The Global Week Ahead
March 12 - 19, 2023
This week, Washington will be buzzing about the Federal Reserve and Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) moves to seize Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank and the decision to make all depositors whole. Key members of Congress were briefed on Friday and Saturday. We understand regulators met around the clock this weekend to set up a new lending facility for any bank currently stressed with a one-year term compared with 90 days at the discount window. There remain a lot of questions at the time of this writing as to how many banks will likely take part in the program.
On the geopolitical front, President Biden will host a meeting of the AUKUS in San Diego, California. The AUKUS Pact is the joint defense group consisting of the US, UK, and Australia established to counter Chinese military advancements in the Indo-Pacific. The big news likely to come out of the meeting is President Biden is expected to announce the US will sell nuclear submarines to Australia.
Also, this week, the Black Sea Grain Initiative is set to expire on Saturday. Initially negotiated between Ukraine and Russia, it allows the free flow of grain and fertilizers out of the Black Sea and to markets globally – particularly to Africa and the Middle East, which are the primary buyers. If an extension is not granted, global markets will likely see a significant spike in food prices, and global food security issues will be considerably raised.
On the global economic agenda this week, the European Central Bank will meet and likely raise rates again. US CPI will be reported, while the Bank of Japan will release minutes from last week's meeting.
Here is what else we are watching around the world this coming week:
Sunday, March 12, 2023:
Global
· Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· US Daylights Savings begins in the United States, advancing the clock one hour. We hate this day.
· The Academy Awards are held in Los Angeles, California.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko will visit Iran for talks with President Ebrahim Raisi.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Israel GDP (Q4), Current Account (Q4)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Cameroon holds Senate elections.
· Mauritius celebrates Independence Day, gaining its independence from the UK in 1968.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Monday, March 13, 2023:
Global
· UN and Russian officials are scheduled to meet in Geneva, Switzerland, to discuss an extension of the Black Sea Grain Initiative, which is scheduled to expire on Saturday.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· US President Joe Biden hosts British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and Australian Prime Minister Tony Albanese in San Diego, California, to unveil new details of the 2021 AUKUS pact created 18 months ago in part to counter Chinese influence in the Indo-Pacific. A deal will likely be announced where the US will sell Australia nuclear submarines.
Economic Reports/Events –
· US Consumer Inflation Expectations (February)
· Mexico Industrial Production (January)
· Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout
· Ecuador Balance of Trade (January)
· Uruguay Industrial Production (January)
· Paraguay GDP (Q4), Balance of Trade (February)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· China’s National People’s Congress concludes with President Xi Jinping officially starting his third term. Also, China’s new Premier, Li Qiang, is expected to meet the press at the end of the Congress along with other top officials.
· Japan will ease COVID guidelines on mask-wearing and allow individuals to decide when to wars masks.
· The joint Freedom Shield military exercise between the United States and South Korea will commence in South Korea and last through March 23rd. It is the first US-South Korean in five years.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Japan BSI Large Manufacturing (Q1)
· India Inflation (February)
· South Korea Export Prices/Import Prices (February)
· Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (March0, NAB Business Confidence (February)
· Indonesia Motorbike Sales (February)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· The Eurogroup will meet to discuss macroeconomic and fiscal developments and fiscal policy guidance for 2023 and 2024. They will also discuss preparations for the Spring World Bank/IMF meetings in Washington, DC. ECB Board Member Fabio Panetta will participate.
· The EU Employment, Social Policy, Health, and Consumer Affairs Council will meet through March 14th. They will discuss the impact of the Ukraine War on labor markets, the regulation of fees to the European Medicines Agency (EMA), and the EU’s global health strategy.
· In the UK, Commonwealth Day is celebrated, celebrating the Commonwealth of Nations.
· Scotland’s Scottish National Party leadership ballot is held.
· In the UK, junior doctors will begin a three-day strike.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Turkey Current Account (January), Retail Sales (January)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Tuesday, March 14, 2023:
Global
· OPEC Monthly Meeting
· The United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA), is organizing the Arab Forum for Sustainable Development 2023 in Beirut, Lebanon, which will be held through March 16th.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken will visit Ethiopia and Niger.
