The Global Week Ahead

Apr 1

March 31 - April 7, 2024

Happy belated-Easter! We hope everyone had a joyful and relaxing Easter weekend. Looking at the geopolitical outlook for the coming week, it should be relatively quiet.

We will watch as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer, National Security Adviser Tzachi Hanegbi, and a Palestinian territory coordination office representative meet virtually with White House officials and discuss Gaza early next week. The meeting was scheduled for last week, but Netanyahu canceled it after the U.S. allowed the U.N. Security Council to pass a resolution calling for a ceasefire in Gaza. The purpose of the meeting is to discuss the situation in Rafah and if there is any way to push forward a deal for Israeli hostages in return for a ceasefire.

Also this week, NATO celebrates its 75th anniversary. There will be several celebratory events in Brussels this week, as well as important meetings of NATO foreign ministers to discuss further aid and assistance to Ukraine and the situation in Ukraine and the Red Sea.

Beijing will be a busy place this week as a number of foreign ministers and other dignitaries travel to China for meetings with President Xi Jinping and other senior Chinese officials. The list includes Indonesian Defense Minister and President-elect Prabowo Subianto (who is trying to balance a relationship with the U.S. and China), French Foreign Minister Stephane Sejourne (who is likely laying the groundwork for a visit by President X to France in May), and, most controversially, former Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou. The former President, facing considerable criticism at home for the trip, is taking a delegation of young people for a ten-day visit that may include a meeting with President Xi.

Looking at the global economic radar screen this week, it is a relatively light reporting week. Markets will be looking at the U.S. jobs report while listening to a large number of Federal Reserve Board Governors and regional Fed Presidents speak—including Fed Chair Jay Powell speaking at Stanford University later this week.

In Europe, Germany reports CPIs (as does the Eurozone), while the European Central Bank releases minutes of their March meeting. In Asia, Japan releases the Q1 Tankan Survey, while China releases official PMIs for March and the Caixin indicators.

Below is what else we are watching around the world this week:

Sunday, March 31, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· China NBS Manufacturing & Non-Manufacturing PMI (March)/ NBS General PMI (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Bulgaria and Romania partially join the Schengen area.

Economic Reports/Events –

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Turkey holds municipal elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, April 1, 2024

Global

· Malta assumes the Chair of the UN Security Council for the month of April.

· Today is April Fool’s Day.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· In Costa Rica, protests are expected by Specialists from the Costa Rican Social Security Fund will protests demanding improvements in their workplace conditions, better infrastructure and competitive salaries.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook gives Acceptance Remarks At the Lifetime Achievement Awards Ceremony, Cook Center at Duke University, Washington, D.C.

· Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (February)

· Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (March)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

· Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (March)/ BoC Business Outlook Survey

· USA S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (March)/ ISM Manufacturing PMI & Employment (March)/ Fed Cook Speech

· Colombia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (March)/ Monetary Policy Minutes

· Mexico S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (March)

· Uruguay Current Account Q4

· Peru Inflation Rate (March)

· Argentina Tax Revenue (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Former Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou will lead a delegation of Taiwanese young professionals to visit China through April 11. The trip is seen as highly controversial inside Taiwan and coming under considerable criticism.

· Indonesian Defense Minister and President-elect Prabowo Subianto will visit Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing, China, through April 2. The two sides will discuss "a joint development model," according to China's Foreign Ministry. Indonesia has maintained friendly relations with China throughout the decadelong tenure of outgoing President Joko "Jokowi" Widodo, and Subianto has vowed policy continuity.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Japan Tankan Large All Industry Capex Q1/ Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI Final (March)

· South Korea Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (March)

· Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (March)/ Inflation Rate (March)

· Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (March)

· Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (March)/ Business Confidence Q1/ Budget Balance (February)

· Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (March)

· Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (March)

· Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (March)

· China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (March)/ Current Account Final Q4

· Kazakhstan Tengri Partners Manufacturing PMI (March)/ Inflation Rate (March)

· Pakistan Inflation Rate (March)/ Wholesale Prices (March)/ Balance of Trade (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· French Foreign Minister Stephane Sejourne will visit China. The meeting is seen as a possible prelude to Chinese President Xi Jinping visiting France sometime in May.

· U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken will meet with French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris, France.

· Russia begins its annual spring military conscription. President Putin has signed an order increasing the number of men who can be drafted by 150,000.

· Today is a public holiday for most of Europe. Markets are closed as are most governments.

