Fulcrum Perspectives

An interactive blog sharing the Fulcrum team's policy updates and analysis.

Francis Kelly 4/28/25 Francis Kelly 4/28/25

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

Congress Returns to Work, HFSC Focuses on the Power of Proxy Advisors, Atkins Sworn in as SEC Chair, OCC Agenda Detailed, and Fed Releases Financial Stability Report

April 28 - May 2, 2025

Washington has just finished a frenetic World Bank/IMF Spring meeting week, but won’t be slowing down in the coming week. Congress returns to work after a two-week break and will hunker down and focus on hammering out the massive Reconciliation package. Achieving a successful outcome will not be easy or soon, as House and Senate Republicans continue to battle over basic elements of the tax portion of the bill. We also anticipate new battles emerging as members of Congress seek to restore budget cuts imposed by DOGE.

It appears the House Financial Services Committee (HFSC) intends to help with the budget-cut effort by taking funding from the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) while also eliminating the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board (PCAOB), folding its work back into the Securities and Exchange Commission. Of note, all collected fines, aside from money paid to direct victims, will be sent to the Treasury, helping to reduce the deficit. The HFSC will mark up legislation on Wednesday to make all this happen and is expected to pass on a strict party-line vote.

Over in the Senate, we will likely get clarity this week as to when Comptroller of the Currency nominee Jonathan Gould will get his final Senate confirmation vote and when the Senate Banking Committee will vote on the confirmation of Fed Governor Michelle Bowman as Vice Chair for Supervision.

In advance of Gould’s final vote, Acting Comptroller Rodney Hood will be giving a talk on the OCC’s work and agenda on fintech, debanking, and the agency’s overall regulatory priorities at a conference this week.

Credit union regulation gets a lot of attention this week. Former National Credit Union Administration (NCUA) board members Todd Harper (who was NCUA Chair under President Biden) and Tanya Otsuka announced they have filed suit against President Trump for firing them earlier this month. Harper will be speaking at the Brookings Institution on Thursday about the future of credit union regulation and what he thinks is going to happen at the NCUA.

Looking back at the last week, Paul Atkins was sworn in as the Securities and Exchange Commission’s 34th Chairman. And, as the always excellent Capitol Account pointed out, he was immediately flooded with letters and memos from a host of financial trade groups pleading for regulatory relief and/or offering the new chair advice on all the things he should do (and not do). As Capital Account pointed out, among the many issues raised ranged from enforcement to e-delivery, to corporate governance to all things crypto (side note: Capitol Account is the best daily report on what’s going on with regard to financial services and well worth the subscription. It’s a true must-read).

Finally, we would note that the Federal Reserve released its semi-annual Financial Stability Report last week. You can find the report HERE. Among the rising risks to overall financial stability cited by the Fed include global trade uncertainty and continued worry about the sustainability of US debt, including a significant rise in concern over the functioning of US Treasury markets. The report also raised concerns over hedge fund leverage, noting that the largest funds are now at historic highs.

Below is all we see happening in the coming week. Please let us know if you have any questions.

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

· Thursday, May 1, 10:00 a.m. – The Senate Banking Committee will hold a hearing entitled “Examining Insurance Markets and the Role of Mitigation Policies.”

House of Representatives

· Tuesday, April 29, 10:00 a.m. – The House Financial Services Committee’s Subcommittee on Capital Markets will hold a hearing entitled “Regulatory Overreach: The Price Tag on American Prosperity.”

· Tuesday, April 29, 2:00 p.m. – The House Financial Services Committee will hold a hearing entitled “Exposing the Proxy Advisory Cartel: How ISS & Glass Lewis Influence Markets.”

Federal Department & Regulatory Agency Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

· There are no significant events or speeches scheduled at this time.

U.S. Treasury Department

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Commerce

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Housing and Urban Development

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Small Business Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

· Thursday, May 1, 2:00 p.m. – The SEC will hold a Closed Meeting.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

· Thursday, May 1, 9:30 a.m. – The Acting Comptroller of the Currency, Rodney Hood, will discuss the OCC’s work addressing debanking, promoting bank-fintech partnerships, and supporting financial inclusion in a Q&A at the 2025 Innovative Payments Conference in Washington, D.C.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

FINRA

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit Insurance Corporation

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

· Wednesday, April 30 – Friday, May 2 – The Investment Company Institute holds its annual Leadership Summit in Washington, D.C.

Think Tanks and Other Events

· Tuesday, April 29, 2:00 a.m. – The Bipartisan Policy Center holds a virtual discussion, beginning at 2 p.m., on "Stuck in Place: How Housing Policies Shape Mobility and Economic Opportunity."

· Thursday, May 1, 9:30 a.m. –Reuters NEXT Newsmakers talks virtually with Charles Schwab CEO Rick Wurster Reuters on "the economic outlook, the proliferation of retail trading and Schwab's growth plans in Texas, exchange-traded funds and cryptocurrencies.”

· Thursday, May 1, 9:00 a.m. – 5:00 pm. – The American Conference Institute holds a conference on "Economic Sanctions Enforcement and Compliance."

· Thursday, May 1, 11:00 a.m. – The Brookings Institution will hold an event entitled “Credit union regulation at a crossroads: A conversation with former NCUA Board Member Todd M. Harper”

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

Francis Kelly 4/28/25 Francis Kelly 4/28/25

The Global Week Ahead

Canada, Australia, and Singapore Hold Elections, Japan and South Korea Talk Trade MOUs in Washington, India-Pakistan Tensions Continue to Rise, BRICS Foreign Ministers Meet, the Bank of Japan Considers Interest Rates Amidst a Small Flood of Global Economic Reports

April 27 - May 4, 2025

Coming off the whirlwind of last week's World Bank/IMF Spring meetings in Washington, the geopolitical/geoeconomic week ahead will be almost as busy. First, Canada, Australia, and Singapore hold elections this week. We are particularly focused on Monday's Canadian elections, which, according to polls, strongly suggest the incumbent Labor Party – only months ago destined for defeat – is poised to make an extraordinary comeback under the leadership of current Prime Minister Mark Carney.

Carney used President Trump's punitive tariffs on illegal immigration and Fentanyl trafficking, along with Trump's antagonistic suggestions that Canada should become the US's 51st state, to rally the Labor Party and the country to keep him in power. The only question now is how large a margin Labor wins.

Sticking with tariffs, there are three important events to watch this week. We expect to see South Korean and Japanese trade negotiators in Washington for further talks and possibly signing Memorandums of Understanding (MOUs) with the Trump Administration. The question markets are focused on is whether the MOUs effectively suspend US tariffs on both countries and how long that suspension will last. Also, this week, the Trump Administration's tariffs on important auto parts go into effect, which will likely result in increased auto prices.

Meanwhile, in Brazil, the BRICS foreign ministers will meet in Rio de Janeiro this week. Top of the agenda will be the Trump tariffs and a discussion on how to accelerate their goal of establishing alternative trade and financial systems. The foreign minister meetings will be followed by a meeting of BRICS national security advisors to discuss how to work more closely on security and intelligence sharing.

Moving to the Middle East, the US is expected to meet with Iranian officials again on April 26 for another round of talks on Iran's nuclear program. That meeting — and all future meetings—will be negotiating highly technical/highly complicated aspects of Iran's uraninium enrichment program, which will likely make the talks much tougher and slower.

We are also watching closely the devolving situation between India and Pakistan. Tensions rose massively following a militant attack in Indian-administered Kashmir last week that killed 26 people. India shut the border with Pakistan, suspended all visa services for Pakistan nationals, and suspended the Indus Water Treaty with Pakistan, which is reliant on the sharing of the river water. The two nations have always had, at best, working relations that sporadically nosedives because of events like the one in Kashmir. Considering both countries have large nuclear arsenals, it is never good to see them ramp up tensions.

Looking at the global economic radar screen, the coming week will see a number of important economic indicators released in most of the major economies. In the US, there will be no Federal Reserve speeches as the Fed goes into its two-week Blackout Period before its May interest rate meeting. Markets (and the Fed) will look at the April jobs data on Friday, the core March PCE and Q1 GDP on Wednesday, the ISM manufacturing index on Thursday, and the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence report and JOLTS data on Tuesday. In addition, the US Treasury will release its updated borrowing estimates on Monday.

Turning to Asia, the Bank of Japan meets on Thursday to consider interest rates. Consensus suggests the Bank will hold rates. Japan will also be releasing industrial production numbers and retail sales on Wednesday and consumer confidence survey on Thursday – which will be interesting to see if there is movement in the wake of the Trump tariffs. In China, the April PMIs and the Caixin manufacturing index are out on Wednesday – again, likely to be interesting early indicators of the impact of the Trump tariffs.

Moving to Europe, Germany, France, and Italy release CPIs on Wednesday. The Eurozone CPI is out on Friday. Additionally, Q1 GDP reports for Germany, France, Italy, and the Eurozone are out on Wednesday, too. Consumer confidence reports for Germany and Italy are out on Thursday, as is the European Central Bank's consumer expectations survey.

Below is what else we are tracking around the world in the week ahead:

Sunday, April 27, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Canada Federal Election

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba will visit Vietnam through April 29.

· The secretary general of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party, Sanae Takaichi, will lead a delegation to China through April 29.

Economic Reports/Events –

· China Industrial Profits (YTD) (March)

· Thailand New Car Sales (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, April 28, 2025

Global

· The BRICS Foreign Ministers will meet in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil through April 29.

· The BRICS Heads of ‘space agencies will meet in Brazil.

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open briefing by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees. In the afternoon, there is a private meeting on non-proliferation of weapons of mass destruction.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Canada holds federal elections. The ruling Liberal Party looks on track to retain power with Prime Minister David Carney staying in the prime minister seat.

· The US Congress returns to work after a two-week recess for the Easter/Passover holidays.

· Trinidad and Tobago elections for their House of Representatives.

· The Cayman Islands hold parliamentary elections as well as vote on a referendum on the decriminalizing of cannabis, funding for new cruise berth infrastructure, and the legalization of gambling in the form of a national lottery.

· Amazon is scheduled to launch the first 27 satellites or tis Project Kuiper, its fast internet network. The network is seeking to rival Elon Musk’s Starlink system.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Brazil Current Account (March)/ Foreign Direct Investment (March)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

· Mexico Balance of Trade (March)/ Unemployment Rate (March)

· Canada Wholesale Sales (March)

· USA Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (April)/ Treasury Refunding Financing Estimates

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Taiwan Consumer Confidence (April)

· Malaysia PPI (March)

· Hong Kong Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)

· India Manufacturing & Industrial Production (March)

· Pakistan Consumer Confidence (March)/ Consumer Confidence (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· There will be an informal meeting of EU Environmental Ministers through April 29 in Warsaw, Poland.

