The Global Week Ahead

Written By Francis Kelly

October 22 - 29, 2023

 The situation in Israel and Gaza continues to dominate the focus of markets as Israel is expected to launch land forces into Gaza soon to eliminate the Hamas threat.  The race to find and free the 200-plus hostages has intensified, but with little luck.  As all this occurs, Iran and their proxy forces in Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen continue ramp up attacks on Israel, all as the US moves more naval forces into the region.

Elsewhere around the world this coming week, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese visits Washington to meet with President Biden to discuss the AUKUS security agreement (Australia/UK/US) and advancing trade ties between the two nations.  As this happens,  California Governor Gavin Newsom travels to China to discuss bilateral California-China trade ties.  The trip is a gamble for Newsom, who has little foreign policy experience and is putting himself in the middle of still-tense US-China relations. 

Back in Washington, House Republicans return to work today to figure out who they can agree on to be the next Speaker of the House.  There are now nine announced candidates for the role, suggesting the situation is far from settled and will likely paralyze the House for some time.

On the global economic radar screen, the week's big event will occur in Athens, Greece, where the European Central Bank (ECB) meets to consider another interest rate increase.  Canada's Reserve Bank also meets this week to consider interest rates.

In the US, we will be watching for new GDP numbers and personal income and spending data (both of which are closely watched by the Federal Reserve as a key data point). 

Here is what else we are watching around the world this coming week:

Sunday, October 22, 2023

Global

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • In Japan, voters in Nagasaki and Tokushima-Kochi held votes for lower and upper house candidates.  The outcome of the elections are expected to influence if and when Prime Minister Fumio Kishida holds snap elections and in both elections, his Liberal Democratic Party lost.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • EU President Ursula von der Leyen delivers a speech at the „Deutschlandtag“ of the Junge Union Deutschlands, Brunswick, Germany.

  • Switzerland held elections for the Council of States and National Council.  Voters voted for conservative candidates, largely out of concerns over rising immigration.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

 

Monday, October 23, 2023

Global

  • The World Trade Organization’s Minsters meeting is held in Geneva.  They will meet to discuss the agenda for the 2024 WTO Conference.

  • In the morning, the UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the United Nations Integrated Office in Haiti (BINUH), followed by consultations in the afternoon. also in the afternoon, the Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the United Nations Interim Administration Mission in Kosovo(UNMIK).

  • The UN’s 35th Meeting of the Parties to the Montreal Protocol takes place in Nairobi, Kenya from 23-27 October.  The parties to the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer will meet to discuss issues on ongoing ozone layer monitoring and protection, as well as emerging issues such as geoengineering, very short-lived substances, and increasing levels of emissions that are not ozone depleting but potent greenhouse gases among others. Crucially, parties will also start discussions on the replenishment of the Multilateral Fund for the next triennium 2024-2026. A symposium on cold chain and a workshop on energy efficiency will also take place on 21 and 22 October.

  • The UN-sponsored Latin America and Caribbean Climate Week takes place in Panama City from 23 to 27 October. Like the other Regional Climate Weeks, the event provides a platform for policymakers, practitioners, businesses and civil society to discuss climate solutions, barriers to overcome and opportunities realized in different regions ahead of COP28. Hosted by the Government of Panama, other global partners include the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and the World Bank.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • The US House Republican Caucus will meet to consider who should be the next Speaker of the House.  There are now nine (9) announced candidates for the post, the largest number to date.  They include Republican Representatives Jack Bergman (MI) Byron Donalds (FL) Tom Emmer (MN) Kevin Hern (OK) Mike Johnson (LA) Dan Meuser (PA) Gary Palmer (AL) Austin Scott (GA) Pete Sessions (TX).  Whomever is chosen will be voted on by the full House on Tuesday.

  • Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese meets with President Joe Biden in Washington.  They are expected to discuss the AUKUS security program, climate change, and access to critical minerals.

