The Global Week Ahead

Written By Francis Kelly

March 10 - 17, 2024

The coming week is another busy week of bilateral meetings between world leaders. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz may win the award for most meetings, hosting the leaders of the Philippines, Indonesia, and a number of other nations. But the most important meeting may be when President Biden hosts the Polish Prime Minister and President on Monday, where the discussion will focus on how to get the US Congress to move on passage of critically needed Ukrainian military aid.

The situation in Gaza will continue to dominate many of these meetings as Ramadan begins tonight and hope for a cease fire and release of hostages seems to be dimming.

The US Congress continues to grind through the long-overdue budget process, getting a number of individual bills this past week and now begins focusing on the final package of appropriations bills this week. The question as to whether the House of Representatives will get to considering that aide package to Ukraine (as well as aid to Israel and Taiwan) remains completely unclear as of this writing.

Also this week, Russia holds presidential elections. Incumbent Vladimir Putin really has no opposition as he faces three friendly candidates. The one candidate who was not friendly, Boris Nadezhdin, was banned from running.

Portugal is also holding snap elections this week and markets will be watching to see if the far-right pulls off a surprise power-play. As of this writing, the vote looks to be close with a center-right coalition likely to win.

Looking to Asia, the China’s National People’s Congress finishes its meetings on Monday. The question markets are asking is if there will be an agreement coming out of the Congress to ramp up stimulus to help get the nation’s economy back on track or if President Xi will let the economy alone to figure out how to right size itself.

Looking at the global economic radar screen for the coming week, in the US CPI data and retail sales will be released this week, giving markets (and the Federal Reserve) a clearer sense if inflation is ticking back up or not.

Looking at the EU, the UK will be releasing GDP figures which come a week in advance of the next Bank of England interest rate decision. In Asia, Japan will be releasing PPI figures and China will be announcing its 1-year MLF rate.

Below is what else we are watching around the world this week:

Sunday, March 10, 2024

Global

  • Ramadan begins for Muslims around the world.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • The Academy Awards are held at the Dolby Theater in Los Angeles, California.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • The U.S. and South Korean militaries will hold their annual Freedom Shield exercise through March 14.

  • Vietnamese Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh will pay official visits to Australia and New Zealand through March 11.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Today is the deadline Israel has given Hamas to release all hostages.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Saudi Arabia GDP Growth Rate Final Q4, Industrial Production (January)

  • Israel GDP Growth Annualized 2nd Est Q4

  • Egypt Inflation Rate (February)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Rwanda inflation (February).

 

 

Monday, March 11, 2024

Global

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • USA Consumer Inflation Expectations (February), NY Fed Treasury Purchases 4.5 to 7 yrs., 3- & 6-Month Bill Auction, 3-Year Note Auction

  • El Salvador PPI (February)

  • Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • China’s National People’s Congress finishes today.

  • Today is the Hindu Saka New Year holiday. Financial markets closed until March 13.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Japan GDP Growth Annualized Final Q4, GDP Growth Rate Final Q4, GDP Capital Expenditure Final Q4, GDP External Demand Final Q4, GDP Price Index Final Q4, GDP Private Consumption Final Q4, Machine Tool Orders (February)

  • Philippines Foreign Direct Investment DEC

  • India Passenger Vehicles Sales (February), Car Sales (February)

  • China Vehicle Sales (February)

  • Indonesia Motorbike Sales (February)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • The Eurogroup will meet in Brussels.  They will discuss Macroeconomic developments and fiscal policy in the euro area in 2025, issue a Statement on the future of the Capital Markets Union, and begin coordination on preparing for the Euro Summit later in the month.

  • Today is  Commonwealth Day.  A memorial service will be held at Westminster Abbey, involving the 56 member countries and members of the British royal family in the annual celebration of the global network.

  • A flag-raising ceremony to mark the accession of the Kingdom of Sweden to NATO will take place at NATO Headquarters in Brussels.

  • The EU Employment, Social Policy, Health and Consumer Affairs Council meets in Brussels through March 12.  They are expected to discuss working conditions for platform workers, as well as the implementation of the European Pillar of Social Rights in the context of the European Semester 2024 and the future social agenda. Additionally, they will endorse the opinion of the Employment Committee and of the Social Protection Committee on the EU’s future policy priorities for the European Pillar of Social Rights, approve conclusions on the 2024 annual sustainable growth survey and the joint employment report, and approve key messages from the Employment Committee on the implementation of the Council recommendation ‘A Bridge to Jobs – Reinforcing the Youth Guarantee.’

  • Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim makes his first official visit to Germany and will meet with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

  • Today is the 20th anniversary of the 2004 Madrid train bombings, which killed nearly 200 people.

