Recommended Weekend Reads

February 23 - 25, 2024

Here are our recommended reads from reports and articles we read in the last week. We hope you find these useful and that you have a relaxing weekend.   And let us know if you or someone you know wants to be added to our distribution list.  Or sign-up for our Substack “Perspectives” to get our latest work:

China

• “Tracking China’s Control of Overseas Ports”  Council on Foreign Relations Interactive Report

  This interactive map tracks China’s growing maritime influence through investments in strategic overseas ports. Users can plot the location of each port and view satellite images alongside detailed information on the share of Chinese ownership, the total amount of Chinese investment, and the port’s suitability for use by the Chinese military. China operates or has ownership in at least one port in every continent except Antarctica. Of the 101 projects, 92 are active, whereas the remaining 9 port projects have become inactive due to cancellation or suspension by the end of September 2023. Reasons for cancellation or suspension include environmental concerns, souring of political relations, financial problems, and security issues raised domestically and internationally. Suspended projects, such as China’s construction of the Khalifa Port in the United Arab Emirates, could resume construction.

Latin America

• “Exporting Autocracy: China’s Role in Democratic Backsliding in Latin American and the Caribbean”  Center for Strategic and International Studies

  This report seeks to more fully enumerate the nature of China’s impact on democracy in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). It posits two independent but correlated mechanisms through which China contributes to democratic backsliding. First, the PRC propagates its model of authoritarian governance through its soft power engagements in media, education, and people-to-people diplomacy, as well as through its security assistance, which often features tools enabling mass surveillance and the curtailment of civil and political rights. Second, China protects regimes undergoing democratic backsliding by providing economic and diplomatic cover even as these governments become increasingly isolated from the rest of the international system, in effect extending these governments beyond their natural lifespan. Having recognized the specific risk vectors China’s engagement poses in LAC, the report seeks to articulate the beginnings of a democracy-first grand strategy for the United States to pursue. Such a strategy should proceed along the lines of the “insulate, curtail, compete” framework outlined in a previous CSIS report. 
  

  “Challenges to Sheinbaum’s Fiscal Policy”   Wilson Center’s Mexico Institute

  Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo leads the race for the Mexican presidency, yet the complex political and fiscal legacy of her predecessor, Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO), represents both an advantage and a burden to her campaign. While she aims for the continuity of her mentor’s key policies in education, energy, and economic development, Mexico’s current fiscal landscape leaves doubts on how her programs might be funded, requiring careful consideration and strategic policymaking.

Economics

• “Financial Markets’ Perceptions of the FOMC’s Data-Dependent Monetary Policy”  Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

  Abstract: Over the past ten years, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has repeatedly emphasized that future policy is data-dependent. In this Economic Commentary, we investigate how financial markets expected future interest rates to change with the release of new data on inflation and labor market conditions. We find that the surprises in economic indicators have a stronger effect on the 2-year Treasury yield than on the expected federal funds rate to be set in the next FOMC meeting. This implies that markets understand that under the data-dependent approach, policy decisions do not heavily rely on the most recent data or short-run fluctuations but, rather, rely more on the persistent trend of the economy. In addition, we observe that expected future interest rates have become more sensitive to surprises in inflation after 2022, suggesting that the FOMC’s determination to reduce inflation has been well-understood by the markets.
  

• “Trade War and Peace: U.S. – China Trade and Tariff Risk from 2015 – 2050”  National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper

  Abstract: We use the dynamics of U.S. imports across goods in the period around the U.S.-China trade war with a model of exporter dynamics to estimate the dynamic path of the probability of transiting between Normal Trade Relations and a trade war state. We find (i) there was no increase in the likelihood of a trade war before 2018; (ii) the trade war was initially expected to end quickly, but its expected duration grew substantially after 2020; and (iii) the trade war reduced the likelihood that China would face Non-Normal Trade Relations tariffs in the future. Our findings imply that the expected mean future U.S. tariff on China rose more under President Biden than under President Trump. We also show that the trade response to the trade war is similar to the response to the 1980 liberalization that initially granted China access to U.S. markets at NTR terms and was expected to be quickly reversed.

Energy Markets

• “Sanctions on Russia and the Splintering of the World Oil Market”  American Enterprise Institute

  After the West’s imposition of sanctions on Russia’s oil industry, there is a larger share of world oil production under sanction than at any time in decades. Sanctions impose costs on Iran, Russia, and Venezuela by forcing them to sell oil below market prices. However, sanctions also provide benefits to countries that buy cheap oil. China, India, and Turkey have been major beneficiaries of cheaper oil. Sanctions also make oil markets less efficient and more opaque. Policymakers must calibrate current and future oil sanctions to maximize cost imposition on adversaries while limiting the extent to which they make oil markets more inefficient.

European Security Policy

• “The future of European defense and security”   McKinsey & Company

  Much has been said and written about Europe’s urgent need to build up its defense capabilities.  But what does that exactly mean?  What precisely does the EU need to do and what challenges do EU governments, and the defense and security sectors face to achieve an effective level of defense?  McKinsey takes a deep dive to find those answers in this study.

Charts of the Week

How Russia Uses China to Get Around Sanctions

The Bell – a truly independent Russian economic news source – reports on how, since most leading economies placed tough sanctions on Russia following the invasion of Ukraine, Russian companies (and the Kremlin) have worked tirelessly to get around the sanctions.  And they have found China to be the best place to get much of what they need for home consumption – as well as obtaining a lot of products known as “dual purpose” items – e.g., for civilian and military use.

Russian imports from China reached a record $111 billion in 2023, according to Chinese customs data analyzed by The Bell — up 47% on 2022, and 65% higher than in 2021, the last full year before the invasion. 

High-tech goods are among the top three Chinese exports to Russia. That’s no surprise: under sanctions, many Russian companies had to find new sources of equipment, spare parts, electronics and vehicles. In 2023, Russia significantly increased its imports of computers from China, as well as compressors, machine tools and their spare parts, turbines, optical devices and other advanced manufacturing equipment. The Bell lays it out in these excellent charts below:

My Presentation to the Iowa Soybean Association and Interview with “The State of Soy” on India’s Promise

I was delighted to talk with Aaron Putze , Chief Officer, Strategy and Brand Management of the Iowa Soybean Association (ISA) following my recent presentation at the ISA. We spoke of the global markets for soy and how India - now the largest country in the world, having surpassed China this past summer - is likely to become a major market for the US.

The Global Week Ahead

February 18 - 26, 2024

The coming week is one of sad anniversaries and a likely major geopolitical inflection point in the Middle East.  It is also a big week the U.S. presidential campaigns as to whether or not former President Donald Trump can lock up the Republican nomination for president.

First, to the anniversary:  Saturday will be the second anniversary of Russia’s (second) invasion of Ukraine.  We say “second” to remind readers President Vladimir Putin first militarily invaded the Donbas and Crimean regions of Ukraine in 2014, annexing them under Russian control.  After signing the Minsk Agreements in 2015 to cease military actions against Ukraine, he then broke those agreements when he launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

The major geopolitical inflection point we will be watching closely this week is Israel’s pending ground offensive against Hamas forces in Rafah, the last Palestinian refuge on the southern edge of the Gaza Strip.  Global leaders ranging from  President Joe Biden to numerous leaders who gathered at the Munich Security Conference this past weekend have strongly urged Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to not press ahead with the assault, seeking ways to find a negotiated cease-fire in return for Israeli hostages held by Hamas.  As those negotiations have proven fruitless, it appears Netanyahu will press forward, likely to prove a turning point in Israeli-U.S. relations.

Staying on geopolitical events taking place this week, markets will watch closely as Brazil hosts a meeting of G20 foreign ministers in Rio de Janeiro.  Brazil is the chair of the G20 in 2024, and Brazilian President Lula da Silva (“Lula”) appears determined to use the opportunity to bring greater world focus on Southern Tier issues ranging from hunger to sustainable development to having a more significant say in global governance.  Over the weekend, Lula inflamed relations with Israel by comparing the military campaign in Gaza to the Holocaust.  The situations in Gaza, the Red Sea, and Ukraine will be keen discussion points.  But with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov attending the meetings, any new resolutions among foreign ministers aimed either at Russia or Iran are likely to be blocked.

Also, this coming week, the E.U. is expected to deploy 700 soldiers – mainly from Germany, France, and Italy – to support further military operations in the Red Sea against Iranian-backed Houthi attacks on commercial shipping.  Germany already has a defense frigate participating in the joint operation with U.S. and U.K. naval ships.

Here in the U.S., the Republican Presidential Primary in South Carolina will be held Saturday.  Most observers see it as the last obstacle to former President Donald Trump’s path to renomination if he can beat former South Carolina Governor Nikki Hailey.  Current polls suggest Trump is well ahead of Hailey. 

The U.S. Congress is out of session for the Presidents Day holiday this week.   But when they return, they face yet another imminent deadline of March 1 to pass the 2024 budget – or another Continuing Resolution to keep the government open.  Additionally, House Republican leadership faces growing pressure also to take up and pass a $95 billion aid package for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan.  House Speaker Michael Johnson (R-LA) has said he does not intend to bring up the Senate-passed package for a vote unless it contains provisions providing greater security on the U.S. southern border.

Turning to the significant global economic and financial calendar this week, markets will focus on the release of the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes on Wednesday and the European Central Bank’s minutes being released on Thursday.  Markets will also look at China’s monetary policy decision this Sunday before Chinese markets reopen Monday following the Lunar New Year holiday.  Otherwise, it is a relatively light economic release calendar this week. 

Below is what else we are watching around the world this coming week:

Sunday, February 18, 2024 

Global 

• UN Secretary-General António Guterres travels to Doha, Qatar, for a follow-up meeting of Special Envoys from Member States and regional organizations on Afghanistan that he is convening on 18 and 19 February. The objective of the meeting is to discuss how to approach increasing international engagement in a more coherent, coordinated, and structured manner, including through consideration of the recommendations of the independent assessment on Afghanistan. Nothing significant to report. 

Americas 

Political/Social Events – 

• US Secretary of Homeland Security Alejandro Mayorkas will travel to Vienna, Austria, to meet with People’s Republic of China (PRC) State Councilor and Minister of Public Security Wang Xiaohong.  Mayorkas and Wang will discuss cooperation on counternarcotics as a follow-up to the inaugural meeting of the U.S.-PRC Counternarcotics Working Group. They will also discuss efforts to counter child sexual exploitation and abuse and other law enforcement priorities.  

• The Dominican Republican holds local elections. 

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Nothing significant to report. 

Asia 

Political/Social Events – 

• Nothing significant to report. 

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Nothing significant to report. 

Europe 

Political/Social Events – 

• A bipartisan delegation of U.S. senators will visit Budapest, Hungary, in an attempt to convince Prime Minister Viktor Orban to ratify Sweden's NATO membership bid. The senators making the trip are Senator Jeanne Shaheen, co-chair of the Senate NATO Observer Group, member of the Committee on Foreign Relations and Committee on Appropriations; Senator Thom Tillis, co-chair of the Senate NATO Observer Group;

• Senator Chris Murphy, member of the Committee on Foreign Relations and Committee on Appropriations; and Senator Chris Van Hollen, member of the Committee on Foreign Relations and Committee on Appropriations.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Nothing significant to report. 

Middle East 

Political/Social Events – 

• Nothing significant to report. 

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Nothing significant to report. 

Africa 

Political/Social Events – 

• Gambia celebrates Independence Day, marking the date when the country was granted its independence from the UK in 1965. 

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.  

