The Global Week Ahead
Central Banks Dominate the Markets and Politics this Week, Voting Begins in Pennsylvania and a Number of Other States, and the Quad Leaders Meet with President Biden to Discuss Indo-Pacific Security Issues
For markets this coming week, it is all about central bank meetings and interest rates. The U.S. Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, and the Central Bank of Brazil all meet. But of them all, the U.S. Fed’s decision will likely be the most impactful as markets debate whether it is a 25—or 50-basis cut.
Against this global monetary backdrop, voting begins in the U.S., with Pennsylvania kicking off in-person voting and a number of other states beginning mail-in voting. The Fed’s decision to cut rates – if, in fact, that is what they do – is likely to incur the wrath of former President Trump, who has already suggested such a cut two months before the election, is meant to tip the political scales for Vice President Kamala Harris and Democrats. But as this happens, the U.S. Congress seems to be marching toward another government shutdown as House Republicans battle over what should be added to a Continuing Resolution (C.R.) to keep the government open until at least after the elections. History has repeatedly shown that the political party that causes shutdowns pays for it at the ballot box. There is hope a last-minute solution can be reached, but the timeline is getting increasingly tight.
Meanwhile, President Biden will host the Quad Summit in his home state of Delaware this week. The Prime Ministers of India, Japan, and Australia will gather with Biden to discuss the current security situation in the Indo-Pacific and how best to deal with growing tensions with China in the South China Sea and elsewhere. As this is happening – and on a positive note – the top Chinese General in the region, General Wu Yanan, is expected to visit the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command in Hawaii this week. It has been at least three years since such a meeting has taken place and it is considered to be a notable step in improving relations and engagement between China and the U.S. The visit comes after a video conference call between the General Yanan and Admiral Samuel Paparo, Head of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, the first such call in a long time.
Turning back to the global economic radar screen for the week, markets are watching the August US retail sales numbers and industrial production figures. In Europe, the U.K. releases its August inflation prints, while Germany releases the latest ZEW survey. In Asia, Japan’s August CPI and trade balance are out this week, while China releases retail sales and industrial production figures.
Below are the many other important events and releases we are watching this coming week:
Sunday, September 15, 2024
Global
· Muslims worldwide mark "al-Mawlid al-Nabawi", the birthday of Prophet Mohammed.
· The IMF will resume online consultations with Russia ahead of the organization's first visit to the country since 2019.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Argentine President Javier Milei presents budget for 2025 to Congress. He is breaking normal tradition of sending it and instead deliver it in person.
· After signing into law the controversial new judicial reform bill, Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador leads 'cry of independence' ceremony in Mexico City, his final public event as president.
· Costa Rica, El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua all celebrate their respective Independence Days today.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· The 56th ASEAN Economic Ministers Meet (AEM) takes place in Vientiane, Laos.
Economic Reports/Events –
· China FDI (YTD) (August)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Romania holds presidential elections. Independent candidate Mircea Geoană is estimated to secure the most votes, followed closely by the Prime Minister and leader of the Social Democrat Party (PSD), Marcel Ciolacu.
· German Chancellor Olaf Scholz begins his first trip to Central Asia with visits to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. The trip comes after Scholz hosted the leaders of five central Asian nations in Berlin in 2023 to discuss closer cooperation and to find a way to pry away growing relations these nations are building with Russia and China. Scholz will take part in the C5+1 meeting in Kazakhstan (the C5 being Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Tajikistan).
· The NATO Military Committee meets in Prague, Czech Republic.
Economic Reports/Events –
· European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch participates in a fireside chat at the Open Day 2024 of Deutsche Bundesbank in Frankfurt, Germany.
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· In Iran, today is the 2nd anniversary of protests sparked by death of Mahsa Amini arrested for alleged breach of Iran's strict dress code. The government is enforcing a strict lock-down on any protests or visits to her grave.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (August) / Wholesale Prices (August)
· Israel Inflation Rate (August)/ M1 Money Supply (August)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Students in Nigeria will hold nationwide protests over rising fuel prices.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Monday, September 16, 2024
Global
· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the Middle East. Humanitarian Coordinator for Gaza Sigrid Kaag reports to the Council her latest findings.
· UN Security Council The UN nuclear watchdog IAEA holds its annual General Conference in Geneva.
· The UN Special Rapporteurs will press conference on violence and human rights violations in Gaza, occupied Palestinian Territories in Geneva.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Former President Donald Trump launches his cryptocurrency platform World Liberty Financial with a live address from Mar-a-Lago, Florida.
