The Global Week Ahead

Written By Francis Kelly

January 14 - 21, 2024

Political events will dominate the week as the US presidential primary season officially begins with the Republican Iowa Caucus on Monday.  Despite an expected negative 9-degree Fahrenheit temperature and days of near-blizzard conditions, Iowans will bravely venture out to schools, fire stations, and neighbors' living rooms to debate who should be the Republican presidential candidate.  And then, in a fascinating tradition, they hand out pieces of paper, and everyone votes for whom they want.  Results then are called into a central counting center.  Former President Donald Trump is leading by a massive margin in the latest polls.  But if Iowa does anything, it surprises with whom they choose.  So, Monday night could be a night of surprises.

The other significant political event is the annual World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.   While the world's leading CEOs (estimated at close to 1,600) continue to descend in droves on the little village nestled in the Alps, it will also draw an estimated 60 heads of state and senior government leaders.  In particular, we will be watching US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and French President Emmanuel Macron using the forum to intensify their support for Ukraine.  Indeed, the situation in the Red Sea and its impact on supply chains (coupled with the ongoing drought in Panama, which has dramatically slowed commercial travel through the Panama Canal) will be a significant point of discussion.

While this is happening, and despite it being a federal holiday on Monday, the US Congress will likely (hopefully) pass another funding extension to keep the federal government running as they continue to work on getting appropriations finished.  Additionally, this coming week, we will likely see the unveiling of an estimated $70 billion bipartisan tax policy agreement.  We may also see the outlines of a bipartisan border security deal that would unlock a vote on Ukraine and Israeli defense aid. 

On the global economic radar screen this week, markets will look closely at China's GDP numbers and industrial production figures for any sign of economic improvement.  Markets will also look at the Fed's Beige Book released this week, US retail sales, industrial production figures, and the University of Michigan survey.   Looking at Europe, the Eurogroup will meet in Brussels, and ECB President Christine Lagarde will speak on multiple occasions in Davos.  Finally, everyone will be observing oil prices as the Red Sea situation is highly likely to escalate in some way.  

Here is what else we are watching around the world this coming week:

Sunday, January 14, 2024

Global

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • Denmark’s Queen Margrethe II will formally abdicate, allowing Crown Prince Frederik to become the King.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Israel Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (December)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • China’s foreign minister Wang Yi is on a four-nation African tour in his first overseas trip of the year. He will visit Egypt, Tunisia, Togo, and Cote d’Ivoire.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Monday, January 15, 2024 

Global

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Canada Manufacturing Sales (November), New Motor Vehicle Sales (November), Wholesale Sales (November), Bank of Canada Business Outlook Survey

  • Brazil Business Confidence (January), BCB Focus Market Readout

  • Peru GDP (November), Unemployment (December)

  • Paraguay Current Account (Q2)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • China People’s Bank of China 1-Year MLF Announcement

  • Japan Machine Tool Orders (December’

  • India WPI Food Index (December), WPI Fuel Index (December), WPI Manufacturing (December), Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (December)

  • Australia ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (December)

  • Indonesia Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (December)

  • Philippines Cash Remittances (November)

  • Pakistan Consumer Confidence (December)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Eurozone Balance of Trade (November), Industrial Production (November)

  • Germany Wholesale Prices (December), Full Year GDP (2023)

  • Italy Balance of Trade (November)

  • Ireland Construction PMI (December), Balance of Trade (November)

  • Hungary Construction Output (November)

  • Poland Inflation (December)

  • Ukraine Balance of Trade (November)

  • Russia FX Reserves (December)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Saudi Arabia Inflation (December), Wholesale Prices (December)

  • Turkey Budget Balance (December)

  • Israel Unemployment (December), Inflation (December)

  • Qatar GDP (Q3)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, January 16, 2024

Global

  • The UN Security Council will hold consultations on the Middle East (Yemen).

  • The UN will host regional launches of the World Economic Situation and Prospects 2024, which will be organized by the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA). The United Nations Information Center in Moscow will hold a WESP briefing on the regional outlook for the Commonwealth of Independent States and South-Eastern Europe. The United Nations Information Center in Mexico will hold a WESP briefing on the global outlook and the regional outlook for Latin America and the Caribbean.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Hundreds of US federal government employees are expected to stage a walk-out in protest over President Biden’s handling of the Gaza War.

  • A civil defamation jury trial begins in Manhattan federal court against Trump over his 2019 denial of journalist Jean Carroll’s claim that he raped her.

Economic Reports/Events –

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.  

