The Global Week Ahead

March 26 - April 2, 2023

In the coming week, US-China relations will take center stage again as Taiwan’s President travels through the US on her way to visit Latin America.  While the visit is billed as a “transit” on her way to Guatemala and Belize (two of the few Latin American nations still to recognize Taiwan over China diplomatically), President Tsai Ing-wen is expected to meet with US Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) and a number of other members of Congress in Los Angeles.  President Tsai has no publicly scheduled official meetings with anyone in the Biden Administration.  We will watch Beijing’s public response closely, which we believe will be more limited than when then-Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) visited Taiwan last August.

As President Tsai traverses through the US to Latin America, Taiwan’s former President Ma Jing-Jeou, who is a member of the Kuomintang (KMT) opposition party to Tsai’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPS), will make a historic visit to China.  Billed as a Taiwanese student visit, it is the first time a former Taiwanese President has visited the mainland since the end of the Chinese Civil War in 1949.

In the US, President Biden will host the 2023 Summit for Democracy in Washington, DC.  Co-hosting the event will be the leaders of Costa Rica, the Netherlands, the Republic of Korea, the Republic of Zambia, and leaders from 122 nations.  Also in Washington this week, both the Senate and the House of Representatives will hold hearings examining what happened to cause the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and federal regulators to seize Signature Bank.  They will also focus on how stable the US and global banking systems are currently.

On the economic agenda this week, it is a busy week in China as the government releases its monthly purchasing manager indexes data this week, a report investors are tracking closely to get a sense of how fast the country’s economy is returning to normal.  Also, most of the nation’s largest banks are due to report earnings in China.  In the US, we are watching the US personal consumption expenditures price index, a leading indicator the Federal Reserve looks to understand inflation.

Here is what else we are watching around the world this coming week:

Sunday, March 26, 2023: 

Global

·       Nothing significant to report (NSTR)

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       CANCELLED: Brazil’s President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (Lula) was scheduled a visit to China through March 30th.  Lula was bringing along more than 240 business representatives, including 90 from the agricultural sector.  There are rumors Lula is considering an invitation from Beijing to join the Belt-and-Road Initiative.  However, Lula was diagnosed with pneumonia and announced this past Saturday he had to cancel the trip.

·       US Vice President Kamala Harris will visit Ghana.

·       Cuba holds parliamentary elections.

·       The New York State Legislature will finalize its budget this week, and included in the bill will likely be a ban on the use of gas stoves and other gas-powered appliances in homes and commercial buildings, possibly beginning in January 2025.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The China Development Forum (The Boao Forum), often referred to as “China’s Davos,” continues.  It began on March 25th and continues through March 27th.  More than 100 foreign senior executives and former government officials – including Henry Kissinger and former Bridgewater CEO Ray Dalio – are expected to attend.

·       Turkmenistan holds parliamentary elections.

·       Bangladesh celebrates Independence Day, commemorating the country’s independence from Pakistan in 1971.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Ukraine celebrates the Day of the National Guard.

·       King Charles and his wife Camilla begin their first state visit as monarch and Queen Consort, traveling to France and Germany.

·       European Daylight Savings Time begins, moving the clocks forward one hour.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Board Member Isabel Schnabel participates in a discussion at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business Conference on the Global Economy and Financial Stability in Miami, Florida.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report. 

Monday, March 27, 2023:

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on Somalia. In the afternoon, there will be a meeting on threats to international peace and security.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The Federal Trade Commission and Justice Department's Antitrust Division will co-host a Spring Enforcers Summit on Monday, featuring FTC chair Lina Khan, DOJ Assistant Attorney General Jonathan Kanter, and senior staff from both agencies discussing mergers and conduct enforcement.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Federal Reserve Board Governor Philip N. Jefferson will give a speech on the Implementation and Transmission of Monetary Policy at the H. Parker Willis Lecture, Washington and Lee University, Lexington, Va.

·       US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (March)

·       Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (March), Current Account (February), FDI (February), BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Mexico Balance of Trade (February)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Former Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou is scheduled to visit mainland China.  It is the first such trip of a former Taiwanese leader since the end of the Chinese Civil War in 1949.  Ma, a senior member of the opposition KMT Party, will be in China through April 7th.  He will be leading a group of Taiwanese students to “interact with counterparts from mainland China” in a number of cities.   He will visit a number of cities but not Beijing.

·       India will be bracing for nationwide protests over the course of the week following the conviction of opposition leader Rahul Gandhi for defaming Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Industrial Profits (February)

·       Japan Coincident Index (January), Leading Economic Index (January)

·       Taiwan Consumer Confidence (March)

·       Hong Kong Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Hungary’s parliament will consider Finland’s accession to NATO.

