The Global Week Ahead

June 30 - July 7, 2024

Elections are again dominant on the global stage this coming week.  As of this writing, the French far-right National Rally Party, led by Marine Le Pen, has scored a massive victory in parliamentary elections.  A run-off election will be held next Sunday to determine how significant the margin of victory will be.  But it appears it will be just short of an outright majority as French President Emmanuel Macron’s alliance of centrist parties are looking to potentially form an alliance with the far-left bloc to blunt the National Rally’s power in parliament.

Also this week,  the UK holds parliamentary elections this Thursday .  Looking at polls, the Labor Party is positioned to score a massive win – perhaps by the biggest margins in UK history.  The Economist is estimating Labor could win as many as 434 seats – far more than the 334 seats needed to hold a majority.  The Conservatives could shrink to as little as 106 seats from their current 365 seats.

But the most watched election-related event this week is not an actual vote but rather what President Biden will do after his disastrous debate performance.  We do not believe President Biden will withdraw despite growing pressure, as most senior Democratic leaders (former Presidents Obama and Clinton, former Speaker Nancy Pelosi, etc.) have rallied to support the President staying in the race.  However, the debate over the President’s mental and physical abilities and whether he should stand down will not go away any time soon and will likely intensify as Republicans get ready for the Republican Convention in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, on July 15.

Elsewhere in the world, the EU is set to make a significant decision this week.  The EU will formally select its next Commission President, with current President Ursula von der Leyden likely to retain her position.  This decision comes at a crucial time as Hungary, a long-standing antagonist of EU policies (especially its support for Ukraine), assumes the six-month chair of the European Union.  EU leaders are actively strategizing to counter Hungary's potential efforts to implement policies that could undermine current EU's consensus policies.

We also note another change taking place this week  in another important chair: At the United Nations today, Russia takes the chair of the UN Security Council for the month of July.

On the global economic radar screen, the big event this week will be the European Central Banks Conference, which will be held in Sintra, Portugal.  Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell and several other major central bank chiefs will be there, too, speaking on panels and likely giving important insights on global economic policy.

In the US, markets will look to the Fed releasing the June FOMC meeting minutes and the JOLTs and ADP data on Tuesday and Wednesday, leading into the overall jobs numbers report on Friday.  Looking at Europe, Germany, Italy, France, and Spain release CPI reports.  In Asia, China releases June PMIs and the Caixin indices, which will give a clearer indication of whether the country's growth is returning to normal.  And Indonesia, the Philippines, South Korea, and Taiwan are due to release their June inflation reports.

Below is everything else we are watching happening around the world in the coming week:

Sunday, June 29, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·      Uruguay will hold primary elections ahead of its Oct. 27 general election

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China NBS Manufacturing PMI (June)/ NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI (June)/ NBS General PMI (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The First Round of parliamentary voting begins in France.

·       Belgium’s six-month presidency of the Council of the European Union ends.  Hungary takes the chair tomorrow, July 1.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Qatar will host the third U.N.-led meeting of special envoys to Afghanistan in Doha through July 1, and the Afghan Taliban will attend.

·       Egypt will host the Egypt-EU Investment Conference in Cairo.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Unemployment Rate Q1/ M3 Money Supply YoY MAY/ Private Bank Lending YoY MAY

·       Israel Composite Economic Index MoM MAY

Monday, July 1, 2024

Global

·       Russia assumes the presidency of the UN Security Council for the month of July.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Panama will inaugurate Jose Raul Mulino as president.

·       In Mexico, judicial branch workers are expected to go on strike to show their opposition to President-elect Claudia Sheinbaum’s legal reform plan that would make all judges elected positions.

·       The US Congress is out this week for the Independence Day holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Mexico Business Confidence JUN

·       Chile IMACEC Economic Activity YoY MAY

·       Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI JUN/ Balance of Trade JUN/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       USA S&P Global Manufacturing PMI JUN/ ISM Manufacturing PMI JUN/ ISM Manufacturing Employment JUN/ Construction Spending MAY

·       Colombia Business Confidence MAY

·       El Salvador Current Account Q1/ GDP Growth Rate YoY Q1

·       Peru Inflation Rate YoY JUN

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Hong Kong marks 27 years since it was returned to Chinese rule.  Meanwhile, on the mainland, Monday is the first anniversary of an updated counterespionage law that expanded the definition of spying and gave authorities sweeping new powers.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI Final JUN/ ANZ-Indeed Job Ads MoM JUN/ CoreLogic Dwelling Prices MoM JUN

