The Global Week Ahead
March 19 - 26, 2023
This week will be hectic across the geopolitical and geoeconomics spectrum. First, the markets have been on edge all weekend, awaiting a resolution for the faltering Credit Suisse, which, at the time of this note being written, looks like UBS is going to buy CS for $3 billion.
On the geopolitical front, on Monday, Chinese President Xi Jinping travels to Moscow for three days of meetings where he is expected to call for a truce between Russia and Ukraine. The Chinese foreign minister spoke to the Ukrainian foreign minister about this idea last week – let’s see if President Putin will accept it and where the China-Russia relationship is going (will China announce they are going to give military aid to Russia if Ukraine does not agree to a cease-fire?). While Xi is in Moscow, Japan’s Prime Kishida meets with Indian Prime Minister Modi – both members of the Quad (the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue) – to discuss the Ukraine War, China risk, and the upcoming G7 meeting India is chairing.
The UK Parliament is set to vote on the Northern Ireland agreement with the EU on Wednesday. And on Sunday, Brazilian President Lula begins a large trade mission to China amidst rumors he is considering joining China’s Belt-and-Road Initiative.
The European Council (heads of state) will meet this week twice – first in Sweden and then in Brussels, where the Ukraine War will be the top priority issue discussed. Meanwhile, President Biden makes his first official visit to Canada to discuss the Ukraine War with Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau and find ways to strengthen the USMCA trade deal. On Thursday, the CEO of TikTok will testify in front of a congressional committee as Congress continues to consider legislation banning the app from being used in the US – a position we believe the Biden Administration supports.
But the most significant action this week will be among central banks. The US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meets to consider raising or lowering rates (viewpoints are all over the place). Other central banks considering rate increases this week include the UK, Switzerland, Brazil, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Nigeria.
Here is what else we are watching around the world this coming week:
Sunday, March 19, 2023:
Global
· Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida meets with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in New Delhi, India. They will discuss the G20 Summit, which India is chairing this year, as well as the Ukraine War.
· Kazakhstan holds parliamentary elections.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Montenegro holds presidential elections.
· In the UK, it is Mother’s Day.
· France commemorates victims of the Algerian War of 1954-1962.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Monday, March 20, 2023:
Global
· Today is the 20th anniversary of the Iraq War.
· the UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the 1591 Committee. The Secretary-General is also scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultation, on the United Nations Integrated Transition Assistance Mission in Sudan (UNITAMS).
· Today is the Vernal equinox, the first day of spring as measured by a day’s length equaling that of the night and the Earth’s poles being equidistant from the Sun.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· US Special Presidential Envoy for Climate John Kerry travels to Mexico for meetings with Mexican President López-Obrador to discuss ways to mutually work on climate-related issues.
· Mexico celebrates Benito Juárez Birthday Memorial, a national holiday. Juárez, a former president, led the opposition to French intervention in Mexico.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Canada New Motor Vehicle Sales (January)
· Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout, IBC-BR Economic Activity (January)
· El Salvador Balance of Trade (February)
· Paraguay GDP (Q4)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Chinese President Xi Jinping begins a three-day state visit to Russia. Describing the relationship between the two countries as having “no limits,” Xi is expected to propose a truce in the Ukraine War which comes after the foreign ministers of Ukraine and China spoke earlier this week about a possible peace agreement.
· Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida visits India to meet with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Both nations are members of the Quad and are expected to focus on the Ukraine War, China, and the upcoming G7 meeting (which India is chairing).
· Germany’s Education Minister, Betinna Stark-Watzinger, begins a three-day visit to Taiwan. She will not meet with Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen out of concern of angering China.
Economic Reports/Events –
· The IMF is expected to agree to a $2.9 billion bailout of Sri Lanka.
· China Loan Prime Rate (1 year & 5 year)
· Japan Central Bank Summary of Opinions
· Taiwan Export Orders (February)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Russian President Vladimir Putin will give an address at the International Parliamentary Conference on “Russia and Africa in a Multipolar World” in Moscow. More than 40 African delegations will be in attendance.
· Armenia’s Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan will travel to Moscow for meetings with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. They will discuss the situation in the Lachin corridor and the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh.
· The EU will host the International Donors’ Conference entitled “Together for the People of Türkiye and Syria” in Brussels. The Conference will discuss how best to help in the wake of the devastating earthquakes.
· The EU Foreign Affairs Council will meet to discuss the Ukraine War, and exchange views on Tunisia and other issues.
· The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meets in Brussels to discuss the agricultural market situation, trade-related issues in the wake of the Ukraine War, a “New Deal for Pollinators,” and other issues.
· The French Parliament will likely hold a no-confidence vote over the Prime Minister’s use of special constitutional powers to force through controversial pension reforms without parliamentary consent.
· The UK hosts a conference on war crimes in Ukraine.
· UK university workers will walk out on strike over pay.
Economic Reports/Events –
· ECB President Christine Lagarde participates in a meeting with the European Council President Charles Michel, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, and European Investment Bank President Werner Hoyer in Brussels.
