Fulcrum Perspectives
An interactive blog sharing the Fulcrum team's policy updates and analysis.
The Global Week Ahead
Canadian PM Carney Meets with President Trump, Russia Celebrates Victory Day, While Chinese President Xi Meets with Russian President Putin, and the Federal Reserve and Bank of England Decide Interest Rates
This week marks the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II in Europe – V.E. Day. Great Britain, Russia, and other European nations will host parades and festivities to mark the historic occasion. Russia is offering Ukraine a short-term cease-fire on Friday to allow Russia to celebrate what it calls Victory Day.
As part of the Victory Day celebration in Moscow, a number of leaders will attend in person, including Chinese President Xi Jinping. Xi arrives on May for one-on-one meetings with Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss a number of critical issues, including President Trump's tariffs, the war in Ukraine a, furthering China's support for Russia, and US efforts to negotiate with Iran over its nuclear program.
Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will also meet with Putin on the sidelines of the celebrations. Brazil is chairing the BRICS this year and will discuss ways to strengthen the bloc in the face of Trump's riffs.
It will be a busy week in Europe. At the Vatican, the Conclave of Cardinals begins to elect a new pope. 135 cardinals will gather in a closed meeting until they elect the successor to the late Pope Francis. As the Conclave begins, EU foreign ministers will be meeting in Warsaw to discuss how to strengthen European mutual security to counter Russia, as well as how to deal with the US tariffs on the EU. And Friedrich Mertz is expected to be elected by the German Bundestag (Parliament) this week as the country's new Chancellor.
In Asia, we are watching the continued (and growing) tensions between Pakistan and India as a result of last month's attack in Kashmir that killed 26 civilians. India blames Pakistan for supporting the terrorists responsible for the attack and is threatening to attack Pakistan in response. While the US and EU work with both India and Pakistan to find a peaceful solution, we note that Iran is also trying to play a role. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi is traveling to both countries this week to mediate.
In Washington, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, coming off a winning election last week, will meet with President Donald Trump to discuss tariffs placed on Canada. We believe Trump is leaning toward lifting or at least temporarily suspending some of the tariffs.
Washington is likely to be buzzing with visiting trade representatives coming to meet with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, and other senior Trump Administration officials seeking deals to get out from under Trump's tariffs. Last week, meetings between Japanese and South Korean officials were held, but no deals were reached, and from what we have heard from numerous sources, the talks did not go well.
Looking at the global economic radar screen for the coming week, the US Federal Reserve Board and the Bank of England's monetary policy decisions will dominate the market's attention. The Fed—despite President Trump's demands for rate cuts—is expected to hold rates steady, while the Bank of England is expected to cut rates by 24 basis points.
Several other central bank and monetary policy-focused meetings will also be important to watch this week. The European Central Bank is holding an off-site in Portugal, where we expect commentary on the impact of tariffs on the state of the European and global economy. In Iceland, the Reykjavik Economic Conference 2025 on Friday and Saturday will host a slew of central bankers who will be giving major speeches and talking on panels, while at the Hoover Institute at Stanford University, the Hoover Monetary Policy Conference will also see a number of central bankers from various countries speaking.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will be testifying before the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday on the state of the international financial system. It will certainly be a lively hearing as Bessent will face intense questions about the impact of the Trump tariffs on global markets in general and the US economy in particular.
In the midst of all this, US March trade data will be out on Tuesday, Q1 data on Thursday, and productivity and labor data on Monday, while the April ISM services report will be out on Monday.
In Europe, Germany reports factory orders, industrial production, and trade balance figures on Thursday, while France reports its trade balance on Wednesday and industrial production on Tuesday. The Eurozone's April CPI is out on Thursday.
In Asia, China reports April trade figures on Friday, while the Bank of Japan releases its March monetary policy minutes on Thursday.
Below are all the other major political and economic events we are watching in the coming week:
Sunday, May 4, 2025
Global
· Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· The Milken Institute Global Conference begins in Beverly Hills, California and runs through May 8..
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Japan's parliamentary vice-minister for foreign affairs, Matsumoto Hisashi, will visit Algeria and Tunisia through May 6.
· China will hold its Golden Week holiday through May 5, and Japan will celebrate through May 6.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Romania holds presidential elections.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Lebanon holds the first phase of its municipal elections.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Monday, May 5, 2025
Global
· OPEC+ Ministerial meetings take place in Vienna, Austria.
· The UN Security Council is scheduled to have consultations on 1559 report (peace keeping in Lebanon).
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· US Secretary of State Marco Rubio will meet with Organization of Eastern Caribbean States (OECS) leaders to discuss tariffs.
· The Milken Global Conference begins in Beverly Hills, California. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will speak at the conference.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (April)/ BCB Focus Market Readout
· Canada S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (May)
· USA S&P Global Composite & Services PMI Final (April)/ ISM Services PMI (April)/ ISM Services Business Activity (April)/ ISM Services Employment (April)/ ISM Services New Orders (April)/ ISM Services Prices (April)
· Uruguay Inflation Rate (April)
· Mexico Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)
· Argentina Tax Revenue (April)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Vietnamese Communist Party General Secretary To Lam will visit Kazakhstan through May 7.
· South Korea celebrates the Birth of Buddha. Financial markets are closed.
· Japan celebrates Children’s Day. Financial markets are closed.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Australia S&P Global Composite & Services PMI Final (April)/ ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (April)/ TD-MI Inflation Gauge (April)
· Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)
· Indonesia GDP Growth Rate Q1
· Singapore Retail Sales (March)
· Pakistan Interest Rate Decision
· India Government Budget Value (March)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Milan will host of the 58th annual meeting of the Asian Development Bank’s Board of Governors.
· In Great Britain, Members of the armed forces will march from Parliament Square, kicking off a week of 80th VE Day anniversary events, including a recitation of Winston Churchill’s victory speech as Big Ben strikes midday, and a military fly-past over central London.
· In France, rail passengers are set to be hit by industrial action over the early May public holiday. The CGT-Cheminots, SNCF’s largest union, has called for an indefinite strike starting today, pushing for better pay for drivers.
Economic Reports/Events –
· In the UK, today is an Early May bank holiday. Financial markets are closed.
· Ireland Consumer Confidence (April)
· Romania Unemployment Rate (March)
· Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)
· Switzerland Inflation Rate (April)
· Hungary HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (April)
· Spain Tourist Arrivals (March)/ New Car Sales (April)
· Turkey Inflation Rate (April)/ PPI (April)
· Slovenia Balance of Trade (March)
· Serbia PPI (April)
· France New Car Registrations (April)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (April)
· United Arab Emirates S&P Global PMI (April)
· Jordan PPI (March)
· Kuwait M2 Money Supply (March)/ Private Bank Lending (March)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Ghana Inflation Rate (April)
· Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)/ M2 Money Supply (March)
Tuesday, May 6, 2025
Global
· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a debate on Bosnia and Herzegovina.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney will travel to Washington to meet with President Donald Trump to discuss tariffs.
· The US Senate Banking Committee will vote on the nominations of Michelle Bowman to be the Federal Reserve Board Vice Chairman for Supervision.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Mexico Gross Fixed Investment (February)
· Canada Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)/ Ivey PMI s.a (April)
· USA Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)/ Redbook (May/03)/ RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (May)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (May/02)/ LMI Logistics Managers Index (April)
· Brazil S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (April)
· Colombia PPI (April)/ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Malaysia hosts the 46th ASEAN summit.
· South Korea celebrates Children’s Day. Financial markets are closed.
· Japan celebrates Greenery Day, a public holiday. Financial markets are closed.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Singapore S&P Global PMI (April)
· Philippines Inflation Rate (April)
· Australia Building Permits (March)/ Private House Approvals (March)
· China Caixin Composite & Services PMI (April)
· Vietnam Balance of Trade (April)/ Foreign Direct Investment (April)/ Industrial Production (April)/ Inflation Rate (April)/ Retail Sales (April)/ Tourist Arrivals (April)
· India HSBC Composite & Services PMI Final (April)
· Thailand Business Confidence (April)
· Taiwan Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)
· New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index (May/13)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· In Germany, Friedrich Merz will be voted in as the new Chancellor.
· The European Commission is expected to release plans for ending reliance on Russian oil and gas imports.
· The Defense 24 Days security conference begins in Warsaw, Poland.
· The Athens International Defense and Security Expo begins in Athens, Greece.
Economic Reports/Events –
· The European Central Bank begins its two-day Governing Council of the ECB: annual retreat hosted by Banco de Portugal.
· Bank of England Deputy Governor for Financial Stability Sarah Breeden will be a panelist at the Global Finance and Technology Networks’ 4th Point Zero Forum.
· Ireland AIB Services PMI (April)
· Switzerland Unemployment Rate (April)
· Romania PPI (March)
· France Industrial Production (March)/ HCOB Composite & Services PMI (April)
· Spain Unemployment Change (April)/ HCOB Composite & Services PMI (April)
· Italy HCOB Composite & Services PMI (April)
· Germany HCOB Composite & Services PMI (April)/ New Car Registrations (April)
· Euro Area HCOB Composite & Services PMI (April)/ PPI (March)
· Great Britain New Car Sales (April)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI Final (April)
· Ukraine Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Turkey will conduct the Denizkurdu-II-2025, or Sea Wolf-II-2025, naval exercise in the Black, Aegean and eastern Mediterranean seas through May 17.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Egypt S&P Global PMI (April)
· South Africa S&P Global PMI (April)
Wednesday, May 7, 2025
Global
· Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· The RealID requirements enter into force in the US for all air travel
Economic Reports/Events –
· US Federal Reserve Board Interest Rate Decision & Press Conference/USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (May/02)/ MBA Purchase Index (May/02)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (May/02)/ Consumer Credit Change (March)/ Used Car Prices (April)
· Brazil Industrial Production (March)/ Balance of Trade (April)/ Interest Rate Decision
· Chile Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)
· Ecuador Inflation Rate (April)
· Colombia Exports (March)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Chinese President Xi Jinping will travel to Moscow for meetings with Russian President Vladimir Putin and to participate in the Victory Day celebrations.
· ASEAN+3 Finance Ministers meet in Milan, Italy.
Economic Reports/Events –
· South Korea Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)
· New Zealand Employment Change Q1/ Unemployment Rate Q1/ Labour Costs Index Q1/ Participation Rate Q1
· Australia Ai Group Industry Index (April)/ Ai Group Construction Index (April)/ Ai Group Manufacturing Index (April)
· Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (April)
· Japan Jibun Bank Composite & Services PMI Final (April)
· Philippines Unemployment Rate (March)/ Industrial Production (March)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)
· Thailand Inflation Rate (April)
· Taiwan Inflation Rate (April)
· Singapore Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)
· China Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· At the Vatican, the conclave to elect the next pope beings.
· Germany's incoming Chancellor Friedrich Merz will meet French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris, France, marking his first foreign trip in office. Later in the day, he will then travel to Poland to meet with Prime Minister Donald Tusk
· There will be an informal meeting of EU Foreign Affairs Ministers in Warsaw, Poland, through May 8.
· In Denmark, the Copenhagen Climate Ministerial, co-hosted by Danish climate, energy and utilities minister Lars Aagaard, COP30 president-designate ambassador André Corrêa do Lago and outgoing COP29 president Mukhtar Babayev. Discussions at the two-day meeting will revolve around implementation of last year’s COP29 plans and the key expectations for this year’s COP30
· Today is the 25th anniversary of Valdimire Putin first being elected.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Germany Factory Orders (March)/ HCOB Construction PMI (April)
· Russia S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (April)
· Hungary Retail Sales (March)
· France Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)/ Current Account (March)/ Private Non-Farm Payrolls Q1/ HCOB Construction PMI (April)
· Slovakia Retail Sales (March)
· Switzerland Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)
· Euro Area HCOB Construction PMI (April)/ Retail Sales (March)
· Italy HCOB Construction PMI (April)/ Retail Sales (March)
· Great Britain S&P Global Construction PMI (April)
· Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)/ Interest Rate Decision (May)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi travels to New Delhi, India and Pakistan in an attempt to mediate between the two countries after Pakistani terrorists attacked Indian tourists in Kashmir.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Israel Tourist Arrivals (April)/ Business Confidence (April)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Thursday, May 8, 2025
Global
· The UN Security Council is scheduled to vote on a draft resolution on the mandate of the United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS).
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will travel to Russia to meet with President Vladimir Putin.
· The 3rd Latin Consumer Summit begins in Miami, Floria.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Brazil PPI (March)/ Car Production (April)/ New Car Registrations (April)
· Chile Inflation Rate (April)
· Mexico Inflation Rate (April)
· USA Initial Jobless Claims (May/03)/ Nonfarm Productivity Q1/ Unit Labour Costs Q1/ Continuing Jobless Claims (April/26)/ Jobless Claims 4-week Average (May/03)/ Wholesale Inventories (March)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (May/08)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (April)/ Fed Balance Sheet (May/07)
· Canada Financial Stability Report
· Colombia Inflation Rate (April)
· Peru Interest Rate Decision/ Balance of Trade (March)
· Argentina Industrial Production (March)
· Costa Rica Inflation Rate (April)
· El Salvador Inflation Rate (April)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Vietnamese Communist Party General Secretary To Lam will end his trip to Azerbaijan and visit Russia through May 10.
Economic Reports/Events –
· New Zealand RBNZ Financial Stability Report
· Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
· Philippines GDP Growth Rate Q1
· Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)/ Motorbike Sales (April)IL
· Malaysia Industrial Production (March)/ Interest Rate Decision
· Taiwan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)
· Hong Kong Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Today is the anniversary of “VE Day”, 80 years since the surrender of Nazi Germany.
· Russia is expected to begin a 72-hour ceasefire with Ukraine. But most observers do not believe Russian military forces will cease fighting.
