The Global Week Ahead

May 21 - 28, 2023

This week, global markets will continue to be glued on the ongoing debt ceiling battle in Washington, D.C. Negotiations between House Republicans and the White House have become contentious (again).  President Biden is curtailing his Asian travels to return to Washington to try and hammer out a deal.  As of this writing, both sides are considerably far apart as the “X-Date” of June 1st rapidly approaches.  We will send out separate updates to clients on what we are seeing with the debt ceiling negotiations, but our overall sense is that the talks will go right down to the wire.  The big question is: Will they have enough time to pass whatever deal they hammer out and get enough support from the various Congressional factions before June 1st? 

Also, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is expected to announce his presidential candidacy this week.  Senator Tim Scott (R-SC) filed paperwork this past Friday and is expected to announce his intention to run for the presidency this week.

Elsewhere, APEC is holding high-level meetings in Detroit this week, and we will be watching carefully as U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo and U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai are expected to have sideline conversations with Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao.  If this meeting takes place, markets should see it as a positive move which will likely lead to more high-level bilateral discussions between Washington and Beijing.

On the global economic and financial front, the European Central Bank celebrates its 25th anniversary this week.  Regarding key data being reported this week, we look forward to reading the Federal Reserve’s Open Markets Committee minutes which will be released on Wednesday.  Hopefully, it will give investors a sense if there is more upside in rate increases or if the Fed is finished (for now). 

We will also look at global PMIs coming out this week and US PCE to understand whether inflation is under control and where the global economy is going in the months ahead.

Here is what else we are watching around the world this coming week:

Sunday, May 21, 2023

Global

·       The UN’s Seventy-sixth World Health Assembly begins in Geneva, Switzerland, and goes through May 30th.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Chile will hold Constitutional Council representative elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       U.S. President Joe Biden will hold a trilateral meeting with South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida in Hiroshima, Japan.

·       German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will visit Seoul to meet South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol.

·       French President Emmanuel Macron begins a two-day state visit to Mongolia.

·       East Timor holds parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Greece holds elections for 300 seats in the national parliament. Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis's New Democracy party leads in the polls, but the election may not produce an outright winner, leading to a second vote in July, which is expected.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Saudi Arabia will put its first astronauts into space on the SpaceX Axiom Mission 2 rocket.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Monday, May 22, 2023 

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the United Nations Integrated Transition Assistance Mission in Sudan (UNITAMS). Volker Perthes, the Special Representative of the Secretary-General for Sudan and Head of the United Nations Integrated Transition Assistance Mission in Sudan, will be in New York to brief Council members.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) trade ministers meeting will be held in Detroit, Michigan.  On the sidelines, US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo and US Trade Representative Katherine Tai are expected to meet with Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao – a significant event that is expected to help kick-start high-level talks between Washington and Beijing.

·       U.K. Foreign Secretary James Cleverly continues visits to Jamaica, Colombia, Chile, and Brazil.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Tom Barkin and Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic will speak at a Richmond Fed event entitled “Technology-Enabled Disruption Conference: Uncertainty and Prospects for Disruptive Investments” in Richmond, Virginia.

·       Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard participates in a fireside chat at the American Gas Association Financial Forum in Fort Lauderdale, Florida. 

·       San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly participates in a virtual fireside chat at the  NABE – Banque de France International Economic Symposium being held in Paris, France.

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

·       El Salvador Balance of Trade (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Indian prime minister Narendra Modi to co-chair a summit of Pacific Island leaders with his counterpart in Papua New Guinea, James Marape.  President Biden was scheduled to attend but had to cancel to return to Washington to deal with the debt crisis.  U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken will attend.

·       Dutch Foreign Minister Wopke Hoekstra will visit China through Wednesday.  The Netherlands is among China's largest trade partners in the European Union. While their trade cooperation significantly increased over the past years, their bilateral relations deteriorated after the Dutch government raised issues related to human rights in China.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Loan Prime Rate 1Y, Lona Prime Rate 5Y

·       Japan Machinery Orders (March), Jibun Bank Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMIs (May)

·       Taiwan Export Orders (April), Unemployment (April)

·       Hong Kong Inflation (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Foreign Affairs Council meets in Brussels through May 25th.  The EU foreign affairs ministers will discuss the Russian War on Ukraine, the situation in the Balkans, Central Asia, and Tunisia, and then approve the Civilian SDP Compact.

