The Global Week Ahead

March 5 - 12, 2023

Events in China will be center stage this week. China’s People’s National Congress, composed of more than 5,000 Party members, will officially confirm President Xi Jinping as President and also select a new Premier.  Additionally, the Party will ratify a series of institutional reforms. 

EU President Ursula von der Leyen will visit Canada early in the week to discuss Canada’s ability to supply the EU with critical minerals. She will then travel to Washington, DC, to meet with President Biden. They will discuss Ukraine and the ongoing tensions between the US and EU over the recently passed Inflation Reduction Act and its impact on the EU’s electric vehicle industry.

Also, this week, the Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) will meet to discuss Iran’s nuclear program. IAEA Secretary-General Raphael Grossi held unexpected meetings with senior Iranian officials in Tehran on Friday in an effort to persuade Iran to reverse course on rapidly developing a nuclear weapons program.

Markets will also be focused on Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell’s testimony before Congress this week. The US jobs report will also be front and center later this week. 

Japan’s Central Bank will also meet this week to consider interest rate increases. It will be the last meeting of BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda before stepping down. We expect the Japanese Diet (Parliament) to confirm Governor-nominee Kazuo Ueda and two new Deputy Governors, Ryozo Himino and Shinichi Uchida.

Here is what else we are watching around the world this coming week: 

Sunday, March 5, 2023:

Global

·       The Fifth United Nations Conference on the Least Developed Countries (LDC5) begins in Doha, Qatar. The conference will run through March 9th.  UN Secretary-General António Guterres will deliver the opening speech.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       South Korean National Security Director Kim Sung-Han will travel to Washington, D.C., to discuss bilateral cooperation with North Korea, as well as economic and regional security issues.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The German cabinet will meet today and tomorrow at the Meseberg Castle to try to hammer out a number of issues causing friction between the coalition members.  These include finding areas where the government can save money and reinstate the so-called “debt brake,” which limits the amount of money German states can spend and earn. The debt brake was suspended during COVID.

·       Estonia holds parliamentary elections.

·       Today is the 70th anniversary of Joseph Stalin.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Tunisia’s opposition party, the National Salvation Front, and the Tunisian General Labor Union are expected to protest against the rule of President Kais Saied in defiance of local governmental decisions to deny permits to protest. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, March 6, 2023:

Global

·       The World Trade Organization (WTO) holds a General Council meeting (the highest-level decision-making body) through March 7th.

·       The Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) will meet in Vienna, Austria.  It is expected they will discuss IAEA’s Director-General Rafael Grossi’s meeting last week, with the Head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI), Mohammad Eslami, in Tehran, Iran. IAEA) has confirmed that traces of highly enriched uranium particles, up to 84 percent, were recently found in Iran. This is the closest Iran has gotten to reaching the 90 percent threshold required for weapons-grade nuclear fuel. 

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS). The Special Representative of the Secretary-General for South Sudan and Head of UNMISS, Nicholas Haysom, will brief reporters at the Security Council Stakeout after the Security Council meeting on South Sudan.  In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations on the Middle East (Syria).  

·       The UNESCO - EU H2020 LimnoPlast Conference - Diving into Freshwater Microplastic Pollution - connecting Water, Environmental and Social Sciences begins in Paris, France, and will continue until March 8th.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US Senate and the US House of Representatives are in session this week.

·       US Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler will participate in a fireside chat with the Council of Institutional Investors in Washington, D.C.

·       Office of the Comptroller of the Currency Acting Comptroller Michael Hsu will speak on crypto at the Institute of International Bankers Annual Conference in Washington, D.C., also speaking will be FDIC Chair, Martin Gruenberg.

·       The CERAWeek Conference is held in Houston, Texas.  It is one of the largest energy conferences in the world and will feature energy ministers, CEOs, and leading analysts.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Factor Orders (January), LMI Logistics Managers Index (February)

·       Canada Ivey PMI (February)

·       Mexico Auto Production/Auto Exports (February)

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout, Car Production/New Car Registrations (February)

·       Ecuador Inflation Rate (February)

·       Costa Rica Inflation (February)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Indonesia’s Foreign Minister Retno L.P. Marsudi will meet with Japanese Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi, in Tokyo as part of a celebration of the 65th anniversary of Indonesia-Japan diplomatic relations and 50 years of ASEAN-Japan partnership.

