The Global Week Ahead

April 23 - 30, 2023

It will be a momentous week in the US this week as President Joe Biden is expected to announce his intention to run for re-election via a video on Tuesday and later in the week as the House of Representatives will hold a vote on a Republican debt ceiling package.  While the debt ceiling package is likely to pass in the House by the slimmest of margins, it will almost certainly fail in the Senate – but many observers see the vote as at least jump-starting the debt ceiling negotiations.

Looking globally, we will closely watch a meeting between Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres on Monday.  While Russia’s war on Ukraine will be the primary issue of discussion, the future of the Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI) will be a significant focus.  On Saturday, former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said Russia would withdraw from the program if the G-7 continues moving toward an outright ban on exports to Russia.  See this European Commission briefing to understand how vital the BSGI is to global commodity prices and feeding large areas of Africa and the Middle East.

Looking at global economics this week, we will be watching the US Q1 GDP report coming out Thursday.  In the EU, Q1 GDP figures for the Eurozone, Germany, Italy, and Spain will be released Friday. Also, on Friday, ae the Bank of Japan will decide interest rates under new BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda.

Here is what else we are watching around the world this coming week:

Sunday, April 23, 2023:

Global

·       Japan hosts the G-7 Labor and Agriculture ministers. They are expected to discuss labor market policies in a post-COVID era as well as digital transformation/green transformation and the investment in human capital.

Americas

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Asia

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Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Kosovo is scheduled to hold municipal elections in northern municipalities that are predominately Serbian. Serbia opposes the elections, and the Belgrade-backed Kosovo Serb Party (Srpska Lista) has called for a boycott. The elections were originally scheduled for December 18, 2022, but were delayed after a series of violent incidents and pressure from the international community, including the EU.

·       In the UK, all UK phones are scheduled to receive a test emergency alert at 3 p.m. The system is planned to be used to issue warnings about life-threatening events such as floods and wildfires.

Economic Reports/Events –

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Middle East

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Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak will host the UK-Africa Investment Summit in London.

Economic Reports/Events –

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Monday, April 24, 2023:

Global

·       UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres meets in New York with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. Among the issues they are expected to discuss is the future of the Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI), along with Russia’s war on Ukraine. On Saturday, former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev threatened that if the G-7 moves to a near-total ban on exports to Russia, Russia will terminate the BSGI, a move that could trigger a global food security event. Additionally, Russia is chairing the UN Security Council this month, and Lavrov will personally chair the meeting held today (see next item).

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on the maintenance of international peace and security: Effective multilateralism through the defense of the principles of the UN Charter. The Secretary-General is expected to deliver remarks.  

·       TIME Magazine will host the TIME CO2 Earth Awards Gala in New York. . The inaugural TIME CO2 Earth Award recipients are António Guterres, Secretary-General of the United Nations; Mark Ruffalo, actor, director, producer, Co-Founder, The Solutions Project and Gloria Walton, President & CEO, The Solutions Project; Lisa P. Jackson, Vice President of Environment, Policy and Social Initiatives, Apple; and Vanessa Nakate, climate activist and UNICEF Goodwill Ambassador. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Brazil’s Supreme Court is excepted to hear testimony from former President Jair Bolsonaro over the failed January coup attempt after the election of current President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (Lula).  

·       The US Congress is in session this week.

·       The British Virgin Islands hold parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Chicago Fed National Activity Index (March), Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (April)

·       Canada New Housing (March)

·       Brazil Current Account (March), FDI (March), BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Mexico Inflation (March)

·       Argentina Economic Activity (February)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

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·       Singapore CPI (March), Inflation (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Belgium will host the North Sea Summit in Ostend. Leaders from Belgium, Denmark, German, and the Netherlands will meet. Also invited are the leaders of France, the UK, Ireland, and Norway and EU President Ursula von der Leyen. They will talk about energy challenges in the North Sea and ways to improve the transmission of electricity.

·       EU President Ursula von der Leyen will meet in Ostend, Belgium, with Norway’s Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre to discuss the situation in Ukraine.

·       The EU Foreign Affairs Council will meet to discuss the implementation of the EU action plan on the geopolitical consequences of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. It can be watched live HERE.

·       In London, the UK Court of Appeal will hold hearings through April 27 on legal challenges to the UK Government’s Rwanda asylum plan.