· The Ukrainian Parliament will vote to approve the US-Ukraine economic/critical minerals deal
Economic Reports/Events –
· European Central Bank Executive Board Member Anneli Tuominen moderates a panel discussion on “Repo market: Turmoil at the core of the financial system?” at SUERF BAFFI Bocconi webinar.
· Germany Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)/ Industrial Production (March)
· Romania Retail Sales (March)
· Bank of England Interest Rate Decision/Halifax House Price Index (April)/ BBA Mortgage Rate (April)
· Hungary Industrial Production (March)/ Budget Balance (April)
· Spain Industrial Production (March)
· Greece Balance of Trade (March)
· Ireland Inflation Rate (April)
· Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (May/02)/ Treasury Cash Balance (April)
· Euro Area ECB Tuominen Speech
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will travel to Azerbaijan for talks. Netanyahu will discuss tensions with Turkey and Iran.
· Turkish and Iraqi delegations will attend the High-Level Strategic Cooperation Council meeting in Ankara, Turkey.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· South Africa Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)/ Manufacturing Production (March)
· Tanzania Inflation Rate (April)
Friday, May 9, 2025
Global
· Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael Barr speaks on Artificial Intelligence and the Labor Market at the Reykjavik Economic Conference 2025, Reykjavik, Iceland.
· Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana Kugler gives a speech on Maximum Employment at the Reykjavik Economic Conference 2025, Reykjavik, Iceland.
· New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams speaks before the Reykjavik Economic Conference organized by the Central Bank of Iceland and the Center for International Macroeconomics at Northwestern University. Later, he will speak on “Taylor Rules in Policy” before the Hoover Institution Monetary Policy Conference virtually.
· Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech on monetary policy research at the Hoover Monetary Policy Conference: Finishing the Job and New Challenges, Stanford, California. Governor Lisa Cook will also speak at the conference, giving a speech on Productivity Dynamics.
· Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Hammack will also speak before the Hoover Monetary Policy Conference on the topic of monetary policy.
· The Federal Reserve Board holds the 8th Short-Term Funding Markets Conference in Washington, D.C.
· Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee gives welcome and opening remarks before the “Fed Listens: Perspectives from the Midwest" event.
· US Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (May/09)
· Brazil Inflation Rate (April)
· Mexico Consumer Confidence (April)/ Auto Production & Exports (April)
· Canada Unemployment Rate (April)/ Employment Change (April)/ Participation Rate (April)/ Average Hourly Wages (April)
· Costa Rica Unemployment Rate Q1
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· South Korea Current Account (March)
· Japan Household Spending (March)/ Average Cash Earnings (March)/ Overtime Pay (March)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)/ Coincident Index (March)/ Leading Economic Index Prel
· Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (April)
· China Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)/ Vehicle Sales (April)/ Current Account Q1/ New Yuan Loans (April)/ M2 Money Supply (April)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (April)/ Total Social Financing (April)
· Indonesia Consumer Confidence (April)
· Malaysia Construction Output Q1/ Unemployment Rate (March)
· Thailand Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)
· India Bank Loan Growth (April/25)/ Deposit Growth (April/25)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May/02)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· The European Union celebrates Europe Day, marking the 1950 declaration by the Luxembourg-born French statesman Robert Schuman proposing a continent united in solidarity, considered the first step towards the EU being formed.
· French President Emmanuel Macron will host Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk in Nancy to sign a Franco-Polish economic and defense cooperation treaty.
· Russia will celebrate Victory Day, marking the date when German forces surrendered to the Soviet army in 1945, commemorated with a military parade in Moscow’s Red Square and wreath-laying at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier. Attendees this year are set to include Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico and Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey gives the keynote address at the Reykjavik economic conference 2025, hosted by Northwestern University and the Central Bank of Iceland.
· European Central Bank Executive Board Member Isabel Schnabel participates on a panel discussion at the Hoover Monetary Policy Conference “Finishing the Job and New Challenges” of Harvard University.
· Great Britain RICS House Price Balance (April)/ BoE Bailey Speech/ NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (April)
· Hungary Inflation Rate (April)
· France Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)
· Slovakia Balance of Trade (March)/ Industrial Production (March)
· Switzerland Consumer Confidence (April)
· Turkey Industrial Production (March)
· Italy Industrial Production (March)
· Slovenia Industrial Production (March)
· Greece Inflation Rate (April)
· Ireland Industrial Production (March)
· Serbia Interest Rate Decision
· Russia Vehicle Sales (April)
· Euro Area ECB Schnabel Speech
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Egypt Inflation Rate (April)
· Mozambique Inflation Rate (April)
Saturday, May 10, 2025
Global
· Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Vietnamese Communist Party General Secretary To Lam will visit Belarus through May 12.
Economic Reports/Events –
· China Inflation Rate (April)/ PPI (April)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Sunday, May 11, 2025
Global
· Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· The US Department of Commerce will be holding its SelectUSA Investment Summit in Baltimore, Maryland. The Summit, which runs through May 14, aims to attract foreign direct investment.
· Haiti holds a Constitutional Referendum, the first referendum held in the country since 1987. Originally scheduled for June 27, 2021, it has been repeatedly postponed because of political chaos. The referendum puts up for a vote the abolition of the Senate and creates a unicameral legislature, abolishes the role of Prime Minister, and creates a presidential and vice-presidential system. It would also establish mandatory military and/or civic services for those turning 18.
· Uruguay will hold municipal elections.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Uruguay Municipal Elections
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· In South Korea, today is the registration deadline for presidential candidates hoping to run in the June 3 election.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Albania will hold general elections. In October, Albania started discussions with the European Union on how the country aligns with EU stances on the rule of law, the functioning of democratic institutions and the fight against corruption. Prime Minister Rama hopes that Albania can join the European Union by 2030.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Lebanon will hold the second phase of its municipal elections.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (March)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Recommended Weekend Reads
The Impact of Heightened US–China Tensions on the Treasury Market, How Do US Firms Deal With Foreign Industrial Policy?, and How Drug Cartels Took Over Social Media
Growing US-China Tensions
How China is Quietly Diversifying from US Treasuries Financial Times
Earlier this year, a headline caught the eye of the senior officials at China’s foreign exchange regulator, who manage the country’s multitrillion-dollar reserves: the Trump administration had overhauled the boards of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The officials responded swiftly, instructing a team at the State Administration of Foreign Exchange to kick off an evaluation of the potential investment implications of the shake-up. What intrigued the officials at Safe, according to people familiar with the matter, is that they saw mortgage-backed securities — which come with an implicit US government guarantee — or even equity stakes in Fannie and Freddie themselves, as possible alternatives to Treasuries… many [Chinese] advisers, scholars and academics are voicing concern. As “The safety of US Treasuries is no longer a given…”
Will China Escalate? Foreign Affairs
In 2021, at the contentious first meeting between senior Chinese foreign policy officials and their counterparts in the Biden administration, Beijing’s top diplomat, Yang Jiechi, declared that the United States could no longer “speak with China from a position of strength.” In the four years since, Beijing has operated under the assumption that a profound shift in the balance of power between the two countries is underway. Chinese strategists perceive their country’s decades-long “strategic weakness” in its competition with the United States as coming to an end, driven by steady advances in China’s industrial, technological, and military capabilities and an increase in its international influence. This progress has ushered in what Beijing views as a “strategic stalemate” with the United States, in which both nations now wield comparable power. But despite the low immediate risk of conflict between the United States and China, the current stalemate may not prove durable. Over the next four years, the risk of a military crisis will likely rise as the two countries increasingly test each other’s resolve.
Charting the End State for US Strategy Toward China Collective Commentary/Foreign Policy Research Institute
As trade tensions between the US and China grow and bring with them new levels of political and military tensions, a group of China experts at the FPRI offers perspectives on how Trump needs to formulate a China strategy and stop dealing with China tactically.
China’s New Economic Weapons Evan Medeiros & Andrew Polk/Washington Quarterly
In the past decade, China’s use of economic coercion has become a common and well-studied feature of its economic statecraft. For the most part, China has used conventional coercive tools such as stopping its purchasing of goods and services (e.g., commodities and tourism), withholding investments, restricting foreign companies’ operations in China, and “spontaneous” consumer boycotts, all as a means of imposing economic costs on others. China’s track record in altering other countries’ calculations has been decidedly mixed, and its actions have even generated some backlash by countries newly concerned about such predation. However, since 2018, this pattern of behavior has been evolving. China’s economic statecraft—specifically its tools of coercion—has been expanding.
DeepSeek’s release of an open-weight frontier AI model International Institute for Strategic Studies
The January 2025 release of a frontier reasoning large language model by the Chinese firm DeepSeek, nearly matching the performance of top American closed models at a fraction of the cost, has intensified the debate over the geopolitics of artificial intelligence. It appears that US export controls forced DeepSeek to seek optimizations regarding memory management and the use of synthetic data.
Americas
After Canada’s Election: An Energy Abundance Strategy for North America Center for Strategic and International Studies
One outcome from North America’s three recent elections is clear—a citizenry that is more “energy literate” when it comes to the importance of policymakers getting this critical issue right. Simply put, energy is the lifeblood of the North American economy. While the North American relationship is certainly replete with challenges, there is an opportunity in the coming year to thread the needle and move towards an abundance strategy for the region’s energy sources. Notably, this could represent a rare moment of North American alignment on a critical issue for the region’s future.
Argentina’s Realignment with the United States: Milei’s Reforms Gain Strategic Support Center for Strategic and International Studies
Argentina’s rapprochement to the United States under President Javier Milei is not just ideological—it is strategic. While pushing through painful economic reforms at home, Milei is aligning with Washington on multiple fronts: International Monetary Fund (IMF) negotiations, defense ties (NATO partnership bid and F-16 purchase), and personal diplomacy with U.S. President Donald Trump. U.S. Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent’s one-day stop in Buenos Aires—right as the new FX regime kicked in and amid Trump’s tariff rollout—was no coincidence. It signals that Argentina is being treated as the closest ally in South America, where U.S. influence is under pressure under China’s global rise.
How Drug Cartels Took Over Social Media The Atlantic
Cartels are influencers now. They have converted their criminality into a commodity, broadcasting with impunity while law enforcement and social-media platforms struggle to rein them in. On TikTok, drug traffickers filmed themselves fleeing from customs agents in a high-speed boat chase, garnering millions of likes. Some content is less Miami Vice and more cottagecore: farmers harvesting poppy seeds, for instance. Keep scrolling and you might find henchmen bagging bales of $100 bills, tiger cubs lounging in trucks, and dogs trotting with decapitated heads in their mouths.
Global Markets and Economics
U.S. Treasury Market Functioning from the GFC to the Pandemic Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Abstract: This article examines U.S. Treasury securities market functioning from the global financial crisis (GFC) through the Covid-19 pandemic given the ensuing market developments and associated policy responses. We describe the factors that have affected intermediaries, including regulatory changes, shifts in ownership patterns, and increased electronic trading. We also discuss their implications for market functioning in both normal times and times of stress. We find that alternative liquidity providers have stepped in as constraints on dealer liquidity provision have tightened, supporting liquidity during normal times, but with less clear effects at times of stress. We conclude with a brief discussion of more recent policy initiatives that are intended to promote market resilience.
How Do U.S. Firms Withstand Foreign Industrial Policies? Xiao Cen, Vyacheslav Fos, & Wei Jiang/National Bureau of Economic Research
China’s industrial policies (“Five-Year Plans”) displace U.S. production/employment and heighten plant closures in the same industries as those targeted by the policies in China. The impact was not anticipated by the stock market, but U.S. companies in the "treated industries" suffer a valuation loss afterwards. Firms shift production to upstream or downstream industries, benefiting from the boost, or offshore to government-endorsed industries in China. Such within-firm adjustments offset the direct impact. U.S. firms are better able to withstand foreign government interventions provided that they enjoy flexibility, including preexisting business toeholds in the "beneficiary" industries, financial access, and labor fluidity.
Stock Buybacks and Tax Neutrality: Should Congress Repeal the 1% Excise Tax on Buybacks? Kyle Pomerleau & John Ricco/Tax Notes
Lawmakers enacted a 1 percent excise tax on stock buybacks, in part to address concerns that buybacks were tax-favored relative to dividends and had a negative effect on corporate investment. The excise tax does reduce the tax differential between dividends and buybacks, but it does so at the cost of increasing the overall tax burden on saving and investment. Moreover, it introduces and increases existing distortions across types of taxpayers, legal forms of business organization, and forms of financing. Alternative reforms could similarly reduce or eliminate the distortion without introducing others, but they come with important trade-offs of their own.
U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead
Congress Returns to Work, HFSC Focuses on the Power of Proxy Advisors, Atkins Sworn in as SEC Chair, OCC Agenda Detailed, and Fed Releases Financial Stability Report
April 28 - May 2, 2025
Washington has just finished a frenetic World Bank/IMF Spring meeting week, but won’t be slowing down in the coming week. Congress returns to work after a two-week break and will hunker down and focus on hammering out the massive Reconciliation package. Achieving a successful outcome will not be easy or soon, as House and Senate Republicans continue to battle over basic elements of the tax portion of the bill. We also anticipate new battles emerging as members of Congress seek to restore budget cuts imposed by DOGE.
It appears the House Financial Services Committee (HFSC) intends to help with the budget-cut effort by taking funding from the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) while also eliminating the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board (PCAOB), folding its work back into the Securities and Exchange Commission. Of note, all collected fines, aside from money paid to direct victims, will be sent to the Treasury, helping to reduce the deficit. The HFSC will mark up legislation on Wednesday to make all this happen and is expected to pass on a strict party-line vote.
