The Global Week Ahead

Written By Francis Kelly

August 27 - September 3, 2023

This coming Friday is the first day of the meteorological autumn.  Goodbye, Summer, and welcome to what we expect will be a hectic fall.  

In the coming week, we are watching several significant geopolitical events - three of which deal with China. First, U.S. Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo begins a four-day visit to Beijing to discuss trade issues – the sale of semiconductors being the paramount issue for China.  Second, while she is there, Tuesday, British Foreign Secretary James Cleverly will meet his Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi, in Beijing. Cleverly will be the first UK Foreign Secretary to visit China in five years.  And third, on Friday, Dutch restrictions on the export of chip manufacturing equipment to China go into effect (The Netherlands is home to ASML, the world’s most valuable chip tool maker and a one-time major supplier of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China).

Also in Europe this week, foreign and defense ministers from the Baltic States and Poland will meet to discuss the growing threat of Russian Wagner Group forces who have amassed in Belarus on the Polish border.

On the global economic radar screen this week, markets will be watching closely the U.S. GDP employment figures and inflation indicators, giving them a sharper insight into the Federal Reserve’s possible thinking on future monetary tightening.

China will release PMIs this week in the face of growing economic headwinds.  And several important Eurozone CPIs will be out, including Germany’s. 

Here is what else we are watching around the world this coming week:

Sunday, August 27, 2023

Global

  • Nothing Significant to Report (NSTR)

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong visits Vietnam through August 29.  He will meet with Vietnamese Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh to discuss improving trade and security issues as well as witness the ground-breaking of several new industrial parks.  This marks the 50th anniversary of diplomatic relations between the two nations and the 10th year since they signed a strategic partnership.

  • North Korea is expected to launch a second spy satellite in the coming days after a previous effort - “Chollima-1” failed in May.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • China Industrial Profits (July)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Turkey's opposition People's Democratic Party will hold its fourth annual grand congress in Ankara.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

 

Monday, August 28, 2023

Global

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Former President Donald Trump has a hearing before Judge Tanya Chutkan in Washington, D.C., regarding the criminal charges brought against him for involvement in the January 6th insurrection.

  • Today is the 60th anniversary of Martin Luther King’s “I Have a Dream” speech on the steps of the Lincoln Memorial in Washington, D.C.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr participates in the "Banking Services" roundtable discussion with the Confederated Salish and Kootenai Tribes Council in Pablo, Montana.

  • Brazil Bank Lending (July), BCB Focus Market Readout

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Workers at a Chevron Wheatstone liquified natural gas facility in Australia will vote on whether to permit unions to strike.  The risk of a strike led to a spike in natural gas prices in Europe in the last few weeks, but now with a deal in sight, prices tumbled in the last few days.

  • Three Canadian naval ships will visit Yokosuka Port in Tokyo Bay to be refueled.  The visit is part of Canada’s strategy to increase the country’s role in maintaining security in greater Indo-China.

  • Japan will launch the moon lander for its "Moon Sniper" mission. They hope to land on a small crater close to the Moon’s equator on the side facing Earth.

  • Tropical storm Saola will hit maximum strength east of the Philippines and may be designated as a super typhoon.

  • Yamaguchi Natsuo, leader of Japan’s Komeito Party (which is the junior partner in the ruling coalition), meets Chinese officials in Beijing.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • China Industrial Profits (July)

  • Japan Coincident Index (June), Leading Economic Index (June)

  • Australia Retail Sales (July)

  • Taiwan Consumer Confidence (August)

  • Philippines Budget Balance (July)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • Officials from Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania will meet in Warsaw, Poland, to discuss the possibility of a complete border closure with Belarus.  In recent weeks, Wagner Group forces have increased their presence on the Polish border, leading to a Polish military build-up to counter any possible aggression.

  • Ukraine's Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba will meet his Czech counterpart, Jan Lipavsky, in Prague.

  • The European Parliament returns to work in Brussels.  Multiple committee meetings are scheduled throughout the week.  Among the key issues they will focus on is a €50 billion initiative to support Ukraine’s recovery, reconstruction, and modernization from 2024 to 2027.

  • The Bled Strategic Forum will be held in Bled, Slovenia, through August 29.  Attendees will include leaders from Southern and Southwestern Europe.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Eurozone Loans to Households and Companies (July)

  • Ireland Retail Sales (July)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Saudi Arabia Private Bank Lending (July)

  • Qatar GDP (Q1)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

 

Tuesday, August 29, 2023

Global

  • NSTR

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr participates in the "Banking Services" roundtable discussion with the Blackfeet Business Council in Browning, Montana.

  • US S&P/Case Shiller Indexes (June), JOLTs Job Reports (July), Dallas Fed Services Index (August), Redbook (August 26)

  • Mexico GDP (Q2), Economic Activity (June)

  • Colombia Business Confidence (July)

  • El Salvador Current Account (Q2)

  • Uruguay Unemployment (July)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

 

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (September)

  • France Consumer Confidence (August)

  • Spain Retail Sales (July)

  • Hungary GDP (Q2), Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Qatar Balance of Trade (July)

  • Turkey Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (July), Economic Confidence Index (August)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

  

 

Wednesday, August 30, 2023 

Global

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • US GDP (Q2), PCDE Prices (Q2),  MBA Mortgage Indexes (August 25), ADP Employment Change (August ()Goods Trade Balance (July), Corporate Profits (Q2), Real Consumer Spending (Q2), Pending Home Sales (July)

  • Brazil IGP-M Inflation (August), PPI (July), Net Payrolls (July)