·       Scotland will vote on the new Scottish National Party leadership will be, announcing the results in the afternoon.  Whoever is elected will be Scotland’s new first minister following Nicola Sturgeon’s recent decision to step down.

·       Spain’s Prime Minister, Pedro Sanchez, will visit China for meetings with President Xi Jinping. The two are expected to discuss China’s peace proposal to end the Ukraine War.  He will also participate in the Boao Forum (The China Development Forum). 

·       Germany’s Verdi and EVG unions will hold a 24-hour strike seeking better pay.

·       The UK’s Public and Commercial Services Union, which represents driving examiners, will go on strike in Scotland and Northeast England over a pay dispute.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England’s Governor Andrew Bailey will give a speech at the London School of Economics.

·       ECB Board Member Frank Elderson will give a keynote speech on the management and supervision of the banks’ climate-related and environmental policy views at the 30th anniversary of the Foreign Bankers' Associations The Netherlands in Amsterdam.

·       ECB Board Member Isabel Schnabel will participate in a conversation at an event organized by Columbia Economics - Program for Economic Research, SGH Macro Advisors, and Richard Paul Richman Center at Columbia University in New York 

·       Eurozone Loans to Households (February), Loans to Companies (February), M3 Money Supply (February)

·       Germany Ifo Business Climate/Current Conditions/Expectations (March)

·       France Unemployment (February)

·       UK CBI Distributive Trades (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Composite Economic Index (February)

·       Saudi Arabia Balance of Trade (January)

·       Turkey Business Confidence (March), Capacity Utilization (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR 

Tuesday, March 28, 2023:

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a debate on threats to international peace and security caused by terrorist acts: Countering Terrorism and preventing violent extremism conducive to terrorism by strengthening cooperation between the United Nations and regional organizations and mechanisms.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US Senate Banking Committee will hold a hearing on the recent bank failures and the Federal regulatory response.  Fed Vice Chair Michael Barr, FDIC Chair Marty Gruenberg, and Treasury Undersecretary for Domestic Finance Nellie Liang will testify.

·       To Be Confirmed: The Treasury Department said it will release proposed guidance this week for domestic sourcing requirements for electric vehicles to qualify for tax credits provided by the Inflation Reduction Act. The delayed guidance for the $7,500 tax credits was supposed to be released at the end of 2022, but the Treasury temporarily waived the rules and pushed the release date to the end of March. The announcement is being closely watched by automakers who are waiting to see how they will switch their supply chains to more domestic sources. 

·       The 2023 SAFE Summit will be held in Washington, DC, through March 29th.  The event – billed as “A pathway to electrification from minerals to market “ – will include senior Biden Administration officials, foreign leaders, and top executives speaking about the supply chains for the transportation and energy sector.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Goods Trade Balance (February), Retail Inventories (February), Redbook (March 25th), S&P/Case-Schiller Home Price Index (January), CB Consumer Confidence (March), Richmond Fed Manufacturing Indexes (March), Dallas Fed Services Indexes (March)

·       Brazil BCB Copom Meeting Minutes

·       Argentina Current Account (Q4)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia Retail Sales (February)

·       Central Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda Harukiho will give a speech at the FIN/SUM (Fintech Summit) 2023 Conference in Tokyo.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Transport, Telecommunications, and Energy Council will meet to discuss a general approach to the gas and hydrogen package, including a proposal for a directive and a proposal for a regulation on common internal market rules for renewable and natural gases and hydrogen.

·       Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey will testify before the UK Parliament’s Treasury Committee on the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Board President Christine Lagarde will give a speech at the opening ceremony of the BIS Innovation Hub Eurosystem Centre in Frankfurt.

·       ECB Board Member Andrea Enria will give a keynote speech on "How is the European Banking Supervision process changing?" at the 22nd Handelsblatt Annual Conference on Banking Supervision in Frankfurt.

·       France Business Confidence (March)

·       Italy Business Confidence/Consumer Confidence (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Qatar Balance of Trade (February)

·       Saudi Arabia Private Bank Lending (February), M3 Money Supply (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The Central African Republic celebrates the Commemoration of Boganda, honoring Barthélemy Boganda, the nation’s first prime minister.

