Recommended Weekend Reading
July 14 - 16, 2023
Here are our recommended reads from reports and articles we read in the last week. We hope you find these useful and have a great weekend. And let us know if you or someone you know wants to be added to our distribution list.
Indo-Pacific
“Scientific and Technological Flows Between the United States and China” Rand Corporation
This study points out that scientific and technological dominance — the price of increasingly tough competition between the US and China — has been recognized as a national priority by high-level leadership from both countries. This dominance can be attained in two primary ways: A country can rely on its domestic scientific and technology innovation resources and activities, or it can leverage foreign scientific and technological assets. The researchers focused on the second approach for this study; in this report, they describe the benefits and liabilities associated with U.S.-Chinese scientific research collaboration. Specifically, the researchers investigated three types of flows between the United States and China: the inflow of U.S. technology inputs into Chinese military technology, the bilateral movement of scientific researchers between the United States and China, and scientific collaboration between researchers based in the United States and those based in China.
“The Southeast Asia Aid Map” The Lowy Institute (Australia)
This interactive database tracks and maps aid and development finance flows from the international community to Southeast Asia, which is one of the most dynamic and fast-growing regions in the world. The research covers Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Timor‑Leste, and Vietnam, with complete data from 2015 to 2021. The goal of this research project is to improve aid efficiency in Southeast Asia through better transparency and coordination of development efforts. This project has collected information from more than 100,000 projects via more than 97 development partners in the region.
“Critical Minerals Strategy 2023-2030” Australian Department of Industry, Science, and Resources
Australia is one of the most mineral-rich nations in the world, and they possess a number of “critical minerals” necessary to help achieve Net Zero emissions there and globally. Australia is the largest producer of Lithium, the third-largest producer of Cobalt, and fourth largest producer of rare earths. The Australian Government has just released this comprehensive strategy for not only how they will mine these critical minerals but also sell and export them – which is very important for global markets to understand.
Europe/Eurasia
“The Ukrainian War Economy” Bruegel
Ukraine has been subject to full-scale Russian aggression since 24 February 2022, with major implications for Ukraine’s economic performance and economic management. As a result of war damages and territorial losses, Ukraine’s real GDP contracted by about 30 percent in 2022. Ukraine also experienced severe balance-of-payments and budget tensions in the first months of the war. Intensification of foreign financial aid from the second half of 2022 helped to achieve relative macroeconomic stability in the first half of 2023. The prospects of the Ukrainian economy depend on the length of the war, associated damages, and the size of external financial aid.
Americas
“Electoral College and Election Fraud” University of Chicago Becker Friedman Institute Working Paper
Abstract: One frequently overlooked aspect of the U.S.-style electoral college system is that it discourages election fraud. In a presidential election based on the popular vote, competing political parties are motivated to manipulate votes in areas where they hold the most significant influence, such as states where they control local executive offices, legislatures, and the judiciary. However, with the electoral college system in place, the incentives for fraud shift to swing states where the local government is politically divided, and fraud is, therefore, more difficult and costly. Our theoretical model elucidates why the electoral college system provides more effective protection against election fraud compared to the popular vote system. While polarization makes fraud more likely, it does not affect the superiority of the electoral college system.
“Electric Vehicles for Everyone? The Impossible Dream” Manhattan Institute
A dozen U.S. states, from California to New York, have joined dozens of countries, from Ireland to Spain, with plans to ban the sale of new cars with an internal combustion engine (ICE), many prohibitions taking effect within a decade. Meanwhile, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), in a feat of regulatory legerdemain, has proposed tailpipe emissions rules that would effectively force automakers to shift to producing mainly electric vehicles (EVs) by 2032. This is all to ensure that so-called zero-emission EVs play a central role in radically cutting carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. But, as this report illustrates:
No one knows how much, if at all, CO2 emissions will decline as EV use rises. Every claim for EVs reducing emissions is a rough estimate or an outright guess based on averages, approximations, or aspirations. The variables and uncertainties in emissions from energy-intensive mining and processing of minerals used to make EV batteries are a big wild card in the emissions calculus. Those emissions substantially offset reductions from avoiding gasoline, and as the demand for battery minerals explodes, the net reductions will shrink, may vanish, and could even lead to a net increase in emissions. Similar emissions uncertainties are associated with producing the power for EV charging stations.
No one knows when or whether EVs will reach economic parity with the cars that most people drive. An EV’s higher price is dominated by the costs of the critical materials that are needed to build it and is thus dependent on guesses about the future of mining and minerals industries, which are mainly in foreign countries. The facts also show that, for the majority of drivers, there’s no visibility for when, if ever, EVs will reach parity in cost and fueling convenience, regardless of subsidies.
“Did Latin America’s Progressives Become Too “Woke”?” Americas Quarterly
After many countries saw progressive victories on abortion and other issues, a conservative backlash is gaining strength in the region. In Chile, the electorate rounding rejected a new constitution in September 2022; In Argentina, the far-right libertarian candidate for president, Javier Milei, has been either leading in polls. And in other Latin countries, conservative parties are battling back and gaining political strength.
Graphs of the Week
Africa, Oceania Are Seeing a Rise in Hunger Since the Pandemic as the Risk of Russia Pulling out of the Black Sea Grain Initiative Rises
According to the UN’s Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO), the percentage of people in Africa and greater Oceania who are hungry has risen by 19.7 percent and 7 percent, respectively, since the COVID Pandemic ended. This is particularly important and troublesome now as the Black Sea Grain Initiative is set to expire on July 17, and Russia is saying it “sees no reason to continue it.” Moreover, since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Russia has significantly expanded its dominance of wheat production over Ukraine, bolstering its hold on the world’s wheat trade.
The following four charts show:
The increase in hunger in Africa and Oceana
The growth rate and projections of Russia’s dominance in wheat growth over Ukraine
Africa’s dependence on Russia and Ukraine for wheat
Which countries are the largest wheat exporters globally