·       Armenia observes Armenian Genocide Remembrance Day, a public holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Board Member Fabio Panetta participates in a panel discussion at an event entitled “Integration, multilateralism, and sovereignty: building a Europe fit for new global dynamics - How should Europe position itself in a world that is increasingly fragmented and polarized?” organized by Bruegel in Brussels. 

·       ECB Board Member/Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB Andrea Enria Andrea Enria participates in an MNI Connect roundtable event via webcast. 

·       Later in the afternoon, ECB Board Member Panetta will give an introductory statement at the Hearing on the Digital Euro at the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament in Brussels.

·       Germany Ifo Business Climate (April), Ifo Current Conditions (April), Ifo Expectations (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

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Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Business Confidence (April) Capacity Utilization (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

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Tuesday, April 25, 2023:

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on “the situation in the Middle East, including the Palestinian question.” Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov will again chair the Council meeting.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Joe Biden is expected to announce his re-election campaign today with the release of a video.

·       The Chief Actuary of the Social Security Administration and Senator Bill Cassidy (R-LA) are going to speak at the Bipartisan Policy Center on the future of Social Security at an event entitled “Can We Fix Social Security?” The Congressional Budget Office recently reported the program will go bankrupt by 2032 and Medicare by 2033, requiring more than $4 trillion of new funding to keep them solvent.

· India’s External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar will pay an official visit to Colombia.  This is part of a series of multinational meetings Jaishankar is holding in the region. He visited Guyana between April 21-23, Panama from April 24 through April 25, Colombia through the 27th, and will finish with meetings in the Dominican Republic from April 27 through April 29.   Subrahmanyam is accompanied by a large delegation of Indian business leaders as India seeks to expand trade relations with these nations.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Redbook (April 22), S&P/Case-Shiller Home Prices (February), New Home Sales (March), Building Permits (March),  CB Consumer Confidence (April), Richmond Fed Services Index/Manufacturing Index/Manufacturing Shipping Index (April), Dallas Fed Services Revenues Index (April),

·       Canada Wholesale Sales (March)

·       Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (April), Retail Sales (February)

·       Mexico Economic Activity (February)

·       Argentina Retail Sales (February)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina will visit Japan through April 28. The two nations are working on a mutual defense strategy as the two nations are preparing to upgrade their relationship to a “strategic partnership.” Japan’s Prime Minister Kishida Fumio highlighted the relationship as part of his administration’s “New Plan

·       North Korea celebrates the anniversary of the founding of the North Korean Army.

• Australia and New Zealand commemorate Anzac Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea GDP (Q1)

·       Singapore Inflation (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meets in Luxembourg. They will discuss farming and forestry aspects of the carbon removals regulation, opportunities provided by the bioeconomy, the state of play of national strategic plans under the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), and the market situation, in particular following the invasion of Ukraine. Other items on the agenda include information from the Commission about biological control agents. The briefing document for the meeting can be found HERE.

• Italy celebrates Liberation Day, marking the day Nazi forces retreated from Italy. Financial markets are closed.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Deputy Governor Ben Broadbent will give a speech in London at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research on “Monetary Policy: Prices versus Quantities.”

·       UK Public Sector Net Borrowing Figures (March), CBI Industrial Trends Orders (April), CBI Business Optimism Index (Q2)

·       Spain PPI (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Israel celebrates Independence Day (Yom HaAtzmaut), which marks the day David ben Gurion read the Proclamation of the Establishment of the State of Israel on May 14, 1948.

Economic Reports/Events –

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Africa

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Wednesday, April 26, 2023:

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the United Nations Integrated Office in Haiti (BINUH). 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol will meet with President Joe Biden. He will also address a joint session of Congress to commemorate the 70th anniversary of US-South Korean relations. It is expected President Biden will encourage the South Korean President to agree to export weapons and ammunition to Ukraine.

·       The University of California-Berkeley School of Law will hold the Berkeley Spring Forum on M&A and the Boardroom.  Of note, Federal Trade Commission Chair Lina Kahn will speak on antitrust policy.