·       Madagascar celebrates Martyrs’ Day, commemorating all those people who died in 1947 in the revolt against the French.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR 

Wednesday, March 29, 2023:

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the United Nations Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUSCO) followed by consultations. In the afternoon, the Security Council will hold consultations on the United Nations Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Biden will host the 2023 Summit for Democracy in Washington, DC.  Co-hosting the event, which runs through March 30th, will be the leaders of Costa Rica, the Netherlands, the Republic of Korea, and the Republic of Zambia and leaders from 122 nations.  Of note, the White House struck off Turkey and Hungary from the invite list.

·       The US House Financial Services Committee will hold a hearing on the response to the failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank. Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Michael Barr will testify along with other Federal regulators. Also testifying will be FDIC Chair Marty Gruenberg and Treasury Undersecretary for Domestic Finance Nellie Liang.

·       The National Association for Business Economics will hold its annual conference in Washington, DC.  World Trade Organization Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala will deliver remarks on climate and trade.  And Phillip Swagel, the Director of the Congressional Budget Office, will deliver remarks on US fiscal policy and likely talk about the debt ceiling. 

·       Today is the deadline for US federal agencies to remove TikTok from government devices.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US MBA Mortgage Market Index (March 24th), Pending Home Sales (February)

·       Brazil PPI (February), Bank Lending (February), Net Payrolls (February)

·       Paraguay GDP (Q4)

·       Argentina Economic Activity (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Consumer Confidence (March)

·       Singapore Export & Import Prices (February), PPI (February)

·       Australia CPI Indicator (March)

·       Vietnam Industrial Production (March), FDI (March), Balance of Trade (March), Inflation (March), GDP (Q1), Retail Sales (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Russia Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov meets with Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Amirabdolahian in Moscow. They are expected to discuss the situation in Syria, Afghanistan, the South Caucasus, and Caspian.

·       U.K. government expected to publish its plan to help the U.K. reach its net-zero emissions target by 2050.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Board Member Isabel Schnabel will participate in a panel discussion at the 39th Annual National Association for Business Economics (NABE) Economic Policy Conference, "Orienting Policy for a Polarized World" in Washington, D.C. 

·       ECB Governing Council Non-Monetary Policy Meeting will be held in Frankfurt.

·       Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (April)

·       France Consumer Confidence (March)

·       Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index (March)

·       UK BoE Consumer Credit (February), Mortgage Lending/Approvals (February), Car Production (February)

·       Russia GDP (February), Unemployment (February), Real Wages (January), Business Confidence (March), Corporate Profits (January), Industrial Production (February), Retail Sales (February)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Qatar GDP (Q4)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Kenya Central Bank Interest Rate Decision 

Thursday, March 30, 2023:

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on peace and security in Africa: The impact of development policies in the implementation of the Silencing the Guns agenda.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro will return to Brazil following self-imposed exile in Florida after losing the election three months ago.

·       The EU-US Trade and Technology Council will meet through March 31st in Luleå, Sweden.  US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and EU Commission Vice President Margrethe Vestager will attend.  The Council was created to find a way to ease tensions over US subsidies of domestic electric vehicles created in the Inflation Reduction Act last year. They will also discuss export controls and sanctions against Russia as well as work on global telecommunications and artificial intelligence standards. 

·       On the second day of the National Association for Business Economics annual conference, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will deliver remarks on the economy.

·       Today is opening day for Major League Baseball in the US.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin will speak at the Virginia Council of CEOs' quarterly meeting.

·       US Initial Jobless Claims (March 25th), Corporate Profits Index (Q4), GDP Growth Rate (Q4), GDP Sales (Q4), Real Consumer Spending (Q4)

·       Canada CFIB Business Barometer (March)

·       Mexico Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Fiscal Balance (February), Unemployment (February)

·       Brazil Industrial Production (January), IGP-M Inflation (March)

·       Argentina Consumer Confidence (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japan's Chief of Staff of the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force, Admiral Ryo Sakai, will visit Stirling naval base on the west coast of Australia, during a six-day trip to the country. The Indian Ocean-facing base will be a submarine hub under the AUKUS agreement with the U.S. and U.K.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia CoreLogic Dwelling Prices (March)

·       Pakistan Consumer Confidence (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       King Charles III will begin his first official visit to Germany since becoming King.  He will give a speech to the German Bundestag (parliament) and make other visits in the country through March 31st.   The King’s scheduled visit to France was canceled due to ongoing violent strikes over pension reform legislation.

·       Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov hosts Nicaraguan Foreign Minister Mocada for talks in Moscow.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The ECB’s General Council meetings in Frankfurt.

