Recommended Weekend Reads
March 3 - 5, 2023
We thought you might find the following useful reading. Let us know your thoughts and if you or a colleague want to be added to our distribution list. Have a great weekend.
· “How the Biggest Fraud in German History Unravelled” The New Yorker
The tech company Wirecard was embraced by the German élite. But a reporter discovered that behind the façade of innovation were lies and links to Russian intelligence.
· “Assessing the Impact of International Sanctions on Russian Oil Exports” Tania Babina (Columbia Business School), Benjamin Hilgenstock (IIF) Oleg Itskhoki (UCLA), Maxim Mironov (IE Business School), and Elina Ribakova (IIF)
The authors use a unique high-frequency Russian customs dataset to evaluate the impact of international sanctions on Russia – focusing on Russian crude oil and oil products exports, as they are the key sources of export earnings and government revenues. We study the effects of two focal sanctions measures – the EU embargo and G7 price cap on Russian seaborne crude oil, which both took effect on December 5, 2022. We find that Russia was able to redirect crude oil exports from Europe to alternative markets such as India, China, and Turkey but that export earnings were curbed substantially by the sizable discounts that Russian exporters had to accept in market segments.
· “China’s Revolution in Family Structure: A Huge Demographic Blind Spot with Surprises Ahead” Nicholas Eberstadt and Ashton Verdery, American Enterprise Institute
The study’s simulations show that the Chinese family is about to undergo a radical and historically unprecedented transition, as extended kinship networks atrophy across the nation and close blood relatives disappear altogether for many. This fraying of the extended family and atomization of the nuclear family come at an almost exquisitely inopportune moment in China: Social needs are soaring alongside the rising tally of elderly dependents and the shrinking ranks of those on whom the elderly can rely—two social indicators poised for inescapable collision in the years immediately ahead. Indeed, the withering of the Chinese family as we now know it will make for new and unfamiliar challenges at every stage in the life cycle, for both Chinese people and the Chinese state.
Chart of the Week
In a new poll released on March 3rd by Gallup, “sixty-five percent of Americans prefer the US to take the leading role (20 %) or a major role (45 %). This is down from 69 % in 2019 and 72 % in 2017.
Fewer Republicans and independents than in any prior year advocate for a prominent international role for the U.S. The percentage of Republicans wanting the U.S. to take the lead or have a major role in world affairs is significantly lower than the group’s prior low of 69% in 2011. It also marks a sharp departure from what Republicans wanted during the George W. Bush administration when more than 80% of Republicans favored a leading or major role for the U.S.”