·       The EU-Republic of Korea Summit will be held in Brussels.  It marks the 60th anniversary of EU-South Korean diplomatic relations.  They are expected to discuss the Russian War on Ukraine, trade issues, including market access for agri-food products, labor issues, sustainable issues, and digital and data protection

·       The EU Competitive Council meets through May 23rd.   they are expected to discuss the issue of eco-design requirements for sustainable products, long-term competitiveness in communications, and the Critical Raw Materials Act.

·       In the UK, members of the Public and Commercial Services Union who work as customer service advisors on personal taxation go on strike.  

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Vice-Chair Luis de Guindo gives opening remarks at a workshop entitled "Policy proposals to reduce the climate insurance protection gap" jointly organized by ECB and EIOPA in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       ECB Board Member Philip Lane Philip R. Lane participates in a policy panel, "The Great Volatility: How to cope? What is different this time? How to manage side effects and tradeoffs?" at the 50th OeNB Economics Conference and 60th SUERF Anniversary Conference "Monetary policy in uncertain times: Towards robustness and resilience" in Vienna, Austria. 

·       ECB Board Member William Elderson gives a guest lecture at the University of Utrecht in Utrecht, Germany.

·       Eurozone Construction Output (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Consumer Confidence (May)

·       Israel Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Manufacturing PMI (April)

·       Lebanon Inflation (April – currently 263%)

·       Qatar Total Credit Growth (April), M2 Money Supply (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The annual meetings of the board of governors of the African Development Bank and the African Development Fund takes place in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt, through May 26th.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ghana Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

Tuesday, May 23, 2023

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on the Protection of civilians in armed conflict: Ensuring the security and dignity of civilians in conflict: Addressing food insecurity and protecting essential services. Secretary-General António Guterres is expected to deliver remarks. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       FDIC Chair Marty Gruenberg and Acting Comptroller of the Currency Michael Hsu give keynote remarks at the Bank on National Conference in Washington, D.C.

·       Former Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke, former Federal Reserve Vice Chair Richard Clarida, and former Chair of the Council of Economic Advisors Jason Furman participate on a panel at the Brookings Institution entitled “The Fed: Lessons learned from the past three years” in Washington, D.C.

·       Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva hosts a summit for South American leaders in Brasília.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US S&P Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMIs (May), Redbook, Richmond Red Manufacturing Index and Services Index (May), Building Permits (April)

·       Canada PPI (April), Raw Material Prices (March)

·       Peru GDP (Q1)

·       Argentina Economic Activity (March)

·       Costa Rica Balance of Trade (April)

·       Paraguay Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin begins a two-day visit to Beijing.  He is bringing a large business delegation in the hope of securing new trade agreements.  He will conclude his visit by attending the Russia-China Business Forum in Shanghai.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMIs (May), Westpac Leading Index (April)

·       South Korea Consumer Confidence (May)

·       Taiwan Industrial Production (April), Retail Sales (April)

·       Singapore Current Account (Q1), CPI (April), Inflation (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The President of  Republika Srpska (the Serb-majority entity in Bosnia-Herzegovina), Milorad Dodik, meets with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow.  Dodik is on the US Treasury’s sanctions list for alleged corruption and for threatening Bosnian and regional stability.  The purpose of the meeting is to seek greater cooperation from Russia.

·       The EU European Economic Area Council meets in Brussels.

·       The London Defense Conference begins and runs through Thursday. Among the featured speakers will be Ukraine and U.K. government representatives, with debates on Indo-Pacific and European security and a speech by Shadow Defense Secretary John Healey.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Vice-Chair Luis de Guindos gives a  keynote address at the 3rd Annual European Financial Integration Conference, "What is the state of Eurozone financial integration in 2023?" organized by the Association for Financial Markets in Europe (AFME) and Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum (OMFIF) in Frankfurt, Germany. 

·       ECB Board Member Kerstin af Jochnick participates in a conversation with
Robert Priester, Institute of International Finance, at the 2023 IIF European Summit in Brussels, Belgium.

·       ECB Board Member Andrea Enria participates in a fireside chat at the 3rd Annual European Financial Integration Conference "What is the state of Eurozone financial integration in 2023?" organized by Association for Financial Markets in Europe (AFME) and Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum (OMFIF) in Frankfurt, Germany. 