·       South Korea Exports/ Imports/ Balance of Trade JUN

·       Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI JUN/ Inflation Rate YoY JUN/ Tourist Arrivals YoY MAY

·       Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI Final JUN/ Consumer Confidence JUN

·       Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI JUN

·       Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI JUN/ Business Confidence Q2/ Consumer Confidence Q2

·       Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI JUN

·       Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI JUN

·       China Caixin Manufacturing PMI JUN

·       Singapore Bank Lending MAY

·       India HSBC Manufacturing PMI Final JUN

·       Kazakhstan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI JUN/ Inflation Rate YoY JUN

·       Thailand Retail Sales YoY APR

·       Pakistan Inflation Rate YoY JUN/ Wholesale Prices YoY JUN/ Balance of Trade JUN

·       Sri Lanka Current Account Q1

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Hungary assumes the rotating presidency of the Council of the EU.

·       The First payment to Ukraine of Russa’s windfall profits made from frozen Russian assets in the European Union are expected to be made.

·       Armenia and Azerbaijan will submit work regulations to their governments for approval to resume operation of the bilateral border demarcation commission.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB President Christine Lagarde gives an introductory speech at the opening reception of the ECB Forum on Central Banking 2024 "Monetary policy in an era of transformation" in Sintra, Portugal.

·       Ireland Consumer Confidence JUN/ AIB Manufacturing PMI JUN/ Harmonized Inflation Rate YoY Prel JUN

·       Romania BCR Manufacturing PMI JUN

·       Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI JUN/ Consumer Confidence Q2

·       Great Britain Nationwide Housing Prices YoY JUN/ BoE Consumer Credit MAY/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final JUN/ M4 Money Supply MoM MAY/ Mortgage Approvals & Lending MAY

·       Hungary Balance of Trade Final APR/ HALPIM Manufacturing PMI JUN

·       Switzerland Retail Sales YoY MAY

·       Euro Area ECB Non-Monetary Policy Meeting/ HCOB Manufacturing PMI JUN/ ECB Forum on Central Banking

·       Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI JUN

·       Turkey Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI JUN

·       Spain HCOB Manufacturing PMI JUN

·       Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI JUN

·       France HCOB Manufacturing PMI JUN

·       Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI JUN/ Baden Wuerttemberg CPI YoY JUN/ Bavaria CPI YoY JUN/ Brandenburg CPI YoY JUN/ Hesse CPI YoY JUN/ North Rhine Westphalia CPI YoY JUN/ Saxony CPI YoY JUN/ Inflation Rate YoY Prel JUN

·       Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI JUN/ Unemployment Rate MAY

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The U.N. ban on Iranian production of IR-6 and IR-8 centrifuges will expire.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Kuwait M2 Money Supply YoY MAY

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI JUN

Tuesday, July 2, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell will participate in a policy panel discussion at the European Central Bank (ECB) Forum on Central Banking 2024, Sintra, Portugal.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       In Thailand, election authorities will announce the names of 200 new senators who passed a final round of scrutiny, after an obscure process in which 20 professional groups nominated and voted for their peers without input from the general public. While the new Senate will not have a say in future votes for prime minister it will maintain oversight of the executive

branch and a role in appointing members of independent organizations such as the election and anti-corruption commissions. Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand NZIER Business Confidence Q2/ NZIER Capacity Utilization Q2

·       South Korea Inflation Rate YoY JUN

·       Philippines PPI YoY MAY

·       Australia RBA Meeting Minutes

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       European Commission President Ursula von der Leyden is expected to be formally chosen for another term.

·       In the Italian city of Siena, the Il Palio bareback horse race - where riders race each other through the center of the city – takes place.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos chairs Session 1 "The rise and fall of inflation in the euro area – past, present and future" at the ECB Forum on Central Banking 2024 "Monetary policy in an era of transformation" in Sintra, Portugal.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson chairs Session 2 "The economics of biodiversity at ECB Forum on Central Banking" at the ECB Forum on Central Banking 2024 "Monetary policy in an era of transformation" in Sintra, Portugal.

·       European Central bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel chairs Panel 1 "Geopolitical shocks and inflation" at the ECB Forum on Central Banking 2024 "Monetary policy in an era of transformation" in Sintra, Portugal.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Wednesday, July 3, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Grenada hosts a the 47th Regular Meetings of the Conference of CARICOM (Leaders from Caribbean Community). 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams to participate on “Panel 2: Drivers of Equilibrium Interest Rates" before hybrid European Central Bank Forum on Central Banking 2024.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Shanghai Cooperation Organization meets in Kazakhstan.  The Organization is a China-led grouping considered part of Beijing's effort to promote an alternative world order. But there is no shortage of friction between the nine full members, which include India and Pakistan, Iran, Russia, and several Central Asian states.  However, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is not expected to attend.

