The Global Week Ahead

July 2 - 9, 2023

Happy Independence Day from Washington, D.C.  It is exceptionally quiet here.  Congress was out of session last week and will be out this week.  Seemingly all of the Nation’s Capital has fled to the beaches or the mountains.  But then again, so has most of Wall Street and the rest of Corporate America, as everyone seems to be taking Monday off, too.  But there is still plenty going on around the world this week.

First, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will travel to Beijing Wednesday.  It would be a quick and significant follow-up to Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s visit two weeks ago.  Her meetings with Chinese officials will cover many issues, most importantly, potential sanctions relief for some senior Chinese officials and discussions with China on how to work together to restructure debt in several emerging markets struggling with global conditions and the weight of the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative debt.  While no significant breakthroughs are expected, it will be seen by markets as another solid building block in stabilizing the US-China relationship.

Also in Asia this week, India will virtually chair the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Leaders’ Summit.  China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan – have been invited.  In addition, Iran, Belarus, and Mongolia have been invited in their role as Observer States.  Chinese President Xi Jinping is set to give a speech.  The SCO is an important gauge of the state of political and diplomatic relations in greater Eurasia – which, statistically, includes 40 percent of the world’s population.

On the global economic radar screen this week, markets will be looking at the U.S. jobs report and the Fed’s FOMC minutes, released Wednesday.   The ECB Consumer Expectations Survey and this week’s E.U. inflation figures top the list of reports to watch coming out of the E.U.  Markets will also be watching OPEC’s 8th International Seminar to get a sense of where oil pricing might be headed.  And in Asia, China’s Caixin PMIs are out Monday. 

Here is what else we are watching around the world this week - please let us know if you have any questions:

Sunday, July 2, 2023

Global

·       NSTR

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       French President Emmanuel Macron has canceled his scheduled three-day state visit to Germany due to a wave of violence across Paris due to the killing of a teenager of North African descent.

·       Spain takes over the presidency of the Council of the European Union.  They hold the chair until December 31, 2023.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Monday, July 3, 2023

Global

·       NSTR

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Argentina will host a summit for leaders of the Mercosur customs union. The Presidency of the organization will be passed to Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula Da Silva (Lula), who is expected to relaunch Mercosur as a “key instrument” of the international economic policy of its member states. 

·       CARICOM’s(the Caribbean Community) 45th Regular Meeting of the Conference of Heads of Government is held in Trinidad.  UN Secretary-General António Guterres will address the group.

·       A US Federal Court could rule as soon as today on the $75 billion Microsoft-Activision acquisition.  A negative ruling would likely scuttle the deal, which the Federal Trade Commission is asking of the Court.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June), ISM Manufacturing PMIs (June), Construction Spending (May)

·       Mexico Business Confidence (June), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)

·       Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June), Balance of Trade (June), BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (May)

·       Argentina Tax Revenue (June)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Thailand’s parliament will meet to begin choosing a new prime minister per a royal decree by the King.  The country’s election commission certified the winners of the elections – all 500 seats in the lower house who have to elect a speaker and two deputy speakers.  Once they have done that, a joint session with the senate will be called to choose the new prime minister. The most likely candidate is Pita Limjaroenrat, a Harvard-trained businessman who leads the Move Forward Party and helped pull off a stunning upset victory in May.

·       Indonesian President Joko Widodo travels to Australia to meet with Prime Minister Anthony Albanese for the 8th annual Australia-Indonesia Leaders meeting. They will discuss ways to increase trade and work mutually on climate issues.

·       Okinawa Governor Denny. Tamaki visits China for four days.  Tamaki is leading a delegation of members of the Japan International Trade Promotion Association.  The significance of this is that Chinese President Xi last month caused a stir while visiting a museum in Beijing that included a section on Okinawa and then commenting that the island is “Ryuku” – essentially, that the island is historically once part of China prior to being annexed by Japan in 1879.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (June)

·       Japan Tankan Manufacturing Indexes (Q2)

·       South Korea S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)

·       India S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)

·       Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June), Tourist Arrivals (May), Inflation Rate (June)

·       Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI (June), Commodity Prices (June), TD-MI Inflation Gauge (June), Building Permits May), Home Loans (May), Investment Lending for Homes (May), ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (June), Private House Approvals (May), Building Permits (May)

·       Singapore URA Property Index (Q2), SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (June)

·       Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)

·       Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)

·       Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)

·       Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)

·       Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)

·       Pakistan Inflation (June), Wholesale Sales (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing PMI (June)