· ECB President Christine Lagarde gives a statement at a hearing held by the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) of the European Parliament in Brussels
· Eurozone Balance of Trade (January)
· Germany PPI (February), Bundesbank Monthly Report
· Poland Employment (February), Industrial Production (February) PPI (February), Corporate Sector Wages (February)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
Economic Reports/Events –
· Israel Unemployment (February), Inflation Expectations (March), M1 Money Supply (February)
· Turkey Central Government Debt (February)
· Oman Inflation (February)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· South Africa’s Economic Freedom Fighters (EEF) and other organizations are expected to join the South African Federal of Trade Unions (SAFTU) in demonstrations demanding a resolution to the ongoing national energy crisis as well as the resignation of President Cyril Ramaphosa.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Tuesday, March 21, 2023:
Global
· Today is World Downs Syndrome Day.
· Ramadan begins.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· The American Bankers Association Washington Summit begins. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will give remarks today, and Acting Comptroller of the Currency Michal Hus will discuss his agency’s priorities on Wednesday.
Economic Reports/Events –
· US Redbook (March 18th), Existing Home Sales (February)
· Canada Inflation (February), CPI (February)
· Argentina Balance of Trade (February)
· Costa Rica Balance of Trade (February)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· South Korea PPI (February)
· Australia Reserve Bank Meeting Minutes
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg presents the defense alliance’s annual report at its headquarters in Brussels.
· The EU General Affairs Council meets to discuss the state of EU-UK relations.
Economic Reports/Events –
· ECB President Christine Lagarde speaks via a pre-recorded high-level panel "CBDCs: Keeping momentum in uncertain times" at BIS Innovation Summit 2023 "Technological innovation in an age of uncertainty" organized by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) in Basel
· ECB Board Member Andrea Enria gives a presentation of the ECB Annual Report on supervisory activities 2022 to the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) of the European Parliament in Brussels
· Later in the day, ECB Board Member Andrea Enria participates in an exchange of views with José Manuel Campa, Chair of the European Banking Authority, on the implications of the failure of Silicon Valley Bank for financial stability in Europe, at the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament in Brussels
· Eurozone New Car Registration (February), ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (March), Construction Output (January)
· Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (March)
· UK Public Sector Borrowing (February)
· Switzerland SNB 2022 Annual Report, Balance of Trade (February)
· Russia Consumer Confidence (Q1)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Israel Manufacturing Production (January)
· Qatar Total Credit Growth (February) M2 Money Supply (February)
· Jordan Unemployment (Q4)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Namibia celebrates Independence Day, celebrating its full independence in 1990 from South Africa.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nigeria Central Bank Interest Rate Decision.
Wednesday, March 22, 2023:
Global
· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations.
· The UN 2023 Water Conference begins in New York and runs through March 24th.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee Interest Rate Decision & Press Conference, MBA Mortgage Market Index (March 17th)
· Canada New Housing Price Index (February), Bank of Canada Summary of Deliberations
· Brazil Central Bank Interest Rate Decision
· Mexico Private Spending (Q4), Aggregate Demand (Q4)
· Argentina Leading Indicator (February), Full-Year GDP Growth (2022), Unemployment Rate (Q4)
· Paraguay Central Bank Decision
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· India M3 Money Supply (March 10th)
· Australia Westpac Leading Index (February)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· The UK Parliament will hold a vote on the “Stormont Brake to the Windsor Framework between the United Kingdom and the European Union.” This will settle how the UK and EU deal with Northern Ireland vis a vi Brexit and EU trade relations.
Economic Reports/Events –
· ECB President Christine Lagarde gives an address at The ECB and its Watchers XXIII Conference organized by the Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability at Goethe Universität Frankfurt in Frankfurt
· ECB Board Member Fabio Panetta participates in a debate entitled "Global Shocks, Policy Spillovers, and Geo-Strategic Risk: How to Coordinate Policies" at The ECB and its Watchers XXIII Conference organized by the Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability at Goethe Universität Frankfurt in Frankfurt.
· ECB Board Member Philip Lane participates in a debate entitled "Monetary Policy: How to Get Inflation Back to Target?" at The ECB and its Watchers XXIII Conference organized by the Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability at Goethe Universität Frankfurt in Frankfurt.
· Eurozone Current Account (January),
· UK Inflation Rate (February), PPI (February), Retail Price Index (February), CBI Industrial Trends Orders (March)
· Italy Current Account (January)
· Poland M3 Money Supply (February)
· Switzerland Current Account (Q4)
· Russia PPI (February)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Israel Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (February), Composite Economic Index (February)
· Lebanon Inflation Rate (February)
· Kuwait Interest Rate Decision
· Qatar Deposit Interest Rate (March)
· Saudi Arabia Interest Rate Decision
· UAE Interest Rate Decision
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (January), Inflation (February)
Thursday, March 23, 2023:
Global
· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations on the Middle East (Syria). In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to have a briefing on the 1540 Committee.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· US President Joe Biden begins a two-day visit to Canada for meetings with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. Biden will address the Canadian Parliament, as well. Among the topics to be discussed are Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the situation in Haiti, and ways to improve the implementation of the US-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) trade agreement.
