The Global Week Ahead
The most significant event on our radar this week is the highly anticipated meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping. This meeting, marking the 75th anniversary of Russia-China relations, holds immense importance as it is the first face-to-face interaction between the two leaders since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The discussions are expected to revolve around strategies to boost trade, particularly in light of the tightening sanctions on Russia and the potential for new bilateral energy deals. Putin is keen on expanding natural gas and oil exports to China.
The meeting comes as President Biden is expected to impose tough new tariffs on Chinese solar panels, electric vehicles, batteries, and other goods. China is expected to issue retaliatory tariffs at some point, but it is unclear at this point what sectors will be hit and when.
Also this week, we expect Israel to ramp up military pressure on Hamas in the Gaza city of Rafah despite President Biden’s decision to hold back on supplying particular military aid. All indications strongly suggest Israel will not stand down despite Biden’s efforts. Also in the region this week, 22 Arab leaders will meet in Bahrain for the annual Arab League Summit (and the first one in years in which Syrian President Bashir al-Assad has been invited back since the brutal Syrian Civil War), and the situation in Gaza will be the leading issue of discussion.
Elsewhere in the world, a new Prime Minister takes office in Singapore, signaling a new era of leadership in the city-state as it further ascends as a leading financial center in the greater Indo-Pacific region.
Looking at the global economic radar screen this coming week, markets will focus on the US CPI and retail sales reports on Wednesday to get a better sense of the inflation threat. Fed Chair Jay Powell will be in Amsterdam this week, speaking on a panel with other central bank chiefs, and we will be listening closely for his assessment of the economy.
In Asia, China will release inflation data this coming Wednesday, along with retail sales and industrial production. Having seen more tepid economic reports last week and the threat of stagflation hitting China, markets will be keenly attentive to the coming reports. Also in Asia this week, Japan will release Q1 GDP figures and its PPI report.
Finally, in Europe, it is a fairly light reporting week. Markets will examine UK labor figures and note economic data from Germany.
Here is what else we are watching closely around the world this coming week:
Sunday, May 12, 2024
Global
· UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres begins an official visit to Kuwait, Oman, and Bahrain for bilateral meetings and discussions.
Americas
Political/Social Events –s
· U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs Donald Lu will visit India, Sri Lanka, and Bangladesh through May 15.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· India begins Phase 4 of elections.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Thailand Consumer Confidence APR
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Lithuania holds Presidential elections.
· The Catalan regional elections (Spain) are being held. The vote could determine the future of Spain’s minority government.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Euro Area Eurogroup Meeting
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Israel celebrates Yom Ha’atzmaut, otherwise known as Israel’s Independence Day, through May 13.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Israel Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade APR
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Monday, May 13, 2024
Global
· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East (Yemen), followed by consultations.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Chile hosts Chile Fintech Forum 2024 in Santiago.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome H. Powell participates in a moderated discussion with De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB) President Klaas Knot at the Annual General Meeting, Foreign Bankers’ Association, Amsterdam.
· Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson gives a speech entitled “Communicating About Monetary Policy” at the Cleveland Fed Conference on Central Bank Communications, Cleveland, Ohio.
· Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook gives a speech entitled “Growth and Change at Community Development Financial Institutions” at the Expanding Access to Capital for CDFIs, hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in New York.
· Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester to participate in the discussion before the Central Bank Communications: Theory and Practice Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
· Canada Building Permits MoM MAR
· USA Consumer Inflation Expectations APR
· Brazil Business Confidence MAY/ BCB Focus Market Readout
· Colombia Consumer Confidence APR
· Paraguay Consumer Confidence APR
· Ecuador Balance of Trade MAR
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· ASEAN will hold its annual 21st ASEAN Regional Security Policy Conference in Laos through May 17.
· South Korea's Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yul will meet with his Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi, in Beijing, China, through March 14. It is the first time a South Korean foreign minister has visited Beijing in more than six years. They are expected to talk about bilateral trade as well as arrange a trilateral meeting with Japan and the situation on the Korean peninsula.
Economic Reports/Events –
· New Zealand Composite & Services NZ PCI APR/ Food Inflation YoY APR/ Business Inflation Expectations Q2
· Australia NAB Business Confidence APR
· Indonesia Consumer Confidence APR
· Malaysia Construction Output YoY Q1
· India Inflation Rate YoY APR
· China Vehicle Sales YoY APR/ Current Account Prel Q1
· Philippines Foreign Direct Investment FEB
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· The Eurogroup meets in Brussels. They will discuss outcomes of the recent G7 meeting in Italy, hear the biannual report of the Single Supervisory Mechanism and the Single Resolution Board, the current stage of the euro area banking system, Euro-area competitiveness, and the EU capital markets union efforts.