Monday, February 19, 2024 

Global 

• The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on Somalia. Nothing significant to report. 

• The International Criminal Court in the Hague holds a hearing on Israel’s policies in Gaza.

Americas 

Political/Social Events – 

• The US observes President’s Day, a national holiday.  Markets are closed, as is the federal government.

• Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov travels to Havana, Cuba for high-level talks. Lavrov will then travel on to Venezuela to meet with President Nicolas Maduro and Vice President Delcy Rodriquez in advance of Maduro’s expected visit to Russia sometime this spring.  Lavrov will also use the trip to Venezuela to meet with a high-level delegation of Bolivian diplomats. He will then travel to Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, to participate in the G20 Foreign Ministers meeting.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity (December), Business Confidence Report (February), BCB Focus Market Readout 

• Canada PPI Report (January), Raw Materials Prices (January) 

• Paraguay Interest Rate Decision Report 

Asia 

Political/Social Events – 

• Japan will host a Japan-Ukraine conference on economic reconstruction in Tokyo.

• Singapore hosts the Singapore Airshow, Asia’s biggest international aerospace and defense trade show.

• India and the European Union are due to hold a seventh round of free trade talks from Monday through Friday. 

Economic Reports/Events – 

• China Current Account (Q4) 

• New Zealand Composite PCI (January), Services PSI (January) 

• Japan Machinery Orders (December), 52-Week Bill Auction 

• Indonesia Property Price Index (Q4) 

• Thailand Full Year GDP Growth, GDP Growth Rate (Q4) 

Europe 

Political/Social Events – 

• The EU is expected to approve the launch of a naval task force, joining with US and UK naval forces, to protect shipping in the Red Sea from Houthi militant attacks.

commercial vessels.

• European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will launch her bid for a second term as EC President during an event hosted by her Christian Democratic Union party in Germany.

• German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will meet South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol in Berlin, Germany.  South Korea is seeking greater investment and trade opportunities in the EU and also is seeking greater German investment in South Korea.

• The EU Foreign Affairs Council meets in Brussels. They are expected to discuss the situation in Gaza, the Ukraine War, the situation in the Sahel (and how to perhaps engage further with the region) and offer an exchange of views on Belarus. 

• There will be an informal meeting of EU Tourism Ministers through February 20 in Brussels. 

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Spain Balance of Trade (December), Consumer Confidence (January) 

• Serbia CPI Report (January), Inflation Rate Report (January) 

• Belarus GDP Report (January) 

Middle East 

Political/Social Events – 

• Nothing significant to report. 

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Israel GDP Growth Annualized (Q4), Unemployment Rate Report (January) 

• Oman Inflation Rate 

• Qatar Inflation Rate (January) 

Africa 

Political/Social Events – 

• The UN Food and Agriculture Organization holds its 37th Regional Conference for Asia and the Pacific in Colombo, Sri Lanka.

• The second Canada-Africa Business Conference, organized by the Canada-Africa Chamber of Business in partnership with Kenya Private Sector Alliance, will take place in Nairobi through February 20.

• The Africa Agri Expo takes place in Nairobi with over 5,000 agribusiness and agri-professionals discussing topics including data-driven agriculture and sustainable agriculture. 

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Ivory Coast Inflation Report (January) 

• Nigeria Unemployment Rate (Q3) 

• Ethiopia Inflation Rate (January) 

Tuesday, February 20, 2024 

Global 

• Nothing significant to report. 

Americas 

Political/Social Events – 

• US Secretary of State Antony Blinken travels to Brazil to attend the G20 Foreign Ministers meeting.

• In New York, the trial of ex-Honduran president Juan Orlando Hernandez on drug trafficking charges begins.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Canada Inflation Rate (January), CPI Median (January)  

• USA CB Leading Index (January), 3-, 6-month, 52-week Bill Auction 

• Argentina Balance of Trade (January) 

• El Salvador Balance of Trade (January) 

Asia 

Political/Social Events – 

• Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will visit Jammu and Kashmir, his first trip to the province since the 2019 abrogation of Article 370 of India's constitution, which granted Jammu and Kashmir a semi-autonomous status.

• The INDUS X Conference will be held in New Delhi through February 21. Co-hosted by the US-India Business Council and the Society of Indian Defense Manufacturers in collaboration with the US Department of Defense and the Indian Ministry of Defense.  The conference is seen as a significant step toward further building and accelerating the strategic defense partnership between the US and India. INDUS-X stands for “US-India Defense Accelerator Ecosystem” and was first launched in 2023 in Washington, D.C. in advance of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s State Visit to the United States.

• The Asia-Pacific Forum on Sustainable Development, hosted by the UN, will be held in Bangkok, Thailand. 

Economic Reports/Events – 

• South Korea Consumer Confidence (February) 

• Australia RBA Meeting Minutes 

• China Loan Prime Rate (February) 

• Japan 20-Year JGB Auction 

• Malaysia Imports/ Exports/ Trade Reports (January 

• Hong Kong Unemployment Rate (January) 

• Singapore MAS 12- and 4-Week Bill Auction 

• New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index (Feb/20) 

Europe 

Political/Social Events – 

• The EU-Georgia Association Council meets in Brussels. Chaired by the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell and Georgian Prime Minister of Georgia Irakli Kobakhidze, they are expected to discuss Georgia’s EU accession path, political dialogue and reform, trade, and conflict resolution.  

• The EU General Affairs Council meets in Brussels. They will discuss the rule of law in Poland.

• Polish farmers are expected to protest against EU measures to tackle climate change and the massive import of Ukrainian products.

• Economic Reports/Events – 

• Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey testifies on the economy and monetary policy before the Parliament’s Treasury Committee.

• Switzerland Balance of Trade (January) 

• Euro Area Current Account (December), Construction Output (December) 

• Greece Current Account (December) 

• Italy Construction Output (December), Current Account (December) 

• Poland Corporate Sector Wages (January), Employment Growth (January), Industrial Production (January), PPI (January) 

• Great Britain 30-Year Treasury Gilt Auction 

• Germany 2-Year Schatz Auction 

• Turkey Central Government Debt Report (January) 

• Slovakia Current Account (December), Unemployment Rate (January) 

Middle East 

Political/Social Events – 

• Today is the anniversary of the Moroccan Arab Spring uprising.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Kuwait Inflation Rate (January) 

• Oman Inflation Rate (January), M2 Money Supply (December), Total Credit (December) 

• Israel Inflation Expectations (February) 

Africa 

Political/Social Events – 

• The Cameroon–European Union Business Week will gather public and private sector stakeholders from both sides in Yaoundé, Cameroon.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (December), Unemployment Rate (Q4) 

• Mozambique GDP Growth Rate (Q4) 

Wednesday, February 21, 2024 

Global 

• G20 Foreign Ministers meet in Rio de Janeiro (Brazil is chairing the G20 in 2024). They are likely to focus on Ukraine and the Israel-Hamas conflict. 

• The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations on the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic (MINUSCA).    

• In Nairobi, the UN Climate and Clean Air Conference 2024 will take place from 21 to 23 February, ahead of UNEA-6. The Conference will focus on the cost of inaction, highlighting ways to further scale up implementation of the Global Methane Pledge, Clean Air Flagship and Kigali Amendment, and collectively charting the course to 2025 and beyond. 

Americas 

Political/Social Events – 

• U.S. House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party chair Mike Gallagher will lead a congressional delegation to visit Taiwanese President-elect William Lai in Taipei, Taiwan.

• The Conservative Political Action Committee (CPAC) 2024 meeting takes place in Washington, D.C. through February 24.  Former President Donald Trump will speak as will former UK Prime Minister Liz Truss, Argentine President Javier Milei, and other conservative leaders.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman speaks at the Exchequer Club of Washington, D.C. 

• Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic to give welcome remarks before the Airports Council International CFO Summit hosted by the Regional Economic Information Network (REIN) of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. 

• Mexico Retail Sales (December) 

• US Federal Reserve Board Open Market Committee Minutes, USA Mortgage Reports (Feb/16), MBA Purchase Index (Feb/16), Redbook (Feb/17), 17-Week Bill Auction, 2-Year FRN Auction, 20-Year Bond, API Crude Oil Stock Change (February) 

• Canada New Housing Price Index (January), 10-Year Bond Auction  

• Costa Rica Balance of Trade (January) 

Asia 

Political/Social Events – 

• APEC holds a meeting of Deputy Finance Ministers and Deputy Central Bankers in Arequipa, Peru.

• The Raisina Dialogue 2024 begins in New Delhi and runs through February 23.  The Dialogue is India’s premier geopolitical and geoeconomics conference.  

Economic Reports/Events – 

• South Korea Business Confidence (February), PPI (January and Q4) 

• New Zealand PPI Report (Q4) 

• Japan Reuters Tankan (February), Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January) 

• Australia Westpac Leading Index (January), Wage Price Index (Q4) 

• Indonesia Interest Rate Decision, Loan Growth (January), Facility Rate (February), Lending Facility Rate (February) 

• India M3 Money Supply (Feb/09) 

• Thailand New Car Sales (January) 

Europe 

Political/Social Events – 

• Russia's Federal Assembly will vote to suspend the country's participation in the Parliamentary Assembly of the Organization for Security and Cooperation. 

• There will be an informal meeting of EU Economic and Financial Affairs Ministers through February 24 in Brussels.

• Doctors in England and Wales are expected to go on strike over wages until February 28. 

Economic Reports/Events – 

• ECB Board Member Edouard Fernandez-Bollo participates in a roundtable discussion entitled "Sustainability risks in the banking sector" at EUROFI High-Level Seminar 2024, organized in association with the Belgian Presidency of the Council of the EU in Ghent, Belgium. 

• ECB Board Member Anneli Tuominen participates in a panel discussion entitled "Cyber and digital operational resilience: key pending issues (DORA CTPP oversight, EU and international cyber initiatives, digital infrastructure…" at EUROFI High-Level Seminar 2024 organized in association with the Belgian Presidency of the Council of the EU in Ghent, Belgium.

• Bank of England Member of the Monetary Policy Committee Swati Dhingra gives a speech at the Market News International Connect event entitled “Recent BoE Projections – Key Factors/Judgments” in London.

• ECB Non-Monetary Policy Meeting, Euro Area New Car Registrations (January), 3- and 6-Month Auction, Consumer Confidence Flash (February) 

• Turkey Consumer Confidence (February) 

• Great Britain Public Sector Net Borrowing (January), 5-Year Treasury Gilt Auction, CBI Industrial Trends Orders (February) 

• Germany 10-Year Bund Auction 

• Ireland Residential Property Prices (December) 

• Slovenia Unemployment Rate (December) 

• Russia PPI (January) 

Middle East 

Political/Social Events – 

• Nothing significant to report. 

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Saudi Arabia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December) 

• Lebanon Inflation Rate (January) 

• Qatar M2 Money Supply (January), Total Credit Growth (January) 

Africa 

Political/Social Events – 

• The second edition of Africa’s Green Economy Summit will be held in Cape Town, bringing together investors, African leaders, and policy-makers.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• South Africa Inflation Rate (January), 2024/2025 Budget 

Thursday, February 22, 2024 

Global 

• The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations on the Middle East. 

Americas 

Political/Social Events – 

• Newly re-elected Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele travels to the US to speak at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in Maryland.

• The IM-1 lunar lander, designed by Intuitive Machines, the first privately financed mission to the moon, is scheduled to land on the lunar surface today.

St. Lucia celebrates Independence Day.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Federal Reserve Board Vice Chairman Philip Jefferson gives remarks at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. 

• Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook gives a speech entitled “Sources of Uncertainty in the Short Run and the Long Run” at the Annual Conference of the Julis-Rabinowitz Center for Public Policy & Finance (JRCPPF) – Empirical Macrofinance in the Long Run: New Insights on the Global Economy, Princeton, N.J. 

• Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech entitled “Economic Outlook” at the Notre Dame Club of Minnesota and the University of St. Thomas Finding Forward Speaker Series, Minneapolis, Minn. 

• Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker to speak on the economic outlook before an event hosted by the University of Delaware Center for Economic Education. 

• Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari to participate in a panel discussion on economic trends and outlook for 2024 and the growth of Minnesota's economy hosted by Northside Economic Opportunity Network (NEON) Community Conversations. 

• Mexico GDP Growth Rate Final (Q4), Economic Activity (December), Mid-Core Inflation Rate (February), Mid-Month Inflation Rate (February), Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes  

• Canada Retail Sales (December) 

• USA Chicago Fed National Activity Index (January), Industrial Production (January), Initial Jobless Claims (Feb/17), S&P Global PMI Flash (February), Existing Home Sales (January), Existing Home Sales (January), Natural Gas & Crude Oil Stocks Change (Feb/16), 4- and 8-Week Bill Auction, 15- and 30-Year Mortgage Rate (Feb/21), 30-Year TIPS Auction 

• Argentina Economic Activity (December) 

• Uruguay Interest Rate Decision 

• Peru Current Account (Q4), GDP Growth Rate (Q4) 

Asia 

Political/Social Events – 

• Nothing significant to report. 

Economic Reports/Events – 

• New Zealand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January) 

• Australia Judo Bank Services PMI Flash (February) 

• Japan Foreign Bond Investment, Jibun Bank PMI Flash, 3-Month Bill Auction 

• South Korea Interest Rate Decision 

• New Zealand Credit Card Spending (January) 

• Indonesia Current Account (Q4) 

• India HSBC Composite PMI Flash (February), Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, HSBC PMI Flash (February) 

• Hong Kong Consumer Price Index CPI (January), Inflation Rate (January) 

Europe 

Political/Social Events – 

• The European Commission, NAE Normandie and CCI Normanide host a conference on Europe’s Naval Sector in Cherbourg, France.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• ECB Board Member Edouard Fernandez-Bollo participates in a roundtable discussion entitled "Diversity in the EU banking system: contribution to financing needs, future challenges and way forward" at EUROFI High-Level Seminar 2024, organized in association with the Belgian Presidency of the Council of the EU in Ghent, Belgium. 

• ECB Board Member Anneli Tuominen participates in a panel discussion entitled "EU bank crisis management framework: can an agreement be achieved for medium-sized banks?" at EUROFI High-Level Seminar 2024, organized in association with the Belgian Presidency of the Council of the EU in Ghent, Belgium. 

• ECB Monetary Policy meeting minutes released. 

• Hungary Gross Wage (December) 

• France Business Confidence (February), Business Climate Indicator (February), HCOB Composite PMI Flash (February) 

• Slovakia Harmonized Inflation Rate (January) 

• Germany HCOB PMI Flash (February) 

• Italy Inflation Rate Final (January) 

• Poland Retail Sales (January), M3 Money Supply (January) 

• Slovenia Consumer Confidence (February) 

• Great Britain S&P Global PMI Flash (February), Consumer Confidence (February), Car Production (January) 

• Euro Area Inflation Rate (January), CPI Final (January), Eurogroup Meeting, HCOB PMI Flash 

• Ireland Wholesale Prices (January) 

• Serbia PPI (January) 

• Turkey TCMB Interest Rate Decision, Overnight Borrowing and Lending Rate (February), Foreign Exchange Reserves (Feb/16) 

• Ireland Consumer Confidence (February) 

Middle East 

Political/Social Events – 

• Nothing significant to report. 

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Israel Manufacturing Production (December), Manufacturing PMI (January) 

Africa 

Political/Social Events – 

• Algeria celebrates the National Day of Fraternity and Cohesion, marking the anniversary of the protests that united the country in 2019.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Nigeria GDP Growth Rate (Q4) 

• Ghana PPI (January)  

Friday, February 23, 2024 

Global 

• The UN General Assembly will hold its 56th plenary meeting. On the agenda is the situation in the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine.    

• The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on Ukraine. UN Secretary-General António Guterres is expected to deliver remarks.   

Americas 

Political/Social Events – 

• US Secretary of State Antony Blinken meets with Argentinian President Javier Milei in Buenos Aires.

• Guyana celebrates Republic Day.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (February), Federal Tax Revenues (January) 

• Chile PPI (January) 

• Canada Budget Balance (December), Manufacturing & Wholesale Sales MoM Prel (January) 

• Argentina Consumer Confidence (February), Leading Indicator (January) 

• Mexico Current Account (Q4) 

• Paraguay PPI (January) 

• USA Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (Feb/23) 

Asia 

Political/Social Events – 

• Today is the Emperor’s Birthday in Japan. It is a public holiday, and financial markets are closed.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• New Zealand Retail Sales (Q4) 

• China House Price Index (January), FDI (YTD) (January) 

• Indonesia M2 Money Supply (January) 

• Malaysia Inflation Rate (January), Leading Index (December) 

• Singapore Inflation Rate (January), CPI (January) 

• Kazakhstan Interest Rate Decision  

• India Foreign Exchange Reserves (Feb/16), Deposit Growth (Feb/09), Bank Loan Growth (Feb/09) 

Europe 

Political/Social Events – 

• Russia celebrates Defender of the Fatherland Day (also known as Men’s Day due to compulsory military service for most Russian men).  Financial markets are closed.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• ECB President Christine Lagarde participates in the Eurogroup meeting in Ghent, Brussels. She will hold a press conference afterward. Later, she will participate in an informal ECOFIN meeting. 

• ECB Member Isabel Schnabel gives a lecture entitled "Has the fight against inflation been won?" at Bocconi University in Milan, Italy. Later in the day, she gives a speech at Forum Analysis in Milan. 

• ECB Member Kerstin af Jochnick participates in a panel discussion entitled "European financial stability: what are the main emerging risks? (strains from indebtedness, banking risks …)?" at EUROFI High-Level Seminar 2024 organized in association with the Belgian Presidency of the Council of the EU in Ghent, Belgium. 

• Euro Area Consumer Inflation Expectation (January)  

• Germany GDP Growth Rate Final (Q4), Ifo Expectations (February), Ifo Current Conditions (February), Ifo Business Climate (February) 

• Turkey Capacity Utilization (February), Business Confidence (February), Tourist Arrivals (January) 

• Hungary Unemployment Rate (January) 

• Switzerland Non-Farm Payrolls (Q4), Industrial Production (January) 

• Poland Unemployment Rate (January) 

• Slovenia Tourist Arrivals (January), PPI (January), Business Confidence (February) 

• Italy BTP Short-Term and Index-Linked Auction  

• Belarus Industrial Production (January) 

Middle East 

Political/Social Events – 

• Nothing significant to report. 

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Nothing significant to report. 

Africa 

Political/Social Events – 

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Nothing significant to report. 

Saturday, February 24, 2024 

Global 

• Today is the 2nd anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. 

Americas 

Political/Social Events – 

• South Carolina holds the Republican Presidential Primary. 

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Nothing significant to report. 

Asia 

Political/Social Events – 

• Cambodia Senate Elections are held. 58 seats are up for election, and 49 are expected to go to the ruling Cambodian People’s Party and nine to the opposition Candlelight Party.

• Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. will open its first Japan factory in the southwestern prefecture of Kumamoto. The world's biggest chip foundry wants to shift production away from Taiwan amid growing geopolitical uncertainties.  

• In Taiwan, the Lantern Festival is celebrated, marking the end of the country’s lunar new year.

Economic Reports/Events – 

•   Nothing significant to report. 

Europe 

Political/Social Events – 

• The EU will likely announce a new round of sanctions on Russia-linked entities before the second anniversary of the invasion of Ukraine.

• Today is Estonia's Independence Day.

• Belarus Parliamentary Election  

Economic Reports/Events – 

•   Nothing significant to report. 

Middle East 

Political/Social Events – 

• Nothing significant to report. 

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Nothing significant to report. 

Africa 

Political/Social Events – 

• Nothing significant to report. 

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Nothing significant to report. 

Sunday, February 25, 2024 

Global 

• Nothing significant to report. 

Americas 

Political/Social Events – 

• Guyana hosts the 46th Regular Meeting of the Conference of Heads of Government of the Caribbean Community (CARICOM).

• Former President Jair Bolsonaro has called on supporters to protest in São Paulo on February 25. Federal police accuse Bolsonaro of plotting to stay in power regardless of 2022 election results.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Nothing significant to report. 

Asia 

Political/Social Events – 

• Cambodia holds legislative elections.  

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Nothing significant to report. 

Europe 

Political/Social Events – 

• Early voting begins in Russia for the presidential election.

• The EU Foreign Affairs Council (Trade) meets in Abu Dhabi through February 29. The meeting will be held on the margins of the 13th Ministerial Conference (MC13) of the World Trade Organization (WTO), which will be held in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, from 26 to 29 February 2024. 

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Nothing significant to report. 

Middle East 

Political/Social Events – 

• Today is Kuwait National Day.

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Israel Composite Economic Index (January) 

Africa 

Political/Social Events – 

• Nothing significant to report. 

Economic Reports/Events – 

• Nothing significant to report. 

Please let us know if you have any questions or if we can be helpful in any way.

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

February 19 - 23, 2024

The coming week is short in Washington, with Monday being a federal holiday (Presidents Day).   The U.S. Senate and House of Representatives are out of session for the week, and federal regulators have a light schedule.

But we will be watching one significant event this coming week:  The Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC) will meet this coming Friday.  The preliminary agenda for the executive session includes the Securities and Exchange Commission’s regulatory agenda; recent banking and commercial real estate developments; the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau’s proposed rule to define larger participants of a market for general-use digital consumer payment applications; the Council’s priorities for 2024; and the Office of Financial Research’s work to collect data on non-centrally cleared bilateral repurchase agreement transactions.

Looking back at events from last week, the Federal Reserve, FDIC, and OCC released their economic scenarios for their 2024 stress testing.  Stress testing requires banks to have between $10 billion and $250 billion to undergo the supervisory scenarios.

Also last week, the markets sat up and paid close attention to Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr’s speech at Columbia University School of Law when he addressed the Fed’s focus on commercial real estate risk.  Barr said the Fed is “closely focused” on how commercial real estate risk is being managed by banks.  Coming nearly one year after Silicon Valley Bank failed due to unrealized real estate losses, Barr’s comments suggested what many have expected: likely downgrades of confidential bank health ratings and Fed disciplinary actions.

Speaking of the FDIC, the Special Committee of the FDIC’s Board of Directors overseeing an independent third-party review of the agency’s workplace culture issued an interesting statement on Thursday.  Reminding readers of the investigation and that the law firm of Cleary Gottlieb was managing the independent review, the statement said, “...more than 350 people have contacted” Cleary Gottlieb.  Our view is that even a fraction of that number of serious complaints will not be good for FDIC Chair Marty Gruenberg or the agency overall. 

Below are all the significant public events we are looking at in the coming week:

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

• The Senate is out of session this week.

House of Representatives

• The House of Representatives is out of session this week.

US Regulatory Meetings & Events 

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

• February 21, 12:00 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman speaks at the Exchequer Club of Washington, D.C.