  • Brent Neiman, U.S. Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for International Finance will speak at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies on current global financial issues in Washington, D.C.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • US Chicago Fed National Activity Index (September)

  • Mexico Economic Activity (August)

  • Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

  • Costa Rica Balance of Trade (September)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida will give a major policy speech before an extraordinary session of the Japanese Diet (parliament).  It is expected he will outline a significant economic stimulus plan which will include tax cuts.

  • Former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan set to face indictment in leaked documents case.

  • Vietnam’s National Assembly opens its fall session with nine major pieces of legislation before them, including highly-controversial bills dealing with land, housing, and property firms.

  • China's major e-commerce platforms begin the Singles Day shopping festival, which spans about three weeks through Nov. 11. 

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Singapore CPI (September), Inflation (September)

  • Taiwan Retail Sales (September), Unemployment (September)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • The EU Foreign Affairs Council will meet in Luxembourg to discuss the situation in Ukraine, and tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan as well as the situation in Israel and Gaza. It is expected they will also discuss EU ministers to hold final discussions in Luxembourg on a security mission to the Gulf of Guinea, potentially resulting in the deployment of police and soldiers to Ghana, Togo, Benin and Cote d'Ivoire.

  • The 20th meeting of the EU-Kazakhstan Cooperation Council takes place in Luxembourg.  It is also expected they will discuss the state of play and next steps of the EU-Kazakhstan Enhanced Partnership and Cooperation Agreement. It will then exchange views on political, economic and trade matters (including internal reforms, rule of law and human rights, efforts to address sanction circumvention, cooperation facility, critical raw materials and sustainable connectivity) and cooperation. They will also discuss regional and international developments and cooperation, Global Gateway Team Europe Initiatives and security.

  • The EU Agriculture and Fisheries  Council meets Luxembourg through October 24.  The will discuss the market situation in light of the Ukraine War.  The Ukrainian Minister of Agriculture will address the Council.  They will go on to discuss the Waste Framework Directive and fishing opportunities in 2024 in the Baltic Sea.

  • There will be an informal meeting of the EU Telecommunications Ministers through October 24 in León, Spain. 

  • Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen will visit Japan and hold meetings with Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida through October 26.  It is expected they will discuss mutual defense and security issues and the prospects for increased trade ties.

  • Hungarian Prime Minister Vicktor Orbán will give a major speech on Republic Day, the anniversary of the country’s failed 1956 uprising against Soviet rule.

 

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Eurozone Consumer Confidence (October)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Turkey Consumer Confidence (October)

  • Israel Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

  • Lebanon Inflation (September)

  • Qatar GDP (Q2)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Nigeria’s former minister of petroleum, Diezani Alison-Madueke, will challenge the seizure of assets by the country’s anti-graft body in court. The agency said it recovered assets worth $153 million from Madueke.

  • Nigeria’s Supreme Court will hear an opposition challenge to the disputed February presidential election won by Bola Tinubu. A tribunal last month rejected challenges by Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi, who polled second and third respectively.

  • The Climate Chance Summit Africa 2023 will bring together 600 African actors from the broader climate change community at the Institut Français in Yaoundé, Cameroon.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report

 

 

Tuesday, October 24, 2023

Global

  • The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on the Middle East.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • The House of Representatives is expected to vote on a new Speaker of the House (although there will be a successful outcome).

Economic Reports/Events –

  • US Redbook (October 21), S&P PMIs (October), Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (October), Richmond Fed Services Index (October)

  • Canada New Housing Price Index (September)

  • Mexico Mid-Month Inflation Rate (October)

  • Chile PPI (September)

  • Argentina Economic Activity (August)

  • Costa Rica Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Japan Jibun PMIs (October)

  • South Korea PPI (September)

  • Australia Judo Bank PMIs (October), Reserve Bank of Australia Director Michele Bullock gives her first speech as Governor in Sydney at the Commonwealth Bank Global Markets Conference.

  • Indonesia FDI (Q3)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • The EU General Affairs Council meets in Luxembourg to discuss the annual rule of law dialogue and prepare for the European Council meeting on October 26 and 27.