Economic Reports/Events –
· US Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman will give a speech entitled “The Innovation Imperative: Modernizing the US Banking System” at the Independent Community Bankers Association’s Conference.
· US Inflation ((February), CPI (February), Redbook (March 11th), NFIB Business Optimism Index (February)
· Uruguay Unemployment (January)
· Argentina Inflation (February)
· Colombia Consumer Confidence (February)
· Costa Rica Central Bank Interest Rate Decision
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· China FDI (February)
· India Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (February), WPI Inflation (February), WPI Food Index (February), WPI Manufacturing (February)
· Hong Kong Industrial Production (Q4)
· Philippines Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (January)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· The EU Economic and Financial Affairs Council (ECOFIN) meets to discuss the implementation of the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF), the economic and financial impacts of the Ukraine War, and the EU budget. ECB Board Member Luis de Guindos will participate.
· In the UK, today is the start of the four-day Cheltenham Festival, one of the biggest meetings in the British National Hunt horseracing calendar.
Economic Reports/Events –
· UK Unemployment (January)
· Spain CPI (February), Inflation (February)
· Italy Industrial Production (January)
· Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (February)
· Ukraine GDP (Q4)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Turkey Auto Production (February)
· Qatar Inflation (February)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· South Africa Gold Production (January), Mining Production (January), Manufacturing Production (January)
Wednesday, March 15, 2023:
Global
· IEA Oil Market Report
· the UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a vote in the morning linked to the United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS). In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East and the 2140 Committee. The briefing will be followed by consultations on the Middle East (Yemen) and the 2140 Committee.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· US Secretary of State Antony Blinken meets with the African Union leadership in Addis Ababa.
· US Director of the Office of Management and Budget Shalanda Young will testify before the Senate Budget Committee on President Biden’s 2024 budget proposal.
Economic Reports/Events –
· US PPI (February), Retail Sales (February), New York Empire State Manufacturing Index (March), Business Inventories (January), NAHB Housing Market Index (March), Retail Inventories (January), MBA Mortgage Market Index (March 10th)
· Colombia Industrial Production (January), Retail Sales (January)
· Peru GDP (January), Unemployment (February)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida holds a tripartite meeting with representatives of business and labor unions to coincide with the announcement by large corporations of pay raises starting in April.
· Economic Reports/Events –
· China People’s Bank of China 1-Year MLF Announcement, Industrial Production (January & February), Retail Sales (January & February), Unemployment (February)
· Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
· South Korea Unemployment Rate (February)
· Philippines Cash Remittances (January)
· Indonesia Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (February)
· Sri Lanka GDP (Q4), Manufacturing PMI& Services PMI (February)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· In the UK, Chancellor Jeremy Hunt presents the budget to Parliament.
· Also, in the UK, a large number of strikes are scheduled. London Underground drivers are expected to go on strike. Also, UK teachers in England and Wales are expected to go on strike as well as BBC local radio journalists. Additionally, more than 100,000 civil servants in the Public and Commercial Services Union are going to stage a walk-out.
· Belarus celebrates Constitution Day.
· In the Netherlands, provincial elections are to be held.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Germany Wholesale Prices (February)
· France Inflation (February)
· UK Spring Budget 2023
· Poland Inflation (February), Industrial Production (January)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Saudi Arabia Inflation (February), Wholesale Prices (February)
· Turkey Budget Balance (February)
· Israel Inflation (February), M1 Money Supply (February)
· Jordan Inflation (February)
· Oman total Credit (January), M2 Money Supply (January)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nigeria Food Inflation (February)
· South Africa Retail Sales (January)
Thursday, March 16, 2023:
Global
· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a vote in the morning linked to the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA), which will be followed by consultations on the 1701 report. In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Maintenance of international peace and security: Security sector reform.
· the UN United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) is expected to publish its first Global Report on Cocaine.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· US Secretary of State Antony Blinken meets with Niger’s President Mohammed Bazoum and Foreign Minister Hassoumi Massaoudou in Niamey, Niger.
· US Secretary of Treasury Janet Yellen will testify before the Senate Finance Committee on President Biden’s 2024 budget proposal.