• February 22, 10:45 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Vice Chairman Philip Jefferson gives remarks at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

• February 22, 5:00 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook gives a speech entitled “Sources of Uncertainty in the Short Run and the Long Run” at the Annual Conference of the Julis-Rabinowitz Center for Public Policy & Finance (JRCPPF) – Empirical Macrofinance in the Long Run: New Insights on the Global Economy, Princeton, N.J.

• February 22, 7:35 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech entitled “Economic Outlook” at the Notre Dame Club of Minnesota and University of St. Thomas Finding Forward Speaker Series, Minneapolis, Minn.

U.S. Treasury Department

• February 16 – 22: Treasury  Under Secretary of the Treasury for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence Brian E. Nelson will travel to Europe to coordinate with European allies on further efforts to deny Russia the resources it needs to prosecute its unjust war.  He will visit Munich, Germany; Brussels, Belgium; and Paris, France. 

• February 23: The Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC) will meet. The preliminary agenda for the executive session includes the Securities and Exchange Commission’s regulatory agenda; recent banking and commercial real estate developments; the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau’s proposed rule to define larger participants of a market for general-use digital consumer payment applications; the Council’s priorities for 2024; and the Office of Financial Research’s work to collect data on non-centrally cleared bilateral repurchase agreement transactions.

Securities and Exchange Commission

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

• February 20, 4:30 a.m. EST/10:30 a.m. GMT+1 – CFTC Commissioner Caroline D. Pham will speak at a roundtable of the American Chamber of Commerce to the European Union on AI in financial services in Brussels, Belgium.

• February 20, 7:00 a.m. EST/1:00 p.m. GMT+1 – CFTC Commissioner Caroline D. Pham will participate by video in a Hogan Lovells panel discussion on “Regulatory Challenges in Artificial Intelligence in Financial Services.”  Her remarks will be virtual to the event, which is being held in Rome.

• February 20, 11:00 a.m. EST/5:00 p.m. GMT+1 – CFTC Commissioner Caroline D. Pham will speak on a panel: “Can we build a globally harmonized regime? An international perspective” at the European Parliament and the Global Blockchain Business Council seminar: “The Future of the Digital Finance Strategy of the EU: A Global Perspective” in Brussels, Belgium.

• February 23, 12:30 p.m. – CFTC Commissioner Kristin N. Johnson will deliver the keynote address at the New York City Bar Emerging Technologies Symposium in New York.

FINRA

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time. 

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

·       February 20, 11:30 a.m. – The Federal Trade Commission holds a Closed Commission meeting.

Farm Credit Administration

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit System Insurance Corporation

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Import/Export Bank

• February 22, 2:00 p.m. – The Ex-Im Bank holds a virtual meeting of the EXIM Advisory Committee to discuss EXIM policies and programs to provide competitive financing to expand United States exports and comments for inclusion in EXIM's Report to the U.S. Congress on Global Export Credit Competition.

World Bank

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Association Events/Public Events

• February 20, 11:00 a.m. – The Institute for International Finance holds an online seminar entitled “Prospects for Monetary Policy in Colombia (in Spanish)”

• February 22-24 – The National Governors Association holds its 2024 Winter Meeting.  The issues being discussed include infrastructure investment, economic growth, workforce development, and healthcare solutions.

• February 21, 9:30 a.m. – The Institute for International Finance holds an online seminar entitled “IIF Global Debt Monitor: Politics, Policy and Debt Markets – What to Watch in 2024”

• February 21, 12:00 p.m. – The Exchequer Club hosts Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman, who will give a lunchtime speech in Washington, D.C.

• February 21-23 – The American Bankers Association hosts their annual Wealth Management and Trust Conference in New Orleans, Louisiana.

• February 21, 2:00 p.m. CT – The Investment Company Institute (ICI) holds a webinar entitled “The Asset Management Industry: An Introduction to Career Opportunities.”

• February 22 – SIFMA holds a Social Media & Digital Marketing Seminar in San Francisco, California.

Think Tank Events

• February 20, 11:00 a.m. – The Bipartisan Policy Center holds an event entitled “Fireside Chat with Governor Greg Gianforte (R-Montana)” to discuss ways to improve housing affordability in Washington, D.C.

• February 21, 9:00 a.m. – Peterson Institute for International Economics hosts an online event entitled “How Banking Prudential Policy Can Respond to Climate Change” with Martien Lubberink,  Associate Professor, School of Accounting and Commercial Law, Victoria University of Wellington and Sylvie Matherat, Global Senior Advisor, Mazars; Non-Executive Director, Crédit Commercial de France; International Advisory Board Member, Edmond de Rothschild.

• February 22, 9:00 a.m. – the American Enterprise Institute holds a conference entitled “The Workforce/Middle-Income Housing Tax Credit” in Washington, D.C.

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

Breakfast with Lech Walesa

One of the Greatest Leaders of the 20th Century Reminds Us to have Solidarity with the Cause of Freedom and Liberty

Last week, I was asked to join a small breakfast with Lech Walesa, the former President of Poland, Nobel Peace Prize laureate, leader of the Polish Solidarity Movement which smashed Communism in Poland and set in motion the demise of the Soviet Union, and, at his core, a hard-working union leader from the docks of Gdańsk Shipyard. Walesa was in town to encourage the U.S. Congress to approve aid to Ukraine - something the Republican Leadership of the House of Representatives seems loath to do.

Walesa came with dire warnings of Russia’s intent (does anyone know better the strain of dictatorial rule that now occupies the Kremlin? What the malign effect a die-hard former KGB agent is having on his country, Eastern Europe, and the world? It is worth noting Putin has put a $5 million price on Walesa’s head - quite a bounty on a man who is 82 years old and long out of power. But I should not say out of power - Walesa will always have extraordinary power because he is a Man of the Truth, a Man who only speaks the Truth, a man determined we all listen to the Truth.

That Truth is we must understand Putin’s intention is not just Ukraine. It is regain what was lost when the ossified Soviet Union fell - the Baltics, Moldova, Georgia, likely Romania and Bulgaria. Whatever he can take by force. And why? Because Russia is now a dying country. The demographics grimly bear that fact out as the young of Russia see no point in having children - or for that matter, staying in Russia. Migration figures are stunning (example: More than 100,000 computer experts/specialists/scientists left Russia in 2022 alone. That is not a brain drain - that is a complete brain disappearance).

For me, the breakfast was quite emotional at times. Walesa spoke of his “friends” Ronald Reagan and St. John Paul II - titans of the last century who left us all an glowing example of leadership and courage to stand up to sheer evil, to never cower, and to trust God will lead us to victory.

God bless Lech Walesa and all those brave Polish dock workers who stood - unarmed and alone - against the Evil Empire. They didn’t just save Poland - they saved the world. It would be good if we all stopped to listen to Walesa’s message today and remember - indeed, embrace and take up — the courage he, Reagan, and St. John Paul II exhibited.

Recommended Weekend Reads

February 16 - 18 2024

Here are our recommended reads from reports and articles we read in the last week. We hope you find these useful and that you have a relaxing weekend.   And let us know if you or someone you know wants to be added to our distribution list. 

The Middle East

• “Inside Johnny Depp’s Epic Bromance with Saudi Crown Prince MBS”  Vanity Fair

  With his willingness to spend billions of dollars in a relentless drive to transform his country into a cultural and economic superpower, Saudi Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman (MBS), is shaking up the world order. To decipher his increasingly consequential moods, methods, and moves, global leaders rely on thousands of diplomats, linguists, and spies. They should probably just call actor Johnny Depp. Over the past year, Depp has spent more than seven weeks in Saudi Arabia, staying in royal palaces and camps, traversing the country by yacht and helicopter, and even flying to London and back on MBS’s personal 747 for a quick trip to attend the Jeff Beck Memorial Concert at the Royal Albert Hall. In that time, Depp and MBS have become real friends. “They made a genuine connection,” says a friend of Depp’s. “It’s a shock to many of the people who know [Depp], but it’s what happened.” Insiders say Depp is now weighing a seven-figure annual contract to promote Saudi Arabia’s cultural renaissance.

• “Troubled Waters in Conflict and a Changing Climate: Transboundary Basins Across the Middle East and North Africa”  Malcolm Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center

  North Africa is home to key transboundary water basins with significant differences in their rivers’ capacities to cope with drought, rising temperatures, and increasingly limited water supplies. Climate change adds a layer of insecurity, as it is causing protracted droughts, lower yields of food crops, sea-level rises, greater frequency and intensity of sand and dust storms, accelerated desertification, reduced snowpack, and increased human displacement from low-lying coastal areas. All of this has become quite evident in the region. The eastern Mediterranean experienced protracted droughts during the 2000s, and predictions of rising temperatures and decreasing precipitation have been borne out in recent years.  Indeed, extreme summer heat waves were recorded across the eastern Mediterranean and beyond in 2020 and 2021, with Iraq and several Gulf countries experiencing temperatures that surpassed 50 degrees Celsius (122 degrees Fahrenheit). Flooding displaced people and caused damage in Egypt in 2020, and wildfires spread through parts of Lebanon and Syria in 2019 and 2020. As droughts increase in intensity and frequency, water resources, food security, and food production are adversely affected. The problem is exacerbated by unsustainable practices such as wasteful irrigation and the depletion of groundwater aquifers.

China

• “The increasing challenge of obtaining information from Xi’s China”  Merics

  The online availability of crucial information on contemporary China is under threat. While the government is becoming less forthcoming in sharing information with the public, they are also requiring third-party data providers to implement restrictions on foreign access. This increases challenges in assessing China’s future development in key fields for companies, governments, and researchers alike. Geopolitical tensions are a principal driver behind the disappearing data. China’s authorities are concerned that online information can be used in ways to harm its development or discredit its policies. Controlling the sources foreign observers can use to study and analyze the country is one way for Beijing to control the narrative. Still, non-geopolitical considerations are also at play. Internet bottlenecks, concerns about personal information protection, and even the discretion of individual webmasters are adding to the risks of information disappearing. 

• “China’s Pathfinder Update: Lack of Policy Solutions in Second Half of 2023 Belies Official Data”  Rhodium Group

  Through the second half of 2023, the gap between China’s impressive official data and visibly underwhelming consumer demand, unresolved local government debt problems, and an unprecedented drop in foreign direct investment was stark. The China Pathfinder framework scans for evidence of market policy reorientation to fix these problems. But in this coverage period (July–December 2023), Beijing’s response was limited. Officials redoubled efforts (and incentives) to encourage foreign investment and trade, pledged to loosen cross-border data transfer rules, and increased deficit spending limits to stoke anemic demand. China’s government also simultaneously threatened economists with consequences for even talking about bearish signals and discontinued unflattering economic data, severely aggravating credibility concerns. Policymakers did next to nothing to tackle the real structural problems. Though we expect the severity of 2022–23 declines to set China up for a modest cyclical rebound in 2024, long-term growth potential will disappoint until fundamentals are addressed.

Estonia/Baltic Security/Russia

• “International Security and Estonia 2024”  Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service

  In their 9th annual report, the Estonian Intelligence Service reports make clear the country is increasingly concerned about Russian military aggression against the NATO member nation and the greater Baltic region if Ukraine is defeated.  It goes on to “focus on China and Russia’s relationship and their common opposition to the West, even though China’s plans are much more global and longer term than those of Russia, which is preoccupied with its war. China’s ambitions to reshape the rule-based world order are exemplified by its efforts to build a technological ecosystem on Chinese terms, aiming to create deliberate dependencies.”