  • Today is Independence Restoration Day in Lithuania, celebrating when the country gained its independence from the Soviet Union in 1990.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • ECB Board Member Piero Cipollone participates in the Eurogroup meeting in Brussels, Belgium.

  • Ireland Construction PMI (February)

  • Romania Balance of Trade (January)

  • Turkey Unemployment Rate (January), Participation Rate (January), Retail Sales (January)

  • Spain Retail Sales (January)

  • Switzerland Consumer Confidence (February)

  • Slovenia Industrial Production (January)

  • Germany 3- and 9-Month Bubill Auction

  • Belarus Inflation Rate (February)

  • France 3-, 6-, & 12-Month BTF Auction

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Mozambique Inflation Rate (February)

 

 

Tuesday, March 12, 2024 

Global

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • President Biden will host Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk and Polish President Andrzej Duda at the White House.  They are expected to discuss the situation in Ukraine, the Russian threat to Poland, and the situation in Gaza. The meeting comes on the 25th anniversary of Poland’s accession to NATO.

  • There will be an emergency meeting of Canada, the US, and the CARICOM bloc to discuss what to do to deal with the crisis in Haiti.

  • Department of Justice Special Counsel Robert Hur will testify before the House of Representatives on his handling of the probe of President Joe Biden.

  • Presidential primaries are held in Hawaii, Georgia, Missouri, and Washington State.

  • In Argentina, left-wing groups have called for protests against President Javier Milei’s austerity policies. Although roadblocks are banned in Buenos Aires, the groups are vowing to ignore the ban.

  • Sweden’s King Carl XVI Gustaf and Queen Silvia arrive for a three-day state visit at the invitation of Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • USA NFIB Business Optimism Index (February), Core Inflation Rate (February), Inflation Rate (February), CPI (February), Redbook Mar/09, 10-Year Note Auction, Monthly Budget Statement (February), API Crude Oil Stock Change Mar/08

  • Brazil Inflation Rate (February), Business Confidence (March)

  • Mexico Industrial Production (January)

  • Ecuador Balance of Trade (January)

  • Paraguay Balance of Trade (February)

  • Argentina Inflation Rate (February)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • New Zealand Electronic Retail Card Spending (February)

  • Australia RBA Hunter Speech, NAB Business Confidence (February), Building Permits Final (January), Private House Approvals Final (January)

  • Japan BSI Large Manufacturing Q1, PPI (February)

  • Philippines Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)

  • Malaysia Industrial Production (January)

  • India Industrial Production (January), Inflation Rate (February), Manufacturing Production (January)

  • Singapore MAS 4- & 12-Week Bill Auction

  • China New Yuan Loans (February), M2 Money Supply (February), Outstanding Loan Growth (February), Total Social Financing (February)

  • Pakistan Consumer Confidence (February)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • The EU Economic and Financial Affairs Council will meet in Brussels.  They will seek to approve guidelines for the 2025 EU budget and to adopt its recommendation on the 2022 budget discharge.  Ministers will also discuss the Recovery and Resilience Facility and the economic and financial impact of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine.  They will also debate with employment and social affairs ministers on social investments and reforms for resilient economies.

  • Philippines President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. meets with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in Berlin to discuss mutual trade and security issues. Marcos will then visit the Czech Republic through March 15.

  • Members of the EU Parliament will meet with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyden and the Belgian Presidency to outline their expectations for the upcoming EU Summit (March 21-22), which is set to focus on the Ukraine War, the War in Gaza, and overall EU security and defense policy.

  • The EU Parliament is expected to adopt the Artificial Intelligence Act, which aims to ensure that AI is trustworthy, safe, and respects EU fundamental rights. 

Economic Reports/Events –

  • ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos participates in the ECOFIN meeting in Brussels, Belgium.

  • ECB Claudia Buch gives a keynote speech at the Morgan Stanley Financial Conference 2024 in London, United Kingdom.

  • The Bank of England Financial Policy Committee meets.

  • Germany Inflation Rate Final (February), CPI (February), Harmonized Inflation Rate Final (February), 2-Year Schatz Auction

  • Turkey Industrial Production (January), Current Account (January)

  • Great Britain Unemployment Rate (January), Average Earnings incl. Bonus (3Mo/Yr) (January), Average Earnings excl. Bonus (3Mo/Yr) (January), Employment Change (January), Claimant Count Change (February), HMRC Payrolls Change (February), 10-Year Treasury Gilt Auction

  • Slovakia Construction Output (January)

  • Spain 3- & 9-Month Letras Auction

  • Italy 12-Month BOT Auction

  • Russia Balance of Trade (January), CPI (February), Inflation Rate (February)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Israel Current Account Q4

  • Jordan PPI (January)

  • Oman M2 Money Supply (January), Total Credit (January)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • The Africa eGovernance Conference will take place in Kigali, Rwanda. It will bring together decision-makers to discuss the future of African digital governance.

