The Global Week Ahead
Could There Finally Be A Ceasefire in Gaza? Indian Prime Minister Modi Makes a Historic Visit to Ukraine, and Central Bankers Gather in Jackson Hole
August 18 - 25, 2024
The situation in the Middle East will continue to dominate the geopolitical outlook this week as negotiations seeking a ceasefire in Gaza, and the release of hostages held by Hamas appear to have gotten closer to an agreement. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken will travel to the region again this week – his ninth trip there this year – hoping to clinch a deal. But ongoing fighting between Hezbollah forces and Israeli forces intensified over the weekend and risks escalating into a far larger regional fight.
Meanwhile, the Democratic National Convention begins in Chicago. As many as 50,000 people are expected to participate. But the party nomination of Vice President Kamala Harris may be marred by widespread protests by activists opposed to the Biden Administration’s supportive policy for Israel in Gaza.
This coming week will mark a historic first: Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is expected to visit Kyiv, Ukraine to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Modi is seeking to play a role in helping to broker a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia, an effort that has been publicly encouraged by the US. Modi will also visit Poland, the first time an Indian Prime Minister has visited the nation in 40 years.
Another important diplomatic trip this week is Vietnam’s new leader, To Lam, making his first official visit to China and his first overseas visit as President. He will meet with President Xi Jinping, where the two leaders will likely finalize an important railroad deal and discuss ongoing tensions between the two nations over disputed territory in the South China Sea. Vietnam has been stepping up its international diplomatic and trade efforts this year, upgrading ties with the US, Japan, and India. But Vietnam also hosted Russian President Vladimir Putin in June, raising eyebrows in Tokyo, Washington, and Brussels.
Turning to the global markets and major economic events this coming week, markets will be laser-focused on Jackson Hole, Wyoming where the annual Kansas City Federal Reserve Conference will feature most of the leading international central bank chiefs. Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell will give a much-anticipated speech Friday and markets will be hoping for further indications of interest rate cuts being made at the next Federal Open Markets Committee meeting in September.
Also this week, both the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank will be releasing minutes from their last interest rate meetings. The ECB will also be releasing their consumer expectations survey on Friday.
This week’s other important releases this week include PPIs out of Germany, the UK, and Eurozone, while Japan releases CPI and July trade balance figures. Also of note in Japan this week, the Japanese Parliament (Diet) will hold a joint Lower House and Upper House Financial Affairs Committee hearing featuring Bank of Japan Governor Kajuo Ueda and Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki to discuss the Bank’s rate increase in July and what it might mean for Japan’s economy longer term.
Below is what else we are watching closely this coming week:
Sunday, August 18, 2024
Global
· Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· In Singapore, Prime Minister Lawrence Wong delivers the annual National Day Rally
speech, his inaugural address after taking office on May 15. He is Singapore’s fourth prime
minister and his becoming Prime Minister is the nation’s first leadership change in 20 years. He is expected to focus on plans to expand the social safety net in the country.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Russian President Vladimir Putin will visit Azerbaijan for talks with President Ilham Aliyev on how to improve the two nation’s strategic relationship. The two leaders are also expected to discuss the fragile settlement between Armenia and Azerbaijan following a 44-day war in 2020. But the major issue for Putin is to secure the Russian gas supplies to Azerbaijan.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Israel GDP Growth Annualized 1st Est Q2
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· The 44th Ordinary Summit of the Southern African Development Community Heads of State and Government meets in in Harare, Zimbabwe. The theme of the conference is “Promoting Innovation to unlock opportunities for sustained economic growth and development towards an Industrialised SADC”.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Monday, August 19, 2024
Global
· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL).
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· US Secretary of State Antony Blinken will return to the Middle East in a bid to finalize a cease-fire agreement in Gaza and the release of hostages held by Hamas. Blinken will mee with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and then may travel to Cairo, Egypt and Doha, Qatar in a bid to finalize the deal.
· The US Democratic Party Presidential Convention begins in Chicago, Illinois and runs through August 22.
· Today is San Martin Day in Argentina, a national holiday. Markets are closed. But Unionized pilots flying for Aerolineas Argentinas are expected to strike and stage demonstrations at Argentina's commercial airports through Aug. 30.
· The US Congress continues to be on August recess. They return to work September 9.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives welcoming remarks at the 2024 Summer Workshop on Money, Banking, Payments, and Finance which is hosted by the Federal Reserve Board in Washington, D.C.
