Recommended Weekend Reads
October 6 - 8, 2023
Here are our recommended reads from reports and articles we read in the last week. We hope you find these useful and that you have a relaxing weekend. And let us know if you or someone you know wants to be added to our distribution list.
Israel
“Lessons from Israel’s Wars in Gaza” Rand Corporation
For more than a decade, Israel has clashed with Hamas in Gaza, with cycles of violence defined by periods of intense fighting followed by relative lulls. This brief summarizes a report focusing on a five-year period of this conflict — from the end of Operation Cast Lead in 2009 to the end of Operation Protective Edge in 2014. The report tells many stories and holds many lessons. It analyzes the changing face of urban warfare and how an advanced military fought a weaker yet highly adaptive, irregular force. It also provides a case study of military innovation — showing how the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) evolved operationally, organizationally, and technologically to meet ongoing hybrid challenges.
China
Despite successive rounds of restructuring by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) in 2018 and 2023 that led some analysts to proclaim the CCP’s absorption of the Chinese state, China’s government apparatus under the State Council survives and continues to strengthen important institutions.
“China Isn’t Shifting Away from the Dollar or Dollar Bonds” Council on Foreign Relations
There is a widespread perception that China has responded to an era of heightened geostrategic competition and growing economic rivalry with the United States by shifting its foreign exchange reserves out of the dollar. It sort of makes sense – China does worry about the weaponization of the dollar and the reach of U.S. financial sanctions. And why would a rising power like China want to fund the Treasury of a country that China views as standing in the way of the realization of the China dream (at least in the Pacific). It also seems to be in the official U.S. data: China’s reported holdings of U.S. Treasuries have slid pretty continuously since 2012, with a further downleg in the last 18 months. Yet, that is not what I believe is actually happening.
“The BRI at Ten: Maximizing the Benefits and Minimizing the Risks of China’s Belt and Road Initiative” Boston University Global Development Policy Center
To mark the tenth anniversary of China’s historic Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), the third Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation (BRF) will be held in Beijing in mid-October, with several international leaders scheduled to attend. A new report takes a deep dive, evaluating the promise of China’s overseas economic activity in general, and the BRI in particular, finding that the BRI has delivered significant benefits to host countries, but has also accentuated real risks for China and host countries alike.
North Korea
“North Korea and China Aren’t the Allies You Think They Are” Rand Corporation
We have a habit of thinking of China and North Korea as allies. Indeed, China's Mao Zedong once described the two as being “as close as lips and teeth.” North Korea is the only country with which China has a mutual defense treaty. Despite this history, however, there has been considerable friction between China and North Korea over the years.
United States
“The Dysfunctional Superpower” Robert Gates/Foreign Affairs
Gates, the former Secretary of Defense as well as Director of the CIA, lays out in a powerful essay how the United States now confronts graver threats to its security than it has in decades, perhaps ever. Never before has it faced four allied antagonists at the same time—Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran—whose collective nuclear arsenal could, within a few years, be nearly double the size of its own. Not since the Korean War has the United States had to contend with powerful military rivals in both Europe and Asia. And no one alive can remember a time when an adversary had as much economic, scientific, technological, and military power as China does today.
The problem, however, is that at the very moment that events demand a strong and coherent response from the United States, the country cannot provide one. Its fractured political leadership—Republican and Democratic, in the White House and in Congress—has failed to convince enough Americans that developments in China and Russia matter. Political leaders have failed to explain how the threats posed by these countries are interconnected. They have failed to articulate a long-term strategy to ensure that the United States and democratic values, more broadly, will prevail.
Latin America
“Will This Be the Year Mercosur Breaks?” Americas Quarterly
The Southern Common Market – better known by its Spanish abbreviation “Mercosur” – is made up of Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay (Venezuela is a full member but was suspended in 2016). It was established in 1991 by the Treaty of Asunción. But since then, it has experienced multiple ups and downs. However, multiple new threats, including a deadline for a deal with the EU, menace the region’s longest-lived regional bloc. If it breaks up, what will it mean for the collective and individual economies of its members?
“Remilitarization in Central America: A Comparative and Regional Analysis” IBI Consultants
This report is an anthology of studies examining the remilitarization processes in the Northern Triangle of Central America (El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras) undertaken by leading academic researchers in each country with the support of the Rockefeller Brothers Fund. In these countries, the United States is and has historically been the dominant external actor. As a comparative case, we examine Nicaragua, more closely aligned with Russia. In every country, the military had either governed directly or through civilian proxies for most of the previous 150 years.
Russia’s War on Ukraine
“Poles and Hungarians Differ Over Views of Russia and the U.S.” Pew Research Center
While both Hungary and Poland voted in favor of the United Nations’ condemnation of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the two central European countries have since often diverged on dealing with Russia on the world stage. Poland pushed for the delivery of tanks to Ukraine and proposed additional sanctions on Russia, while Hungary’s government blocked military aid to Ukraine and continues to maintain an economic relationship with Russia.
Map of the Week
The Waiting List of Countries Wanting to Join The European Union
European leaders will gather in Albania this week to discuss the possible enlargement of the EU and the status of a number of countries that want to join. While Ukraine is the most talked about potential new member, there are eight other nations seeking membership. The current list includes Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Moldova, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia, Turkey (now known as Türkiye), and Ukraine. Türkiye has waited the longest but has found consistent resistance from most EU members. It will be interesting to see which nations might find their application expedited after this week’s meeting.