U.S. Economics

• “Has Intergenerational Progress Stalled? Income Growth Over Five Generations of Americans”  Federal Reserve Board’s Finance and Economics Discussion Series

  Abstract: We find that each of the past four generations of Americans was better off than the previous one, using a post-tax, post-transfer income measure constructed annually from 1963-2022 based on the Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement. At age 36–40, Millennials had a real median household income that was 18 percent higher than that of the previous generation at the same age. This rate of intergenerational progress was slower than that experienced by the Silent Generation (34 percent) and Baby Boomers (27 percent), but similar to that experienced by Generation X (16 percent). Slower progress for Generation X and Millennials is due to their stalled growth in work hours—holding work hours constant, they experienced a greater intergenerational increase in real market income than Baby Boomers. Intergenerational progress for Millennials under age 30 has remained robust as well, although their income growth largely results from higher reliance on their parents. We also find that the higher educational costs incurred by younger generations are far outweighed by their lifetime income gains.

Supply Chain Issues

• “Preparing Supply Chains for a Coming War”  American Enterprise Institute

  In this report, the authors make the point the U.S. urgently needs to build resilience apart from China and not be singularly dependent on Taiwan for key national security needs – something the US has significant dependence on. Addressing US dependency requires inverting Congress’s approach from inputs, such as critical minerals, to outputs, such as planes and missiles. While the fiscal year (FY) 2024 National Defense Authorization Act contains language addressing supply chains, the Department of Defense should submit four key changes in the FY2025 president’s budget.

Charts of the Week

Trade Flows in the Red Sea, Around the Cape of Good Hope, and through the Panama Canal October 2023 – February 2024

The Reserve Bank of St. Louis published this week a new report on the impact of Houthi attacks on the Red Sea on shipping as well as the impact of the ongoing drought slowing shipping through the Panama Canal.  The report shows shipping prices that have experienced the greatest increase in recent months have been those in the Suez region, as expected.

Shipping costs in this region increased by approximately 180% on average from Oct. 20, 2023, to their peak on Jan. 26, 2024. As firms reroute shipments, the companies that continue to ship through the Suez Canal are likely raising prices to compensate for the higher risk, as well as to take advantage of the reduced shipping supply.

More surprisingly, according to the St. Louis Fed, shipping costs increased globally despite the local nature of the shock. Indeed, global freight rates, according to the Freightos index, increased by approximately 120% relative to those in late October. While some of this increase captures the impact of higher shipping costs in the Red Sea, prices have risen across all routes. For instance, shipping costs along the Pacific routes have increased by roughly 70% relative to those in late October, while those along the Atlantic routes have done so by around 20% over this period.

Recommended Weekend Reads

February 9 - 11, 2024

Here are our recommended reads from reports and articles we read in the last week. We hope you find these useful and that you have a relaxing weekend.   And let us know if you or someone you know wants to be added to our distribution list.   

Global Corruption

• “The Global Corruption Perception Index”   Transparency International

  Transparency International reports in their newly released 2023 Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI) that corruption is thriving across the world.  The CPI ranks 180 countries and territories around the globe by their perceived levels of public sector corruption, scoring on a scale of 0 (highly corrupt) to 100 (very clean). Over two-thirds of countries score below 50 out of 100, which strongly indicates that they have serious corruption problems. The global average is stuck at only 43, while the vast majority of countries have made no progress or declined in the last decade. What is more, 23 countries fell to their lowest scores to date this year. 

Global Shipping Risk

• “Maritime Security in a Time of Renewed Interstate Competition”  The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies

  Interstate competition and, in extension, global and regional maritime security have returned to a position of prominence it has not occupied for decades. European naval forces declined sharply after the Cold War, de-emphasizing the traditional tasks for navies and the capabilities needed to execute them. This raises questions about the current state of Dutch and European naval capabilities across a wide range of scenarios in a wide range of locations.

•   “How the Red Sea Became a Trap”  Foreign Policy

  The recent history of the Red Sea reads like a macabre thriller, from industrial-scale hostage-taking by pirates to tit-for-tat naval attacks between Israel and Iran in international waters to unchecked drug and arms smuggling. The aftermath of the most recent major Red Sea news, the wedging of the Ever Given in the Suez Canal, has been equally sour.  As the author writes in his book, Colonial Chaos in the Southern Red Sea: A History of Violence From 1830 to the Twentieth Century, the region’s vexatious contemporary culture lies in the impact of colonialism. Colonialism created chaos in the Red Sea in two ways.

Energy Security 

• “Geopolitical Significance of U.S. LNG”  Center for Strategic and International Studies

  The Biden administration has announced a temporary pause on new liquefied natural gas (LNG) export authorizations for proposed projects. This decision will not affect current exports or projects that are under construction, but a longer-term policy shift would have implications for both markets and geopolitics. This commentary addresses some geopolitical concerns associated with the pause in LNG export approvals. When Russia’s war on Ukraine in 2022 created a scramble for alternative gas supplies, U.S. LNG featured heavily in the transatlantic response. The United States and the European Union formed the U.S.-EU Task Force on Energy Security to help reduce EU reliance on Russian energy, diversify EU gas supplies, and accelerate the transition away from imported fossil fuels in Europe. The Biden administration pledged in March 2022 to ensure at least 15 billion cubic meters (bcm) of U.S. LNG supply to Europe that year, and the European Commission agreed to work with member states to ensure “stable demand for additional U.S. LNG until at least 2030 of approximately 50 bcm/annum.” The market delivered. LNG exports to Europe far exceeded targets for 2022 and 2023, reaching 56 bcm and 63 bcm, respectively. Today, about 50 percent of Europe’s LNG imports come from the United States.

• “Impacts of the Jones Act on U.S. Petroleum Markets”  National Bureau of Economic Research

  Abstract: We study how the Jones Act — a 100-year-old U.S. regulation that constrains domestic waterborne shipping — affects U.S. markets for crude oil and petroleum products. We collect data on U.S. Gulf Coast and East Coast fuel prices, movements, and consumption, and we estimate domestic non-Jones shipping costs using freight rates for Gulf Coast exports. We then model counterfactual prices and product movements absent the Jones Act, allowing shippers to arbitrage price differences between the Gulf and East Coasts when they exceed transport costs. Eliminating the Jones Act would have reduced average East Coast gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel prices by $0.63, $0.80, and $0.82 per barrel, respectively, during 2018–2019, with the largest price decreases occurring in the Lower Atlantic. The Gulf Coast gasoline price would increase by $0.30 per barrel. U.S. consumers’ surplus would increase by $769 million per year, and producers’ surplus would decrease by $367 million per year.

Latin America

• “The Pioneer at the Head of Banco do Brasil”  Americas Quarterly

  Tarciana Medeiros was eight years old when she first started helping her dad out at his fruit and vegetable stand in a street market. At 45, she now runs the bank that is Brazil’s main lender to agricultural producers who grow the very foods she used to sell with her dad.  Medeiros is the first woman ever to lead Banco do Brasil (BB) in its 200-year history. She’s also many things most people in such positions are not: she’s Black, she’s from humble origins, she’s from the country’s northeast, and she’s gay. And she has stepped into the role at a time when the bank is at the crossroads of some of Brazil’s core existential questions.

·       “Estranged Neighbors: The Decline of U.S. Influence in Latin America and the Caribbean”  Center for Strategic and International Studies

In Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), the United States retains residual influence through shared history, culture, language, and migration.  However, the region’s “muscle memory” has undergone rapid changes.  Gone are the days when Washington was the first on LACs speed dial; here are the days when many countries seek distance – often equal distance from both Washington and Beijing.

The Global Week Ahead

February 11 - 18, 2024

Another busy week globally.   First, we would note that Jordanian King Abdullah will meet with President Biden at the White House this week to discuss the War in Gaza and the broader security crisis in the Middle East.  Long a solid ally to the United States, Jordan has both been the target of terrorist attacks as well as striking back at Iranian militia proxy groups attacking US and other Middle Eastern forces.  While they meet, US diplomats will meet with senior Iraqi officials to determine the future of US military forces in the country.  More than 100 members of the Iraqi Parliament have signed a letter demanding US forces be kicked out.

China celebrates the Chinese New Year this week, with most businesses and financial markets closed.  But it will be a busy and important week elsewhere in the Indo-Pacific as Indonesia holds presidential elections.  Indonesia – the 4th most populous country in the world – chooses between three candidates, each with very different perspectives on the nation's future.

At the end of the week, the Munich Security Conference is held in Munich, Germany.  More than 100 presidents, prime ministers and foreign ministers will gather, and the top topics will undoubtedly be the Ukraine War and the situation in the Middle East.  Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is expected to attend and make an impassioned plea for continued support from Western supporters.

On the global economic reporting radar screen this week, markets will be looking at released US inflation numbers and the strength of US retail sales data.   In the EU, markets will look for the UK inflation numbers and the German ZEW survey release.   As we mentioned, China is celebrating the Chinese New Year in Asia, so few releases are expected out of Beijing.  But Japan will release its Q4 GDP figures, which will be seen as strongly correlating with future Bank of Japan interest rate decisions.

Here is what else we are watching around the world this coming week:

Sunday, February 11, 2024

Global

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• The US Super Bowl is played in Las Vegas, Nevada.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• China is celebrating the Lunar New Year through February 17. Much of the country is on holiday through the week.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Berlin will have a partial rerun of elections.

• Finland holds a presidential run-off election.

• There will be an Informal meeting of ministers for development through February 12 in Brussels.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• The United States and Iraq will begin a second round of discussions about the future of U.S. military presence in Iraq.  The Iraqi government has called for US military forces to leave.

• Iran celebrates Islamic Revolution Day, marking the victory of the Islamic Revolution of 1979, deposing the Shah of Iran.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Monday, February 12, 2024 

Global

• The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on threats to international peace and security. In the afternoon, the Council is scheduled vote on the adoption of 1591 Committee, followed by consultations on the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• President Biden will host Jordan’s King Abdullah at the White House to discuss the current situation in Gaza and the greater Middle East.

• Argentina's President Javier Milei will meet Italian President Sergio Mattarella, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and Pope Francis in Rome, Italy.

• In a federal court in New York, the trial begins of former Honduran president Juan Orlando Hernández on drugs and weapons charges in a Manhattan federal court.

• Economic Reports/Events –

• Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman gives a speech entitled “Defining a Bank” at the American Bankers Association Conference for Community Bankers in San Antonio, Texas.

• Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari to participate in a conversation hosted by the Economic Club of Minnesota.

• US Consumer Inflation Expectations (January), Monthly Budget Statement (January)

• Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

• Paraguay Balance of Trade (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Japanese Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa will visit Fiji and Samoa.

Economic Reports/Events –

• India Industrial Production (December), Inflation (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will meet Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk in Berlin, Germany.  Relations between the two nations have grown tense in recent months and Tusk is seeking to repair them.  Tusk will also travel to France to meet with French President Emmanuel Macron before traveling to Berlin.

• Finland's Foreign Minister Elina Valtonen will meet Montenegro's Foreign Minister Filip Ivanovic in Helsinki, Finland.  They will discuss Montenegro’s path to EU membership and mutual security and economic issues.

• German Finance Minister Christian Lindner speaking at the London School of Economics in London.

Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB Board Member Philip R. Lane participates in a roundtable: "Addressing post-pandemic challenges and looking forward, the analysts’ perspective" at conference "External statistics after the pandemic: addressing novel analytical challenges" organized Irving Fisher Committee on Central Bank Statistics of the Bank for International Settlements, European Central Bank, Banco de España in Madrid, Spain.

• Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey gives a lecture to students at Loughborough University during an agency visit to the East Midlands.