Over in the Senate, we will likely get clarity this week as to when Comptroller of the Currency nominee Jonathan Gould will get his final Senate confirmation vote and when the Senate Banking Committee will vote on the confirmation of Fed Governor Michelle Bowman as Vice Chair for Supervision.
In advance of Gould’s final vote, Acting Comptroller Rodney Hood will be giving a talk on the OCC’s work and agenda on fintech, debanking, and the agency’s overall regulatory priorities at a conference this week.
Credit union regulation gets a lot of attention this week. Former National Credit Union Administration (NCUA) board members Todd Harper (who was NCUA Chair under President Biden) and Tanya Otsuka announced they have filed suit against President Trump for firing them earlier this month. Harper will be speaking at the Brookings Institution on Thursday about the future of credit union regulation and what he thinks is going to happen at the NCUA.
Looking back at the last week, Paul Atkins was sworn in as the Securities and Exchange Commission’s 34th Chairman. And, as the always excellent Capitol Account pointed out, he was immediately flooded with letters and memos from a host of financial trade groups pleading for regulatory relief and/or offering the new chair advice on all the things he should do (and not do). As Capital Account pointed out, among the many issues raised ranged from enforcement to e-delivery, to corporate governance to all things crypto (side note: Capitol Account is the best daily report on what’s going on with regard to financial services and well worth the subscription. It’s a true must-read).
Finally, we would note that the Federal Reserve released its semi-annual Financial Stability Report last week. You can find the report HERE. Among the rising risks to overall financial stability cited by the Fed include global trade uncertainty and continued worry about the sustainability of US debt, including a significant rise in concern over the functioning of US Treasury markets. The report also raised concerns over hedge fund leverage, noting that the largest funds are now at historic highs.
Below is all we see happening in the coming week. Please let us know if you have any questions.
U.S. Congressional Hearings
U.S. Senate
· Thursday, May 1, 10:00 a.m. – The Senate Banking Committee will hold a hearing entitled “Examining Insurance Markets and the Role of Mitigation Policies.”
House of Representatives
· Tuesday, April 29, 10:00 a.m. – The House Financial Services Committee’s Subcommittee on Capital Markets will hold a hearing entitled “Regulatory Overreach: The Price Tag on American Prosperity.”
· Tuesday, April 29, 2:00 p.m. – The House Financial Services Committee will hold a hearing entitled “Exposing the Proxy Advisory Cartel: How ISS & Glass Lewis Influence Markets.”
Federal Department & Regulatory Agency Meetings & Events
Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks
· There are no significant events or speeches scheduled at this time.
U.S. Treasury Department
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Department of Commerce
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Department of Housing and Urban Development
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Small Business Administration
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Securities and Exchange Commission
· Thursday, May 1, 2:00 p.m. – The SEC will hold a Closed Meeting.
Commodities Futures Trading Commission
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Office of the Comptroller of the Currency
· Thursday, May 1, 9:30 a.m. – The Acting Comptroller of the Currency, Rodney Hood, will discuss the OCC’s work addressing debanking, promoting bank-fintech partnerships, and supporting financial inclusion in a Q&A at the 2025 Innovative Payments Conference in Washington, D.C.
The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
FINRA
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
National Credit Union Administration
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Farm Credit Administration
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
·
Farm Credit Insurance Corporation
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
International Monetary Fund & World Bank
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
North American Securities Administrators Association
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Trade Associations & Think Tank Events
Trade Associations
· Wednesday, April 30 – Friday, May 2 – The Investment Company Institute holds its annual Leadership Summit in Washington, D.C.
Think Tanks and Other Events
· Tuesday, April 29, 2:00 a.m. – The Bipartisan Policy Center holds a virtual discussion, beginning at 2 p.m., on "Stuck in Place: How Housing Policies Shape Mobility and Economic Opportunity."
· Thursday, May 1, 9:30 a.m. –Reuters NEXT Newsmakers talks virtually with Charles Schwab CEO Rick Wurster Reuters on "the economic outlook, the proliferation of retail trading and Schwab's growth plans in Texas, exchange-traded funds and cryptocurrencies.”
· Thursday, May 1, 9:00 a.m. – 5:00 pm. – The American Conference Institute holds a conference on "Economic Sanctions Enforcement and Compliance."
· Thursday, May 1, 11:00 a.m. – The Brookings Institution will hold an event entitled “Credit union regulation at a crossroads: A conversation with former NCUA Board Member Todd M. Harper”
Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.
The Global Week Ahead
Canada, Australia, and Singapore Hold Elections, Japan and South Korea Talk Trade MOUs in Washington, India-Pakistan Tensions Continue to Rise, BRICS Foreign Ministers Meet, the Bank of Japan Considers Interest Rates Amidst a Small Flood of Global Economic Reports
April 27 - May 4, 2025
Coming off the whirlwind of last week's World Bank/IMF Spring meetings in Washington, the geopolitical/geoeconomic week ahead will be almost as busy. First, Canada, Australia, and Singapore hold elections this week. We are particularly focused on Monday's Canadian elections, which, according to polls, strongly suggest the incumbent Labor Party – only months ago destined for defeat – is poised to make an extraordinary comeback under the leadership of current Prime Minister Mark Carney.
Carney used President Trump's punitive tariffs on illegal immigration and Fentanyl trafficking, along with Trump's antagonistic suggestions that Canada should become the US's 51st state, to rally the Labor Party and the country to keep him in power. The only question now is how large a margin Labor wins.
Sticking with tariffs, there are three important events to watch this week. We expect to see South Korean and Japanese trade negotiators in Washington for further talks and possibly signing Memorandums of Understanding (MOUs) with the Trump Administration. The question markets are focused on is whether the MOUs effectively suspend US tariffs on both countries and how long that suspension will last. Also, this week, the Trump Administration's tariffs on important auto parts go into effect, which will likely result in increased auto prices.
Meanwhile, in Brazil, the BRICS foreign ministers will meet in Rio de Janeiro this week. Top of the agenda will be the Trump tariffs and a discussion on how to accelerate their goal of establishing alternative trade and financial systems. The foreign minister meetings will be followed by a meeting of BRICS national security advisors to discuss how to work more closely on security and intelligence sharing.
Moving to the Middle East, the US is expected to meet with Iranian officials again on April 26 for another round of talks on Iran's nuclear program. That meeting — and all future meetings—will be negotiating highly technical/highly complicated aspects of Iran's uraninium enrichment program, which will likely make the talks much tougher and slower.
We are also watching closely the devolving situation between India and Pakistan. Tensions rose massively following a militant attack in Indian-administered Kashmir last week that killed 26 people. India shut the border with Pakistan, suspended all visa services for Pakistan nationals, and suspended the Indus Water Treaty with Pakistan, which is reliant on the sharing of the river water. The two nations have always had, at best, working relations that sporadically nosedives because of events like the one in Kashmir. Considering both countries have large nuclear arsenals, it is never good to see them ramp up tensions.
Looking at the global economic radar screen, the coming week will see a number of important economic indicators released in most of the major economies. In the US, there will be no Federal Reserve speeches as the Fed goes into its two-week Blackout Period before its May interest rate meeting. Markets (and the Fed) will look at the April jobs data on Friday, the core March PCE and Q1 GDP on Wednesday, the ISM manufacturing index on Thursday, and the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence report and JOLTS data on Tuesday. In addition, the US Treasury will release its updated borrowing estimates on Monday.
Turning to Asia, the Bank of Japan meets on Thursday to consider interest rates. Consensus suggests the Bank will hold rates. Japan will also be releasing industrial production numbers and retail sales on Wednesday and consumer confidence survey on Thursday – which will be interesting to see if there is movement in the wake of the Trump tariffs. In China, the April PMIs and the Caixin manufacturing index are out on Wednesday – again, likely to be interesting early indicators of the impact of the Trump tariffs.
Moving to Europe, Germany, France, and Italy release CPIs on Wednesday. The Eurozone CPI is out on Friday. Additionally, Q1 GDP reports for Germany, France, Italy, and the Eurozone are out on Wednesday, too. Consumer confidence reports for Germany and Italy are out on Thursday, as is the European Central Bank's consumer expectations survey.
Below is what else we are tracking around the world in the week ahead:
Sunday, April 27, 2025
Global
· Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Canada Federal Election
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba will visit Vietnam through April 29.
· The secretary general of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party, Sanae Takaichi, will lead a delegation to China through April 29.
Economic Reports/Events –
· China Industrial Profits (YTD) (March)
· Thailand New Car Sales (March)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Monday, April 28, 2025
Global
· The BRICS Foreign Ministers will meet in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil through April 29.
· The BRICS Heads of ‘space agencies will meet in Brazil.
· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open briefing by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees. In the afternoon, there is a private meeting on non-proliferation of weapons of mass destruction.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Canada holds federal elections. The ruling Liberal Party looks on track to retain power with Prime Minister David Carney staying in the prime minister seat.
· The US Congress returns to work after a two-week recess for the Easter/Passover holidays.
· Trinidad and Tobago elections for their House of Representatives.
· The Cayman Islands hold parliamentary elections as well as vote on a referendum on the decriminalizing of cannabis, funding for new cruise berth infrastructure, and the legalization of gambling in the form of a national lottery.
· Amazon is scheduled to launch the first 27 satellites or tis Project Kuiper, its fast internet network. The network is seeking to rival Elon Musk’s Starlink system.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Brazil Current Account (March)/ Foreign Direct Investment (March)/ BCB Focus Market Readout
· Mexico Balance of Trade (March)/ Unemployment Rate (March)
· Canada Wholesale Sales (March)
· USA Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (April)/ Treasury Refunding Financing Estimates
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Taiwan Consumer Confidence (April)
· Malaysia PPI (March)
· Hong Kong Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)
· India Manufacturing & Industrial Production (March)
· Pakistan Consumer Confidence (March)/ Consumer Confidence (April)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· There will be an informal meeting of EU Environmental Ministers through April 29 in Warsaw, Poland.
· In Brussels, NATO will hold a ceremony to mark the 70th anniversary of German accession to the military bloc.
Economic Reports/Events –
· The European Central Bank will publish its 2024 Annual Report. ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos will present the report to the ECON Committee in Brussels.
· Ireland Consumer Confidence (April)
· Spain Unemployment Rate Q1/ Retail Sales (March)
· France Unemployment Benefit Claims (March)/ Jobseekers Total (March)
· Great Britain CBI Distributive Trades (April)
· Euro Area ECB Guindos Speech
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Israel Manufacturing Production (February)
· Kuwait M2 Money Supply (March)/ Private Bank Lending (April)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Tuesday, April 29, 2025
Global
· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on the Middle East. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres is expected to deliver remarks. In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on Ukraine.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Brazil IGP-M Inflation (April)/ Bank Lending (March)/ Net Payrolls (March)
· USA Goods Trade Balance (March)/ Redbook (April/26)/ S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (February)/ House Price Index (February)/ JOLTs Job Openings (March)/ Dallas Fed Services Index (April)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (April/25)
· Chile Unemployment Rate (March)/ Interest Rate Decision
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba will visit the Philippines through April 30. He will meet with Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. to discuss mutual security issues and China’s growing military presence in the region as well as the US tariffs.
· The Indonesia Electric Vehicle Show begins in Jakarta.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor for Financial Markets Christopher Kent will give a speech at the Bloomberg Conference in Sydney, Australia.
· Singapore Unemployment Rate Q1/ Export Prices (March)/ Import Prices (March)/ PPI (March)
· Indonesia Foreign Direct Investment Q1
· Philippines Budget Balance (March)
· Kazakhstan Business Confidence Q1
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will meet with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and attend the fourth Turkey-Italy intergovernmental summit in Rome, Italy.
· In Poland, 13 EU member states that border the Baltic, Adriatic and Black seas, begin a two-day summit in Warsaw for the Three Seas Initiative. The Initiative seeks to improve political and commercial relations together among the 13 countries.
· Japan celebrates Showa Day. Financial markets are closed.
Economic Reports/Events –
· European Central Bank Executive Board Member Piero Cipollone will give the welcoming speech on "Financial and trade fragmentation: risks and policy alternatives" at the joint BIS, Bank of England, ECB and IMF Spillover Conference 2025 "Policy challenges in a fragmenting world: Global trade, exchange rates, and capital flows" in Frankfurt, Germany.
· European Central Bank Executive Board Member Sharon Donnery will give the keynote speech on "What are the ECB’s plans for 2025? What are the regulatory priorities?" at the annual Conference on Banking Supervision organized by Handelsblatt in Frankfurt, Germany.
· Bank of England Deputy Governor for Markets and Banking David Ramsden will give a keynote speech at the Innovate Finance Global Summit in London.
· Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (May)
· Hungary PPI (March)/ Deposit Interest Rate (April)/ Interest Rate Decision
· Euro Area Loans to Households (March)/ M3 Money Supply (March)/ Economic Sentiment (April)/ Consumer Confidence Final (April)/ Industrial Sentiment (April)/ Services Sentiment (April)
· Slovakia Business Confidence (April)/ Consumer Confidence (April)
· Spain GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Inflation Rate (April)/ Business Confidence (April)
· Turkey Unemployment Rate (March)/ Economic Confidence Index (April)/ Participation Rate (March)
· Italy Business Confidence (April)/ Consumer Confidence (April)/ Industrial Sales (February)
· Slovenia Retail Sales (March)
· Great Britain BoE Ramsden Speech
· Greece Total Credit (March)
· Ireland GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Retail Sales (March)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Wednesday, April 30, 2025
Global
· The UN Security Council is scheduled to vote on a draft resolution on the United Nations Mission in South Sudan. In the afternoon, there is a private meeting on Myanmar.
· The National Security Advisors of the BRIC member states will meet in Brasilia, Brazil.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Japanese trade negotiators will visit the United States for a second round of high-level talks on tariffs.
