The Global Week Ahead

Written By Francis Kelly

July 16 - 23, 2023

Amidst the record-setting summer heat in the Northern Hemisphere, there are a lot of important geopolitical events this week. US-China relations look to be taking another positive step as US Climate Envoy John Kerry travels to Beijing – following the recent visits of US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.  Kerry will meet with his Chinese counterpart to discuss how the US and China can collaborate to make the upcoming COP27 meetings in the United Arab Emirates in November a success.  

Of more immediate concern is the deadline to extend the Black Sea Grain Initiative comes to an end on Monday.  Russia has balked at renewing the agreement, which allows the flow of grain and fertilizer – mainly from Ukraine – via the Black Sea to Africa, the Middle East, and Asia. Failure to renew the deal could create a massive global food security crisis.

The EU-CLAC (Community of Latin America and the Caribbean) summit will be held in Brussels. EU and CLAC leaders will seek to advance greater trade and economic relations and help advance an EU - Latin American free trade agreement with several South American nations – which is vital for the EU as they seek new markets to access critical minerals necessary for their long-term energy transition plans. 

Also this week, Spain holds snap elections that increasingly look to reject the Socialist Government. The significance of this is Spain has just taken over the Presidency of the European Union until the end of the year and could significantly impact the EU’s fiscal reform efforts and overall policy planning going forward.

On the global economic front, as G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Heads meet in India, markets will be watching China’s 2nd quarter GDP numbers and where the People’s Central Bank sets the MLF rate for clues as to just how weak the Chinese economy is and its impact on global trade. Most analysts are expecting weak numbers. The US will report retail sales and industrial production as the Federal Reserve goes into its blackout period ahead of the July 26 Open Markets Meeting. 

Finally, Turkey’s Central Bank, led by a newly installed. 

Japan will be reporting CPI numbers which the markets will show that inflation has peaked. The UK will also be reporting CPI numbers, and the expectation is price pressures will show signs of abating.  

Finally, Turkey’s newly installed central bank chief Hafize Gaye Erkan will be deciding where the countries rates will go after they raised rates in June to 25 percent in June.

Here is what else we are watching around the world this week:

Sunday, July 16, 2023

Global

  • The G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors meetings continue in Gandhinagar, India.  US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will participate and hold a press conference today.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • US Special Presidential Envoy for Climate John Kerry will travel to China for talks with his counterparts to discuss resuming joint-climate efforts. He will be meeting with his counterpart, Xie Zhenhau. This follows the visit last week of US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and the trip two weeks ago Secretary of State Antony Blinken made to Beijing.  Joint talks over climate were suspended after then-Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) made a high-profile visit to Taiwan.  Kerry will seek to find ways for the US and China to work together to implement the COP28 conference, which takes place in Dubai in November. 

  • In New Hampshire, Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV) is scheduled to participate in a “No Labels” event.  Many political observers see no Labels as a potential third political party campaign going into the 2024 campaigns.  Senator Manchin has been chatted up as a possible presidential candidate for No Labels. 

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • American Samoa celebrates Manu’a Cession Day, a public holiday marking the day when the Islands of Manu decided to join the rest of American Samoa and become a US-held territory.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Saudi Arabia Wholesale Prices (June)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Japan’s Prime Minister Kishida visits Saudi Arabia for talks with Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salem.  Kishida will possibly also travel to the UAE and Qatar, all in an effort to bolster oil supplies.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Monday, July 17, 2023

Global

  • The G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors continue in Gandhinagar, India.

  • The UN Security Council will meet in the afternoon to discuss the situation in Ukraine.  UK Foreign Minister James Cleverly will chair the meeting (the UK is chairing the Security Council for the month of July).

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • The 3rd EU-CLAC (Community of Latin America and the Caribbean) summit takes place in Brussels through July 18.   The heads of state of the EU and CELAC (33 members) will attend the two-day event, which is co-chaired by European Council President Charles Michel and Ralph Gonsalves, the Prime Minister of St. Vincent and the Grenadines.  This is the first EU-CLAC summit since 2015.  The 2017 summit was canceled due to concerns about the situation in Venezuela.  This summit is seen as particularly important because of the War in Ukraine – where the EU finds itself at odds with the positions of a number of Latin American countries, particularly Brazil – in how to deal with Russia.  Intertwined with this is the EU’s desire to have greater access to critical mineral mining in the region.  

