The Global Week Ahead

Written By Francis Kelly

August 20 - 27, 2023

This week we will either see the growth of a new global economic bloc… or not.  The BRICS leaders (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) are meeting in South Africa this week – but only four of the five leaders will be in attendance as Russian President Vladimir Putin has an international warrant out for his arrest for committing war crimes against Ukraine.  The question for the BRICS is whether to expand their membership.  More than 40 countries have expressed interest in joining – including Cuba and Iran -- and 23 have formally applied for membership.  Brazil is resisting any significant expansion, while South Africa wants to expand. 

Also likely to be discussed is creating a common currency to dethrone the U.S. dollar as the world's largest reserve currency (and for Russia, get around the sanctions) while expanding the power of the BRICS New Development Bank.  India has made it clear they are not supportive of the idea and, as Jim O'Neill, the former Goldman Sachs economist who coined the name "BRICS," told the Financial Times last week, the idea of a common currency is "ridiculous" and that the bloc has "Never achieved anything since they first started meeting." 

Also this week, the 2024 U.S. presidential election cycle begins to kick into high gear as the first Republican presidential candidate debate is held in Milwaukee.  Former President Donald Trump announced he would not participate.  But eight (maybe nine if they can prove they qualified) other candidates will be on stage, and Fox News, who is hosting the debate, has promised to show video clips of Trump and ask the candidates to comment on what he said.

Meanwhile, Trump will be arraigned on Friday in Fulton County, Georgia, along with eighteen other defendants for allegedly trying to overturn the vote in his favor in Georgia.  We understand this will be the first case where the former President will have a mug shot taken.

 The big global economic radar screen event is the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank's annual Jackson Hole Symposium.   This year's theme is "Structural Shifts in the Global Economy." Fed Chair Jay Powell and ECB President Christine Lagarde will speak on Friday. 

Also this week, China announces 1-year and 5-year loan prime rates, while we will see flash PMI prints from the U.S. and Eurozone.

Here is what else we are watching around the world this coming week:

Sunday, August 20, 2023

 

Global

  • Nothing Significant To Report (NSTR)

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Ecuador is scheduled to hold Presidential and Legislative elections. 

  • Guatemala holds run-off presidential elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will meet Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban in Budapest, Hungary.

  • Sweden hosts World Water Week through August 24.  They will discuss how to pursue innovative solutions for managing water in an increasingly unstable and resource-scarce world.

  • Today is National Day in Hungary, a national holiday.  It is also known as State Foundation Day as well as St. Stephen’s Day, the nation’s first canonized saint.  It goes back to 1000 A.D. when Pope Sylvester II ordains St. Stephen as King of Hungary.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

NSTR

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

 

Monday, August 21, 2023

Global

  • The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a meeting on the situation in the Middle East, including the Palestinian question, followed by consultations. In the afternoon, the Council is scheduled to hold a closed meeting on the situation in the Middle East, followed by consultations on the Middle East (Syria).

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • President Joe Biden and First Lady Jill Biden will travel to Maui to assess the damage from the recent wildfires.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Canada New Housing Price Index (July)

  • Costa Rica Balance of Trade (July)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Cambodia’s Parliament convenes for the first time under prime minister Hun Manet after his father, Hun Sen handed power over to him earlier this month. 

  • The United States and South Korea will launch the Ulchi Freedom Shield joint military drill in South Korea.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • China Loan Prime Rate (1Y & 5Y)

  • Taiwan Export Orders (July), Current Account (Q2), Inflation (July)

  • Thailand GDP (Q2)

  • New Zealand Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (July)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • Montenegrin President Jakov Milatovic, other Balkan leaders, and EU representatives, including EU President Ursula von der Leyen, will meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Athens, Greece. 

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Germany PPI (July)

  • Poland Employment (July), Industrial Production (July), PPI (July)

  • Hungary Unemployment (July)

 

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • In Israel, US Joint Chief of Staff General Mark Milley is scheduled to visit over next week and meet Defense Minister Yoav Gallant.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Qatar GDP (Q1), Total Credit Growth (July)

  • Israel Inflation Expectations (August), Manufacturing PMI (July)

  • Turkey Central Government Debt (July)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

 

 

Tuesday, August 22, 2023

 

Global

  • The BRICS Summit begins in South Africa.  Only four of the five leaders will be in attendance as Russian President Vladimir Putin because of the international arrest warrant that is out there for his crimes against Ukraine.  The leaders are expected to discuss the expansion of the group and the possible establishment of a common trading currency (which is unlikely to happen).

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • US Redbook (August 19), Existing Home Sales (July), Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (August)

  • Argentina Balance of Trade (July)

  • Brazil Federal Tax Revenues (July)

  • Paraguay PPI (July)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Thailand’s parliament will again meet to try to elect a new prime minister.   The sole nominee up for consideration now is property tycoon Srettha Thavisin, but he is unlikely to secure enough votes.

