Recommended Weekend Reads
October 20 - 22, 2023
Here are our recommended reads from reports and articles we read in the last week. We hope you find these useful and that you have a relaxing weekend. And let us know if you or someone you know wants to be added to our distribution list.
Latin America
“The Only Threat of Violence in Venezuela’s Opposition Primaries Comes from the Regime” Center for Strategic and International Studies
The Biden Administration has brokered a deal with the Venezuelan regime easing sanctions on oil production in return for allowing free elections. But the risk of this deal falling apart is high. On August 18, Venezuela’s President Nicolás Maduro appeared on television to denounce the October 22 primaries planned by Venezuela’s opposition parties, which are uniting behind a single candidate ahead of the country’s 2024 presidential elections. Through “lies, hate, and violence,” Maduro claimed the opposition would use the primaries to “sow fascism” in Venezuela (author’s translation). The accusations, parroted by other high-ranking regime authorities, represent a disturbing narrative in the midst of an already fraught electoral season, which has seen attacks and intimidation against political candidates and the arbitrary disqualification of leading figures, most notably opposition frontrunner María Corina Machado. The Maduro regime’s narrative of violence portends a possible intervention in the opposition’s independently organized primary process on public security grounds.
“A (Relatively) Bullish Case for Latin America” Americas Quarterly
Far from global crises but near vital markets, the region has what the world needs right now. The bottom line is basically this: The external context for Latin America/Caribbean (LAC) right now is so favorable on a variety of fronts that it is overcoming other headwinds. If the policy mix was better, the region might be growing by 4% or 5% a year. But 2% or perhaps a little better still feels like progress. That growth, plus the investments being made, might be enough to create a little more well-being among the region’s citizens—which could, in turn, help the politics get better.
The United States
On October 12, the Strategic Posture Commission released its long-awaited report on U.S. nuclear policy and strategic stability. The 12-member Commission was hand-picked by Congress in 2022 to conduct a threat assessment, consider alterations to U.S. force posture, and provide recommendations. In contrast to the Biden administration’s Nuclear Posture Review, the Congressionally-mandated Strategic Posture Commission report is a full-throated embrace of a U.S. nuclear build-up. It includes recommendations for the United States to prepare to increase its number of deployed warheads, as well as increase its production of bombers, air-launched cruise missiles, ballistic missile submarines, non-strategic nuclear forces, and warhead production capacity. It also calls for the United States to deploy multiple warheads on land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) and consider adding road-mobile ICBMs to its arsenal. The only thing that appears to have prevented the Commission from recommending an immediate increase in the U.S. nuclear weapons stockpile is that the weapons production complex currently does not have the capacity to do so.
Africa
“How a Fertilizer Shortage Is Spreading Desperate Hunger” The New York Times
The war in Ukraine reduced the region’s grain exports and sent the price of staples like wheat soaring from Egypt to Indonesia. The world’s food supply is also menaced by the ravages of climate change — heat waves, drought, floods. Now, scarce and expensive fertilizer - much of normally imported from Ukraine – is combining with these other forces to threaten livelihoods.
Chart of the Week
Spanish Olive Oil: It’s Going to Cost You More Because of Yet Another Poor Harvest Yield
Many of us are great fans of Spanish olive oil. Unfortunately, Spain – the top producer of olive oil – is having yet another poor harvest year. Higher than normal temperatures and a prolonged drought have led to the trees either dropping their fruit too soon or producing significantly smaller olives. According to Bloomberg, it is the 3rd lowest than the four-year average. Making the situation worse is a growing crime wave where thieves are targeting stored oil reserves, the actual freshly picked olives, and even trees. So, if you find the prices have spiked at the grocery store or at your favorite restaurant, now you know why.
