Recommended Weekend Reads
February 9 - 11, 2024
Here are our recommended reads from reports and articles we read in the last week. We hope you find these useful and that you have a relaxing weekend. And let us know if you or someone you know wants to be added to our distribution list.
Global Corruption
“The Global Corruption Perception Index” Transparency International
Transparency International reports in their newly released 2023 Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI) that corruption is thriving across the world. The CPI ranks 180 countries and territories around the globe by their perceived levels of public sector corruption, scoring on a scale of 0 (highly corrupt) to 100 (very clean). Over two-thirds of countries score below 50 out of 100, which strongly indicates that they have serious corruption problems. The global average is stuck at only 43, while the vast majority of countries have made no progress or declined in the last decade. What is more, 23 countries fell to their lowest scores to date this year.
Global Shipping Risk
“Maritime Security in a Time of Renewed Interstate Competition” The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies
Interstate competition and, in extension, global and regional maritime security have returned to a position of prominence it has not occupied for decades. European naval forces declined sharply after the Cold War, de-emphasizing the traditional tasks for navies and the capabilities needed to execute them. This raises questions about the current state of Dutch and European naval capabilities across a wide range of scenarios in a wide range of locations.
“How the Red Sea Became a Trap” Foreign Policy
The recent history of the Red Sea reads like a macabre thriller, from industrial-scale hostage-taking by pirates to tit-for-tat naval attacks between Israel and Iran in international waters to unchecked drug and arms smuggling. The aftermath of the most recent major Red Sea news, the wedging of the Ever Given in the Suez Canal, has been equally sour. As the author writes in his book, Colonial Chaos in the Southern Red Sea: A History of Violence From 1830 to the Twentieth Century, the region’s vexatious contemporary culture lies in the impact of colonialism. Colonialism created chaos in the Red Sea in two ways.
Energy Security
“Geopolitical Significance of U.S. LNG” Center for Strategic and International Studies
The Biden administration has announced a temporary pause on new liquefied natural gas (LNG) export authorizations for proposed projects. This decision will not affect current exports or projects that are under construction, but a longer-term policy shift would have implications for both markets and geopolitics. This commentary addresses some geopolitical concerns associated with the pause in LNG export approvals. When Russia’s war on Ukraine in 2022 created a scramble for alternative gas supplies, U.S. LNG featured heavily in the transatlantic response. The United States and the European Union formed the U.S.-EU Task Force on Energy Security to help reduce EU reliance on Russian energy, diversify EU gas supplies, and accelerate the transition away from imported fossil fuels in Europe. The Biden administration pledged in March 2022 to ensure at least 15 billion cubic meters (bcm) of U.S. LNG supply to Europe that year, and the European Commission agreed to work with member states to ensure “stable demand for additional U.S. LNG until at least 2030 of approximately 50 bcm/annum.” The market delivered. LNG exports to Europe far exceeded targets for 2022 and 2023, reaching 56 bcm and 63 bcm, respectively. Today, about 50 percent of Europe’s LNG imports come from the United States.
“Impacts of the Jones Act on U.S. Petroleum Markets” National Bureau of Economic Research
Abstract: We study how the Jones Act — a 100-year-old U.S. regulation that constrains domestic waterborne shipping — affects U.S. markets for crude oil and petroleum products. We collect data on U.S. Gulf Coast and East Coast fuel prices, movements, and consumption, and we estimate domestic non-Jones shipping costs using freight rates for Gulf Coast exports. We then model counterfactual prices and product movements absent the Jones Act, allowing shippers to arbitrage price differences between the Gulf and East Coasts when they exceed transport costs. Eliminating the Jones Act would have reduced average East Coast gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel prices by $0.63, $0.80, and $0.82 per barrel, respectively, during 2018–2019, with the largest price decreases occurring in the Lower Atlantic. The Gulf Coast gasoline price would increase by $0.30 per barrel. U.S. consumers’ surplus would increase by $769 million per year, and producers’ surplus would decrease by $367 million per year.
Latin America
“The Pioneer at the Head of Banco do Brasil” Americas Quarterly
Tarciana Medeiros was eight years old when she first started helping her dad out at his fruit and vegetable stand in a street market. At 45, she now runs the bank that is Brazil’s main lender to agricultural producers who grow the very foods she used to sell with her dad. Medeiros is the first woman ever to lead Banco do Brasil (BB) in its 200-year history. She’s also many things most people in such positions are not: she’s Black, she’s from humble origins, she’s from the country’s northeast, and she’s gay. And she has stepped into the role at a time when the bank is at the crossroads of some of Brazil’s core existential questions.
· “Estranged Neighbors: The Decline of U.S. Influence in Latin America and the Caribbean” Center for Strategic and International Studies
In Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), the United States retains residual influence through shared history, culture, language, and migration. However, the region’s “muscle memory” has undergone rapid changes. Gone are the days when Washington was the first on LACs speed dial; here are the days when many countries seek distance – often equal distance from both Washington and Beijing.