· Today is the 100th day of the Trump Administration.
Economic Reports/Events –
· USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (April/25)/ MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (April/25)/ MBA Purchase Index (April/25)/ ADP Employment Change (April)/ Employment Cost Index Q1/ GDP Price Index Q1/ PCE Prices Q1/ Real Consumer Spending Q1/ Treasury Refunding Announcement/ Chicago PMI (April)/ Personal Income & Spending (March)/ PCE Price Index (March)/ Pending Home Sales (March)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (April/25)
· Brazil Gross Debt to GDP (March)/ Nominal Budget Balance (March)/ Unemployment Rate (March)
· Mexico GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Fiscal Balance (March)
· Canada GDP (February)
· Chile Copper Production (March)/ Industrial Production (March)/ Manufacturing Production (March)/ Retail Sales (March)
· Colombia Business Confidence (March)/ Unemployment Rate (March)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Cement Production (March)
· Uruguay Balance of Trade (March)
· Argentina Tax Revenue (March)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· South Korea Industrial Production (March)/ Retail Sales (March)
· Japan Industrial Production (March)/ Retail Sales (March)/ Housing Starts (March)/ Coincident Index Final (February)/ Construction Orders (March)/ Leading Economic Index Final (February)
· New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence (April)
· Philippines Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)/ PPI (March)
· Australia Inflation Rate Q1/ CPI Q1/ Private Sector Credit (March)/ RBA Trimmed Mean CPI Q1/ RBA Weighted Median CPI Q1/ CoreLogic Dwelling Prices (April)
· China NBS Manufacturing & Non- Manufacturing PMI (April)/ NBS General PMI (April)/ Caixin Manufacturing PMI (April)
· Singapore Bank Lending (March)/ Business Confidence Q1
· Thailand Industrial Production (March)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Current Account (March)/ Private Consumption & Investment (March)/ Retail Sales (February)
· Malaysia M3 Money Supply (March)
· Taiwan GDP Growth Rate Q1
· Sri Lanka Inflation Rate (April)/ PPI (March)/ Balance of Trade (March)
· India Government Budget Value (March)/ M3 Money Supply (April/18)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Bank of England Executive Director for Prudential Policy David Bailey will give a speech at the Climate Financial Risk Forum in London.
· Bank of England Executive Director for Insurance Supervision Gareth Trunan gives a speech at the 22nd Insurance Conference on Overseeing BPA Growth Safely.
· France GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Household Consumption (March)/ Inflation Rate (April)/ PPI (March)
· Germany Retail Sales (March)/ Import Prices (March)/ Unemployed Persons (April)/ Unemployment Rate (April)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Baden Wuerttemberg CPI (April)/ Bavaria CPI (April)/ Brandenburg CPI (April)/ Hesse CPI (April)/ North Rhine Westphalia CPI (April)/ Saxony CPI (April)/ Inflation Rate (April)
· Great Britain Nationwide Housing Prices (April)
· Hungary Balance of Trade (March)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1
· Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (April)/ Economic Sentiment Index (April)
· Turkey Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade Final (March)/ Tourism Revenues Q1/ Tourist Arrivals (March)
· Euro Area ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations (March)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1/ ECB Montagner Speech
· Italy GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Inflation Rate (April)/ PPI (March)
· Poland Inflation Rate (April)
· Spain Current Account (February)
· Slovenia Inflation Rate (April)
· Greece PPI (March)/ Retail Sales (February)/ Unemployment Rate (March)
· Ireland Unemployment Rate (April)/ Harmonized Inflation Rate (April)
· Serbia Balance of Trade (March)/ Industrial Production (March)/ Retail Sales (March)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1
· Russia Business Confidence (April)/ Real Wage Growth (February)/ Retail Sales (March)/ Unemployment Rate (March)/ M2 Money Supply (March)/ GDP (March)
· Ukraine Current Account (March)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Israel Composite Economic Index (March)
· Saudi Arabia M3 Money Supply (March)/ Private Bank Lending (March)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Zimbabwe M3 Money Supply (March)/ Private Sector Credit (March)/ Budget Balance (March)
· Nigeria Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)
· Egypt Current Account Q4
· Kenya Inflation Rate (April)
Thursday, May 1, 2025
Global
· Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· USA Challenger Job Cuts (April)/ Initial Jobless Claims (April/26)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (April)/ ISM Manufacturing PMI & Employment (April)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (May/01)/ Fed Balance Sheet (April/30)
· Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)
· Peru Inflation Rate (April)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· A Chinese ban on foreign missionaries sharing their faith or establishing religious organizations will go into effect.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Australia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (April)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)/ Commodity Prices (April)/ PPI Q1
· South Korea Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)
· Bank of Japan Central Bank Interest Rate Decision/Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI Final (April)/ BoJ Quarterly Outlook Report/ Consumer Confidence (April)
· Kazakhstan Current Account Q1
· Indonesia Tourist Arrivals (January, February, & March)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Today is a public holiday – May Day - in most of Europe. Markets are closed.
· In the UK, 24 English local elections will be held as well as six regional mayor races and by-election to decide two member of parliament seats. The elections are seen as bellwether for how the ruling Labor Party is seen by voters and how Nigel Farage’s Reform UK Party is faring.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Great Britain Local Elections/ BoE Consumer Credit (March)/ Mortgage Lending & Approvals (March)/ M4 Money Supply (March)/ Net Lending to Individuals (March)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (April)
· Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI (April)
· Switzerland Retail Sales (March)/ procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (April)
· Hungary HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (April)
· Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (April/25)
· France Budget Balance (March)/ HCOB Manufacturing PMI (April)
· Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)
· Turkey Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (April)
· Spain HCOB Manufacturing PMI (April)
· Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI (April)/ Unemployment Rate (March)
· Euro Area ECB Economic Bulletin/ HCOB Manufacturing PMI Final (April)
· Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)
· Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (April)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Saudi Arabia GDP Growth Rate Q1
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Zimbabwe ABSA Manufacturing PMI (April)/ Total New Vehicle Sales (April)
Friday, May 2, 2025
Global
· Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Mexico Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)/ Business Confidence (April)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)
· Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (March)
· Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)
· Colombia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (April)
· Paraguay Inflation Rate (April)
· Uruguay Inflation Rate (April)
· Argentina Tax Revenue (April)
· USA Unemployment Rate (April)/ Participation Rate (April)/ Government Payrolls (April)/ Manufacturing Payrolls (April)/ U-6 Unemployment Rate (April)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (May/02)/ Total Vehicle Sales (April)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Exports from China and Hong Kong will lose their qualification for U.S. de minimis duty exemptions.
Economic Reports/Events –
· New Zealand Building Permits (March)
· South Korea Inflation Rate (April)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)
· Japan Unemployment Rate (March)/ Jobs/applications ratio (March)/ Foreign Bond Investment (April/26)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (April/26)
· Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)/ Inflation Rate (April)
· Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)
· Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)
· Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)
· Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)
· India HSBC Manufacturing PMI Final (April)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April/25)
· Hong Kong GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Retail Sales (March)
· Pakistan Inflation Rate (April)/ Wholesale Prices (April)/ Balance of Trade (April)
· Singapore General Elections
· Kazakhstan Inflation Rate (April)
· Australia General Elections
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Euro Area Inflation Rate (April)/ Unemployment Rate (March)/ CPI Flash (April)
· France New Car Registrations (April)
· Spain New Car Sales (April)
· Italy New Car Registrations (April)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (April)
· Egypt M2 Money Supply (March)
Saturday, May 3, 2025
Global
· Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· The Trump Administration’s 25 percent tariffs on important auto parts go into effect.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· In Australia, federal elections will be held. The ruling Labor Party is expected to lose its small majority in the lower house but retain enough power to form a minority government.
· In Singapore, elections will be held. The ruling People’s Action Party is expected to win again, as they have in every election since 1959.
· South Korea's ruling People Power Party will select its candidate for the June 3 presidential election.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Sunday, May 4, 2025
Global
· Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· The Milken Institute Global Conference begins in Beverly Hills, California and runs through May 8..
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· The Asian Development Bank annual meeting begins a four-day session in Milan, Italy.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Romania holds presidential elections.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Recommended Weekend Reads
Gauging China’s Economy in Uncertain Times, Assessing the Long-Term Effects of the Trade Wars, Artificial Intelligence and the Future of the US Electrical Grid, and the Race for Dominance in Nuclear Fusion
April 25 - 27, 2025
Please find below our list of studies and articles that we found particularly interesting this week and wanted to recommend to you. We hope you find them interesting and useful, and that you have a great weekend.
The Future of China in the Face of the US Trade Wars
The Once and Future China: How Will Change Come to Beijing? Rana Mitter/Foreign Affairs
If you dropped in to China at any point in its modern history and tried to project 20 years into the future, you would almost certainly end up getting it wrong. In 1900, no one serving in the late Qing dynasty expected that in 20 years the country would be a republic feuded over by warlords. In 1940, as a fractious China staggered in the face of a massive Japanese invasion, few would have imagined that by 1960, it would be a giant communist state about to split with the Soviet Union. In 2000, the United States helped China over the finish line in joining the World Trade Organization, ushering the country into the liberal capitalist trading system with much fanfare. By 2020, China and the United States were at loggerheads and in the midst of a trade war. Where is China going to be 20 years from now? Harvard Professor Rana Mitter does a deep dive, looking at various scenarios.
Gauging the Strength of China’s Economy in Uncertain Times Jeffrey B. Dawson & Hunter L. Clark/Liberty Street Economics blog (Federal Reserve Bank of New York)
Amid increasing pressure on the Chinese economy from China’s trade conflict with the U.S., assessing the strength of the Chinese economy will be an important watch point. While China is likely to counter growth headwinds from the escalating trade tensions with additional policy stimulus, the country’s complex fiscal dynamics and the varying interpretations of the strength of its economic growth made judgments of the efficacy of China’s policy response challenging even in a more predictable environment. In this respect, we argue that aggregate credit is a simple and effective measure to gauge policy stimulus in China. At present, China’s “credit impulse”—the change in the flow of new aggregate credit to the economy relative to GDP—appears likely sufficient to allow it to muddle through with steady but not strong growth over the next year, despite the intensifying trade conflict.
How China-India Relations Will Shape Asia and the Global Order Chatham House
The China–US relationship is widely regarded as the defining geopolitical issue of the 21st century. But relations between China and India arguably hold greater long-term significance for the future of Asia and the global order. These two nations are the world’s most populous,together accounting for almost 40 per cent of the global population. China is the world’s second largest economy, with India currently the fifth largest – and soon to be the third largest. Yet, despite their rise having important consequences for the future of global governance, China–India relations are poorly understood outside of those countries. This report delves into what is likely to happen.
Geoeconomics and Trade
Long Run Effects of the Trade Wars David Baqaee & Hannes Malmberg/National Bureau of Economic Research Working Papers
This short note shows that accounting for capital adjustment is critical when analyzing the long-run effects of trade wars on real wages and consumption. The reason is that trade wars increase the relative price between investment goods and labor by taxing imported investment goods and their inputs. This price shift depresses capital demand, shrinks the long-run capital stock, and pushes down consumption and real wages compared to scenarios when capital is fixed. We illustrate this mechanism by studying recent US tariffs using a dynamic quantitative trade model. When the capital stock is allowed to adjust, long-run consumption and wage responses are both larger and more negative. With capital adjustment, U.S. consumption can fall by 2.6%, compared to 0.6% when capital is held fixed, as in a static model. That is, capital stock adjustment emerges as a dominant driver of long-run outcomes, more important than the standard mechanisms from static trade models — terms-of-trade effects and mis- allocation of production across countries.
G30 Spring Lecture 2025: "Commanding Heights: Central Banks at a Crossroads" Kevin Warsh Lecture at the International Monetary Fund
Kevin Warsh is widely seen as a leading candidate to replace Jay Powell as Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board. Indeed, President Trump has cited Warsh as someone he is considering. Warsh gave a lecture at the IMF this past week as part of the World Bank/IMF meetings in Washington. You can read the remarks via the link in the title above or watch his remarks via this video link.
Supply, Demand and the Post-Lockdown Inflation Surge St Louis Federal Reserve Bank
Only recently have economists started tracking category-level consumer inflation using their associated movements in quantities. Adam Shapiro, an economist and vice president at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Adam Shapiro, an economist and vice president at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, used the supply-demand framework described to classify inflation at the consumption-category level into supply- and demand-driven components. In a recent working paper, St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank economists implemented an extension of Shapiro’s method, which distinguishes between the trend component of inflation and inflation attributable to supply and demand shocks. Their study generalizes his approach in a few ways, distinguishing between the current and past effects of those shocks. This allowed their study to parse the part of inflation that’s expected in the absence of supply- and demand-side “shocks” (the trend), as well as the parts of inflation explained by the ongoing expected effects of shocks in previous periods (past) versus shocks happening right now (current).
The Global Race for Energy Dominance
AI and the Future of the U.S. Electric Grid Rand
Despite its age, the U.S. electric grid remains one of the great workhorses of modern life. Whether it can maintain that performance over the next few years may determine how well the U.S. competes in an AI-driven world. AI is a big part of the challenge. Its vast data centers suck up energy like small cities. But a recent RAND study suggests AI could be a big part of the solution, too. There are risks here—some obvious, some not—and grid operators need to move with caution. But AI could usher in an energy future that is more resilient, more efficient, and more affordable for customers. Companies working with AI have warned that they are already struggling to find the power they need. Keeping them on U.S. soil has become a national imperative, especially in light of the deepening competition with China. That means upgrading and modernizing the grid, much of which was built in the 1960s and ‘70s.