·       Eurozone Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMIs (May), Current Account (March)

·       France HCOB Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMIs (May)

·       Germany Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMIs (May)

·       UK Public Sector Borrowing (April), S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMIs (May)

·       Italy Current Account (March)

·       Hungary Central Bank Interest Rate Decision (May)

·       Slovenia Consumer Confidence (May), Unemployment (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Bloomberg hosts the Qatar Economic Forum in Doha, Qatar.  Among those scheduled to speak are TikTok CEO Shou Chew, Blackstone Chair & CEO Stephen Schwartzman, and IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Manufacturing Production (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria Central Bank Interest Rate Decision  

Wednesday, May 24, 2023

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the Middle East. In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the 1718 Committee (dealing with North Korea).

·       UN Secretary-General António Guterres and the Governments of Italy, Qatar, the United Kingdom, and the United States, in collaboration with the Governments of Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia, will convene a High-level Pledging Event to Support the Humanitarian Response in the Horn of Africa. The Secretary-General is expected to deliver remarks. 

·       The UN in Geneva will hold a press conference on Global Climate Update with predictions for 2023-2027. Prof Petteri Taalas, the Secretary-General of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), and Dr Leon Hermanson, Met Office climate scientist, will brief reporters.  

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The U.S. House Committee on Oversight and Accountability holds a hearing on “A Failure of Supervision: Bank Failures and the San Francisco Federal Reserve.”

·       Ecuador celebrates the Battle of Pichincha Day, a national holiday marking the battle on May 24, 1822, when 3,000 rebel troops fought against Spanish troops for the liberation of the Quito province.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) Minutes

·       US MBA Mortgage Index Figures (May 19th)

·       Canada Manufacturing Sales (April), Wholesale Sales (April)

·       Mexico Inflation Figures (May)

·       Brazil IGP-M Inflation (May)

·       Argentina Consumer Confidence (May)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Quadrilateral Dialogue (Quad) Leaders’ Summit is to be held in Sydney, Australia.  Composed of the leaders of India, Japan, Australia, and the US, they are expected to discuss how to build a stronger multilateral security apparatus in the Indo-Pacific.  President Biden will not be attending as he is expected to return to the US to deal with the pending debt ceiling crisis.

·       South Korea launches its third Nuri rocket, carrying an observation satellite into low Earth orbit. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Business Confidence (May)

·       Japan Tankan Index (May)

·       Australia Reserve Bank Payments System Board Meeting, Reserve Bank of Australia Head of Domestic Markets David Jacobs speaks at the Australia Fixed Income Forum in Tokyo, Japan.

·       Taiwan M2 Money Supply (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Wall Street Journal CEO Council Summit convenes in London and runs through Thursday.  Among the speakers will be Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, Elon Musk, and UBS Chairman Colm Kelleher.

·       In the UK, union workers at the GSK pharmaceutical company go on strike at six sites across England and Scotland.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Non-Monetary Policy Meeting

·       ECB President Christine Lagarde gives opening remarks at the celebration to mark the 25th anniversary of the ECB in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Bank of England Governors Andrew Bailey speaks at the Net Zero Delivery Summit in London.

·       Germany Ifo Business Climate/Current Conditions (May)

·       UK Inflation (April), CPI (April), Retail Prices (April), CBI Industrial Trends Orders (May), Car Production (April)

·       Hungary Gross Wage (March)

·       Russia PPI (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Business Confidence (May), Capacity Utilization (May)

·       Israel Composite Economic Index (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Eritrea celebrates Independence Day, marking the day Eritrean People’s Liberation Front forces moved into the capital city of Asmara and reinstated independence after a war against the Ethiopian military regime.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Inflation (April)

·       Nigeria GDP (Q1) 

Thursday, May 25, 2023

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on Peace and security in Africa.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is expected to file paperwork formally declaring his candidacy for the US presidency.

·       Argentina celebrates May Revolution Day, marking the day when Argentinians first began to fight for independence from Spain.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Chicago Fed National Activity Index (April), Corporate Profits (Q1), GDP Price Index (Q1), GDP Growth Rate Index (Q1), Jobless Claims 4-Week Average (May 20th), Real Consumer Spending (Q1), Core CPE Prices (Q1), Pending Home Sales (April), Kansas Fed Composite & Manufacturing Indexes (May)

·       Canada CFIB Business Barometer (May), Average Weekly Earnings (March)

·       Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (May)

·       Mexico Balance of Trade (April), Current Account (Q1)

