest that Trump’s new tariffs could cost the country up to $7 billion annually.  But the implications could be much more far-reaching. One analysis estimates that India effectively imposes a 9.5 percent tariff on US goods, while US levies on Indian imports are only 3 percent. If Trump follows through on his pledge of full tariff reciprocity, that imbalance will vanish—along with the cost advantages many Indian exporters currently enjoy.

• Antitrust Fuels Trade Tensions    CEPA

  President Donald Trump’s tariff threats target “discrimination against American innovation,” and US legislators point to the EU’s Digital Markets Act as evidence – even as the US pursues its own tech antitrust cases.   The tensions underline a troubling reality: antitrust enforcement has become politicized, and as the Paris-based OECD Club of advanced democracies has long recognized, the politicization of antitrust enforcement makes markets less dynamic, less competitive, and less efficient, ultimately harming consumers. This outcome can be avoided if both European and American leaders depoliticize and focus enforcement on making markets work for consumers. 

• The Optimal Monetary Policy Response to Tariffs   Javier Bianchi & Louphou Coulibaly/NBER

  What is the optimal monetary policy response to tariffs? This paper explores this question within an open-economy New Keynesian model and shows that the optimal monetary policy response is expansionary, with inflation rising above and beyond the direct effects of tariffs. This result holds regardless of whether tariffs apply to consumption goods or intermediate inputs, whether the shock is temporary or permanent, and whether tariffs address other distortions.

Geoeconomics 

• Should Friday be the New Saturday? Hours Worked and Hours Wanted    National Bureau of Economic Research

  This paper investigates self-reported wedges between how much people work and how much they want to work at their current wage. More than two-thirds of full-time workers in German survey data are overworked—actual hours exceed desired hours. We combine this evidence with a simple labor supply model to assess the welfare consequences of tighter weekly hours limits via willingness-to-pay calculations. According to counterfactuals, the optimal length of the workweek in Germany is 37 hours. Introducing such a cap would raise welfare by .8-1.6% of GDP. The gains from a shortened workweek are largest for workers who are married, female, white collar, middle-aged, and high-income. An extended analysis integrates a non-constant wage-hours relationship, falling capital returns, and a shrinking tax base.

• Global Debt Report 2025   OECD

  Around 60% of the fixed-rate debt in the OECD that will mature by 2027 (approximately $9T) was issued in 2021 or earlier, before the recent tightening cycle, most likely at yields below current market rates. The weighted average YTM of the maturing debt in 2025-27 remains below 2% in all three years, [while] the average of the projected 10-year interest rate in OECD countries is expected to remain around 3.6% in 2025. The debt maturing in 2025-27 will, therefore, likely be refinanced at nearly twice the original rates. Increased borrowing needs and high borrowing costs have driven interest payments to a higher share of GDP in 2024, [contributing to] the first increase in the central government marketable debt-to-GDP ratio since 2020. The supply of bonds needing to be absorbed by the market accelerated as central banks continued to scale back their holdings. Four countries — France, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States — face heightened vulnerability, with the debt maturing by 2027 exceeding 15% of their current GDP and the average yield-to-maturity on debt issued in 2024 surpassing that of this maturing debt by over 1.5 percentage points.

Africa and Critical Minerals

• ·Zimbabwe’s lithium beneficiation policy: a catalyst for Vision 2030    ISS/Africa Futures

  As the global green energy transition gains momentum, lithium has emerged as the new gold, particularly in the automotive industry, due to its essential role in lithium-ion batteries. The demand for lithium continues to soar, and Zimbabwe stands at a competitive advantage as home to Africa’s largest lithium reserves and ranking among the world's top five in estimated deposits. If managed effectively, lithium beneficiation can drive Zimbabwe towards achieving its Vision 2030, transforming the country into an upper-middle-income economy. A fundamental aspect of this ambitious goal is attaining a GDP growth rate of 8–9% by 2030.

• Can the DRC Leverage U.S.-China Competition Over Critical Minerals for Peace?    Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

  The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) is offering the United States access to its mineral resources in an effort to ensure peace and stability in the country. The offer, made against the backdrop of U.S.-China competition over critical minerals, is designed to motivate Washington to play a decisive role in the security crisis in the eastern DRC. Unlike in 2012, when then-president Barack Obama threw his weight into pressuring Rwanda to halt its support for the M23 (March 23) rebel movement, more recent U.S. administrations, past and current, have struggled to play a decisive role in the conflict raging in the eastern DRC, where the Congolese government is battling Rwandan-backed M23/AFC (Alliance Fleuve Congo) rebels.

Latin America 

• Chevron Out, Black Market In? The Fallout of U.S. Sanctions on Venezuela Oilprice.com

  On February 26, President Trump announced his intention to end General License 41, which allowed Chevron to operate in Venezuela despite sanctions. The U.S. Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) had created a system to monitor at least part of Venezuela’s oil industry by waiving sanctions for certain American, European, and Indian companies but with strict limitations. Four corporations that were authorized by licenses or comfort letters—Chevron, Repsol, Maurel et Prom, and Eni—contributed to a production of 325,000 barrels per day (bpd) in January, to the country’s total of 1,068,000 bpd, according to PDVSA, the state-owned energy company. The big question now is will it spur a massive rise of black-market oil coming out of Venezuela?
  

•  A Key Pending Challenge for Milei’s Argentina   Americas Quarterly

  Argentine President Javier Milei campaigned on two key promises: To bring the country’s high and accelerating inflation to a halt by dollarizing the economy and closing down the Argentine central bank (BCRA) and to balance the budget by taking a chainsaw to wasteful government spending. Now, 15 months into his term in office, he has made heroic progress on the fiscal and inflation fronts. But by forsaking dollarization and keeping currency and capital controls in place, Milei has jeopardized his anti-inflationary program and discouraged a potential investment boom.

North Korea

• The North Korean tourist trap       The interpreter/Lowry Institute

  Having closed the country even more tightly during the Covid pandemic, last month, North Korea put out the welcome sign for a small group of foreign tourists from Australia, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and Canada for the first time since 2020. Yet the gates slammed shut again last week when Pyongyang announced it would grant no new tourism visas. Visitors from Russia have been allowed in since February 2024, but Chinese nationals, once North Korea’s main source of foreign tourists, have still not returned. The abrupt closure raised eyebrows, considering that North Korea’s Kim Jong-un has invested in key tourism facilities in Mount Chilbo, Mount Paektu, Mount Kumgang, and the Wonsan-Kalma resort area in preparation for the post-lockdown rebound in foreign visitors.

Recommended Weekend Reads

Business Strategy in a New Geopolitical Age, Chile’s Libertarian Presidential Candidate, One Moment and Two Speeches, Data Center Energy Demands, and What is the Mar-a-Lago Accord?

March 14 - 16, 2025

Below are our recommended reads from reports and articles we read in the last week. We hope you find these useful and that you have a relaxing weekend.   And let us know if you or someone you know wants to be added to our distribution list. 

Business Strategy in an Age of Heightened Geopolitical Risk

• How to Strategize in an Out-of-Control World       MIT Sloan Management Review

  During the past few years, company strategies have been disrupted repeatedly by major shocks like the COVID-19 pandemic, the outbreak of war in Ukraine and the Middle East, and breakthroughs in generative AI. In the first months of 2025, a stream of political surprises has been impacting company agendas — and further upheavals seem likely.   This turbulence is having a real impact on business: Our analysis of nearly 7,000 organizations over a 20-year time frame shows that variance in company profitability can increasingly be attributed to factors that lie beyond the company and its industry. (See “What Shapes Profitability?”) Contextual factors — like geopolitics, technology, and climate — now account for 43% of the variation in the net profit margins of public corporations.

The Indo-Pacific

• Conversations: China’s Naval Flotilla and Australia’s Response    Lowry Institute Podcast

  Defence analyst Marcus Hellyer talks with the Lowy Institute’s Sam Roggeveen about the unprecedented appearance of Chinese warships off Australia’s east coast. What message was Beijing sending? How well did Australia’s defense force perform in response? And what are Australia‘s future options with the United States in retrenchment?

• One Moment, Two Speeches   Center for Strategic and International Studies

  Two weeks ago, the world’s two most powerful countries witnessed a rare moment of symmetry. On March 4th  at 9:00 pm US EST, President Donald Trump strode into the Capitol to give his second administration’s first address to a joint session of Congress. Meanwhile, on the other side of the planet, at 9:00 am Beijing time, Chinese Premier Li Qiang was just finishing up his speech summarizing the annual Government Work Report(GWR) to the National People’s Congress. Both are two countries’ key national annual addresses in which the executive reports on the state of the country to the legislative branch. This side-by-side moment highlights not only major differences in the political systems and political theater, but also some surprising similarities in substance as well.

• Trump-ism and East Asia    Global Policy/Durham University

  Alastair Newton argues that Donald Trump’s abandonment of the US-led international order and efforts to reshape global trade and finance do not bode well for economies in East Asia which may find themselves forced by Washington into a Chinese sphere of influence as part of a grand bargain with Beijing.

Latin America

• The Radical Libertarian Reshaping Chile’s Presidential Race   Americas Quarterly

  He’s been called the “Gabriel Boric of the right”—maybe because, like Chile’s young president, he wears a beard and made a name for himself criticizing the country’s political establishment. But Johannes Maximilian Kaiser Barents-von Hohenhagen, 49, objects to the comparison.“ Kaiser, who proudly describes himself as a “reactionary,” is now taking a turn in the spotlight after a recent poll showed him tied for the lead in October’s presidential election. He is the latest right-wing populist in Latin America to channel widespread frustration with crime, immigration and politics as usual, although his story has some distinctly Chilean twists.