·       Eurozone Economic Sentiment/Industrial Sentiment (March), Selling Price Expectations (March), Services Sentiment (March), Consumer Confidence (March), Consumer Inflation Expectations (March)

·       Germany Inflation (march)

·       Spain Inflation (March), Retail Sales (February), Business Confidence (March)

·       Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (March)

·       Italy Unemployment Rate (February), PPI (February)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Economic Confidence Index (March), MPC Meeting Summary), FX Reserves (March 24th)

·       Egypt Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

·       Kuwait Private Bank Lending (February), M2 Money Supply (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Kenya’s opposition party will call for nationwide anti-government protests over the cost of living.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Private Sector Credit (February), M3 Money Supply (February), PPI (February)

Friday, March 31, 2023: 

Global

·       NSTR

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech on "The Unstable Phillips Curve" at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Macroeconomics and Monetary Policy Conference, San Francisco, California.

·       US Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook gives a speech on “The U.S. Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy” at the 2023 Midwest Economics Association 87th Annual Meeting, Cleveland, Ohio.

·       US Core PCE Price Index (February), Personal Income (February), Chicago PMI (March), Michigan Consumer Sentiment (March), Michigan Consumer Expectations (March), Michigan Current Conditions (March), Michigan Inflation Conditions (March)

·       Canada GDP (January), Budget Balance (January)

·       Brazil Unemployment (February), Nominal Budget Balance (February), Gross Debt to GDP (February)

·       Costa Rica GDP (Q4), Current Account (Q4)

·       Colombia Unemployment (February), Cement Production (February)

·       El Salvador Current Account (Q4), GDP (Q4)

·       Paraguay Current Account (Q2)

·       Uruguay Current Account (Q4), Balance of Trade (February)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China NBS Manufacturing PMI & Non-Manufacturing PMI (March)

·       India External Debt (Q4), Government Budget Value (February), FX Reserves (March 24th), Infrastructure Output (February), Current Account (Q4)

·       Japan Unemployment (February), Core CPI (March), Industrial Production (February), Retail Sales (February), Housing Starts (February), Construction Orders (February)

·       Australia Housing Credit (February), Private Sector Credit (February)

·       Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing (March)

·       Singapore URA Property Index (Q1), Bank Lending (February)

·       Hong Kong Retail Sales (February)

·       Philippines Budget Balance (February), Business & Consumer Confidence (Q1)

·       Sri Lanka Inflation (March), Current Account (Q4)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       In the UK, London Heathrow Security Staff will go strike seeking better pay.  Also, members of the Unite union working at Devonport Dockyard in Plymouth resume their strike over pay.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Board President Christine Lagarde participates in a Q&A session with students at "Nuovi incontri per il Futuro - Future-oriented meetings" organized by Osservatorio Permanente Giovani-Editori in Florence, Italy.

·       Eurozone Inflation (March), Unemployment (February), CPI (March)

·       Germany Retail Sales (February), Import Prices (February), Unemployment (March)

·       France Inflation (March), PPI (February), Household Consumption (February)

·       UK Current Account (Q4), GDP (Q4), Business Investment (Q4), Nationwide Housing Prices (March)

·       Italy Industrial Sales (January), Inflation (March), CPI (March)

·       Switzerland Retail Sales (February)

·       Poland Inflation (March)

·       Spain Current Account (January)

·       Ukraine Current Account (February)

·       Russia M2 Money Supply (February)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (February)

·       Egypt M2 Money Supply (February)

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Balance of Trade (February)

·       Nigeria FX Reserves (March)

·       Uganda Inflation (March), GDP (Q4)

·       Rwanda PPI (February)

·       Kenya Inflation (March)

Saturday, April 1, 2023: 

Global

·       It’s April Fools’ Day.  Beware!

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Peru Inflation (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Current Account (Q4)

·       South Korea Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

·       ECB Board Member Luis de Guindos participates in a panel at the event "The outlook for the economy and finance" organized by Ambrosetti.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Sunday, April 2, 2023: 

Global

·       Much of the Christian world celebrates Palm Sunday.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       In Japan, the government will officially launch the Children and Families Agency. The new organization will be tasked with helping the development of children (and encouragement for families to have children), including their health and security, as the country grapples with a fast-declining birthrate.

·       In Australia, Daylight Savings Time ends.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Paris will vote on whether or not to ban electric scooters.

·       Montenegro holds the 2nd round of the presidential elections.

·       Bulgaria holds parliamentary elections.

·       Finland holds parliamentary elections.

·       Andorra holds parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Iran celebrates Islamic Republic Day, marking the day the Shah was overthrown, and the current Islamic regime took power.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

·       NSTR

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