The Global Week Ahead

Written By Francis Kelly

February 4 - 11, 2024

As tensions and military action in Yemen and the South Sea continue to escalate, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken returns to the region,  traveling to Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Qatar, Israel, and the West Bank. Also in the region, French Foreign Minister Stephane Sejourne travels to Qatar, Egypt, Jordan, Israel, the Palestinian Territories, and Lebanon to discuss the situation and seek diplomatic solutions.

Later in the week, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz visits the White House for talks with President Biden on Ukraine, the Red Sea situation, and the Gaza War. We expect them to discuss transatlantic trade issues ranging from steel tariffs to electric vehicle production. 

Meanwhile, in the United States, Israeli Knesset Speaker Amir Ohana will meet with U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) in advance of a likely vote on a substantial, stand-alone aid package to Israel. While we expect such a stand-alone bill to pass overwhelmingly in the House, it will have trouble in the Senate as a bipartisan group of senators is expected to unveil a draft bill combining greater U.S. border security and military aid to Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan. How the House intends to reconcile its stand-alone effort with the more comprehensive Senate bill is unclear – especially as military aid to Ukraine becomes increasingly time-sensitive and much needed.  House Republicans have rejected any border security proposals from the Senate, saying they are not enough.

In Asia, the Lunar New Year – the Year of the Dragon – begins at the end of the week. Stock markets in China and Taiwan will be closed for the better half the week after. 

It is a relatively quiet week on the global economic report radar screen. S&P PMI reports are being reported globally. In the U.S., the Fed’s Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey is out this week, and CPI numbers are out later in the week. In Asia, all eyes are on China’s inflation figures.

Here is what else we are watching around the world this coming week:

Sunday, February 4, 2024

Global

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • US Secretary of State Antony Blinken travels to Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Qatar, Israel, and the West Bank for discussion on the situation in Gaza and the Red Sea.

  • El Salvador holds presidential and legislative Elections. Current President Nayib Bukele and Vice President Felix Ulloa are expected to be re-elected.

  • Facebook turns 20 years old today.

  • Costa Rica holds municipal elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Today is National Day in Sri Lanka, celebrating the island nation’s independence from Great Britain in 1972.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • French Foreign Minister Stephane Sejourne will travel to Qatar, Egypt, Jordan, Israel, the Palestinian Territories and Lebanon through February. 6.

  • The World Defense Show begins in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia and runs through February 8.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Today is Angola Independence Day, celebrating when the nation gained independence from Portugal in 1975.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

 

Monday, February 5, 2024

Global

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Argentina President Javier Milei will visit Israel for discussion with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu through February 9.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic to give welcome remarks before the virtual "Uneven Outcomes in the Labor Market" conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Board of Governors and the Federal Reserve Banks of Atlanta, Boston, Cleveland, Philadelphia, San Francisco, and St. Louis.

  • US S&P Services & Composite PMIs (January), ISM Services PMI (January), Loan Officer Survey

  • Bank of Canada  Market Participants Survey, Canada S&P Services & Composite PMIs (January)

  • Brazil FDI (December), S&P Services & Composite PMIs (January) BCB Focus Market Readout

  • Colombia Exports (December)

  • Uruguay Inflation (January)

  • Costa Rica Unemployment (Q4)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni will meet Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida in Tokyo, Japan.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • China Caixin Services & Composite PMIs (January)

  • Japan Jibun Services & Composite PMIs (January)

  • India HSBC Services & Composite PMIs (January)

  • Singapore S&P Global PMI (January), Retail Sales (December)

  • Australia Judo Bank Services & Composite PMIs (January), TD-MI Inflation Gauge (January), Balance of Trade (December), ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (January), Exports/Imports (December)

  • Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (January)

  • Indonesia Full Year GDP (2023), GDP (Q4)

  • Thailand Inflation (January)

  • Kazakhstan Tengri Partners Services PMI (January)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • There will be an Informal meeting of EU ministers responsible for cohesion policy in Brussels through February 6.

  • Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store will meet Director of the Private Office of the NATO Secretary General Stian Jenssen during the Leangkollen Security Conference in Oslo, Norway.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Eurozone HCOB Services & Composite PMIs (January), PPI (December)

  • Germany Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (December), HCOB Services & Composite PMIs (January)

  • UK New Car Sales (January), S&P Services & Composite PMIs (January)

  • France HCOB Services & Composite PMIs (January)

  • Hungary Balance of Trade (December)

  • Spain HCOB Services & Composite PMIs (January), Consumer Confidence (January)

  • Italy HCOB Services & Composite PMIs (January)

  • Russia S&P Services & Composite PMIs (January)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (January)

  • UAE S&P Global PMI (January)

  • Turkey Inflation (January), CPI (January), PPI (January)

  • Lebanon BLOM PMI (January)

  • Qatar Financial Centre PMI (January), GDP (Q3)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • The 30th African Mining Indaba begins in Cape Town, South Africa and goes through February 8.  This year’s them is: “Embracing the Power of Positive Disruption. South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa will be joined by Zambian President Hakainde Hichilema.  Also attending will be US Undersecretary of State for Energy Jose Fernandez.  

