The Global Week Ahead January 22-29, 2023:

Happy Year of the Rabbit!  China and much of the rest of Asia celebrate the Lunar New Year this week, an event that could see an estimated 2 billion visits by Chinese in the coming weeks despite COVID continuing to rage across the country. 

The EU Foreign Affairs Council will meet to discuss slapping new sanctions on Iran over their nuclear weapons development, a likely final nail in the efforts to bring back to life the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action), which President Trump pulled out of in 2018.  Elsewhere, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov travels to South Africa in an attempt to counter the impact of President Biden’s successful Africa Summit in December.  Russia is increasingly looking to find allies in Africa.

And the World Health Organization (WHO) will meet to decide whether to classify COVID as a global pandemic. 

The US Congress returns from a week off and will likely begin the long, slow political battle over raising the debt ceiling.  US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said two weeks ago the ceiling would be hit this past Thursday and “extraordinary means” would be undertaken to avoid a default.  We do not see a deal emerging for months and historically high risk a default could occur considering the intra-party fractures in the House Republican Caucus over the issue.

On the global economic agenda this week,  the US will release Q4 GDP figures and global PMI numbers.  The Bank of Canada will decide on a possible rate increase, and we will see the Bank of Japan release minutes from their most recent interest rate meeting.  Other interest rate decisions will be taken in Thailand, Hungary, and Nigeria.   Europe, Germany, Italy, and France will release consumer confidence figures.  And in Asia, Japan will be releasing PMIs and the Tokyo CPI. 

Here is what else we are watching around the world this week:

Sunday, January 22, 2023:

Global

·       UN Secretary-General António Guterres will attend the Ocean Race Summit, which is taking place in Mindelo, a city on the island of São Vicente in Cape Verde.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       China celebrates the beginning of the Lunar New Year (the Year of the Rabbit). Despite rampant cases of COVID, Chinese officials expect more than 2 billion trips to be taken between now and February 15th.

·       New Zealand's ruling Labor Party will vote for a new leader and interim prime minister after the current Prime Minister, Jacinda Ardern, announced her intention to step down.  The 42-year-old said last week she “no longer had enough in the tank” for the premiership.  A general election has been called for October 14th.

·       Japan’s Yamanashi Prefecture holds gubernatorial elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Franco-German Council of Ministers is scheduled to be held this weekend. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and his cabinet will travel to Paris, and there will also be a joint ceremony of the two parliaments at the Sorbonne University. The occasion: 60 years of the Élysée Treaty. A press conference by Scholz and France’s Macron is expected on Sunday.

·       Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni will travel to Algeria today and through Monday as part of efforts to boost Italy’s natural gas supply through suppliers besides Russia.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, January 23, 2023:

Global

·       The OECD holds a High-Level Symposium on Pro-Competitive Policies for a Sustainable Economy in Paris, France.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US Congress returns to session this evening following being out last week for the Martin Luther King holiday.

·       Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva visits Argentina.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US CB Leading Index (December)

·       Canada New Housing Price Index (December)

·       Central Bank of Brazil Focus Market Readout

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Philippines celebrates First Philippine Republic Day, marking the day Emilio Aguinaldo declared the country's independence after 300 years of Spanish rule.

·       India observers Parakram Diwas, a national holiday marking the birth of Netaji Subhas Chanda Bose, a prominent nationalist and politician.

·       Japan’s Diet (Legislature) convenes.  Prime Minister Fumio Kishida will deliver a policy speech to the Diet, likely focusing on budget and defense issues.

·       The Head of the Japan Business Federation, known as Keidanren, and the head of the Japanese Trade Union Confederation, known as Rengo, to hold a meeting about annual "shunto" spring wage negotiations.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       Singapore URA Property Index (Q4)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to visit South Africa.  The visit is seen by some as an attempt to offset President Biden’s Africa Summit in December, where more than 55 African leaders attended.  Lavrov is then expected to visit Morocco, Algeria, Mauritania, and Tunisia in February.

·       The EU Foreign Affairs Council meets to discuss possible new sanctions on Iran.  They will also discuss Russian aggression against Ukraine and the Sahel and coastal countries of West Africa. It will also be informed about current affairs, with a focus on Armenia, Afghanistan, Venezuela, Montenegro, and Ethiopia. Over a working lunch, EU foreign affairs ministers will hold an informal exchange of views with the Palestinian Prime Minister Mohammed Shtayyeh.

·       In the UK, over 2,600 members of the Unison union who are ambulance workers will go on strike.  Additionally, an estimated 1,000 Welsh Ambulance Services members who are members of the Unite union will go on a 24-hour strike over pay.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB President Christine Lagarde gives a speech at the Deutsche Börse Annual Reception in Eschborn, Germany.

