The Global Week Ahead

Written By Francis Kelly

November 19 - 26, 2023

For the first time in a long time, the coming geopolitical week looks like it will be a relatively quiet one.  The ongoing battle in Gaza between Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) and Hamas will continue to be the focus as Middle Eastern leaders met with China’s top diplomat Minister Wang Yi to discuss finding a way to bring an end to the hostilities.

EU Foreign Ministers will also gather virtually to discuss the Gaza situation as the EU’s top diplomat conducts a whirlwind of meetings in the Middle East seeking to mediate.

Meanwhile, G20 leaders will gather virtually later this week to review issues discussed at the recent summit in New Delhi.  Gaza and the situation in Ukraine will dominate the agenda, as will how leaders can work together to find solutions. 

Washington has gone quiet in the US as Congress has taken the week off for the Thanksgiving holiday.  They return next week, where they will again take up efforts to finalize appropriation bills after passing another last-minute Continuing Resolution (CR) to keep the government running.

On the global economic radar screen, it is a fairly quiet week for major economic reports.  The US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank release meeting minutes this week.  This Friday, markets will also watch PMIs from Europe, Japan, and the US.  Germany will also release Q3 GDP figures on Friday. 

Here is what else we are watching around the world this coming week:

Sunday, November 19, 2023 

Global

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Argentina holds the second round of Presidential elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report.

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report.

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • Today is National Day in Monaco, celebrating the country being ruled by the Grimaldi Family, who took the throne in 1927.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report.

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report.

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report. 

 

Monday, November 20, 2023

Global

  • The Emissions Gap Report 2023 will be launched by the UN Environment Programme (UNEP).  UN Secretary-General, António Guterres, will brief journalists on that report. He will be joined virtually by Inger Andersen, UNEP’s Executive Director, and Anne Olhoff, Chief Scientific Editor of the UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2023.

  • The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on the maintenance of international peace and security: promote sustaining peace through common development.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • US CB Leading Index (October)

  • Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

  • Chile GDP (Q3), Current Account (Q3)

  • Peru GDP (Q3)

  • Uruguay Central Bank Interest Decision

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • The Marshall Islands holds parliamentary elections and a Constitutional referendum.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Taiwan Export Orders (October), Current Accounts (Q3)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • There will be an informal video conference of EU Foreign Affairs Ministers to discuss a humanitarian pause in Gaza. This will happen as EU High Representative Josef Borrell will visit the region.

  • South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol and a business delegation will travel to Europe looking to make further inroads into the region's markets. Winning support for South Korea's bid to host World Expo 2030 in the city of Busan will also be among Yoon's top priorities.

  • NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg will meet the High Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina, Christian Schmidt. He will also meet the Chairlady of the Council of Minister of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Borjana Krišto. He will hold meetings with the President of Serbia, Aleksandar Vučić, and the Prime Minister, Ana Brnabić. Later that day, Stoltenberg will travel to the Republic of North Macedonia to meet with President Stevo Pendarovski and the Prime Minister, Dimitar Kovačevski.

  • The European Economic Area Council meets to discuss the functioning of the European Economic Area Agreement and economic security.

  • The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meets to discuss the EU’s rural areas.

Economic Reports/Events –

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Turkey Central Government Debt

  • Israel Unemployment (October)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report. 

 

Tuesday, November 21, 2023

Global

  • The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on peace and security in Africa and a briefing on Ukraine in the afternoon.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • US FMOC Meeting Minutes Released, Chicago Fed National Activity Index (October), Redbook (November 18), Existing Home Sales (October)

  • Canada Inflation (October), New Housing Price Index (October), CPI (October)

  • Paraguay PPI (October)

  • El Salvador Balance of Trade (October)

  • Costa Rica Balance of Trade (October)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • South Korea PPI (October)

  • Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock participates in a panel discussion at the ASIC Annual Forum in Melbourne, Australia.

  • Reserve Bank of Australia Payments System Board Meeting

  • Hong Kong Inflation (October)

  • Indonesia Current Account (Q3)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • The EU Foreign Affairs Council (Development) to discuss to the situation in Ukraine, aid to Palestine, implementation of the Gender Action Plan III, and follow-up to the EU-CELAC Summit.