•  Inside a Mexican Cartel ‘Extermination’ Camp: Ovens, Shoes, and Teeth    Washington Post

  For months, the tips had been appearing on a Facebook page. There was a mass grave hidden in a rural village outside Guadalajara, in western Mexico, the messages said. Mexico has grappled for years with a crisis of disappearances, with more than 110,000 people reported missing. Relatives of the disappeared have unearthed hundreds of graves filled with corpses. This seemed like another. But the people who ran the Facebook page — a group in Jalisco state who search for the missing — were puzzled. After getting more anonymous tips, Indira Navarro, head of the group, and dozens of other victims’ relatives arrived on March 5 at an abandoned ranch outside La Estanzuela and started poking around. They dug up three underground ovens. They found hundreds and hundreds of singed bone shards — from skulls, fingers, teeth. It was what Mexicans call an “extermination camp.” But the image that’s really stunned Mexicans was of the shoes. There were piles of them — well over 200. The camp is a sign of how much criminal groups have penetrated the Mexican economy. They don’t just traffic drugs to the United States; they extort businesses, “tax” migrant smugglers, and run vast networks of contraband goods, from gasoline to wood.  Navarro’s group believes the ranch in La Estanzuela was a recruiting and training center for one such crime group. The area is dominated by one of the country’s largest cartels, Jalisco New Generation (CJNG).

American’s View of Currencies

• Cryptocurrency Ownership among U.S. Households     Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

  Cryptocurrency has become more prevalent since it first entered the global economy. However, no consistent measurement of cryptocurrency ownership among American households has emerged. This blog post uses what data are available through the Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF) to estimate the distribution of cryptocurrency ownership in the U.S., finding that roughly 4.3% of Americans held such assets.

• Thoughts for Your Penny?    Hoover Institution

  One of the concepts you come across in a well-taught monetary economics course is the idea of seigniorage. An online dictionary does a pretty decent job of defining it: “The profit made by a government by issuing currency, especially the difference between the face value of coins and their production cost.” Although the definition highlights coins, the concept applies to paper money also.  The US government makes a pretty penny (pun intended) on seigniorage. It’s not as much as it used to be because more and more people use credit cards and even cryptocurrency to buy goods and services. Still, it’s a good amount.  The biggest gain from seigniorage is on the $100 bill. Printing one costs the federal government just 9.4 cents.

  So, when the feds spend this $100, they make a nice profit of $99.90. Not bad. Printing a $1 bill costs the feds 3.2 cents. So even on a $1 bill, the feds make 97 cents.  But minting small coins loses money for the feds. In its 2024 Annual Report, the US Mint reports the cost of producing each coin denomination. The cost of producing a penny was $0.03. In other words, the cost of producing a penny was three times the value of the penny. Interestingly, the feds went underwater even on the nickel, whose cost, at $0.11, was over twice the value of the nickel. That’s why I stated earlier that the federal government should stop producing nickels also. It isn’t until you get to the dime that you find a coin that the feds make money on. Interestingly, the cost of producing a dime, at $0.045, is less than the cost of producing a nickel.

the Race for Critical Minerals and the Growing Electrical Demand for Data Centers

• Who is Paying for all that data center power?   Volts Podcast/Substack

  In this episode, Harvard Law's Eliza Martin and Ari Peskoe unpack how data centers' skyrocketing electricity demand could leave ordinary customers subsidizing Big Tech's power bills. Most chilling is the potential alliance between utilities and tech giants that threatens to derail much-needed utility reforms while entrenching fossil-fueled infrastructure.

• The Potential for Geothermal Energy to Meet Growing Data Center Electricity Demand   Rhodium Group

  Next-generation geothermal energy has a number of advantages in meeting growing electricity demand from data centers. This report estimates how much of this demand could potentially be served by geothermal over the next decade.

• Why the U.S. Keeps Losing to China in the Battle Over Critical Minerals    Wall Street Journal

  The U.S.’s desperate need for critical minerals—which include resources such as nickel, lithium and cobalt in addition to graphite—has been underscored by the Trump administration’s aggressive push for greater access in Ukraine and Greenland, rattling allies. In December, Beijing said it would ban certain mineral exports to the U.S. and conduct stricter reviews of graphite sales, in response to U.S. restrictions on semiconductor exports to China.   Yet with its thumb on many of the best resources, China can dictate prices. Washington’s policy flip-flops keep blowing up miners’ plans. And many Western mining companies struggle to navigate higher-risk countries where critical minerals—all needed for green technologies and national defense—are prevalent, leaving them flat-footed when unrest erupts. 

The Mar-a-Lago Accord: What Is It?  Will It Happen?

• What is the Mar-A-Lago Accord?              Apollo Academy/Apollo Capital Management

  The always brilliant Torsten Slok explains is brilliantly: The US dollar is the global reserve currency because America is the most dynamic economy in the world, and the US provides stability and security. As a result, there is upward pressure on the US dollar because everyone wants to own the world’s safest asset.  This safe-haven upward pressure on the dollar overwhelms the negative impact on the dollar coming from the US current account deficit. With safe asset flows putting constant upward pressure on the dollar, there is a need for a deal—a Mar-a-Lago Accord—to put downward pressure on the US dollar to increase US exports and bring manufacturing jobs back to the US. The Mar-a-Largo Accord is the idea that the US will give the G7, the Middle East, and Latin America security and access to US markets, and in return, these countries agree to intervene to depreciate the US dollar, grow the size of the US manufacturing sector, and solve the US fiscal debt problems by swapping existing US government debt with new US Treasury century bonds. In short, the idea is that the US provides the world with security, and in return, the rest of the world helps push the dollar down in order to grow the US manufacturing sector

•   Meeting in Mar-a-Lago: is a New Currency Deal Plausable?              Atlantic Council

  In 1985, finance ministers from France, Germany, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States came to an agreement in the Plaza Hotel in New York City to intentionally devalue the US dollar. In the five years leading up to the Plaza Accord, the US dollar had doubled in value, threatening to upend global trade and destabilize the international financial system. Today, Washington is once again chattering about the possibility of a currency deal. This time, the venue may move south for what Trump’s incoming chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, Stephen Miran, described as a “Mar-a-Lago Accord.” In a September report, Miran declared the overvaluation of the US dollar responsible for the “roots of economic discontent.”
  

• Mar-a-Lago Accord, Schmar-a-Lago Accord  Steven Kamin/Mark Sobel/Financial Times

  In recent weeks, the buzz has been mounting about a new American plan — a “Mar a Lago Accord” — to upend the global monetary system. We can only hope it remains idle chatter. In brief, based on a detailed discussion paper by CEA Chair nominee Stephen Miran, the accord would have America’s trading partners help weaken the dollar and commit to providing low-cost, long-term financing to the US government, enforced by the threat of higher tariffs or removal of security guarantees.   Intriguingly, there has been no announcement by the Trump administration or even a tweet by Trump, but Miran’s paper — along with various utterances by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent — have led Wall Street observers to believe such an initiative is indeed in the offing. And that’s too bad, because a Mar-a-Lago Accord would be pointless, ineffectual, destabilizing, and only lead to the erosion of the dollar’s pre-eminent role in the global financial system.

Recommended Weekend Read

The Long-Run Consequences of Sanctions on Russia, North Korea’s High Casualty Learning Curve, Economic Security and Industrial Policy, and Real-Life Grand Theft Auto

February 28 - March 2, 2025

The Ukraine War

• Long-Run Consequences of Sanctions on Russia  David Baqaee & Hannes Malmberg / National Bureau of Economic Research

  This paper examines the long-run economic consequences of Western sanctions on Russia. Using a new framework for balanced growth path analysis, we find that the long-run declines in consumption are significantly larger when capital stocks are allowed to adjust --- 1.4 times larger for Russia and 2.2 times larger for Eastern Europe. This is contrary to the common intuition that long-run effects should be milder due to greater adjustment opportunities. In our model, Russian long-run consumption falls by 8.5%, Eastern European consumption by 2%, and Western countries' consumption by 0.3% in response to sanctions. The model also reveals important distributional effects: as capital adjusts, Russian real wages fall more than rental prices in the long run. These findings show that accounting for capital adjustment is quantitatively important when analyzing trade sanctions.

• The Ukraine Reparation Loan Solution   Hugo Dixon & Lee Buchheit/American Enterprise Institute

  Vladimir Putin will not agree to a reasonable ceasefire with Ukraine so long as he believes he will win a war of attrition. Making sure that Ukraine has a war chest to outlast Russia is therefore key to getting it a good deal.  Given America’s unwillingness to continue funding Ukraine and Europe’s fiscal constraints, the best source of cash is Russia’s $300 billion in frozen assets, the lion’s share of which is in Europe. The “reparation loan” idea is an innovative way to mobilize these funds for Kyiv’s benefit without confiscating them. Europe, which balked at the reparation loan idea of outright seizure, is warming to the idea. If European governments back this plan, it will help get them a seat at the peace talks that Donald Trump has started.  Threatening to use the assets in this way will give Ukraine and its allies leverage in negotiations with Russia—and will be part of a back-up plan if Putin refuses a reasonable deal.