The cheapest way to supercharge America’s power grid MIT Technology Review
US electricity consumption is rising faster than it has in decades, thanks in part to the boom in datacenter development, the resurgence in manufacturing, and the increasing popularity of electric vehicles. Accommodating that growth will require building all sorts of energy producing capacity (e.g., nuclear, hydropower, wind turbine, solar farms, etc.) faster than we ever have before—and expanding the network of wires needed to connect those facilities to the grid. But one major problem is that it’s expensive and slow to secure permits for new transmission lines and build them across the country. This challenge has created one of the biggest obstacles to getting more electricity generation online, reducing investment in new power plants and stranding others in years-long “interconnection queues” while they wait to join the grid. Fortunately, there are some shortcuts that could expand the capacity of the existing system without requiring completely new infrastructure: a suite of hardware and software tools known as advanced transmission technologies (ATTs), which can increase both the capacity and the efficiency of the power sector.
Grid Connection Barriers to New-Build Power Plants in the United States Lawrence Livermore Laboratory
The backlog of proposed power plants that have submitted grid connection requests (i.e., the interconnection queues) is larger than ever. As reported in our flagship Queued Up report, grid connection requests active at the end of 2023 were more than double the total installed capacity of the US power plant fleet (2,600 GW vs. 1,280 GW). Solar, battery storage, and wind energy account for 95% of all active capacity in the queues. The unprecedented volume of requests in queues points to significant shifts in the generation mix of the US power system, but is also evidence of a significant structural and regulatory bottleneck for plants seeking grid connection. The amount of time spent in queues has increased by 70% over the last decade, and withdrawal rates remain high at 80%. Interconnection costs have risen and are highest for wind, solar, and battery storage projects. To better understand the dynamics of interconnection and what solutions may be available, we compiled and analyzed two unique datasets for the first time, in “Grid connection barriers to renewable energy deployment in the United States,” in the journal Joule.
The US Led on Nuclear Fusion for Decades. Now China is in a Position to Win the Race CNN
US companies and industry experts are worried America is losing its decades-long lead in the race to master this near-limitless form of clean energy, as new fusion companies sprout across China, and Beijing outspends DC. Nuclear fusion, the process that powers the sun and other stars, is painstakingly finicky to replicate on Earth. The prize of this energy is its sheer efficiency. A controlled fusion reaction releases around four million times more energy than burning coal, oil or gas, and four times more than fission, the kind of nuclear energy used today. It won’t be developed in time to fight climate change in this crucial decade, but it could be the solution to future warming. The Chinese government is pouring money into the venture, putting an estimated $1 billion to $1.5 billion annually into fusion, according to Jean Paul Allain, who leads the US Energy Department’s Office of Fusion Energy Sciences. In comparison, the Biden administration has spent around $800 million a year.
U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead
The World Bank/International Monetary Fund Meets This Week, Watching for the Global Financial Stability Report, the OCC Reorganizes as the CFPB Slashes Remaining Staff, and the FCUA Board Goes to One Member
April 21 - 25, 2025
Although the US Congress remains out of session this week, plenty of regulatory action is happening. The World Bank/International Monetary Fund (WB/IMF) spring meetings are this week. With the meetings comes the publication (Tuesday) of the semi-annual Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR), an assessment of the global financial markets that also identifies potential risks to financial stability. We will be watching to see which market segments are seen as rising risk and how US regulators respond to the report.
Also as part of the WB/IMF week, the G10 and G20, respectively, will be meeting on the sidelines. We will be interested to see what comes out of those meetings in the wake of recent market disruptions caused by the Trump tariff announcements.
Not to be missed amidst all the WB/IMF action this week is acting CFTC Chair Caroline Pham's sit-down with Bloomberg on Thursday, during which she will outline the agency's agenda and policy priorities going forward.
Looking at major events last week, bank regulators approved the Capital One acquisition of Discover. That $35 billion deal was announced in February 2024 and has been slowly—very slowly—winding its way through the regulatory review process, all the while facing resistance from some quarters (mostly from Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) and other consumer advocates who generally oppose large bank consolidation of any sort).
However, what we found particularly interesting about the approval announcement was a separate announcement by the FDIC and Federal Reserve that they fined Discover $150 million and ordered the company to pay $1.225 billion in restitution for misclassifying consumer credit cards as commercial. We have gotten questions about this from clients, mostly asking if this was a case of the "White Knight" – Capital One – being allowed to buy Discover to help clean up the regulatory mess. Yes, we see it that way, but we also see it as a break from previous regulatory merger deals where regulators did not want a White Knight situation because regulators have seen such efforts actually fail. Meaning that the acquiring company, in the massive project to merge operational and risk systems, actually ends up papering over the problem and not really getting to the root of the problem. All of which means, in our view, we are seeing something of a new approach to financial mergers and acquisition policy by the Trump team – and a likely throwing open of the doors to more financial institution mergers going forward.
Also, this past week, the OCC announced a major reorganization around bank supervision, merging its Midsize and Community Bank Supervision Office with its Large Bank Supervision functions and creating a new Bank Supervision and Examination office. All this even before Comptroller of the Currency nominee Jonathan Gould gets his final Senate confirmation vote, which will likely happen in the coming three weeks. Once Gould is in place, we will watch for a potential OCC merger with the FDIC under the guidance of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. Bessent has been holding meetings with Acting Comptroller Rodney Hood and FDIC Acting Chair Jonathan McKernan on how to streamline regulation and possibly merge.
The other big news last week was that Acting Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) Russ Vought (who is also the Director of the Office of Management and Budget) was laying off more than 1,400 staffers (out of a total of 1,700 staff). That effort was temporarily blocked by a federal judge who wants to review whether the layoffs would violate a preliminary injunction blocking the agency from shutting down.
Finally, last week saw the National Credit Union Administration (NCUA) slimmed down to one sitting board member – Chair Kyle Hauptman – after President Trump fired two Democrat board members, Todd Harper (who was chair during the Biden Administration) and Tanya Otsuka. Both Harper and Otsuka intend to challenge the firings in court, but for now, they are out of the building and will not be voting members.
Clients have asked how the NCUA board functions with only one board member. Interestingly, as Chair Hauptman pointed out in a memo to staff last week, there is precedent for this. During the George W. Bush Administration, then-Chair Dennis Dollar acted as the sole board member, voting on policy issues and administrative actions all by himself.
Below is what else we are watching in the Washington financial regulatory world this coming week:
U.S. Congressional Hearings
U.S. Senate
The Senate is in recess until April 28.
House of Representatives
· The House of Representatives is in recess until April 28.
Federal Department & Regulatory Agency Meetings & Events
Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks
· Tuesday, April 22, 9:00 a.m. – the G-20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors’ Meeting takes place at the IMF in Washington, D.C. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Federal Reserve Board Governor Jay Powell will be attending.
·
· Tuesday, April 22, 9:00 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson will give a speech entitled “Economic Mobility and the Dual Mandate” at the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Economic Mobility Summit, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.
· Tuesday, April 22, 6:00 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana D. Kugler will give a speech entitled “Transmission of Monetary Policy” at the Heller-Hurwicz Economics Institute 2025 Roundtable with Dr. Adriana Kugler, Minneapolis, Minnesota.
· Wednesday, April 23, 9:35 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller will give opening remarks at the Fed Listens event hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (Virtual).
U.S. Treasury Department
· Tuesday, April 22, 9:00 a.m. – The G-20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors’ Meeting takes place at the IMF in Washington, D.C. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Federal Reserve Board Governor Jay Powell will be attending.
· Wednesday, April 23, 10:00 a.m. – US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will give remarks and participate in a conversation at the Institute for International Finance conference (virtual).
Department of Commerce
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Department of Housing and Urban Development
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Securities and Exchange Commission
· Tuesday, April 22, 12:35 p.m. – The SEC will host its Incident Response Forum Masterclass 2025.
· Thursday, April 24, 2:00 p.m. – The SEC will host a Closed Meeting.
· Friday, April 25, 1:00 p.m. – The SEC will host its Crypto Task Force Roundtable - Know Your Custodian: Key Considerations for Crypto Custody.
Commodities Futures Trading Commission
· Thursday, April 24, 9:45 a.m. – CFTC Commissioner Kristin N. Johnson will deliver keynote remarks at the Africa Fintech Summit, Washington, D.C., 2025.
· Thursday, April 24, 10:20 a.m. – Acting CFTC Chair Caroline D. Pham will participate on a panel, Balancing Local and Global Priorities in Policymaking (II), at the IIF Future of Global Financial Policymaking Roundtable in Washington, D.C.
· Thursday, April 24, 1:00 p.m. – Acting Chairman Caroline D. Pham will discuss new policies and priorities at a Bloomberg roundtable in Washington, D.C.
· Thursday, April 24, 2:00 p.m. – CFTC Commissioner Kristin N. Johnson to participate in AI Evolution and the Future of Governance Roundtable at the Institute for International Finance (IIF) in Washington, D.C.
· Friday, April 25, 12:00 p.m. – CFTC Commissioner Summer K. Mersinger will participate on a panel, Clearing the Way to the Future: How Is Technology Changing Market Paradigms? at the FIA Law & Compliance Division Conference in Oxen Hill, Maryland.
· Friday, April 25, 12:00 p.m. – CFTC Commissioner Kristin N. Johnson to address “Clearing the Way to the Future: How Is Technology Changing Market Paradigms?” at the FIA L&C 2025 in Oxen Hill, Maryland.
Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Office of the Comptroller of the Currency
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
National Credit Union Administration
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
FINRA
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Federal Housing Finance Agency
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division
· Tuesday, April 22, 6:00 p.m. – FTC Chair Andrew Ferguson will be the keynote speaker at the IAPP Global Privacy Summit 2025 in Washington, D.C.
· Wednesday, April 23 – FTC Chair Andrew Ferguson will speak at the Semafor World Economy Summit 2025 in Washington, D.C.
Farm Credit Administration
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Farm Credit Insurance Corporation
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Small Business Administration
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
International Monetary Fund & World Bank
· Monday – Saturday, April 21 – 25 – The Spring Meetings of the World Bank and International Monetary Fund will be held in Washington, D.C. The full agenda can be seen HERE.
North American Securities Administrators Association
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Trade Associations & Think Tank Events
Trade Associations
· Monday, April 21, 3:00 p.m. – The Institute for International Finance co-hosts with the World Bank a Digital Trust & Quantum Readiness Roundtable in Washington, D.C.
· Tuesday, April 22, 2:00 p.m. – the Institute for International Finance hosts a Cyber Security Roundtable in Washington, D.C.
· Wednesday, April 23, 10:00 a.m. – US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will give remarks and participate in a conversation at the Institute for International Finance conference (virtual).
· Thursday, April 24, 9:00 a.m. – The Institute for International Finance will host its 2025 IIF Sustainable Finance Roundtable in Washington, D.C.
Think Tanks and Other Events
· Friday, April 25, 10:00 a.m. – European Central Bank Supervisory Board Chair Claudia Buch will speak at the Brookings Institution on “Safeguarding the Stability of the Global Banking System.”
The Global Week Ahead
The IMF-World Bank Spring Meetings Take Center Stage, Vice President Vance Visits India, Bilateral Trade Negotiations Continue in Washington, and the G7 and G20 Meet on the Sidelines of the IMF/World Bank meetings
April 20 - 27, 2025
A good portion of the world hopefully enjoyed a peaceful Easter holiday today, and many are taking the week for spring vacation. However, in Washington, Easter weekend was the quiet before the economic storm as the World Bank and International Monetary Fund (WB/IMF) are holding their annual Spring meetings. The nation’s capital will be filled with finance ministers and central bankers from around the world (good luck getting restaurant reservations and avoiding driving downtown – the traffic jams during WB/IMF weeks are epic).
But unlike most World Bank/IMF meetings, a good number of trade ministers will also be in Washington this week, seeking to work out bilateral trade deals with the US. We are aware of meetings between US officials and representatives of Thailand, India, and Malaysia, and suspect more meetings are being arranged as we write this note.
As tariff negotiations ramp up, we will be watching for the WB/IMF annual economic report on Tuesday. This report will likely help set the tone for the week and likely point to their expectation of significant economic disruption as a result of the Trump tariffs. Both the G7 and G20 will be meeting on the sidelines of the WB/IMF meetings, and tariffs will be the paramount issue of discussion.
Also this week, US Vice President J.D. Vance will visit India for four days starting Monday. Vance will meet with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Monday, and trade, mutual defense, and security issues will be on the agenda. Modi will then travel to Saudi Arabia on Tuesday for bilateral meetings with Saudi Arabia’s Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud to discuss both trade and a number of other issues of interest to India, including the US-Iran nuclear talks, the Ukraine peace talks, and relations with China.
Looking at the global economic radar screen, the WB/IMF meetings dominate the week. But there are several important economic reports worth watching. Global PMIs will be out on Wednesday, giving markets a slightly clearer sense of how tariffs might be disrupting markets.
In the US, markets are watching for the Beige Book release along with durable goods orders and housing market data. In Asia, aside from Japan’s CPI numbers, China will announce the 1-year and 5-year loan rates. In Europe, the ifo Survey in Germany and the consumer confidence reports for the Eurozone and the UK are out this week.
Below is what else we are watching around the world in the coming week:
Sunday, April 20, 2025
Global
· Today is Easter Sunday in the Western Christian world.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· NASA’s Lucy mission, a robotic spacecraft, is expected to pass the main belt asteroid 52246 Donaldjohanson on its way to the Trojan asteroids that share Jupiter’s orbit.
·
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· China Loan Prime Rate 1Y & 5Y (April)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Israel GDP Growth Annualized 3rd Est Q4
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Monday, April 21, 2025
Global
· Financial markets in Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy are closed for the Easter Monday holiday.