  • Singapore holds Election nomination day, where presidential hopefuls submit the necessary paperwork needed to run.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • South Korea Consumer Confidence (August)

  • Taiwan Unemployment Rate (July)

  • Indonesia Current Account (Q2)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • EU climate chief Frans Timmermans will be nominated leader of a joint campaign between the Netherlands' Green Left and Labor parties that will run in the November Dutch general elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Eurozone Current Account (June)

  • UK Public Sector Net Borrowing (July), CBI Industrial Trends Orders (August)

  • Ireland Consumer Confidence (August), Current Account (June), Wholesale Sales (July)

  • Switzerland Balance of Trade (July)

  • Poland Retail Sales (July)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Lebanon Inflation (July)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • The United Nations will hold a climate finance workshop for members of the Economic Community of West African States in Bonn, Germany.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (June)

 

 

Wednesday, August 23, 2023

Global

  • NSTR

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Fox News hosts the first Republican presidential debate in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI/Services PMI/Composite PMI (August), MBA Mortgage Purchase Index (August 18)

  • Canada Retail Sales (June)

  • El Salvador Balance of Trade (July)

  • Argentina Economic Activity (June)

  • Paraguay Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • India’s Chandrayaan lunar lander is expected to touch down on the Moon’s South Pole.

  • The United States, Japan, and Australia will conduct joint naval drills in the South China Sea.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI/Composite PMI (August)

  • South Korea Business Confidence (August)

  • Singapore CPI (July), Inflation (July)

  • Taiwan Industrial Production (July), Retail Sales (July)

  • Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI/Services PMI (August)

  • New Zealand Retail Sales (Q2)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Eurozone Consumer Confidence (August), HCOB Manufacturing PMI/Services PMI/Composite PMI (August)

  • Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI/Services PMI/Composite PMI (August)

  • France HCOB Manufacturing PMI/Services PMI/Composite PMI (August)

  • UK S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI/Services PMI/Composite PMI (August)

  • Poland Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

  • Kosovo Balance of Trade (July)

  • Russia Industrial Production (July)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Turkey Consumer Confidence (August)

  • Israel Manufacturing Production (June)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Zimbabwe holds presidential, parliamentary, and local elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • South Africa Inflation (July) 

 

 

Thursday, August 23, 2023

Global

  • The annual Jackson Hole economic policy symposium, hosted by the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank, begins.

  • G20 Trade and Investment Ministers meet in Jaipur, India.

  • the Organization for Economic Cooperation & Development (OECD) releases trade statistics for the second quarter of the year.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • US Building Permits (July), Durable Goods Orders (July), Chicago Fed National Activity Index (July), Initial Jobless Claims (August 19), Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index (August)

  • Canada Wholesale Sales (July)

  • Mexico Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Mid-month Inflation (August)

  • Argentina Leading Indicator (July), Retail Sales (June)

  • Peru Current Account (Q2)

  • Chile PPI (July)

  • Colombia Business Confidence (July)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • South Korea Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, PPI (July)

  • Hong Kong Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (July)

  • Indonesia Property Price Index (Q2)

  • Sri Lanka Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

  • Indonesia Loan Growth (July), Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • Ukraine celebrates its 32nd Independence Day.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • France Business Confidence (August), Business Climate Indicator (August)

  • UK CBI Distributive Trades (August), Cfk Consumer Confidence (August)

  • Hungary Gross Wage (June)

  • Poland Unemployment (July)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Saudi Arabia Balance of Trade (June)

  • Turkey Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

  • Israel Composite Economic Index (July)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Botswana Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

 

 

Friday, August 25, 2023

Global

  • NSTR

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Former President Donald Trump and 18 other individuals must turn themselves into the Fulton County Court (Georgia) to be processed following their arraignment for multiple criminal charges.

  • Today is Uruguay Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (August), Michigan 5-year Inflation Expectations (August)

  • Canada Manufacturing Sales (July), Budget Balance (June)

  • Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (August), Current Account (July), FDI (June), IPCA CIP (August)

  • Mexico GDP (Q2), Current Account (Q2)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Japan CPI (August)

  • India FX Reserves (August 18), FDI (June)

  • Singapore Industrial Production (July)

  • Thailand Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (July) New Car Sales (July)

  • Philippines Budget Balance (July)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • Dmitry Medvedev, the chair of Russia's ruling United Russia party, will meet with party candidates for the posts of regional heads of the Russian Federation. 

Economic Reports/Events –

  • ECB President Christine Lagarde speaks at the annual Economic Policy Symposium "Structural Shifts in the Global Economy" organized by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City in Jackson Hole at 1:00 p.m. CT.

  • Germany GDP (Q2), Ifo Business Climate (August), Ifo Current Conditions (August), Ifo Expectations (August)

  • France Consumer Confidence (August), Unemployment (July)

  • Spain PPI (July)

  • Hungary Unemployment (July)

  • Switzerland Non-Farm Payrolls (Q2)

  • Bosnia and Herzegovina Inflation (July), PPI (July), Industrial Production (July)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Turkey Business Confidence (August), Capacity Utilization (August)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nigeria GDP (Q2)

 

Saturday, August 26, 2023

Global

  • NSTR

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Japan will launch a rocket carrying a Japanese lunar lander from Tanegashima Space Centre. The mission is designed to show that lighter and more inexpensive missions to space can be achieved.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Gabon holds presidential, parliamentary, and local elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

 

Sunday, August 27, 2023

Global

  • NSTR

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • China Industrial Profits (July)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

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Francis Kelly
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