• North Korea’s Military Intervention in Kursk: A High Casualty Learning Curve   38 North

  On February 8, North Korea’s (Democratic People’s Republic of Korea or DPRK) Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un issued his strongest statement of support yet for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.  While it appears as if North Korea is staying the course, its military performance thus far should give it room for pause. During the first three months after their arrival in October 2024, North Korea lost 40 percent of its 11,000-strong force contingent. An estimated 1,000 of those troops perished while 3,000 more were too severely injured to continue fighting.  North Korea’s heavy casualties can be attributed to their unfamiliarity with high-intensity frontline combat, technological shortcomings and morale crises. Despite this troika of countervailing forces, North Korea’s security partnership with Russia will likely continue to strengthen.

• The Maritime War in Ukraine: The Limits of Russian Sea Control?   The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies

  At the start of the Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the primary maritime basins of the war were under the firm grip of the advancing force. Throughout the previous decade, Russian authorities had sought to reaffirm the country’s sea control in the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov. But by November 2024, Ukrainian forces estimated Russian naval losses to include 28 warships and small boats, and one submarine.  How did this reversal of fortunes happen? Russia had overwhelming capabilities and was fighting against a country with virtually no navy to speak of. How did Russia lose the battle for sea control?

Geoeconomics

• Beyond the Data: China’s Economy with Leland Miller    China Considered Podcast with Elizabeth Economy

  In a wide-ranging conversation, Dr. Elizabeth Economy and Leland Miller talk about his experiences running China Beige Book, his insights on the Chinese economy, and conclude with a discussion about the Trump Administration’s trade policy.  Miller discusses the early skepticism surrounding the China Beige Book and the process of transforming it into a valuable tool that gathers data from across the Chinese economy while serving as an independent “check” to the Chinese government. He provides insight into the methodology used, from conducting thousands of surveys within China, to looking at labor, manufacturing, and market data which altogether provide a unique view of the Chinese economy and at times, run against the consensus. The two then transition to a conversation on the Trump Administration, having a nuanced discussion on how tariffs and a reshaping of US trade policy affect both the domestic and global economy.

• Economic Security and New Industrial Policy   Asian Economic Policy Review

  Abstract: The paper analyzes the emergence of Japan's economic security strategy to address the risks of weaponized interdependence in a context of heightened geopolitical tension. We detail the rapid institutionalization of economic security measures through the adoption of an Economic Security Promotion Act and ongoing reforms in areas such as foreign direct investment screening and export controls. We find, however, that Japan has made little headway in reducing its dependence on China for critical products, and export controls have had ambiguous trade effects. We discuss the role of the private sector in economic security and find significant divides by firm size on the uptake of new measures to address supply chain vulnerabilities and the protection of sensitive technologies. We examine the new industrial policy on semiconductors and point to the exigencies of success in fostering cutting-edge technologies. Our conclusion identifies policy challenges going forward and offers possible solutions.

• Is inflation still slowing? Early 2025 data pivotal to outlook   Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

  January inflation data were stronger in 2023 and 2024 than forecasters expected, even after more encouraging results had been reported for the ends of 2022 and 2023. Rather than reflecting seasonal adjustment difficulties, this pattern may be caused by a large share of firms changing prices at the start of a new year.  If this is the case, first-quarter inflation data may exhibit greater persistence and sensitivity to swings in the business cycle. Whether early 2025 monthly inflation rates are similar to late 2024 or a repeat of the previous years’ surprises will be key to assessing the underlying momentum of inflation ahead

• An Evaluation of World Economic Outlook Forecasts: Any Evidence of Asymmetry?  International Monetary Fund

  Using a large cross-country dataset covering over 150 countries and more than 10 macroeconomic variables, this study examines the consistency of IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) forecasts with the full information rational expectations (FIRE) hypothesis. Similar to Consensus Economics forecasts, WEO forecasts exhibit an overreaction to news. Our analysis reveals that this overreaction is asymmetric, with more measured response to bad news, bringing forecasts closer to the FIRE benchmark. Moreover, forecasts align more closely with FIRE hypothesis during economic downturns or when a country is part of an IMF program. Overreaction becomes more pronounced for macroeconomic variables with low persistence and for forecasts over longer horizons, consistent with recent theoretical models. We also develop a model to explain how state-dependent nature of attentiveness may drive this asymmetric overreaction.

•  The Impact of Generative AI on Work Productivity    Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economy Blog

  Generative artificial intelligence (AI) has rapidly emerged as a potentially important workplace technology. In an earlier blog post, we discussed results from the first nationally representative U.S. survey of generative AI adoption, conducted in August 2024. We showed that 28% of all workers used generative AI at work to some degree. We ran our survey again in November 2024 and found that usage rates were fairly stable between August and November. In this blog post, we leverage a novel question in the November survey to provide an estimate of potential aggregate productivity gains from generative AI.

Americas 

• How Does Latin America and the Caribbean View the Ukraine Conflict After Three Years of War?  Ryan Berg/Center for Strategic and International Studies

  Three years into the full-scale war between Russia and Ukraine, the conflict appears at an inflection point. The new U.S. administration of President Donald Trump has pledged to end the fighting and take the first steps toward negotiations with Russia. U.S. allies in Europe and beyond have, in turn, found themselves taken by surprise and decried what they see as a U.S. posture that is overly favorable to Moscow and potentially disastrous for Kyiv. For countries in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), a region which has, with few exceptions, sought to avoid taking strong positions on the conflict, the prospect of a ceasefire or peace agreement raises new questions, as well as opportunities for the region to assert itself on the global stage if it can take them.

• With ELN Offensive, Colombia’s Security Crisis Has Come Roaring Back   World Politics Review

  Colombia now faces the worst security and humanitarian crisis it has seen in recent years, leading President Gustavo Petro to declare a state of emergency. Human rights organizations have raised concerns about the ELN’s conflation of civilians and EMB combatants. Indeed, it appears that the guerilla has especially targeted social activists and community leaders as well as those demobilized under the 2016 peace agreement. 
  

• IMF Loan to El Salvador Raises Transparency Concerns  Center for Strategic & International Studies

  In December 2024, El Salvador and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) reached a staff-level agreement for a $1.4 billion loan. The agreement, which outlines key policy commitments and structural reforms, remains subject to approval by the IMF Executive Board before the funds can be disbursed. However, concerns persist among civil society organizations and broader segments of the Salvadorean public that approval of an arrangement with the IMF could enable continued democratic backsliding and allow Nayib Bukele to further consolidate his authoritarian grip. The IMF Executive Board can help mitigate such concerns by enhancing transparency and accountability in the IMF-supported program. As a first step, including the following considerations into the IMF program would strengthen democratic norms and the rule of law in El Salvador, especially in the areas of governance and anti-corruption. Similarly, by improving consultation and encouraging communication with and the involvement of civil society actors, the IMF team, management, and the board would support broader public buy-in and strengthen program implementation.

Global Crime

• Grand Theft Auto: Real Life   Bloomberg/Business Week

  When a car is stolen in the US, there’s a good chance that the thief is a teenager, and that the vehicle will end up in western Africa.  Nowhere is international stolen-car traffic more robust than in the trade from the eastern US to ports in West Africa. With long-established routes hauling millions of shipping containers each month, car thieves have become bold in their efforts to slip stolen vehicles into this flow of legitimate commerce.  Used-car brokers in West Africa know what models their customers will snap up, so they call US-based thieves to beef up inventory of highly desirable models – send orders for what they want to the US.   All told, there were 1,020,729 car robberies in the US in 2023, the latest annual figure from the nonprofit National Insurance Crime Bureau.

Recommended Weekend Reads

The Power Requirements for AI Growth in the U.S., The Future of the USMCA, How Vietnam is Being Impacted By U.S. – China Trade Tensions, and How Russia Sees Trump’s Bid to Buy Greenland

February 7 - 9, 2025

Please find below our recommended reads from reports and articles we read in the last week.  We hope you find these useful and that you have a relaxing weekend.   And let us know if you or someone you know wants to be added to our distribution list.

Energy Requirements for Growing AI Capability

• AI’s Power Requirements Under Exponential Growth   Rand Corporation

  Larger training runs and widespread deployment of future artificial intelligence (AI) systems may demand a rapid scale-up of computational resources (compute) that require unprecedented amounts of power. In this report, the authors extrapolate two exponential trends in AI compute to estimate AI data center power demand and assess its geopolitical consequences. They find that globally, AI data centers could need ten gigawatts (GW) of additional power capacity in 2025, which is more than the total power capacity of the state of Utah. If exponential growth in chip supply continues, AI data centers will need 68 GW in total by 2027 — almost a doubling of global data center power requirements from 2022 and close to California's 2022 total power capacity of 86 GW. 

The Western Hemisphere

• The Future of the USMCA Peterson Institute for International Economics

  Since 2020, the last year of President Donald Trump’s first term in office, the often-quarrelsome trade relations among the three major countries of North America have been governed by the United States-Mexico-Canada trade agreement (USMCA). The pact must be renewed in 2026, but Trump has threatened withdrawing and imposing tariffs on Canada and Mexico, leaving the future of relations with two of the most important US trading partners uncertain. This guide explains why the agreement is under scrutiny, what’s at stake under different scenarios, and possible paths forward for negotiators if the current crisis is defused. This page will be updated as the trade deal is subjected to a new round of disputes and possible adjustments in President Trump’s second term.