·       Japan will attempt again to launch its H3 medium-lift rocket after it called off a Feb. 17 launch.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea FX Reserves (February), Inflation Rate (February), CPI (February)

·       Australia TD-MI Inflation Gauge (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       In the UK, further NHS ambulance worker strikes by members of the Unite union are expected. But the Unison and GMB unions, which represent many more ambulance workers in England, have called off their industrial action after what they described as a “huge shift” in the government’s position.

·       Also in the UK, members of the Unite members will strike at the Drax power station in Yorkshire.

·       Additionally, in the UK, driving examiners who are part of the Public and Commercial Services (PCS) union begin a program of rolling strikes over pay, pensions, and jobs.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Board Member Philip R. Lane gives a lecture at Trinity College in Dublin, Ireland.

·       Eurozone S&P Global Construction PMI (February), Retail Sales (January)

·       Germany S&P Global Construction PMI (February)

·       France S&P Global Construction PMI (February), Retail Sales (January)

·       Italy S&P Global Construction PMI (February)

·       UK S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI (February)

·       Spain Consumer Confidence (February)

·       Switzerland Inflation (February), CPI (February)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Turkey’s political opposition parties, working in an alliance, are expected to announce their mutual decision on a presidential candidate to run against President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. However, it appears the alliance is struggling to stay together on their decision and may fracture before the elections in May.

Economic Reports/Events –

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Ghana celebrates Independence Day, which they achieved from the UK in 1957.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria Balance of Trade (October/November/December 2022)

Tuesday, March 7, 2023: 

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on Women and peace and security: Towards the 25th anniversary of resolution 1325 (2000). 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US Senate Banking Committee’s  Economic Policy Subcommittee will hold in the afternoon (following Fed Chair Powell’s Semiannual Monetary Policy Report in the morning) a hearing on “The Federal Debt Limit and its Economic and Financial Consequences.”

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell gives the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Senate Banking Committee.  

·       US IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (March), Wholesale Inventories (January), Redbook (March 4), Consumer Credit Change (January)

·       Mexico Consumer Confidence (February)

·       El Salvador Inflation (February)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       ASEAN holds the 5th Defense Interaction Program, Jakarta, Indonesia.

·       China’s New Foreign Minister Quin Gang gives his first press briefing.  He is expected to share his views on China’s foreign policy goals.

·       Micronesia holds parliamentary elections.  

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China FX Reserves (February), Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (January-February)

·       Japan FX Reserves (February), Overtime Pay (January)

·       South Korea GDP (Q4)

·       Taiwan Imports/Exports/ Balance of Trade (February), Inflation Rate (February)

·       Hong Kong FX Reserves (February)

·       The Reserve Bank of Australia will meet to decide interest rates.  Later in the day, RBA Governor Philip Lowe will speak at the AFR Business Summit, Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (January), Retail Sales (January)

·       Philippines Inflation (February), FX Reserves (February)

·       Indonesia FX Reserves (February)

·       Pakistan Balance of Trade (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       EU Defense Ministers hold an informal meeting through March 8th in Stockholm, Sweden.  They will discuss the EU’s military support for Ukraine and hold a working lunch with UN and NATO representatives led by NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg.

·       EU President Ursula von der Leyen begins a visit to Canada, travels to Canadian Forces Base Kingston; meets with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau; addresses a Joint Session of Parliament; joint visit with Prime Minister Trudeau of a Canadian clean technology company.  One of the key issues she will discuss with Trudeau is how Canada can better supply the EU with raw materials, particularly minerals needed for electric vehicles.

·       EU Education, Youth Culture and Sports Council (Education) meets in Brussels to discuss teacher shortages.

·       France is expecting additional widespread strikes in opposition to pension reform being considered by the French Parliament.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany Factory Orders (January)

·       UK BRC Retails Sales Monitor (February), Halifax House Price Index (February), BBA Mortgage Rate (February)

·       France FX Reserves (February)

·       Spain Industrial Production (January)

·       Switzerland Unemployment (February), FX Reserves (February)

·       Poland FX Reserves (February)

·       Ukraine FX Reserves (February)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Business Confidence (February), FX Reserves (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Zambia FX Reserves (February), GDP (Q4)

Wednesday, March 8, 2023:

Global

·       Today is International Women’s Day.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations on the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA).  

·       The World Baseball Classic begins in Japan, Taiwan, and the US.  It is the first time the tournament has been played since 2017.  More than 20 teams will participate.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US House Budget Committee will hold a hearing on the “Fiscal State of the Union.”