· Pennsylvania beings early voting.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Canada Manufacturing Sales Final (July)/ New Motor Vehicle Sales (July)
· USA NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (September)/ NOPA Crush Report
· Colombia Industrial Production (July)/ Retail Sales (July)
· Paraguay Consumer Confidence (August)
· Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout
· Peru GDP Growth Rate (July)/ Unemployment Rate (August)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· ASEAN Economic ministers gather in Vientiane. The high-level gathering, meant to foster economic cooperation and integration, comes as the region continues to navigate challenges brought by geopolitical tensions and China's slowing economy.
Economic Reports/Events –
· New Zealand Composite & Services NZ PCI (August)
· India Passenger Vehicles Sales (August)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)
· Philippines Cash Remittances (July)
· Kazakhstan Industrial Production (August)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Germany will introduce stricter controls at its land borders for the next six months.
· There will be an informal meeting of EU Research Ministers through September 17 in Budapest, Hungary.
· Audi unions have called for demonstration by auto workers against job losses in Europe.
· An initiative group headed by Armenia's former justice minister will begin collecting signatures on the issue of holding a referendum on Armenia's accession to the European Union.
Economic Reports/Events –
European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos participates in a conversation at event VII Foro Banca organized by El Economista in Madrid, Spain.
European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane gives a speech at the European Investment Bank Chief Economists' meeting in Luxembourg.
· Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (August)
· Euro Area ECB Survey of Monetary Analysts/ ECB Guindos Speech/ Balance of Trade (July)/ Labour Cost Index Q2/ Wage Growth Q2/ ECB Lane Speech
· Italy Inflation Rate Final (August)/ Balance of Trade (July)
· Ireland Balance of Trade (July)
· Serbia Building Permits (July)
· Poland Core Inflation Rate (August)
· Ukraine Balance of Trade (July)
· Turkey Auto Production (August)/ Auto Sales (August)/ Budget Balance (August)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Israel GDP Growth Annualized 2nd Est Q2/ Unemployment Rate (August)
· Oman Inflation Rate (August)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nigeria Food Inflation (August)/ Inflation Rate (August)
· Ethiopia Inflation Rate (August)
Tuesday, September 17, 2024
Global
· In Geneva, A UN sponsored independent international Fact-Finding Mission Venezuela’s latest report to the Human Rights Council will be launched.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Former Bolivian President Evo Morales and allied unions begin march to La Paz to call for his presidential candidacy.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Canada Housing Starts (August)/ Inflation Rate (August)/ CPI Median (August)/ CPI Trimmed-Mean (August)
· USA Retail Sales (August)/ Redbook (September/14)/ Industrial Production (August)/ Capacity Utilization (August)/ Industrial Production (August)/ Manufacturing Production (August)/ Business Inventories (July)/ Fed Logan Speech/ NAHB Housing Market Index (September)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (September/13)/ International Monetary Market (IMM) Date
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Singapore Non-Oil Exports (August)/ Balance of Trade (August)/ Unemployment Rate Final Q2
· Indonesia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)
· Japan Tertiary Industry Index (July)
· India WPI Food & Fuel Index (August)/ WPI Inflation (August)/ WPI Manufacturing (August)
· New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index (September/17)
· Australia RBA Jones Speech
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will announce plans for the make-up of her next commission in the European Parliament.
· The European Parliament will hold its first plenary session since the summer break (its second since EU elections in June) through September 19. They are expected to debate and vote on a resolution on Venezuela and the recent fraudulent elections.
· Moldova will host a ministerial conference within the Moldova Partnership Platform to support the country's European integration. This is being done in conjunction with the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) making a pre-electoral visit to Moldova through September 18 to assess the country's political climate.
· Milan Fashion Week begins. Derek Zoolander will not be there.
Economic Reports/Events –
· European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch gives opening remark at the Supervisory Culture Conference organized by the European Central Bank in Frankfurt, Germany.
· European Central Bank Board Member Elizabeth McCaul participates on a panel entitled Culture and Supervisory Risk Tolerance" at Supervisory Culture Conference organized by the European Central Bank in Frankfurt, Germany.
· European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson participates on a panel Participation entitled "Supervisory Effectiveness" at Supervisory Culture Conference organized by the European Central Bank in Frankfurt, Germany.
· Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (September)
· Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (September)/ ZEW Current Conditions (September)
· Belarus GDP (August)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Israel Current Account Q2
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· South Africa Consumer Confidence Q3
Wednesday, September 18, 2024
Global
· The UN General Assembly will hold a special session, vote on Israeli occupation of Palestinian territories. It is expected they will vote to call on Israel to end military action in Gaza and withdraw. The resolution is expected to call Israel’s actions there as “unlawful.”
· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA).
· The G20 Research and Innovation Ministerial meeting will be held in Manaus, Brazil.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· New York City will hold its Inaugural National Urban Rat Summit on combatting rat infestations.
Economic Reports/Events –
· The US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meets to discuss interest rates. Fed Chair Powell will host a press conference afterward at 2:30 p.m. EST.
· USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (September/13)/ Building Permits Prel (August)/ Housing Starts (August)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (September/13)/ Net Long-term TIC Flows (July)/ Foreign Bond Investment (July)/ Overall Net Capital Flows (July)
· Mexico Aggregate Demand Q2/ Private Spending Q2
· Canada Foreign Securities Purchases (July)/ BoC Summary of Deliberations
· Colombia ISE Economic Activity (July)
· Argentina GDP Growth Rate Q2
· Central Bank of Brazil Interest Rate Decision
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· India's Jammu and Kashmir holds local elections , marking the Himalayan region's first polls in a decade and five years after New Delhi yanked its special autonomy status. The vote will be held over several phases with results expected early next month.
Economic Reports/Events –
· New Zealand Westpac Consumer Confidence Q3/ Current Account Q2
· Japan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)/ Machinery Orders (July)
· Australia Westpac Leading Index (August)
· Indonesia Loan Growth (August)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Lending & Deposit Facility Rate (September)
· India M3 Money Supply (September/06)
· Sri Lanka Manufacturing PMI (August)/ Services PMI (August)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov meets International Committee of the Red Cross President Mirjana Spoljaric in Moscow. Spoljaric will be attending the 4th Eurasian Women’s Forum being held in Moscow.
· Swedish Foreign Minister Maria Malmer Stenergard will make her first foreign visit to Turkey since Turkey allowed Sweden to join NATO.
Economic Reports/Events –
· European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch gives opening remarks at the Supervision Innovators Conference 2024 "Technology and banking supervision connected" organized by the European Central Bank in Frankfurt, Germany.
· European Central Bank Board Member Elizabeth McCaul gives a speech on "The future of European banking supervision - connecting people and technology" at Supervision Innovators Conference 2024 "Technology and banking supervision connected" organized by the European Central Bank in Frankfurt, Germany.
· Great Britain Inflation Rate (August)/ PPI Output (August)/ PPI Input (August)/ Retail Price Index (August)
· Slovakia Harmonized Inflation Rate (August)
· Euro Area ECB Buch Speech/ Inflation Rate Final (August)/ Construction Output (July)/ CPI Final (August)/ ECB McCaul Speech
· Ireland Residential Property Prices (July)
· Russia PPI (August)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Oman M2 Money Supply (July)/ Total Credit (July)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Africa Aerospace and Defence (AAD) Begins in Centurion, South Africa.
· significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· South Africa Inflation Rate (August)/ Retail Sales (July)
· Ghana GDP Growth Rate Q2
· Angola Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)/ M3 Money Supply (August)
Thursday, September 19, 2024
Global
· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the Middle East (Gaza and Israeli settlements).
· G7 Culture Ministers meet Positano, Italy.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Wisconsin starts mailing ballots to voters who requested them.
· Colombia’s Workers Central Union will hold protests in Bogota in support of President Gustavo Petro’s economic and social policies.
Economic Reports/Events –
· USA Current Account Q2/ Initial Jobless Claims (September/14)/ Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (September)/ Philly Fed Business Conditions (September)/ Philly Fed CAPEX Index (September)/ Philly Fed Employment (September)/ Philly Fed New Orders (September)/ Philly Fed Prices Paid (September)/ Existing Home Sales (August)/ CB Leading Index (August)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (September/13)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (September/18)/ Fed Balance Sheet (September/18)
· Colombia Balance of Trade (July)/ Imports (July)
· Argentina Balance of Trade (August)/ Unemployment Rate Q2
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· New Zealand GDP Growth Rate Q2
· The Bank of Japan meets to decide interest rates.
· Japan Foreign Bond Investment (September/14)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (September/14)
· Australia Employment Change (August)/ Participation Rate (August)
· Malaysia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)
· Hong Kong Unemployment Rate (August)
· Taiwan Interest Rate Decision
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· There will be an informal meeting of EU Transportation Ministers in Budapest, Hungary through September 20.
· EU President Ursula von der Leyen will participate in a press conference with Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency, on support to Ukraine’s energy security for the coming winter. Later, she will host a working lunch with the leaders of the six Western Balkan partners.
