Recommended Weekend Reading
July 22 - 23, 2023
Here are our recommended reads from reports and articles we read in the last week. We hope you find these useful and have a great weekend. And let us know if you or someone you know wants to be added to our distribution list.
Global
“The Scramble for Critical Raw Materials: Time to Take Stock?” Global Trade Alert/University of St. Gallen/Max Schmidheiny Foundation
The growing scramble for so-called Critical Raw Materials has become an acute flashpoint between nations. Accusations and fears that governments weaponize trade in these industrial materials are in the headlines daily. Given the central role they play in the digital and energy transitions, policies to secure and produce these materials have the potential to upset trade relations for decades to come. The authors of his study sort out the fact from fiction in this complex, long-term policy challenge, arguing that many of the narratives deployed by governments simply don’t stand up to scrutiny. They go on to lay out five steps that would “thicken” markets over time for the small number of industrial materials where major excess demand gaps are likely to emerge in the decades ahead.
“Cyber Operations during the Russo-Ukrainian War” Center for Strategic and International Studies
When Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2021, one of the immediate fears in the West was Russia’s supposedly vaunted cyber operations expected attacks on governments, militaries, corporations, and individuals. Yet, Russia has not launched an all-out, costly cyberwar against Ukraine or the West. Instead, Russia has decided to focus on political warfare and espionage along with criminal malware campaigns – most of it focused on Ukraine, who have been fairly successful at beating them back, employing hundreds of thousands of IT volunteers to support cyber operations against Russia. The study also goes on to make a series of recommendations on what other nations should do to continue to be vigilant.
Europe/Eurasia
“Strategy on China” Government of the Federal Republic of Germany
Last week, the German government released its first official strategy on how to comprehensively deal with China. Built off the nation’s first official national security strategy, both reports come after months of intense debate and outright bickering between the various German political parties. In the report, the German government commits to working with China economically but also says, “de-risking from China is urgently needed. However, we are not pursuing a decoupling of our economies.” The report also puts the onus on businesses to “keep a close eye on relevant China-related developments, data, and risks.” The report also goes on the make clear Germany’s views on China-Taiwan tensions: “The status quo of the Taiwan Strait may only be changed by peaceful means and mutual consent. Military escalation would also affect German and European interests.”
“Russia’s Weapon of Mass Starvation” Center for European Policy Analysis
Russia's withdrawal from a deal to allow Ukrainian grain exports risks exacerbating famines and maritime danger in the Black Sea. A panel of experts explains what the impact on global markets and supplies is going to look like unless the deal is restored.
Middle East
“Saudi Arabia imports record volumes of discounted Russian fuel oil in June” Al-Monitor
Europe used to be the top market for Russian oil and petroleum products, but all that has changed since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Saudi Arabia has seen a ten-fold year-on-year increase in fuel oil at a steep discount, all of which the Kingdom resells into the open market.
“Why ISIS Cannot Bring the Caliphate Back to Life” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Since the defeat of ISIS forces at Al-Baghouz in 2019, five factors have stymied the group’s revival in Syria and Iraq. 1) Local conditions in both Syria and Iraq have militated against ISIS’s return (Syria and Iranian forces have regained control), 2) There has been an ebbing of the Islamic tide not only in Syria and Iraq but across the entire region, 3) the population in the areas where ISIS operated has changed, 4) ISIS just can’t seem to attract new recruits to supplement its ranks and replace its losses, and 5) there has been a significant decline in the proliferation of weapons and financing available to ISIS.
Americas
“After AMLO: The Economic, Security, and Political Outlook in Mexico in 2024” Ryan Berg/Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) sought to transform the politics, economy, and security of Mexico. He calls his wide-ranging series of reforms the “fourth transformation,” placing it on par with other great moments in Mexican history. But as his sexenio—Mexico’s six-year presidential term—ends, and AMLO has no possibility for reelection, the Mexico AMLO will leave his successor is in dire order. What will Mexico look like in 2024?
“Remote work has made downtown DC a ghost town as federal office buildings sit mostly empty” Business Insider
A General Accountability Office (GAO) report released on July 13th has found that 17 of 24 federal agency headquarters are mostly empty – utilizing just 25 percent of their building capacity. Many federal employees are continuing to work remotely. Now, the DC City Government is asking President Biden to either force workers back to work or turn the properties over to the DC government for them to utilize in other ways.