·       In Ecuador, The Confederation of Indigenous Nationalities of Ecuador will hold anti-government demonstrations.

·       The US tech firm Relativity Space plans to launch the world’s first 3D-printed rocket from Cape Canaveral Space Force Station, Florida.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell testifies gives the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report before the House Financial Services Committee.

·       US Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (January), MBA Mortgage Index (March), ADP Employment (February), JOLTs Reports (January), WASDE Report

·       Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision, Exports/Imports/Balance of Change (January)

·       Colombia Consumer Confidence (February)

·       Argentina Industrial Production (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       China and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) will convene in Indonesia to resume negotiations over the South China Sea code of conduct until March 10.  This is the first meeting since Indonesia took over the chair of ASEAN this year.  China has overlapping geographical claims with several Southeast Asian countries.

·       South Korea’s ruling People Power Party (840,000 members) will cast ballots on who will take the leadership of the party.

·       Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese will visit India for the first time as Prime Minister for talks on security and trade with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.  Both are members of the Quad (Australia, India, Japan, and the US), which just announced the establishment of a Working Group on Counter-Terrorism.

·       Nepal will choose a new president in elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australian Central Bank Governor Lowe speaks…, RBA Chart Pack

·       China FX Reserves (February)

·       India M3 Money Supply (February 20)

·       Japan Current Account (January), Bank Lending (February), Coincident Index (January), Eco Watchers Survey (February), Leading Economic Index (January)

·       Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (February)

·       Indonesia Consumer Confidence (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Development Ministers will hold an informal meeting in Stockholm, Sweden, through March 9th. They will discuss global health issues with World Health Organization Director-General Tedros Adhanom, and the role of multilateral development banks in fighting climate change, pandemics, and armed conflict.  They will conclude the meeting with a working lunch on reconstruction support for Ukraine.

·       TO BE CONFIRMED: UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is expected to bring the newly negotiated Post-Brexit Northern Ireland Trade Protocol to the Parliament for approval.

·       Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis will dissolve Parliament ahead of the country's general elections on April 9. The conservative government’s  (led by the New Democracy party) term ends in July.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Board Member Christine Lagarde participates in a discussion with Ms. Okonjo-Iweala at International Women’s Day event organized by World Trade Organization (WTO) in Geneva, Switzerland. 

·       ECB Board Member Fabio Panetta gives introductory remarks at a meeting of the Euro Cyber Resilience Board for pan-European Financial Infrastructures.

·       Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Dr. Swaiti Dhingra will speak at the Resolution Foundation on “A Cost-of-Living Crisis: Inflation during an unprecedented term of trade shock” in London.

·       Eurozone GDP (Q4), Employment Change (Q4)

·       Germany Industrial Production (January), Retail Sales (January)

·       Italy Retail Sales (January)

·       Poland Interest Rate Decision

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report. 

Thursday, March 9, 2023:

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Biden will release his fiscal 2024 budget proposal to Congress.

·       Concordia holds its 2023 Concordia Americas Summit in Miami, Florida, through March 10th.  A number of US and Latin American senior political figures, CEOs, and scholars are expected to speak. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr will speak on crypto regulation at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, Washington, D.C.

·       US Challenger Job Cuts (February), Initial Jobless Claims (March 4)

·       Mexico Inflation (February)

·       Paraguay GDP (Q4), Inflation Rate (February)

·       Uruguay Inflation (February)

·       Peru Interest Rate Decision, Balance of Trade (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japan’s Lower House is expected to vote to confirm the next Governor and two Deputy Governors of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda,  and two new Deputy Governors, Ryozo Himino and Shinichi Uchida.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Inflation (February), PPI (February)

·       Japan GDP (Q4), Machine Tool Orders (February), Consumer Confidence (February)

·       Australia Building Permits (January), Private House Approvals (January)

·       Philippines Unemployment (January), Industrial Production)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       In Brussels, Turkey, Sweden, and Finland hold talks in Brussels about the two Nordic nations’ respective bids to become fully fledged members of NATO.  Turkey continues to hold up Sweden’s membership over concerns that alleged Turkish terrorists are being harbored in Sweden.

·       EU Trade Ministers will hold informal meetings in Stockholm, Sweden, through March 10th.  They are expected to discuss EU-US trade issues and trade support for Ukraine.