· The World Bank/IMF Spring meetings begin in Washington, D.C.
· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open briefing on the United Nations Integrated Office in Haiti (BINUH) followed by consultations.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir will begin his visit to the United States with stops in Miami, New York, and Washington, D.C.
· Thailand will send a trade delegation to Washington to discuss tariffs.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee is interviewed on CNBC.
· USA CB Leading Index (March)
· Colombia ISE Economic Activity (February)
· Costa Rica Balance of Trade (March)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· US Vice President JD Vance will begin a four-day visit to India, which will include talks with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Their discussions are likely to focus on a proposed bilateral trade pact and American "reciprocal" tariffs, among other issues of mutual interest. Accompanied by his wife Usha, the first Indian American and Hindu second lady of the United States, and their children, Vance will visit the tourist cities of Agra and Jaipur as well as the capital, New Delhi.
· The Annual Philippine-US military exercises (Balikatan 2025) begin in the Philippines.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Indonesia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)
· Pakistan Consumer Confidence (March)
· Kazakhstan Business Confidence Q1
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· In London, Gatwick airport operations staff continue their industrial action, likely to increase disruption for travelers returning from Easter breaks.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Turkey Central Government Debt (March)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· In Egypt, the Sham Ennesim festival is celebrated marking the start of spring.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Israel GDP Growth Annualized 3rd Est Q4/ M1 Money Supply (March)
· Lebanon Inflation Rate (March)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Egypt Current Account Q4
· Angola Wholesale Prices (February)
Tuesday, April 22, 2025
Global
· The IMF/World Economic presents its joint Economic Outlook report.
· IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings are being held in Washington, D.C.
· G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors will meet in Washington, D.C.
· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open briefing on Colombia, followed by consultations.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Chile's President Gabriel Boric will make a state visit to Brazil..
Economic Reports/Events –
· Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson will give speech entitled “Economic Mobility and the Dual Mandate” at the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Economic Mobility Summit, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.
· Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker participates in fireside chat on how economic mobility impacts regional economies and can promote local growth before the Economic Mobility Summit sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
· Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari participates in a moderated question-and-answer session before the U.S. Chamber of Commerce Global Summit.
· Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin participates in fireside chat, “Macro and Micro Economic Forces Shaping our Future" before the RVA Big Dipper Innovation Summit.
· Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana Kugler speaks on “Transmission of Monetary Policy" before the University of Minnesota Heller-Hurwicz Economics Institute (HHEI) Spring 2025 Roundtable.
· Canada PPI (March)/ Raw Materials Prices (March)
· USA Redbook (April/19)/ Fed Jefferson Speech/ / Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (April)/ Richmond Fed Services Revenues Index (April)/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index (April)/ Money Supply (March)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (April/18)/
· Argentina Consumer Confidence (April)/ Economic Activity (February)
· Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi begins a two-day visit to Saudi Arabia.
· In Australia, early voting begins in the country’s federal elections, which are held on May 3. Polls leading up to the race had pointed to a potential minority government, where neither party achieves the 76 seats needed to govern, but the incumbent center-left Labor Party, led by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, has gained momentum during the campaign, improving his chances of forming a government.
Economic Reports/Events –
· South Korea PPI (March)
· Taiwan Export Orders (March)/ Unemployment Rate (March)
· Hong Kong Unemployment Rate (March)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov meets with Uzbekistan President Mirziyoyev and Foreign Minister Saido in Tashkent.
Economic Reports/Events –
· European Central Bank Executive Board member Luis de Guindos will give remarks at the MIT/ICADE Finance Club in Madrid, Spain.
· Turkey Consumer Confidence (April)
· Euro Area ECB Survey of Monetary Analysts & Forecasters/ Government Budget & Debt to GDP 2024/ ECB Knot Speech/ Consumer Confidence Flash (April)/ ECB Guindos Speech
· Poland Corporate Sector Wages (March)/ Employment Growth (March)/ Industrial Production (March)/ PPI (March)
· Spain Balance of Trade (February)/ Consumer Confidence (March)
· Great Britain BoE Breeden Speech
· Slovenia Unemployment Rate (February)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Israel Imports/ Export/ Balance of Trade (March)/ Inflation Expectations (April)
· Kuwait Inflation Rate (March)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Kenyan President William Ruto will visit China through April 26.
Economic Reports/Events –
· South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (February)
Wednesday, April 23, 2025
Global
· The IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings are being held in Washington, D.C.
· G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors meet in Washington, D.C.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· The Institute of International Finance holds its Global Outlook Forum in Washington, D.C. alongside the IMF/World Bank meetings.
Economic Reports/Events –
· US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will give remarks and participate in a conversation at the Institute for International Finance conference (virtual).
· Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago president and chief executive Austan Goolsbee delivers opening remarks in a virtual presentation at the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s 2025 Economic Mobility Summit.
· Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller and Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President Alberto Musalem give opening remarks before a “Fed Listens" event hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
· Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Hammack speaks before the Money Marketeers of New York University.
· SA MBA Mortgage Market Index (April/18)/ S&P Global Services/ Composite/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (April)/ New Home Sales (March)/ EIA Crude Oil/ Gasoline Stocks Change (April/18)/ Fed Beige Book/ Building Permits (March)/ Building Permits (March)
· Mexico Retail Sales (February)
· Canada New Housing Price Index (March)
· Colombia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)
· Argentina Retail Sales (February)
· Paraguay Interest Rate Decision
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· In Singapore, the nine-day election campaign begins in advance of the May 3 election.
· The Shanghai Auto Show begins – the world’s biggest – and runs for ten days.
Economic Reports/Events –
· South Korea Consumer Confidence (April)
· New Zealand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)/ Credit Card Spending (March)
· Australia S&P Global Services/ Composite/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (April)
· Japan Jibun Bank Services/ Composite/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (April)/ Tertiary Industry Index (February)
· Malaysia Inflation Rate (March)
· Indonesia HSBC Services/ Composite/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (April)/ Loan Growth (March)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Deposit & Lending Facility Rate (April)
· Singapore Inflation Rate (March)
· Taiwan Industrial Production (March)/ Retail Sales (March)/ M2 Money Supply (March)
· Hong Kong Inflation Rate (March)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· The Russian-Iranian Commission on Trade and Economic Cooperation meets in Moscow.
· EU Defense Commissioner Andrius Kubilius will meet with South Korea's minister for the Defense Acquisition Program Administration, Seok Jong-gun, in Brussels, Belgium.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Bank of England chief economist and executive director for monetary analysis Huw Pill speaks at Leeds University Business School.
· European Central Bank Executive Board member Piero Cipollone will participate on a panel discussion entitled “Tokenization and the Financial System: Adapting to the New Landscape” during the IMF/WB Spring Meetings in Washington D.C.
· European Central Bank Board member Philip R. Lane will participate on a panel entitled “Central Bankers’ Dilemmas Amid Changing Global Liquidity conditions” at IIF Global Outlook Forum “Forging Growth in a Time of Transition” during the IMF Spring Meetings in Washington D.C.
· eat Britain Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks (March)/ S&P Global Services/ Composite/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (April)/ BoE Bailey Speech/ BoE Breeden Speech
· France HCOB Services/ Composite/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (April)
· Germany HCOB Services/ Composite/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (April)
· Euro Area HCOB Services/ Composite/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (April)/ Balance of Trade (February)/ Construction Output (February)/ ECB Lane Speech/ ECB Cipollone Speech
· Poland Retail Sales (March)/ M3 Money Supply (March)
· Slovenia Consumer Confidence (April)
· Russia Corporate Profits (February)/ Industrial Production (March)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Israel Unemployment Rate (March)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· French President Emmanuel Macron will visit Madagascar and partake in the fifth summit of the Indian Ocean Commission.
Economic Reports/Events –
· South Africa Inflation Rate (March)
Thursday, April 24, 2025
Global
· The IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings are being held in Washington, D.C.
· G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors are meeting in Washington, D.C.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· The Trump Administration is hoping to finalize a deal with Ukraine for access to critical minerals.
· Malaysian Trade Minister Zafrul meets US Trade Representative Jamison Greer in Washington.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari participates in a moderated question-and-answer session before the University of Minnesota College of Science and Engineering event, “Innovating the Future: Perspectives on Science, Engineering and the Economy."
· Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (April)
· Chile PPI (March)
· Mexico Mid-month Inflation Rate (April)
· Canada Average Weekly Earnings (February)
· USA Initial Jobless Claims (April/19)/ Existing Home Sales (March)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (April/18)/ Kansas Fed Composite & Manufacturing Index (April)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (April/24)/ Fed Balance Sheet (April/23)
· Paraguay PPI (March)
· El Salvador Balance of Trade (March)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· China marks the National Day of Space Flight, on the day in 1970 when the country launched its first man-made earth satellite, Dongfanghong-1.
Economic Reports/Events –
· South Korea Business Confidence (April)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1
· New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (April)
· Japan Foreign Bond Investment (April/19)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (April/19)
· Singapore URA Property Index Q1
· Australia RBA Bulletin
· Thailand New Car Sales (March)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will meet British Prime Minister Keir Starmer in London, United Kingdom, on the sidelines of the Energy Security Summit co-hosted by the United Kingdom and the International Energy Agency through April 25..
Economic Reports/Events –
· European Central Bank Board member Philip R. Lane will participate in a panel session at the Peterson Institute (PIIE) Webcast “Review of Monetary Policy Strategy by Central Banks”.
· European Central Bank Board Member Patrick Montagne will participate on a panel at the symposium “A Franco-German Tandem? Insights from History and Future Challenges for the Banking Systems in France and Germany” jointly organized by the Institute for Banking and Financial History (IBF), the House of Finance at Goethe University Frankfurt and in cooperation with Deutsch-Französische Gesellschaft Frankfurt am Main at the invitation of ODDO BHF in Frankfurt, Germany.
· European Central Bank Board member Sharon Donnery will give introductory remarks and participate on a panel discussion at the Institute of International Finance (IIF) roundtable, "The Future of Financial Global Policymaking" in Washington D.C., United States of America.
· European Union New Car Registrations (March)
· France Consumer Confidence (April)
· Spain PPI (March)
· Turkey Business Confidence (April)/ Capacity Utilization (April)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April/18)
· Germany Ifo Business Climate (April)/ Ifo Current Conditions (April)/ Ifo Expectations (April)
· Poland Unemployment Rate (March)
· Slovenia Business Confidence (April)
· Ireland Wholesale Prices (March)
· Great Britain CBI Business Optimism Index Q2/ CBI Industrial Trends Orders (April)
· Euro Area ECB Lane Speech/ ECB Montagner Speech/ ECB Donnery Speech
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Saudi Arabia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)
· Kuwait M2 Money Supply (March)/ Private Bank Lending (April)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky visits South Africa..
Economic Reports/Events –
· South Africa PPI (March)
Friday, April 25, 2025
Global
· IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings are being held in Washington, D.C.
· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations (Syria).
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Brazil IPCA mid-month CPI (April)
· Mexico Economic Activity (February)
· Canada Retail Sales (February)/ Manufacturing Sales MoM Prel (March)/ Budget Balance (February)
· USA Michigan Consumer Sentiment (April)/ Michigan Consumer Expectations (April)/ Michigan Current Conditions (April)/ Michigan Inflation Expectations (April)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (April/25)
· Brazil Federal Tax Revenues (January)/ Federal Tax Revenues (February)/ Federal Tax Revenues (March)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Today is Anzac Day in Australia and New Zealand, honoring the anniversary of the Gallipoli landings in 1915 during World War I.
· The Marshall Islands holds a constitutional referendum.
· Today is Military Foundation day in North Korea.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Japan Tokyo CPI (April)/ Coincident Index (February)/ Leading Economic Index (February)
· Indonesia M2 Money Supply (March)
· Thailand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)
· Malaysia Coincident Index (February)/ Leading Index (February)
· Singapore Industrial Production (March)
· Hong Kong Business Confidence Q2
· India Bank Loan Growth (April/11)/ Deposit Growth (April/11)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April/18)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· European Central Bank Board member Claudia Buch will give introductory remarks and participate on a panel discussion at the Brookings Institution in Washington D.C.
· Great Britain Gfk Consumer Confidence (April)/ Car Production (March)/ Retail Sales (March)
· Hungary Unemployment Rate (March)
· France Business Confidence (April)/ Business Climate Indicator (April)
· Slovenia Tourist Arrivals (March)
· Russia Interest Rate Decision/ CBR Press Conference
· Turkey MPC Meeting Summary
· Euro Area ECB Buch Speech/ ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations (March)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Saturday, April 26, 2025
Global
· Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Sunday, April 27, 2025
Global
· Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Venezuela will hold parliamentary elections.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Canada General Elections
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba will visit Vietnam and the Philippines through April 30.
Economic Reports/Events –
· China Industrial Profits (YTD) (March)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Recommended Weekend Reads
Why We Should Ignore Bilateral Trade Balances, Hutchison’s Sprawling Portfolio of Ports in Latin America, Seven Reasons Putin Doesn’t Want to End the Ukraine War, and Putting Economics Back into Geoeconomics
April 17 - 20, 2025
Spring is here, and it’s Easter Weekend. Here are our latest recommended reads. We hope you have a wonderful Easter and a relaxing weekend. And please let us know if you or someone you know wants to be added to our distribution list.
More on the Trade War
Bilateral Trade Balances: Ignore Them Center for Strategic and International Studies
The Trump administration appears to have given up its fantastical effort to fully remake the international trade order. Although 10% tariffs versus almost everyone and 145% tariffs against China are still in place, the administration has for the time put aside the revolutionary notion of substituting reciprocal tariffs negotiated country-by-country with basing trade in commonly applied tariffs and making modest adjustments, lower or higher, in exceptional circumstances. That said, the administration is still absolutely fixated on bilateral trade deficits – that they inherently represent a deadweight loss (despite U.S. companies and households receiving goods and services in return) and that those countries with surpluses are by definition scofflaws who are guilty of stealing American manufacturing capabilities, jobs, and wealth.