Economic Reports/Events –

  • US Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler gives a speech on artificial intelligence and securities regulation at the National Press Club in Washington, D.C.

  • US New York Empire State Manufacturing Indies (July)

  • Canada New Motor Vehicles Sales (May), Wholesale Sales (May)

  • Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout, IBC-BR Economic Activity (May)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Korea celebrates Constitution Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • China’s People’s Bank of China 1-Year MLF Announcement, GDP (Q2), Industrial Production (June), Retail Sales (June), Unemployment (June), Industrial Capacity Utilization (Q2),

  • Singapore Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (June), Balance of Trade (June)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • The Black Sea Grain Initiative is set to expire.  The Initiative, a U.N.brokered deal that Turkey assisted in negotiating,  guarantees the safe passage of Black Sea grain from Ukraine ports, was brokered last year.  Since then, more than 33 million tons of grains and fertilizers have been exported through the Black Sea and through the Bosphorus.  The agreement was initially arranged on a five-month basis, but Russia recently demanded it be changed to every 60 days.  Now, Moscow is arguing they see no need to extend the deal unless they are granted significant sanctions relief, including allowing the Russian Agricultural Bank to be reconnected to the SWIFT payment system and lifting of all sanctions placed on any company involved in food and fertilizer exports.  Failure to renew the deal and keep the flow of grain and fertilizer will likely have an enormous impact on food security in Africa, the Middle East, and parts of Asia as well as food prices globally.

  • EU President Ursula von der Leyen meets with Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.  Lula is in Brussels for the EU-CELAC Summit.

  • EU President Ursula van der Leyen will sign a Memorandum of Understanding with Argentine President Alberto Fernández on energy cooperation.

  • The EU Agriculture and Fisheries ministers will hold informal meetings through July 18 in Vigo, Spain.  They will discuss ways to decarbonize the EU’s fisheries and aquaculture sector. 

In the UK, ASLEF train drivers go on strike for a week over pay.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • ECB President Christine Lagarde gives a pre-recorded welcome address at the 9th ECB conference on central, eastern, and south-eastern European (CESEE) countries.  She will be speaking on the "Changing geopolitical landscape – economic implications for central, eastern and south-eastern Europe" at the event being held at the ECB in Frankfurt, Germany.

  • ECB Board Member Philip R. Lane chairs and speak at Session 1, "Macroeconomic policy challenges amid a changing geopolitical landscape," at the 9th ECB conference on central, eastern, and south-eastern European (CESEE) countries at the ECB, Frankfurt, Germany.

  • Italy Inflation (June), CPI (June)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Turkey Budget Balance

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Botswana celebrates President’s Day, a national holiday celebrating the role of the president.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Tuesday, July 18, 2023

Global

  • The G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors conclude in Gandhinagar, India. 

  • The UN Security Council will meet to discuss the impact of artificial intelligence on maintaining international peace and security.  UK Foreign Secretary James Cleverly will again chair the session.

  • The Islamic New Year begins tonight.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr speaks on “Fair Lending Practices” At the National Fair Housing Alliance 2023 National Conference, Washington, D.C.

  • US Retail Sales (June), Redbook (July 15), Industrial Production (June), Manufacturing Production (June), Capacity Utilization (June), Business Inventories (May), NAHB Housing Market Index (July)

  • Canada Inflation (June), CPI (June), Raw Materials Prices (June), PPI (June)

  • Argentina Economic Activity (May)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Japan Tertiary Industry Index (May)

  • Australia Reserve Bank Meeting Minutes

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • EU President Ursula von der Leyen signs a Memorandum of Understanding with Luis Lacalle Pou, President of Uruguay, on energy cooperation.  Later, she will sign a Memorandum of Understanding with Gabriel Boric, President of Chile, on a Strategic Partnership on Sustainable Raw Materials Value Chains cooperation.

