The Global Week Ahead

Written By Francis Kelly

October 8 - 15, 2023

The free world remains aghast at the horror of the slaughter of innocent Israelis by Palestinian Hamas terrorists on Saturday morning.  Israel is now officially at war, and the entire Middle East is in a maximum state of tension as everyone tries to figure out what comes next.  Does the Iranian proxy terror group Hezbollah attack Israel from Lebanon?  What happens when Israel enters Gaza militarily to seek the freedom of the dozens of Israeli civilians kidnapped by Hamas and to clean out Hamas's military capabilities?  There is a lot to keep an eye on, and we will be reporting on events and what we hear throughout the week.

Meanwhile, this week is a busy election week around the world. General elections are being held in Poland, New Zealand, and Liberia.  A closely watched presidential run-off elections in Ecuador and important regional elections are being held in Bavaria and Hesse, Germany, which will give us a sense of the future strength of the ruling national coalition.  Mozambique and Gibraltar also hold elections this week.

Closer to home, Republicans in the U.S. House of Representatives meet on Tuesday to figure out who will replace former Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy (R-CA).  If they agree on who they want as Speaker  – either House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA) or Representative Jim Jordan (R-OH), the full House of Representatives will likely vote on Wednesday to finalize the decision.  But it is unclear what Republicans will do or when this will be finalized.

On the global economic radar screen, the annual World Bank/IMF meetings get underway in Marrakesh, Morocco.  Central bank heads and finance ministers from around the world will gather to discuss the state of the global economy and coordinate on ways to beat back further inflation.

Several important economic reports are released this week. In the U.S., inflation figures are out on Thursday, along with several other inflation measurements.  The Federal Reserve releases the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, which will give markets a clearer view of whether the Fed is done with raising rates or if one more rate increase is coming.  Numerous Federal Reserve Board members and regional Federal Reserve presidents are giving speeches.

In Europe, UK GDP figures are out on Thursday as European Central Bank meeting minutes are released.   In Asia, China releases inflation data, and trade data are out this week, as are Japan's Economy Watchers Survey and PPI figures.

Finally, several global banks will release earnings and guidance on how they see economic conditions in the coming quarter.

Here is what else we are watching around the world this coming week:

Sunday, October 8, 2023

Global

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report.

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) will hold its 11th ministerial meeting on disaster management in Ha Long, Vietnam, through Oct. 13.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report.

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • Germany’s states of Bavaria and Hesse hold elections.

  • Luxembourg holds Parliamentary elections.

  • Greece holds local elections.

  • The UK’s Labour Party holds its annual conference in Liverpool.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report.

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report.

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report.

 

Monday, October 9, 2023

Global

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Today is Columbus Day, a federal holiday. U.S. stock markets are open, but the bond market and banks are closed.

  • The U.S. Senate is out of session this week for the Columbus Day holiday (today).  The U.S. House of Representatives will be in session as Republicans meet on Tuesday for a “Candidates Forum” to try and select a new Speaker of the House.

  • It is Thanksgiving in Canada.   Markets in Canada are closed.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson gives a speech on the “U.S. Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy Transmission” at the 65th National Association for Business Economics (NABE) Annual Meeting, Dallas, Texas.

  • Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr gives a speech on bank regulation at the American Bankers Association Annual Convention, Nashville, Tennessee.

  • Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan gives a speech on the U.S. economic outlook and monetary policy virtually at the Business Economics 65th Annual meeting.

  • Mexico Inflation (September)

  • Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • South Korea celebrates Hangeul Day, commemorating the day when the Korean alphabet (the Hangul) was invented by 15th-century Korean King Sejong the Great.  North Korea also celebrates Hangul Day on January 15.  Markets are closed.

  • Today is Respect for the Aged Day in Japan.  Markets are closed.

  • Taiwan officially marks today as National Day, a public holiday.  National Day is also celebrated tomorrow, and both are national holidays.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Indonesia Consumer Confidence (September)

  • Singapore FX Reserves (September)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was scheduled to meet Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala in Prague, Czech Republic, and the two leaders' Cabinets will hold a joint session through Oct. 10.  But this is likely to be canceled due to the surprise assault on Israel by Palestinian terror group Hamas Friday.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Israel Budget Balance (September), FX Reserves (September)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • African ministers and executives will attend Africa Oil Week in Cape Town, South Africa, through October 14.  The event will focus on the state of the industry as the continent looks to exploit new petroleum discoveries amid global calls for a just energy transition.

