Recommended Weekend Reads
February 10 - 12, 2023
We thought you might find the following useful reading. Let us know your thoughts and if you or a colleague want to be added to our distribution list. Have a great weekend.
· “How well is the G7 oil price cap working?” Institute of International FinanceThe G7 oil price cap began on December 5th. As this paper from the IIF points out, there were real shocks on and around December 5th as Russia was forced to sell their oil further afield in more concealed ways. But since then, there remain many variables – Russian shipping costs, enforced compliance on various nations facilitating Russian oil sales, etc. – which make it hard to figure out just how impactful the cap is working. And now, with Russia announcing its intention to cut oil production by 5 percent this past week, the cap may face a more challenging time being effective.
· “A World Divided: Russia, China and the West” Bennett Institute for Public Policy, Cambridge University
Canvassing 137 countries, Cambridge researchers found Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has significantly bolstered a sense of greater allegiance to both the US and NATO. Of note, positive attitudes toward Russia in many countries that previously had positive views have plummeted:
- Greece has gone from 69 percent positive attitudes toward Russia to 30 percent.
- Hungary has gone from 45 percent to 25 percent favorable.
- Italy has gone from 38 percent to 14 percent favorable.
· “International Security and Estonia 2023” Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service
Estonia, which borders Russia and is one of the most threatened nations by Russia’s aggressive behavior, published its annual foreign intelligence assessment and risk of a Russian attack. Two interesting conclusions: 1) They do not see must the Putin regime falling anytime soon and, if anything, it becoming a more potent and more dangerous dictatorship, and; 2) Russian intelligence has ramped up its efforts to use the Orthodox Church as a cover for intelligence operations inside Russia and externally.
Charts of the Week
Two very different charts stood out for us this week:
1. The Explosive Growth of Avian Flu Globally
Following up on our Chart of the Week last week detailing the massive spike of illegal egg smuggling across the US-Mexico border, this chart illustrates how brutal Avian Flu has been on the poultry industry globally. According to the World Organization for Animal Health, last season, more than 31 million birds either died from the Flu or were culled because of exposure. This season (which began last October), the number of birds killed or culled is more than 100 million and growing as the Flu spreads globally. The risk of Avian Flu is not just to birds, with recent confirmed cases of it appearing in farm mammals – which has led the World Health Organization (WHO) to worry it will jump to humans at some point.
2. Babysitting Fees in the US have Spiked in the Last Two Years
Getting a babysitter has become much more expensive in the last two years. National average rates rose 21 percent over the previous two years (11 percent in 2021 and another 9.7 percent in 2022.). San Francisco wins the prize for the most expensive city nationally. And interestingly, babysitting rates in New York went down over the last year (courtesy Axios and the UrbanSitter)