A Stab at China’s View of the “Trade War” Derek Scissors/American Enterprise Institute
Rather than pretend the latest Trump administration spin on its latest walk-back is worth the time, it may be useful to assess the side that loves stability. China cares less about tariffs than it may seem. The key reason: Beijing’s prime goal isn’t prosperity, but leverage. Many experts on trade and China have recently emerged. Some were previously experts on inflation, Ukraine, and Covid. The biggest error made by newcomers is believing Xi Jinping is interested in what foreign commentators think he should be interested in—economic growth, the welfare of households, stock prices, and supposedly high American tariffs. None are especially important for Xi and, therefore, for the PRC’s policy. Economic growth is nice, it’s not close to paramount. China no longer needs fast growth to create jobs, with the labor force contracting since at least 2017. On official figures, growth is tenuously connected to job creation. This is another reason not to care much: Results will be whatever Beijing wants. China has offered decades of dubious economic statistics, eagerly repeated by many. It just happened again, with Q1 data not making arithmetic sense.
Navigating tariffs with a geopolitical nerve center McKinsey & Company
Tariffs and trade controls are expanding rapidly around the world. Macroeconomic uncertainty is growing. Second-order effects of government actions are multiplying. The first global economic shock since the COVID-19 pandemic has arrived. While geopolitical tensions have been rising for several years, the recent wave of trade controls and reciprocal tariffs has come on quickly and intensely. Not since the 1930s has the world seen this level of tariff activity.
The Americas
Surveying Hutchison’s Portfolio in Latin America: Strategic Vulnerability or Business as Usual? Center for Strategic and International Studies
China’s global network of ports has been the subject of growing anxiety among U.S. policymakers and defense analysts. Control over ports confers a host of benefits ranging from intelligence collection opportunities to access to favorable shipping lanes to even a limited power projection capability for the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN). At the center of this drama is Hong Kong-based CK Hutchison, a massive conglomerate that, through its subsidiary Hutchison Port Holdings, operates the ports of Balboa and Cristobal on the Pacific and Atlantic sides of the canal, respectively. On March 4, CK Hutchison made headlines when it announced a deal with U.S. private equity firm BlackRock to buy out its port holdings outside of mainland China and Hong Kong. If executed, the deal would transfer 43 different ports across 23 countries from Hutchison to BlackRock’s control. In the Western Hemisphere alone, Hutchison currently operates seven container terminals: two in Panama, four in Mexico, and one in the Bahamas. Several of these rank among the busiest ports in the Americas and are invaluable to maritime commerce in the region.
Milei’s bold move: making Argentina’s economy normal The Economist
“Instead of talking about growth at Chinese rates, the world will soon be talking about growth at Argentine rates,” crowed Javier Milei on late-night television on April 11th. His economy minister had just outlined a $20 billion IMF program, a reduction in capital controls, and a shift to a more flexible exchange rate. He slashed spending immediately, pulling inflation sharply down. A deep recession is now giving way to strong growth. The rate of poverty, which rose to 53% of all Argentines in early 2024, has now fallen back to 38%, lower than it was when Mr. Milei took office. Now he is tackling the weakness in his reform program: capital controls and the overvalued peso. He has never been closer to transforming Argentina into a normal economy. But global economic chaos endangers his reforms, and politics could still trip him up.
Why Russia Might Reject A Peace Deal With Ukraine
Seven Reasons Putin Doesn’t Want to End the War in Ukraine Politico
Noted Russian scholar Leon Aaron lays out seven reasons Russian President Vladimir Putin does not want to end the War on Ukraine: 1) the war provides a rationale for Putin’s dictatorship, 2) Putin likes the trappings of militarism, 3) Russia’s economy now is dependent on the war, 4), Ending wartime bonuses and other perks could cause social unrest, 5) Change is destabilizing in authoritarian regimes, 6), Putin is an opportunist and a risk taker – every new concession prompts more ultimatums by Putin, and 7) Putin needs victory, not peace.
Russia’s Increasingly Bellicose Elite Center for European Policy Analysis
The economic, military, and cultural elites of wartime Russia are undergoing a transformation, and their influence on the country’s leadership does not augur a quick end to the fighting. More people with an interest in continuing the war against Ukraine are joining Vladimir Putin’s entourage, making the Kremlin even less open to peace.
Understanding the New and Old Washington
How to Make Friends and Influence POTUS MIT Sloan Management Review
The rules of corporate influence in Washington are changing dramatically. In President Donald Trump’s second term, power has shifted from Congress to the White House, turning lobbying into a personalized game of presidential access. At the same time, the use of AI tools is transforming lobbying efforts and posing ethical dilemmas. As the lobbying landscape shifts, executives must deal with the current situation with open eyes and a carefully considered strategy.
A Historical and Geographical Look at Federal Employment Levels Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
It’s easy to interpret the increase in the budget deficit as meaning the government itself has gotten larger. In terms of its budget and subsequent debt, that is certainly true. But in terms of the number of government employees, this isn’t quite as obvious. In the first figure, we plot federal employment from 1939 through 2024. Absent the immediate aftermath of World War II and the Korean War, there is a consistent rise in federal employment extending through the 1980s. At this point, federal employment began to decline but has largely been flat throughout much of the 2000s. Exceptions include the decennial census hirings, which lead to short-lived spikes, and a rise in federal employment starting in late 2022. Still, as a percentage of the U.S. labor force, the share of federal workers stood at around 1.8% at the end of 2024 versus 2.5% at the end of 1989.
Geoeconomics
Putting Economics Back into Geoeconomics Christopher Clayton/Mateio Maggiori/Jesse Schreger – National Bureau of Economic Research
Geoeconomics is the use of a country’s economic strength to exert influence on foreign entities to achieve geopolitical or economic goals. We discuss how concepts of power in the political science and economics literature can be used to guide research on geoeconomics. Economic threats as a form of coercion have seen a recent resurgence. We show how different types of threats can be modeled using simple tools and discuss what channels their potential effectiveness is based on. We discuss important open questions for the future literature to pursue.
Which Generation Spends More? U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
As it turns out, spending does differ along generational lines. In 2023 (the latest available data), those born between 1965 and 1980 spent the most, with annual household expenditures averaging $95,692. This generation was between the ages of 43 and 58 in that year and perhaps in one of the highest-earning periods of their working lives. By contrast, the lowest average expenditure was $49,206, spent by those born in in 1945 or earlier and likely retired. Average annual expenditures for all households in 2023 were $77,280, a 5.9-percent increase from 2022. During the same period, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers rose 4.1 percent, and average income before taxes increased 8.3 percent. These data are from the Consumer Expenditure Surveys program. For more information, please see the latest news release at “Consumer Expenditures – 2023,” as well as Consumer Expenditures data tables. Consumer expenditure data are averages for all consumer units (households). Consumer units consist of families, single persons living alone or sharing a household with others but who are financially independent, or two or more persons living together who share major expenses.
U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead
The Senate Confirms Atkins as SEC Chair, Fed Governor Bowman Breezes Through Her Supervisory Confirmation Hearing, and Washington Goes Quiet in Advance of Easter
April 14 - 18, 2025
The Masters golf tournament was this weekend (what a thrilling ending!), and Congress has fled Washington for a two-week recess — all the signs that Easter is almost here and spring has truly arrived.
After an action-packed 100 days in session, Congress left town Friday for a two-week Easter recess. They will be back the week of April 28th. Looking at the regulatory agenda and events for the coming week, there is not much happening. Acting Comptroller of the Currency Rodney Hood will be speaking at the Exchequer Club this week and there are several Federal Reserve Governors speaking this week, most notably Fed Chair Jay Powell speaking at the Economic Club of Chicago on Wednesday.
Looking at what happened last week, the Senate confirmed Paul Atkins to be Chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission. Jonathan Gould, the Comptroller of the Currency nominee, almost got his Senate vote but an elongated vote on the new Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Dan “Razin” Caine, bumped Gould’s nomination until the last week of April.
Also last week, Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman had her confirmation hearing before the Senate Banking Committee. Despite tough questions from Democrats on her views of regulation overall, Bowman breezed through her hearing, impressing members with her knowledge and confidence. Of note, Bowman told the committee she intends to bring a cost-benefit analysis to new banking rules and that regulators should be aligned in their goals for regulating the financial system.
Meanwhile, DOGE arrived at the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation to review the agency's budget and efficiency. Reports suggest the FDIC is considering reducing staff by as much as 20%.
Finally, we note that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent spoke of his intention to bring sweeping changes to bank oversight. He made clear he supports smaller capital requirements and a lighter-touch regulatory approach.
Below is what else we are watching in the Washington financial regulatory world this coming week:
U.S. Congressional Hearings
U.S. Senate
The Senate is in recess until April 28.
House of Representatives
The House of Representatives is in recess until April 28.
Federal Department/Regulatory Agency Meetings & Events
Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks
Monday, April 14, 1:00 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech on the economic outlook at the Economic Outlook with Chris Waller Event, hosted by the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) Society of St. Louis, St. Louis, Missouri.
Tuesday, April 15, 7:10 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook gives remarks at the acceptance of the 2025 Distinguished Alumna Award at the Cal Alumni Club of Washington, D.C. Annual Reception, Washington, D.C.
Wednesday, April 16, 1:30 p.m. (Chicago) – Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome H. Powell gives a speech on the economic outlook at the Economic Club of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois.
Thursday, April 17, 11:45 a.m.—Federal Reserve Board Michael S. Barr will give a speech on Cybersecurity in the Banking System at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs 2025 State-of-the-Field Conference on Cyber Risk to Financial Stability, New York, New York.
Friday, April 18, 8:00 a.m. – Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary C. Daly will participate in a conversation at the University of California Berkeley Fisher Center for Real Estate & Urban Economics.
U.S. Treasury Department
There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Department of Commerce
There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Department of Housing and Urban Development
There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Securities and Exchange Commission
There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Commodities Futures Trading Commission
There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation
There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Office of the Comptroller of the Currency
Wednesday, April 16, 12:00 p.m. – Acting Comptroller of the Currency Rodney Hood will speak at the Exchequer Club in Washington, D.C.
The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau
There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
National Credit Union Administration
Thursday, April 17, 10:00 a.m. – The NCUA Board will meet. The agenda of issues being considered includes a board briefing on the Interagency Rule, Temporary Exceptions to Financial Institution Reform, Recovery, and Enforcement Act Appraisal Requirements in Areas Affected by California Wildfires and Straight-Line Winds. They will also be briefed on the NCUA’s Voluntary Separation Programs.
FINRA
There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Federal Housing Finance Agency
There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division
There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Farm Credit Administration
There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Farm Credit Insurance Corporation
There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Small Business Administration
There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
International Monetary Fund & World Bank
There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
North American Securities Administrators Association
There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Trade Associations & Think Tank Events
Trade Associations
Monday & Tuesday April 14 – 15 – The American Bankers Association and the National Bankers Association hold the MDI Partnership Summit in Washington, D.C.
Tuesday, April 15, 1:00 p.m. – SIFMA will offer a member briefing updating them on policy issues of interest and concern in Washington.
Think Tanks and Other Events
There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
The Global Week Ahead
Trump’s Tariffs Continue to Dominate Markets and Geopolitics, Chinese President Xi Travels Embarks on Asia Tour, The ECB Decides on Interest Rates, and Fed Chair Powell Talks Gives Speech on the Economic Outlook
April 13 - 20, 2025
It was another wild week for global markets in the wake of President Trump’s global tariff plan after he called a 90-day time-out on their implementation while raising tariffs on China to 145%. While this coming week would normally be a quiet week for markets in advance of the Easter holiday, everyone is bracing for another wild week of high-level bilateral meetings and likely new announcements.
Drilling into the week ahead, we are going to be watching the meeting between Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and President Trump on Thursday to discuss prospects for a trade deal with the EU. Additionally, we note there are unconfirmed reports US Treasury Scott Bessent may meet with UK Finance Minister Rachel Reeves this week, too, to discuss a possible US-UK trade deal. Bessent is scheduled to travel to Argentina on Monday to meet with President Javier Milei as Argentia is likely to sign a new deal with the IMF on financing assistance, further boosting Milei’s economic reform policies.
While all this going on, Chinese President Xi Jinping will travel to Vietnam, Malaysia, and Cambodia for his first foreign visits of the year. Trade relations are expected to be the primary point of discussion in the wake of the Trump tariffs – especially on Vietnam and Cambodia which got hit with tariffs of 46% and 49% respectively.
Looking at the global economic radar screen for the coming week, it will be a relatively light economic reporting week. Markets, however, will be most focused on central bank decisions coming from the European Central Bank and the Bank of Canada.
In the US, we will see the release of Q1 GDP, retail sales figures, industrial production for March and jobless claims on Friday. But perhaps the most keenly watched economic data point this week will be Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell’s speech at the Economic Club of Chicago on Wednesday as well as speech by a number of regional Federal Reserve Presidents.
In Asia, Japan releases its March CPI on Friday while China’s Q1 GDP as well as March trade balance figures for March are out Monday.
In Europe, the UK labor market indicators are out Tuesday and March CPI is out on Wednesday. Germany sees the ZEW Survey for April out on Tuesday.
Below is what else we are watching around the world in the coming week:
Sunday, April 13, 2025
Global
· Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Ecuador holds its 2nd round of presidential elections.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Beijing hosts the world’s first half marathon featuring both human and humanoid robot runners at the Chinese capital’s artificial intelligence hub.