· The EU Education, Youth, Culture and Sports Council meets in Brussels through May 14. They will seek to approve conclusions on inclusive societies for young people, European and international policy agendas for children, youth and children’s rights, and the legacy of the European Year of Youth 2022. On the following day, it will turn its attention to culture and audiovisual issues, with ministers seeking to approve conclusions on the rise of influencers as a part of the EU’s media ecosystem, as well as on ways to empower the cultural and creative sectors through data-driven audience development. They will also hold a policy debate on future-proofing the cultural and creative sectors in the age of artificial intelligence.
· Georgia’s Parliament will begin the third reading of the controversial “Foreign Agents” bill. More protests are expected nationwide in opposition to the bill, which is seen as being pro-Russian and a threat to the nation’s democracy. They are focusing on a so-called “positive agenda” of mutual trade and energy matters, repairing cultural ties, and a long list of other items placed on the so-called positive agenda.
· Norway will host the heads of government from Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Sweden, and Germany, which will meet for a summit in Stockholm, Sweden, through May 14. They will discuss security policy and the situation in Ukraine.
· Russia’s Duma will consider candidates for deputy prime minister.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Ireland Construction PMI APR
· Switzerland Consumer Confidence APR
· Turkey Current Account MAR/ Retail Sales YoY MAR
· Serbia Inflation Rate YoY APR
· Romania Interest Rate Decision
· Germany Current Account MAR
· Euro Area European Commission Spring Forecasts
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Mauritania holds the first round of parliamentary elections.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Kazakhstan Unemployment Rate Q1/ PPI YoY APR
· Jordan Inflation Rate YoY APR
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Angola Inflation Rate YoY APR
· Ethiopia Inflation Rate YoY APR
Tuesday, May 14, 2024
Global
· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on ICC Libya.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Paraguay celebrates its Independence Day through May 15. It commemorates the day in 1811 when they won their freedom from Spain.
Economic Reports/Events –
· USA NFIB Business Optimism Index APR/ PPI APR/ Redbook YoY MAY/11, Total Household Debt Q1/ API Crude Oil Stock Change MAY/10
· Brazil BCB Copom Meeting Minutes
· Canada New Motor Vehicle Sales MAR
· Colombia Industrial Production YoY MAR/ Retail Sales YoY MAR
· Paraguay Balance of Trade APR
· Uruguay Industrial Production YoY MAR
· Argentina Inflation Rate YoY APR
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Thailand holds elections for their House of Representatives.
Economic Reports/Events –
· South Korea Imports/ Export Prices YoY APR
· New Zealand Electronic Retail Card Spending YoY APR/ Visitor Arrivals YoY MAR
· Japan PPI YoY APR/ Machine Tool Orders YoY APR
· Indonesia Retail Sales YoY MAR
· India WPI Food/ Fuel/ Inflation/ Manufacturing Index YoY APR
· China PBoC 1-Year MLF Announcement
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· The EU Economics and Financial Affairs Council meets in Brussels. The Council will seek a political agreement on a proposal to make the relief of excess withholding taxes faster and safer (FASTER). This initiative aims to help fight tax abuse and contribute to completing the EU capital markets union by encouraging cross-border investment. They will also seek a political agreement on the value-added tax (VAT) in the digital age package. The package consists of three proposals that set out to tackle VAT fraud, support businesses and promote digitalization. They will also discuss the Russian war on Ukraine and the broader economic impact on the EU. Finally, they will discuss the challenges arising from rapidly the rapidly aging EU population. The ministers will also exchange views on the state of play of the implementation of the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF).
· The seventh Copenhagen Democracy Summit will take place in Copenhagen, Denmark, through May 15. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and the presidents of numerous EU countries will speak. Also scheduled to speak are Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen and Vice President Lai Ching-te as well as US Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) and former US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.
· The 77th Cannes Film Festival opens, running until May 25. The honorary Palme d’Or award this year will go to Star Wars producer George Lucas.
Economic Reports/Events –
· ECB Governor Isabel Schnabel gives the keynote speech at the high-level scientific conference "Weichenstellungen für Wettbewerbsfähigkeit und Wachstum" organized by the Federal Chancellery in Berlin, Germany.