· In Brussels, NATO will hold a ceremony to mark the 70th anniversary of German accession to the military bloc.

Economic Reports/Events –

· The European Central Bank will publish its 2024 Annual Report. ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos will present the report to the ECON Committee in Brussels.

· Ireland Consumer Confidence (April)

· Spain Unemployment Rate Q1/ Retail Sales (March)

· France Unemployment Benefit Claims (March)/ Jobseekers Total (March)

· Great Britain CBI Distributive Trades (April)

· Euro Area ECB Guindos Speech

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Manufacturing Production (February)

· Kuwait M2 Money Supply (March)/ Private Bank Lending (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, April 29, 2025

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on the Middle East. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres is expected to deliver remarks. In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on Ukraine.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Brazil IGP-M Inflation (April)/ Bank Lending (March)/ Net Payrolls (March)

· USA Goods Trade Balance (March)/ Redbook (April/26)/ S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (February)/ House Price Index (February)/ JOLTs Job Openings (March)/ Dallas Fed Services Index (April)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (April/25)

· Chile Unemployment Rate (March)/ Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba will visit the Philippines through April 30. He will meet with Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. to discuss mutual security issues and China’s growing military presence in the region as well as the US tariffs.

· The Indonesia Electric Vehicle Show begins in Jakarta.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor for Financial Markets Christopher Kent will give a speech at the Bloomberg Conference in Sydney, Australia.

· Singapore Unemployment Rate Q1/ Export Prices (March)/ Import Prices (March)/ PPI (March)

· Indonesia Foreign Direct Investment Q1

· Philippines Budget Balance (March)

· Kazakhstan Business Confidence Q1

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will meet with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and attend the fourth Turkey-Italy intergovernmental summit in Rome, Italy.

· In Poland, 13 EU member states that border the Baltic, Adriatic and Black seas, begin a two-day summit in Warsaw for the Three Seas Initiative. The Initiative seeks to improve political and commercial relations together among the 13 countries.

· Japan celebrates Showa Day. Financial markets are closed.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Executive Board Member Piero Cipollone will give the welcoming speech on "Financial and trade fragmentation: risks and policy alternatives" at the joint BIS, Bank of England, ECB and IMF Spillover Conference 2025 "Policy challenges in a fragmenting world: Global trade, exchange rates, and capital flows" in Frankfurt, Germany.

· European Central Bank Executive Board Member Sharon Donnery will give the keynote speech on "What are the ECB’s plans for 2025? What are the regulatory priorities?" at the annual Conference on Banking Supervision organized by Handelsblatt in Frankfurt, Germany.

· Bank of England Deputy Governor for Markets and Banking David Ramsden will give a keynote speech at the Innovate Finance Global Summit in London.

· Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (May)

· Hungary PPI (March)/ Deposit Interest Rate (April)/ Interest Rate Decision

· Euro Area Loans to Households (March)/ M3 Money Supply (March)/ Economic Sentiment (April)/ Consumer Confidence Final (April)/ Industrial Sentiment (April)/ Services Sentiment (April)

· Slovakia Business Confidence (April)/ Consumer Confidence (April)

· Spain GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Inflation Rate (April)/ Business Confidence (April)

· Turkey Unemployment Rate (March)/ Economic Confidence Index (April)/ Participation Rate (March)

· Italy Business Confidence (April)/ Consumer Confidence (April)/ Industrial Sales (February)

· Slovenia Retail Sales (March)

· Great Britain BoE Ramsden Speech

· Greece Total Credit (March)

· Ireland GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Retail Sales (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Wednesday, April 30, 2025

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to vote on a draft resolution on the United Nations Mission in South Sudan. In the afternoon, there is a private meeting on Myanmar.

· The National Security Advisors of the BRIC member states will meet in Brasilia, Brazil.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Japanese trade negotiators will visit the United States for a second round of high-level talks on tariffs.

· Today is the 100th day of the Trump Administration.

Economic Reports/Events –

· USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (April/25)/ MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (April/25)/ MBA Purchase Index (April/25)/ ADP Employment Change (April)/ Employment Cost Index Q1/ GDP Price Index Q1/ PCE Prices Q1/ Real Consumer Spending Q1/ Treasury Refunding Announcement/ Chicago PMI (April)/ Personal Income & Spending (March)/ PCE Price Index (March)/ Pending Home Sales (March)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (April/25)

· Brazil Gross Debt to GDP (March)/ Nominal Budget Balance (March)/ Unemployment Rate (March)

· Mexico GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Fiscal Balance (March)

· Canada GDP (February)

· Chile Copper Production (March)/ Industrial Production (March)/ Manufacturing Production (March)/ Retail Sales (March)

· Colombia Business Confidence (March)/ Unemployment Rate (March)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Cement Production (March)

· Uruguay Balance of Trade (March)

· Argentina Tax Revenue (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea Industrial Production (March)/ Retail Sales (March)

· Japan Industrial Production (March)/ Retail Sales (March)/ Housing Starts (March)/ Coincident Index Final (February)/ Construction Orders (March)/ Leading Economic Index Final (February)

· New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence (April)

· Philippines Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)/ PPI (March)

· Australia Inflation Rate Q1/ CPI Q1/ Private Sector Credit (March)/ RBA Trimmed Mean CPI Q1/ RBA Weighted Median CPI Q1/ CoreLogic Dwelling Prices (April)

· China NBS Manufacturing & Non- Manufacturing PMI (April)/ NBS General PMI (April)/ Caixin Manufacturing PMI (April)

· Singapore Bank Lending (March)/ Business Confidence Q1

· Thailand Industrial Production (March)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Current Account (March)/ Private Consumption & Investment (March)/ Retail Sales (February)

· Malaysia M3 Money Supply (March)

· Taiwan GDP Growth Rate Q1

· Sri Lanka Inflation Rate (April)/ PPI (March)/ Balance of Trade (March)

· India Government Budget Value (March)/ M3 Money Supply (April/18)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Bank of England Executive Director for Prudential Policy David Bailey will give a speech at the Climate Financial Risk Forum in London.

· Bank of England Executive Director for Insurance Supervision Gareth Trunan gives a speech at the 22nd Insurance Conference on Overseeing BPA Growth Safely.

· France GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Household Consumption (March)/ Inflation Rate (April)/ PPI (March)

· Germany Retail Sales (March)/ Import Prices (March)/ Unemployed Persons (April)/ Unemployment Rate (April)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Baden Wuerttemberg CPI (April)/ Bavaria CPI (April)/ Brandenburg CPI (April)/ Hesse CPI (April)/ North Rhine Westphalia CPI (April)/ Saxony CPI (April)/ Inflation Rate (April)

· Great Britain Nationwide Housing Prices (April)

· Hungary Balance of Trade (March)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1

· Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (April)/ Economic Sentiment Index (April)

· Turkey Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade Final (March)/ Tourism Revenues Q1/ Tourist Arrivals (March)

· Euro Area ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations (March)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1/ ECB Montagner Speech

· Italy GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Inflation Rate (April)/ PPI (March)

· Poland Inflation Rate (April)

· Spain Current Account (February)

· Slovenia Inflation Rate (April)

· Greece PPI (March)/ Retail Sales (February)/ Unemployment Rate (March)

· Ireland Unemployment Rate (April)/ Harmonized Inflation Rate (April)

· Serbia Balance of Trade (March)/ Industrial Production (March)/ Retail Sales (March)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1

· Russia Business Confidence (April)/ Real Wage Growth (February)/ Retail Sales (March)/ Unemployment Rate (March)/ M2 Money Supply (March)/ GDP (March)

· Ukraine Current Account (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Composite Economic Index (March)

· Saudi Arabia M3 Money Supply (March)/ Private Bank Lending (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Zimbabwe M3 Money Supply (March)/ Private Sector Credit (March)/ Budget Balance (March)

· Nigeria Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

· Egypt Current Account Q4

· Kenya Inflation Rate (April)

Thursday, May 1, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· USA Challenger Job Cuts (April)/ Initial Jobless Claims (April/26)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (April)/ ISM Manufacturing PMI & Employment (April)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (May/01)/ Fed Balance Sheet (April/30)

· Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)

· Peru Inflation Rate (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· A Chinese ban on foreign missionaries sharing their faith or establishing religious organizations will go into effect.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Australia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (April)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)/ Commodity Prices (April)/ PPI Q1

· South Korea Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)

· Bank of Japan Central Bank Interest Rate Decision/Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI Final (April)/ BoJ Quarterly Outlook Report/ Consumer Confidence (April)

· Kazakhstan Current Account Q1

· Indonesia Tourist Arrivals (January, February, & March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Today is a public holiday – May Day - in most of Europe. Markets are closed.

· In the UK, 24 English local elections will be held as well as six regional mayor races and by-election to decide two member of parliament seats. The elections are seen as bellwether for how the ruling Labor Party is seen by voters and how Nigel Farage’s Reform UK Party is faring.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Great Britain Local Elections/ BoE Consumer Credit (March)/ Mortgage Lending & Approvals (March)/ M4 Money Supply (March)/ Net Lending to Individuals (March)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (April)

· Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI (April)

· Switzerland Retail Sales (March)/ procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (April)

· Hungary HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (April)

· Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (April/25)

· France Budget Balance (March)/ HCOB Manufacturing PMI (April)

· Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)

· Turkey Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (April)

· Spain HCOB Manufacturing PMI (April)

· Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI (April)/ Unemployment Rate (March)

· Euro Area ECB Economic Bulletin/ HCOB Manufacturing PMI Final (April)

· Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)

· Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia GDP Growth Rate Q1

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Zimbabwe ABSA Manufacturing PMI (April)/ Total New Vehicle Sales (April)

Friday, May 2, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Mexico Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)/ Business Confidence (April)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)

· Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (March)

· Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)

· Colombia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (April)

· Paraguay Inflation Rate (April)

· Uruguay Inflation Rate (April)

· Argentina Tax Revenue (April)

· USA Unemployment Rate (April)/ Participation Rate (April)/ Government Payrolls (April)/ Manufacturing Payrolls (April)/ U-6 Unemployment Rate (April)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (May/02)/ Total Vehicle Sales (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Exports from China and Hong Kong will lose their qualification for U.S. de minimis duty exemptions.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Building Permits (March)

· South Korea Inflation Rate (April)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)

· Japan Unemployment Rate (March)/ Jobs/applications ratio (March)/ Foreign Bond Investment (April/26)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (April/26)

· Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)/ Inflation Rate (April)

· Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)

· Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)

· Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)

· Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)

· India HSBC Manufacturing PMI Final (April)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April/25)

· Hong Kong GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Retail Sales (March)

· Pakistan Inflation Rate (April)/ Wholesale Prices (April)/ Balance of Trade (April)

· Singapore General Elections

· Kazakhstan Inflation Rate (April)

· Australia General Elections

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Euro Area Inflation Rate (April)/ Unemployment Rate (March)/ CPI Flash (April)

· France New Car Registrations (April)

· Spain New Car Sales (April)

· Italy New Car Registrations (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (April)

· Egypt M2 Money Supply (March)

Saturday, May 3, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The Trump Administration’s 25 percent tariffs on important auto parts go into effect.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· In Australia, federal elections will be held. The ruling Labor Party is expected to lose its small majority in the lower house but retain enough power to form a minority government.