· Chile Current Account Q2/ GDP Growth Rate Q2
· USA Fed Waller Speech
· Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Japan and India will hold “2+2” talks between Japanese Defense Minister Minoru Kihara, Japanese Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa, and Indian Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar and Defense Minister Rajnath Singh in New Delhi. The two countries are looking to enhance mutual security ties and defense equipment sharing.
· Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim will visit India for talks with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. This is the first time Modi and Anwar have met since Anwar became prime minister. The two are expected to sign a number of trade agreements.
· Today is Revolution Commemoration Day in Vietnam, marking the day in 1945 when the revolution led by Ho Chi Minh ended Japanese occupation.
Economic Reports/Events –
· New Zealand Composite & Services NZ PCI (July)
· Japan Machinery Orders (June)
· Thailand GDP Growth Rate Q2
· Malaysia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· The Deutsche Bundesbank, Foundations of Law and Finance, Frankfurt School of Finance & Management and CEPR are co-sponsoring a conference on Regulating Financial Markets in Frankfurt, Germany.
· Spain Balance of Trade (June)/ Consumer Confidence (July)
· Turkey Auto Production (July)/ Auto Sales (July)
· Slovakia Unemployment Rate (July)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Qatar M2 Money Supply (June)/ M2 Money Supply (July)/ Total Credit Growth (June)/ Total Credit Growth (July)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· The Kenya Aviation Workers Union have cancelled their plans to begin strike action to denounce an investment by India's Adani Airport Holdings that would see the group manage the operations of Nairobi's Jomo Kenyatta International Airport.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Angola Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)/ M3 Money Supply (July)
· Ghana PPI (July)
Tuesday, August 20, 2024
Global
· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL), as well as Libya sanctions.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Both Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign and former President Donald Trump’s campaign are expected to file financial disclosures with the Federal Election Commission revealing how much money the respective campaigns raised in July.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr participates in a discussion on cybersecurity a the Joint Financial and Banking Information Infrastructure Committee-Financial Services Sector Coordinating Council Meeting being held in Washington, D.C.
· Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic to participate in fireside chat before hybrid "Innovating for Inclusion" forum at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
· Mexico Retail Sales (June)
· Canada Inflation Rate (July)/ CPI Median (July)/ CPI Trimmed-Mean (July)
· USA Redbook (August/17/API Crude Oil Stock Change (August/16)
· Argentina Balance of Trade (July)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· The date for the ruling Japanese LDP Leadership elections will be finalized today. (they will be sometime this fall) and will determine who the next prime minister will be. This comes after current Prime Minister Kishida's announced that he would not run for re-election in September.
· Ministers from Japan and its Asian neighbors gather for an Asia Zero Emission Community (AZEC) meeting in Jakarta. AZEC was created by Japan in 2022 to encourage eleven partner countries to further advance carbon neutrality. The attending nations will discuss ways to develop and spread a range of decarbonization technologies in the energy and transportation sectors. The ministerial meeting is set to be attended by Japan, Australia and members of the 10-nation ASEAN, except Myanmar.
· The Taiwanese Air Force and Navy will hold live-fire exercises. The event is expected to disrupt some fishing and commercial shipping off the island’s southeastern coast.
· The 9th Tokyo International Conference on African Development (TICAD 9) begins in Tokyo, Japan and runs through August 22.
Economic Reports/Events –
· South Korea Consumer Confidence (August)
· New Zealand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)/ Global Dairy Trade Price Index (August/20)
· China Loan Prime Rate 1Y & Loan Prime Rate 5Y (August)
· Australia RBA Meeting Minutes
· Taiwan Export Orders (July)/ Current Account Q2
· Hong Kong Inflation Rate (July)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· European Union President Ursula von der Leyden delivers a speech at the groundbreaking ceremony for the European Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (ESMC) semiconductor plant – being built by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) in Dresden, Germany. This is TSMC’s first plant in Europe and a critical component of its plant to build a global production footprint. The plant, which is expected to cost $10.8 billion to construct, is expected to open in late 2027. It will further solidify Dresden as a major semiconductor center as the new plant will sit next to Bosch’s semiconductor plant and close to Infineon’s plant (which is currently undergoing a $5 billion expansion).
