Global Week Ahead
Memorial Day is a week from this Monday, traditionally seen as the beginning of Summer in the US. Much of the rest of the Northern Hemisphere is roughly on the same seasonal scheduling, and we suspect we are looking forward to (hopefully) a peaceful and somewhat relaxing summer. But before we get to our beach vacations or mountain hideaways for a break, plenty is going on geopolitically.
First, as we got ready to publish this note, news broke that Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and other senior Iranian officials had gone down in a helicopter crash in the northwest sector of Iran. The video footage of the rescue effort showed a dense fog hanging over the mountainous terrain, and no one had found the wreckage yet, nor had we known who was still alive.
However, the impact of any Iranian leadership will likely worry the markets. We would note, however, that Raisi is not the ultimate leader – Supreme Leader Khamenei is – and the idea of any internal struggles or regional risk developing from the crash is unlikely for many reasons (which we would be more than happy to discuss if you want separately).
Also, this week, Taiwan inaugurates a new president on Monday. Lai Ching-te is replacing Tsai Ing-wen, and Lai’s inauguration speech will be closely watched for signs of how he will navigate the tense cross-strait relationship with China. Lai’s cabinet choices and his experience in and around the government suggest a status quo relationship with Beijing going forward (not great, but hopefully not getting more inflamed).
Meanwhile, later this week, the Prime Ministers of Japan, China, and South Korea will gather for the first time since 2019 for trilateral meetings in Seoul, South Korea. China—which is Japan’s and South Korea’s largest trading partner—will likely warn the two countries about their growing security and trade engagement with the US. However, a good portion of the talks will be on mutual concerns and interests, such as climate change, the situation in North Korea, and trade.
Looking at the global economic radar screen this week, G7 finance ministers and central bank heads will gather in Italy later this week to discuss the global economic outlook and the economic impact of the Russian War on Ukraine. Watch for further decisions on whether to seize Russian assets held in the West to fund the Ukrainian defense efforts.
Regarding economic data releases this week, the Federal Reserve releases its meeting minutes on Wednesday. Staying in the US, the University of Michigan Survey comes out on Friday, and durable goods orders are also available.
In Europe, markets will watch the UK inflation data report, the German PPI report, and Germany’s Q1 GDP figures.
In Asia, Japan releases its CPI on Friday, while China provides its monthly decision on its loan prime rate. Finally, central bank monetary meetings will be held in Indonesia, South Korea, and Turkey this week.
Below is what else we are watching around the world this coming week:
Sunday, May 19, 2024
Global
· The UN’s 10th World Water Forum, under the theme ‘Water for Shared Prosperity’, will take play 18-25 May in Bali, Indonesia. Heads of state, heads of international organizations, high level government officials, experts, scholars, entrepreneurs and economists from all over the world will share their knowledges, experiences, and practices regarding a wide range of topics related to water.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· The Dominican Republic holds presidential and legislative elections. Incumbent President Luis Abinader, from the Modern Revolutionary Party (PRM), is expected to win a second term.
· President Joe Biden delivers address at Morehouse College’s commencement ceremony. Protests are expected over the US support for Israel and a number of faculty, and students have demanded the invitation be rescinded.
· U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan will travel to Saudi Arabia and Israel through May 19.
· Mexican opposition supporters will march in Mexico City and other major cities across the country to support democracy and partially to support presidential candidate Xochitl Galvez.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome H. Powell gives the Commencement Remarks at the Georgetown Law Commencement Ceremony in Washington, D.C.
· The Atlanta Federal Reserve holds their 28th Annual Financial Markets Conference. A number of central bankers, market participants, and other experts will be speaking.
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Cambodia and China will conduct "Golden Dragon" military exercises through May 30.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Truck drivers in South Africa will go on strike across the country to protest the employment of foreign nationals within the local logistics industry.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Monday, May 20, 2024
Global
· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on threats to international peace and security. In the afternoon, it is expected to hold a vote on a draft resolution on non-proliferation.
· The UN’s Global Transparency Forum is set to take place from 20 to 21 May 2024 at the United Nations University in Tokyo, Japan. The forum will discuss the pivotal role of transparency in climate action as required under the Enhanced Transparency Framework (ETF) of the Paris Agreement. The forum is organized by the Capacity-building Initiative for Transparency - Global Support Programme (CBIT-GSP), with support from the Global Environment Facility (GEF), the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the UNEP Copenhagen Climate Centre (UNEP-CCC), UNDP Climate Promise and it is hosted by the Ministry of the Environment of Japan.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic to give welcome remarks before the 2024 Financial Markets Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. Later that day, at 6:00 p.m. he will moderate a session at the Conference’s dinner.
· US Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Bank of New York jointly host the annual International Roles of the US Dollar conference today and tomorrow in Washington. Speakers include Fed governor Christopher Waller.
· The Peterson Institute for International Economics hosts a virtual discussion entitled "The U.S. economy and monetary policy” with Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller.
· Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson gives a speech entitled “U.S. Economic Outlook and Housing Price Dynamics” at the Mortgage Bankers.