· In Singapore, elections will be held. The ruling People’s Action Party is expected to win again, as they have in every election since 1959.

· South Korea's ruling People Power Party will select its candidate for the June 3 presidential election.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, May 4, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The Milken Institute Global Conference begins in Beverly Hills, California and runs through May 8..

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The Asian Development Bank annual meeting begins a four-day session in Milan, Italy.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Romania holds presidential elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Francis Kelly 4/25/25 Francis Kelly 4/25/25

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

The World Bank/International Monetary Fund Meets This Week, Watching for the Global Financial Stability Report, the OCC Reorganizes as the CFPB Slashes Remaining Staff, and the FCUA Board Goes to One Member

April 21 - 25, 2025

Although the US Congress remains out of session this week, plenty of regulatory action is happening. The World Bank/International Monetary Fund (WB/IMF) spring meetings are this week. With the meetings comes the publication (Tuesday) of the semi-annual Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR), an assessment of the global financial markets that also identifies potential risks to financial stability. We will be watching to see which market segments are seen as rising risk and how US regulators respond to the report.

Also as part of the WB/IMF week, the G10 and G20, respectively, will be meeting on the sidelines. We will be interested to see what comes out of those meetings in the wake of recent market disruptions caused by the Trump tariff announcements.

Not to be missed amidst all the WB/IMF action this week is acting CFTC Chair Caroline Pham's sit-down with Bloomberg on Thursday, during which she will outline the agency's agenda and policy priorities going forward.

Looking at major events last week, bank regulators approved the Capital One acquisition of Discover. That $35 billion deal was announced in February 2024 and has been slowly—very slowly—winding its way through the regulatory review process, all the while facing resistance from some quarters (mostly from Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) and other consumer advocates who generally oppose large bank consolidation of any sort).

However, what we found particularly interesting about the approval announcement was a separate announcement by the FDIC and Federal Reserve that they fined Discover $150 million and ordered the company to pay $1.225 billion in restitution for misclassifying consumer credit cards as commercial. We have gotten questions about this from clients, mostly asking if this was a case of the "White Knight" – Capital One – being allowed to buy Discover to help clean up the regulatory mess. Yes, we see it that way, but we also see it as a break from previous regulatory merger deals where regulators did not want a White Knight situation because regulators have seen such efforts actually fail. Meaning that the acquiring company, in the massive project to merge operational and risk systems, actually ends up papering over the problem and not really getting to the root of the problem. All of which means, in our view, we are seeing something of a new approach to financial mergers and acquisition policy by the Trump team – and a likely throwing open of the doors to more financial institution mergers going forward.

Also, this past week, the OCC announced a major reorganization around bank supervision, merging its Midsize and Community Bank Supervision Office with its Large Bank Supervision functions and creating a new Bank Supervision and Examination office. All this even before Comptroller of the Currency nominee Jonathan Gould gets his final Senate confirmation vote, which will likely happen in the coming three weeks. Once Gould is in place, we will watch for a potential OCC merger with the FDIC under the guidance of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. Bessent has been holding meetings with Acting Comptroller Rodney Hood and FDIC Acting Chair Jonathan McKernan on how to streamline regulation and possibly merge.

The other big news last week was that Acting Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) Russ Vought (who is also the Director of the Office of Management and Budget) was laying off more than 1,400 staffers (out of a total of 1,700 staff). That effort was temporarily blocked by a federal judge who wants to review whether the layoffs would violate a preliminary injunction blocking the agency from shutting down.

Finally, last week saw the National Credit Union Administration (NCUA) slimmed down to one sitting board member – Chair Kyle Hauptman – after President Trump fired two Democrat board members, Todd Harper (who was chair during the Biden Administration) and Tanya Otsuka. Both Harper and Otsuka intend to challenge the firings in court, but for now, they are out of the building and will not be voting members.

Clients have asked how the NCUA board functions with only one board member. Interestingly, as Chair Hauptman pointed out in a memo to staff last week, there is precedent for this. During the George W. Bush Administration, then-Chair Dennis Dollar acted as the sole board member, voting on policy issues and administrative actions all by himself.

Below is what else we are watching in the Washington financial regulatory world this coming week:

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

The Senate is in recess until April 28.

House of Representatives

· The House of Representatives is in recess until April 28.

Federal Department & Regulatory Agency Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

· Tuesday, April 22, 9:00 a.m. – the G-20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors’ Meeting takes place at the IMF in Washington, D.C. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Federal Reserve Board Governor Jay Powell will be attending.

· Tuesday, April 22, 9:00 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson will give a speech entitled “Economic Mobility and the Dual Mandate” at the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Economic Mobility Summit, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.

· Tuesday, April 22, 6:00 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana D. Kugler will give a speech entitled “Transmission of Monetary Policy” at the Heller-Hurwicz Economics Institute 2025 Roundtable with Dr. Adriana Kugler, Minneapolis, Minnesota.

· Wednesday, April 23, 9:35 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller will give opening remarks at the Fed Listens event hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (Virtual).

U.S. Treasury Department

· Tuesday, April 22, 9:00 a.m. – The G-20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors’ Meeting takes place at the IMF in Washington, D.C. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Federal Reserve Board Governor Jay Powell will be attending.

· Wednesday, April 23, 10:00 a.m. – US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will give remarks and participate in a conversation at the Institute for International Finance conference (virtual).

Department of Commerce

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Housing and Urban Development

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

· Tuesday, April 22, 12:35 p.m. – The SEC will host its Incident Response Forum Masterclass 2025.

· Thursday, April 24, 2:00 p.m. – The SEC will host a Closed Meeting.

· Friday, April 25, 1:00 p.m. – The SEC will host its Crypto Task Force Roundtable - Know Your Custodian: Key Considerations for Crypto Custody.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

· Thursday, April 24, 9:45 a.m. – CFTC Commissioner Kristin N. Johnson will deliver keynote remarks at the Africa Fintech Summit, Washington, D.C., 2025.

· Thursday, April 24, 10:20 a.m. – Acting CFTC Chair Caroline D. Pham will participate on a panel, Balancing Local and Global Priorities in Policymaking (II), at the IIF Future of Global Financial Policymaking Roundtable in Washington, D.C.

· Thursday, April 24, 1:00 p.m. – Acting Chairman Caroline D. Pham will discuss new policies and priorities at a Bloomberg roundtable in Washington, D.C.

· Thursday, April 24, 2:00 p.m. – CFTC Commissioner Kristin N. Johnson to participate in AI Evolution and the Future of Governance Roundtable at the Institute for International Finance (IIF) in Washington, D.C.

· Friday, April 25, 12:00 p.m. – CFTC Commissioner Summer K. Mersinger will participate on a panel, Clearing the Way to the Future: How Is Technology Changing Market Paradigms? at the FIA Law & Compliance Division Conference in Oxen Hill, Maryland.

· Friday, April 25, 12:00 p.m. – CFTC Commissioner Kristin N. Johnson to address “Clearing the Way to the Future: How Is Technology Changing Market Paradigms?” at the FIA L&C 2025 in Oxen Hill, Maryland.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

FINRA

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Housing Finance Agency

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

· Tuesday, April 22, 6:00 p.m. – FTC Chair Andrew Ferguson will be the keynote speaker at the IAPP Global Privacy Summit 2025 in Washington, D.C.

· Wednesday, April 23 – FTC Chair Andrew Ferguson will speak at the Semafor World Economy Summit 2025 in Washington, D.C.

Farm Credit Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit Insurance Corporation

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Small Business Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

· Monday – Saturday, April 21 – 25 – The Spring Meetings of the World Bank and International Monetary Fund will be held in Washington, D.C. The full agenda can be seen HERE.

North American Securities Administrators Association

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

· Monday, April 21, 3:00 p.m. – The Institute for International Finance co-hosts with the World Bank a Digital Trust & Quantum Readiness Roundtable in Washington, D.C.

· Tuesday, April 22, 2:00 p.m. – the Institute for International Finance hosts a Cyber Security Roundtable in Washington, D.C.

· Wednesday, April 23, 10:00 a.m. – US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will give remarks and participate in a conversation at the Institute for International Finance conference (virtual).

· Thursday, April 24, 9:00 a.m. – The Institute for International Finance will host its 2025 IIF Sustainable Finance Roundtable in Washington, D.C.

Think Tanks and Other Events

· Friday, April 25, 10:00 a.m. – European Central Bank Supervisory Board Chair Claudia Buch will speak at the Brookings Institution on “Safeguarding the Stability of the Global Banking System.”

Francis Kelly 4/21/25 Francis Kelly 4/21/25

The Global Week Ahead

The IMF-World Bank Spring Meetings Take Center Stage, Vice President Vance Visits India, Bilateral Trade Negotiations Continue in Washington, and the G7 and G20 Meet on the Sidelines of the IMF/World Bank meetings

April 20 - 27, 2025

A good portion of the world hopefully enjoyed a peaceful Easter holiday today, and many are taking the week for spring vacation. However, in Washington, Easter weekend was the quiet before the economic storm as the World Bank and International Monetary Fund (WB/IMF) are holding their annual Spring meetings. The nation’s capital will be filled with finance ministers and central bankers from around the world (good luck getting restaurant reservations and avoiding driving downtown – the traffic jams during WB/IMF weeks are epic).

But unlike most World Bank/IMF meetings, a good number of trade ministers will also be in Washington this week, seeking to work out bilateral trade deals with the US. We are aware of meetings between US officials and representatives of Thailand, India, and Malaysia, and suspect more meetings are being arranged as we write this note.

As tariff negotiations ramp up, we will be watching for the WB/IMF annual economic report on Tuesday. This report will likely help set the tone for the week and likely point to their expectation of significant economic disruption as a result of the Trump tariffs. Both the G7 and G20 will be meeting on the sidelines of the WB/IMF meetings, and tariffs will be the paramount issue of discussion.

Also this week, US Vice President J.D. Vance will visit India for four days starting Monday. Vance will meet with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Monday, and trade, mutual defense, and security issues will be on the agenda. Modi will then travel to Saudi Arabia on Tuesday for bilateral meetings with Saudi Arabia’s Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud to discuss both trade and a number of other issues of interest to India, including the US-Iran nuclear talks, the Ukraine peace talks, and relations with China.

Looking at the global economic radar screen, the WB/IMF meetings dominate the week. But there are several important economic reports worth watching. Global PMIs will be out on Wednesday, giving markets a slightly clearer sense of how tariffs might be disrupting markets.

In the US, markets are watching for the Beige Book release along with durable goods orders and housing market data. In Asia, aside from Japan’s CPI numbers, China will announce the 1-year and 5-year loan rates. In Europe, the ifo Survey in Germany and the consumer confidence reports for the Eurozone and the UK are out this week.

Below is what else we are watching around the world in the coming week:

Sunday, April 20, 2025

Global

· Today is Easter Sunday in the Western Christian world.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· NASA’s Lucy mission, a robotic spacecraft, is expected to pass the main belt asteroid 52246 Donaldjohanson on its way to the Trojan asteroids that share Jupiter’s orbit.

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· China Loan Prime Rate 1Y & 5Y (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel GDP Growth Annualized 3rd Est Q4

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, April 21, 2025

Global

· Financial markets in Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy are closed for the Easter Monday holiday.

· The World Bank/IMF Spring meetings begin in Washington, D.C.

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open briefing on the United Nations Integrated Office in Haiti (BINUH) followed by consultations.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir will begin his visit to the United States with stops in Miami, New York, and Washington, D.C.

· Thailand will send a trade delegation to Washington to discuss tariffs.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee is interviewed on CNBC.

· USA CB Leading Index (March)

· Colombia ISE Economic Activity (February)

· Costa Rica Balance of Trade (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· US Vice President JD Vance will begin a four-day visit to India, which will include talks with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Their discussions are likely to focus on a proposed bilateral trade pact and American "reciprocal" tariffs, among other issues of mutual interest. Accompanied by his wife Usha, the first Indian American and Hindu second lady of the United States, and their children, Vance will visit the tourist cities of Agra and Jaipur as well as the capital, New Delhi.

· The Annual Philippine-US military exercises (Balikatan 2025) begin in the Philippines.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Indonesia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)

· Pakistan Consumer Confidence (March)

· Kazakhstan Business Confidence Q1

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· In London, Gatwick airport operations staff continue their industrial action, likely to increase disruption for travelers returning from Easter breaks.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Turkey Central Government Debt (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· In Egypt, the Sham Ennesim festival is celebrated marking the start of spring.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel GDP Growth Annualized 3rd Est Q4/ M1 Money Supply (March)

· Lebanon Inflation Rate (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Egypt Current Account Q4

· Angola Wholesale Prices (February)

Tuesday, April 22, 2025

Global

· The IMF/World Economic presents its joint Economic Outlook report.

· IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings are being held in Washington, D.C.

· G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors will meet in Washington, D.C.

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open briefing on Colombia, followed by consultations.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Chile's President Gabriel Boric will make a state visit to Brazil..

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson will give speech entitled “Economic Mobility and the Dual Mandate” at the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Economic Mobility Summit, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.

· Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker participates in fireside chat on how economic mobility impacts regional economies and can promote local growth before the Economic Mobility Summit sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

· Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari participates in a moderated question-and-answer session before the U.S. Chamber of Commerce Global Summit.

· Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin participates in fireside chat, “Macro and Micro Economic Forces Shaping our Future" before the RVA Big Dipper Innovation Summit.

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana Kugler speaks on “Transmission of Monetary Policy" before the University of Minnesota Heller-Hurwicz Economics Institute (HHEI) Spring 2025 Roundtable.

· Canada PPI (March)/ Raw Materials Prices (March)

· USA Redbook (April/19)/ Fed Jefferson Speech/ / Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (April)/ Richmond Fed Services Revenues Index (April)/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index (April)/ Money Supply (March)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (April/18)/

· Argentina Consumer Confidence (April)/ Economic Activity (February)

· Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi begins a two-day visit to Saudi Arabia.

· In Australia, early voting begins in the country’s federal elections, which are held on May 3. Polls leading up to the race had pointed to a potential minority government, where neither party achieves the 76 seats needed to govern, but the incumbent center-left Labor Party, led by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, has gained momentum during the campaign, improving his chances of forming a government.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea PPI (March)

· Taiwan Export Orders (March)/ Unemployment Rate (March)

· Hong Kong Unemployment Rate (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov meets with Uzbekistan President Mirziyoyev and Foreign Minister Saido in Tashkent.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Executive Board member Luis de Guindos will give remarks at the MIT/ICADE Finance Club in Madrid, Spain.

· Turkey Consumer Confidence (April)

· Euro Area ECB Survey of Monetary Analysts & Forecasters/ Government Budget & Debt to GDP 2024/ ECB Knot Speech/ Consumer Confidence Flash (April)/ ECB Guindos Speech

· Poland Corporate Sector Wages (March)/ Employment Growth (March)/ Industrial Production (March)/ PPI (March)

· Spain Balance of Trade (February)/ Consumer Confidence (March)

· Great Britain BoE Breeden Speech

· Slovenia Unemployment Rate (February)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Imports/ Export/ Balance of Trade (March)/ Inflation Expectations (April)

· Kuwait Inflation Rate (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Kenyan President William Ruto will visit China through April 26.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (February)

Wednesday, April 23, 2025

Global

· The IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings are being held in Washington, D.C.

· G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors meet in Washington, D.C.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The Institute of International Finance holds its Global Outlook Forum in Washington, D.C. alongside the IMF/World Bank meetings.

Economic Reports/Events –

· US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will give remarks and participate in a conversation at the Institute for International Finance conference (virtual).

· Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago president and chief executive Austan Goolsbee delivers opening remarks in a virtual presentation at the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s 2025 Economic Mobility Summit.

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller and Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President Alberto Musalem give opening remarks before a “Fed Listens" event hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

· Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Hammack speaks before the Money Marketeers of New York University.

· SA MBA Mortgage Market Index (April/18)/ S&P Global Services/ Composite/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (April)/ New Home Sales (March)/ EIA Crude Oil/ Gasoline Stocks Change (April/18)/ Fed Beige Book/ Building Permits (March)/ Building Permits (March)

· Mexico Retail Sales (February)

· Canada New Housing Price Index (March)

· Colombia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)

· Argentina Retail Sales (February)

· Paraguay Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· In Singapore, the nine-day election campaign begins in advance of the May 3 election.

· The Shanghai Auto Show begins – the world’s biggest – and runs for ten days.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea Consumer Confidence (April)

· New Zealand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)/ Credit Card Spending (March)

· Australia S&P Global Services/ Composite/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (April)

· Japan Jibun Bank Services/ Composite/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (April)/ Tertiary Industry Index (February)

· Malaysia Inflation Rate (March)

· Indonesia HSBC Services/ Composite/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (April)/ Loan Growth (March)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Deposit & Lending Facility Rate (April)

· Singapore Inflation Rate (March)

· Taiwan Industrial Production (March)/ Retail Sales (March)/ M2 Money Supply (March)

· Hong Kong Inflation Rate (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The Russian-Iranian Commission on Trade and Economic Cooperation meets in Moscow.

· EU Defense Commissioner Andrius Kubilius will meet with South Korea's minister for the Defense Acquisition Program Administration, Seok Jong-gun, in Brussels, Belgium.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Bank of England chief economist and executive director for monetary analysis Huw Pill speaks at Leeds University Business School.

· European Central Bank Executive Board member Piero Cipollone will participate on a panel discussion entitled “Tokenization and the Financial System: Adapting to the New Landscape” during the IMF/WB Spring Meetings in Washington D.C.

· European Central Bank Board member Philip R. Lane will participate on a panel entitled “Central Bankers’ Dilemmas Amid Changing Global Liquidity conditions” at IIF Global Outlook Forum “Forging Growth in a Time of Transition” during the IMF Spring Meetings in Washington D.C.

· eat Britain Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks (March)/ S&P Global Services/ Composite/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (April)/ BoE Bailey Speech/ BoE Breeden Speech

· France HCOB Services/ Composite/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (April)

· Germany HCOB Services/ Composite/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (April)

· Euro Area HCOB Services/ Composite/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (April)/ Balance of Trade (February)/ Construction Output (February)/ ECB Lane Speech/ ECB Cipollone Speech

· Poland Retail Sales (March)/ M3 Money Supply (March)

· Slovenia Consumer Confidence (April)

· Russia Corporate Profits (February)/ Industrial Production (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Unemployment Rate (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· French President Emmanuel Macron will visit Madagascar and partake in the fifth summit of the Indian Ocean Commission.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Inflation Rate (March)

Thursday, April 24, 2025

Global

· The IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings are being held in Washington, D.C.

· G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors are meeting in Washington, D.C.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The Trump Administration is hoping to finalize a deal with Ukraine for access to critical minerals.

· Malaysian Trade Minister Zafrul meets US Trade Representative Jamison Greer in Washington.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari participates in a moderated question-and-answer session before the University of Minnesota College of Science and Engineering event, “Innovating the Future: Perspectives on Science, Engineering and the Economy."

· Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (April)

· Chile PPI (March)

· Mexico Mid-month Inflation Rate (April)

· Canada Average Weekly Earnings (February)

· USA Initial Jobless Claims (April/19)/ Existing Home Sales (March)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (April/18)/ Kansas Fed Composite & Manufacturing Index (April)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (April/24)/ Fed Balance Sheet (April/23)

· Paraguay PPI (March)

· El Salvador Balance of Trade (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· China marks the National Day of Space Flight, on the day in 1970 when the country launched its first man-made earth satellite, Dongfanghong-1.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea Business Confidence (April)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1

· New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (April)

· Japan Foreign Bond Investment (April/19)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (April/19)

· Singapore URA Property Index Q1

· Australia RBA Bulletin

· Thailand New Car Sales (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will meet British Prime Minister Keir Starmer in London, United Kingdom, on the sidelines of the Energy Security Summit co-hosted by the United Kingdom and the International Energy Agency through April 25..

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board member Philip R. Lane will participate in a panel session at the Peterson Institute (PIIE) Webcast “Review of Monetary Policy Strategy by Central Banks”.