• ECB Board Member Piero Cipollone participates on a panel discussion on 'Euro@25: What's next for the EMU?' during the European Parliamentary week 2024 in Brussels, Belgium.

• ECB Board Member Claudia Buch gives a speech entitled "Adapting banking supervision strategies in the face of global economic uncertainties" at the House of the Euro in Brussels, Belgium.

• Russia Balance of Trade (December)

• Belarus Inflation (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan may meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Ankara, Turkey.  If the meeting happens, it is expected the two leaders will discuss the Ukraine War, efforts to restore the Black Grain Sea Initiative allowing Ukrainian grain and other agricultural products to be shipped through the Black Sea safe from Russian attack, and the Gaza War.

• The UAE hosts the World Government Summit in Dubai.  Seen as an alternative to the World Economic Forum, the goal of the Summit is to enhance global solidarity and shape the future of governments for the betterment of humanity through optimal means. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva and a host of world leaders will participate.

• Spanish Foreign Minister Jose Manuel Albares will meet Algerian Foreign Minister Ahmed Attaf in Algiers, Algeria.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Turkey Unemployment (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report. 

Tuesday, February 13, 2024

Global

• OPEC Monthly Report is released.

• The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate in connection with “The impact of climate change and food insecurity” under the agenda item “Maintenance of international peace and security.”

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• In a closely watched race, the New York special election to replace disgraced and expelled Congressman George Santos (R-NY) is held.  The race is between former Democratic Congressman Tom Suozzi and Republican Mazi Melesa Pilip.

• The US House of Representatives are in session this week.  The US Senate is out of sesson.

Economic Reports/Events –

• US Inflation (January), CPI (January), Redbook (February 10), API Crude Oil Stock (February 9)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Japan PPI (January), Machine Tool Orders (January)

• Singapore GDP (Q4)

• Australia NAB Business Confidence (January)

• Indonesia Consumer Confidence (January)

• Malaysia Construction Output (Q4)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• The EU-Armenia Partnership Council meets in Brussels.  EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Josep Borrell and the Armenian Minister of Foreign Affairs Ararat Mirzoyan lead the respective delegations.  They are expected to discuss the state of implementation of the EU-Armenia Comprehensive and Enhanced Partnership Agreement and of the EU-Armenia Partnership Priorities, as well as the possibility of moving towards a more ambitious EU-Armenia Partnership Agenda. They will also discuss political dialogue and reform, democracy, the rule of law and human rights, economic, trade, and sectoral cooperation, as well as migration, mobility, and the prospects of launching a visa liberalization dialogue.

• German Economy Minister Robert Habeck will travel to Warsaw for political talks.

• German Interior Minister Nancy Faese, German Domestic Intelligence Service chief Thomas Haldenwang, and German federal criminal police chief Holger Münch will host a press conference to announce new measures to combat the rise of far-right extremism.

• The Oslo Energy Forum is held in Holmekollen through February 15.

Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB Board Member Claudia Buch participates in a conversation session with Dominic Laboureix, Chair of the Single Resolution Board (SRB), at SRB Annual Conference 2024 "The road ahead: risk, readiness and resilience" in Brussels, Belgium.

• ECB Board Member Anneli Tuominen participates in a roundtable high-level discussion at SRB Annual Conference 2024 "The road ahead: risk, readiness and resilience" in Brussels, Belgium.

• Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (February)

• Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (February), ZEW Current Conditions (February), Current Account (December)

• France Unemployment (Q4)

• UK Unemployment (December)

• Switzerland Inflation (January), CPI (January)

• Romania Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Current Account (December)

• Poland Balance of Trade (December), Current Account (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Israel Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (January)

• Turkey Auto Production (January)

• Oman Inflation (January)

• Jordan PPI (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Africa Gold Production (December), Mining Production (December)

• Angola Inflation (January)

• Mozambique Inflation (January) 

Wednesday, February 14, 2024

Global

• Today is Ash Wednesday, the start of Lent, for Christians around the world.

• The World Trade Organization (WTO) will hold a special meeting in Geneva.

• The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations (Yemen).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is expected to travel to Albania before he travels to Munich to attend the Munich Security Forum.  

• In Cape Canaveral, Florida, the IM-1 mission due to launch  on board a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket, carrying the IM-1 lunar lander designed by Intuitive Machines to the lunar surface.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr give a speech entitled “Monetary Policy and Bank Regulation” at the 40th Annual National Association for Business Economics (NABE) Economic Policy Conference, Washington, D.C.

• Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee to participate in a moderated question-and-answer session before the Council on Foreign Relations.

• Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Rhys Mendes participates in a panel discussion entitled “Cost of Living, Housing and Monetary Policy” at the Lazaridis School of Business and Economics at Wilfrid Lauier University.

• US MBA Mortgage Market Index (February 9), EIA Crude Oil Stocks Chang (February 9), EIA Gasoline Stocks (February 9), EIA Crude Oil Stocks (February 9)

• Canada New Motor Vehicle Sales (December)

• Ecuador Balance of Trade (December)

• Colombia Consumer Confidence (January), Balance of Trade (January), Imports (December), Industrial Production (December), Retail Sales (December)

• Paraguay Consumer Confidence (January)

• Uruguay Industrial Production (December)

• Argentina Inflation (January)

Asia

• Political/Social Events –

• Indonesia holds presential elections today.  The race is between Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto, former Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo, and former Jakarta Governor Anies Baswedan.  Indonesia is the 4th most populous nation in the world, with more than 274 million citizens.

Economic Reports/Events –

• India WPI Food Index (January), WPI Fuel Index (January), WPI Inflation (January), WPI Manufacturing (January)

• New Zealand Electronic Retail Card Spending (January), Food Inflation (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• There will be an informal meeting of EU Ministers for Development in Brussels through February 15.

• EU member states' representatives will vote on the proposed Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive.

• In France, a verdict is expected to be handed down in the appeal trial of former president Nicolas Sarkozy in a case regarding the funding of his 2012 election campaign.

Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos gives a speech at the Annual Conference of the Mediterranean Central Banks in Split, Croatia.

• Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey to appear before the Lords’ economic affairs committee.

• ECB Board Member Piero Cipollone gives an introductory statement at a hearing on the digital euro before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) of the European Parliament in Brussels, Belgium.  Later that afternoon, he participates in the CEO Summit organized by EuroCommerce in Brussels, Belgium.

• Eurozone Employment (Q4), GDP (Q4), Industrial Production (December)

• UK Inflation (January), PPI (January), Retail Price Index (January)

• Ireland Residential Property Prices (December)

• Serbia Building Permits (December), Current Account (December)

• Hungary Construction Output (December), GDP (Q4), Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

• Slovakia GDP (Q4)

• Slovenia GDP (Q4)

• Romania GDP (Q4), Industrial Production (December), Inflation (January)

• Poland GDP (Q4)

• Ukraine Balance of Trade (December)

• Russia Inflation (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will meet with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi in Cairo, Egypt.  They are expected to discuss the War in Gaza and the Red Sea problem, which is massively slowing shipping through the Suez Canal.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Israel M1 Money Supply (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Africa Retail Sales (December) 

Thursday, February 15, 2024 

Global

• The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL), followed by consultations. In the afternoon it is scheduled to hold a briefing on the threats to international peace and security caused by terrorist acts.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• In New York, a hearing to decide on a possible date change for the criminal trial of former president Donald Trump on charges of falsifying business records as part of an alleged scheme to silence claims of extramarital sexual encounters during his 2016 presidential campaign. The trial had been set for March 25.

• Mexican cargo truck drivers will strike and blockade roads throughout the country to protest violent crime. 

Economic Reports/Events –

• Federal Reserve Governor Christopher J. Waller entitled “The Dollar’s International Role” at the Global Interdependence Center and University of the Bahamas Conference: Climate, Currency, and Central Banking, Nassau, Bahamas.

• Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic to speak on the economic outlook and monetary policy before the Money Marketeers of New York University.

• US Retail Sales (January) Export & Import Prices (January) Initial Jobless Claims (February 10), New York Empire State Manufacturing Index (February), Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (February), Retail Sales (January), Philadelphia Fed Business Conditions (February), Philadelphia Fed CAPEX Index (February), Philadelphia Fed New Orders (February), Industrial Production (January), Manufacturing Production (January), Business Inventories (January), NAHB Housing Market Index (February), EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (February 9), NOPA Crush Report

• Canada Housing Starts (January), Manufacturing Sales (December)

• Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity (December)

• Chile Central Bank Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

• Colombia GDP (Q4), ISE Economic Activity (December)

• Peru GDP (December), Unemployment (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• The Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) will launch its next-generation H3 rocket from the Tanegashima Space Center. The launch comes 11 months after the failure of the H3's maiden flight in March and is an attempt by the Japanese space agency to redeem itself. Japan hopes a successful launch will clear the way for the H3 to start full-scale operations and accelerate the country's space program.

• Indonesia hosts the International Motor Show through February 25.  It is one of the largest automobile shows in the world.  Nikkei News reports exhibitors from Japan include Toyota, Honda, Mitsubishi, Nissan and others.  Japanese manufacturers hold a market share of around 80% in Southeast Asia but are struggling to stay in the race to offer electric vehicles. Their South Korean rival Hyundai, which already has an EV plant in Indonesia, as well as China's BYD and Vietnam's VinFast will also show off their cars at the show.

• Afghanistan celebrates Liberation Day, marking the day Soviet forces left the country in 1989.

Economic Reports/Events –

• China People’s Bank of China 1-Year MLF Announcement

• Japan GDP (Q4), Capacity Utilization (December), Industrial Production (December)

• India Passenger Vehicle Sales (January)

• Australia Employment (January), Consumer Inflation Expectations (February)

• Indonesia Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (January)

• Philippines Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

• Kazakhstan Unemployment (Q4)

• Sri Lanka Manufacturing PMI (January), Services PMI (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• NATO Defense Ministers meet in Brussels. Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov to join afternoon session. 

• Serbia celebrates Sovereignty Day – also known as Statehood Day – marking the day in 1804 when the first Serbian Uprising took place.

Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB President Christine Lagarde gives an introductory statement at the ECON Hearing before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) of the European Parliament in Brussels, Belgium.

• ECB Board Member Philip R. Lane gives a speech at an online seminar organized by Florence School of Banking and Finance in Florence, Italy.

• Bank of England Member of the Monetary Policy Committee member Megan Green participates in a fireside chat with Brian Coulton, Chief Economist, Fitch Ratings, In London.

• Eurozone Balance of Trade (December)

• UK GDP (Q4), Business Investment (Q4), Goods Trade Balance (December), Manufacturing Production (December), Construction Orders (Q4), Construction Output (December), Industrial Production (December), Labor Productivity (Q4)

• Spain Inflation (January), CPI (January)

• Italy Balance of Trade (December)

• Poland Inflation (January)

• Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (January), Consumer Confidence (January)

• Slovakia Inflation (January), CPI (January)

• Greece Inflation (January)

• Ireland CPI (January), Inflation (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (“Lula”) will visit Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi in Cairo, Egypt, through February 16. The Brazilian leaders wants to find a way to improve on Egypt’s recent approval of the importation of beef from Brazil.  Lula will go on to visit Ethiopia to participate in the African Union Leaders Summit. Brazil is the chair of the G20 this year.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Saudi Arabia Inflation (January), Wholesale Prices (January)

• Turkey FX Reserves (February 9)

• Israel Inflation (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nigeria Inflation (January), Food Inflation (January)

• South Africa Building Permits (December)

• Ghana Inflation (January)

Friday, February 16, 2024

Global

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr gives a speech entitled “Bank Supervision” at the Columbia Law School Banking Conference in New York.