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Japan PPI (December)

  • South Korea Import/Export Prices (December)

  • Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (January), TD-MI Inflation Gauge (December), Building Permits (November), Private House Approvals (November)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

 

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey will testify before the House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee.

  • Eurozone Consumer Inflation Expectations (November), ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (January)

  • Germany Inflation (December), CPI (December), Inflation (December), ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (January), ZEW Current Conditions (January)

  • UK Employment (November),

  • Italy Inflation (December), CPI (December)

  • Ireland CPI (December), Inflation (December)

  • Belarus Industrial Production (December)

  • Poland Inflation (December)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Israel GDP (Q3)

  • Qatar Inflation (December)

  • Turkey Auto Production (December)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • The IMF’s executive board meets to approve a deal with Kenya unveiled last November that will grant it $938mn in new funds.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nigeria Food Inflation (December)

 

Wednesday, January 17, 2024

Global

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report. 

Economic Reports/Events –

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report. 

Economic Reports/Events –

  • China GDP (Q4), Industrial Production (December), Retail Sales (December), Unemployment (December), Industrial Capacity Utilization (Q4), House Price Index (December)

  • Japan Reuters Tankan Index (January)

  • Singapore Non-Oil Exports (December)

  • Indonesia Loan Growth (December), Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

  • Sri Lanka Manufacturing PMI (December), Services PMI (December)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • The European Parliament will outline its expectations for the 1 February special European Council.  They will also discuss Hungary and frozen EU funds with Presidents Charles Michel and Ursula von der Leyen. A resolution on Hungary will be put to a vote on January 18.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • France Budget Balance (November)

  • Russia Current Account (Q4)

  • Belarus GDP (December)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report. 

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Jordan Inflation (December)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Former Sierra Leone President Ernest Bai Koroma goes to court on charges of treason in connection with a failed coup in November 2023.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • South Africa Retail Sales (November)

 

Thursday, January 18, 2024

Global

  • Nothing significant to report. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report. 

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic to give brief remarks on the economic outlook before the Metro Atlanta Chamber board of directors meeting.  At Noon, Bostic will speak on the 2024 economic outlook before the Atlanta Business Chronicle 2024 Economic Outlook lunch.

  • US Jobless Claims (January 13), Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (January), Philly Fed Business Conditions (January), Philly Fed CAPEX Index (January), Building Permits (December), Housing Starts (December), EIA Natural Gas Stocks (January 12), EIA Crude Oil Stocks (January 12)

  • Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity (November)

  • Argentina Balance of Trade (December), Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi will visit Brazil and Jamaica through Jan. 22.

Economic Reports/Events –

China FDI (December)

  • Japan Machinery Orders (November)

  • Australia Employment Change (December), Capacity Utilization (November), Industrial Production (November)

  • Kazakhstan Industrial Production (December)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Turkey FX Reserves (January 12)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report. 

Economic Reports/Events –

  • South Africa Gold Production (November), Mining Production (November), Building Permits (November)

  

Friday, January 19, 2024 

Global

  • Nothing significant to report. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr to participate in discussion on "Bank Regulation" before the Responsible AI Symposium: Advancing a Blueprint for Tech Equity" hosted by the National Fair Housing Alliance.

  • San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly to participate in a fireside chat before the hybrid event, "A Future Outlook: Innovation & Economic Growth in San Diego"

  • US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (January), Michigan Consumer Expectations (January), Banker Hughes Oil Rig Count (January 19), Existing Home Sales (December)

  • Canada Retail Sales (November)

  • Mexico Retail Sales (November)

  • Paraguay Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Japan Inflation (December), Tertiary Industry Index (November)

  • India FX Reserves (January 12)

  • Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (January)

  • Hong Kong Business Confidence (Q1)

  • Kazakhstan Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • Peter Pellegrini, the leader of Slovakia's Hlas party and an ally of Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico, will announce his candidacy for Slovakia's presidential election in March 2025.

Economic Reports/Events –

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report. 

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Israel Manufacturing PMI (December), Inflation Expectations (January), Leading Indicator (December)

 

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Ethiopia Inflation (December)

 

Saturday, January 20, 2024

Global

  • Nothing significant to report. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report. 

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Japan’s Smart Lander for Investigating the Moon (SLIM) spacecraft will attempt a lunar landing.  This would make Japan the fifth nation to successfully land a space vehicle on the Moon.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report. 

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

  

Sunday, January 21, 2024

Global

  • Nothing significant to report. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report. 

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report. 

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report. 

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report. 

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

  

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Francis Kelly
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