Economic Reports/Events –
· US Initial Jobless Claims (March 11th), Export Prices/Import Prices (February), Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (March), Philadelphia Fed Business Conditions (March), Philadelphia Fed CAPEX Index (March), Philadelphia Fed Employment (March), Philadelphia Fed New Orders (March), Import Prices/Export Prices (February), Building Permits (February), Housing Starts (February)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· South Korean Prime Minister Yoon Suk Yeol will visit Japan through March 17th. It is the first time a South Korean Prime Minister has visited Japan in twelve years and comes after a breakthrough plan to resolve a long-standing dispute over forced labor in World War II.
Economic Reports/Events –
· China House Price Index (February)
· Japan Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (February), Machinery Orders (January), Industrial Production (January)
· Hong Kong Unemployment (February)
· Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (March), Unemployment (February), Reserve Bank of Australia Bulletin
· Indonesia Loan Growth (February), Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Lending Facility Rate (March), Deposit Facility Rate (March)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· The EU Environmental Council meets to discuss the industrial emissions directive, a proposal to set up an EU certification framework for carbon removal, and packaging and packaging waste policy.
· Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will meet with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in Berlin, Germany.
· Russian President Vladimir Putin is scheduled to meet with the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs. The group is composed of the leading oligarchs, and the last time Putin met with them was the day he announced the invasion of Ukraine (February 24, 2022).
· Czech president Petr Pavel meets his Polish counterpart in a two-day state visit to the neighboring EU nation.
Economic Reports/Events –
· European Central Bank Interest Rate Decision & ECB Press Conference
· Eurozone Deposit Facility Rate, Marginal Lending Rate
· Italy Inflation (February), CPI (February)
· Poland Balance of Trade (January), Inflation (January & February), Current Account (January)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Turkey FX Reserves (March 10th)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· South Africa Building Permits (January)
Friday, March 17, 2023:
Global
· The OECD interim economic outlook report on the global economy will be released.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· US Secretary of Treasury Janet Yellen will testify before the House Ways & Means Committee on President Biden’s 2024 budget proposal.
· St. Patrick’s Day is celebrated in the US (and in Ireland, too, of course).
Economic Reports/Events –
· US Industrial Production (February), Manufacturing Production (January), Capacity Utilization (February), Michigan Consumer Sentiment (March), Michigan Current Conditions (March), CB Leading Index (February)
· Canada PPI (February), Raw Materials Prices (February)
· Brazil Unemployment (January), IBC-BR Economic Activity (January)
· Colombia Imports/Balance of Trade (January), ISE Economic Activity (January)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Japan Tertiary Industry Index (January)
· India FX Reserves (March 10th)
· Singapore Non-Oil Exports (February), Balance of Trade (February)
· Philippines Budget Balance (January)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· The UK Liberal Democrat Party holds its spring conference in York.
· Today is the 9th anniversary of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s signing of the decree “recognizing the autonomous Ukrainian region of Crimea.”
Economic Reports/Events –
· Eurozone Inflation (February), CPI (February), Labor Cost Index (Q4), Wage Growth (Q4)
· Italy Balance of Trade (January), Construction Output (January)
· Ukraine Balance of Trade (January)
· Russia Central Bank Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Africa:
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· South Africa Consumer Confidence (Q1)
Saturday, March 18, 2023:
Global
· The Black Sea Grain Initiative, a temporary, 120-day deal allowing grain and fertilizers from Ukraine and Russia to be shipped via the Black Sea, expires. If it is not renewed, it will pose an immediate global food security threat.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· German Chancellor Olaf Scholz travels to Japan with a delegation of German ministers for the so-called intergovernmental consultative framework. They will discuss bilateral cooperation on economic security and trade.
· In Portugal, tens of thousands of workers are expected to protest in Lisbon as part of a protest organized by the country’s largest workers’ union CGTP to demand higher wages.
· In the UK, barge workers who are members of the Unite union will go on strike for better pay.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Sunday, March 19, 2023:
Global
· Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida meets with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in New Delhi, India. They will discuss the G20 Summit, which India is chairing this year, as well as the Ukraine War.
· Kazakhstan holds parliamentary elections.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Montenegro holds presidential elections.
· In the UK, it is Mother’s Day.
· France commemorates victims of the Algerian War of 1954-1962.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
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