  • Economic Reports/Events –

  • Tanzania Inflation (September)

 

Tuesday, October 10, 2023

Global

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Republicans in the U.S. House of Representatives meet for a “Candidates Forum” in the hope they can find a new Speaker of the House.  Currently, House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA) and House Judiciary Committee Chair Jim Jordan (R-OH) – who has been a leader in the effort to launch an impeachment proceeding against President Joe Biden – are the only two candidates.  If a candidate is chosen, a vote by the full House of Representatives could take place on Wednesday.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech on “The Evolution of Monetary Policy”  at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University Conference: The Legacy of Bennett McCallum and Lessons for Monetary Policy Today, Washington, D.C.

  • Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech on “Financial Stability in Uncertain Times” at the Reinventing Bretton Woods Committee and Policy Center for the New South Marrakesh Economic Festival, Marrakech, Morocco

  • Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller participates in a fireside chat at the E2 Summit in Park City, Utah.

  • Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari participates in a town hall and moderated Q&Q at Minot State University.

  • San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly participates in a virtual town hall in coordination with the Chicago Council on Global Affairs.

  • Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic participates in a fireside chat at the American Bankers Association in Nashville, Tennessee.

  • US NFIB Business Optimism Index (September), Redbook (October 7), Wholesale Inventories (August), Consumer Inflation Expectations (August)

  • Colombia Consumer Confidence (September)

  • Chile Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (September)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Taiwan holds National Day celebrations.  President Tsai Ing-wen will give her last National Day speech as she will finish her term in office next May after eight years in office.  The celebration commemorates the 1911 Wuchang Uprising in China that led to the end of the Qing dynasty and introduced the Republic of China.

  • Japanese Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa will meet with top Vietnamese leaders in Hanoi, Vietnam, until Oct. 11. North Korean officials said such a launch could come anytime between today and October 26th, citing considerations around upcoming events, including a summit between China and Russia, joint military drills between South Korea and the United States, and the expected launch of a South Korean rocket in November.

  • North Korea may attempt its third satellite launch.

  • Today is the deadline for Canada to reduce the size of its diplomatic staff in India.  India’s government demanded the reduction after Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau accused the Indian government of arranging the murder of a Sikh dissident living in Canada.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Japan Current Account (August), Eco Watchers Surveys (September)

  • Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (October), NAB Business Confidence (September), Building Permits (August)

  • Philippines Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (August)

  • Malaysia Unemployment (August)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will visit Romania.

  • EU President Ursula von der Leyden gives the keynote opening speech at the Clean Transition Dialog on Hydrogen in Brussels, Belgium.

Economic Reports/Events –

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Egypt Inflation (September)

  • Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (August)

  • Turkey Industrial Production (August), Unemployment (August)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nigeria Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

  • Rwanda Inflation (September)

 

Wednesday, October 11, 2023

Global

  • The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on Colombia followed by consultations.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • The US. Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee’s minutes are released.

  • Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic speaks on economic conditions at the Metro Atlanta Chamber’s ATLLeaders Lunch in Atlanta, Georgia.

  • US PPIs (September), MBA Mortgage Market Index (October 6)

  • Canada Building Permits (August)

  • Brazil Inflation (September)

  • Peru Balance of Trade (August)

  • Paraguay Balance of Trade (September)

  • El Salvador PPI (September)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • EU Energy Commissioner Kadri Simson will visit China through Oct. 13 and meet the Director of the National Energy Administration Zhang Jianhua, in Beijing.  The meetings come in the wake of news the EU is considering probes into China’s use of subsidies for wind turbine manufacturers.

  • The Tokyo Stock Exchange begins trading carbon credits.   Known as J-Credits, they are earned via business activities that cut emissions, such as using renewable energy and managing forests.  188 companies are participating, as well as local Japanese governments.

  • Malaysia is expected to offer a new law restricting tobacco products to citizens born after 2007.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Japan Reuters Tankan Index (October), Machine Tool Orders (September)

  • South Korea Current Account (August)

  • Philippines FDI (July)

  • Taiwan Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (September)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • NATO defense ministers will hold a two-day meeting in Brussels, Belgium, through Oct. 12.

  • Hungary’s President Viktor Orban visits Georgia for bilateral talks.

  • Gibraltar holds general elections.