Economic Reports/Events –

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Israel Inflation Expectations (November), M1 Money Supply (October)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (September)

  

 

Wednesday, November 22, 2023

Global

  • A G20 Leaders’ Summit will be held virtually and will be hosted by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.  The meeting will give leaders a chance to discuss successes and ongoing challenges to issues discussed at the G20 Summit in India recently.  On December 1, Brazil assumes the chair of the G20 for 2024.

  • The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the 1701 report (the situation in Lebanon).

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • US Durable Goods Orders (October), MBA Mortgage Index (November 17), Initial Jobless Claims (November 18),  Michigan Consumer Sentiment (November), Michigan Consumer Expectations (November), Michigan Inflation Expectations (November)

  • Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem will give a speech before the Saint John Region Chamber of Commerce in New Brunswick.

  • Canada Manufacturing Sales (October), Wholesale Sales (October)

  • Mexico Retail Sales (September)

  • Argentina Economic Activity (September), Leading Indicator (October)

  • Paraguay Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Australia Westpac Leading Index (October)

  • Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock gives a speech at the ABE Annual Dinner in Sydney, Australia

  • Singapore GDP (Q3)

  • Taiwan Unemployment (October)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Turkey Consumer Confidence (November)

  • Egypt Current Account (Q3)

  • Lebanon Inflation (October)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • South Africa Inflation (October)

  •  

 

Thursday, November 23, 2023

Global

  • Today is an official holiday at the UN Headquarters.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • It is the Thanksgiving Holiday in the US. Banks and financial markets are closed.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Mexico Mid-Month Inflation (November)

  • Colombia Business Account (October)

  • Peru Current Account (Q3), Central Bank Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

  • Argentina Retail Sales (September)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI (November), Judo Bank Services PMI (November)

  • Taiwan Industrial Production (October), Retail Sales (October)

  • Singapore Current Account (Q3), Inflation (October), CPI (October)

  • Indonesia Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

  • Sri Lanka Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts

  • ECB Board Member Isabel Schnabel gives a speech at the "Anniversary dinner" of Porto Business School in Porto, Portugal.

  • Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing & Services PMIs(November)

  • Germany HCOB Manufacturing & Services PMIs (November)

  • UK S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing & Services PMIs (November), GfK Consumer Confidence (November)

  • France Business Confidence (November), HCOB Manufacturing & Services PMI (November)

  • Poland M3 Money Supply (October)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Saudi Arabia Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (September)

  • Israel Manufacturing Production (September), Manufacturing PMI (October)

  • Turkey TCMB Interest Rate Decision

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • South Africa Central Bank Interest Rate Decision,  Business Confidence (Q4)

 

Friday, November 24, 2023

Global

  • Nothing Significant to Report.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • US S&P Global Manufacturing & Services PMIs (November)

  • Canada Budget Balance (September), Retail Sales (September)

  • Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (November)

  • Mexico GDP (Q3), Economic Activity (September),  Current Account (Q3)

  • Chile PPI (October)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • The foreign ministers of China, Japan, and South Korea are set to hold their first trilateral meeting since 2019 in Busan, South Korea. The meeting comes following delays caused by issues such as the coronavirus pandemic. The meeting will take place at a time when Seoul and Tokyo are moving closer to the U.S.

  • Today is the deadline for Taiwanese presidential candidates to finalize their registration in order to run in the January 13, 2024 elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Japan Inflation (October), Jibun Bank Manufacturing & Services PMIs (November), Coincident Index (September), Leading Economic Index (September)

  • India FX Reserves (November 17)

  • Singapore Industrial Production (October)

  • Malaysia Inflation (October), Coincident Index (September)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Israel Composite Economic Index (October)

 

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report.

 

 

Saturday, November 25, 2023

Global

  • Nothing Significant to Report.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report.

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report.

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report.

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report.

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Madagascar will announce the preliminary results of its presidential elections. 

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report.

 

 

Sunday, November 26, 2023

Global

  • OPEC+ meets to consider output production.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report.

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report.

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • In the UK, the Booker Prize for Fiction winner will be announced in London.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report.

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report.

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report.

  

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Francis Kelly
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