• Sheinbaum Isn’t Tempering Her Ambitions for Mexico’s Economy   World Politics Review

  Last month, President Claudia Sheinbaum unveiled “Plan Mexico,” an economic and development roadmap that aims to boost the Mexican economy through new public and private investments in a range of sectors, and new development-friendly policies. Among its principal aims are to create 1.5 million jobs in advanced manufacturing, increase investment as a proportion of GDP by 4 percent and grow Mexico’s economy from the 13th largest in the world currently to 10th by 2030.  The plan is undoubtedly ambitious and comes at a time when the Mexican economy faces significant headwinds and uncertainty amid the threat of tariffs from the United States, as well as an overall deceleration of the economy, which grew at a modest pace of 1.8 percent in 2024, below the average of 2.4 percent for Latin America

• Canadian Tariffs Will Undermine U.S. Mineral Security    Center for Strategic and International Studies

  As the United States races to reduce its reliance on China for minerals vital for national, economic, and energy security, tariffs with Canada may drastically undermine these efforts. Canada is the biggest source of the United States mineral imports, providing key sources of uranium, aluminum, nickel, steel copper, and niobium. To put it into perspective, in 2023, Canada accounted for $47 billion of United States mineral imports. China followed with $28.3 billion. The consequences of tariffs would be particularly profound for the defense industry, nuclear energy, and heavy manufacturing. A 25 percent tariff on Canadian mineral imports could cost U.S. off-takers an additional $11.75 billion—a figure that would increase as base metal and uranium prices recover. Canada would likely adopt retaliatory tariffs, as they did when Trump imposed Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from Canada in 2018 and 2020 (backing down both times). In 2023, the United States sent $30.7 billion in minerals to Canada. The retaliatory tariffs could lead Canadian firms to pay an estimated additional $7.6 billion in tariffs, encouraging them to turn to other import sources for off-take, further undermining U.S. firms.

• What Trump’s Trade War Would Mean, in Nine Charts   Council on Foreign Relations

  Although President Trump’s threated tariffs on Canada and Mexico have been delayed 30 days, what he has proposed could upend U.S. trade. These nine charts show what’s at stake, what comes next, and why it matters.

• Trump’s Greenland Play: The View From Moscow   The National Interest

  The Russia-U.S. relationship (or lack thereof) has long dominated Arctic geopolitics. Geography makes the two neighbors and stakeholders sharing the challenges of a warming region. President Trump’s enduring interest in acquiring Greenland injects further potential geostrategic challenges in the region’s icy arena. When the idea was floated during his initial term in office, the immediate response from Russian leadership, state-operated media, and the public was a flood of memes.  The second time around, however, Russia’s domestic discourse has a more strategic flavor. Discussions now appear to focus less on the “novelty” of such an acquisition and more on understanding the “objectives.” Three potential scenarios for U.S.-Greenland relations are being debated in Moscow in terms of the strategic implications for Russia.  

Indo-Pacific

• Factors Shaping the Future of China's Military    Rand Corporation

  China's population is declining, which will cause problems for China but not necessarily for the PLA. Fertility patterns in China are similar to those observed in other countries. This suggests that revoking the one-child policy will continue to have a smaller effect on population size than the Chinese government may have assumed, and that China's population will continue to shrink in the future. Despite this stark change, China's youth population will remain more than three times the size of the United States' youth population in the near term. China's current challenges include how to sustain economic growth as the economy matures and the population ages. Although demographic patterns in China are similar to those seen in other countries, comparisons should be made with caution; China's immense size means that small within-country changes could have large global impacts. The PLA's primary demographic challenge—which includes cultural, social, and political components—will be whether it can build and develop the type of military that Xi envisions.

• The Hoover Institution’s Survey of India      Hoover Institution/Stanford University

  In this comprehensive volume, the authors offer a panoramic and analytical overview of developments in multiple policy arenas in India over the past year while simultaneously providing appropriate historical context. The range of policy issues covered includes politics, demography, the economy, foreign policy, health, education, science, energy, and defense. For each chapter, specialists share historical background, the state of current policy choices, and likely future trends.

• China Teeters Ever Closer to a “Lost Decade”        Hinrich Foundation/Stewart Paterson

  Aggressive economic stimulus measures dished out by China’s financial regulators are doing little to revive a stagnating economy. The decline in the efficiency of Chinese investment has led to a capital stock that is now bloated relative to the returns that it generates, threatening a full-scale financial crisis. As Beijing tries to avoid a Japan-style ‘lost decade’ of growth, the government doesn't appear able to come up with new ideas to solve its conundrum.

• Trade Policy and Jobs in Vietnam: The Unintended Consequences of US-China Trade Tensions  International Monetary Fund

  “We use the US-China tariffs of 2018-19 as an exogenous shock to export opportunities in Vietnam to identify how trade policy affects job creation. Using a difference-in-differences framework, we first show that US tariffs on China increased the range of products exported by Vietnam to the US in the two years after the hikes. We then show using firm level data that this expansion in export opportunities led to job creation. Around 5% extra jobs were created in firms hit with average tariffs above 15%. Results point towards this effect being driven mostly by female employment.”

• China and the Future of Global Supply Chains     Rhodium Group

  In this study, the Rhodium Group reviews China’s role in four major sectors—apparel, consumer electronics, PV, and autos—over the past decade, then consider four plausible scenarios to 2030 and their implications for China’s future role in global trade and investment patterns.

Russia’s War on Ukraine 

• What the End of Ukraine Gas Transit Means for Kyiv, Moscow, and Europe   Carnegie Politika

  At 8 a.m. on January 1, 2025, the supply of Russian gas crossing the Ukrainian border on its way to Europe was turned off, ending a sixty-year era.  The response to the shutoff was notably calm considering that in 2009, a two-week halt in Russian gas supplies to Europe via Ukraine caused panic and a large-scale crisis. This time around, gas prices in Europe rose slightly, and only Moldova had real problems.  But what longer term does it mean for the EU, Ukraine, and Moscow?

Recommended Weekend Reads

Why Trump Is Focused on the Panama Canal, America’s Data Center Hotspots, How Iran Lost Before It Lost, The Four Main Groups Opposing Xi Jinping, and Should We Believe the Economic Data?

Please find below our recommended reads from reports and articles we read in the last week.  We hope you find these useful and that you have a relaxing weekend.   And let us know if you or someone you know wants to be added to our distribution list.

Americas

• Panama: From Zoned Out to Strategic Opportunity   Ryan Berg/Center for Strategic and International Studies

  Since his election in November 2024, President Donald Trump has staked out strong positions on the importance of the Western Hemisphere to the United States’ national security interests. A secure, prosperous, and free Western Hemisphere underpins U.S. geopolitical and economic success. Panama is the most strategically significant geography in the Western Hemisphere. With 40 percent of U.S. container traffic passing through the Panama Canal, it rightfully drew President Trump’s attention. Trump has highlighted concerns about the status quo regarding the disposition of the canal, its operation, and People’s Republic of China (PRC)–owned ports dominating the approaches. This commentary will not relitigate the merits of the 1977 Carter-Torrijos treaty, sovereignty, or transit rates but rather highlight the strategic importance of Panama, legitimate concerns over Beijing-owned ports, and the need for sustained diplomatic engagement and U.S. private sector investment.

• Trump’s Panama Canal threat revives memories of 1989 US invasion  Financial Times

  With US President Donald Trump this week threatening to “take back” the Panama Canal, residents who survived the battles 35 years ago are angry that they are once again at the whim of their country’s main ally. “The invasion overthrew the military dictatorship of General Manuel Noriega, who was captured, flown to the US and jailed on drug trafficking charges. Panama has been a democracy and staunch US ally ever since.

• Will Trump Focus on the Western Hemisphere?    The Net Assessment Podcast

  The hosts get together to talk about the second Trump administration’s agenda in the Western Hemisphere. What interests does the United States have in Latin America? Should the United States be pushing back on China’s activities in the region? If so, what carrots and sticks can the United States offer countries there? And will the administration officials eager to focus on the region be able to sustain that focus, when so many other parts of the world are competing for U.S. attention?

• It’s Time for a U.S.-Greenland Free Association Agreement  Kaush Arha/Alexander Gray/Tom Dans  National Interest

  American security interests and Greenland’s economic aspirations necessitate an institutional partnership between the two. Greenland, an autonomous territory of Denmark, is part of North America in terms of aspiration and geography. It is high time Greenland’s position in North American orbit was cemented. As the world’s largest island atop the North Atlantic, it is an indispensable U.S. ally in the most proximate theatre between the United States and its NATO allies and the Russia-China authoritarian advance. American investments and markets are essential catalysts to turbocharge Greenland’s economic growth and prosperity and ensure its continued alignment with NATO as its place within the Kingdom of Denmark evolves in the years ahead.  It is time for a US-Greenland Free Association.

• America’s data center job hot spots   Axios

  President Trump has announced his support for Stargate, a massive $500 billion AI infrastructure project which, when you break it down, it all about building more data centers.  But where are the data center job hotspots in America?  Axios breaks it all down.

Middle East

• How Iran Lost Before It Lost: The Roll Back of Its Gray Zone Strategy  War on the Rocks

  “Today, you can get in a car in Tehran and get out in the Dahia, Beirut.” Five years and two months after Gen. Qasem Soleimani made this statement, the Islamic Republic of Iran is in retreat. Iran’s air and ground lines of supply to Lebanon now go through Sunni-dominated Syria, where the Assad regime recently crumbled. Even if Iran could more easily get to Lebanon, Hizballah is the weakest it has been in over a generation, having been relentlessly battered by Israel. In the words of one high-ranking commander in Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps: “We lost, we badly lost.”  Iran’s ability to deter and wage war in recent decades was largely through gray zone methods. And the structures, resources, and allies that allowed it to do this are now in tatters. But the erosion of Iran’s gray zone strategy was already happening when Assad was still in power and Hizballah loomed over Israel as a fearsome threat. Iran’s economic dysfunction and political disarray prevented it from building and sustaining resilience. This analysis highlights how Iran’s economic malfeasance, fueled by internal divisions among government stakeholders, has undermined its geopolitical ambitions and prevented it from converting regional influence into sustainable economic leverage, marking a potential turning point in its regional strategies.