• San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly to speak before the National Association for Business Economics 40th Annual Economic Policy Conference "Navigating Geopolitical Turbulence and Domestic Uncertainty".

• US PPI (January), Building Permits (January), Housing Starts (January), Michigan Consumer Sentiment (February), Michigan Consumer Expectations (February), Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (February 16)

• Canada Wholesale Prices (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Singapore's Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Lawrence Wong will present the government's budget for 2024, with some observers expecting new policies aimed at helping people cope with inflation, which has risen sharply over the past year.

Economic Reports/Events –

• China New Yuan Loans (January), M2 Money Supply (January), Outstanding Loan Growth (January), Total Social Financing (January)

• Japan Tertiary Industry Index (December)

• South Korea Import and Export Prices (January), Unemployment (January)

• India Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (January), FX Reserves (February 9)

• New Zealand Business NZ PMI (January)

• Singapore Non-Oil Exports (January), Balance of Trade (January)

• Thailand Full Year GDP (2023)

• Indonesia Retail Sales (December)

• Malaysia Current Account (Q4), GDP (Q4)

• Kazakhstan GDP (Q4), Industrial Production (January), PPI (January), Kazakhstan Business Confidence (Q4)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• The 60th Munich Security Conference begins and runs through February 18. Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky reportedly will attend. 

• In the UK, the Welsh Labour leadership contest begins. Separately, Scottish Labour begins its annual conference in Glasgow. Both are significant since Labour, Britain’s main opposition party, hopes to retake a large number of parliamentary seats in Scotland and retain its majority in Wales at the upcoming general election.

Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB Board Member Isabel Schnabel gives the inaugural lecture at the Economic and Monetary Union Laboratory (EMU Lab) at the European University Institute in Florence, Italy.

• Bank of England chief economist Huw Pill speaks at the NABE Economic Policy Conference in Washington, D.C.

• Germany Wholesale Prices (January)

• UK Retail Prices (January), Labor Productivity (Q3)

• France Inflation (January)

• Switzerland Industrial Production (Q4)

• Poland Inflation (January)

• Slovakia Current Account (December)

• Belarus Industrial Production (January)

• Russia Central Bank Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference, Full Year GDP (2023)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Turkey Budget Balance (January)

• Qatar Inflation (January)

• Egypt Unemployment (Q4)

• Jordan Inflation (January)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Africa SACCI Business Confidence (January)

• Angola M3 Money Supply (January), FX Reserves (January)

• Ivory Coast Inflation (January)

Saturday, February 17, 2024 

Global

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Ethiopia hosts the African Union Heads of State and Government Summit, which opens in Addis Ababa on February 18.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, February 18, 2024

Global

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• The Dominican Republican holds local elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Gambia celebrates Independence Day, marking the date when the country was granted its independence from the UK in 1965.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Please let us know if you or a colleague would like to be added to our distribution list.

The U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

February 12 - 16, 2024

The big regulatory events this coming week will be dueling speeches between a Federal Reserve Board governor and the Acting Comptroller of the Currency and then, a few days later, a big speech by the Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision. 

First, on Tuesday, Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman and, later in the day, Acting Comptroller of Currency Michael Hsu will speak at the  American Bankers Association Conference for Community Bankers in San Antonio, Texas.  We expect further sparring over the Fed’s large bank capital requirement proposal from Bowman and Hsu. 

On Thursday, Federal Reserve Vice Chair Michael Barr will speak at the National Association of Business Economics in Washington, D.C., on “monetary policy and regulation.”   Again, we expect a vigorous defense of the bank capital increase in the face of growing opposition from Congress, big banks, and major business lobbies.

Also of importance this week, the House Financial Services Committee is also holding an oversight hearing of FinCEN.  FinCEN Director Andrea Gacki will be testifying along with Treasury Undersecretary for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence Brian Nelson. 

Finally, we will be listening closely to SEC Chair Gary Gensler’s duel events at Yale this week – one at the Yale School of Law and then later in the day at the Yale School of Management – where Artificial Intelligence (AI) and the financial markets will be a significant topic.

Below is a listing of all the issues and events U.S. regulators are engaged in this week, along with relevant think tank and trade association events.   Please let us know if you have any questions.

U.S. Congressional Hearings 

U.S. Senate

• The Senate is out of session this coming week and the following week.

House of Representatives

• February 14, 10:00 a.m. – The House Financial Services Committee holds a hearing entitled “ Oversight of the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (Fin CEN) and the Office of Terrorism and Financial Intelligence (TFI).  Witnesses testifying include:

  • The Honorable Brian E. Nelson, Undersecretary for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence (TFI), U.S. Department of the Treasury

  • Ms. Andrea Gacki, Director, Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN)

• February 15, 10:00 a.m. – The House Financial Services Committee’s Subcommittee on Financial Institutions and Monetary Policy holds a hearing entitled “Lender of Last Resort” Issues with the Fed Discount Window and Emergency Lending”
  
  

• February 15, 2:00 p.m. – The House Financial Services Committee’s Subcommittee on Digital Assets, Financial Technology, and Inclusion holds a hearing entitled “Crypto Crime in Context Part II: Examining Approaches to Combat Illicit Activity.”

US Regulatory Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

• February 13, 9:20 a.m. - Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman gives a speech entitled “Defining a Bank” at the American Bankers Association Conference for Community Bankers in San Antonio, Texas.

• February 14, 4:00 p.m. – Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr gives a speech entitled “Monetary Policy and Bank Regulation” at the 40th Annual National Association for Business Economics (NABE) Economic Policy Conference, Washington, D.C.

• February 25, 1:15 p.m. – Federal Reserve Governor Christopher J. Waller entitled “The Dollar’s International Role” at the Global Interdependence Center and University of the Bahamas Conference: Climate, Currency, and Central Banking, Nassau, Bahamas

U.S. Treasury Department

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

• February 13, 12:10 a.m. – SEC Chair Gary Gensler will participate in a conversation at the Yale School of Law on regulating AI.

• February 13, 4:00 p.m. – SEC Chair Gary Gensler will participate in a fireside chat at the Yale School of Management.

• February 15, 2:00 p.m. – The SEC will hold a Closed Meeting.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

• February 13, 9:00 a.m. – The CFTC’s Energy and Environmental Markets Advisory Committee will meet at the Colorado School of Mines in Golden, Colorado.  At this meeting, the EEMAC will explore the role of rare earth minerals in transitional energy and electrification, including the potential development of derivatives products to offer price discovery and hedging opportunities in these markets. Additionally, a presentation and discussion on the federal prudential financial regulators proposed rules implementing Basel III and the implications for and impact on the derivatives market. Finally, the two EEMAC subcommittees will offer an update on their continued work related to traditional energy infrastructure and metals markets.

• February 15, 12:30 p.m. – The CFTC will hold an Open Meeting.  They will consider the following:

  • Proposed Rule: Requirements for Designated Contract Markets and Swap Execution Facilities Regarding Governance and the Mitigation of Conflicts of Interest Impacting Market Regulation Functions

  • Proposed Rule: Foreign Boards of Trade

  • Proposed Rule: Regulations to Address Margin Adequacy and to Account for the Treatment of Separate Accounts by Futures Commission Merchants

  • Application of Taiwan Futures Exchange Corporation for an Exemption from Registration as a DCO

  • ICE NGX Petition for Amended DCO Registration Order 

FINRA

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

• February 15, 10:00 a.m. – The NCUA Board meets at their headquarters in Alexandria, Virginia.  They are expected to discuss 1) the Board Briefing, 2) the Share Insurance Fund Quarterly Report, and 3) the Final Interpretive Ruling and Policy Statement of the Minority Depository Institution Preservation Program.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

• February 13, 10:00 a.m. – The FTC holds an Informal Hearing on the Proposed Trade Regulation Rule on the Use of Consumer Reviews and Testimonials.

Farm Credit Administration

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit System Insurance Corporation

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

World Bank

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Association Events

• February 11 – 14: The American Bankers Association hosts their Conference for Community Bankers in San Antonio, Texas.

• February 15, 8:00 a.m. – The Institute for International Finance holds a Global Macro Call entitled “Fallout From the Crisis in the Middle East”

Think Tank Events

• February 13: The American Enterprise Institute holds a conference entitled “US Outbound Investment in China: Implications and Possible Congressional Action.”

• February 14 – 16: The 40th Annual NABE Economic Policy Conference is held in Washington, D.C.  Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr will speak on February 14.  Mary Daly, president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, delivers a keynote luncheon address.  Also speaking to the Conference will be Natoinal Economic Council Director Lael Brainard and former ECB President Mario Draghi.

• February 15, 11:00 a.m. – The Bipartisan Policy Institute holds a seminar entitled “Housing Supply, Labor Markets, and Economic Growth”

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

The Global Week Ahead

February 4 - 11, 2024

As tensions and military action in Yemen and the South Sea continue to escalate, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken returns to the region,  traveling to Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Qatar, Israel, and the West Bank. Also in the region, French Foreign Minister Stephane Sejourne travels to Qatar, Egypt, Jordan, Israel, the Palestinian Territories, and Lebanon to discuss the situation and seek diplomatic solutions.

Later in the week, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz visits the White House for talks with President Biden on Ukraine, the Red Sea situation, and the Gaza War. We expect them to discuss transatlantic trade issues ranging from steel tariffs to electric vehicle production. 

Meanwhile, in the United States, Israeli Knesset Speaker Amir Ohana will meet with U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) in advance of a likely vote on a substantial, stand-alone aid package to Israel. While we expect such a stand-alone bill to pass overwhelmingly in the House, it will have trouble in the Senate as a bipartisan group of senators is expected to unveil a draft bill combining greater U.S. border security and military aid to Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan. How the House intends to reconcile its stand-alone effort with the more comprehensive Senate bill is unclear – especially as military aid to Ukraine becomes increasingly time-sensitive and much needed.  House Republicans have rejected any border security proposals from the Senate, saying they are not enough.

In Asia, the Lunar New Year – the Year of the Dragon – begins at the end of the week. Stock markets in China and Taiwan will be closed for the better half the week after. 

It is a relatively quiet week on the global economic report radar screen. S&P PMI reports are being reported globally. In the U.S., the Fed’s Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey is out this week, and CPI numbers are out later in the week. In Asia, all eyes are on China’s inflation figures.

Here is what else we are watching around the world this coming week:

Sunday, February 4, 2024

Global

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• US Secretary of State Antony Blinken travels to Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Qatar, Israel, and the West Bank for discussion on the situation in Gaza and the Red Sea.

• El Salvador holds presidential and legislative Elections. Current President Nayib Bukele and Vice President Felix Ulloa are expected to be re-elected.

• Facebook turns 20 years old today.

• Costa Rica holds municipal elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Today is National Day in Sri Lanka, celebrating the island nation’s independence from Great Britain in 1972.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• French Foreign Minister Stephane Sejourne will travel to Qatar, Egypt, Jordan, Israel, the Palestinian Territories and Lebanon through February. 6.

• The World Defense Show begins in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia and runs through February 8.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Today is Angola Independence Day, celebrating when the nation gained independence from Portugal in 1975.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Monday, February 5, 2024

Global

• The OECD releases its Economic Outlook 2024.

• The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a closed meeting on the situation in Myanmar.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Argentina President Javier Milei will visit Israel for discussion with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu through February 9.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic to give welcome remarks before the virtual "Uneven Outcomes in the Labor Market" conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Board of Governors and the Federal Reserve Banks of Atlanta, Boston, Cleveland, Philadelphia, San Francisco, and St. Louis.