  • Mexico Fiscal Balance (July)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Bank of Japan Board Member Naoki Tamura will give a speech at a meeting with local leaders in Eastern Hokkaido, Consumer Confidence (August)

  • New Zealand Building Permits (July)

  • Philippines PPI (July)

  • Australia Monthly CPI Indicator. (July), Building Permits (July)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • Today is the La Tomatina Festival in Buñol, Spain.  More than 20,000 people are expected to show up and throw tomatoes at each other.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Eurozone  Economic Sentiment (August), New Car Registrations (July)

  • Germany Inflation (August), Import Prices (July)

  • UK Mortgage Approvals (July), BoE Consumer Credit (July)

  • Italy Business Confidence/Consumer Confidence (August), Industrial Sales (June)

  • Spain Inflation (August), Business Confidence (August)

  • Ireland Inflation (August)

  • Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (August), Economic Sentiment Index (August)

  • Bulgaria PPI (July), Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

  • Hungary Retail Sales

  • Bosnia & Herzegovina Inflation (July), PPI (July), Retail Sales (July)

  • Russia Business Confidence (August), Corporate Profits (June), Retail Sales (July), Unemployment (July)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

  

 

Thursday, August 31, 2023

Global

  • NSTR

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Susan Collins speaks virtually on creating an economy that works for all, and the role community colleges play in the nation's essential development of its people and workforce before the Bunker Hill Community College annual convocation in Boston, Massachusetts.

  • Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic speaks on the economic outlook in a moderated conversation hosted by Broward College in Davie, Florida.

  • US  Core PCE Price Index (July), Personal Income (July), Initial Jobless Claims (August 26), Challenger Job Cuts (August), Chicago PMI (August)

  • Canada CFIB Business Barometer (August), Current Account (Q2)

  • Brazil Nominal Budget Balance (July), Gross Debt to GDP (July), Unemployment (July)

  • Mexico Unemployment (July)

  • Chile Copper Production (July), Industrial Production (July), Manufacturing Production (July), Retail Sales (July)

  • Argentina Consumer Confidence (August), Tax Revenue (August)

  • Colombia Cement Production (July), Unemployment (July)

  • Uruguay Balance of Trade (July)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Indonesian military forces will team with US military forces to host “Super Garuda Shield,” a military drill in East Java that will run through mid-September.  20 other countries will participate, including Japan, Singapore, Australia, and the UK.

  • Pope Francis begins a visit to Mongolia through September 4.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • China NBS Manufacturing PMI (August), NBS General PMI (August)

  • Bank of Japan Board Member Toyoaki Nakamura will give a speech at a meeting with local leaders in Gifu, Japan, Japan Industrial Production (July), Retail Sales (July), Housing Starts (July)

  • India GDP (Q2)

  • South Korea Industrial Production (July), Retail Sales (July)

  • Australia Private Sector Credit (July)

  • New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence (August)

  • Singapore Bank Lending (July)

  • Hong Kong Retail Sales (July)

  • Thailand Industrial Production (July), Current Account ((July), Retail Sales (July)

  • Sri Lanka Inflation (August)

  • Pakistan Consumer Confidence (August)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Turkey GDP (Q2), MPC Meeting Summary, FX Reserves (August 25)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Uganda Inflation (August)

  • Nigeria FX Reserves (August)

  • South Africa PPI (July), Balance of Trade (July)

 

 

Friday, September 1, 2023

Global

  • Albania assumes the presidency of the UN Security Council for the month of September.

  • Today is the first day of the meteorological autumn in the Northern Hemisphere.  Goodbye, Summer.  We will miss you.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Singapore holds presidential elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (August)

  • Japan Capital Spending (Q2)

  • India Government Budget Value (July), Infrastructure Output (July), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

  • South Korea Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (August), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

  • Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

  • Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

  • Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

  • Singapore SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (July), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

  • Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August), Business Confidence (August)

  • Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI (August), Home Loans (July), CoreLogic Dwelling Prices (August), Commodity Prices (August)

  • New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (August)

  • Indonesia Inflation (August)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • Dutch export controls over semiconductor chip equipment to China go into effect.  ASML is headquartered in the Netherlands, the world’s most valuable chip tool maker.

  • NATO will conclude its “Agile Spirit 2023” exercises in Georgia.

  • The maiden flight of the Spanish-built Miura 1 rocket launched from Moguer, Spain.

  • France’s controversial pension reform comes into force.

  • In the UK, Aslef union members (train drivers) will go on strike for more pay.

  • Also, in the UK, the sale of fluorescent lightbulbs for household use is banned as of today.

  • Economic Reports/Events –

  • Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing PMI (August)

  • Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (August)

  • France Budget Balance (July), HCOB Manufacturing PMI (August), New Car Registrations (July)

  • Spain HCOB Manufacturing PMI (August), New Car Registrations (August)

  • Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI (August)

  • Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI (August), GDP (Q2),  GNP (Q2), PPI (July)

  • Hungary S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August), Balance of Trade (June), GDP (Q2), HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (August)

  • Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

  • Switzerland Inflation (August), CPI (August), procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (August)

  • Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Turkey Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (August)

 

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • South Africa Total Vehicle Sales (August)

 

 

 

Saturday, September 2, 2023

Global

  • NSTR

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

  •  

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • The China International Fair for Trade in Services begins in Beijing.  A large number of foreign tech companies are expected to attend.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • In the UK, 20,000 RMT union members across 14 train companies go on strike for 24 hours over pay and working conditions.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Cote D’Ivoire holds regional and municipal elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

 

Sunday, September 3, 2023

Global

  • NSTR

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

  •  

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

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Francis Kelly
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