  Indo-Pacific

• 2025 could be the tipping point for India’s economic aspirations  OMFIF

  Amid the multiple global shifts taking place today, India stands at a critical juncture. The world’s most populous democracy faces a turbulent landscape of geopolitical rivalries, technological shifts and the urgency of climate action. The question remains: will global economic forces propel India toward leadership, or will they impede its ascent?

• The Four Main Groups Challenging Xi Jinping   The Jamestown Foundation

  Chinese President Xi Jinping faces challenges to his authority from four main groups: 1) retired party elders such as Li Ruihuan and Wen Jiabao; 2) princelings, especially those based overseas; 3) military leaders, such as Zhang Youxia; and 4) parts of the middle and entrepreneurial classes who are voicing their discontent.  Xi is unlikely to be overthrown or face a coup, but his ability to force through his agenda may be reduced.  Indicators that Xi is embattled include his absence from chairing two recent high-level meetings, references to “collective leadership” the PLA Daily newspaper, and an adjustment to PRC diplomacy to a more conciliatory approach, especially toward the United States.  This apparent reduction in power could be a result of the country’s bleak economic situation, which Xi’s policies from last year have not resolved.

• China's Economic, Scientific, and Information Activities in the Arctic  Rand Corporation

  How might China's scientific, information, and commercial activities in the Arctic contribute to the country's broader security goals by enabling the collection of intelligence, allowing access to critical infrastructure, or providing other types of military advantages? China's activities in the Arctic have increased, and China's overall approach to strategic competition, which fuses the public with the private and the civilian sphere with the military, has heightened U.S. concerns that China might be on its way to becoming a security and military actor in the Arctic and that Russia is enabling this pathway. In this report, the authors present an analysis of China's economic, scientific, and information activities in the Arctic and call special attention to the intelligence collection and military risks that they might present, including the threat signals for these risks. The authors explore five categories of activities: natural resource exploitation, knowledge development, access to infrastructure, data transmission, and public diplomacy.

• From Fast Lane to Gridlock: Have Chinese Car Exports Peaked?   Rhodium Group

  China’s auto industry has been a success story in recent years, with car exports emerging as a bright spot in an otherwise slowing economy. Between 2021 and 2024, the number of cars shipped from China surged by 300%, propelling China past Japan to become the world’s largest car exporter by units. However, this rapid growth now faces significant challenges. Trade barriers and outright bans in major markets like the US threaten to stall export momentum. Slumping export growth will put pressure on Chinese automakers, potentially leading to industry consolidation. But incumbent carmakers shouldn’t celebrate too much—even with slower export growth, Chinese carmakers are transforming into formidable global competitors in the auto market.

Geoeconomics

• How German Industry Can Survive the Second China Shock   Sander Tordoir/Brad Setser  Centre for European Reform

  Industrial production in the EU’s largest economy has been declining for over five years, a source of profound angst in a country where manufacturing contributes around 5.5 million jobs and 20 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). Germany is starting to realize that China’s new automotive, clean technology and civil aviation industrial base directly competes with Germany’s manufacturing foundation. China’s macroeconomic imbalances now directly infringe on German industrial interests. Germany, with its low debt levels and endangered industrial base, has both the policy space to act and the most to lose if it does not. But it cannot act alone against the new Exportweltmeister. As Henry Kissinger once quipped, Germany is “too big for Europe and too small for the world.”

• Use of Artificial Intelligence and Productivity: Evidence from Firm and Worker Surveys   RIETI Discussion Paper Series

  Abstract: With the rapid diffusion of artificial intelligence (AI), its effects on economic growth and the labor market have attracted the attention of researchers. However, the lack of statistical data on the use of AI has restricted empirical research. Based on original surveys, this study provides an overview of the use of AI and other automation technologies in Japan, the characteristics of firms and workers who use AI, and their views on the impact of AI. According to the results, first, the number of firms using AI is increasing rapidly and firms with a larger share of highly educated workers have a greater tendency to use AI. Robot-using firms are also increasing, but the relationship between their use and workers’ education is weakly negative, suggesting that the impact on the labor market is different for each technology. Second, AI-using firms have higher productivity, wages, and medium-term growth expectations. Third, AI-using firms expect that while it will increase productivity and wages, it may decrease their employment. Fourth, at the worker level, more-educated workers are more likely to use AI, suggesting that AI and education are complementary. Currently, AI may favor high-skill workers in the labor market. Fifth, workers who use AI evaluate their work productivity to have increased by approximately 20% on average, suggesting that AI could potentially have a fairly large productivity enhancing effect.

• Should We Believe the Economic Data or Americans “Lyin” Eyes?  The Answer is Yes  Scott Winship/American Enterprise Institute Center on Opportunity and Social Mobility

  Many Americans are convinced the economy is ailing and that life is financially tougher today than a decade—or a generation—ago. Social media posts wax nostalgic for a long-lost era when all single breadwinners allegedly could afford a home and two cars for a family of four. Everyone seemingly knows someone who did everything they were supposed to do but is now stuck with six figures of student loan debt and a string of gig economy jobs. So, are Americans “right to believe their lyin’ eyes,” as Cass claimed in a recent op-ed titled, “Three Cheers for Economic Pessimism”? This formulation begs the question of whether American beliefs about the economy conflict with objective measures. Cass and the declensionists are no more reliable guides to those beliefs than accurate interpreters of economic data. What Americans tell surveyors is consistent with the objective data, for the most part. There has been no long-term decline in economic conditions.

• The Upcoming Trump Tariffs: What Americans Expect and How They Are Responding  Olivier Coibion/Yuriy Gorodnichieknko, Michael Weber

  Abstract: In a recent survey, we asked Americans to tell us about what they thought would happen under Trump’s tariff policies and how this might affect their decisions. The results point toward widespread anticipation of tariffs being imposed on our trading partners, especially China, with significant expected passthrough into the prices of both imported and domestically produced goods and a general acknowledgment that American consumers will bear an important share of the cost of tariffs. In response to higher future tariffs, many Americans, and particularly Democrats, report that they would increase their purchases of foreign goods in anticipation of the upcoming tariffs and higher prices, while simultaneously trying to save more in the face of higher uncertainty about future policies. Managers’ report that their firms would become more likely to raise prices, change their mix of products and seek out alternative suppliers as the rise in tariffs approaches.

Recommended Weekend Reads

How Much Will GLP-1s Disrupt the Economy?; The Impact of Trump’s Trade Policy on Exchange Rates; and China, India, and the US in 2025 

January 3 - 5, 2025

Please find our recommended reads from reports and articles we read in the last week.  We hope you find these useful and that you have a relaxing weekend.   And let us know if you or someone you know wants to be added to our distribution list.

The Economics of GLP-1s and Aging

• Ozempic economics: how GLP-1s will disrupt the economy in 2025   Catherine Rampell/Washington Post

  A new technology is disrupting the economy. Even experts don’t entirely understand how it works, its full range of uses and what its unintended consequences could be. No, it’s not artificial intelligence; I’m talking about weight-loss drugs. With adult obesity rates falling last year for the first time in more than a decade, drugs such as Ozempic and Zepbound are already reshaping Americans’ waistlines. Now, they’re poised to reshape the entire economy, too.  As of May, roughly 1 in 8 American adults had tried GLP-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1s for short). This percentage has almost certainly grown since then, as telehealth companies, “medi-spas” and compounding pharmacies have aggressively marketed GLP-1 prescriptions. We’re only just beginning to learn the full universe of effects for this class of drugs. Originally developed to treat Type 2 diabetes, GLP-1s were soon discovered to be effective in treating obesity and managing weight loss. Now there’s an ever-growing list of other potential uses (on- and off-label), including for treating heart disease, sleep apnea, Alzheimer’s, substance abuse and maybe even gambling addiction.

• Will weight-loss drugs lead to upheaval in the sugar market?  While many traders have brushed off concerns, the potential impact is clear   Financial Times

  The health risks of too much sugar have been made clear, but the billion-dollar global market to supply it is thriving. Sales of sweet treats remain strong, and waistlines keep expanding. Could weight-loss drugs now succeed where governments, scientists and doctors have failed: crushing demand for sugar?  So-called glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1s) contained in such drugs as Wegovy, Mounjaro and Ozempic curb users’ appetites and are being hailed as game changers for tackling obesity and potentially a range of other conditions, from diabetes to addiction. They could also lead to an upheaval in sugar markets.

• The No-Hunger Games: How GLP-1 Medication Adoption is Changing Consumer Food Purchases   Sylvia Hrstakeva/Jura Liakonyte, & Leo Feler, Cornell College of Business Research Paper

  Abstract: We examine how consumers modify their food purchasing behavior after adopting appetite-suppressing GLP-1 receptor agonists, such as Ozempic and Wegovy. Utilizing a unique dataset linking survey responses on medication adoption and timing with transaction data from a representative U.S. household panel, we document the prevalence, motivations, and demographic patterns of GLP-1 adoption, including off-label use. Households with at least one GLP-1 user reduce grocery spending by approximately 6% within six months of adoption, with higher-income households reducing spending by nearly 9%. These reductions are driven by significantly larger decreases in purchases of calorie-dense, processed items, including a 11% decline in savory snacks. In contrast, we observe directional increases in nutrient-dense purchases, such as yogurt and fresh produce. We also examine food-away-from-home spending at limited-service establishments, such as fast-food chains and coffee shops, finding reductions at breakfast and especially during dinner times. Our findings highlight the potential for GLP-1 medications to significantly reshape consumer food demand, a trend with increasingly important implications for the food industry as adoption continues to grow. 