· Bank of England chief economist Huw Pill answers online questions on the economic outlook for the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales
· Germany Inflation Rate YoY Final APR/ ZEW Economic Sentiment Index MAY/ ZEW Current Conditions MAY
· Romania Industrial Production YoY MAR/ Inflation Rate YoY APR/ Current Account MAR
· Great Britain Unemployment Rate MAR/ Claimant Count Change APR/ HMRC Payrolls Change APR/ BoE Pill Speech/ Labour Productivity QoQ Final Q4
· Switzerland Producer & Import Prices YoY APR
· Slovakia Inflation Rate YoY APR
· Spain Inflation Rate YoY Final APR
· Euro Area ZEW Economic Sentiment Index MAY
· Greece Inflation Rate YoY APR
· Poland Balance of Trade MAR/ Current Account MAR
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· South Africa Unemployment Rate Q1/ Gold Production YoY MAR/ Mining Production YoY MAR/ Unemployed Persons Q1
Wednesday, May 15, 2024
Global
· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a debate on Bosnia and Herzegovina. In the afternoon, the Security Council will hold consultations on Peace and Security in Africa [G5 Sahel].
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech entitled “Innovation and the Evolving Financial Landscape” at the DC Blockchain Summit 2024 in Washington, D.C.
· Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari to participate in a fireside chat on the economy in Minneapolis, Minnesota.
· USA MBA Mortgage Market Index MAY/10/ Inflation Rate YoY APR/ CPI APR/ Retail Sales YoY APR/ Balance of Trade MAR/ EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change MAY/10, NOPA Crush Report/ Net Long-term TIC Flows MAR/ Foreign Bond Investment MAR/ Overall Net Capital Flows MAR
· Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity MAR
· Canada Housing Starts APR/ Manufacturing Sales MoM Final MAR
· Colombia GDP Growth Rate YoY Q1/ ISE Economic Activity YoY MAR
· Peru GDP Growth Rate YoY MAR/ Unemployment Rate APR
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Singapore’s Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong steps down to be replaced by Deputy Prime Minister Lawrence Wong, the country’s former finance minister.
· Today is Buddha’s Birthday, celebrated by many Asian nations.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Australia Wage Price Index YoY Q1
· Thailand GDP Growth Rate YoY Q1
· Philippines Cash Remittances MAR
· Indonesia Exports/ Imports/ Balance of Trade APR
· India M3 Money Supply YoY MAY/03/ Passenger Vehicles Sales YoY APR/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade APR
· Sri Lanka Manufacturing & Services PMI APR
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Russian President Vladimir Putin is scheduled to visit Beijing for meetings with Chinese President Xi Jinping through May 16.
· The EU Financial Stability Review of the implications of artificial intelligence on financial stability is pre-released.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Romania GDP Growth Rate YoY Prel Q1
· Hungary Construction Output YoY MAR/ Industrial Production YoY Final MAR
· France Inflation Rate YoY Final APR
· Slovakia GDP Growth Rate YoY Prel Q1
· Poland GDP Growth Rate YoY Prel Q1/ Inflation Rate YoY Final APR
· Turkey Budget Balance APR
· Slovenia GDP Growth Rate YoY Q1
· Euro Area Employment Change YoY Prel Q1/ GDP Growth Rate YoY 2nd Est Q1/ Industrial Production YoY MAR
· Ireland Residential Property Prices YoY MAR
· Russia Building Permits MAR/ Balance of Trade MAR/ GDP Growth Rate YoY Prel Q1
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Palestinians commemorate “Nabka Day” (“Catastrophe”) commemorating when 70,000 Arabs fled due to the creation of the State of Israel.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate YoY APR/ Wholesale Prices YoY APR
· Kazakhstan GDP Growth Rate YoY Q1/ GDP YoY APR
· Israel Inflation Rate YoY APR
· Oman M2 Money Supply YoY MAR/ Total Credit YoY MAR
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· The 17th German-Africa Energy Forum is being held in Hamburg, Germany, through May 16.
· The 11th Africa CEO Forum will bring together business leaders, investors, and policymakers from Africa and around the world to Kigali, Rwanda.
Economic Reports/Events –
· South Africa Retail Sales YoY MAR
· Nigeria Inflation Rate YoY APR
· Kenya GDP Growth Rate YoY Q4
· Egypt Unemployment Rate Q1
Thursday, May 16, 2024
Global
· UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres will attend the Arab League Summit in Manama and will have remarks.
· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the United Nations Assistance Mission for Iraq (UNAMI), followed by consultations.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Economic Reports/Events –
· Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr will testify at a hearing entitled “Oversight of Financial Regulators” before the U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs.
· Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker to speak on “The Economic Impact of Higher Education and Healthcare Institutions" and participate in a conversation before the hybrid 2024 Anchor Economy Conference in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.