Economic Reports/Events –
· The Bank of England meets to discuss and decide interest rates.
· European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel participates in an exchange of views on "Current aspects of monetary policy" with Association of German Banks (Committee for Economic and Monetary Policy) in Frankfurt, Germany. Later, she chairs a session entitled “Jean Monnet Lecture” at the 9th ECB Annual Research Conference in Frankfurt.
· European Union New Car Registrations (August)
· Euro Area Current Account (July)
· Switzerland Balance of Trade (August)/ SECO Economic Forecasts
· Poland Corporate Sector Wages (August)/ Employment Growth (August)/ Industrial Production (August)/ PPI (August)
· Italy Current Account (July)
· Serbia Current Account (July)
· Turkey TCMB Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Lending & Borrowing Rate (September)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (September/13)
· Ukraine Interest Rate Decision
· Slovakia Current Account (July)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Israel Inflation Expectations (September)
· Qatar Inflation Rate (August)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· South Africa Building Permits (July)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Prime Overdraft Rate
· Angola Interest Rate Decision
· Kuwait Inflation Rate (August)
Friday, September 20, 2024
Global
· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations on the Middle East (Syria).
· The UN’s Summit of the Future Action Days begins and runs through September 23 in New York. The theme is "#YouthLead for the Future: We believe in the promise of a better world for all".
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Minnesota and South Dakota start mail and in-person early voting; Virginia begins in-person early voting.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker to speak on "The Federal Reserve: It's More Than Just Interest Rates" before the Tulane University Freeman School of Business Lecture event in New Orleans, Louisiana.
· Canada New Housing Price Index (August)/ Retail Sales (July)/ PPI (August)/ Raw Materials Prices (August)
· USA Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (September/20)
· El Salvador Balance of Trade (August)
· Paraguay Interest Rate Decision
· Brazil Federal Tax Revenues (August)
· Argentina Leading Indicator (August)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Japan Inflation Rate (August)/ BoJ Interest Rate Decision
· China Loan Prime Rate 1Y & 5Y (September)
· New Zealand Credit Card Spending (August)
· Hong Kong Current Account Q2/ Inflation Rate (August)
· India Bank Loan Growth (September/06)/ Deposit Growth (September/06)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (September/13)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· The Czech Republic holds the first round of Senate elections.
· Today is the deadline for EU member states under excessive deficit procedure to issue their medium-term fiscal adjustment plans, which most countries are set to miss.
Economic Reports/Events –
· European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives the 2024 Michel Camdessus Central Banking Lecture organized by the IMF in Washington, DC. She then participates in a conversation with IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva at the IMF.
· Bank of England Member of the Monetary Policy Board Catherine Mann gives the keynote speech at the Central Bank Research Association, National Bank of Poland, and Bank of Lithuania 5th Biennial Conference entitled “Macroeconomic adjustments after large global shocks” in Lithuania.
· Bank of England Executive Director for Prudential Policy David Bailey gives a speech at the Building Societies Association entitled “Strong and Simple – Completing the Picture” in London.
· Great Britain Gfk Consumer Confidence (September)/ Retail Sales (August)/ Public Sector Net Borrowing (August)
· Germany PPI (August)
· France Business Confidence (September)
· Switzerland Current Account Q2
· Turkey Consumer Confidence (September)/ Central Government Debt (August)
· Greece Current Account (July)
· Italy Construction Output (June)/ Construction Output (July)
· Spain Balance of Trade (July)
· Slovenia Consumer Confidence (September)/ PPI (August)/ Unemployment Rate (July)
· Euro Area Consumer Confidence Flash (September)
· Slovakia Unemployment Rate (August)
· Russia Consumer Confidence Q3
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Qatar M2 Money Supply (August)/ Total Credit Growth (August)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Ivory Coast Inflation Rate (August)
· Ghana PPI (August)
Saturday, September 21, 2024
Global
· The G20 Tourism Ministerial Meetings take place in Belem, Brazil.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Today is the federal deadline for all absentee ballots to be mailed to military and overseas voters. Eleven states will send out their mail-in ballots by this day, and North Carolina is expected to as well.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Sri Lanka holds Presidential elections.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Oktoberfest begins in Munich, Germany and runs through October 6.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nigeria holds gubernatorial elections.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Sunday, September 22, 2024
Global
· Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Thailand New Car Sales (August)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· In Germany, the state of Brandenburg holds state elections.
· Switzerland holds a referendum vote on initiative to strengthen biodiversity protection.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Today in South Sudan is the deadline for dissolution of the transitional unity government ahead of possible December elections.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.