• On the Limits of Chronological Age  Rainer Kotschy/David E. Brown/Andrew Scott – National Bureau of Economic Research

  Abstract: Analysis of population aging is typically framed in terms of chronological age. However, chronological age itself is not necessarily deeply informative about the aging process. This paper reviews literature and conducts empirical analyses aimed at investigating whether chronological age is a reliable proxy for physiological functioning when used in models of economic behavior and outcomes. We show that chronological age is an unreliable proxy for physiological functioning due to appreciable differences in how aging unfolds across people, health domains, and over time. We further demonstrate that chronological age either fails to predict economic variables when used in lieu of physiological functioning, or that it predicts additional effects on economic behavior and outcomes that are largely unrelated to physiological aging. Continued reliance on chronological age as a proxy for physiological functioning might impede the ability of societies to fully harness the benefits of increasing longevity.

  Trump’s Trade Policy and Exchange Rates

• Tariffs and Exchange Rates (and Stephen Miran)  Stan Veuger/American Enterprise Institute

  In a recent policy paper, Stephen Miran – who was recently nominated by President-elect Trump to serve as Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors – discussed at some length the incidence of tariffs. Miran’s objective is to convince readers that tariffs are not as harmful as is often argued. He argues that to fully understand the impact of a tariff on domestic consumers, we cannot limit ourselves to an analysis of what happens to domestic prices. We also need to consider what happens to the exchange rate.  Veuger argues that this needs to be considered in more concrete terms, using as a scenario the US imposing a 50% tariff on washing machines from Europe. It has become common for commentators to suggest, Veuger argues, that this will mean US importers will pay 50% more for washing machines, and this price increase is passed on to US consumers. How does the analysis change if the euro depreciates by 5% as a result of the tariff, because demand for imports from Europe has gone down? Assuming euro-denominated prices do not change, US importers will now pay 45% more for washing machines, not 50%. But the currency depreciation affects all imports, so US importers will now pay 5% less for bananas.  Veuger says this has (at least) five implications which he goes through in his commentary.

• Currency Wars and Trade   Kris James Mitchener & Kirste Wandschneider/National Bureau of Economic Research

  The Great Depression is the canonical case of a widespread currency war, with more than 70 countries devaluing their currencies relative to gold between 1929 and 1936. What were the currency war’s effects on trade flows? We use newly-compiled, high-frequency bilateral trade data and gravity models that account for when and whether trade partners had devalued to identify the effects of the currency war on global trade. Our empirical estimates show that a country’s trade was reduced by more than 21% following devaluation. This negative and statistically significant decline in trade suggests that the currency war destroyed the trade-enhancing benefits of the global monetary standard, ending regime coordination and increasing trade costs.

China, India, and the U.S in 2025

• After the Fall: China’s Economy in 2025   The Rhodium Group

  China’s 2024 claim that GDP growth was on track to meet high targets was impossible to reconcile with increasingly frantic efforts to prop up a flagging economy all year long. Collapsing property construction slowed growth to a crawl in 2022 and 2023, and in 2024 the spillover from real estate sidelined local government investment and consumption as well.  By our estimates, China’s GDP growth in 2024 improved modestly to around 2.4% to 2.8%, well below than official claims of nearly 5%. If it stimulates domestic demand with some urgency and ramps up debt, we think China could get to 3-4.5% growth in 2025, reaching the high end of that range only if everything falls in Beijing’s favor. But that is the very top of—or above—the potential growth ceiling until Beijing fixes long-festering structural problems.

• The US And China In Indian Grand Strategy   Tanvi Madan/ India’s World Indian policymakers have recognized that China and the U.S. are among the most—if not the most—consequential countries for India’s interests. They have thought about how China (the near behemoth) and the U.S. (the far behemoth) could and would affect, in both, positive or negative ways, India’s quest for security, prosperity, status and autonomy.   The roles Indian leaders have envisioned for Beijing and for Washington in their strategy have neither been static nor de-linked from each other. The roles China and the U.S. have ended up playing have depended on several factors, including the dynamics between them that affected their view of India. That, in turn, has shaped New Delhi’s options as it sought to achieve its objectives.  
  

• The Challenges Behind China’s Global South Policies   Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

  At the G20 Summit in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, China unveiled eight initiatives to support the Global South, including advancing technology connectivity and cooperating on poverty reduction, food security, and climate change. China’s initiatives came as no surprise. As its tensions with the Global North intensify—particularly in areas of economic competition, technological rivalry, and security issues such as the Russia-Ukraine war—the Global South, with approximately 85 percent of the world’s population, assumes great significance in China’s foreign policy. Facing a weak domestic market, increasing trade restrictions from the West, and growing tensions with the United States, China seeks to mobilize support from the Global South to counterbalance the West in economic, security, and ideological challenges. However, China’s Global South policy is increasingly confronted by its limits in trade and investment and its self-deceiving security-nexus approach. 
  

• Americans Predict Challenges in 2025, With a Few Bright Spots: Political conflict, economic difficulty, global discord, growing deficit expected  Gallup

  Americans foresee a somewhat challenging year ahead for the country, based on their predictions for various aspects of U.S. affairs and daily life. Majorities of U.S. adults think 2025 will be a year of political conflict, economic difficulty, international discord, increasing power for China and Russia, and a rising federal budget deficit.  However, there is at least some optimism for 2025, as 66% of U.S. adults expect gains in the stock market, 54% think there will be increasing or full employment, and 52% predict reasonable price growth. Meanwhile, Americans are essentially tied in their projections for what 2025 will hold when it comes to the United States’ power in the world, the number of labor strikes, taxes and crime rates.

Recommended Weekend Reads

Germany’s Century-Long Re-Armament Challenge, How the EU Needs to Deal With Industrial Policy,  Looking at Argentina President Milei’s Economic First Year, and The Return of Economic Statecraft

Please find below our recommended reads from reports and articles we read in the last week.  We hope you find these useful and that you have a relaxing weekend.   And let us know if you or someone you know wants to be added to our distribution list.

We hope you have a joyful Christmas and a happy Hanukkah!  We’ll be back next Friday with our next set of recommended weekend reads.

The Future of Europe 

• Fit for War in Decades: Europe’s and Germany’s Slow Rearmament vis-a-vis Russia   Kiel Institute for the World Economy

  War is back in Europe, and as it becomes long-lasting, the question of armament gains central importance. This report finds that Russian military-industrial capacities have been rising strongly in the last two years, well beyond the levels of Russian material losses in Ukraine. Meanwhile, the build-up of German capacities is progressing slowly. We document Germany’s military procurement in a new Kiel Military Procurement Tracker and find that Germany did not meaningfully increase procurement in the one-and-a-half years after February 2022 and only accelerated it in late 2023. Given Germany’s massive disarmament in the last decades and the current procurement speed, we find that for some key weapon systems, Germany will not attain 2004 levels of armament for about 100 years. When taking into account arms commitments to Ukraine, some German capacities are even falling.

• Industrial Policy in Europe: A Single Market Perspective    International Monetary Fund Working Papers

  European countries are increasingly turning to industrial policy to address the challenge of geopolitical fragmentation, enhance productivity, and accelerate the green transition. Well-targeted industrial policy has the potential to correct market failures and support production efficiency by exploiting scale effects and internalizing knowledge externalities. But even the most carefully designed unilateral industrial policies risk generating negative production externalities in other countries, and, under certain conditions, may not even be welfare-enhancing for the implementing country. The reason is that negative externalities of unilateral industrial policy can drive European and international production patterns away from underlying comparative advantages, create regional or global over-supply, and result in changes in terms of trade that reduce domestic welfare. This suggests significant benefits from coordination. Structural modeling and case studies show that a coordinated approach within the European Union and with international trading partners on a narrowly defined and carefully designed set of industrial policies could unlock untapped benefits. Closer European integration would facilitate the adjustment of firms and workers to coordinated and well-targeted industrial policies and amplify their benefits.

The Americas

• Milei's Economics: The First Year and the Challenges Ahead   Santiago Afonso & Sebastian Galiani/SSRN

  President Javier Milei's first year in office rightly prioritized two fundamental issues: chronic fiscal deficits and economic regulations driven by rent-seeking groups. While achieving the most aggressive fiscal consolidations on record, the administration has heavily relied on inflation-driven cuts to social spending and public investment rather than on structural reforms. Despite a significant deregulation effort, limited congressional support has hindered more comprehensive reforms. Although President Milei remains strongly committed to the program implemented, the sustainability of these measures remains uncertain. As the administration approaches the 2025 midterm elections, its ability to maintain public support while managing potential currency pressures will be crucial for implementing deeper structural changes and avoiding the fate of previous reform attempts.

• Latin America and the Caribbean in 2025: Ten Predictions to Shape the Year Ahead   Atlantic Council

  2024 was a transformative year for Latin America and the Caribbean. Elections brought some surprises, but the region also bucked the global trend as continuity was the theme.  But what might be in store for Latin America and the Caribbean in 2025?  How might the incoming Trump administration engage with the region? Can economies across the hemisphere grow beyond current predictions? How will leaders address security challenges? Might new tech hubs emerge? The Atlantic Council offers a fun quiz where you can see their predictions for 2025 and see if you agree.
  