·       Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (June), New Car Registrations (June)

·       UK S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI (June)

·       France Budget Balance (May), HCOB Manufacturing PMI (June)

·       Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)

·       Spain HCOB Manufacturing PMI (June), New Car Registrations (June)

·       Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI (June), New Car Registrations (June)

·       Norway DN Manufacturing PMI (June)

·       Hungary Balance of Trade (April)

·       Sweden Swedbank Manufacturing PMI (June)

·       Switzerland Inflation (June), CPI (June), Procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (June)

·       Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Central Bank Meeting Summary, Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (June), Auto Sales (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The Africa50 Infra for Africa Forum and General Shareholders Meeting is held in Février, Lomé.   The event is hosted by the African Development Bank.

·       Zambia observes Heroes’ Day, honoring those who fought for the country’s independence which was won in 1964.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PIM (June), New Vehicle Sales (June)

·       Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PIMI (June)

·       Angola FX Reserves (June)

Tuesday, July 4, 2023

Global

·       NSTR

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       It is Independence Day in the United States, a national holiday.  Federal and state governments are closed, as are banks and financial markets.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)

·       Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (June), Industrial Production (May)

·       Colombia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (June)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO Leaders’ Summit will be held virtually with India chairing.  China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan – have been invited. In addition, Iran, Belarus, and Mongolia have been invited in their role as Observer States. Chinese President Xi Jinping is set to give a speech.

·       The Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Rafael Grossi, will visit Japan through July 7 regarding the Fukushima wastewater release plan.  It is expected the Japanese government is likely to release the plan once following the visit.

·       The Federated States of Micronesia hold a constitutional referendum on a number of issues ranging from the threshold going forward on percentages needed to make constitutional changes, citizenship, revenue derived from fishing license fees, seabed mining, and the establishment of an Independent Prosecutors Office.

·       The Philippines observes Republic Day – which is also called Philippine-American Friendship Day – celebrating the Treaty of Manila, which was signed in 1946, giving the country its independence.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Inflation (June), CPI (June), FX Reserves (June)

·       Australia Reserve Bank Interest Rate Decision

·       Thailand Business Confidence (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       EU President Ursula von der Leyden meets with the Prime Minister of Serbia, Ana Brnabić, to discuss ongoing tensions between Serbia and Kosovo.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (May)

·       Spain Unemployment (June), Tourist Arrivals (May)

·       Romania PPI (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Qatar Financial Centre PMI (June)

·       Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (June)

·       UAE S&P Global PMI (June), GDP (Q1)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The inaugural African Voluntary Carbon Credits Market Forum is held in Zimbabwe. The aim of the meeting is to create a pan-African Register of Carbon Credits. To be traded on the Victoria Stock Exchange.

·       Today is Rwanda Independence Day, marking the anniversary of when the country was liberated from the control of the dictatorship of Juvénal Habyarimana in 1994.

·       Zambia celebrates Unity Day (one day after celebrating Hero’s Day), a national holiday promoting unity among the 70+ ethnic groups that make up the country.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Kenya PMI (June)

·       Ghana PMI (June)

·       South Africa PMI (June)

Wednesday, July 5, 2023 

Global

·       OPEC holds its 8th International Seminar through July 6. 

·       The UN Security Council will hold an open debate in connection with “How to prevent and respond to grave violations against children in armed conflict” under the agenda item “Children and armed conflict.”

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to be briefed and discuss the situation in Venezuela.

·       William O'Neill, the UN’s Independent Expert on the situation of human rights in Haiti, will hold a hybrid briefing on his recent visit to Haiti at the United Nations.

· The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) will release the World Investment Report 2023, "Investing in sustainable energy for all"”

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US Secretary of Treasury Janet Yellen with be in Beijing to meet with senior officials to discuss a multitude of issues.  She will also meet with the heads of US companies operating in China to discuss trade issues.

·       Venezuela technically celebrates its Independence Day, marking when it became the first independent state in South America in 1821.  Of course, it is not under the domain of a dictatorship.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New York Federal Reserve Bank President & CEO John Williams will speak at the Annual Meeting of the Central Bank Research Association at the New York Fed.

·       US Federal Reserve Board Open Markets Minutes, MBA Mortgage Market Index (June 30), Redbook (July 1), IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (July), Factory Orders (May), LMI Logistics Managers Index (June)

·       Brazil S&P Services & Composite PMIs (June)

·       Mexico Consumer Confidence (June)

·       Colombia Central Bank Monetary Policy Minutes, Exports (May), PPI (June)

·       Uruguay Inflation (June)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Kazakhstan celebrates Capital City Day, a national holiday in honor of the city, Nur-Sultan, being named the new capital (it was previously Almaty).