·       Colombia Business Confidence (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The 28th Future of Asia, hosted by Nikkei, begins in Tokyo.  Speakers at the two-day event include Singapore Deputy Prime Minister Lawrence Wong, Thai Deputy Prime Minister Don Pramudwinai, Vietnam Deputy Prime Minister Tran Luu Quang, Sri Lanka President Ranil Wickremesinghe, and Laos President Thongloun Sisoulith 

·       China hosts the annual Zhongguancun Forum, which focuses on cutting-edge technology, including AI and quantum science. The event, being held in Beijing, will have participants from more than 80 countries.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, PPI (April)

·       Philippines Budget Balance (April)

·       Malaysia Coincident Index (March), Leading Index (March)

·       Indonesia Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Armenian President Nikol Pashinian and Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev will hold peace talks in Moscow.  Russian President Vladimir Putin will host.

·       EU Trade Ministers meet as part of the Foreign Affairs Council meetings in Brussels.  They will talk about trade relations with the U.S. (in the wake of the Inflation Reduction Act), trade relations with China, and preparation for the 13th Ministerial Conference of the World Trade Organization.

·       In the UK, more than 1,400 security officers at Heathrow Airport resume strikes over pay, part of an eight-day action throughout May.  Significant delays are expected at the airport.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Vice-Chair Luis de Guindos gives a  presentation of the ECB Annual Report 2022 at the ECON Committee in Brussels, Belgium. 

·       Bank of England Jonathan Haskel (a member of the Monetary Policy Committee) gives a speech at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington, D.C.

·       Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (June), GDP Growth Rate (Q1)

·       France Business Confidence (May), Business Climate Indicator (May)

·       UK CBI Distributive Trades (May), IPCA CPI (May)

·       Spain PPI (April)

·       Serbia Business Confidence (May), Tourist Arrivals (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Jordan celebrates Independence Day, marking the day in 1948 when they were granted sovereignty from Great Britain.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Balance of Trade (March)

·       Turkey Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

Africa

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa PPI (April), Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

·       Zimbabwe Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

Friday, May 26, 2023

Global

·       NSTR

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Guyana celebrates Independence Day, marking the day in 1966 when the country was granted independence from Great Britain in 1966.

·       Bermuda celebrates Bermuda Day, a national holiday, and all financial markets are closed.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Personal Income (April), Core PCE Price Index (April), Durable Goods Orders (April), Retail Inventories (April), Wholesale Inventories (April), Michigan Consumer Expectations (May), Michigan Current Conditions (May), Michigan Inflation Expectations (May)

·       Canada Budget Balance (March)

·       Brazil Current Account (April), Foreign Direct Investment (April)

·       Mexico GDP (Q1), Economic Activity (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

Hong Kong celebrates Buddha’s Birthday, a holiday with all financial markets being closed.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan took Core CPI (May), Coincident Index (March), Leading Economic Index (March)

·       India FX Reserves (May 19th)

·       Singapore GDP (Q1)

·       Australia Retail Sales (April)

·       Singapore Industrial Production (April)

·       Thailand Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (April)

·       Malaysia Inflation (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Georgia celebrates Independence Day, marking the date when the country was first briefly declared independent in 1918.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Board Member Andrea Enria participates in a fireside chat on "European banking vigilance and the integration to be completed" at the 18th edition of the Trento Festival of Economics in Trento, Italy. 

·       ECB Board Member Philip R. Lane participates in a panel discussion "How quickly will inflation return to target?" at the 29th Dubrovnik Economic Conference in Dubrovnik, Croatia. 

·       France Consumer Confidence (May), Unemployment (April)

·       Italy Business Confidence (May), Consumer Confidence (May)

·       UK Retail Sales (April)

·       Hungary Unemployment (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Tourist Arrivals (April)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       Congolese President Felix Tshisekedi visits China for meetings regarding mining contracts and security cooperation. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Mozambique GDP (Q1) 

Saturday, May 27, 2023

Global

·       NSTR

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil Federal Tax Revenues (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Industrial Profits (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Mauritania holds the second round of voting for its parliament.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR 

Sunday, May 28, 2023

Global

·       NSTR

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Azerbaijan marks the founding of the Democratic Republic following its liberation from the Soviet Union in 1991.

·       India inaugurates its new parliament building in New Delhi.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Spain holds local and regional elections in 12 of the country’s 17 regions. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Turkey holds its Presidential run-off election.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Private Lending (April), M3 Money Supply (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is the National Day of Ethiopia, also known as the Downfall of the Derg, the military regime of Mengistu Haile Mariam in 1991.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR 

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