The Global Week Ahead

December 24 - 31, 2023

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!

Our apologies for getting this note out a bit late - the Christmas rush and family time took precedence. We hope you had a wonderful Christmas Day and are enjoying a quiet week rolling into New Year’s Day. Unfortunately, that will not be happening in Israel or Ukraine as their respective wars continue apace.   Elsewhere in the world this coming week, we will be watching as leaders from the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) gather in Moscow to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss trade and economic integration – all part of efforts by Putin to keep the Russian economy afloat in the face of tightening sanctions.

Also this week, Taiwan’s three presidential candidates will participate in a debate on national television in advance of the elections on January 13.  The latest polls – which are being closely watched by Beijing – show a tightening between Taiwan Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) Lai Ching-te and Nationalist Party (KMT or Kuomintang) Hou Yu-ih.  Lai is leading by less than 4 percent.  The KMT is seen as more accommodating to China.

Finally, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas will travel later this week to Mexico City for meetings with President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) in an effort to find a solution to the boom in illegal aliens crossing the US southern border.

Turning to the economic data calendar, it will be a relatively light week.  There is only one major central bank speech  - Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazua's speech in Tokyo.  The main economic data releases the markets will watch this week are China's industrial profits and current account figures. 

Here is what else we are watching around the world this shortened week:

Sunday, December 24, 2023

Global

• It is Christmas Eve and NORAD (the North American Aerospace Defense Command) will once again be tracking Santa Claus as he flies around the world.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Libya celebrates Independence Day, commemorating the day in 1951 when the country gained independence from France and Britain after the U.N. General Assembly voted for its independence.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Tunisia holds local elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Monday, December 25, 2023

Global

• It is Christmas Day.  Merry Christmas!

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• The US Federal Government is closed; banks and stock exchanges closed.

• Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Indian Foreign Minister Foreign Minister S Jaishankar is expected to meet with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in Moscow.  This meeting is taking the place of the usual leaders’ summit between President Putin and Indian Prime Minister Modi.

• China and five Southeast Asian countries (Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Thailand, and Vietnam) will hold the 4th Lancang-Mekong Cooperation leaders' meeting via videoconference.  China’s Premier Li Qiang will attend.

• Japan's SLIM (Smart Lander for Investigating the Moon) craft will enter the moon's orbit ahead of the country's attempt at its first lunar landing.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazua gives a speech at a meeting of the Councilors of Keidanren (Japan Business Federation) in Tokyo.

• Japan Coincident Index (October), leading Economic Index (October)

• Taiwan Industrial Production (November), Retail Sales (November), M2 Money Supply (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• All EU governments closed.  Banks and stock exchanges closed.

• Russian President Vladimir Putin will host the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council in Moscow.  He will also attend an informal meeting of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) heads of state seeking ways to tighten trade and economic relations.

• Iran and the Eurasian Economic Union sign free trade agreement in St. Petersburg, Russia.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Israel Composite Economic Index (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Today is the deadline for Ethiopia to make an interest payment on its $1 billion Eurobond.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, December 26, 2023

Global

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• US Chicago Fed National Activity Index (November), Redbook (December 22), S&P/Case Shiller Home Price (October), Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (December)

• Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Japan Unemployment (November)

• Singapore CPI (November), Inflation (November), Industrial Production (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Today is Boxing Day in the UK and in most Commonwealth nations.  Banks and financial markets are closed.

• Today is Independence Day in Slovenia, celebrating when the country declared its independence in 1990.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Spain PPI (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Saudi Arabia Balance of Trade (October)

• Turkey Business Confidence (December), Capacity Utilization (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report. 

Wednesday, December 27, 2023

Global

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• U.S. Secretary of State Antony Antony Blinken and Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas will arrive in Mexico to discuss the recent surge in migration with President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador.

• Argentina’s General Labor Confederation (CGT) has called for mass demonstrations in Buenos Aires to protest against President Javier Milei’s reforms.  However, the CGT has not called for nationwide strikes (yet).  

Economic Reports/Events –

• US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (December), Richmond Fed Services Index (December), Dallas Fed Services Index (December), MBA Mortgage Market Index (December 22), MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (December 22)

• Brazil Bank Lending (November)

• Argentina Retail Sales (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• New Japanese sanctions will go into effect on entities in Belarus, the United Arab Emirates, Armenia, and a number of other entities over their role in the Russia-Ukraine war.

Economic Reports/Events –

• China Industrial Profits (November)

• Bank of Japan Summary of Opinions, Housing Starts (November), Construction Orders (November)

• India M3 Money Supply (December 1)

• Taiwan Consumer Confidence (December)

• South Korea Consumer Confidence (December)

• Malaysia PPI (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index (December)

• Russia GDP (November), Unemployment (November), Business Confidence (December), Corporate Profits (October), Industrial Production (November), Real Wage Growth (October), Retail Sales (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Israel Manufacturing Production (October), M1 Money Supply (October & November)

• Kuwait Private Bank Lending (November), M2 Money Supply (November)

• Qatar GDP (Q3), Balance of Trade (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Zimbabwe Inflation (December) 

