Global Week Ahead

Written By Francis Kelly

November 26 - December 3, 2023

The situation in Gaza continues to dominate the attention of global political leaders and the markets as a temporary pause in the war is scheduled to end today after three groups of hostages were released in the last few days.  What happens now is unclear, as the cease-fire could continue if more hostages are released.  U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken will return to the region this week to encourage continued negotiations.  Conversely, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi will visit Turkey and Syria to discuss the situation in Gaza.  Raisi has been outspoken in his desire to rally the Muslim world in opposition to Israel and support Hamas. 

Also happening in the Middle East this week is the beginning of the COP28 climate summit in Dubai.  The event will see leaders worldwide gather to discuss the next steps in climate change policy.  But expectations are already muted due to the Gaza War and many global leaders who are not attending, including President Biden.   

Closer to home, the U.S. Congress returns to work this week following the Thanksgiving recess last week.  They will continue to struggle to pass appropriations bills by the end of the year and come to a decision on how to pass a sizeable military assistance package for Israel along with a new military aid package for Ukraine.  Tied up with this is Republican demands for more funding for border security for the U.S. southern border.  A deal can be made if all three funding requests are tied up together, but getting to that point will take the better part of the week to iron out the details.

On the global economic data radar screen, it is a relatively quiet calendar of releases this week. Markets are watching for the PMI reports from China, Japan, and the EU this week.  Also closely watched will be U.S. personal income and spending data along with the PCE (which the Federal Reserve watches most closely to gauge inflation). 

Also, OPEC+ meets this week after delaying their scheduled meeting last week.  African oil producing countries reportedly were resisting further cuts to production, which both Saudi Arabia and Russia have been advocating.

There will be several central bank speeches this week, led by ECB President Christine Lagarde on Monday before the European Parliament’s Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) and later in the week when she speaks at the ECB’s 5th Forum on Banking Supervision.  Fed Chair Jay Powell will talk Wednesday and Friday at Spelman College in Georgia and Bank of England Andrew Bailey. 

Here is what else we are watching around the world this coming week:

Sunday, November 26, 2023

Global

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • US Treasury Undersecretary of Treasury for Terrorism & Financial Intelligence Brian Nelson will travel to Turkey and Oman through December 1 to discuss ways to further cut off Hamas’ ability to access funding.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report.

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report.

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • In the UK, the Booker Prize for Fiction winner will be announced in London.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report.

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report.

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report.

 

Monday, November 27, 2023

Global

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • US New Home Sales (October), Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (November), Building Permits (October)

  • Uruguay Central Bank Interest Rate Decision,  Unemployment (October)

  • Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

  • Mexico Balance of Trade (October)

  • Peru GDP (Q3)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Vietnamese President Vo Van Thuong visits Japan to discuss trade issues and to upgrade diplomatic relations to the status of strategic partnership – the highest diplomatic status possible.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • China Industrial Profits (October)

  • Taiwan Consumer Confidence (November)

  • Indonesia M2 Money Supply (October)

  • Thailand Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (October)

  • Hong Kong Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (October)                                                           

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • German Economy Minister Habeck will hold emergency meetings with German state-level economic ministers to discuss the consequences of the recent Constitutional Court decision on the German budget.

  • Prime Minister Rishi Sunak hosts the second Global Investment Summit, showcasing British expertise to attract foreign backers. More than 200 heads of multinational companies and investment firms have been invited to attend.

  • The EU Foreign Affairs Council (Trade) meets in Brussels to discuss preparations for the 13th WTO Ministerial Conference, an interim trade agreement with Chile, and the state of EU-US trade relations.

  • The EU Employment, Social Policy, Health and Consumer Affairs Council (Employment and Social Policy) will meet in Brussels through November 28.  They are expected to discuss reaching a general approach on the directive on the European disability card and the European parking card for persons with disabilities. Under the umbrella of the 2024 European Semester, they will hold a policy debate on green collective bargaining. They will also discuss anti-racism and social investment in the EU. Ministers will also seek to approve conclusions, among others, on digitalization in social security coordination.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives an introductory statement at the ECON Hearing before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) of the European Parliament in Brussels, Belgium.