· Today is National Day in Hungary as well as St. Stephen's Day (the patron saint of Hungary), a national holiday.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Germany PPI (July)
· Switzerland Balance of Trade (July)
· Slovakia Harmonized Inflation Rate (July)
· Euro Area Current Account (June)/ Inflation Rate Final (July)/ Construction Output (June)/ CPI Final (July)/ Negotiated Wage Growth Q2
· Italy Current Account (June)
· Turkey TCMB Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Borrowing Rate (August)/ Overnight Lending Rate (August)/ Central Government Debt (July)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Israel Unemployment Rate (July)
· Kuwait Inflation Rate (July)
· Jordan Industrial Production (June)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· The 2nd Namibia Oil and Gas Conference begins in Windhoek, Namibia. The country has become an oil exploration hotspot after large discoveries in recent years with an estimated 11 billion barrels of light oil and 2.2 trillion cubic feet of natural gas reserves.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Wednesday, August 21, 2024
Global
· UN Secretary-General António Guterres begins series of visits in the Pacific Islands and Asia. First, he will go to Samoa (August 21 – 23) where he will meet with Prime Minister Fiamē Naomi Mataʻafa. His visit will focus on the impacts of climate change in the country. He will then go to New Zealand (August 23- 24), where he will meet with Prime Minister Christopher Luxon. From there, he will go to Tonga from (August 24-27) where he will participate in the Pacific Islands Forum. He is expected to meet with the Prime Minister of Tonga, Mr. Siaosi 'Ofakivahafolau Sovaleni, as well as other leaders attending the Forum. The Secretary-General will then go to Timor-Leste (August 28 -31). Guterres will then head to Singapore (September 1-2) where he will meet with President Tharman Shanmugaratnam and Prime Minister Wong Lawrence. From there he will head to China (September 2 – 5), where he will meet with President Xi Jinping and participate in the 2024 Summit of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) in Beijing.
· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on Peacebuilding and sustaining peace: The New Agenda for Peace – Addressing global, regional and national aspects of conflict prevention.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· USA MBA Purchase Index (August/16)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (August/16)/ FOMC Minutes/
· Canada New Housing Price Index (July)/ PPI (July)/ Raw Materials Prices (July)
· Argentina Economic Activity (June)
· Costa Rica Balance of Trade (July)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Taiwan hosts the Ketagalan Security Forum. Sponsored by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Forum. Former Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihdo Noa, former US Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley, and a number of other prominent political figures from around the world will also attend and speak.
· The World Robot Conference begins in Beijing, China and runs through August 25.
Economic Reports/Events –
· South Korea Business Confidence (August)/ PPI (July)
· Japan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)
· Australia Westpac Leading Index (July)
· Indonesia Property Price Index Q2/ Loan Growth (July)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Deposit Facility Rate (August)/ Lending Facility Rate (August)
· New Zealand Credit Card Spending (July)
· Thailand Interest Rate Decision
· India M3 Money Supply (August/09)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will visit Poland, the first time an Indian Prime Minister has visited in 40 years. Modi is then expected (but still to be confirmed) to travel on August 23 to Kyiv to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky which would be the first time an Indian Prime Minister has visited the country.
· German Chancellor Olaf Scholz visits Moldova for talks on mutual security matters and Moldova’s efforts to gain membership to the EU.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Bank of Italy Governor Fabio Panetta will give a speech at the Rimini Meeting on Italian debt sustainability and economic development.
· Great Britain Public Sector Net Borrowing (July)
· Greece Current Account (June)
· Poland Corporate Sector Wages (July)/ Employment Growth (July)/ Industrial Production (July)/ PPI (July)
· Slovenia PPI (July)
· Russia PPI (July)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Israel Manufacturing Production (June)/ Inflation Expectations (August)
· Lebanon Inflation Rate (July)
· Oman Inflation Rate (July)/ M2 Money Supply (June)/ Total Credit (June)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· South Africa Inflation Rate (July)
Thursday, August 22, 2024
Global
· The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City hosts the Jackson Hole Policy Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. This year’s theme is “Reassessing the Effectiveness and Transmission of Monetary Policy.”
· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the Middle East.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· The Teamsters Union has set today as the deadline to reach a new labor agreement with the Canadian National Railway and Pacific Kansas City Rail or go on strike, which would cripple shipping in Canada.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Peru Current Account Q2/ GDP Growth Rate Q2
· Mexico GDP Growth Rate Final Q2/ Economic Activity (June)/ Mid-month Inflation Rate (August)/ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
· USA Chicago Fed National Activity Index (July)/ Initial Jobless Claims (August/17)/ S&P Global Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (August)/ Existing Home Sales (July)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (August/16)/ Kansas Fed Composite/ Manufacturing Index (August)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (August/21)/ Fed Balance Sheet (August/21)/ Jackson Hole Symposium
· Argentina Retail Sales (June)
· Paraguay PPI (July)/ Interest Rate Decision
· Brazil Federal Tax Revenues (July)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Australia Judo Bank Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (August)
· Japan Foreign Bond Investment (August/17)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (August/17)/ Jibun Bank Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (August)
· South Korea Interest Rate Decision
· Indonesia Current Account Q2
· Malaysia Inflation Rate (July)
· India HSBC Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (August)
· Taiwan Unemployment Rate (July)
· Thailand New Car Sales (July)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· The ECB releases Monetary Policy Meeting minutes
· Turkey Consumer Confidence (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August/16)
· France HCOB Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (August)
· Germany HCOB Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (August)
· Euro Area HCOB Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (August)/ Consumer Confidence Flash (August)
· Poland Retail Sales (July)
· Great Britain S&P Global Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (August)/ CBI Industrial Trends Orders (August)
· Ireland Wholesale Prices (July)
· Slovakia Current Account (June)
· Slovenia Unemployment Rate (June)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Saudi Arabia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)
· Israel M1 Money Supply (July)/ Composite Economic Index (July)
· Kuwait M2 Money Supply (July)/ Private Bank Lending (July)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Friday, August 23, 2024
Global
· Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Argentine President Javier Milei will attend the Mexican chapter of the CPAP Conservative Political Action Conference in Mexico City. Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador has refused to meet with Milei because he is Milei is attending the conference.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell will give a speech on the Economic Outlook at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s Jackson Hole Policy Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
· Canada Retail Sales (June)/ Manufacturing Sales Prel (July)
· Chile PPI (July)
· New Home Sales (July)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (August/23)/ Building Permits Final (July)/ Jackson Hole Symposium
· Mexico Current Account Q2
· El Salvador Balance of Trade (July)
· Argentina Leading Indicator (July)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· The Japanese Committee on Financial Affairs of the House of Representatives (Lower House) and the Committee on Financial Affairs of the House of Councilors (Upper House) meet with Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda and Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki to hear about the Bank’s July rate hike and expected financial market trends.
Economic Reports/Events –
· New Zealand Retail Sales Q2
· Japan Inflation Rate (July)
· Indonesia M2 Money Supply (July)
· Malaysia Coincident Index (June)/ Leading Index (June)
· Singapore Inflation Rate (July)
· Taiwan Industrial Production (July)/ Retail Sales (July)/ M2 Money Supply (July)
· India Bank Loan Growth (August/09)/ Deposit Growth (August/09)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August/16)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· French President Emmanual Macron begins consultations with political leaders about forming a new government and the selection of a new prime minister. The next parliamentary session begins October 1, but forming a new government is going to be difficult as the margins between the various political parties is slim. Outgoing Prime Minister Gabriel Attal is serving as a caretaker until a new government is formed.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey gives a speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
· Great Britain Gfk Consumer Confidence (August)/ CBI Distributive Trades (August)
· Ireland Consumer Confidence (August)
· Hungary Unemployment Rate (July)
· France Business Confidence (August)/ Business Climate Indicator (August)
· Turkey Tourist Arrivals (July)
· Slovenia Consumer Confidence (August)/ Tourist Arrivals (July)
· Poland M3 Money Supply (July)
· Ukraine GDP Growth Rate Q2
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Ivory Coast Inflation Rate (July)
· Mozambique GDP Growth Rate Q2
Saturday, August 24, 2024
Global
· Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Today is Ukraine Independence Day, making the day in 1991 when it gained its freedom from the Soviet Union.
Economic Reports/Events –
· European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane participates in a panel session "Reassessing the effectiveness and transmission of monetary policy" at Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s Economic Policy Symposium 2024 in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Sunday, August 25, 2024
Global
· Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Today is Uruguay Independence Day, marking the day in 1828 when the country gained its independence from Portugal.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Today is Day of Songun, a national holiday in North Korea. The day celebrates the start of the military-first rule in the nation under the leadership of Kim Jong-Il in 1948.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone participates in panel discussion at The Rimini Meeting 2024 "Se non siamo alla ricerca dell'essenziale, allora cosa cerchiamo?" in Rimini, Italy.
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.