· Today is Cyprus National Day, celebrating when their revolt against the British began in 1955.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (March)

· Turkey Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (March)

· Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (March)/ Unemployment Rate (February)

· Spain New Car Sales (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Deadline for Israel's government to stop funding yeshiva schools that do not comply with conscription orders for ultra-Orthodox men, according to a Supreme Court order.

· New Zealand's Foreign Minister Winston Peters will meet with Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry and Arab League Secretary-General Ahmed Aboul Gheit in Cairo, Egypt.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Manufacturing Production (January)

· Jordan Industrial Production (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· A South African court will rule on allegations that National Assembly speaker Nosiviwe Mapisa-Nqakula received millions of rands in cash as bribes when she was defense minister.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Total New Vehicle Sales (March)

· Egypt M2 Money Supply (February)

Tuesday, April 2, 2024

Global

· The United Nations Human Rights Council discusses the situation in Haiti.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Today is the Day of the Veterans in Argentina, marking the loss of military lives in the Battle of the Falklands in 1982.

· Also in Argentina, Unemployed Argentinians will block access to tourist sites to oppose the elimination of social programs under the government of President Javier Milei.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman gives an address entitled “Bank Mergers and Acquisitions, and De Novo Bank Formation: Implications for the Future of the Banking System” at A Workshop on the Future of Banking hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City (Virtual).

· San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly to participate in hybrid fireside chat in partnership with the Henderson Chamber of Commerce, Latin Chamber of Commerce Nevada, and Vegas Chamber of Commerce.

· Brazil Bank Lending (February)/ PPI (February)

· Mexico Business Confidence (March)

· USA Redbook (March/30)/ JOLTs Job Openings (February)/ Factory Orders (February)/ Fed Bowman Speech/ Fed Williams Speech/ Fed Mester Speech/ Fed Daly Speech/ LMI Logistics Managers Index (March)/ Total Vehicle Sales (March)

· Chile Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Pakistan holds senatorial elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· ASEAN finance ministers and central bankers will meet in Laos.

· Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI Final (March)/ RBA Kent Speech/ RBA Meeting Minutes/ ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (March)/ TD-MI Inflation Gauge (March)/ Commodity Prices (March)

· New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index (April/02)

· South Korea Inflation Rate (March)/ CPI (March)

· Philippines PPI (February)

· Japan 10-Year JGB Auction

· India HSBC Manufacturing PMI Final (March)

· Singapore SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (March)/ MAS 4 & 12-Week Bill Auction

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda will meet European Council President Charles Michel, Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte, Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala, Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson and Bulgarian Prime Minister Nikolay Denkov in Vilnius, Lithuania. They are expected to discuss the situation in Ukraine and security issues in the region.

· Ukraine and the European Commission will co-host the international conference "Restoring Justice for Ukraine" at the World Forum in The Hague, the Netherlands.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI (March)

· Romania PPI (February)

· Great Britain Nationwide Housing Prices (March)/ BoE Consumer Credit (February)/ Mortgage Approvals & Lending (February)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (March)/ M4 Money Supply (February)/ Net Lending to Individuals (February)

· Hungary Balance of Trade Final (January)/ PPI (February)/ HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (March)

· Switzerland Retail Sales (February)

· Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (March)

· Spain HCOB Manufacturing PMI (March)

· Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI (March)/ Harmonized Inflation Rate Prel (March)

· France HCOB Manufacturing PMI Final (March)/ 3 6, & 12-Month BTF Auction

· Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI Final (March)/ Baden Wuerttemberg CPI (March)/ Bavaria CPI (March)/ Brandenburg CPI (March)/ Hesse CPI (March)/ North Rhine Westphalia CPI (March)/ Saxony CPI (March)/ Inflation Rate Prel (March)

· Euro Area HCOB Manufacturing PMI Final (March)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (February)

· Turkey Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade Prel (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Qatar GDP Growth Rate Q3 & Q4

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Senegal’s President-elect Bassirou Diomaye Faye is set to become the fifth President of Senegal on Tuesday when he will be sworn in, after winning the March 24 presidential election.

· In Gabon, a post-coup national dialogue will begin.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (March)

Wednesday, April 3, 2024

Global

· OPEC+ holds ministerial meetings in Vienna, Austria.

· The nomination period for the selection of the next managing director of the International Monetary Fund closes. The incumbent managing director, Kristalina Georgieva, has indicated she wants another five-year term and may have enough support to secure the selection.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome H. Powell gives an address entitled “Economic Outlook” at the Stanford Business, Government, and Society Forum, Stanford, California.

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman gives an address entitled “Bank Liquidity, Regulation, and the Fed’s Role as Lender of Last Resort” at the Committee on Capital Markets Regulation Roundtable on Lender of Last Resort, Washington, D.C.

· Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee to give opening remarks before virtual Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago event entitled "Preventing Elder Financial Exploitation: Research, Policies, and Strategies.”

· Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr participates in a discussion on the Community Reinvestment Act at the Just Economy Conference 2024 in Washington, D.C.

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana D. Kugler gives a speech entitled “The Outlook for the U.S. Economy and Monetary Policy” at the “Conversation with a Governor of the Federal Reserve Board” in St. Louis, Missouri.

· Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (March)/ Industrial Production (February)/ S&P Global Services & Composite PMI (March)

· USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (March)/ ADP Employment Change (March)/ S&P Global Services Composite PMI Final (March)/ Fed Bowman Speech/ ISM Services PMI (March)/ EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (March/29)/ Fed Goolsbee Speech/ Fed Chair Powell Speech/ Fed Barr Speech/ Fed Kugler Speech

· Mexico Gross Fixed Investment (January)

· Canada S&P Global Services & Composite PMI (March)

· Paraguay Inflation Rate (March)

· Uruguay Inflation Rate (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· China will celebrate its Qingming (Tomb Sweeping) festival through April 6.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

· Australia Ai Group Industry Index (March)

· Japan Jibun Bank Services & Composite PMI Final (March)

· Singapore S&P Global PMI (March)/ URA Property Index Prel Q1

· China Caixin Services & Composite PMI (March)

· Kazhkstan Tengri Partners Services PMI (March)

· Thailand Business Confidence (March)

· Taiwan Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

· Hong Kong Retail Sales (February)

· India M3 Money Supply (March/22)

· Sri Lanka Current Account Q4

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· A NATO foreign ministers meeting will take place in Brussels, Belgium, through April 4, coinciding with the alliance's 75th anniversary.

· The sixth U.S.-EU Trade and Technology Council summit will take place in Leuven, Belgium, through April 5.

· Belarus will hold legislative elections for its upper house.

· There will be an informal meeting of EU Transport Ministers through April 4 in Brussels.

· Italian port workers will hold nationwide strikes through April 5.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Romania Unemployment Rate (February)

· Russia S&P Global Services & Composite PMI (March)/ Unemployment Rate (February)/ Business Confidence (March)/ Corporate Profits (January)/ Real Wage Growth (January)/ Retail Sales (February)

· France Budget Balance (February)

· Turkey Inflation Rate (March)/ CPI (March)/ PPI (March)/ Auto Sales (March)

· Italy Unemployment Rate (February)

· Euro Area Inflation Rate Flash (March)/ Unemployment Rate (February)/ CPI Flash (March)/ 3 & 6-Month Bill Auction

· Italy New Car Registrations (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (March)

· United Arab Emirates S&P Global PMI (March)

· Qatar Financial Centre PMI (March)

· Kuwait National Assembly Election

· Jordan GDP Growth Rate Q4

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Egypt S&P Global PMI (March)

· Mozambique Standard Bank PMI (March)

· South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI (March)

· Nigeria Unemployment Rate Q4

· Kenya Interest Rate Decision

Thursday, April 4, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· President Joe Biden will host Greek Prime Minister Mitsotakis in Washington, D.C. They are expected to discuss the situation in Ukraine, the situation in Gaza, and bilateral defense issues as well as energy efforts.

· Today is the deadline for former President Donald Trump to post a $175 million bond as part of his civil fraud case in New York.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana D. Kugler gives a speech entitled “Enriching Data and Analysis in Economics with Real Life Experiences.” at the Women in Economics Symposium in St. Louis, Missouri.

· St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem to give introductory remarks before the 2024 Women in Economics Symposium hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

· Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester to participate in conversation on the economic outlook before the virtual Global Interdependence Center Executive Briefing.

· Mexico Foreign Exchange Reserves (February)/ Consumer Confidence (March)/ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

· Brazil Current Account (February)/ Foreign Direct Investment (February)/ Car Production (March)/ New Car Registrations (March)/ Balance of Trade (March)

· USA Challenger Job Cuts (March)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)/ Initial Jobless Claims (March/30)/ 4 & 8-Week Bill Auction/ 15 & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (April/03)/ Fed Goolsbee Speech/ Fed Mester Speech/ Fed Musalem Speech/ Fed Kugler Speech

· Canada Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)

· Ecuador Inflation Rate (March)

· Colombia Exports (February)/ PPI (March)

· Uruguay Unemployment Rate (February)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Building Permits (February)

· Australia Judo Bank Services & Composite PMI Final (March)/ RBA Jones Speech/ Retail Sales Final (February)