Thursday, December 28, 2023

Global

• Today is the 50th anniversary of the publication of the “Gulag Archipelago” by Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• US Goods Trade Balance (November), Initial Jobless Claims (December 23), Retail Inventories (November), Wholesale Inventories (November), Pending Home Sales (November)

• Canada CFIB Business Barometer (December)

• Mexico Unemployment (November)

• Brazil IGP-M Inflation (December), IPCA Mid-Month CPI (December), Net Payrolls (November)

• Argentina Consumer Confidence (December), Current Account (Q3)

• Paraguay Current Account (Q3)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Japan Industrial Production (November), Retail Sales (November)

• South Korea Business Confidence (December), Industrial Production (November), Retail Sales (November)

• Hong Kong Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (November)

• Philippines Budget Balance (November)

• Thailand Industrial Production (November), Current Account (November), Private Consumption (November), Private Investment (November), Retail Sales (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• France Unemployment Benefits Claims (November)

• Spain Retail Sales (November)

• Bulgaria Tourist Arrivals (November)

• Slovenia Retail Sales (November)

• Montenegro Balance of Trade (November), Tourist Arrivals (November)

• North Macedonia Retail Sales (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Saudi Arabia Unemployment Rate (Q3), Private Bank Lending (November), M3 Money Supply (November)

• Bahrain Inflation (November)

• Turkey Economic Confidence Index (December), MPC Meeting Summary, FX Reserves (December 22)

• Jordan Industrial Production (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Friday, December 29, 2023

Global

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• US Chicago PMI (December)

• Mexico Fiscal Balance (November)

• Brazil Gross Debt to GDP (November), Nominal Budget Balance (November), Unemployment (November)

• Chile Copper Production (November), Industrial Production (November), Manufacturing Production (November), Retail Sales (November)

• Colombia Unemployment (November)

• Paraguay Inflation (December), Current Account (Q2)

• Uruguay Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, GDP (Q3), Current Account (Q3)

• Costa Rica Current Account (Q3)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Today is Independence Day in Mongolia, commemorating the day Mongols officially declared their independence from China in 1911.  Mongolia only remained independent for a few years before Chinese forces took back the country, but in 1921, with the help of Soviet troops, regained its independence and, in 1924, established a new government.

Economic Reports/Events –

• China Current Account (Q3)

• South Korea CPI (December), Inflation (December)

• India Current Account (Q3), External Debt (Q3), Infrastructure Output (November), Government Budget Value (November), Bank Loan Growth (December 15), Deposit Growth (December 15), FX Reserves (December 22)

• Philippines PPI (November)

• Hong Kong M3 Money Supply (November)

• Singapore Import/Export Prices (November), PPI (November), Bank Lending (November)

• Vietnam Balance of Trade (December), GDP (Q4), Industrial Production (December), Inflation (December), Retail Sales (December), Tourist Arrivals (December)

• Indonesia M2 Money Supply (November)

• Malaysia M3 Money Supply (November)

• Vietnam FDI (December)

• Sri Lanka Inflation (December), Unemployment (Q4)

• Pakistan Consumer Confidence (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Spain Inflation (December)

• Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (December)

• Bulgaria Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Business Confidence (December), PPI (December)

• Slovakia Business Confidence (December), Consumer Confidence (December)

• Slovenia CPI (December), Inflation (December)

• Hungary Retail Sales (November), Industrial Production (November), Current Account (Q3)

• Serbia Balance of Trade (November), Industrial Production (November), Retail Sales (November)

• Greece PPI (November), Retail Sales (October)

• Ukraine Current Account (November)

• Russia S&P Global Manufacturing Services & Manufacturing PMIs (December), Inflation (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Turkey Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (November)

• Bahrain GDP (Q3)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• South Africa M3 Money Supply (November), Private Sector Credit (November)

• Uganda Inflation (December)

• Nigeria FX Reserves (December)

• Zambia Balance of Trade (November)

• Kenya GDP (Q3), Inflation (December)

Saturday, December 30, 2023

Global

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Taiwan’s three presidential candidates will debate on national television in advance of the January 13 elections.  Polls are indicating the race is tightening considerably.   The Vice-Presidential candidates will debate on January 1.

• The Philippines celebrates Rizal Day, a national holiday. The day commemorates the life and work of Jośe Rizal, a national hero of the Philippines who was executed in 1896 by a Spanish firing squad.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, December 31, 2023

Global

HAPPY NEW YEAR!  Goodbye 2023, hello 2024!

• Most of the major multinational organizations will see a change in which country is chairing it in 2024.  Russia takes over the presidency of the BRICS tomorrow, Italy takes over the chair of the G7, Brazil takes over the chair of the G20, and Laos will take over the chair of ASEAN tomorrow (January 1).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Today Azerbaijan celebrates International Solidarity Day, a public holiday commemorating the solidarity of the people after the fall of the Soviet Union in 1989.

• Timor-Leste celebrates National Heroes Day, a public holiday commemorating the death anniversary of Nicolau Lobato.  Lobato was the country’s first Prime Minister who was assassinated by Indonesian military forces in 1978.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• The final step of Brexit takes place today as all retained direct EU legislation in the United Kingdom will be revoked under the "Brexit Freedoms" bill.  

• Today is Spain’s last day holding the presidency of the European Council of the European Union. Belgium takes the Presidency of the Council on January 1, 2024.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

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