· USA Building Permits Prel APR/ Import & Export Prices APR/ Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index MAY/ Philly Fed Business Conditions MAY/ Capacity Utilization APR/ Industrial & Manufacturing Production YoY APR
· Colombia Imports/ Balance of Trade MAR
· Uruguay Interest Rate Decision
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Cambodia and China will conduct "Golden Dragon" military exercises through May 30. The exercises will combine land, sea, and air drills symbolizing the strengthening defense ties between the two nations.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Australia RBA Hunter Speech/ Employment Change APR/ Participation Rate APR
· Japan Foreign Bond Investment MAY/11/ GDP Growth Rate QoQ Prel Q1/ Stock Investment by Foreigners MAY/11/ Capacity Utilization MoM MAR/ Industrial Production YoY Final MAR
· Philippines Interest Rate Decision
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· NATO’s highest military authority, the Military Committee, gathers in Brussels for a meeting, also attended by the Ukrainian chief of defense.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Bank of England External Member of the Monetary Policy Committee Megan Greene gives a speech at the Make UK Conference entitled “The current state of Britain’s Labour market.”
· Germany Bundesbank Mauderer Speech/ Bundesbank President Nagel Speech
· Euro Area ECB Financial Stability Review
· Italy Inflation Rate YoY Final APR/ Balance of Trade MAR
· Great Britain BoE Financial Stability Report
· Ireland Balance of Trade MAR
· Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves MAY/10/ Auto Production & Sales YoY APR
· Poland Core Inflation Rate YoY APR
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Israel GDP Growth Annualized 1st Est Q1
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· The Arab League Summit will be held in Bahrain. Among the invitees are Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. He had been excluded from the annual meetings since the start of the Syrian Civil War. The Gaza War will be the primary issue for discussion as well as the situation in Yemen and Houthi attacks on international shipping.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Friday, May 17, 2024
Global
· Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will visit Chile to meet with President Gabriel Boric for a State Visit to discuss South American integration.
· Guatemalan President Arevalo visits Mexico for meetings with Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrado.
· Peru will host the ASEAN Trade Ministers in Arequipa, Peru.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr will testify at a hearing entitled “Oversight of Financial Regulators” before the U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs.
· Canada New Housing Price Index YoY APR/ Foreign Securities Purchases MAR
· USA CB Leading Index MoM APR
· Argentina Leading Indicator MoM APR
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· New Zealand PPI Input and Output QoQ Q1
· South Korea Unemployment Rate APR
· Singapore Non-Oil Exports YoY APR/ Balance of Trade APR
· China House Price Index YoY APR/ Industrial Production YoY APR/ Retail Sales YoY APR/ Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) YoY APR/ Unemployment Rate APR/ NBS Press Conference/ FDI (YTD) YoY APR
· Indonesia Property Price Index YoY Q1
· Malaysia Current Account Q1/ GDP Growth Rate YoY Final Q1
· Hong Kong GDP Growth Rate YoY Final Q1
· India Bank Loan Growth YoY MAY/03/ Deposit Growth YoY MAY/03/ Foreign Exchange Reserves MAY/10
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will meet with Moldovan President Maia Sandu in Berlin, Germany.
Economic Reports/Events –
· ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos gives remarks at the Banking Sector Industry Meeting organized by IESE Business School in Madrid, Spain.
· Bank of England monetary policy committee member Catherine Mann speaks at the annual ESCoE Conference on Economic Measurement, held in partnership with the Office for National Statistics, at Alliance Manchester Business School.
·
· France Unemployment Rate Q1
· Switzerland Industrial Production YoY Q1
· Slovakia Harmonized Inflation Rate YoY APR
· Great Britain BoE Mann Speech
· Euro Area Inflation Rate YoY Final APR/ CPI Final APR
· Russia Current Account MAR/ Inflation Rate YoY APR
· Belarus GDP YoY APR/ Industrial Production YoY APR
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Kazakhstan Industrial Production YoY APR
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Angola Interest Rate Decision/ Foreign Exchange Reserves/ M3 Money Supply YoY APR
· Ghana PPI YoY APR
Saturday, May 18, 2024
Global
· The 10th World Water Forum opens in Bali and runs through May 25.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana D. Kugler gives the Commencement Speech at the University of Virginia 2024 Commencement Ceremony – Frank Batten School of Leadership and Public Policy, Charlottesville, Virginia.
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Sunday, May 19, 2024
Global
· Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· The Dominican Republic holds presidential and legislative elections. Incumbent President Luis Abinader, from the Modern Revolutionary Party (PRM), is expected to win a second term.
· President Joe Biden delivers address at Morehouse College’s commencement ceremony. Protests are expected over the US support for Israel and a number of faculty and students have demanded the invitation be rescinded.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome H. Powell gives the Commencement Remarks at the Georgetown Law Commencement Ceremony in Washington, D.C.
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
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