The Global Week Ahead

Written By Francis Kelly

April 14 - 21, 2024

Iran’s unprecedented attack on Israel is sending shockwaves globally and is likely to scare global markets when they open on Monday morning.   It also makes the coming week highly unpredictable in terms of what to expect.  It was already scheduled to be a very busy week, with the IMF-World Bank Spring meetings in Washington, the G7 Foreign Ministers scheduled to meet in Italy, and India’s massive six-week-long parliamentary elections getting underway (estimated 900 million+ voters). 

Now, world leader’s calendars are being scrambled – especially among the G7 leaders – as they seek to find a way to calm the situation in the Middle East.   But it is likely they will not be successful as Israel prepares for a likely massive strike-back at Iran. At this point, we see little chance of Israel not massively striking Iran, likely targeting Iran’s nuclear weapons facilities, oil facilities, and leadership in Tehran.  We are watching the situation closely and sending our clients essential updates and insights.

The attack may have finally gotten the U.S. House of Representatives focused on finally passing a large military aid package for Israel, which is attached to a $62 billion Ukraine aid package.  We expect the bill to pass the House this week.

Also in the U.S. this week, former President Donald Trump’s criminal trial in New York gets underway, the first time a current or former President has ever been tried for a crime.

As mentioned above, India’s much-anticipated national parliamentary elections get underway. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata (BJP) Party is expected to perform strongly, giving Modi a solid mandate to push through sweeping reforms in the coming year.   Out of a population of 1.4 billion, voter turnout is expected to reach 75 percent – more than 900 million Indians voting.

On the global economic radar screen this week, markets will be primarily focused on U.S. data releases after last week’s unexpectedly strong inflation print.

U.S. industrial production, retail sales, and the publication of the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book will be among the most watched reports.

In Asia, Japan releases its CPI print, while in China, the latest Q1 GDP data is released.  Meanwhile, Eurozone inflation figures and the ZEW survey results will be released in Europe.

Below is everything else we are watching around the world this week:

Sunday, April 14, 2024

Global

  • The UN Security Council is expected to meet today in an extraordinary session to discuss Iran’s attack on Israel on Saturday and Sunday morning.  

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • China PBoC 1-Year MLF Announcement

  • New Zealand Services & Composite NZ PCI (March)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Israel Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Monday, April 15, 2024 

Global

  • IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings begin today.

  • The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations on the Middle East (Yemen). In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on threats to international peace and security. 

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • A jury trial for Donald Trump is scheduled to start. The former president is charged with 34 counts of falsifying business records to facilitate a payment to adult actress Stormy Daniels, who claimed she had an affair with Trump in 2006.

  • Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala meets with President Biden at the White House.  They are expected to “reaffirm their resolute support for Ukraine.”   Later in the day, Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Sudani is scheduled to meet with President Biden (but this may be rescheduled due to Iran’s attack on Israel on Saturday).

  • The Colombian government and the National Liberation Army will hold peace negotiations in Venezuela through April 22.

  • Chile will host the seventh meeting of the Forum of the Countries of Latin America and the Caribbean on Sustainable Development in Santiago. 

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan to participate in panel before the IMF-BOJ Conference: “Gender Diversity in the Workplace as a Key to Economic Growth."

  • San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly to speak before hybrid Associates Meeting of the 2024 Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research (SIEPR).

  • USA Retail Sales (March)/ NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (April)/ Business Inventories (February)/ NAHB Housing Market Index (April)/ NOPA Crush Report/ Fed Daly Speech

  • Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity (February)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

  • Canada Manufacturing Sales Final (February)

  • Colombia Industrial Production (February)/ Retail Sales (February)

  • Paraguay Consumer Confidence (March)

  • El Salvador Inflation Rate (March)

  • Peru GDP Growth Rate (February)/ Unemployment Rate (March)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Japan Machinery Orders (February)

  • India WPI Food Index (March)/ WPI Fuel (March)/ WPI Inflation (March)/ WPI Manufacturing (March)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)

  • Philippines Consumer Confidence Q1

  • Indonesia Passenger Vehicles Sales (March)

  • Kazakhstan Industrial Production (March)/ PPI (March)

  • Sri Lanka Services & Manufacturing PMI (March)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • The EU Energy Ministers will hold an informal meeting in Brussels from April 16 to discuss how to advance sustainable energy infrastructure. 

Economic Reports/Events –

  • ECB Board Member Philip R. Lane will give a lecture at the University College Dublin Economics Society in Dublin, Ireland.

  • Bank of England Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden gives a keynote speech at the Innovate Finance Global Summit 2024 in London.