  • Today is Independence Day in Mauritius.  The day marks the day the country won its independence from the UK in 19689.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Angola Wholesale Prices (February), Inflation Rate (February)

 

 

Wednesday, March 13, 2024

Global

  • The UN  Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on peacebuilding and sustaining peace: Promoting conflict prevention – Empowering all actors, including women and youth.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • USA MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate /MBA Mortgage Applications/MBA Mortgage Market Index/MBA Mortgage Refinance Index/MBA Purchase Index Mar/08, EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change/EIA Gasoline Stocks Change/EIA Crude Oil Imports Change/EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change/EIA Distillate Fuel Production Change/EIA Distillate Stocks Change/EIA Gasoline Production Change/EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change/EIA Refinery Crude Runs Change Mar/08, 17-Week Bill Auction, 30-Year Bond Auction

  • Uruguay Industrial Production (January)

  • Brazil Net Payrolls (January)

  • Peru Balance of Trade (January)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Japanese companies are expected to conclude wage negotiations with major labor unions.  The Unions are demanding an average pay rise of 5.85%, the highest increase in 31 years.

  • Asia's largest retail show, 2024 ChinaShop, will take place in Shanghai through March 15.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • New Zealand Food Inflation (February)

  • South Korea Unemployment Rate (February)

  • Indonesia Consumer Confidence (February)

  • Malaysia Retail Sales (January)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • The ECB non-monetary policy meeting takes place in Frankfurt, Germany.

  • ECB Board Member Kerstin af Jochnick gives a keynote speech on "Single Supervisory after ten years: Experience and way forward" at Landesbank Baden-Württemberg (LBBW) Fixed Income Forum in Frankfurt, Germany.

  • ECB Board Member Piero Cipollone gives virtual concluding remarks at the conference organized by Osservatori Digital Innovation, Politecnico di Milano in Milan, Italy.

  • Romania Industrial Production (January), Inflation Rate (February)

  • Great Britain GDP (January), GDP 3-Month Avg (January), Goods Trade Balance (January), Goods Trade Balance Non-EU (January), Industrial Production (January), Manufacturing Production (January), Balance of Trade (January), Construction Output (January), GDP (January), NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (February)

  • Hungary Industrial Production Final (January), Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

  • Euro Area Industrial Production (January)

  • Italy 3-, 7-, 15-, 20-, & 30-Year BTP Auction

  • Germany 10-Year Bund Auction

  • Ireland Residential Property Prices (January)

  • Russia Balance of Trade (January), Inflation Rate (February)

  • Turkey Auto Production (February)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Israel Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Nigeria’s Labor Congress has threatened to resume nationwide strikes against the government.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Ethiopia Inflation Rate (January)

  • Ghana Inflation (February)

 

 

Thursday, March 14, 2024

Global

  • The UN Security Council, an adoption is scheduled on the United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) and the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA). Also, in the morning, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations (Yemen).

  • G7 Industry, Tech, and Digital Ministers meet in Verona, Italy, through March 15.

  • The OECD Global Sustainability Report 2024 will be published.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Brazil Retail Sales (January)

  • Canada Manufacturing Sales Final (January), 5-Year Bond Auction

  • USA PPI  (February), Retail Sales  (February), Core PPI  (February), Initial Jobless Claims Mar/09, Retail Sales Ex Autos  (February), Continuing Jobless Claims Mar/02, Core PPI  (February), Jobless Claims 4-week Average Mar/09, PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade  (February), Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos  (February), Business Inventories  (January), Retail Inventories Ex Autos  (January), EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change Mar/08, 4- & 8-Week Bill Auction, 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (March)/13

  • Colombia Consumer Confidence (February)

  • Paraguay Consumer Confidence (February)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • New Zealand Visitor Arrivals (January)

  • Japan Foreign Bond Investment Mar/09, Stock Investment by Foreigners Mar/09

  • Indonesia Retail Sales (January)

  • India WPI Food Index YoY/WPI Fuel YoY/WPI Inflation YoY/WPI Manufacturing (February)

  • Hong Kong Industrial Production Q4

  • Singapore 6-Month T-Bill Auction

  • Kazakhstan GDP (February)

  • China PBoC 1-Year MLF Announcement

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • European President Ursula von der Leyden meets with. Aksel V. Johannesen, Prime Minister of the Faroe Islands, together with Mette Frederiksen, Prime Minister of Denmark in Tórshavn, Faroes.