· The US House Commerce and Energy Committee will hold a hearing with the CEO of TikTok, Shou Zi Chew, testifying in response to Congress’ concerns over the app’s consumer privacy and data security practices. This comes as Congress and the Biden Administration consider banning TikTok in the US.
Economic Reports/Events –
· US Current Account (Q4), Initial Jobless Claims (March 18th), New Home Sales (February), Kansas Fed Composite Index (March), Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index (March), Building Permits (February), Chicago Fed National Activity Index (February),
· Mexico Inflation (March), Retail Sales (January)
· Argentina Retail Sales (January)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Japan Reuters Tankan Index (March)
· Hong Kong Interest Rate Decision, Inflation (February)
· Singapore CPI (February), Inflation (February)
· Taiwan Interest Rate Decision, Industrial Production (February), Retail Sales (February), M2 Money Supply (February)
· Philippines Interest Rate Decision
Europe
Political/Social Events –
Economic Reports/Events –
· Bank of England Interest Rate Decision & MPC Meeting Minutes
· ECB Board Member Philip Lane participates in a panel entitled "Global Shocks, Policy Spillovers, and Geo-Strategic Risk: How to Coordinate Policies" at The ECB and its Watchers XXIII Conference organized by the Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability at Goethe Universität Frankfurt in Frankfurt
· UK Gfk Consumer Confidence (March)
· Switzerland Central Bank Interest Rate Decision
· Poland Unemployment (February)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Turkey Consumer Confidence (March), Overnight Lending Rate (March), FX Reserves (March 17th)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· South Africa Consumer Confidence (Q1)
Friday, March 24, 2023:
Global
· Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· The U.N. Human Rights Council shares the outcome of its Universal Periodic Review of Ecuador and Brazil.
· The Ibero-America Summit is held through March 25th in the Dominican Republic. Heads of state from 22 Latin American countries, along with Spain, Portugal, and Andorra, will participate.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard gives a presentation and participates in a fireside chat on the U.S. economy and monetary policy before Greater St. Louis Inc.
· US Durable Goods Orders (February), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI/Global Services PMI/Composite PMI (March)
· Canada Retail Sales (January), Wholesale Sales (January), Manufacturing Sales (February)
· Brazil IPCA CPI (March)
· Mexico Economic Activity (January)
· Colombia Business Confidence (February)
· Uruguay GDP (Q4)
· Trinidad & Tobago Interest Rate Decision
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Japan Inflation (February), Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI/Services PMI/Composite PMI (March)
· India Deposit Growth (March 10th), FX Reserves (March 17th), Bank Loan Growth (March 10th)
· Taiwan Unemployment (February)
· Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI/Services PMI/Composite PMI (March)
· Indonesia M2 Money Supply (February)
· Singapore Industrial Production (February)
· Sri Lanka PPI (January)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· The European Council will meet in Brussels.
· The UK’s Conservative Party holds its Spring Forum in Birmingham to strategize for next year’s May local elections and a general election which will be held at some point in 2024.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Eurozone S&P Global Manufacturing PMI/Global Services PMI/Composite PMI (March)
· Germany S&P Global Manufacturing PMI/Global Services PMI/Composite PMI (March)
· France S&P Global Manufacturing PMI/Global Services PMI/Composite PMI (March)
· UK S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI/Global Services PMI/Composite PMI (March), Retail Sales (February)
· Spain GDP (Q4)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Turkey Tourist Arrivals (February)
· Kuwait Inflation (February)
Africa:
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Saturday, March 25, 2023:
Global
· Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· US Vice President Kamala Harris will begin a tour of Ghana, Tanzania, and Zambia through April 2nd.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· In Scotland, the Scottish Green Party – the junior coalition partner of the Scottish National party – holds its spring conference in Glasgow.
· Greece celebrates Independence Day, commemorating the Greek Revolution of 1821.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Sunday, March 26, 2023:
Global
· Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Brazil’s President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (Lula) begins a visit to China through March 30th. Lula will bring along more than 240 business representatives, including 90 from the agricultural sector. There are rumors Lula will entertain an invitation from Beijing to join the Belt-and-Road Initiative.
· Cuba holds parliamentary elections.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Turkmenistan holds parliamentary elections.
· Bangladesh celebrates Independence Day, commemorating the country’s independence from Pakistan in 1971.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Ukraine celebrates the Day of the National Guard.
· King Charles and his wife Camilla begin their first state visit as monarch and Queen Consort, traveling to France and Germany.
· European Daylight Savings Time begins, moving the clocks forward one hour.
Economic Reports/Events –
· ECB Board Member Isabel Schnabel participates in a discussion at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business Conference on the Global Economy and Financial Stability in Miami, Florida.
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Please let us know if you or a colleague would like to be added to our distribution list.