  • More than 450 Cambridge University staff will go on strike over pay.

  • The first Euro-Namibia Business Forum to take place in Brussels. 

Economic Reports/Events –

Eurozone HCOB PMIs (October)

  • Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (November), HCOB PMIs (October)

  • UK Unemployment (August), S&P Global/CIPS PMIs (October), Labor Productivity (Q2), CBI Business Optimism Index (Q4)

  • Ireland Residential Property Prices (August)

  • France HCOB PMIs (October)

  • Hungary Gross Wage (August)

  • Poland Unemployment (September)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Egypt Current Account (Q2)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Today is Zambia Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report

 

 

Wednesday, October 25, 2023

 Global

  • The European Union will host the Global Gateway meetings, which are comprised of approximately 20 countries seeking to boost global infrastructure development.  The Gateway program began in 2021 with the aim of focusing on emerging countries and encouraging private-public partnerships.  More than half of the funding (approximately $320 million) is being spent in Africa, with the rest distributed in Asia and Latin America.  Global Gateway is seen as the EU’s (small) effort to counter China’s Belt & Road Initiative. EU President Ursula von der Leyen will give the opening remarks

  • The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on women and Peace and Security.

  • The UN hosts a hybrid briefing by Francesca Albanese, Special Rapporteur on “the situation of human rights in the Palestinian territories occupied since 1967.”  This will be followed by another briefing by the Independent International Commission on Inquiry “on the Occupied Palestinian territory, including East Jerusalem, and Israel.”

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • The US Senate Foreign Relations Committee will meet to consider the nomination of Jack Lew to be the new US Ambassador to Israel.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • US Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell gives Introductory Remarks at the 2023 Moynihan Lecture in Social Science and Public Policy, Washington, D.C.

  • US MBA Mortgage Index (October 20), New Homes Sales (September), Building Permits (September)Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision, Monetary Policy Report

  • Argentina Retail Sales (August)

  • Brazil Federal Tax Revenues (September)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Hong Kong Chef Executive John Lee will give a major policy address to unveil his plan to address the faltering property market, business confidence, and geopolitical tensions.  Last year, Lee a top-talent visa scheme to plug a brain drain sparked by a national security crackdown and harsh pandemic restrictions. This time around, economists are hoping property cooling measures will be scrapped to slow falling home prices, while political observers are expecting a lighter emphasis on national security.

  • Shanghai Cooperation Organization heads of government meeting to take place in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan.  China’s Premier Li Quang is scheduled to attend and then make an official visit to the Kyrgyzstan Republic.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Japan Coincident Index (August), Leading Economic Index (August)

  • South Korea Consumer Confidence (October)

  • Australia Inflation (Q3), Monthly CPI Indicator (September), CPI (September)

  • Philippines Budget Balance (September)

  • Malaysia Coincident Index (August)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • The EU Tripartite Social Summit will be held in Brussels.  The Forum brings together EU leaders and social partners where they will discuss “How to make Europe the place to be for industrial investments creating growth and quality jobs?”   The participating social groups include BusinessEurope, The European Trade Union Confederation, Eurocadres, SGI Europe, and SMEunited.

  • NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg visits Sweden, where he will give a speech on the new security and strategy reality.  He will also meet with Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson, the Minister of Defense Pål Jonson, and the Minister of Foreign Affairs Tobias Billström, along with the Speaker of the Swedish Parliament, Andreas Norlén.

  • Russian President Vladimir Putin will meet with Russian religious leaders, including Patriarch Kirill.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • ECB President Christine Lagarde gives a speech at the official dinner hosted by the
    Bank of Greece in Athens, Greece.  This comes the evening before the ECB meets to decide on a likely rate increase.