·       Vietnamese Prime Minister Pham Chinh will travel to Seoul, South Korea to meet with Prime Minister Han Duck-soo.  Chinh will also meet with business leaders to encourage further investment in Vietnam.

·       Indonesia's Ministry of National Development Planning hosts the Green Economy Expo in Jakarta from Wednesday to Friday. The CEO of energy giant Pertamina and the head of fertilizer maker Pupuk Indonesia are among those expected to attend.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos chairs of Session 3 "Monetary Policy Cycles" at the ECB Forum on Central Banking 2024 "Monetary policy in an era of transformation" in Sintra, Portugal.

· European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone chairs Session 4, "Euro area productivity in the short and long-run," at the ECB Forum on Central Banking 2024 "Monetary policy in an era of transformation" in Sintra, Portugal.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane chairs Panel 2 "Drivers of equilibrium interest rates" at the ECB Forum on Central Banking 2024 "Monetary policy in an era of transformation" in Sintra, Portugal.

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives closing remarks at ECB Forum on Central Banking 2024 "Monetary policy in an era of transformation" in Sintra, Portugal.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The BlueInvest Africa event, organized by the European Commission, begins in Diani, Kenya, to discuss opportunities in the “blue economy” – maritime and coastal sectors and interior waterways.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Thursday, July 4, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Independence Day in the United States.  Financial markets banks, and the government are closed so we can celebrate our freedom.

·       Ecuador's United Workers Front union will march in opposition to the end of fuel subsidies.

·       The political campaign period for the July 28 presidential election in Venezuela will begin.

·        Argentine President Javier Milei will meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing, China (to be confirmed)

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The World Artificial Intelligence Conference begins in Shanghai, China.  The state-backed four-day event will showcase the latest technology under the theme "Governing AI for Good and for All."

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The United Kingdom holds parliamentary elections. The Labour Party is widely expected to sweep the elections.

·       The European Union's provisional tariffs on China's electric vehicles are due to take effect, barring an 11th-hour deal between the two sides. Europe in mid-June said it would slap additional duties of up to 38% on imported cars deemed to have been unfairly subsidized by the Chinese state. But the move has stirred concerns over potential retaliation, with major auto exporter Germany pushing for a compromise.

·       Today is the deadline for the European Commission to decide on a proposed acquisition by Lufthansa of a minority stake in Italy’s state-owned ITA Airways.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane gives the Master in Economics and Finance (MEF) 2024 Lecture at the University of Naples Federico II in Naples, Italy.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Elizabeth McCaul participates in the 28th Annual Economist Government Roundtable in Athens, Greece.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone gives a keynote speech at the 15th edition of the National Statistics Conference in Rome, Italy.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Friday, July 5, 2024 

Global

·       The 100th Anniversary of the Paris Olympic Games opening ceremony is today where the modern games are being held. This year’s Olympics begin on July 26 and run through August 11.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams to give keynote before the 4th Suresh Tendulkar Memorial Lecture event organized by the Reserve Bank of India.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       NATO Secretary General, Jens Stoltenberg, will give a press conference at the NATO Headquarters in Brussels, to preview the NATO Summit in Washington DC.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde participates in an 0n-stage conversation at the 24th edition of Les Rencontres Economiques d'Aix-en-Provence 2024 "Relier les mondes" in Aix-en-Provence, France.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson gives introductory remarks followed by Q&A on a panel entitled "Embedding data culture in supervision" at Data Innovation for Future of Regulation (DIFoR) Conference organized by the Financial Conduct Authority in London, UK.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Iran holds the second round of presidential elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Saturday, July 6, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Tokyo votes to elect its next governor, bringing an end to a two-week race between incumbent Yuriko Koike, backed by Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party, and her main challenger, Renho Saito, endorsed by the opposition. Over 11.5 million Tokyoites are registered to vote, and a record 56 candidates are on the ballot. The winner will hold the job for four years and oversee Japan's largest municipal budget.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       In London, the National March for Palestine organized by the Stop the War coalition takes place.  Organizers expect at least 100,000 people to attend.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, July 7, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       France holds the second round of parliamentary elections.

·       In Pamplona, Spain the annual Running of the Bulls takes place.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

Nothing significant to report