· European Central Bank Board Member Patrick Montagne will participate on a panel at the symposium “A Franco-German Tandem? Insights from History and Future Challenges for the Banking Systems in France and Germany” jointly organized by the Institute for Banking and Financial History (IBF), the House of Finance at Goethe University Frankfurt and in cooperation with Deutsch-Französische Gesellschaft Frankfurt am Main at the invitation of ODDO BHF in Frankfurt, Germany.

· European Central Bank Board member Sharon Donnery will give introductory remarks and participate on a panel discussion at the Institute of International Finance (IIF) roundtable, "The Future of Financial Global Policymaking" in Washington D.C., United States of America.

· European Union New Car Registrations (March)

· France Consumer Confidence (April)

· Spain PPI (March)

· Turkey Business Confidence (April)/ Capacity Utilization (April)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April/18)

· Germany Ifo Business Climate (April)/ Ifo Current Conditions (April)/ Ifo Expectations (April)

· Poland Unemployment Rate (March)

· Slovenia Business Confidence (April)

· Ireland Wholesale Prices (March)

· Great Britain CBI Business Optimism Index Q2/ CBI Industrial Trends Orders (April)

· Euro Area ECB Lane Speech/ ECB Montagner Speech/ ECB Donnery Speech

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)

· Kuwait M2 Money Supply (March)/ Private Bank Lending (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky visits South Africa..

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa PPI (March)

Friday, April 25, 2025

Global

· IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings are being held in Washington, D.C.

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations (Syria).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Brazil IPCA mid-month CPI (April)

· Mexico Economic Activity (February)

· Canada Retail Sales (February)/ Manufacturing Sales MoM Prel (March)/ Budget Balance (February)

· USA Michigan Consumer Sentiment (April)/ Michigan Consumer Expectations (April)/ Michigan Current Conditions (April)/ Michigan Inflation Expectations (April)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (April/25)

· Brazil Federal Tax Revenues (January)/ Federal Tax Revenues (February)/ Federal Tax Revenues (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Anzac Day in Australia and New Zealand, honoring the anniversary of the Gallipoli landings in 1915 during World War I.

· The Marshall Islands holds a constitutional referendum.

· Today is Military Foundation day in North Korea.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Japan Tokyo CPI (April)/ Coincident Index (February)/ Leading Economic Index (February)

· Indonesia M2 Money Supply (March)

· Thailand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)

· Malaysia Coincident Index (February)/ Leading Index (February)

· Singapore Industrial Production (March)

· Hong Kong Business Confidence Q2

· India Bank Loan Growth (April/11)/ Deposit Growth (April/11)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April/18)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board member Claudia Buch will give introductory remarks and participate on a panel discussion at the Brookings Institution in Washington D.C.

· Great Britain Gfk Consumer Confidence (April)/ Car Production (March)/ Retail Sales (March)

· Hungary Unemployment Rate (March)

· France Business Confidence (April)/ Business Climate Indicator (April)

· Slovenia Tourist Arrivals (March)

· Russia Interest Rate Decision/ CBR Press Conference

· Turkey MPC Meeting Summary

· Euro Area ECB Buch Speech/ ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Saturday, April 26, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, April 27, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Venezuela will hold parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Canada General Elections

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba will visit Vietnam and the Philippines through April 30.

Economic Reports/Events –

· China Industrial Profits (YTD) (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Francis Kelly 4/18/25 Francis Kelly 4/18/25

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

The Senate Confirms Atkins as SEC Chair, Fed Governor Bowman Breezes Through Her Supervisory Confirmation Hearing, and Washington Goes Quiet in Advance of Easter

April 14 - 18, 2025

The Masters golf tournament was this weekend (what a thrilling ending!), and Congress has fled Washington for a two-week recess — all the signs that Easter is almost here and spring has truly arrived.

After an action-packed 100 days in session, Congress left town Friday for a two-week Easter recess. They will be back the week of April 28th. Looking at the regulatory agenda and events for the coming week, there is not much happening. Acting Comptroller of the Currency Rodney Hood will be speaking at the Exchequer Club this week and there are several Federal Reserve Governors speaking this week, most notably Fed Chair Jay Powell speaking at the Economic Club of Chicago on Wednesday.

Looking at what happened last week, the Senate confirmed Paul Atkins to be Chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission. Jonathan Gould, the Comptroller of the Currency nominee, almost got his Senate vote but an elongated vote on the new Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Dan “Razin” Caine, bumped Gould’s nomination until the last week of April.

Also last week, Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman had her confirmation hearing before the Senate Banking Committee. Despite tough questions from Democrats on her views of regulation overall, Bowman breezed through her hearing, impressing members with her knowledge and confidence. Of note, Bowman told the committee she intends to bring a cost-benefit analysis to new banking rules and that regulators should be aligned in their goals for regulating the financial system.

Meanwhile, DOGE arrived at the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation to review the agency's budget and efficiency. Reports suggest the FDIC is considering reducing staff by as much as 20%.

Finally, we note that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent spoke of his intention to bring sweeping changes to bank oversight. He made clear he supports smaller capital requirements and a lighter-touch regulatory approach.

Below is what else we are watching in the Washington financial regulatory world this coming week:

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

The Senate is in recess until April 28.

House of Representatives

The House of Representatives is in recess until April 28.

Federal Department/Regulatory Agency Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

Monday, April 14, 1:00 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech on the economic outlook at the Economic Outlook with Chris Waller Event, hosted by the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) Society of St. Louis, St. Louis, Missouri.
Tuesday, April 15, 7:10 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook gives remarks at the acceptance of the 2025 Distinguished Alumna Award at the Cal Alumni Club of Washington, D.C. Annual Reception, Washington, D.C.
Wednesday, April 16, 1:30 p.m. (Chicago) – Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome H. Powell gives a speech on the economic outlook at the Economic Club of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois.
Thursday, April 17, 11:45 a.m.—Federal Reserve Board Michael S. Barr will give a speech on Cybersecurity in the Banking System at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs 2025 State-of-the-Field Conference on Cyber Risk to Financial Stability, New York, New York.
Friday, April 18, 8:00 a.m. – Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary C. Daly will participate in a conversation at the University of California Berkeley Fisher Center for Real Estate & Urban Economics.

U.S. Treasury Department

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Commerce

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Housing and Urban Development

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

Wednesday, April 16, 12:00 p.m. – Acting Comptroller of the Currency Rodney Hood will speak at the Exchequer Club in Washington, D.C.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

Thursday, April 17, 10:00 a.m. – The NCUA Board will meet. The agenda of issues being considered includes a board briefing on the Interagency Rule, Temporary Exceptions to Financial Institution Reform, Recovery, and Enforcement Act Appraisal Requirements in Areas Affected by California Wildfires and Straight-Line Winds. They will also be briefed on the NCUA’s Voluntary Separation Programs.

FINRA

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Housing Finance Agency

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit Administration

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit Insurance Corporation

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Small Business Administration

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

Monday & Tuesday April 14 – 15 – The American Bankers Association and the National Bankers Association hold the MDI Partnership Summit in Washington, D.C.

Tuesday, April 15, 1:00 p.m. – SIFMA will offer a member briefing updating them on policy issues of interest and concern in Washington.

Think Tanks and Other Events

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Francis Kelly 4/13/25 Francis Kelly 4/13/25

The Global Week Ahead

Trump’s Tariffs Continue to Dominate Markets and Geopolitics, Chinese President Xi Travels Embarks on Asia Tour, The ECB Decides on Interest Rates, and Fed Chair Powell Talks Gives Speech on the Economic Outlook

April 13 - 20, 2025

It was another wild week for global markets in the wake of President Trump’s global tariff plan after he called a 90-day time-out on their implementation while raising tariffs on China to 145%. While this coming week would normally be a quiet week for markets in advance of the Easter holiday, everyone is bracing for another wild week of high-level bilateral meetings and likely new announcements.

Drilling into the week ahead, we are going to be watching the meeting between Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and President Trump on Thursday to discuss prospects for a trade deal with the EU. Additionally, we note there are unconfirmed reports US Treasury Scott Bessent may meet with UK Finance Minister Rachel Reeves this week, too, to discuss a possible US-UK trade deal. Bessent is scheduled to travel to Argentina on Monday to meet with President Javier Milei as Argentia is likely to sign a new deal with the IMF on financing assistance, further boosting Milei’s economic reform policies.

While all this going on, Chinese President Xi Jinping will travel to Vietnam, Malaysia, and Cambodia for his first foreign visits of the year. Trade relations are expected to be the primary point of discussion in the wake of the Trump tariffs – especially on Vietnam and Cambodia which got hit with tariffs of 46% and 49% respectively.

Looking at the global economic radar screen for the coming week, it will be a relatively light economic reporting week. Markets, however, will be most focused on central bank decisions coming from the European Central Bank and the Bank of Canada.

In the US, we will see the release of Q1 GDP, retail sales figures, industrial production for March and jobless claims on Friday. But perhaps the most keenly watched economic data point this week will be Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell’s speech at the Economic Club of Chicago on Wednesday as well as speech by a number of regional Federal Reserve Presidents.

In Asia, Japan releases its March CPI on Friday while China’s Q1 GDP as well as March trade balance figures for March are out Monday.

In Europe, the UK labor market indicators are out Tuesday and March CPI is out on Wednesday. Germany sees the ZEW Survey for April out on Tuesday.

Below is what else we are watching around the world in the coming week:

Sunday, April 13, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Ecuador holds its 2nd round of presidential elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Beijing hosts the world’s first half marathon featuring both human and humanoid robot runners at the Chinese capital’s artificial intelligence hub.

Economic Reports/Events –

· China New Yuan Loans (March)/ M2 Money Supply (March)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (March)/ Total Social Financing (March)

· Indonesia Motorbike Sales (March)

· Pakistan Consumer Confidence (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· EU Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic will travel to Washington to hold new talks aimed at resolving EU-U.S. trade tensions.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· India will launch joint military exercises with 10 African states located along the continent's eastern coast off the coast of Tanzania.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, April 14, 2025

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the United Nations Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO). In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a TCC meeting on the United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS).

· OPEC releases its monthly Oil Market Report.

· There will be a BRICS Agriculture Working Group meeting in Brasilia, Brazil through April 15.

· There will be a BRICs Meeting of Senior Energy Officials (virtual) through April 15.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· President Donald Trump hosts Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele at the White House.

· U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will meet with Argentina's President Javier Milei and local businesspeople in Buenos Aires, Argentina.

· The U.S. Federal Trade Commission begins opening arguments in the trial seeking to unwind Meta’s purchase of Instagram.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech on the economic outlook at the Economic Outlook with Chris Waller Event, hosted by the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) Society of St. Louis, St. Louis, Missouri.

· Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin speaks on "Driving Through the Economic Fog" before the Greater Greer Chamber of Commerce.

· Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic speaks on monetary policy in a moderated conversation hosted by Emory University.

· Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker will speak the Villanova Univeristy School of Business.

· Canada New Motor Vehicle Sales (February)/ Wholesale Sales (February)

· USA Consumer Inflation Expectations (March)

· Paraguay Consumer Confidence (March)

· Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Chinese President Xi kicks begins a tour to Vietnam, Malaysia and Cambodia that ends on Friday. The trip comes at a critical time for both China and Southeast Asia, with Vietnam and Cambodia among the countries hit hardest by the tariffs Trump announced on April 2. Malaysia, meanwhile, is this year's ASEAN chair, leading the bloc's response to Washington's measures.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Composite & Services NZ PCI (March)/ Electronic Retail Card Spending (March)/ Visitor Arrivals (February)

· Singapore Central Bank interest rate decision/GDP Growth Rate Q1

· China Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)

· Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)/ Car Sales (March)

· Japan Capacity Utilization (February)/ Industrial Production (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU Foreign Affairs Council meets in Luxembourg. Ministers are expected to discuss the situation in Ukraine, Syria, Gaza, and Iran. They will also talk about EU-Africa relations, the Western Balkans and how to engage further in the Balkans.

· There will be an information meeting of EU Social Affairs Ministers through April 15 in Warsaw, Poland.

· The 1st EU-Palestine High-Level Political Dialogue in Luxembourg. The gathering, led by the High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Kaja Kallas, and the Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Palestinian Authority, Mohammad Mustafa. The Commission will be represented by Commissioner for the Mediterranean, Dubravka Šuica and Commissioner for Equality, Preparedness and Crisis Management Hadja Lahbib. This the first ever meeting of EU and Palestinian leaders at this level and they are expected to discuss the situation in Gaza, the unfolding situation in the West Bank, and prospects for a two-state solution.

· The Fourth Accession Conference with Albania will be held in Luxembourg. The meeting will serve to open negotiations with Albania on Cluster 2 ‘Internal market’, including Chapters 1 (free movement of goods), 2 (freedom of movement of workers), 3 (right of establishment and freedom to provide services), 4 (free movement of capital), 6 (company law), 7 (intellectual property law), 8 (competition policy), 9 (financial services) and 28 (consumer and health protection).

· Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov will take part in the Third Meeting of National Coordinators of the Group of Friends in Defense of the United Nations Charter” in Moscow.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Hungary Construction Output (February)

· Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (March)

· Turkey Current Account (February)/ Auto Production (March)/ Auto Sales (March)

· Ukraine Balance of Trade (February)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Inflation Rate (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Egypt Current Account Q4

· South Africa SACCI Business Confidence (February & March)

· Angola Wholesale Prices (February)

Tuesday, April 15, 2025

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the Middle East (Yemen).

· There will be a BRICS Climate Finance Meeting (virtual).

· There will be a BRICS meeting on the global re-insurance landscape (virtual) through April 16.

· The International Energy Agency (IEA) Monthly Oil Market Report is published.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· In Peru, former president Ollanta Humala and his wife, Nadine Heredia, accused of money laundering, set to hear their sentence.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook gives remarks at the acceptance of the 2025 Distinguished Alumna Award at the Cal Alumni Club of Washington, D.C. Annual Reception, Washington, D.C.

· Canada Housing Starts (March)/ Inflation Rate (March)/ CPI Median (March)/ CPI Trimmed-Mean (March)/ Manufacturing Sales (February)

· USA NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (April)/ Import & Export Prices (March)/ Redbook (April/12)/ Fed Barkin Speech/ NOPA Crush Report/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (April/11)

· Colombia Industrial Production (February)/ Retail Sales (February)

· El Salvador Inflation Rate (March)

· Peru GDP Growth Rate (February)/ Unemployment Rate (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· In North Korea, the country celebrates the Day of the Sun, marking the birthday of the country’s first leader Kim Il Sung.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Food Inflation (March)/ Global Dairy Trade Price Index (April/15)

· Indonesia Consumer Confidence (March)/ Tourist Arrivals (January)/ Tourist Arrivals (February)

· India WPI Food Index/ Fuel/ Inflation/ Manufacturing (March)/ Inflation Rate (March)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)

· Philippines Consumer Confidence Q1/ Cash Remittances (February)

· Kazakhstan Industrial Production (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· The European Central Bank President will host an informal dinner and exchange of views of the Council with the President of the European Council António Costa in Frankfurt.

· Great Britain BRC Retail Sales Monitor (March)/ Unemployment Rate (February)/ Employment Change (February)/ HMRC Payrolls Change (March)/ Claimant Count Change (March)

· Germany Wholesale Prices (March)/ ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (April)/ ZEW Current Conditions (April)

· Romania Industrial Production (February)

· France Inflation Rate (March)/ IEA Oil Market Report

· Slovakia Inflation Rate (March)

· Poland Inflation Rate (March)

· Euro Area Industrial Production (February) / ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (April)

· Ireland Balance of Trade (February)

· Serbia Building Permits (February)

· Turkey Budget Balance (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Bahrain hosts the Smart Cities Summit through April 16.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (March)/ Wholesale Prices (March)

· Jordan Inflation Rate (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Gold Production (February)/ Mining Production (February)/ SARB Monetary Policy Review

· Angola Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)/ M3 Money Supply (March)

· Nigeria Food Inflation (March)/ Inflation Rate (March)

Wednesday, April 16, 2025

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS). In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultation, on the Great Lakes region.

· the World Trade Organization publishes its annual Global Trade Outlook and Statistics, analyzing recent global trade developments up to the fourth quarter of 2024 and forecasting GDP in 2025

· There will be a BRICS Disaster Management Working Group meeting through April 17 in Brasilia, Brazil.

· There will be a meeting of BRICS Transport Working Group in Brasilia, Brazil through April 17.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome H. Powell gives a speech on the economic outlook at the Economic Club of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois.

· Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Hammack speaks on "Fed 101" and participates in a moderated question-and-answer session before event, "Columbus Metropolitan Club Weekly Forum: Insights from Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack"

· Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank President Jeffrey Schmid speaks on the economy and community banking with Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Lorie Logan before a Global Perspectives event hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and the Dallas Citizens Council.

· USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (April/11)/ MBA Purchase Index (April/11)/ MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (April/11)/ Retail Sales (March)/ Capacity Utilization (March)/ Industrial Production (March)/ Manufacturing Production (March)/ Business Inventories (February)/ NAHB Housing Market Index (April)/ Retail Inventories Ex Autos (February)/ EIA Crude Oil/ Gasoline Stocks Change (April/ Net Long-term TIC Flows (February)/ Foreign Bond Investment (February)/ Overall Net Capital Flows (February)

· Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision & Monetary Policy Report & Press Conference

· Colombia Consumer Confidence (March)

· Argentina Balance of Trade (March)/ Leading Indicator (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· China’s Defense Minister Dong Jun will travel to Hanoi for meetings with Vietnam’s General Phan Van Giang. Together, they will watch the 38th joint naval patrol in the Gulf of Tonkin.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Bank of Korea Interest Rate Decision/South Korea Export & Import Prices (March)

· New Zealand Import/ Export/ Balance of Trade (March)

· Japan Reuters Tankan Index (April)/ Machinery Orders (February)

· Australia Westpac Leading Index (March)

· China House Price Index (March)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Industrial Production (March)/ Retail Sales (March)/ Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) (March)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Industrial Capacity Utilization Q1/ Unemployment Rate (March)

· Indonesia Retail Sales (February)

· India M3 Money Supply (April/04)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· There will be an informal meeting of EU gender equality ministers in Warsaw, Poland.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Great Britain Inflation Rate (March)/ Retail Price Index (March)

· Slovakia Inflation Rate (March)

· Euro Area Current Account (February)/ Core Inflation Rate (March)/ CPI (March)/ Inflation Rate (March)

· Italy Inflation Rate (March)/ Current Account (February)

· Ireland Residential Property Prices (February)

· Serbia Current Account (February)

· Poland Core Inflation Rate (March)

· Belarus Industrial Production (March)

· Russia PPI (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Oman Inflation Rate (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Retail Sales (February)

Thursday, April 17, 2025

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) and Libya sanctions.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· President Trump will meet with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni at the White House. They are expected to discuss Trump’s tariff regime toward the EU.

· Japan and the United States will hold their first round of high-level negotiations on U.S. tariffs in Washington.

· U.S. fees on Chinese-built and Chinese-operated ships will go into effect, although the extent of the fees is unclear given recent reconsideration in Washington.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Michael S. Barr will give a speech on Cybersecurity in the Banking System at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs 2025 State-of-the-Field Conference on Cyber Risk to Financial Stability, New York, New York.

· Canada CFIB Business Barometer (April)/ Foreign Securities Purchases (February)

· USA Housing Starts (March)/ Initial Jobless Claims (April/12)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (April/05)/ Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (April)/ Philly Fed CAPEX Index (April)/ Philly Fed Business Conditions (April)/ Philly Fed Employment (April)/ Philly Fed New Orders (April)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (April/11)/15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (April/17)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (April/18)/ Fed Balance Sheet (April/16)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board Junko Nakagawa gives a speech to local business leaders in Gunma, Japan.

· New Zealand Inflation Rate Q1

· Japan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)/ Foreign Bond Investment (April/12)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (April/12)/ BoJ Nakagawa Speech

· Singapore Non-Oil Exports (March)/ Balance of Trade (March)

· South Korea Interest Rate Decision

· Australia Employment Change (March)/ Unemployment Rate (March)/ Participation Rate (March)

· Kazakhstan Business Confidence Q1

· Sri Lanka Manufacturing PMI (March)/ Services PMI (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference

· Germany PPI (March)

· Switzerland Balance of Trade (March)

· Hungary Gross Wage (February)

· Greece Current Account (February)

· Turkey TCMB Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Borrowing & Lending Rate (April)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April/11)

· Ukraine Interest Rate Decision

· Euro Area Deposit Facility Rate/ / Marginal Lending Rate

· Spain Consumer Confidence (March)

· Belarus GDP (March)

· Russia GDP Growth Rate Q4

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Syria Independence Day, marking the day in 1946 when the country gained its independence from France.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Building Permits (February)

· Egypt Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Lending Rate

· Ghana PPI (March)

Friday, April 18, 2025

Global

· Today is Good Friday. Most financial markets in Europe and the Americas are closed.