  • A high-level ministerial conference on middle-income countries will take place in Marrakech, Morocco. The United Nations Deputy Secretary-General, Amina Mohammed, will join leaders from these countries.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • South Africa S&P Global PMI (January)

  • Mozambique Standard Bank PMI (January)

 

 

Tuesday, February 6, 2024

Global

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Israeli Knesset Speaker Amir Ohana will meet with U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson in Washington, D.C. 

The Democratic Presidential Primary takes place in Nevada.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari to participate in a question-and-answer session as part of a Greater Mankato Growth luncheon.

  • Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester to give keynote before the Ohio Bankers League Economic Summit.

  • Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Susan Collins to give opening and overview remarks before the virtual "Uneven Outcomes in the Labor Market" virtual conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Board of Governors and the Federal Reserve Banks of Atlanta, Boston, Cleveland, Philadelphia, San Francisco, and St. Louis.

  • Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker to speak on "The Federal Reserve's Role in Our Economy" before a Rowan Institute for Public Policy & Citizenship event.

  • US Redbook (February 3), Total Household Debt (Q4), RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (February), API Crude Oil Stock Change (February 2)

  • Canada Building Permits (December), Ivey PMI s.a. (January)

  • Brazil BCB Copom Meeting Minutes, Bank Lending (December)

  • Colombia Inflation (January)

  • Argentina Industrial Production (December)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Japan Household Spending (December), Overtime Pay (December)

  • Philippines Inflation (January)

  • Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate Decision and press conference, Australia Retail Sales (December)

  • Taiwan Inflation (January)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • In the UK, former Prime Minister Liz Truss will launch a new political grouping of Tory MPs, Popular Conservatism. 

Economic Reports/Events –

  • ECB Economic Bulletin

  • Eurozone HCOB Construction PMI (January), Retail Sales (December), Consumer Inflation Expectations (December)

  • France Construction PMI (January)

  • Germany Factory Orders (December), HCOB Construction PMI (January), New Car Registrations (January)

  • UK SUP Global Construction PMI (January)

  • Italy HCOB Construction PMI (January), Business Confidence (January), Consumer Confidence (January)

  • Romania Retail Sales (December)

  • Hungary Industrial Production (December), Retail Sales (January)

  • UK BRC Retail Sales Monitor (January)

  • Ireland AIB Services PMI (January)

  • Russia Vehicle Sales (January)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Israel Tourist Arrivals (January)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

  

 

Wednesday, February 7, 2024

Global

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana Kugler to speak on "The Outlook for the Economy and Monetary Policy" before the Brookings Institution.

  • Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman to speak on "Supporting Entrepreneurship and Small Businesses" before the virtual "Uneven Outcomes in the Labor Market" conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Board of Governors and the Federal Reserve Banks of Atlanta, Boston, Cleveland, Philadelphia, San Francisco, and St. Louis.

  • Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin to participate in conversation before the Economic Club of Washington D.C

  • Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Susan Collins to give perspectives on the economy before the Boston Economic Club.

  • US Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (December), EIA Crude Oil Stock Change (February 2), MBA Mortgage Market Index (February 2), LMI Logistics Managers Index (January), Used Car Prices (January)

  • Canada Bank of Canada Summary of Deliberations,  Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (December)

  • Brazil Gross Debt to GDP (December), Nominal Budget Balance (December), Retail Sales (December), Balance of Trade (January)

  • Mexico Consumer Confidence (January), Auto Exports (January)

  • Chile Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (January)

  • Costa Rica Inflation (January)

  • Colombia Inflation (January)

  • Peru Balance of Trade (December)

  • El Salvador Inflation (January)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet  makes his first official visit to Thailand. While there, he is expected to hold talks on the resumption of talks over a 26,000-square kilometer area in the Gulf of Thailand where the two countries have overlapping natural gas claims. Thai Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin is eager to make progress on a deal to develop the area jointly as costly imports of liquefied natural gas weigh on the economy.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • South Korea Current Account (December)

  • Japan FX Reserves (January), Coincident Index (December), Leading Economic Index (December)

  • India M3 Money Supply (January 22)

  • Australia Reserve Bank Chart Pack, Ai Group Industry Index (January), Ai Group Construction Index (January), Ai Group Manufacturing Index (January)

  • Philippines Unemployment (December), Industrial Production (December), FX Reserves (January)

  • Indonesia FX Reserves (January)

  • Thailand Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

  • Taiwan Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (January), FX Reserves (January)

  • Singapore FX Reserves (January)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • Azerbaijan holds presidential elections. President Ilham Aliyev announced elections a year earlier than scheduled. He has been in power since 2003, and there are no term limits.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Bank of England Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden will give a keynote speech at the UK Women in Economics Annual Networking Event in London.