· Japan Foreign Bond Investment (March/30)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (March/30)/ 30-Year JGB Auction

· India HSBC Services & Composite PMI Final (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· NATO celebrates its 75th anniversary.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Ireland AIB Services PMI (March)/ Unemployment Rate (March)

· Hungary Balance of Trade Prel (February)

· Switzerland Inflation Rate (March)/ CPI (March)

· Spain Unemployment Change (March)/ HCOB Services & Composite PMI (March)/ 10 & 15-Year Obligacion Auction

· Italy HCOB Services & Composite PMI (March)

· France HCOB Services & Composite PMI Final (March)/ 10, 20, & 30-Year OAT Auction

· Germany HCOB Services & Composite PMI Final (March)

· Euro Area HCOB Services & Composite PMI Final (March)/ PPI (February)/ ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts

· Great Britain New Car Sales (March)/ HCOB Services & Composite PMI Final (March)

· Slovenia Balance of Trade (February)

· Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (March/29)

· Poland Interest Rate Decision (April)

· Romania Interest Rate Decision

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Kuwait holds parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Lebanon BLOM Lebanon PMI (March)

· Israel Tourist Arrivals (March)/ Composite Economic Index (February)

· Kuwait M2 Money Supply (February)/ Private Bank Lending (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Senegal Independence Day, marking the day the country gained its independence in 1960 from France.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa S&P Global PMI (March)

· Kenya Stanbic Bank PMI (March)

· Ghana S&P Global PMI (March)

· Tanzania Interest Rate Decision

Friday, April 5, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau hosts Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa in Ottawa.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Susan Collins to give welcome remarks before the virtual Conference on the Financial Stability Implications of Stablecoins hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.

· Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin to speak before the Greater Baltimore Committee. His speech is entitled "Pulse Check: The Scorecard Summit 2024.”

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech entitled “Risks and Uncertainty in Monetary Policy: Current & Past Considerations” at the Shadow Open Market Committee Spring Meeting in New York.

· Brazil Gross Debt to GDP (February)/ Nominal Budget Balance (February)

· Mexico Auto Exports & Production (March)

· Canada Unemployment Rate (March)/ Ivey PMI s.a (March)

· USA Unemployment Rate (March)/ Fed Barkin Speech/ Fed Bowman Speech/ Consumer Credit Change (February)/ Used Car Prices (March)

· Costa Rica Inflation Rate (March)

· Colombia Inflation Rate (March)

· Panama Current Account Q3

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea Current Account (February)

· Japan Household Spending (February)/ 3-Month Bill Auction/ Coincident Index Prel (February)/ Leading Economic Index Prel (February)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

· Australia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)

· Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (March)

· Philippines Inflation Rate (March)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

· Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

· Thailand Core Inflation Rate (March)

· India RBI Interest Rate Decision/ Cash Reserve Ratio/ Bank Loan Growth (March/22)/ Deposit Growth (March/22)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (March/29)

· Singapore Retail Sales (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· European Commission President von der Leyen will host Secretary of State Blinken and Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan for development “trilateral cooperation” talks in Brussels.

· The UK train driver’s union, Aslef, will go on strike on the west coast.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Germany Factory Orders (February)/ Import Prices (February)/ HCOB Construction PMI (March)/ New Car Registrations (March)

· Romania Retail Sales (February)

· Great Britain Halifax House Price Index (March)/ S&P Global Construction PMI (March)

· Hungary Industrial Production Prel (February)/ Retail Sales (February)

· France Industrial Production (February)/ HCOB Construction PMI (March)/ New Car Registrations (March)

· Slovakia Retail Sales (February)

· Spain Industrial Production (February)

· Switzerland Consumer Confidence (March)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

· Euro Area HCOB Construction PMI (March)/ Retail Sales (February)

· Italy HCOB Construction PMI (March)

· Greece Balance of Trade (February)

· Russia Vehicle Sales (March)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)/ GDP Growth Rate Q4

The Global Week Ahead

March 31 - April 7, 2024

Sunday, March 31, 2024

Monday, April 1, 2024

Tuesday, April 2, 2024

Wednesday, April 3, 2024

Thursday, April 4, 2024

Friday, April 5, 2024

Saturday, April 6, 2024

Sunday, April 7, 2024

The Global Week Ahead

March 31 - April 7, 2024

Sunday, March 31, 2024

Monday, April 1, 2024

Tuesday, April 2, 2024

Wednesday, April 3, 2024

Thursday, April 4, 2024

Friday, April 5, 2024

Saturday, April 6, 2024

Sunday, April 7, 2024

A Superb Panel in Palm Beach

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead