The Global Week Ahead
February 12-19, 2023
It is going to be a busy week around the world this week. Rescue efforts continue in Turkey following the horrific earthquake last week. Expect global relief efforts to ramp up assistance to help the tens of thousands left homeless in the middle of winter.
Meanwhile, NATO defense chiefs meet this week to discuss how to further assist Ukraine in defending itself against Russia just as Moscow gets closer to ordering what is expected to be a massive counter-attack seeking to regain territory liberated by Ukrainian forces in recent months. This comes in advance of the Munich Security Conference, which will almost certainly focus heavily on Russia, China, and the rising security risks worldwide.
Brussels will be busy as the Eurogroup gathers to discuss the financial and political implications of the Ukraine War as well as the next steps in energy policy. Elsewhere, South Africa will host naval exercises with Russia and China in defiance of harsh criticism from many nations for moving more in alignment with the two countries. The exercises come on the first anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
The global economic calendar is full this week, too. Markets are watching numerous emerging market inflation reports, US CPI and US retail sales, and US industrial production numbers. ECB President Christine Lagarde will participate in the Eurogroup meetings and will likely give further insight into the state of the EU economy.
Here is what we are watching around the world this week:
Sunday, February 12, 2023:
Global
· Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· In Venezuela, thousands of students are expected to march in Caracas demanding electoral authorities open voting registration.
· The Superbowl will be played between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Philadelphia Eagles in Glendale, Arizona.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Asia
Political/Social Events –
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Berlin, Germany, holds a re-vote of the municipal elections held on September 26, 2022, following a court order forcing a re-vote. The September elections were ruled as chaotic by the court, which said it was a “unique event in postwar German election history.” The chaos came as the city held its annual marathon, which partially paralyzed the city. Voters had to wait for hours to ca
· Spain is bracing for a large protest march in Madrid by primary healthcare workers seeking better pay.
· Cyprus holds presidential runoff elections.
· Italy will hold regional elections in Lazio and Lombardia through February 13th.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Monday, February 13, 2023:
Global
· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a meeting on children and armed conflict prevention.
· UN Secretary-General Antóno Guterres holds an informal meeting of the UN plenary to hear a briefing by the Secretary-General on the report “Our Common Agenda.”
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· US Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman will hold meetings with South Korean and Japanese counterparts to discuss Korean Peninsula security issues.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman speaks at the American Bankers Association (ABA) Conference for Community Bankers in Orlando, Florida, on “Independence, Predictability, and Tailoring in Banking Supervision and Regulation.”
· US Consumer Inflation Expectations (January)
· Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout
· Colombia Balance of Trade (December)
· Uruguay Industrial Production (December)
· Paraguay Balance of Trade (January)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar will visit Nepal and meet his counterpart to review bilateral relations. Simultaneously, Nepal’s Defense Minister Hari Prasad Upreti, will begin a four-day visit to India to discuss mutual defense issues.
· The Aero India 2023 air show begins in Bengaluru, India
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· The Eurogroup meets in Brussels. They will discuss recent developments in energy markets and their impact on the fiscal policy response in the euro area, Euro area labor markets, macroeconomic and financial developments, and policy coordination in the euro area.
· Russian President Vladimir Putin will meet with the leader of the country's Communist Party, starting a week of daily meetings with parliamentary faction leaders until Feb. 16th.
· German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier visits Cambodia.
· Former Wirecard CEO Markus Braun is expected to testify at his trial in Munich, Germany, where he is facing fraud charges.
· In the UK, civil servants at the Driver and Vehicle Licensing Agency will strike over pay.
· In the UK, museum workers begin a week of strikes.
Economic Reports/Events –
· ECB President Christine Lagarde and ECB Board Member Fabio Panetta participate in the Eurogroup meeting in Brussels.
· Switzerland Inflation (January), CPI (January)
· Poland Balance of Trade (December), Current Account (December)
· Hungary Construction Output (December), Construction Output (December)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Israel's Knesset will begin its series of votes on planned reforms to the country's judiciary, specifically, how the Israeli Supreme Court is appointed. The reform effort has sparked protests, and recent polls suggest a large bloc of voters either oppose the reforms or want to see the process of reform slowed down.
· Iraq’s Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein wraps up a visit to Washington DC by speaking at the Wilson Center in Washington, DC.
· The United Arab Emirates will host the World Government Summit in Dubai through Feb. 15th.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Turkey Current Account (December), Retail Sales (December)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· US-led military exercises named “Justified Accord,” which involve more than 20 countries, are held in Kenya.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nigeria Bloomberg Economic Survey
· Kenya Bloomberg Economic Survey
· Ghana Bloomberg Economic Survey
· Angola Bloomberg Economic Survey
· Uganda Bloomberg Economic Survey
· Zambia Bloomberg Economic Survey
· Mozambique Bloomberg Economic Survey
· Rwanda Bloomberg Economic Survey
· Botswana Bloomberg Economic Survey
Tuesday, February 14, 2023:
Global
· OPEC Monthly Meeting in Geneva, Switzerland.
· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on “Threats to international peace and security: Sea-level rise: implications for international peace and security.”
· World Bank President David Malpass and Anabel González, Deputy Director-General of the World Trade Organization, will speak at a Peterson Institute for International Economics event entitled “Driving Global Trade for Development” in Washington, DC.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Colombia is bracing for widespread protests opposing President Gustavo Petro’s reform agenda.
· Paraguayan President Mario Abdo Benitez will begin a four-day trip to Taiwan. Paraguay is one of the few remaining countries worldwide that continues to recognize Taiwan over China’s strong objections.
· Guyana hosts the International Energy Conference and Expo in Georgetown.
Economic Reports/Events –
· New York Federal Reserve President & CEO John Williams will speak at the New York Bankers Association Regional Meeting in New York City.
· US Inflation Figures (January), CPI (January), Redbook (Feb. 11), NFIB Business Optimism Index (January)
· Canada New Motor Vehicles Sales (December)
· Colombia Imports/Balance of Trade (December), Industrial Production (December), Retail Sales (December)
· Argentina Inflation (January)
· El Salvador Inflation (January)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Singapore’s government will formally deliver its budget statement for the 2023 fiscal year. With the rising cost of living and inflation, the budget is expected to include various provisions helping to blunt the impact on households.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Japan’s government will formally nominate Kazuo Ueda for the role of Governor of the Bank of Japan.
· Japan GDP (Q4), Capacity Utilization (December), Industrial Production (December)
· India Passenger Vehicle Sales (January), WPI Inflation (January), WPI Food (January), WPI Fuel (January), WPI Manufacturing (January)
· Indonesia Motorbike Sales (January)
· Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (February), NAB Business Confidence (January)
· New Zealand Food Inflation (January), Business Inflation Expectations (Q1)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· The EU Economic and Financial Affairs Council (ECOFIN) meets in Brussels. The agenda includes an exchange of views on the economic and financial impact of the war in Ukraine.
· NATO defense ministers will meet in the "Ramstein format" of Ukraine's defense donors in Brussels, Belgium.
· The European Parliament debates major legislation on the EU standards for emissions for cars and vans.
· German Chancellor Olaf Scholz travels to Belgium for a Belgian-German Energy Summit with Belgium Prime Minister Alexander de Croo Zeebrugge, Belgium. They will hold a joint press conference afterward.
· In the UK, university workers begin a three-day strike over pay.
Economic Reports/Events –
· ECB Board Member Luis de Guindos participates in the ECOFIN meeting in Brussels.
· Eurozone GDP (Q4), Employment Change (Q4)
· UK Unemployment (December), Claimant Count Change (January), Average Earnings including Bonus (December)
· Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (January)
· Poland GDP (Q4)
· Hungary GDP, (Q4)Budget Balance (January)
· Norway GDP (December)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Turkey was scheduled to host a natural gas summit but has postponed it due to the earthquake until March 22nd. The summit will bring together gas buyers and sellers from all over the Middle East, Mediterranean, Caspian, and Middle Asia, along with consumer countries from Europe. Russian President Putin had proposed setting up a gas hub in Turkey following the damage done by the explosions that damaged Russia’s Nord Stream gas pipeline under the Baltic Sea. But that has been delayed as Western officials pressed the Turkish government not to proceed as it was seen as a way of masking additional Russian gas sales to evade sanctions.
· Lebanon observes Rafik Hariri Memorial Day – a national holiday - remembering when in 2005, Prime Minister Hariri was assassinated by a car bomb planted by Hezbollah.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Israel Consumer Confidence (January)
· Turkey Auto Sales (January)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Wednesday, February 15, 2023:
Global
· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the Middle East (Yemen).
· In Geneva, the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) and the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) will launch jointly the Ukraine Regional Refugee Response Plan and Ukraine Humanitarian Response Plan 2023.
· The OECD holds the Global Forum on Responsible Business Conduct in Paris.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley is expected to formally announce her candidacy for the US Presidency.
· The Congressional Budget Office will hold a briefing on the release of reports titled “The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2023 to 2033” and “Federal Debt and the Statutory Limit, February 2023.”
· Colombia is expected to be hit with more major protests as opposition parties state a general strike against President Gustavo Petro’s reform agenda.
· Former Goldman Sachs partner Tim Leissner is due to be sentenced in a Brooklyn federal court, where he pleaded guilty to corruption charges for his role in helping loot billions of dollars from Malaysia’s 1MDB development fund.
Economic Reports/Events –
· US Retail Sales Figures (January), Industrial Production (January), Manufacturing Production (January), Capacity Utilization (January), Business Inventories (December), NAHB Housing Market Index (February), NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (February), MBA Mortgage Figures (February 10th), Overall Net Capital Flows (December), Net Long-term TIC Flows (December)
· Canada Housing Starts (January), Manufacturing Sales (December), Wholesale Sales (December)
· Colombia GDP (Q4), ISE Economic Activity (December)
· Uruguay Central Bank Interest Rate Decision
· Peru GDP (December), Employment Figures (January)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Japan will launch its next-generation rocket, the H3, from Tanegasahima Space Center. It is the biggest upgrade in Japan’s rocket program in 20 years and will replace the Russian Soyuz rocket that was blocked from being purchased due to sanctions resulting from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Japan Tertiary Industry Index (December)
· South Korea Export Prices (January), Import Prices (January), Unemployment (January)
· Australia Royal Bank of Australia Payments System Board Meeting
· Indonesia Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (January)
· New Zealand Composite NZ PCI/Services NZ PSI (January), Visitor Arrivals (December)
· Sri Lanka Manufacturing PMI (January), Services PMI (January)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· German Finance Minister Lindner meets with Finland’s Finance Minister Saarikko in Helsinki.
· The International Summit for Responsible AI in the Military Domain discussing the opportunities and ethical challenges of using AI in war commences in the Hague, Netherlands.
· German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier meets with Malaysian King Abdullah Shah and Prime Minister Ibrahim in Kuala Lumpur.
· Serbia observes Sovereignty Day (also known as Statehood Day), commemorating the first Serbian Uprising in 1804 and the first Serbian Constitution of 1835.
Economic Reports/Events –
· ECB Board President Christine Lagarde participates in a plenary debate on the ECB Annual Report 2021 before the European Parliament in Strasbourg, France.
· Eurozone Industrial Production (December), Balance of Trade (December)
· Germany Wholesale Prices (January)
· UK Inflation Figures (January), PPI (January), Retail Sales (January)
· Spain Inflation Figures (January), CPI (January)
· Poland Inflation Figures (January), Industrial Production (December)
· Norway Consumer Confidence (Q1), Balance of Trade (January)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Saudi Arabia Inflation (January)
· Turkey Budget Balance (January)
· Israel Inflation Rate (January), Manufacturing PMI (January)
· Oman Total Credit (December), M2 Money Supply (December)
· Qatar Inflation (January)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· The African Union Annual Summit begins in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, with all the member ambassadors meeting today, other ministers tomorrow, and national leaders Friday.
· The Nigerian Supreme Court will resume hearing a case against the government's ongoing currency swap. Nigeria Central Bank has been attempting to replace the naira (the currency), but it has caused chaos as consumers and businesses have struggled to replace the currency with new high-denominated, redesigned bills.
Economic Reports/Events –
· South Africa Inflation Figures (January), Retail Sales (December)
· Nigeria Inflation Figures (January)
· Mozambique GDP (Q4)
· Nigeria Inflation (January)
· Ghana Inflation (January)
· Namibia Inflation (January)
· Botswana Inflation (January)
· Zambia Central Bank Interest Rate
· Namibia Central Bank Interest Rate
Thursday, February 16, 2023:
Global
· Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester gives a speech to the Financial Executives International (Northeast Ohio Chapter) at the Cleveland Federal Reserve Cleveland, Ohio.
· St. Louis Fed President James Bullard will give a speech on the US economic outlook at the Jackson, Tennessee Chamber of Commerce.
· US Initial Jobless Claims (February 11th), Building Permits (January), PPI (January), Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (February), PPI (January), Housing Starts (January), Housing Starts (January), Philly Fed CAPEX Index (February), Philly Fed Employment (February) Philly Fed New Orders (February)
· Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity (December)
· Paraguay Balance of Trade (December)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· India’s Tripura state is expected to hold elections. However, concerns are rising that political violence could break out as the ruling BJP Party seeks to build on its sizeable lead in what was once a leftist stronghold. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been campaigning for the local BJP candidates, holding rallies around the state.
· Hong Kong will release new population estimates for 2022. More than 113,200 people left Hong Kong in the first half of 2022, and even more, are predicted to have left in the second half as COVID restrictions were lifted.
· Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency Rafael Mariano Grossi will visit Pakistan to explore avenues for the peaceful use of nuclear energy.
· Japan and the US will conduct joint military exercises through March 12th on and around the Kikai Island and the US Marine Corps Camp Hansen on Okinawa – both of which are part of the Nansei Island chain, which stretches to Taiwan and separates the East China Sea where Chinese maritime activities have increased in recent years.
Economic Reports/Events –
· China House Price Index (January), FDI (January)
· Japan Exports/Imports/Balance of Trade (January), Machinery Orders (December)
· Hong Kong Employment Rate (January)
· Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (February), Employment Figures (January)
· Indonesia Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Lending Facility Rate (February), Car Sales (January), Loan Growth (January),
· Philippines Central Bank Interest Rate Decision
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Poland’s President Duda meets with NATO Secretary-General Stoltenberg in Brussels.
· EU President Ursala von der Leyen meets with French Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne and then travels to Munich, Germany, to participate in the Munich Security Forum the February 18th.
· Lithuania celebrates Restoration of the State Day. This is one of two Independence Days celebrated in Lithuania – this one celebrates the restoration of freedom and sovereignty from the Soviet Union in 1990 after being taken over at the end of World War II.
· In Northern Ireland, health and ambulance staff begin two days of strikes over pay.
Economic Reports/Events –
· ECB Board Member Fabio Panetta Event: participates in a discussion on "Monetary policy after the energy shock" organized by the Centre for European Reform, the Delegation of the European Union to the United Kingdom, and the European Central Bank Representation in London.
· ECB Board Member Philip R. Lane gives the Dow Lecture organized by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIES) in London.
· ECB Board Member Luis de Guindos participates in an exchange of views with students Colegio Mayor CEU San Pablo, Madrid, Spain.
· Italy Balance of Trade (December)
· Spain Balance of Trade (December)
· Norway Norges Bank Governor’s Annual Address
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
Israel GDP (Q4)
Turkey FX Reserves (February)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· South Africa Building Permits (December)
· Rwanda Central Bank Interest Rate Decision
Friday, February 17, 2023:
Global
· The Munich Security Conference begins in Munich, Germany.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Carnival begins in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.
Economic Reports/Events –
· US Federal Reserve monetary policy report
· US Import Prices/Export Prices (January), CB Leading Index (January)
· Canada PPI (January), Raw Materials (January)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Andrew Hsia, the vice chair of Taiwan's opposition Kuomintang and a delegation of party members conclude a nine-day trip to China. Hsia said the trip was “apolitical” and aimed at looking into the welfare of native Taiwanese living and working in China. He met with head of Beijing’s Taiwan Affairs Office, Sung Tao, on the trip. He also sought to resolve a number of import suspensions put in place by China in 2021, which significantly impacted Taiwanese fishermen and small businessmen.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Australia Central Bank Governor Lowe testifies before the Australian Parliament.
· India FX Reserves (February 10th)
· Singapore Export Figures (January), Balance of Trade (January)
· Sri Lanka PPI (December)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· In the UK, Border Force staff begin a three-day strike over pay. Also, West Midlands ambulance service staff go on strike over pay.
· Kosovo celebrates 15 years of independence from Serbia
Economic Reports/Events –
· Eurozone Current Account (December), New Car Registrations (January)
· UK Retail Sales (January)
· France Inflation Figures (January)
· Italy Current Account (December)
· Poland Employment Figures (January), PPI (January), Corporate Sector Wages (January)
· Switzerland Industrial Production (Q4)
· Russia Full Year GDP (2022)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Israel M1 Money Supply (January)
Africa:
Political/Social Events –
· South Africa hosts Russia and China’s Navies for military exercises. The maritime event will take place off the coast of Durban. South Africa and go through February 27th (and therefore overlap with the one-year anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022). South Africa, which of late has been suffering massive power shortages, is looking to build their relations with both Russia and China.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Saturday, February 18, 2023:
Global
· Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· The African Union Leaders Summit begins in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
· Gambia celebrates Independence Day, a national holiday.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Sunday, February 19, 2023:
Global
· Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Japan’s Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan to hold convention in Tokyo.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· China’s Xinjiang Regional Governor Erkin Tuniyaz is scheduled to travel to Brussels and possibly London. Tuniyaz, who has been sanctioned by the US Government for helping oversee massive repression and genocidal actions against the Xinjiang’s Uyghur minority, has not been invited by either the EU or the UK government. However, the respective Chinese Embassies have invited officials from both Brussels and London to meet with Tuniyaz. Human rights activists and many government officials are outraged at the move by the Chinese government, and protests are likely in both cities.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
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