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Caixin Services & Composite PMIs (June)

·       Japan Jibun Bank Services & Composite PMIs (June)

·       India S&P Global Composite & Global Services PMIs (June)

·       Singapore S&P Global PMI (June), Retail Sales (May)

·       Taiwan FX Reserves (June)

·       Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (June)

·       Australia Reserve Bank Chart Pack, Retail Sales (May), Judo Bank Services & Bank Composite PMIs (June), Ai Group Industry Index (June), Ai Group Construction Index (June), Ai Group Manufacturing Index (June)

·       Philippines Inflation (June)

·       Thailand Inflation (June)

·       Pakistan Balance of Trade (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       King Charles and Queen Camilla will be crowned for a second time at a ceremony in Scotland known as the Service of Dedication and Thanksgiving.

·       In England, schoolteachers in the National Education Union resume strike action over pay, with another strike planned for Friday.

·       Armenia celebrates Constitution Day, marking the adoption of its post-Soviet constitution being adopted in 1994.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Non-Monetary Policy Meeting, HCOB Services & Composite PMIs (June)

·       Germany HCOB Services & Composite PMIs (June), PPI (May)

·       France Industrial Production (May), HCOB Services & Composite PMIs (June)

·       UK S&P Global/CIPS Services & Composite PMIs (June), New Car Sales (June)

·       Italy HCOB Services & Composite PMIs (June)

·       Spain Industrial Policy (May), HCOB Services & Composite PMIs (June)

·       Ireland AIB Services PMI (June), Unemployment (June)

·       Norway House Price Index (June)

·       Slovenia Balance of Trade (June)

·       Sweden Services PMI (June)

·       Romania Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

·       Serbia PPI (June)

·       Hungary Central Bank Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       Russia S&P Global Composite & Global Services PMIs (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Algeria celebrates Independence Day, commemorating when the country won its independence from France in 1962.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Inflation (June), PPI (June), CPI (June), FX Reserves (June 23), Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (June)

·       Lebanon BLOM PMI (June)

·       Israel Business Confidence (June), Tourist Arrivals (June)

·       Qatar GDP (Q1)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Comoros celebrates National Day, marking the anniversary of the country’s independence from France in 1975.

·       Malawi celebrates Independence Day, marking its independence from the UK in 1964.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa S&P Global PMI (June)

·       Mozambique Standard Bank PMI (June)

·       Kenya Stanbic Bank PMI (June)

·       Ghana S&P Global PMI (June)

Thursday, July 6, 2023

Global

·       New York Federal Reserve Bank Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI) monthly update is released.

·       The UN-sponsored The AI for Good Global Summit takes place in Geneva, Switzerland.

· In Geneva, there will be a press conference on the situation of human rights in Myanmar by Thomas Andrews, United Nations Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights in Myanmar. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President & CEO Lori Logan will speak at the Central Bank Research Association Annual Meeting being held at the New York Fed.

·       US Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (May), S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (June), Initial Jobless Claims (July 1), Challenger Job Cuts (June), ADP Employment Change (June), ISM Services PMI (June), JOLTS Job Openings (May), ISM Services Employment/New Orders/Services Prices Reports (June), New Vehicle Sales (June)

·       Canada Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (May)

·       Mexico Central Bank Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       Chile Central Bank Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       Colombia Inflation (June)

·       Paraguay Inflation Rate (June)

·       Argentina Industrial Production (May)

·       Uruguay Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The World Artificial Intelligence Conference is held in Shanghai, China, through July 8.  The organizers point out that “The previous five WAICs attracted more than 600,000 visitors in person and 1.5 billion online. Over 200 major industrial projects with a total investment of CNY70 billion (USD 9.6 billion) were signed at previous events. Moreover, 58 major application scenarios were unveiled, and more than 300 products were launched in the domestic and foreign markets.”