• Why a Normalization Strategy With Venezuela Is Not Viable  Americas Quarterly

  In less than a month, Nicolás Maduro is set to begin a third term as Venezuela’s president, even though vote tallies demonstrate that opposition candidate Edmundo González won the election by a landslide.  Although the whole international community has an important role in holding Maduro and his elite accountable and supporting the Venezuelan people, all eyes point toward one country: the U.S. The return of Donald Trump to the presidency has triggered expectations of a return to the “maximum pressure” strategy of his first term. In contrast, many recent commentaries warned about the grave consequences of a return to that policy, suggesting instead a continuation of the sanction-easing measures taken under the Biden administration.   But neither a return to 2019 nor normalizing relations with Maduro will create favorable conditions for a democratic transformation in Venezuela, especially considering the strong grassroots movement that coalesced to back González. New circumstances demand a new strategy.
  
  

  Geopolitical Strategy and Economic Statecraft

• The Price of American Retreat: Why Washington Must Reject Isolationism and Embrace Primacy   Senator Mitch McConnell (R-KY)/Foreign Affairs

  When he begins his second term as president, Donald Trump will inherit a world far more hostile to U.S. interests than the one he left behind four years ago. China has intensified its efforts to expand its military, political, and economic influence worldwide. Russia is fighting a brutal and unjustified war in Ukraine. Iran remains undeterred in its campaign to destroy Israel, dominate the Middle East, and develop a nuclear weapons capability. And these three U.S. adversaries, along with North Korea, are now working together more closely than ever to undermine the U.S.-led order that has underpinned Western peace and prosperity for nearly a century. Trump would be wise to build his foreign policy on the enduring cornerstone of U.S. leadership: hard power. 

• Economic Statecraft is Back.  Here’s Why It Matters   Bain Capital Group

  As geopolitical tensions rise and multilateralism declines, nations are increasingly using trade and economic policies to advance foreign policy goals, complicating the global business landscape.  Nations are negotiating a tapestry of new rules among smaller groups of allies, implementing sanctions and restrictions that impact firms around the world, scrutinizing inbound and outbound investments, and taking more extreme trade measures against geopolitical rivals.  Winning in this new business environment has come to mean taking advantage of, defending against, or working around new rules and regulations. Yet most companies are only able to react to change.  Companies need strong in-house capabilities to monitor developing geopolitical risks, understand the implications for their businesses and supply chains, and better prepare for whatever comes next.

  Economics

• Federal Reserve Structure, Economic Ideas, and Banking Policy During the “Quiet Period” in Banking   Michael Bordo & Edward Prescott/National Bureau of Economic Research

  Abstract: We evaluate the decentralized structure of the Federal Reserve System as a mechanism for generating and processing new ideas on banking policy in the 1950s and 1960s. We document that demand for research and analysis was driven by banking industry developments and legal changes that required the Federal Reserve and other banking regulatory agencies to develop guidelines for bank mergers. In response to these developments, the Board and the Reserve Banks hired industrial organization economists and young economists out of graduate school who brought in the leading theory of industrial organization at the time, which was the structure, conduct, and performance (SCP) paradigm. This flow of ideas into the Federal Reserve from academia paralleled the flow that was going on in monetary policy and macroeconomics at the time and contributed to the increased professionalization of research at the Federal Reserve. We document how several Reserve Banks, particularly Boston and Chicago, innovated by creating dissertation support programs, collecting specialized data, and creating the Bank Structure Conference, which became the clearinghouse for academic work on bank structure and later for bank risk and financial stability. We interpret these examples as illustrating an advantage that a decentralized central bank has in the production of knowledge.
  

• Political Power and Market Power   Bo Cowgill, Andrea Prat & Tommaso Valletti / National Bureau of Economic Research

  Abstract: Brandeis (1914) hypothesized that firms with market power will also attempt to gain political power. To explore this hypothesis empirically, we combine data on mergers with data on lobbying expenditures and campaign contributions in the US from 1999 to 2017. We pursue two distinct empirical approaches: a panel event study and a differential exposure design. Both approaches indicate that mergers are followed by large and persistent increases in lobbying activity, both by individual firms and by industry trade associations. There is also weaker evidence for an association of mergers with campaign contributions (PACs). We also find that mergers impact the extensive margin of political activity, for example, by impacting companies’ choice to establish their first in-house lobbying teams and/or first corporate PAC. We interpret these results within an oligopoly model augmented with endogenous regulation and lobbying.

• Gambling Away Stability: Sports Betting Impact on Vulnerable Households  Scott Baker/Justin Balthrop/Mark Johnson/Jason Kotter/Kevin Pisciott for the National Bureau of Economic Research

  We estimate the causal effect of online sports betting on households' investment, spending, and debt management decisions using household transaction data and a staggered difference-in-differences framework. Following legalization, sports betting spreads quickly, with both the number of participants and the frequency of bets increasing over time. This increase does not displace other gambling or consumption but significantly reduces savings, as risky bets crowd out positive expected value investments. These effects concentrate among financially constrained households as credit card debt increases, available credit decreases, and overdraft frequency rises. Our findings highlight the potential adverse effects of online sports betting on vulnerable households.

• View of U.S. Healthcare Quality Declines to 24-Year Low   Gallup

  Americans' positive rating of the quality of healthcare in the U.S. is now at its lowest point in Gallup’s trend dating back to 2001. The current 44% of U.S. adults who say the quality of healthcare is excellent (11%) or good (33%) is down by a total of 10 percentage points since 2020 after steadily eroding each year. Between 2001 and 2020, majorities ranging from 52% to 62% rated U.S. healthcare quality positively; now, 54% say it is only fair (38%) or poor (16%). As has been the case throughout the 24-year trend, Americans rate healthcare coverage in the U.S. even more negatively than they rate quality. Just 28% say coverage is excellent or good, four points lower than the average since 2001 and well below the 41% high point in 2012. 

Recommended Weekend Reads

Implications for the Middle East Post-Assad, Latin America is About to Become a Major Priority for Trump, Where is India Going? And The Looming U.S. Tax & Budget Battle

December 13 - 15, 2024

Please find below our recommended reads from reports and articles we read in the last week.  We hope you find these useful and that you have a relaxing weekend.   And let us know if you or someone you know wants to be added to our distribution list.

Post-Assad Syria and Implications for the Rest of the Middle East 

• Khamenei Loses Everything    Eliot Cohen/The Atlantic

  When Hamas’s Yahya Sinwar launched Operation Al-Aqsa Flood against Israel on October 7, 2023, he intended to deal a decisive blow against a powerful nation-state—and he succeeded. But the state his attack has devastated turned out not to be Israel, but Iran, his key sponsor.
  

• In Post-Assad Middle East, Iran’s Loss Is Turkey’s Gain  Foreign Policy

  The cataclysmic events of the last few weeks in Lebanon and Syria—from Israel’s decimation of Hezbollah to the fall of the Assad regime—have opened a new chapter for the Middle East. The hope may be that the collapse of Iran’s so-called axis of resistance in the Levant augurs a period of peace and stability in the region. The more likely outcome, however, is an intensification of regional competition to fill the vacuum left by the diminishment of Iran and its allies. The collapse of Hezbollah changed the balance of power between Iran and Israel, and the fall of Bashar al-Assad has further weakened Iran. However, the broader consequence is a change in the balance of power between Turkey and everyone else.

• Lines on a 1916 map may not keep Syria together   Australian Strategic Policy Institute

  Hayat Tahrir, al-Sham (HTS) has just taken Damascus. However, the capture of Damascus will be just the beginning to a massive change in the balance of power in the Middle East and perhaps the world.  The boundaries of Syria were set following the collapse of the Ottoman Empire - lines on the map drawn Mark Sykes and Georges Picot in a secret agreement in 1916, known as the Picot-Sykes Agreement.  Like many European borders drawn before and after the First World War, lines on maps did not match the population already present.

• What's next for Syria's devastated economy?     Deutsche Welle

  Syria's economy was worth $67.5 billion (€63.9 billion) in 2011 — the same year that large-scale protests broke out against President Bashar Assad's regime, which sparked a rebel insurgency that escalated into a full-blown civil war. The country was placed 68th among 196 countries in global GDP rankings, comparable to Paraguay and Slovenia.  By last year, the economy had fallen to 129 in the league table, having shrunk by 85% to just $9 billion, according to World Bank estimates. That put the country on par with the likes of Chad and the Palestinian Territories. Almost 14 years of conflict, international sanctions and the exodus of 4.82 million people  — more than a fifth of the country's population — has taken its toll on what was already one of the poorest nations in the Middle East.

Latin America

• Latin America Is About to Become a Priority for U.S. Foreign Policy  Foreign Policy

  Donald Trump’s second presidency seems destined to focus more attention on Latin America than any U.S. administration in perhaps 30 years, including the incoming president’s first term. The reason is straightforward: Trump’s top domestic priorities of cracking down on unauthorized immigration, stopping the smuggling of fentanyl and other illicit drugs, and reducing the influx of Chinese goods into the United States all depend heavily on policy toward Latin America.
  