· The United Nations is closed in observation of Good Friday.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· US Vice President J.D. Vance visits Italy and will meet with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni (a day after she meets with President Trump in Washington). Vance will also visit the Vatican for Good Friday ahead of Easter Sunday.

· Iran-US nuclear talks to resume (to be confirmed) in Oman.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary C. Daly will participate in a conversation at the University of California Berkeley Fisher Center for Real Estate & Urban Economics.

· Argentina Consumer Confidence (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Japan Inflation Rate (March)

· Malaysia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1

· India Foreign Exchange Reserves (April/11)/ Passenger Vehicles Sales (March)

· China FDI (YTD) (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Serbia’s new government takes office after mass protests forced the previous government to resign.

· In the UK a four-day strike begins by members of the union Unite over pay, pensions and conditions for 100 Red Handling staff, including baggage handlers and flight dispatchers, at Gatwick airport.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Italy Balance of Trade (February)/ Construction Output (February)

· Slovenia PPI (March)

· Slovakia Current Account (February)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel M1 Money Supply (March)/ Manufacturing PMI (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Saturday, April 19, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· In the US, thousands of demonstrators are expected to gather in Washington and other US cities to protest against President Donald Trump and his policies.

· Today is the 250th anniversary of the start of the American Revolution (the Battles of Lexington and Concord).

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, April 20, 2025

Global

· Today is Easter Sunday in the Western Christan world.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· NASA’s Lucy mission, a robotic spacecraft, is expected to pass the main belt asteroid 52246 Donaldjohanson on its way to the Trojan asteroids that share Jupiter’s orbit.

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· China Loan Prime Rate 1Y & 5Y (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel GDP Growth Annualized 3rd Est Q4

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Francis Kelly 4/11/25 Francis Kelly 4/11/25

The Global Week Ahead

Trump’s Tariffs Go Into Effect as China and EU Move to Retaliate, Netanyahu Meets with Trump on Iran and Tariffs, and Markets Look to Fed Minutes for Guidance

April 6 - 13, 2025

What a week the global markets had last week! And it is not over, as this coming week looks just as turbulent. President Trump’s new tariff regime will go into effect this week, and China’s retaliatory 34% tariffs will go into effect, too. EU trade ministers’ officials meet on Tuesday to consider the full impact of the Trump tariffs and likely move to institute their retaliatory tariffs.

We expect a number of bilateral meetings to be announced this week with the US as countries seek quick relief. Vietnam has already sent a delegation to Washington, and we will be watching closely for any announcements. Vietnam has a $124 billion trade deficit with the US, the second highest after China, and has been hit with a 46% tariff rate. The US is Vietnam’s largest export market.

With all this going on, the Ukraine Defense Contact Group (UDCG), which is comprised of 50 countries supporting Ukraine militarily and financially, will meet in Brussels. But for the first time, no senior US official will attend. The absence comes as President Trump continues to press Russia to agree to a cease-fire – an effort that saw Kirill Dmitriev, the head of Russia’s sovereign wealth fund, was taken off the US sanctions list so he could travel to Washington to meet with US officials to discuss the current peace proposal. The former Goldman Sachs banker has since told reporters he believes there will be further discussions this coming week between Washington and Moscow, but he gave no details in what form they will take.

Also this coming week, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is traveling to Washington for his second set of meetings this year with President Trump. The two leaders are expected to discuss the tariff situation, the situation in Gaza, and the policy coordination toward Iran.

We would also note that something else of significance is taking place in Washington this week: Tawain’s top national security official, Joseph Wu, is holding a secret meeting with senior US officials about the ongoing tensions with China. The US and Taiwan are terming the meetings as a “special channel” for Tawain and the US to discuss security issues.

Looking at the global economic radar screen this week, markets are looking to Wednesday’s release of the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee minutes for indications of what the Fed might do regarding the tariffs. Also out this week will be US CPI for March and the important University of Michigan consumer survey for April.

In Europe, European Central Bank officials will gather with EU Finance and economic ministers this week to discuss the economic impact of the tariffs. Also this week, the UK GDP for February is out on Friday, and Germany reports its March CPI numbers.

In Asia, Bank of Japan Governor Ueda will speak on Wednesday and likely reveal early views of the tariffs' impact. Meanwhile, China will report both CPI and PPI figures on Thursday.

Below is what else we are watching around the world in the coming week:

Sunday, April 6, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Brazilian right-wing supporters will demonstrate in Sao Paulo in support of former President Jair Bolsonaro.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Daylight Savings ends in Australia.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Vietnam Balance of Trade (March)/ Foreign Direct Investment (March)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Industrial Production (March)/ Inflation Rate (March)/ Retail Sales (March)/ Tourist Arrivals (March)

· Indonesia Motorbike Sales (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, April 7, 2025

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on UN Peacekeeping operations (HOMC).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· President Trump will meet with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House. In a statement, the Israeli Prime Minister said the two leaders will discuss “discuss the tariff issue, the efforts to return our hostages, Israel-Turkey relations, the Iranian threat and the battle against the International Criminal Court.”

· US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth travels to Panama for talks with Panama’s President Jose Raul Mulino.

· New session of Greenlandic Parliament (Inatsisartut) opens.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana D. Kugler will give a virtual lecture at Harvard University entitled “Inflation Dynamics and the Phillips Curve.”

· Chile Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)

· Mexico Auto Exports (March)/ Auto Production (March)

· Canada BoC Business Outlook Survey

· USA Consumer Credit Change (February)/ Used Car Prices (March)

· Costa Rica Inflation Rate (March)

· Colombia Inflation Rate (March)

· Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· ASEAN finance ministers and central bank chiefs will meet in Kuala Lumpur through April 10. They will seek to address economic challenges, including the impact of Trump's latest tariffs. The main meeting is set for Thursday and is expected to discuss regional financial integration and resilience amid escalating geopolitical tensions.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Japan Average Cash Earnings (February)/ Overtime Pay (February)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)/ Coincident Index Prel (February)/ Leading Economic Index Prel (February)

· Australia ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (March)

· Taiwan Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

· Hong Kong Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

· Singapore Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

· China Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

· Philippines Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

· Indonesia Tourist Arrivals (January & February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU Foreign Affairs Council (Trade) meets in Luxembourg to discuss President Trump’s tariffs and possible responses and retaliatory tariffs. They will also discuss ongoing trade issues with China.

· There will be an informal meeting of EU Culture and Media Ministers through April 8 in Warsaw, Poland.

· NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte travels to Tokyo, Japan for talks.

· Polish President Andrzej Duda visits Estonia for bilateral talks.

· Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov speaks at opening of TASS photo exhibition in Moscow. He then will give remarks later regarding the development of the Kaluga region.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Executive Board Member Piero Cipollone participates in Session 2 "Central bank money in a digital World: CBDCs" at conference "The interplay between tax and financial regulations in a new digital environment" organized by Banca d'Italia, Institute for Austrian and International Tax Law and Vienna University of Economics and Business in Rome, Italy.

· Germany Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)/ Industrial Production (February)

· Romania Retail Sales (February)/ Interest Rate Decision

· Great Britain Halifax House Price Index (March)/ BBA Mortgage Rate (March)

· Hungary Retail Sales (February)

· France Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

· Slovakia Retail Sales (February)

· Switzerland Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

· Euro Area Retail Sales (February)/ ECB Cipollone Speech

· Greece Balance of Trade (February)

· Ukraine Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

· Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

· Russia Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

· Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (March/28)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· French President Emmanuel Macron visits Cairo, Egypt for bilateral talks.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (March)

· Israel Interest Rate Decision/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)/ Consumer Confidence (March)

· Jordan GDP Growth Rate Q4/ PPI (February)

· Kuwait M2 Money Supply (February)/ Private Bank Lending (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

Tuesday, April 8, 2025

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the United Nations Interim Administration Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK).

· The Soyuz MS-27 spacecraft launches from the Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan to ISS with two Russians and one American.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The Central American Security Conference, organized by Panama and US Southern Command begins in Panama and goes through April 10. US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth will participate.

Economic Reports/Events –

· San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly participates in “The Economic Outlook and Work of the Federal Reserve" conversation hosted by the Brigham Young University Marriott School of Business.

· USA NFIB Business Optimism Index (March)/ Redbook (April/05)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (April/04)

· Chile Inflation Rate (March)

· Brazil Gross Debt to GDP (February)/ Nominal Budget Balance (February)/ Car Production (March)/ New Car Registrations (March)

· Canada Ivey PMI s.a (March)

· Uruguay Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· South Korea will announce the date of forthcoming snap elections.

· Vietnamese President Luong Cuong will pay a state visit to Laos through April 9.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand NZIER Business Confidence & Utilization Q1

· Japan Current Account (February)/ Bank Lending (March)/ Eco Watchers Survey Current & Outlook (March)

· Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (April)/ NAB Business Confidence (March)

· South Korea Current Account (February)

· Philippines Unemployment Rate (February)/ Industrial Production (February)

· Indonesia Inflation Rate (March)

· Taiwan Inflation Rate (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Indian Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will visit London for another round of free trade negotiations.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Executive Board Member Luis de Guindos gives the closing speech at the annual meeting of the Spanish Banking Association in Madrid, Spain. Later in the day, he will give the introductory statement at a Hearing on the digital euro before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) of the European Parliament in Brussels, Belgium.

· Bank of England Governor Clare Lombardelli takes part in a panel discussion with former Obama adviser Jason Furman on the divergence between British and American economic productivity at an event hosted by the Resolution Foundation think-tank in London.

· Ireland Construction PMI (March)/ Industrial Production (February)

· Hungary Inflation Rate (March)/ Budget Balance (March)

· France Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)/ Current Account (February)

· Euro Area ECB Guindos Speech/ ECB Cipollone Speech

· Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

· Kenya Interest Rate Decision

· Egypt Current Account Q4

· Tanzania Inflation Rate (March)

Wednesday, April 9, 2025

Global

· President Donald Trump’s announced trade tariffs are due to take effect at 12:01 a.m. Washington time.

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a private meeting on Somalia. .

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC) Conference begins in Tegucigalpa, Honduras.

· Union workers will begin a 36-hour long strike in Buenos Aires against President Javier Milei’s policies.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin participates in a conversation with the Economic Club of Washington.

· Federal Reserve’s FOMC Minutes released/USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (April/04)/ MBA Purchase Index (April/04)/ Wholesale Inventories (February)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (April/04)

· Brazil Bank Lending (February)/ Retail Sales (February)/ PPI (February)/ Retail Sales (February)

· Mexico Inflation Rate (March)

· Argentina Industrial Production (February)

· El Salvador PPI (March)

· Panama Current Account Q4

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The Asian Development Bank releases the latest edition of its widely followed economic publication, the Asian Development Outlook. The report will include growth forecasts for emerging economies in Asia this year and next

Economic Reports/Events –

· Bank of Japan Governor Kazuno Ueda gives a speech at the 100th Trustee Conference in Tokyo.

