Recommended Weekend Reads

August 25 - 27, 2023

Here are our recommended reads from reports and articles we read in the last week. We hope you find these useful,  and have a great, relaxing weekend.   And let us know if you or someone you know wants to be added to our distribution list.

Africa

• “Unlocking Africa’s Population Potential”  OMFIF

  Africa’s population is growing rapidly. The estimated annual growth rate was 2.5% in 2021. Given the trajectory, Africa’s population will double by 2050. Statistics show that the continent adds two children per mother for every child born in Asia. This dynamic demographic seems to favor Africa, with its youthful population. What does this mean for Africa’s long-term economic prosperity? And why should we be cautiously optimistic?  The relationship between population growth and economic growth in Africa is positive, although weak (Figure 2). This arguably suggests that Africa could turn its growing population, if well harnessed, into an economic powerhouse in the coming decades.

Americas

• “For North American Energy Security, Go Local: Examining the Role of Natural Gas and Mexico’s Energy Sector”  Center for Strategic and International Studies

  Natural gas is the predominant fuel source in Mexico. However, years of reliance on the United States for cheap, plentiful gas imports has prevented Mexico from capturing the potential of its domestic gas industry. This exposes Mexico to risks in the form of geopolitical distortions and unexpected disruptions in U.S. supply. It also exacerbates inequalities between northern and southern states as high energy prices in the latter serve as deterrents for businesses and investors. This brief breaks down the intersection of energy security, natural gas, nearshoring, and migration and outlines areas for Mexico to cooperate with the United States on bolstering its domestic energy sector. 

•  “Not the X-Files: Mapping Public Reports of Unidentified Aerial Phenomena Across America”  Rand Corporation

  In this report, RAND provides findings on U.S. locations where unidentified aerial phenomena (UAP) reports are significantly more likely to occur and offers recommendations to increase awareness of the types of activities that might be mistaken for unexplained phenomena or that point to potential threats. The data were collected by the National UFO Reporting Center (NUFORC), one of the nongovernmental entities that the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has referenced in official documents for where to report unexplained phenomena. The analyses of these data should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any individual reports to NUFORC or of the accuracy of the database.

• “How BRICS Expansion Will Impact South America”   Americas Quarterly

  On the occasion of the 15th BRICS Leaders Summit in Johannesburg this week, the current members invited Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates to join the bloc early next year. The expansion, the first since 2010, will transform the BRICS group and represent a geopolitical win for Beijing.  But with presidential elections looming in Argentina, both Javier Milei and Patricia Bullrich, the first- and second-placed finishers of the recent national primaries, have signaled skepticism about China, and Bullrich even announced her opposition to Argentina’s potential BRICS accession.

Indo-Pacific

• “India is Pushing Back Against China in South Asia”   Foreign Policy

  As the intensifying strategic confrontation between the United States and China dominates many foreign-policy debates, another important competition is quietly playing out. The jostling between India and China for influence in South Asia—from the Himalayas to the islands off the subcontinent in the Indian Ocean—will likely prove crucial to the fate of Washington's strategy to keep the region “free and open” from Chinese coercion. And the good news, at least for now, is that New Delhi—an increasingly close U.S. partner—has been mostly successful in pushing back against Beijing's rising influence across the region.

Chart of the Week 

China’s Provinces Carrying Massive Debt 

The Financial Times drills into one of the biggest financial challenges in China today: The debt accumulated by its provinces – an estimated Rmb94 trillion($12 trillion). Much of it is hidden in opaque local government financing vehicles.  As local governments struggle to manage the debt, they are also increasingly reluctant to sell off state-owned assets to repay the debt.