• US S&P Services & Composite PMIs (January), ISM Services PMI (January), Loan Officer Survey

• Bank of Canada  Market Participants Survey, Canada S&P Services & Composite PMIs (January)

• Brazil FDI (December), S&P Services & Composite PMIs (January) BCB Focus Market Readout

• Colombia Exports (December)

• Uruguay Inflation (January)

• Costa Rica Unemployment (Q4)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni will meet Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida in Tokyo, Japan.

Economic Reports/Events –

• China Caixin Services & Composite PMIs (January)

• Japan Jibun Services & Composite PMIs (January)

• India HSBC Services & Composite PMIs (January)

• Singapore S&P Global PMI (January), Retail Sales (December)

• Australia Judo Bank Services & Composite PMIs (January), TD-MI Inflation Gauge (January), Balance of Trade (December), ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (January), Exports/Imports (December)

• Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (January)

• Indonesia Full Year GDP (2023), GDP (Q4)

• Thailand Inflation (January)

• Kazakhstan Tengri Partners Services PMI (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• There will be an Informal meeting of EU ministers responsible for cohesion policy in Brussels through February 6.

• Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store will meet Director of the Private Office of the NATO Secretary General Stian Jenssen during the Leangkollen Security Conference in Oslo, Norway.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Eurozone HCOB Services & Composite PMIs (January), PPI (December)

• Germany Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (December), HCOB Services & Composite PMIs (January)

• UK New Car Sales (January), S&P Services & Composite PMIs (January)

• France HCOB Services & Composite PMIs (January)

• Hungary Balance of Trade (December)

• Spain HCOB Services & Composite PMIs (January), Consumer Confidence (January)

• Italy HCOB Services & Composite PMIs (January)

• Russia S&P Services & Composite PMIs (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (January)

• UAE S&P Global PMI (January)

• Turkey Inflation (January), CPI (January), PPI (January)

• Lebanon BLOM PMI (January)

• Qatar Financial Centre PMI (January), GDP (Q3)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• The 30th African Mining Indaba begins in Cape Town, South Africa and goes through February 8.  This year’s them is: “Embracing the Power of Positive Disruption. South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa will be joined by Zambian President Hakainde Hichilema.  Also attending will be US Undersecretary of State for Energy Jose Fernandez.  

• A high-level ministerial conference on middle-income countries will take place in Marrakech, Morocco. The United Nations Deputy Secretary-General, Amina Mohammed, will join leaders from these countries.

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Africa S&P Global PMI (January)

• Mozambique Standard Bank PMI (January)

Tuesday, February 6, 2024

Global

• The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations on the United Nations Assistance Mission for Iraq (UNAMI).  

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Israeli Knesset Speaker Amir Ohana will meet with U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson in Washington, D.C. 

The Democratic Presidential Primary takes place in Nevada.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari to participate in a question-and-answer session as part of a Greater Mankato Growth luncheon.

• Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester to give keynote before the Ohio Bankers League Economic Summit.

• Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Susan Collins to give opening and overview remarks before the virtual "Uneven Outcomes in the Labor Market" virtual conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Board of Governors and the Federal Reserve Banks of Atlanta, Boston, Cleveland, Philadelphia, San Francisco, and St. Louis.

• Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker to speak on "The Federal Reserve's Role in Our Economy" before a Rowan Institute for Public Policy & Citizenship event.

• US Redbook (February 3), Total Household Debt (Q4), RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (February), API Crude Oil Stock Change (February 2)

• Canada Building Permits (December), Ivey PMI s.a. (January)

• Brazil BCB Copom Meeting Minutes, Bank Lending (December)

• Colombia Inflation (January)

• Argentina Industrial Production (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Japan Household Spending (December), Overtime Pay (December)

• Philippines Inflation (January)

• Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate Decision and press conference, Australia Retail Sales (December)

• Taiwan Inflation (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• In the UK, former Prime Minister Liz Truss will launch a new political grouping of Tory MPs, Popular Conservatism. 

Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB Economic Bulletin

• Eurozone HCOB Construction PMI (January), Retail Sales (December), Consumer Inflation Expectations (December)

• France Construction PMI (January)

• Germany Factory Orders (December), HCOB Construction PMI (January), New Car Registrations (January)

• UK SUP Global Construction PMI (January)

• Italy HCOB Construction PMI (January), Business Confidence (January), Consumer Confidence (January)

• Romania Retail Sales (December)

• Hungary Industrial Production (December), Retail Sales (January)

• UK BRC Retail Sales Monitor (January)

• Ireland AIB Services PMI (January)

• Russia Vehicle Sales (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Israel Tourist Arrivals (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Wednesday, February 7, 2024

Global

• New York Federal Reserve’s Global Supply Chain Pressure Index

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana Kugler to speak on "The Outlook for the Economy and Monetary Policy" before the Brookings Institution.

• Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman to speak on "Supporting Entrepreneurship and Small Businesses" before the virtual "Uneven Outcomes in the Labor Market" conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Board of Governors and the Federal Reserve Banks of Atlanta, Boston, Cleveland, Philadelphia, San Francisco, and St. Louis.

• Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin to participate in conversation before the Economic Club of Washington D.C

• Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Susan Collins to give perspectives on the economy before the Boston Economic Club.

• US Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (December), EIA Crude Oil Stock Change (February 2), MBA Mortgage Market Index (February 2), LMI Logistics Managers Index (January), Used Car Prices (January)

• Canada Bank of Canada Summary of Deliberations,  Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (December)

• Brazil Gross Debt to GDP (December), Nominal Budget Balance (December), Retail Sales (December), Balance of Trade (January)

• Mexico Consumer Confidence (January), Auto Exports (January)

• Chile Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (January)

• Costa Rica Inflation (January)

• Colombia Inflation (January)

• Peru Balance of Trade (December)

• El Salvador Inflation (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet  makes his first official visit to Thailand. While there, he is expected to hold talks on the resumption of talks over a 26,000-square kilometer area in the Gulf of Thailand where the two countries have overlapping natural gas claims. Thai Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin is eager to make progress on a deal to develop the area jointly as costly imports of liquefied natural gas weigh on the economy.

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Korea Current Account (December)

• Japan FX Reserves (January), Coincident Index (December), Leading Economic Index (December)

• India M3 Money Supply (January 22)

• Australia Reserve Bank Chart Pack, Ai Group Industry Index (January), Ai Group Construction Index (January), Ai Group Manufacturing Index (January)

• Philippines Unemployment (December), Industrial Production (December), FX Reserves (January)

• Indonesia FX Reserves (January)

• Thailand Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

• Taiwan Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (January), FX Reserves (January)

• Singapore FX Reserves (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Azerbaijan holds presidential elections. President Ilham Aliyev announced elections a year earlier than scheduled. He has been in power since 2003, and there are no term limits.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Bank of England Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden will give a keynote speech at the UK Women in Economics Annual Networking Event in London.

• Germany Industrial Production (December)

• UK Halifax House Price Index (January), RICS House Price Balance (January)

• France Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (December), FX Reserves (January), Private Non-Farm Payrolls (Q4)

• Spain Industrial Production (December)

• Switzerland Unemployment (January), FX Reserves (January)

• Italy Retail Sales (December)

• Greece Balance of Trade (December)

• Ukraine FX Reserves (January)

• Russia GDP (December), Unemployment (December), Business Confidence (January), Corporate Profits

• (November), Real Wage Growth (November), Retail Sales (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Jordan PPI (December)

• Egypt FX Reserves (January)

• Israel Business Confidence (January)

• Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• The West African bloc, Ecowas, will meet to discuss the decision of three military junta-led member states to pull out of the economic group.  The extraordinary meeting of its mediation and security council will gather in Abuja to go over the joint decision by Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso.

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Africa FX Reserves (January)

Thursday, February 8, 2024

Global

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• The US Supreme Court will hear arguments over whether former President Donald Trump can be disqualified from the primary ballot in Colorado.

• The Republican Presidential Primary takes place in Nevada.

Economic Reports/Events –

• US Initial Jobless Claims (February 3), Wholesale Inventories (December), EIA Natural Gas Stocks (February 2), WASDE Report,

• Brazil Inflation (January)

• Mexico Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Inflation (January)

• Chile Inflation (January)

• Peru Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Inflation (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Pakistan holds general elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

• China Inflation (January), PPI (January), FX Reserves (January)

• Japan Current Account (December), Bank Lending (January), Eco Watchers Survey (January)

• India Reserve Bank Interest Rate Decision, Cash Reserve Ratio

• Australia Building Permits (December), Private House Approvals (December)

• Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• There will be an informal meeting of EU competitiveness ministers (Internal market and industry) in Brussels through February 9.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Bank of England External Member of the Monetary Policy Committee Catherine Mann gives a speech at the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum (OMFIF) ‘Inflation Dynamics and drivers: looking under the bonnet’ in London.

• ECB Board Member Frank Elderson participates in a panel discussion at the joint Institute for Sustainable Process Technology (ISPT) and Port of Rotterdam Conference ’24 "Material change" in Rotterdam, Netherlands.

• ECB Board Member Philip Lane participates in a Fireside-chat at the Brookings Institution in Washington DC,

• UK RICS House Price Balance (January)

• Hungary Budget Balance (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Turkey Inflation (January)

• Egypt Inflation (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• South African President Cyril Ramaphosa gives the annual State of the Nation Address.

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Africa Manufacturing Production (December)

• Tanzania Inflation (January)

Friday, February 9, 2024

Global

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Argentine President Javier Milei will meet with Pope Francis in Rome.  He will then meet with Italian Prime Minister Georgia Meloni.

• Chancellor Olaf Scholz travels to the US for a two-day visit, including meeting President Biden at the White House to discuss the War in Ukraine and trade issues.

Economic Reports/Events –

• US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (February 9)

• Canada Unemployment (January), Average Hourly Wage (January), Senior Loan Officer Survey

• Mexico Industrial Production (December)

• El Salvador PPI (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Australia will host the 2024 Indian Ocean Conference.

• Financial markets are closed in China for the Lunar New Year until February 18.  The Hong Kong Stock Exchange will be closed from February 10 to February 13, and the Taiwanese Stock Exchange will be closed from February 6 through February 14.

Economic Reports/Events –

• China Current Account (Q4)

• India Bank Loan Growth (January 26), FX Reserves (February 2)

• Philippines FDI (November)

• Thailand Consumer Confidence (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• ECB Board Member Piero Cipollone gives a keynote address at the 30th Assiom Forex Annual Congress "The Future is our Present" in Genoa, Italy.

• Germany Inflation (January), CPI (January)

• Romania Balance of Trade (December)

• Hungary Inflation (January)

• Italy Industrial Production (December)

• Greece Industrial Production (December)

• Ireland Industrial Production (December)

• Ukraine Inflation (January)

• Belarus Inflation (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Turkey Industrial Production (December)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Saturday, February 10, 2024

Global

Nothing significant to report. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• The Lunar New Year, the Year of the Dragon, begins.  It is celebrated across different Asian countries, including China, South Korea, North Korea, Singapore and Cambodia.  But in Thailand, the Year of the Naga, a mythical water serpent, begins.

Economic Reports/Events –

• China Vehicle Sales (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, February 11, 2024

Global

• Nothing significant to report.

• Americas

Political/Social Events –

• The US Super Bowl is played in Las Vegas, Nevada.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Berlin will have a partial rerun of elections.

• Finland holds a presidential run-off election.

• There will be an Informal meeting of EU ministers for development through February 12 in Brussels.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

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