·       Reuters will host a forum on “The Future of US Offshore Wind Expansion: What Comes Next?” The  Department of Energy’s Head of US Offshore Wind Programs will speak and may give an indication of reported new offshore wind projects in Oregon, Main, and the Great Lakes. However, the US Defense Department is pushing to declare all possible development areas from Delaware to North Carolina as off-limits for additional wind projects as they will impede military operations.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US MBA Mortgage Index (April), Durable Goods Orders (March), Wholesale Inventories (March), Retail Inventories (March), Goods Trade Balance (March)

·       Canada Bank of Canada Summary of Deliberations, Manufacturing Sales (March)

·       Brazil Bank Lending (March), IPCA CPI (April), Net Payrolls (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

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Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Consumer Confidence (April)

·       Argentina Inflation (Q1), CPIs (Q1)

·       Singapore Industrial Production (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Italian government will host a Ukraine Reconstruction Conference in Rome.  Representatives of the Ukrainian government, the EU, and numerous international financial institutions will participate.

·       NATO commences “Noble Jump II” exercises in Sardinia, Italy, through May 13.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Board Member/Chair of the Supervisory Board Andrea Enria gives introductory remarks at the Supervisory reporting conference at the ECB, Frankfurt, Germany.

·       ECB Board Member Keerstin af Jochnick participates in a panel session entitled “Sustainability risk in the banking sector” at the Eurofi High-Level Seminar 2023 in Stockholm, Sweden.

·       ECB Board Member Luis de Guindos  Luis de Guindo participates in a panel discussion at Delphi Economic Forum VIII in Delphi, Greece.

·       ECB Board Member Anneli Tuominen gives concluding remarks at the Supervisory reporting conference at the ECB in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       The Delphi Economic Forum is held in Delphi, Greece, through April 29.

·       Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (May)

·       France Consumer Confidence (April), Unemployment Figures (March)

·       UK Labor Productivity (Q4), CBI Distributive Trade (April)

·       Russia Industrial Production (March)

Middle East

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Africa

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Thursday, April 27, 2023:

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations on the Middle East (Syria). In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the United Nations Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK).  

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Florida Governor Ron DeSantis travels to Israel to give a keynote address at the “Celebrate the Faces of Israel” event in Jerusalem.   This is part of a global international trade mission DeSantis is conducting this week and next week. The mission is also seen as an important elevation of his foreign policy views as he prepares for a likely US presidential campaign. DeSantis is scheduled to travel to Japan, where he will meet with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and Foreign Minister Yoshimisa Hayashi, and a number of Japanese business executives..  He will then travel to South Korea to meet with Prime Minister Han Duck-soo and South Korean business executives. After his trip to Israel, DeSantis will go to the UK for meetings with Foreign Minister James Cleverly and a number of leading UK business executives.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US GDP (Q1), Initial Jobless Claims (April 22), Real Consumer Spending (Q1), Core CPE Prices (Q1), Pending Home Sales (March), Kansas Fed. Manufacturing & Composite Indexes (April)

·       Canada CFIB Business Barometer (April), Average Weekly Earnings (February)

·       Brazil IGP-M Inflation (April)

·       Mexico Balance of Trade (March)

·       Argentina Consumer Confidence (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The 6th Digital China Summit will be held in Fuzhou today and Friday. Co-hosted by the Chinese Cyberspace Administration and several other government agencies, it will focus on data security, the digital economy, and the digital yuan. It is expected to also focus on the development of 6G and quantum communications to overcome US tech sanctions, per a call from the government to focus on these issues.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Industrial Profits (March)

·       Japan Leading Economic Index (February), Coincident Index (February)

·       South Korea Business Confidence (April)

·       Australia Import & Export Prices (Q1)

·       Indonesia FDI (Q1)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       In the UK, the National Health Service (NHS) will shut down the COVID-19 app.

·       Also in the UK, teachers in the National Education Union in England and Wales are set to stage another walkout in their dispute over pay.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Board Member Fabio Panetta participates in a presentation on the digital euro at the European Association of Co-operative Banks (EACB) board meeting in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Eurozone Economic Sentiment (April), Industrial Sentiment (April), Selling Price Expectations (April), Services Sentiment (April), Consumer Confidence (April), Consumer Inflation Expectations (April)

·       Spain Unemployment (Q1), Retail Sales (March)

·       Italy Consumer Confidence (April), Business Confidence (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Turkey will conduct a fuel loading ceremony at the Akkuyu nuclear power plant, and Russian President Vladimir Putin will attend virtually.  The plant was built by Russia’s Rosatom.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey TCMB Interest Rate Decision, Overnight Borrowing Rate (April), Overnight Lending Rate (April), FX Reserves (April 21), Economic Confidence Index (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Sierra Leone celebrates Independence Day, marking the day it declared independence from the UK in 1961.

·       Togo celebrates Independence Day, marking the anniversary of when Togo declared independence from France.