  • Germany Industrial Production (December)

  • UK Halifax House Price Index (January), RICS House Price Balance (January)

  • France Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (December), FX Reserves (January), Private Non-Farm Payrolls (Q4)

  • Spain Industrial Production (December)

  • Switzerland Unemployment (January), FX Reserves (January)

  • Italy Retail Sales (December)

  • Greece Balance of Trade (December)

  • Ukraine FX Reserves (January)

  • Russia GDP (December), Unemployment (December), Business Confidence (January), Corporate Profits

  • (November), Real Wage Growth (November), Retail Sales (December)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Jordan PPI (December)

  • Egypt FX Reserves (January)

  • Israel Business Confidence (January)

  • Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (January)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • The West African bloc, Ecowas, will meet to discuss the decision of three military junta-led member states to pull out of the economic group.  The extraordinary meeting of its mediation and security council will gather in Abuja to go over the joint decision by Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • South Africa FX Reserves (January)

 

 

Thursday, February 8, 2024

Global

  • Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • The US Supreme Court will hear arguments over whether former President Donald Trump can be disqualified from the primary ballot in Colorado.

  • The Republican Presidential Primary takes place in Nevada.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • US Initial Jobless Claims (February 3), Wholesale Inventories (December), EIA Natural Gas Stocks (February 2), WASDE Report,

  • Brazil Inflation (January)

  • Mexico Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Inflation (January)

  • Chile Inflation (January)

  • Peru Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Inflation (January)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • China Inflation (January), PPI (January), FX Reserves (January)

  • Japan Current Account (December), Bank Lending (January), Eco Watchers Survey (January)

  • India Reserve Bank Interest Rate Decision, Cash Reserve Ratio

  • Australia Building Permits (December), Private House Approvals (December)

  • Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (January)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • There will be an informal meeting of EU competitiveness ministers (Internal market and industry) in Brussels through February 9.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Bank of England External Member of the Monetary Policy Committee Catherine Mann gives a speech at the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum (OMFIF) ‘Inflation Dynamics and drivers: looking under the bonnet’ in London.

  • ECB Board Member Frank Elderson participates in a panel discussion at the joint Institute for Sustainable Process Technology (ISPT) and Port of Rotterdam Conference ’24 "Material change" in Rotterdam, Netherlands.

  • ECB Board Member Philip Lane participates in a Fireside-chat at the Brookings Institution in Washington DC,

  • UK RICS House Price Balance (January)

  • Hungary Budget Balance (January)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Turkey Inflation (January)

  • Egypt Inflation (January)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • South African President Cyril Ramaphosa gives the annual State of the Nation Address.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • South Africa Manufacturing Production (December)

  • Tanzania Inflation (January)

  

 

Friday, February 9, 2024

Global

  • Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Argentine President Javier Milei will meet with Pope Francis in Rome.  He will then meet with Italian Prime Minister Georgia Meloni.

  • Chancellor Olaf Scholz travels to the US for a two-day visit, including meeting President Biden at the White House to discuss the War in Ukraine and trade issues.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (February 9)

  • Canada Unemployment (January), Average Hourly Wage (January), Senior Loan Officer Survey

  • Mexico Industrial Production (December)

  • El Salvador PPI (January)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Australia will host the 2024 Indian Ocean Conference.

  • Financial markets are closed in China for the Lunar New Year until February 18.  The Hong Kong Stock Exchange will be closed from February 10 to February 13, and the Taiwanese Stock Exchange will be closed from February 6 through February 14.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • China Current Account (Q4)

  • India Bank Loan Growth (January 26), FX Reserves (February 2)

  • Philippines FDI (November)

  • Thailand Consumer Confidence (January)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • ECB Board Member Piero Cipollone gives a keynote address at the 30th Assiom Forex Annual Congress "The Future is our Present" in Genoa, Italy.

  • Germany Inflation (January), CPI (January)

  • Romania Balance of Trade (December)

  • Hungary Inflation (January)

  • Italy Industrial Production (December)

  • Greece Industrial Production (December)

  • Ireland Industrial Production (December)

  • Ukraine Inflation (January)

  • Belarus Inflation (January)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Turkey Industrial Production (December)

 

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

  

 

Saturday, February 10, 2024

Global

Nothing significant to report. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • The Lunar New Year, the Year of the Dragon, begins.  It is celebrated across different Asian countries, including China, South Korea, North Korea, Singapore and Cambodia.  But in Thailand, the Year of the Naga, a mythical water serpent, begins.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • China Vehicle Sales (January)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

 

Sunday, February 11, 2024

Global

  • Nothing significant to report.

  •  

  • Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • The US Super Bowl is played in Las Vegas, Nevada.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (December)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

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Francis Kelly
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