Economic Reports/Events –
· China New Yuan Loans (March)/ M2 Money Supply (March)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (March)/ Total Social Financing (March)
· Indonesia Motorbike Sales (March)
· Pakistan Consumer Confidence (March)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· EU Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic will travel to Washington to hold new talks aimed at resolving EU-U.S. trade tensions.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· India will launch joint military exercises with 10 African states located along the continent's eastern coast off the coast of Tanzania.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Monday, April 14, 2025
Global
· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the United Nations Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO). In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a TCC meeting on the United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS).
· OPEC releases its monthly Oil Market Report.
· There will be a BRICS Agriculture Working Group meeting in Brasilia, Brazil through April 15.
· There will be a BRICs Meeting of Senior Energy Officials (virtual) through April 15.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· President Donald Trump hosts Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele at the White House.
· U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will meet with Argentina's President Javier Milei and local businesspeople in Buenos Aires, Argentina.
· The U.S. Federal Trade Commission begins opening arguments in the trial seeking to unwind Meta’s purchase of Instagram.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech on the economic outlook at the Economic Outlook with Chris Waller Event, hosted by the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) Society of St. Louis, St. Louis, Missouri.
· Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin speaks on "Driving Through the Economic Fog" before the Greater Greer Chamber of Commerce.
· Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic speaks on monetary policy in a moderated conversation hosted by Emory University.
· Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker will speak the Villanova Univeristy School of Business.
· Canada New Motor Vehicle Sales (February)/ Wholesale Sales (February)
· USA Consumer Inflation Expectations (March)
· Paraguay Consumer Confidence (March)
· Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Chinese President Xi kicks begins a tour to Vietnam, Malaysia and Cambodia that ends on Friday. The trip comes at a critical time for both China and Southeast Asia, with Vietnam and Cambodia among the countries hit hardest by the tariffs Trump announced on April 2. Malaysia, meanwhile, is this year's ASEAN chair, leading the bloc's response to Washington's measures.
Economic Reports/Events –
· New Zealand Composite & Services NZ PCI (March)/ Electronic Retail Card Spending (March)/ Visitor Arrivals (February)
· Singapore Central Bank interest rate decision/GDP Growth Rate Q1
· China Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)
· Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)/ Car Sales (March)
· Japan Capacity Utilization (February)/ Industrial Production (February)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· The EU Foreign Affairs Council meets in Luxembourg. Ministers are expected to discuss the situation in Ukraine, Syria, Gaza, and Iran. They will also talk about EU-Africa relations, the Western Balkans and how to engage further in the Balkans.
· There will be an information meeting of EU Social Affairs Ministers through April 15 in Warsaw, Poland.
· The 1st EU-Palestine High-Level Political Dialogue in Luxembourg. The gathering, led by the High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Kaja Kallas, and the Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Palestinian Authority, Mohammad Mustafa. The Commission will be represented by Commissioner for the Mediterranean, Dubravka Šuica and Commissioner for Equality, Preparedness and Crisis Management Hadja Lahbib. This the first ever meeting of EU and Palestinian leaders at this level and they are expected to discuss the situation in Gaza, the unfolding situation in the West Bank, and prospects for a two-state solution.
· The Fourth Accession Conference with Albania will be held in Luxembourg. The meeting will serve to open negotiations with Albania on Cluster 2 ‘Internal market’, including Chapters 1 (free movement of goods), 2 (freedom of movement of workers), 3 (right of establishment and freedom to provide services), 4 (free movement of capital), 6 (company law), 7 (intellectual property law), 8 (competition policy), 9 (financial services) and 28 (consumer and health protection).
· Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov will take part in the Third Meeting of National Coordinators of the Group of Friends in Defense of the United Nations Charter” in Moscow.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Hungary Construction Output (February)
· Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (March)
· Turkey Current Account (February)/ Auto Production (March)/ Auto Sales (March)
· Ukraine Balance of Trade (February)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Israel Inflation Rate (March)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Egypt Current Account Q4
· South Africa SACCI Business Confidence (February & March)
· Angola Wholesale Prices (February)
Tuesday, April 15, 2025
Global
· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the Middle East (Yemen).
· There will be a BRICS Climate Finance Meeting (virtual).
· There will be a BRICS meeting on the global re-insurance landscape (virtual) through April 16.
· The International Energy Agency (IEA) Monthly Oil Market Report is published.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· In Peru, former president Ollanta Humala and his wife, Nadine Heredia, accused of money laundering, set to hear their sentence.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook gives remarks at the acceptance of the 2025 Distinguished Alumna Award at the Cal Alumni Club of Washington, D.C. Annual Reception, Washington, D.C.
· Canada Housing Starts (March)/ Inflation Rate (March)/ CPI Median (March)/ CPI Trimmed-Mean (March)/ Manufacturing Sales (February)
· USA NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (April)/ Import & Export Prices (March)/ Redbook (April/12)/ Fed Barkin Speech/ NOPA Crush Report/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (April/11)
· Colombia Industrial Production (February)/ Retail Sales (February)
· El Salvador Inflation Rate (March)
· Peru GDP Growth Rate (February)/ Unemployment Rate (March)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· In North Korea, the country celebrates the Day of the Sun, marking the birthday of the country’s first leader Kim Il Sung.
Economic Reports/Events –
· New Zealand Food Inflation (March)/ Global Dairy Trade Price Index (April/15)
· Indonesia Consumer Confidence (March)/ Tourist Arrivals (January)/ Tourist Arrivals (February)
· India WPI Food Index/ Fuel/ Inflation/ Manufacturing (March)/ Inflation Rate (March)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)
· Philippines Consumer Confidence Q1/ Cash Remittances (February)
· Kazakhstan Industrial Production (March)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· The European Central Bank President will host an informal dinner and exchange of views of the Council with the President of the European Council António Costa in Frankfurt.
· Great Britain BRC Retail Sales Monitor (March)/ Unemployment Rate (February)/ Employment Change (February)/ HMRC Payrolls Change (March)/ Claimant Count Change (March)
· Germany Wholesale Prices (March)/ ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (April)/ ZEW Current Conditions (April)
· Romania Industrial Production (February)
· France Inflation Rate (March)/ IEA Oil Market Report
· Slovakia Inflation Rate (March)
· Poland Inflation Rate (March)
· Euro Area Industrial Production (February) / ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (April)
· Ireland Balance of Trade (February)
· Serbia Building Permits (February)
· Turkey Budget Balance (March)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Bahrain hosts the Smart Cities Summit through April 16.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (March)/ Wholesale Prices (March)
· Jordan Inflation Rate (March)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· South Africa Gold Production (February)/ Mining Production (February)/ SARB Monetary Policy Review
· Angola Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)/ M3 Money Supply (March)
· Nigeria Food Inflation (March)/ Inflation Rate (March)
Wednesday, April 16, 2025
Global
· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS). In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultation, on the Great Lakes region.
· the World Trade Organization publishes its annual Global Trade Outlook and Statistics, analyzing recent global trade developments up to the fourth quarter of 2024 and forecasting GDP in 2025
· There will be a BRICS Disaster Management Working Group meeting through April 17 in Brasilia, Brazil.
· There will be a meeting of BRICS Transport Working Group in Brasilia, Brazil through April 17.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome H. Powell gives a speech on the economic outlook at the Economic Club of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois.
· Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Hammack speaks on "Fed 101" and participates in a moderated question-and-answer session before event, "Columbus Metropolitan Club Weekly Forum: Insights from Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack"
· Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank President Jeffrey Schmid speaks on the economy and community banking with Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Lorie Logan before a Global Perspectives event hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and the Dallas Citizens Council.
· USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (April/11)/ MBA Purchase Index (April/11)/ MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (April/11)/ Retail Sales (March)/ Capacity Utilization (March)/ Industrial Production (March)/ Manufacturing Production (March)/ Business Inventories (February)/ NAHB Housing Market Index (April)/ Retail Inventories Ex Autos (February)/ EIA Crude Oil/ Gasoline Stocks Change (April/ Net Long-term TIC Flows (February)/ Foreign Bond Investment (February)/ Overall Net Capital Flows (February)
· Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision & Monetary Policy Report & Press Conference
· Colombia Consumer Confidence (March)
· Argentina Balance of Trade (March)/ Leading Indicator (March)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· China’s Defense Minister Dong Jun will travel to Hanoi for meetings with Vietnam’s General Phan Van Giang. Together, they will watch the 38th joint naval patrol in the Gulf of Tonkin.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Bank of Korea Interest Rate Decision/South Korea Export & Import Prices (March)
· New Zealand Import/ Export/ Balance of Trade (March)
· Japan Reuters Tankan Index (April)/ Machinery Orders (February)
· Australia Westpac Leading Index (March)
· China House Price Index (March)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Industrial Production (March)/ Retail Sales (March)/ Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) (March)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Industrial Capacity Utilization Q1/ Unemployment Rate (March)
· Indonesia Retail Sales (February)
· India M3 Money Supply (April/04)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· There will be an informal meeting of EU gender equality ministers in Warsaw, Poland.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Great Britain Inflation Rate (March)/ Retail Price Index (March)
· Slovakia Inflation Rate (March)
· Euro Area Current Account (February)/ Core Inflation Rate (March)/ CPI (March)/ Inflation Rate (March)
· Italy Inflation Rate (March)/ Current Account (February)
· Ireland Residential Property Prices (February)
· Serbia Current Account (February)
· Poland Core Inflation Rate (March)
· Belarus Industrial Production (March)
· Russia PPI (March)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Oman Inflation Rate (March)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· South Africa Retail Sales (February)
Thursday, April 17, 2025
Global
· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) and Libya sanctions.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· President Trump will meet with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni at the White House. They are expected to discuss Trump’s tariff regime toward the EU.
· Japan and the United States will hold their first round of high-level negotiations on U.S. tariffs in Washington.
· U.S. fees on Chinese-built and Chinese-operated ships will go into effect, although the extent of the fees is unclear given recent reconsideration in Washington.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Federal Reserve Board Michael S. Barr will give a speech on Cybersecurity in the Banking System at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs 2025 State-of-the-Field Conference on Cyber Risk to Financial Stability, New York, New York.
· Canada CFIB Business Barometer (April)/ Foreign Securities Purchases (February)
· USA Housing Starts (March)/ Initial Jobless Claims (April/12)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (April/05)/ Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (April)/ Philly Fed CAPEX Index (April)/ Philly Fed Business Conditions (April)/ Philly Fed Employment (April)/ Philly Fed New Orders (April)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (April/11)/15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (April/17)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (April/18)/ Fed Balance Sheet (April/16)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board Junko Nakagawa gives a speech to local business leaders in Gunma, Japan.
· New Zealand Inflation Rate Q1
· Japan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)/ Foreign Bond Investment (April/12)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (April/12)/ BoJ Nakagawa Speech
· Singapore Non-Oil Exports (March)/ Balance of Trade (March)
· South Korea Interest Rate Decision
· Australia Employment Change (March)/ Unemployment Rate (March)/ Participation Rate (March)
· Kazakhstan Business Confidence Q1
· Sri Lanka Manufacturing PMI (March)/ Services PMI (March)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· European Central Bank Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference
· Germany PPI (March)
· Switzerland Balance of Trade (March)
· Hungary Gross Wage (February)
· Greece Current Account (February)
· Turkey TCMB Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Borrowing & Lending Rate (April)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April/11)
· Ukraine Interest Rate Decision
· Euro Area Deposit Facility Rate/ / Marginal Lending Rate
· Spain Consumer Confidence (March)
· Belarus GDP (March)
· Russia GDP Growth Rate Q4
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Today is Syria Independence Day, marking the day in 1946 when the country gained its independence from France.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· South Africa Building Permits (February)
· Egypt Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Lending Rate
· Ghana PPI (March)
Friday, April 18, 2025
Global
· Today is Good Friday. Most financial markets in Europe and the Americas are closed.
· The United Nations is closed in observation of Good Friday.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· US Vice President J.D. Vance visits Italy and will meet with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni (a day after she meets with President Trump in Washington). Vance will also visit the Vatican for Good Friday ahead of Easter Sunday.
· Iran-US nuclear talks to resume (to be confirmed) in Oman.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary C. Daly will participate in a conversation at the University of California Berkeley Fisher Center for Real Estate & Urban Economics.
· Argentina Consumer Confidence (April)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Japan Inflation Rate (March)
· Malaysia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1
· India Foreign Exchange Reserves (April/11)/ Passenger Vehicles Sales (March)
· China FDI (YTD) (March)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Serbia’s new government takes office after mass protests forced the previous government to resign.
· In the UK a four-day strike begins by members of the union Unite over pay, pensions and conditions for 100 Red Handling staff, including baggage handlers and flight dispatchers, at Gatwick airport.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Italy Balance of Trade (February)/ Construction Output (February)
· Slovenia PPI (March)
· Slovakia Current Account (February)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Israel M1 Money Supply (March)/ Manufacturing PMI (March)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Saturday, April 19, 2025
Global
· Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· In the US, thousands of demonstrators are expected to gather in Washington and other US cities to protest against President Donald Trump and his policies.
· Today is the 250th anniversary of the start of the American Revolution (the Battles of Lexington and Concord).
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Sunday, April 20, 2025
Global
· Today is Easter Sunday in the Western Christan world.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· NASA’s Lucy mission, a robotic spacecraft, is expected to pass the main belt asteroid 52246 Donaldjohanson on its way to the Trojan asteroids that share Jupiter’s orbit.
·
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· China Loan Prime Rate 1Y & 5Y (April)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Israel GDP Growth Annualized 3rd Est Q4
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Subscribe to our newsletter.
Sign up with your email address to receive news and updates.