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (May)

·       Taiwan Inflation (June)

·       Malaysia Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Turkish President Erdogan is expected to meet with the Swedish Prime Minister in Brussels to discuss Sweden’s accession to NATO.  The meeting, hosted by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, hopes to finalize a deal in advance of the NATO Summit on July 11-12.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Eurozone HCOB Construction PMI (June), Retail Sales (May)

·       Germany Factory Orders (May), HCOB Construction PMI (June)

·       France HCOB Construction PMI (June), New Car Registrations (June)

·       Italy HCOB Construction PMI (June)

·       UK S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI (June)

·       Poland Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

·       Romania Retail Sales (May)

·       Slovakia Retail Sales (May)

·       Hungary Industrial Production (May), Retail Sales (May)

·       Russia Vehicle Sales (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey FX Reserves (June 30)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Friday, July 7, 2023

Global

·       The G7 Justice Ministers will meet in Tokyo.  Justice Ministers from ASEAN countries have been invited to attend.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Unemployment (June), Average Weekly Hours (June), Government Payrolls (June)

·       Canada Unemployment (June), Ivey PMI (June)

·       Brazil Car Production (June)

·       Mexico Inflation (June), Auto Exports (June), Auto Production (June)

·       Chile Inflation (June), Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (June)

·       El Salvador Inflation (June)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Solomon Islands celebrates Independence Day, marking the anniversary of when the UK granted the country its independence in 1978.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China FX Reserves (June)

·       Japan Coincident Index (May), Leading Economic Index (May), Household Spending (May), Overtime Pay (May), Average Cash Earnings (May), FX Reserves (June)

·       South Korea Current Account (May)

·       India FX Reserves (June 30)

·       Taiwan Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (June)

·       Singapore FX Reserves (June)

·       Hong Kong FX Reserves (June)

·       Indonesia FX Reserves (June)

·       Thailand Consumer Confidence (June)

·       Philippines Unemployment (May), Industrial Production (May), FX Reserves (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Germany’s Bundestag going into summer break, and all 736 members of Parliament will be out of session until September.

·       In the UK, the Church of England’s General Synod, the institution’s main legislative body, begins a five-day meeting at York University. The agenda includes further discussion on contentious proposals for same-sex marriage blessings and a report on climate change from the church’s national investing bodies.

·       Today is the annual Running of the Bulls in Spain.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB President Christine Lagarde participates in a panel "Où sont les femmes?" at 23rd edition of Les Rencontres Economiques d'Aix-en-Provence 2023 in Aix-en-Provence , France.

·       ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos gives a keynote at a workshop, "Examining the inflationary surge affecting economies around the world," organized by King's College in London.

·       Germany Industrial Production (May)

·       France Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (May), FX Reserves (June)

·       UK Halifax House Price Index (June), Labor Productivity (Q1), BBA Mortgage Rate (June)

·       Italy retail Sales (May)

·       Poland Central Bank Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, FX Reserves (June)

·       Ukraine FX Reserves (June)

·       Norway Industrial Production (May), GDP (May), Manufacturing Production (May)

·       Switzerland Unemployment Rate (June), FX Reserves (June)

·       Sweden GDP (May), Construction Output (May), Household Consumption (May), Industrial Production (May), New Orders (May)

·       Hungary Inflation (June)

·       Romania GDP (Q1)

·       Slovakia Balance of Trade (May)

·       Russia FX Reserves (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt Inflation (June), FX Reserves (June)

·       Israel FX Reserves (June)

·       Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (June)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Kenya is bracing for protests over the recent tax law passed by parliament.  Protesters believe the change has raised the cost of living significantly.

·       The African Union hosts African Integration Day 2023. The theme this year is “Accelerating Job Creation, Digital and Financial Inclusion in the AfCFTA Market.”

·       Today is Saba Saba Day in Tanzania, celebrating the unifying of the country under several political parties.  It is a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR 

Saturday, July 8, 2023

Global

·       NSTR

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       ASEAN Foreign Ministers will meet in Jakarta, Indonesia, through July 14.

·       The 4th Round of the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity negotiations take place in Busan, South Korea.

·       Today is the one-year anniversary of the assassination of former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Vehicle Sales (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Latvia will inaugurate President-elect Edgars Rinkevics in Riga. He has been a long-serving and highly popular foreign minister and becomes the country’s first gay president.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR 

Sunday, July 9, 2023

Global

·       NSTR

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Senior officials from the US Trade Representative and US Commerce Department will travel to Busan, South Korea, for the fourth negotiating round of the Ind-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) through July 15. 

·       Today is Independence Day in Argentina, marking the day in 1816 when the Congress of Tucumán declared the independence of the United Provinces of South America, thus creating Argentina.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Uzbekistan holds presidential elections.

·       Palau celebrates Constitution Day, marking the day the country decided not to join the rest of Micronesia and instead adopted its own Constitution.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR 

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