• Political Risk and Resource Nationalism in Latin American Mining and Minerals  Baker Institute for Public Policy

  South American economies now figure prominently in yet a new round of natural resource pursuits, focusing attention on minerals to support technologies bundled into the “energy transition” notion, a shift from fossil fuels with broad decarbonization and “net zero” imperatives. A question is whether a better job can be done to realize and distribute economic benefits from businesses that will continue to be characterized by sharp commodity cycles and robust international competition.  The energy transition paradigm differs from past cycles in that governments and industry are under extreme pressure to demonstrate that mining and processing can also be decarbonized.  Taken all together, the energy transition minerals “rush” appears to be creating expectations that could increase political and country risk factors across the region, invoking “resource nationalism” tendencies. How resource nationalism risks are defined, how these risk factors materialize, and how they might manifest across countries distinctive in traditions and languages will drive future results. These questions are the main focus of our paper.

• Javier Milei’s Argentina in 6 Charts    Gallup

  At the one-year mark of Javier Milei’s presidency, Gallup data show that his “shock treatment” appears to be working in terms of public opinion. Argentines feel more optimistic about the economy and more confident under Milei’s government.  However, many long-standing challenges remain, and people continue to struggle to meet basic needs and have a dim view of the current job market.

•   What is the future of democracy in Colombia? Analysis of the Tensions Between the Branches of Power   Colombia Risk Analysis

  Colombia is no exception to a global context marked by a significant decline in confidence in democracy and its institutions. President Gustavo Petro, through a confrontational and alarmist narrative, has further strained the system of checks and balances. While his rhetoric aims to mobilize a social base to support his transformative political agenda, it has also generated uncertainty about institutional stability and democratic equilibrium, impacting public perception of the political system’s functionality. In this context, and with an eye toward 2026, the potential rise of new populist leaders presents an additional challenge. Such leaders often advocate for reforms that weaken institutions by diminishing their independence or capacity for action.

India

• India Will Carve Its Own Path   Foreign Affairs

  For more than a decade, the United States’ Asia policy has been consumed with one issue: the rise of China.  But China is not the only rising power in Asia. The continent is also home to India: another nuclear-armed country with a huge population, army, and economy. And like China, India has a regional reputation for hegemonic behavior. Yet the United States hardly considers the possibility that India might pose a challenge of its own. Instead, American officials have reached out to India as a partner and encouraged its rise, hoping New Delhi will amass enough power to counterbalance Beijing. They seem to want India to become a regional power, perhaps even something akin to a “third pole” in the global order.  American officials should consider a more complex strategy.  Should India acquire the heft to become, as U.S. officials hope, a true counterbalance to China, it will likely also consider itself a counterbalance to the United States. In short, a tripolar world, with India as the third pole, will not strengthen Washington’s or Beijing’s hand. Instead, it will produce a more unstable global dynamic.

• Where’s the Indian Economy Headed?    Dereck Scissors/American Enterprise Institute

  Optimism inside and outside India over the country’s economic performance is overdone. Recent quarters of fast official gross domestic product growth were accompanied by weak international competitiveness, fiscal irresponsibility, and low employment quality.  For the longer term, India’s performance is decent but far from transformative. Talk of becoming rich by mid-century clashes with being by far the poorest among large economies and catching up much slower than is possible.  The central question is why this is so. India claims a young labor force will carry it to preeminence. The labor force isn’t utilized properly, with tens of millions stuck on farms because laws discourage hiring and agricultural efficiency. This depresses export gains and investor interest. India’s demographic window is not indefinite, and its leaders are fiddling. 

The Coming Battle Over U.S. Tax and Budget Policy 

• CBO’s Analysis Shows Importance of Fiscally-Sustainable Tax Reform   Kyle Pomerleau/American Enterprise Institute

  Last week, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released a new macroeconomic analysis of how the expiration of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA)’s individual provisions impacts their baseline. They found that the expiration would result in economic output to rise in the United States by the end of the next decade. This implies that if lawmakers were to extend these expiring provisions, it would be a negative for the US economy in the long run. This analysis highlights how important it is for lawmakers to approach TCJA as an opportunity to reform the tax code in a fiscally sustainable manner.

• Principles-Based Illustrative Reforms of Federal Tax and Spending Programs  Penn Wharton Budget Model

  Expanding federal debt presents an opportunity to rethink U.S. federal fiscal policy while growing the economy and enhancing social insurance. This study offer illustrative fundamental reforms of federal tax and spending programs consistent with standard design principles that have emerged over time in the field of public economics. Specifically, the study analyze 13 major tax and spending reforms that include a full accounting of their budgetary and economic interactions, arguably one of the most ambitious computational public finance experiments performed to date.  Over the next 30 years, relative to current law, these reforms: (i) reduce federal budget deficits by 38 percent; (ii) grow the capital stock by 31 percent, GDP by 21 percent, and wages by almost 7 percent; (iii) reduce health insurance premiums by 27 percent; (iv) produce almost universal health insurance enrollment along with improvements in average health and productivity; (v) reduce old-age poverty; and (vi) reduce carbon emissions, relative to current law. These changes improve the welfare of many current and all future generations, especially future lower-income households who gain the equivalent of $300,000 in lifetime value from the reforms.

Recommended Weekend Reads

China’s Economic Spillovers to Emerging Markets, Does the U.S. Really Face an “Axis” of Enemies”? And the Growing Asymmetric Threat to Undersea Communication Cables

November 29 - December 1, 2024

Geoeconomics

• China’s Financial Spillovers to Emerging Markets  Banco de España

  This paper analyzes the financial spillovers of shocks originating in China to emerging markets. Using a high-frequency identification strategy based on sign and narrative restrictions, we find that equity markets react strongly and persistently to Chinese macroeconomic shocks, while monetary policy shocks have limited or no spillovers. The impact is particularly strong in Latin American equity markets, with the likely channel being the effect of shocks in China on international commodity prices. These effects extend to various financial variables, such as sovereign and corporate spreads and exchange rates, suggesting that macroeconomic shocks in China may have implications for economic cycles and financial stability in emerging markets.
  
  

• The Puzzle of Multinationals’ Profits: Why Tax Havens Yield Higher Returns  Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis On the Economy Blog

  A striking pattern emerges when examining the returns that U.S. multinational companies generate on the assets they invest across different countries: Investments in tax havens consistently yield returns of 8% to 17%, while investments in other G7 economies (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the U.K.) yield more modest returns of 4% to 9%. This remarkable difference raises a question about the nature of multinationals’ profit patterns.

• Federal Reserve Independence and Congressional Intent: A Reappraisal of Marriner Eccles’ Role in the Reformulation of the Fed in 1935  Gary Richardson & David W. Wilcox/National Bureau of Economic Research

  Congressional intent concerning the independence of the Federal Reserve matters because it protects the public from the politicization of monetary policy. Attempts to subordinate monetary policy to the President could easily end up in front of the Supreme Court. The outcome of such a case would depend, importantly, on the historical record. Understanding what Congress intended when it designed the decision-making structure of the Fed requires a clear understanding Marriner Eccles’ proposal for the structure of monetary policymaking in Title II of the Banking Act of 1935 and the Congressional response. Eccles' proposal vested monetary policymaking in a body beholden to the President. Eccles argued that leaders of the Fed should serve at the discretion of the President and implement the President's monetary program. The Senate and House rejected Eccles' proposal and explicitly designed the Fed's leadership structure to limit politicians'—particularly the President's—influence on monetary policymaking.
  
  

• Ending Bailouts, At Last  John Cochrane & Amit Seru/Hoover Institution

  In 2008, we had a financial crisis. Our government responded once again with bailouts. Bailouts keep existing business going, and most of all protect creditors from losses. The instruments vary, including direct creditor guarantees like deposit insurance, mergers of failing companies with sound ones sweetened with government money or government purchases of bad assets, or government purchases, guarantees, and other efforts to prop up security prices and thereby cover up losses. Since actual or promised (contingent) resources flow from taxpayers to financial market participants, we include all of these interventions as “bailouts.”

The Threat of Asymmetric Attacks on Undersea Cables

• Safeguarding Subsea Cables: Protecting Cyber Infrastructure Amid Great Power Competition  Daniel Runde/ Center for Strategic and International Studies

  Subsea cables are critical for nearly all aspects of commerce and business connectivity. For example, one major international bank moves an average of $3.9 trillion through these cable systems every workday. Cables are the backbone of global telecommunications and the internet, given that user data (e.g., e-mail, cloud drives, and application data) are often stored in data centers around the world. This infrastructure effectively facilitates daily personal use of the Internet and broader societal functions. In addition, sensitive government communications also rely extensively on subsea infrastructure. Western defense and intelligence officials are increasingly concerned about Russia’s threats to disrupt and destroy the cables. What can be done?

• Understanding and Managing Global Catastrophic Risk  Rand

  In response to a request from the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS)—specifically, FEMA—for support in meeting the requirements of the Congressionally mandated Global Catastrophic Risk Management Act (GCRMA)assessment requirement, RAND researchers developed a risk summary for each of the hazards and threats noted in the law. What are those hazards and threats? asteroid and comet impacts, super-volcanoes, severe pandemics, rapid and severe climate change, nuclear conflict, and AI.
  

• The United States and the “Axis” of Its Enemies: Myths vs. Reality  Eugene Rumer/Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

  Since launching its all-out assault on Ukraine, Russia has drawn closer to China, Iran, and North Korea. But have they really formed an “axis?” Their interests have aligned but not merged. It makes little sense and can be even counterproductive to treat these four countries, each guided by its own vision, as a unified coalition.

China

• The Clandestine Oil Shipping Hub Funneling Iranian Crude to China  Bloomberg

  Bloomberg has written a fantastic interactive report on how a burgeoning group of “dark fleet” vessels are operating with impunity on the edge of major maritime thoroughfares. And in these ships, hundreds of millions of barrels of sanctioned oil is being moved by Iran and China – with tremendous risk to the environment.