· Australia Building Permits (February)/ Private House Approvals (February)

· New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision

· Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (March)

· Indonesia RBI Interest Rate Decision/ Cash Reserve Ratio

· Japan Consumer Confidence (March)/ Machine Tool Orders (March)

· Thailand Consumer Confidence (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The 10th EU-Ukraine Association Council will meet in Brussels

· Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez visits Vietnam and China through April 11.

· The Chair and Vice-Chair of The European Parliament’s Delegation for Relations with the United States, together with the chairs of the committees on foreign affairs and international trade, will travel to Washington DC to meet with counterparts in the US Congress. They will discuss the situation in Ukraine and its impact on transatlantic relations, EU-US trade, and relations with China.

· The Delphi Economic Forum begins in Delphi, Greece and runs through April 12. A number of government officials, senior business executives, and central bankers are scheduled to speak.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Executive Board Member Piero Cipollone participates in a in policy panel 'Macro-Financial Stability Policy in a Fragmented World' at Bruegel's 20th anniversary event "Globalization and geo-economic fragmentation" organized together with De Nederlandsche Bank in Amsterdam, Netherlands.

· Romania Balance of Trade (February)

· Slovakia Balance of Trade (February)

· Hungary Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

· Euro Area ECB Cipollone Speech

· Russia GDP Growth Rate Q4

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· The US-MEAD Summit takes place in Abu Dhabi, UAE.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Business Confidence (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Thursday, April 10, 2025

Global

· G20 finance and central bank deputies two-day meeting begins in Johannesburg, South Africa.

· There will be a meeting of the BRICS Working Group on Security in the Use of Information and Communications Technologies (WGSICT) in Brasilia, Brazil through April 11.

Americas

· China’s 34% retaliatory tariffs against US imports take effect.

· A senior Ukrainian delegation is expected to travel to Washington to discuss a draft proposal granting the US access to critical minerals in Ukraine (to be confirmed).

Political/Social Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman will have her confirmation hearing to serve as Vice Chair for Supervision before the Senate Banking Committee.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan gives welcome remarks before hybrid Outlook for North American Trade and Immigration event hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

· Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee participates in a moderated question-and-answer session before the Economic Club of New York.

· Canada Building Permits (February)

· USA Inflation Rate (March)/ CPI (March)/ Initial Jobless Claims (April/05)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (April/04)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (April/10)/ WASDE Report/ Monthly Budget Statement (March)/ Fed Balance Sheet (April/09)

· Mexico Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

· Paraguay Balance of Trade (March)

· Ecuador Balance of Trade (February)

· Peru Balance of Trade (February)/ Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The Global Technology Summit begins in New Delhi.

Economic Reports/Events –

§ Reserve Bank of Australia governor Michele Bullock to speak at the Chief Executive Women Melbourne Annual Dinner in Melbourne, Australia.

§ South Korea Unemployment Rate (March)

· Japan Foreign Bond Investment (April/05)/ PPI (March)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (April/05)

· Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (April)/ RBA Bullock Speech

· China Inflation Rate (March)/ PPI (March)

· Philippines Interest Rate Decision

· Taiwan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)

· Kazakhstan PPI (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The UK-Germany-France led “Coalition of the Willing” will meet at NATO Headquarters. The coalition consists of those countries willing to militarily and financially support Ukraine.

· EU President Ursula von der Leyen will meet with Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal in Brussels.

· Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will conduct a state visit to South Africa.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch will give a
lecture at the SGH Warsaw School of Economics in Warsaw, Poland.

· European Central Bank Board Member Patrick Montagner will participate in a session "Adapting regulation and supervision to diversity in the EU banking system" at Eurofi High Level Seminar in Warsaw, Poland. Later in the day, he will participate in a session entitled “''Banking Union: combining EU and national interests."

· Bank of England deputy governor for financial stability Sarah Breeden speaks at Market News International connect event, UK Economic and Financial Stability Prospects in London.

· European Central Bank Board Member Anneli Tuominen will participate in apanel discussion "Priorities for the EU banking sector" at Eurofi High Level Seminar in Warsaw, Poland.

· European Central Bank Supervisory Board Member Sharon Donnery will give a speech at the Delphi Economic Forum X in Delphi, Greece.

· Great Britain RICS House Price Balance (March)

· Romania GDP Growth Rate Q4

· Euro Area ECB Montagner Speech/ ECB Tuominen Speech/ ECB Buch Speech/ ECB Donnery Speech/ ECOFIN Meeting/ Eurogroup Meeting

· Slovakia Industrial Production (February)

· Turkey Industrial Production (February)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April/04)

· Italy Industrial Production (February)

· Slovenia Industrial Production (February)

· Greece Inflation Rate (March)

· Ireland Inflation Rate (March)

· Serbia Interest Rate Decision

· Ukraine Inflation Rate (March)

· Belarus Inflation Rate (March)

· Switzerland SNB Moser Speech/ SNB Tschudin Speech

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Tesla will begin selling its cars in Saudi Arabia for the first time.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The International Court of Justice is set to hear arguments in a case filed by Sudan against the United Arab Emirates, in which Khartoum has accused the Gulf state of complicity in genocide.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Manufacturing Production (February)

· Egypt Inflation Rate (March)

· Mozambique Inflation Rate (March)

Friday, April 11, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem speaks on the U.S. economy and monetary policy and participates in moderated conversation before the Arkansas State Bank Department's 29th Annual Day with the Commissioner.

· New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams speaks on the economic outlook and monetary policy before the Puerto Rico Chamber of Commerce.

· Brazil Inflation Rate (March)/ IBC-BR Economic Activity (February)/ Business Confidence (April)

· Mexico Industrial Production (February)

· USA PPI (March) / Michigan Current Conditions Prel (April)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (April/11)

· Argentina Inflation Rate (March)

· Uruguay Industrial Production (February)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Business NZ PMI (March)

· Malaysia Industrial Production (February)/ Retail Sales (February)/ Unemployment Rate (February)

· Philippines Foreign Direct Investment (January)/ Business Confidence Q1

· Kazakhstan Interest Rate Decision

· India Industrial Production (February)/ Inflation Rate (March)/ Manufacturing Production (February)/ Bank Loan Growth (March/28)/ Deposit Growth (March/28)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April/04)

· Indonesia Car Sales (March)

· China Vehicle Sales (March)/ New Yuan Loans (March)/ M2 Money Supply (March)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (March)/ Total Social Financing (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The Eurogroup will meet in Warsaw, Poland. Leaders will discuss economic developments and euro area policy coordination and upcoming international meetings. There will also be an informal meeting of EU Economic and Financial Affairs Ministers through April 12.

· The Ukraine Defense Contact Group will meet at NATO Headquarters in Brussels. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is expected to skip the meeting in an unusual and widely noted move.

· The Council of Foreign Ministers of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) will meet in Kazakhstan. The CIS is made up of 12 former Soviet states: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, and Uzbekistan.

· IN Instanbul, the trial of Istanbul Mayor and national opposition leader Ekrem Imamoglu for various charges begins.

· Turkey will host the annual Antalya Diplomacy Forum in its Mediterranean resort city of Antalya through Sunday. Under the theme "Reclaiming Diplomacy in a Fragmented World.”

Economic Reports/Events –

· Germany Inflation Rate (March)/ Current Account (February)

· Romania Inflation Rate (March)/ Current Account (February)

· Great Britain Goods Trade Balance (February)/ Balance of Trade (February)/ GDP (February)/ Construction Output (February)/ Industrial Production (February)/ Manufacturing Production (February)/ NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (March)

· Hungary Industrial Production (February)

· Slovakia Construction Output (February)

· Spain Inflation Rate (March)

· Switzerland Consumer Confidence (March)

· Turkey Retail Sales (February)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)/ Auto Production & Sales (March)

· Euro Area ECB President Lagarde Speech/ ECOFIN Meeting

· Serbia Inflation Rate (March)

· Poland Balance of Trade (February)/ Current Account (February)

· Russia Balance of Trade (February)/ Current Account Q1/ Inflation Rate (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Angola Inflation Rate (March)

· South Africa SACCI Business Confidence (February & March)

Saturday, April 12, 2025

Global

· The Jewish holiday of Passover begins and goes through April 20.

· Today is Palm Sunday.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The Osaka Expo begins with Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba as well as the nation's emperor and empress are due to attend the opening ceremony. The Expo goes for six months and will showcase technologies and innovations from 165 countries and organizations.

Economic Reports/Events –

· China Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Gabon holds Presidential and Parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, April 13, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Ecuador holds its 2nd round of presidential elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Ecuador Presidential Election (2nd Round)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Beijing hosts the world’s first half marathon featuring both human and humanoid robot runners at the Chinese capital’s artificial intelligence hub.

Fulcrum Perspectives

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

Congress Returns to Work, HFSC Focuses on the Power of Proxy Advisors, Atkins Sworn in as SEC Chair, OCC Agenda Detailed, and Fed Releases Financial Stability Report

April 28 - May 2, 2025

The Global Week Ahead

Recommended Weekend Reads

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

The Global Week Ahead

Recommended Weekend Reads

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

The Global Week Ahead

Trump’s Tariffs Continue to Dominate Markets and Geopolitics, Chinese President Xi Travels Embarks on Asia Tour, The ECB Decides on Interest Rates, and Fed Chair Powell Talks Gives Speech on the Economic Outlook

April 13 - 20, 2025

Sunday, April 13, 2025

Monday, April 14, 2025

Tuesday, April 15, 2025

Wednesday, April 16, 2025

Thursday, April 17, 2025

Friday, April 18, 2025

Saturday, April 19, 2025

Sunday, April 20, 2025

Recommended Weekend Reads

Special Focus on the Trump Trade Wars and Their Possible Impacts on Global and US Markets, And A Look At India’s Role in Europe and the World

April 11 - 13, 2025

Trump’s Trade Wars: A Menu of Views and Possible Impacts

India’s Role in the Increasingly Turbulent World of Trade

The Global Week Ahead

Trump’s Tariffs Go Into Effect as China and EU Move to Retaliate, Netanyahu Meets with Trump on Iran and Tariffs, and Markets Look to Fed Minutes for Guidance

April 6 - 13, 2025

Sunday, April 6, 2025

Monday, April 7, 2025

Tuesday, April 8, 2025

Wednesday, April 9, 2025

Thursday, April 10, 2025

Saturday, April 12, 2025

Sunday, April 13, 2025

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