  • Ireland Construction PMI (March)

  • Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (March)

  • Slovakia Inflation Rate (March)

  • Poland Inflation Rate Final (March)

  • Euro Area Industrial Production (February)

  • Russia Building Permits (February)

  • Great Britain BoE Breeden Speech

  • Ukraine Balance of Trade (February)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (March)/ Wholesale Prices (March)

  • Israel Unemployment Rate (March)/ Inflation Rate (March)

  • Jordan Inflation Rate (March)

  • Oman M2 Money Supply (February)/ Total Credit (February)

  • Kuwait M2 Money Supply (February)/ Private Bank Lending (February)

  • Turkey Unemployment Rate (February)/ Participation Rate (February)/ Budget Balance (March)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nigeria Inflation Rate (March)

  • Ethiopia Inflation Rate (March)

 

 

Tuesday, April 16, 2024

Global

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • The U.S. Supreme Court will hear oral arguments on the charges used against the 330 defendants accused and convicted of storming the U.S. Capitol on January 6, 2021.

  • Canadian Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland presents the annual state budget to parliament.

Economic Reports/Events –

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who is on a state visit to China, is scheduled to meet Chinese Prime Minister Li Qiang and President Xi Jinping.

  • The Digital Silk Road Development Forum is being held in Xi'An, China.

  • Philippine transport unions will hold nationwide strikes through April 16 and possibly beyond.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • South Korea Import & Export Prices (March)

  • China House Price Index (March)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Industrial Production (March)/ Retail Sales (March)/ Unemployment Rate (March)CH/ Industrial Capacity Utilization Q1/ NBS Press Conference

  • Indonesia Consumer Confidence (March)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)

  • New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index (April/16)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • The National Conservatism conference starts today and runs until tomorrow. Speakers include Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, former UK Home Secretary Suella Braverman, and GB News host Nigel Farage.

  • EU President Ursula von der Leyen will give a speech at the High-level Conference on the European Pillar of Social Rights in La Hulpe, Belgium.

  • Ukraine and Bulgaria will hold the second Black Sea Security Conference in Sofia, Bulgaria. 

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Germany Wholesale Prices (March)/ ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (April)/ ZEW Current Conditions (April)

  • Great Britain Unemployment Rate (February)/ Claimant Count Change (March)/ HMRC Payrolls Change (March)

  • Italy Inflation Rate Final (March)/ Balance of Trade (February)

  • Euro Area Balance of Trade (February)/ ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (April)

  • Ireland Balance of Trade (February)

  • Poland Core Inflation Rate (March)

  • Belarus Industrial Production (March)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Israel GDP Growth Annualized 3rd Est Q4

  • Oman Inflation Rate (March)

  • Qatar Inflation Rate (March)

  • Turkey Retail Sales (February)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • The Forum on People of African Descent organized by the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights will take place in Geneva, Switzerland through April 19.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

  

 

Wednesday, April 17, 2024 

Global

  • IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings.  G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors meet.

  • The G7 Foreign Ministers meet in Capri, Italy. They will discuss Iran’s attack on Israel, the situation in Gaza, and the Ukraine War.

  • The UN  Security Council is scheduled to hold a debate on the Maintenance of international peace and security: The role of young persons in addressing security challenges in the Mediterranean. In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East. 

  • The United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) is expected to release its State of World Population 2024 report.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (“Lula”) travels to Colombia to meet with President Gustavo Petro.  They are expected to discuss protecting the Amazon, other environmental issues, the upcoming Venezuelan elections, and the Venezuelan suppression of opposition candidates.

  • The Semafor World Economy Summit will be held in Washington, D.C., from April 18 to 20. Several leading global CEOs, senior government officials, and central bankers will speak at the summit.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Federal Reserve  Governor Michelle W. Bowman participates in a Fireside Chat at the Institute for International Finance (IIF) Global Outlook Forum, Washington, D.C.

  • Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester to speak on "An Update From the Federal Reserve" before the South Franklin Circle Dialogues Series.

  • USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (April)/12/ MBA Purchase Index (April/12)/ EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (April/12)/ Fed Beige Book/ Net Long-term TIC Flows (February)/ Foreign Bond Investment (February)/ Overall Net Capital Flows (February)

  • Chile Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

  • Canada Foreign Securities Purchases (February)

  • Brazil Business Confidence (April)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • The Solomon Islands holds parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • New Zealand Inflation Rate Q1

  • Japan Reuters Tankan Index (April)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)

  • Singapore Non-Oil Exports (March)/ Balance of Trade (March)

  • Australia Westpac Leading Index (March)

  • Indonesia Retail Sales (February)

  • Philippines Cash Remittances (February)

  • India M3 Money Supply (April/05)

  • China FDI (YTD) (March)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • Great Britain Inflation Rate (March)/ PPI Input & Output (March)/ Retail Price Index (March)

  • Slovakia Harmonized Inflation Rate (March)

  • Euro Area Inflation Rate Final (March)/ CPI Final (March)

  • Ireland Residential Property Prices (February)

  • Russia PPI (March)

  • Belarus GDP (March)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Israel M1 Money Supply (March)

  • Turkey Current Account (February)/ Auto Production (March)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • The Southern and East Africa LPG Expo, which seeks to advance liquified petroleum gas as clean cooking energy in the subregion, begins in Mozambique.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • South Africa Inflation Rate (March)/ Retail Sales (February)

  • Angola Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)/ M3 Money Supply (March)

 

 

Thursday, April 18, 2024 

Global

IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings

  • The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a debate on the Middle East.  

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • U.S. OFAC licensing for the Venezuelan oil industry is scheduled to expire, placing sanctions back on the country.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman gives opening remarks at the 2024 New York Fed Regional and Community Banking Conference (Virtual)

  • New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams to participate in a moderated discussion before the Semafor World Economy Summit.

  • Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic to speak on the economic outlook in a moderated armchair chat before the Prosperity Partnership Fort Lauderdale Meeting.  Later in the day, Bostic will speak on the economic outlook, monetary policy and real estate in a moderated armchair chat at the University of Miami Herbert Business School.

  • USA Initial Jobless Claims (April/13)/ Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (April)/ Philly Fed Business Conditions (April)/ Philly Fed CAPEX Index (April)/ Philly Fed Employment (April)/ Philly Fed New Orders (April)/ Philly Fed Prices Paid (April)/Existing Home Sales (March)/ CB Leading Index  (March)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (April/12)/ 15 & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (April/17)/ 5-Year TIPS Auction

  • Colombia ISE Economic Activity (February)

  • Argentina Balance of Trade (March)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Japanese Central Bank Member of the Policy Board Asahi Noguchi will give a speech and meet with local leaders in Saga, Japan.

  • Japan Foreign Bond Investment (April/13)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (April/13)

  • Australia Employment Change (March)/ Unemployment Rate (March)/ RBA Bulletin/ Participation Rate (March)

  • Hong Kong Unemployment Rate (March)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • There will be an informal meeting of EU Consumer Protection Ministers held in Brussels through April 19. 

Economic Reports/Events –

  • ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos will give a presentation of the ECB Annual Report 2023 at the ECON Committee in Brussels, Belgium.

  • ECB Board Member Isabel Schnabel will give a keynote speech at the 2024 EU-US Symposium in Washington, D.C.

  • Euro Area New Car Registrations (March)/ Current Account (February)/ Construction Output (February)

  • Switzerland Balance of Trade (March)

  • Spain Bonos Auction/ Obligacion Auction

  • Italy Current Account (February)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (April/12)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • South Africa Building Permits (February)

 

 

Friday, April 19, 2024 

Global

IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings

  • The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the OSCE Chairperson-in-Office. In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on Sudan. 

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee to participate in a moderated question-and-answer session before the Society for Advancing Business Editing and Writing (SABEW) Annual Conference.

  • Mexico Retail Sales (February)

  • USA Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (April/19)

  • Colombia Imports/ Balance of Trade (February)

  • Argentina Leading Indicator (March)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Japan Inflation Rate (March)/ Tertiary Industry Index (February)

  • India Bank Loan Growth (April/05)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April/12)/ Central Bank Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

  • Malaysia GDP Growth Rate Prel Q1/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)

  • Hong Kong Business Confidence Q2

  • Kazakhstan GDP (March)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

  • Economic Reports/Events –

  • Bank of England Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden participates on a panel discussion on monetary policy responses to post-pandemic inflation at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington, D.C.

  • Germany PPI (March)

  • Great Britain Retail Sales (March)/ BoE Ramsden Speech

  • Greece Current Account (February)

  • Italy Construction Output (February)

  • Spain Balance of Trade (February)/ Consumer Confidence (March)

  • Slovenia PPI (March)

  • Russia Current Account (February)

  • Slovakia Current Account (February)/ Unemployment Rate (March)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Israel Inflation Expectations (April)/ Inflation Expectations (April)

  • Turkey Central Government Debt (March)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Ghana PPI (March)

 

 

Saturday, April 20, 2024 

Global

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Toga holds parliamentary and regional elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report. 

 

 

Sunday, April 21, 2024

Global

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Maldives holds parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Israel Inflation Expectations (April)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Francis Kelly
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