·       ECB Board Member Fabio Panetta gives an introductory statement at the Hearing before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) of the European Parliament in Brussels.

·       UK CBI Director-General Tony Dankers gives a speech, “Is the UK Stuck in a Rut on Growth?” at the UCL campus in London.

·       Eurozone Consumer Confidence (January)

·       German Economics Minister Robert Habeck and Elga Bartsch, the new department head for economic policy, will present the Annual Economic Report 2023 at the Federal Press Conference.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The Chairman of the Russian State Duma (parliament), Vyacheslav Volodin, is expected to visit Tehran for meetings on trade and military procurement.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Consumer Confidence (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       In London, Nigeria is due to mount a legal defense at London’s High Court, fighting to overturn an $11 billion arbitration award that left the Nigerian government owing more than a quarter of its foreign reserves to an oil & gas company, Process and Industrial Developments.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, January 24, 2023:

Global

·       The UN Security Council meets to discuss the situation in Haiti.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Argentina hosts a conference of the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC).  CELAC consists of 33 countries in the Americas.  The US and Canada are not included.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Redbook (January 21st), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI/Global Services PMI (January), Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index (January), Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (January)

·       Canada Manufacturing Sales (December)

·       Brazil Federal Tax Revenues (December), IPCA mid-month CPI (January)

·       Mexico Mid-month Inflation Rate (January)

·       Argentina Economic Activity (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       New Zealand will see Chris Hipkins sworn in as the new Prime Minister following Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s resignation last week.

·       Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. to launch an H-2A rocket carrying a Japanese government intelligence-gathering satellite.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI/Services PMI (January)

·       Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI/Services PMI (January), NAB Business Confidence (December)

·       Indonesia M2 Money Supply (December)

·       Thailand Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Parliament is expected to vote on the European Commission’s version of the Chips Act, which is aimed at strengthening the EU’s semiconductor supply chain.

·       EU President Ursula von der Leyen meetings with Netherlands Prime Minister Mark Rutte.

·       The UK Shadow Foreign Secret David Lammy will lay out the Labour Party’s foreign policy in London.

·       The 15th European Space Conference will be held in Brussels.

·       Romania celebrates Unification Day, marking the day in 1859 when the two Romanian principalities of “Modavia” and “Wallachia” came together to form the Union of the Romanian Principalities.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB President Christine Lagarde gives a video message at a roundtable entitled "The euro as a guarantee of resilience" at a high-level conference entitled "Croatia, the 20th member of the eurozone" in Zagreb, Croatia.

·       ECB Board Member Kerstin af Jochnick participates in a panel entitled “Regulated Financial Service Providers” at 11th Institute for Law and Finance' conference “The Next Systemic Financial Crisis – Where Might it Come From?”: Financial Stability in a Polycrisis World”  hosted by the University of Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Eurozone S&P Global Manufacturing PMI/Global Services PMI (January)

·       Germany GfK Consumer, S&P Global Manufacturing PMI/Global Services PMI (January)

·       France Business Confidence (January), Business Climate Indicator (January), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI/Global Services PMI (January)

·       UK Public Sector Net Borrowing (December), S&P Global/CIPS Global Manufacturing PMI/Global Services PMI (January)

·       Hungary Central Bank monetary decision

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (November)

·       Nigerian Central Bank interest-rate decision

·       Tanzania GDP  

Wednesday, January 25, 2023:

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing followed by consultations on the Middle East (Syria). In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the International Criminal Court (ICC) Sudan.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will meet with Uruguayan President Luis Lacalle Pou in Uruguay after attending the CELAC Conference.

·       Bolivia is bracing for large-scale protests calling for the release of Santa Cruz Provincial Governor Luis Fernando Camacho.  Camacho, a leading national voice for the right-wing opposition, was arrested in December and charged with “terrorism” for his alleged involvement in the 2019 political unrest that resulted in then-President Evo Morales fleeing the country.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (January 20th), MBA Mortgage Applications (January 20th), MBA Mortgage Market Index (January 20th)

·       Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision and Monetary Policy Report

·       Brazil  FGV Consumer Confidence (January)

·       Mexico Economic Activity (November)

·       Argentina Interest Rate Decision, Retail Sales (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Leading Economic Index Final (November), Coincident Index Final (November)

·       Singapore CPI (December), Inflation Rate (December)

·       Australia Westpac Leading Index (December), Inflation Rate (Q4), Monthly CPI Indicator (December)

·       Bank of Thailand Interest Rate Decision

·       Central Bank of Sri Lanka Interest Rate Decision

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Justice and Home Affairs Ministers will hold an informal meeting (through the 27th).

·       EU President Ursula von der Leyen meets with Israeli President Isaac Herzog.