·       The EU Justice and Home Affairs Council will meet through March 10th in Brussels.  They will discuss asylum and immigration issues, the future of visa policy in the EU, internal security issues in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the EU charter of fundamental rights and the civic space.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Executive Director for Financial Stability Strategy and Risk, Sarah Breeden, will give a speech on macro-prudential/monetary policy interactions at Leeds University.

·       Eurozone Inflation Rate (January)

·       UK RICS House Price Balance (February)

·       France Non-Farm Payrolls (Q4)

·       Italy Inflation Rate (February)

·       Russia FX Reserves (February), Corporate Profits (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Budget Balance (February), Current Account (Q4), Tourist Arrivals (February)

·       Saudi Arabia GDP (Q4), Industrial Production (January)

·       Egypt Inflation (February)

·       Turkey FX Reserves (March 3)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Kenya is bracing for nationwide protests against the government's response to the cost-of-living crisis.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Zambia Current Account (Q4), Business Confidence (Q1) 

Friday, March 10, 2023:

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Florida Governor Ron DeSantis visits Iowa.  He will make visits later this month to Nevada and New Hampshire in advance of a likely presidential bid.

·       The SXSW 2023 Conference kicks off in Austin, Texas.  This conference will focus on artificial intelligence, security, privacy, and social media platforms.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Unemployment (February), Monthly Budget Statement (February)

·       Canada Unemployment (February), Participation Rate (February), Capacity Utilization (Q4)

·       Brazil Business Confidence (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japan’s Upper House is expected to vote to confirm the next Governor of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda,  and two new Deputy Governors, Ryozo Himino and Shinichi Uchida.

·       China’s President Xi is officially confirmed by the People’s National Congress.  Additionally, the new institutional reform plan will be confirmed.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision and press conference by Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda, Household Spending (January), PPI (February)

·       China New Yuan Loans (February), Outstanding Loan Growth (February), Total Social Financing (February), M2 Money Supply (February), Vehicle Sales (February)

·       India FX Reserves (March 3), Deposit Growth/Bank Loan Growth (February), Industrial Production (January), Manufacturing Production (January)

·       South Korea Current Account (January)

·       Philippines FDI (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       EU President Ursula von der Leyen travels to Washington, DC, to meet with President Joe Biden.  They are expected to discuss the Ukraine War as well as US-EU trade tensions. Additionally, The focus of the meetings will be “collaboration” on clean innovation, supply chains for green technology, and “rallying the world behind a global net zero emissions goal.”

·       UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak visits Paris to meet with French President Emmanuel Macron.  The meeting is an effort to revive ties after recent political and trade tensions.

·       In the UK, a 36-hour strike begins this evening over pay by more than 100 rail engineering workers employed by Balfour Beatty and members of the RMT union, the second in a series of walkouts this month.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB President Christine Lagarde meets with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in Berlin, Germany.

·       ECB Board Member Fabio Panetta gives a presentation on the digital euro at a meeting of the Executive Committee of the European Banking Federation in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       ECB Board Member Elizabeth McCaul participates in a panel in the conference "The New Frontiers in Digital Finance" organized by Commissione Nazionale per le Società e la Borsa in Rome, Italy.

·       Germany Inflation (February), CPI (February)

·       UK GDP (January), Manufacturing Production (January), Industrial Production (January), Goods Trade Balance (January), Balance of Trade (January), Construction Output (January), NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (February)

·       France Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (January), Current Account (January)

·       Spain Retail Sales (January)

·       Italy PPI (January)

·       Poland Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       Ukraine Inflation (February)

·       Russia Inflation (February)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Unemployment (January), Industrial Production (January), Participation Rate (January)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Rwanda Inflation (February)

Saturday, March 11, 2023:

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       China’s new Premier will be confirmed by the People’s National Congress. It is expected Li Quing will be chosen.

·       Today is the 12th anniversary of the Great East Japan Earthquake, tsunami, and nuclear crisis at the Fukushima Daiichi power plant.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Lithuania celebrates Independence Restoration Day.

·       UK’s Green Party begins its Spring Conference.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nigeria, having just finished presidential and parliamentary elections, will again head to the polls to elect state governors and state assembly representatives.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, March 12, 2023:

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US Daylights Savings begins in the United States, advancing the clock one hour.

·       The Academy Awards are held in Los Angeles, California.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel GDP (Q4)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Cameroon holds Senate elections.

·       Mauritius celebrates Independence Day, gaining its independence from the UK in 1968.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

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