  • Eurozone Loans to Companies & Households (September0, M3 Money Supply (September)

  • Germany Ifo Business Climate (October), Ifo Current Conditions (October), Ifo Expectations (October)

  • France Unemployment (September)

  • Greece Total Credit (September)

  • Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index (October)

  • Spain PPI (September)

  • Slovenia Business Confidence (October), Tourist Arrivals (September), PPI (September)

  • Bosnia and Herzegovina Inflation (September), PPI (September), Industrial Production (September)

  • Bulgaria Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

  • Russia Industrial Production (September)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Saudi Arabia Balance of Trade (August)

  • Kuwait Private Bank Lending (September), M2 Money Supply (September)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • The Africa Air Force Forum, hosted by the Senegalese Air Force, begins in Dakar, Senegal, and runs through October 26.

  • The African Development Bank will host a Symposium focused on data innovation and associated technologies.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Zimbabwe Inflation (October)

 

 

Thursday, October 26, 2023

Global

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report

Economic Reports/Events –

  • US Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives opening remarks at the Economics of Payments XII Conference, Washington, D.C.

  • US Durable Goods Orders (September), GDP (Q3), Goods Trade Balance (September), Initial Jobless Claims (October 2), Retail Sales Inventories (September), Retail Consumer Spending (Q3), Pending Home Sales (September), EIA Natural Gas Stocks (October 2), Kansas Fed Manufacturing/Composite Indexes (October)

  • Canada CFIB Business Barometer (October), Manufacturing Sales (September), Average Weekly Earnings (August)

  • Mexico Unemployment (September)

  • Brazil Current Account (September), Foreign Direct Investment (August), IPCA Mid-Month CPI (October), PPI (September)

  • Chile Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • South Korea Business Confidence (October), GDP (Q3)

  •  Australia Export Prices/Import Prices (Q3)

  • Singapore Industrial Production (September)

  • Hong Kong Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (September)

  • Thailand Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (September)

  • Malaysia PPI (September)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • European Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

  • Bank of England Deputy Governor Sir Jon Cunliffe gives a speech at The Economics of Payments XII Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Board in Washington, D.C.  

  • UK Car Production (September), CBI Distributive Trades (October)

  • Spain Unemployment (Q3)

  • Ukraine Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Israel Composite Economic Index (September), Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (September)

  • Turkey Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, FX Reserves (October 20)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report

Economic Reports/Events –

  • South Africa PPI (September)

  • Botswana Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

 

 

Friday, October 27, 2023

Global

  • The UN Security Council is expected to hold a private meeting, International Court of Justice (ICJ) briefing.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Japan Tokyo CPI (October)

  • India FX Reserves (October 20)

  • Australia ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (October), PPI (Q3)

  • Singapore URA Property Index (Q3), Unemployment (Q3), Import/Export Prices (September), PPI (September)

  • Taiwan Consumer Confidence (October)

  • Vietnam Foreign Direct Investment (October)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • The Euro Summit is held in Brussels.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • France GDP (Q3), Inflation (October), Consumer Confidence (October)

  • Hungary Unemployment (September)

  • Spain GDP (Q3), Retail Sales (September)

  • Bulgaria Tourist Arrivals (September)

  • Italy Business Confidence (October), Consumer Confidence (October)

  • Slovenia Retail Sales (September)

  • Ireland Inflation (October), Retail Sales (September), Industrial Sales (August)

  • Russia Central Bank Interest Decision

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Bahrain Inflation (September), M2 Money Supply (September)

 

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report 

 

 

Saturday, October 28, 2023

Global

  • The G7 Trade Ministers meet in Osaka-Sakai, Japan through October 29.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report

 

 

Sunday, October 29, 2023

Global

  • Nothing Significant to Report

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Colombia holds local elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report

  •  

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Vietnam Balance of Trade (October), Industrial Production (October), Inflation (October), Retail Sales (October), Tourist Arrivals

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will visit Nigeria and Ghana from through Tuesday.  The goal of his visits is to discuss “regional security, economic development, and cooperation on economic and global issues.”

  • UK Daylight Savings Time ends.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Oman holds elections for their parliament.

  • Today is Turkey Republic Day, commemorating the founding of the Republic 100 years ago.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Israel Manufacturing Production (August)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report

 

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Francis Kelly
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