  • EU President Ursula von der Leyden, together with Bill Gates, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation Co-chair, Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, WHO Director-General, Catherine Russell, UNICEF Executive Director, and Werner Hoyer, EIB President, launches Global Polio Eradication Initiative in Brussels, Belgium.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Germany Inflation (September), CPI (September)

  • UK RICS House Price Balance (September)

  • Slovakia Construction Output (August)

  • Kosovo Inflation (September)

  • Hungary Central Bank Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

  • Russia Inflation (September), CPI (September)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Turkey Current Account (August), Retail Sales (August)

  • Israel Business Confidence (September)

  • Qatar GDP (Q2)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Ethiopia Inflation (September)

  • Mozambique Inflation (September) 

 

Thursday, October 12, 2023 

Global

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic gives welcoming remarks on the History of National Agriculture Conference in Atlanta, Georgia.

  • US Inflation (September), CPI (September), Initial Jobless Claims (October 7), EIA Natural Goas Stocks Change (October 6), EIA Crude Stocks (October 6), WASDE Report, Monthly Budget Statement (September)

  • Mexico Central Bank Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes,  Industrial Production (August)

  • Colombia Balance of Trade (August)

  • Uruguay Industrial Production (August)

  • Argentina Inflation (September)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • China Outstanding Loan Growth (September), Total Social Financing (September), M2 Money Supply (September),  New Yuan Loans (September), Vehicles Sales (September)

  • India Industrial Production (August), Manufacturing Production (August), Inflation (September)

  • Bank of Japan Board Member Noguchi Asahi speaks to local leaders in Niigata, Japan; Japan PPI (September), Machinery Orders (August), Bank Lending (September)

  • Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (October)

  • Thailand Consumer Confidence (September)

  • Malaysia Industrial Production (August), Retail Sales (August)

  • New Zealand Food Inflation (September)

  • Indonesia Car Sales (September)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier will meet Qatar's Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani in Berlin, Germany.

Economic Reports/Events –

Turkey FX Reserves (October 6)

  • Israel Consumer Confidence (September)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • South Arica Manufacturing Production (August), Mining Production (August), Gold Production (August), SACCI Business Confidence (August & September)

  • Angola Inflation (September)

 

Friday, October 13, 2023 

Global

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report.

 

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Philadelphia Federal Reserve President Patrick Harker speaks virtually on the economic outlook at the Delaware State Chamber of Commerce 2023 Economic Outlook event.

  • US Import Prices/Export Prices (September), Michigan Consumer Sentiment & Consumer Expectations Reports (October), Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (October 13)

  • Brazil Business Confidence (October)

  • Colombia Retail Sales (August)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • China Inflation (September), PPI (September), Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (September)

  • India WPI Food Index (September), WPI Fuel (September), WPI Inflation (September), WPI Manufacturing (September), FX Reserves (October 6), Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (September)

  • South Korea Unemployment (September)

  • Singapore GDP (Q3)

  • New Zealand Business NZ PMI (September), Electronic Retail Card Spending (September)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • ECB President Christine Lagarde participates in an "IMF Seminar: Debate on the Global Economy" in Marrakech, Morocco. 

  • Eurozone Industrial Production (August)

  • France Inflation (September)

  • Hungary Industrial Production (August)

  • Spain CPI (September), Inflation (September)

  • Poland Inflation (September), Industrial Production (September), Balance of Trade (August), Current Account (August)

  • Romania Current Account (August)

  • Switzerland Producer & Imports Prices (September)

  • Slovakia Inflation (September), CPI (September)

  • Ukraine Balance of Trade (August)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report.

 

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

  • Mali is bracing for large-scale protests demanding a transition back to a civilian government.  The current military junta seized power in August 2020 after civilian protesters demanded the government step down due to the inability of the government to manage a violent insurgency allied with Al Qaeda as well as a spiraling economy.

Economic Reports/Events –

Angola Wholesale Prices (September)

 

Saturday, October 14, 2023 

Global

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • In Australia, polls close on a vote on whether to recognize the country’s indigenous population in the Constitution.  Such recognition would mean a greater focus on education, jobs, and health care for them.  Australian voters are deeply divided over the vote, and there appears to be no clear view on how to deal with the legacy of the Indigenous communities.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Botswana Inflation (September)

 

Sunday, October 15, 2023

Global

  • The World Bank/IMF Meetings conclude.

  • The International Olympic Committee meets in Mumbai to determine if a number of sports are included in the 2028 Los Angeles Olympics, including cricket. 

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Ecuador holds presidential run-off elections.  The race is between lawyer and politician Luisa González and businessman and son of former President Alvaro Noboa Daniel Noboa. 

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • New Zealand holds general elections.  All 120 members of the Parliament are up for election.  Polls show the center-right National Party holding a strong lead, but observers believe a coalition government of some sort will be required for them to lead.

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Saudi Arabia Inflation (September), Wholesale Prices (September)

  • Israel Inflation (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

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Francis Kelly
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