  • The UK Ministry of Defense will publish its updated Integrated Review Command Paper.  Last updated in 2021, the paper defines the government’s vision for the UK’s role in the world for the next decade, both from a foreign policy, defense, security, and development perspective.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Italy Construction Output (May)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Wednesday, July 19, 2023

Global

  • NSTR

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • US MBA Housing Starts (June), Building Permits (June), Mortgage Indexes (July 14)

  • Canada Housing Starts (June)

  • Argentina Balance of Trade (June), Leading Indicators (June)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Thailand’s Parliament will re-vote who will be the next Prime Minister.  Last week, the Parliament failed to pick a Prime Minister after the pro-democracy candidate, Pita Limjaroenrat, did not get a majority of votes.  If they fail to reach a solution, another vote will be held on July 21.

  • Myanmar celebrates Martyr’s Day, commemorating those who led the independence movement in 1947.

  • In South Korea, the Boryeong Mud Festival begins.   The seven-day event, which first began in 1998, is the biggest summer festival in South Korea.  It is compared to Brazil’s Rio Carnival and Spain’s La Tomatina and consists of a wide variety of “survival mud games,” mud baths, and other contests. (who doesn’t love playing in the mud?)

Economic Reports/Events –

  • The Asian Development Bank releases its updated economic growth forecasts.  It will offer growth and inflation outlooks for all 31 member state economies in Asia-Pacific (excluding Japan).

  • Japan Reuters Tankan Index (July)

  • Australia Westpac Leading Index (June)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Bank of England Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden gives a speech on quantitative tightening at the Money Macro and Finance Society in London.

  • Eurozone Inflation (June), CPI (June), Construction Output (May), New Car Registrations (June)

  • UK Inflation (June), Retail Prices (June), PPI (June)

  • Russia PPI (June)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • South Africa Inflation (June), Retail Sales (May)

 

Thursday, July 20, 2023

Global

  • The UN Security Council will meet to be updated on the 1701 Report (this references the UN Resolution 1701, which was passed in 2006,  which calls for the full cessation of hostilities and the deployment of Lebanese forces to South Lebanon, and the withdrawal of Israeli forces from the country).

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen travels to Vietnam. She will meet with State Bank of Vietnam Governor Nguyen Thi Hong.  She will later meet with Prime Minister Pham Ninh Chinh and Finance Minister Ho Duc Phoc. She meets later with Communist Party of Vietnam Central Economic Commission Chair Tran Tuan Anh.

  • Colombia celebrates Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index (July), Philly Fed Business Conditions (July), Philly Fed CAPEX Index (July), Philly Fed New Orders (July), Initial Jobless Claims (July 15), Existing Home Sales (June), CB Leading Index (June)

  • Mexico Retail Sales (May)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • China Loan Prime Rate (1Y & 5Y)

  • Japan Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (June)

  • Australia Unemployment (June)

  • Indonesia Retail Sales (May)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Eurozone Current Account (May), Consumer Confidence Flash (July)

  • Germany PPI (June)

  • UK Gfk Consumer Confidence (July)

  • France Business Confidence (July)

  • Spain Balance of Trade (May)

  • Italy Current Account (May)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Turkey TCMB Interest Rate Decision, Central Government Debt (June), FX Reserves (July 14)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • South Africa Reserve Bank Interest Rate Decision, Building Permits (May)

  • Ghana PPI (June)

 

Friday, July 21, 2023

 

Global

  • The G20 Labor and Employment Ministers meet in Indore, India.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Canada Retail Sales (May), New Housing Price Index (June), Manufacturing Sales (June)

  • Mexico Mid-Month Inflation (July)

  • Brazil Federal Tax Revenues (June)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Japan Inflation (June)

  • South Korea PPI (June)

  • Singapore URA Property Index (Q2)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • The leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan will meet in Brussels, Belgium.  The EU is attempting to broker a peace agreement between the two countries.

  • Belgium celebrates Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • UK Retail Sales (June), Public Sector Borrowing (June)

  • Russia Central Bank Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Eswatini Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

 

Saturday, July 22, 2023

Global

  • The G20 Energy Ministers meet in Goa, India.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR 

 

Sunday, July 23, 2023

Global

  • NSTR

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  •  NSTR

Europe

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  •  NSTR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

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Francis Kelly
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