Economic Reports/Events –

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Friday, April 28, 2023:

Global

Economic Reports/Events –

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Americas

Political/Social Events –

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Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Core PCE Price Index (March), Personal Income (March), Employment Cost Index (Q1), Chicago PMI (April), Michigan Consumer Sentiment (April), Michigan Consumer Expectations (April), Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (April), Michigan Current Conditions (April), Michigan Inflation Expectations (April)

·       Canada GDP (February), Budget Balance (February)

·       Brazil Nominal Budget Balance (March), Gross Debt to GDP (March), Unemployment (March), IBC-BR Economic Activity (February), PPI (March), Federal Tax Revenues (March)

·       Mexico GDP (Q1) 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

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Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision (this will be the first monetary policy meeting under the new Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda), Bank of Japan Quarterly Outlook Report, Unemployment (March), Tokyo CPIs (April), Industrial Production (March), Retail Sales (March), Housing Starts (March), Construction Orders (March)

·       India Government Budget Value (March), FX Reserves (April 21), Infrastructure Rate (March)

·       South Korea Industrial Production (March), Retail Sales (March)

·       Singapore URA Property Index (Q1), Bank Lending (March), Unemployment Rate (Q1), Import Prices (March), Business Confidence (Q1), Export Prices (March)

·       Indonesia M2 Money Supply (March)

·       Australia Housing Credit (March), PPI (Q1), Private Sector Credit (March), CoreLogic Dwelling Prices (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Eurogroup (the EU finance ministers) will meet in Stockholm to discuss banking union and banking sector developments and hold a debrief on the IMF spring meetings and preparations for the G7 meeting in May. ECB Chair Christine Lagarde will participate in a press conference after the meeting.

Pope Francis begins a three-day visit to Hungary.

·       An information meeting of the EU Economy and Finance Ministers along with EU Central Bank Governors (ECOFIN) will be held in Stockholm. They will discuss planning for the reconstruction of Ukraine and coordination of support among nations as well as long-term perspectives on sustainable public finance.

·       In the UK,  Civil servants who are members of the Public and Commercial Services (PCS) union will strike over pay and working conditions. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Eurozone GDP (Q1)

·       Germany GDP (Q1), Inflation (April), Import Prices (March), Unemployment (April)

·       France GDP (Q1), Inflation (April), PPI (March)

·       UK Nationwide Housing Prices (April)

·       Spain Inflation (April), GDP (Q1), Current Account (February)

·       Italy GDP (Q1) Industrial Sales (February), Industrial Sales (February)

·       Russia Central Bank Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

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Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Tourism Revenues (Q1), Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (March), Tourist Arrivals (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

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Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Balance of Trade (March), Private Sector Credit (March), M3 Money Supply (March)

Saturday, April 29, 2023:

Global

·       The G-7 Digital and Tech Ministers meet in Gunma, Japan, today and tomorrow. The focus of the meeting is expected to be the safe use of artificial intelligence. Current policies in this area vary from country to country, which makes it difficult for companies with cross-border operations to adopt the technology. Japan will suggest that when countries introduce regulations, they should consider the characteristics of each AI product and the situations in which it will be used.

Americas

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Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Bangladesh’s Prime Minister Hasina will meet with World Bank President David Malpass and other senior World Bank officials and sign an expected $2.5 billion loan agreement.

·       Niue holds parliamentary elections (Niue is a coral atoll situation in the middle of the South Pacific within the triangle boundary of Tonga, Samoan, and Cook Islands).

Economic Reports/Events –

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Europe

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Economic Reports/Events –

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Middle East

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Africa

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Sunday, April 30, 2023:

Global

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Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Paraguay holds general elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

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Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Uzbekistan holds a vote on several constitutional amendments, including extending the presidential term from five to seven years, adding that Uzbekistan officially known as a “legal, social and secular state” (adding the word “secular”), adding a living minimum wage, guaranteeing the rights of the disabled, and a number of other amendments.

·       French Polynesia holds the 2nd round of Assembly elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

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Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       In the UK, the Royal College of Nursing (RCN) begins a 48-hour walkout over pay.

Economic Reports/Events –

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Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       US Speaker of the House of Representatives Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) travels to Israel. He will be leading a bipartisan delegation of 20 members of the House.  House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) will also be visiting.  McCarthy is expected to meet with Amir Ohana, the Speaker of the Knesset, and McCarthy will also address the Knesset. 

Economic Reports/Events –

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Africa

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