  • France Unemployment (October)

  • UK CBI Distributive Trades (November)

  • Bulgaria Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • The Abu Dhabi Finance Week begins and runs through November 30.  There are six Forums being held as part of the week, including the Abu Dhabi Economic Forum, the Asset Abu Dhabi, the Fintech Abu Dhabi, the Global Financial Regulators Summit, the R.A.C.E. Sustainability Summit, and Falcon Square (where 15 startups will showcase their innovations).

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Israel Composite Economic Index (October), Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • The 3rd International Conference on Public Health in Africa (CPHIA 2023), organized by the African Union and Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), will be held in Lusaka, Zambia, through November 30.

Economic Reports/Events –

Nothing significant to report.

 

Tuesday, November 28, 2023

Global

  • The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East (Syria), followed by consultations. 

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

Indonesia formally begins the election campaign season as three candidates - Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto, former Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo, and former Jakarta Governor Anies Baswedan – run to become the next president.  The campaign ends on February 10.

The China International Supply Chain Expo begins in Beijing.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • South Korea Consumer Confidence (November)

  • Taiwan GDP (Q3)

  • Vietnam FDI (November)

  • Malaysia PPI (October)

  • Australia Retail Sales (October)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • NATO Foreign Ministers meet in Brussels to discuss the War in Ukraine.

  • German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will address the German Bundestag on the budget crisis.

  • Maltese Prime Minister Robert Abela will visit Berlin for meetings with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

  • British and Irish ministers gather for the British-Irish Intergovernmental Conference in Dublin.  However, there is currently no government in place in Northern Ireland, as all parties are deadlocked on creating a new government.

  • EU President Ursula von der Leyen meets with Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA).

  • Today is Albania Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • ECB President Christine Lagarde gives a pre-recorded video address to the 2023 European Financial Reporting Advisory Group (EFRAG) Conference "European corporate reporting - Two pillars of success" in Brussels, Belgium.

  • ECB Board Member Philip R. Lane gives a lecture at the Michael Chae Seminar on Macroeconomic Policy organized by Harvard University in Cambridge, Massachusetts.

  • ECB Board Member Elizabeth McCaul participates in a panel entitled "Regulatory Leaders’ Dialogue: Are we entering a new age of bank supervision?" at the Financial Times Global Banking Summit in London, United Kingdom.

  • Bank of England Member of the Monetary Policy Committee Jonathan Haskel will give a speech at Warwick University entitled “UK inflation: How did we get here and where are we going?”

  • Eurozone Loans to Companies (October), Loans to Households (October), M3 Money Supply (October)
    Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (December)

  • France Consumer Confidence (November)

  • Slovenia Retail Sales (October)

  • Hungary GDP (Q3)

  • Greece Total Credit (October)

  • Ireland Retail Sales (October)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Saudi Arabia Unemployment (Q3), M3 Money Supply (October), Private Bank Lending (October)

  • Kuwait M2 Money Supply (October), Private Banking Lending (October)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Today is Mauritania Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Zimbabwe Inflation (November) 

 

Wednesday, November 29, 2023

Global

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • The New York Times DealBook Summit will be held in New York.  Vice President Kamala Harris, Federal Trade Commission Chair Lina Kahn, Elon Musk, and other senior political and corporate executives are scheduled to speak.

  • Economic Reports/Events –

  • Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester to give keynote speech before the Policy Conference 2023 hosted by the Loyola University Chicago Quinlan School of Business.

  • US GDP (Q3), Fed Beige Book, Corporate Profits (Q3), Goods Trade Balance (October), Wholesale Inventories (October), Real Consumer Spending (Q3)

  • Canada Current Account (Q3)

  • Brazil PPI (October), IGP-M Inflation (November)

  • Chile Unemployment (October)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board Adachi Seiji gives a speech to local leaders in Ehime, Japan.

  • South Korea Business Confidence (November)

  • Australia Construction Work Done (Q3), Monthly CPI Indicator (October)

  • Singapore Export & Import Prices (October), PPI (October)

  • Vietnam Balance of Trade (November), Industrial Production (November), Inflation (November), Retail Sales (November)

  • Philippines Budget Balance (October)

  • Thailand Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • ECB Non-Monetary Policy Meeting

  • Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey gives remarks at the 50th anniversary of the London Foreign Exchange Joint Standing Committee in London.

  • EU Economic Sentiment (November), Consumer Confidence (November), Industrial Sentiment (November), Selling Price Expectations (November), Services Sentiment (November)

  • Germany Inflation (November)

  • UK Bank of England Consumer Credit (October), Mortgage Approvals (October)

  • Italy PPI (October), Construction Output (Q3), Inflation (November), Industrial Sales (September)

  • Slovakia Business Confidence (November)

  • Spain Inflation (November), Retail Sales (October), Business Confidence (November)

  • Bulgaria Business Confidence (November)

  • Italy Business Confidence & Consumer Confidence (November)

  • Ireland Inflation (November), Industrial Sales (September)

  • Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index (November)

  • Russia GDP (October), Unemployment (October), Business Sentiment (November), Corporate Profits (September), Industrial Production (October), Real Wage Growth (September), Retail Sales (October)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Turkey Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (October), Economic Confidence Index (November)

  • Bahrain Inflation (October)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • South Africa M3 Money Supply (October), Private Sector Credit (October)

 

Thursday, November 30, 2023

Global

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • US Core PCE Price Index (October), Personal Income (October), Personal Spending (October), Pending Home Sales (October)

  • Canada GDP (Q3), CFIB Business Barometer (November)

  • Brazil Unemployment (October), Net Payrolls (October)

  • Mexico Unemployment Rate (October), Fiscal Balance (October)

  • Chile Copper Production (October), Industrial Production (October), Manufacturing Production (October), Retail Sales (October)

  • Argentina Consumer Confidence (November), Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

  • Colombia Unemployment (October), Cement Production (October)

  • Uruguay Balance of Trade (October)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Bhutan holds parliamentary elections.

  • Indonesian union members will begin protests over wage-related issues.  The protests are expected to run through December 13.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board Nakamura Toyoaki gives a speech to local leaders in Hyogo, Japan.

  • China NBS Manufacturing PMIs (November)

  • India GDP (Q3), Infrastructure Output (October), Government Budget Value (October)

  • Japan Industrial Production (October), Retail Sales (October), Consumer Confidence (November), Housing Starts (October), Construction Orders (October)

  • Australia Building Permits (October), Housing Credit (October), Private Sector Credit (October)

  • South Korea Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Industrial Production (October), Retail Sales (October)

  • Thailand Industrial Production (October), Current Account (October), Private Investment (October)

  • Sri Lanka Inflation (November)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • The EU Employment, Social Policy, Health and Consumer Affairs Council (Health) meets in Brussels to discuss open strategic autonomy from a health perspective, and they will seek to approve conclusions on mental health. The Spanish presidency will also update ministers on ongoing legislative files and their state of play, such as the regulation on EMA fees, the European Health Data Space regulation, the regulation on substances of human origin, and the pharmaceutical package.

  • The EU General Affairs Council (Cohesion) meets in Brussels to exchange views on cohesion policy post-2027. They will also be invited to approve conclusions on the future of cohesion policy.

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Bahrain M2 Money Supply (October), Private Sector Credit (October)

  • Egypt M2 Money Supply (October)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • South Africa PPI (October), Balance of Trade (October)

  • Kenya Inflation Rate (November) 

 

Friday, December 1, 2023 

Global

  • Brazil takes the rotating G20 Chair for 2024 from Japan.

  • Ecuador assumes the monthly rotating chair of the UN Security Council.

  • Today is the first day of winter per the meteorological calendar.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (November)

  • India S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November), Bank Loan Growth (November 17), FX Reserves (November 24), Deposit Growth (November 17)

  • Japan Unemployment (October), Capital Spending (Q3), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November), Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI (November)

  • South Korea Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (November), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

  • Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI (November), Commodity Prices (November)

  • Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November), Inflation (November)

  • Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

  • Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

  • Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

  • Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November), Business Confidence (November)

  • Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

  • Pakistan Consumer Confidence (November)

  • Sri Lanka Balance of Trade (October)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • Today is Portugal Independence Day, a national holiday.

  • Today is Romania Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

  

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Turkey Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (November)

  • Egypt Current Account (Q3)

 

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

  • Today is Freedom and Democracy Day in Chad, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI (November) 

 

Saturday, December 2, 2023

Global

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Singapore SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (November)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Sunday, December 3, 2023

Global

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

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Francis Kelly
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