·       Portugal’s airline, PortugalTAP, will experience a strike by their cabin crews who are seeking better pay and working conditions.

·       In the UK, Amazon workers who are members of the GMB union and work at a warehouse in Coventry will go on strike over pay.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Non-Monetary Policy Meeting

·       Germany Ifo Business Climate (January), Current Conditions (January), Ifo Expectations (January)

·       France Unemployment Benefit Claims (December)

·       Spain PPI (December)

·       Russia PPI (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Egypt marks the 12th anniversary of its 2011 revolution, which led to the resignation of President Hosni Mubarak.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Balance of Trade (November)

·       Turkey Business Confidence (January), Capacity Utilization (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Tunisia is bracing for a Tunisian General Labor Union-backed transportation sector strike through Jan. 26.

·       The African Development Bank, the Senegalese government, and the Africa Union Commission will host a food summit on the theme “Feed Africa: Food Sovereignty and Resilience.”

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Mozambique interest-rate decision 

Thursday, January 26, 2023:

Global

·       the UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on “Peacebuilding and sustaining peace: Investment in People to enhance resilience against complex challenges.”

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US GDP (Q4), Durable Goods Orders (December), Retail Inventories (December), Wholesale Inventories (December), Jobless Claims (January), Real Consumer Spending (Q4), New Home Sales (December), Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index (January), Kansas Fed Composite Index (January), Building Permits (December), Chicago Fed National Activity Index (December)

·       Canada CFIB Business Barometer (January), Average Weekly Earnings (November), Wholesale Sales (December)

·       Brazil Current Account (December), FDI (December)

·       Mexico Unemployment (December)

·       Argentina Consumer Confidence (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Australia celebrates Australia Day, marking the day the first European settlement was established in 1788.  It is a national holiday.

·       India celebrates India Republic Day, a national holiday, marking the date the Indian Constitution was finalized in 1947.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Summary of Opinions

·       India M3 Money Supply (January)

·       South Korea Consumer Confidence (January), GDP (Q4)

·       Singapore Industrial Production (December)

·       Philippines GDP (Q4), Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (December), Industrial Production (December)

·       Hong Kong Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       UK Car Production (December), CBI Distributive Trades (January)

·       Spain Unemployment (Q4)

·       Italy Consumer Confidence (January), Business Confidence (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi will attend Republic Day in New Delhi as a special guest of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

·       Turkey's opposition alliance will discuss potential presidential candidates to run in the June general election.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey MPC Meeting Summary, Inflation Report, FX Reserves (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Arica Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Prime Overdraft Rate, PPI (December)

·       Zambia inflation, trade data

Friday, January 27, 2023:

Global

·       Today is the International Day of Commemoration in Memory of the Victims of the Holocaust.  

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a meeting followed by consultations on the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA).

·       The World Health Organization (WHO) will determine whether or not to continue classifying COVID-19 as a global emergency.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Personal Income (December), PCE Price Index (December), Michigan Consumer Sentiment (January), Michigan Inflation Expectations (January), Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations (January), Michigan Consumer Expectations (January), Michigan Current Conditions (January), Pending Home Sales (December),

·       Canada Budget Balance

·       Brazil Bank Lending (December), Net Payrolls (December)

·       Mexico Balance of Trade (December)

·       Argentina Consumer Confidence (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China is expected to release preliminary data on consumption trends during the seven-day Lunar New year holidays.

·       Japan Tokyo CPIs (January)

·       South Korea Business Confidence (January)

·       India Deposit Growth (January), Bank Loan Growth (January), FX Reserves (January)

·       Singapore Import Prices (December), Export Prices (December), PPI (December)

·       Australia PPI (Q4), Export Prices (Q4), Import Prices (Q4)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Russian President Vladimir Putin will visit St. Petersburg to mark the 80th anniversary of the end of the blockade of Leningrad.

·       The European Banking Authority launches an EU-wide stress test for banks.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Eurozone Loans to Households (December), Loans to Companies (December), M3 Money Supply (December)

·       Germany Import Prices/Export Prices (December)

·       France Consumer Confidence (January)

·       Italy Industrial Sales (November)

·       Spain GDP (Q4)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Eswatini interest-rate decision

Saturday, January 28, 2023:

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Former President Donald Trump is expected to make his first public campaign event since announcing his intention to run for President again.  The event will be held in South Carolina, where two prominent Republicans, former Governor Nikki Haley and incumbent US Senator Tim Scott, are considering a run for the Republican nomination, too.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Armenia celebrates Army Day, a national holiday.

·       The Czech Republic holds the second round of the presidential elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, January 29, 2023:

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Vietnam CPI (January), Industrial Output (January), Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report

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