  • Nato secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg holds a press conference to present his annual report for 2023.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • ECB Board Member Frank Elderson participates at the European Banking Federation Executive Committee meeting in Frankfurt, Germany.

  • ECB Board Member Isabel Schnabel gives a speech at the Money Market Contact Group (MMCG) meeting in Frankfurt, Germany.

  • ECB Board Member Luis de Guindo gives a fireside chat with Guindos at Foros de Vanguardia in Barcelona, Spain.

  • Great Britain RICS House Price Balance (February)

  • Hungary Construction Output (January)

  • Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (February)

  • Spain Core Inflation Rate Final (February), CPI (February), Harmonized Inflation Rate Final (February), Inflation Rate Final (February)

  • Ireland CPI (February), Harmonized Inflation Rate Final (February), Inflation Rate (February)

  • Ukraine Interest Rate Decision

  • Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves Mar/08

  • Germany Current Account (January)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Saudi Arabia Wholesale Prices (February), Inflation Rate (February)

  • Jordan Inflation Rate (February)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • South Africa Gold Production (January), Mining Production (January), Manufacturing Production (January)

 

 

Friday, March 15, 2024

Global

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Irish Prime Minister (Taoiseach) Varadkar visits with President Biden in advance of St. Patrick’s Day .

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Canada Housing Starts (February), Foreign Securities Purchases/ Purchases by Canadians (January), Wholesale Sales Final (January)

  • USA Import/ Export Prices (February), NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (March), Industrial Production (February), Capacity Utilization (February), Manufacturing Production (February), Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel/5 Year Inflation Expectations Prel/ Consumer Expectations Prel/ Current Conditions Prel Inflation Expectations Prel (March), Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count/ Total Rigs Count Mar/15, NOPA Crush Report

  • Colombia Industrial Production (January), Retail Sales (January)

  • Peru GDP Growth Rate (January), Unemployment Rate (February)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • New Zealand’s Deputy Prime Minister & Foreign Minister Winston Peters travels to Singapore for a meeting with Balakrishnan.

  • Today is China Consumer Rights Day.  It follows a regular format, with undercover reporters on hidden cameras investigating defective products and services based on complaints from consumers. In the past, foreign brands, including Ford Motor and Muji, were named and shamed, sending company executives scrambling into damage control mode.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • South Korea Import/Export Prices (February)

  • New Zealand Business NZ PMI (February)

  • Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (March)

  • China House Price Index (February)

  • Singapore Unemployment Rate Final Q4

  • Philippines Budget Balance (January), Cash Remittances (January)

  • Indonesia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)

  • Japan Tertiary Industry Index (January)

  • Sri Lanka GDP Growth Rate Q4, Manufacturing PMI (February), Services PMI (February)

  • India Foreign Exchange Reserves Mar/08, Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)

  • Kazakhstan Industrial Production (February)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • Russia’s presidential elections begin and run through March 17.

  • EU President Ursula von der Leyen travels to Greenland to meet with Múte I. Bourup Egede, Prime Minister of Greenland, together with Mette Frederiksen, Prime Minister of Denmark, in Nuuk, Greenland.

  • Today is Memorial Day of the 1848 Revolution in Hungary, commemorating the day when Hungarians rallied against the Austrian Empire.

  • Today is Belarus Constitution Day (a real day, but, well, the government does not respect the constitution). 

Economic Reports/Events –

  • ECB Board Member Philip R. Lane gives a guest lecture at Imperial College Business School in London, United Kingdom.

  • Germany Wholesale Prices (February)

  • France Inflation Rate Final (February), Harmonized Inflation Rate Final (February)

  • Slovakia Core Inflation Rate (February), CPI (February), Inflation Rate (February)

  • Italy Inflation Rate Final (February), Harmonized Inflation Rate Final (February), Retail Sales (January), Balance of Trade (January)

  • Poland Inflation Rate (February), Balance of Trade (January), Current Account (January)

  • Greece Construction Output Q4

  • Romania Current Account (January)

  • Russia Building Permits (January)

  • Ukraine Balance of Trade (January)

  • Turkey Budget Balance (February)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Israel Inflation Rate (February)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nigeria Food Inflation (February)

  • Angola Interest Rate Decision, Foreign Exchange Reserves (February), M3 Money Supply (February)

  • Ghana Inflation Rate (February)

 

 

Saturday, March 16, 2024

Global

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Guam holds its Republican presidential primary.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • Russian presidential Elections continue.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Angola Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

  • Nigeria Inflation (February)

  • Botswana Inflation (February)

  • Eswatini Inflation (February)

 

 

Sunday, March 17, 2024

Global

  • Today is St. Patrick’s Day.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Maldives holds legislative elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Francis Kelly
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