· Mexico Retail Sales (March)
· Chile Current Account (Q1)/ GDP Growth Rate (Q1)
· Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout
· Argentina Leading Indicator (April)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Taiwan holds the presidential inauguration ceremonies for Lai Ching-te who is replacing Tsai Ing-wen. It also starts an unprecedented third-term in power for Taiwan’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). Lai's inauguration speech will be closely watched for signs of how he will navigate the tense cross-strait relationship with China.
· Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman arrives in Tokyo for a four-day official visit, accompanied by Saudi business leaders for talks with Japanese companies on investments and climate technology co-operation.
· India begins its 5th phase of elections, Lok Sabha.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Financial markets closed for the fifth phase of the parliamentary elections.
· Thailand GDP Growth Rate (Q1)
· Indonesia Current Account (Q1)
· Malaysia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)
· Japan Tertiary Industry Index (March)
· Taiwan Export Orders (April)/ Current Account (Q1)
· Hong Kong Unemployment Rate (April)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's term will end. He then becomes the “acting” president has elections have been suspended due to the war.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Financial markets in Germany, Switzerland, Denmark, Norway, Belgium, and Austria are closed for Whi Monday (The day after Pentecost holiday).
· Bank of England Deputy Governor Ben Broadbent speaks at the New Evidence on the Monetary Transmission Mechanism workshop in London.
· Italy Construction Output (March)
· Spain Balance of Trade (March)/ Consumer Confidence (April)
· Slovakia Unemployment Rate (April)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Kazakhstan Business Confidence (Q1)
· Kuwait Inflation Rate (April)
· Oman M2 Money Supply (March)/ Total Credit (March)
· Qatar Inflation Rate (April)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Kenya GDP Growth Rate (Q4)
Tuesday, May 21, 2024
Global
· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an Open Debate on the protection of civilians in armed conflict: 25th Anniversary of SCR 1265 (1999).
· The UN’s Trade and Development Organization hosts the inaugural Global Supply Chain Forum in Bridgetown, Barbados.
· The OECD’s Forum on Responsible Mineral Supply Chains will be held through May 24 in Paris.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· The Wall Street Journal’s Future of Everything Festival begins and runs through May 23 in New York.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin to give opening remarks before the"2024 Investing in Rural America Conference: Building and Maintaining Momentum" hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
· Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic to give "welcome back" remarks before the 2024 Financial Markets Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
· New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams to give opening remarks at 2024 Governance and Culture Reform Conference.
· Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives welcoming remarks at the Third Conference on the International Roles of the U.S. Dollar, Washington, D.C.
· Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic to moderate "Central Banking in the Post-Pandemic Financial System" panel before the 2024 Financial Markets Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
· USA Redbook (May/18/API Crude Oil Stock Change (May/17)
· Canada Inflation Rate (April)/ CPI Median (April)
· Argentina Balance of Trade (April)
· Paraguay Interest Rate Decision
· Brazil Federal Tax Revenues (April)
· Costa Rica Balance of Trade (April)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· The Indo-Pacific Business Forum begins in Manila. Co-hosted by the US and the Philippines, the event allows networking and discussions about critical infrastructure needs in the region.
Economic Reports/Events –
· South Korea Consumer Confidence (May)
· Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (May)/ RBA Meeting Minutes
· New Zealand Credit Card Spending (April)/ Global Dairy Trade Price Index (May/21)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol participate in the AI Seoul Summit, building on the Bletchley Declaration and the discussions of the Summit hosted by the UK last year.
· The 8th EU-Republic of Moldova Association Council will be held in Brussels. The meeting is considered particularly important as Moldova has increasingly become a focus for Russian interference with rising risk of further destabilization. There is a break-away providence of Moldova – Transnistria – which has sworn their alliance to Moscow.
· The EU General Affairs Council meets in Brussels. Minister are expected to discuss Ukraine, security and defense issues, general trade and investment competitiveness, and the next institutional EU cycle.
· The EU Transport, Telecommunication, and Energy Council (Telecom) meets in Brussels to discuss collaborative approach for consistent implementation of the recently adopted legislation in the digital field. The Council will also approve conclusions on the future of EU’s digital policy and on the future of cybersecurity. Over an informal lunch, ministers will discuss the subject of promoting digital skills for an inclusive digital transformation and inclusion. Finally, as an item without discussion, the Council is expected to adopt the artificial intelligence act.
· The EU Competitiveness Council (Internal Market & Industry) meets in Brussels. The ministers are expected to approve Council conclusions on “A competitive European industry driving our green, digital and resilient industrial future”.
· German Economy Minister Robert Habeck attends the start of the main construction phase of NeuConnect, the first direct power link between Germany and the U.K., in Wilhemshaven, Germany.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey delivers a lecture in honor of London School of Economics Charles Goodhart, hosted by the Financial Markets Group.
· Bank of England External Member of the Financial Policy Committee Randall Kroszner gives the keynote speech at the London City Week Conference entitled “Balancing the productivity opportunities of financial technology and AI against the potential risks” in London.
· Bank of England Executive Director for Financial Market Infrastructure Sasha Mills gives a speech at the London City Week Conference in London.
· Germany PPI (April)
· Euro Area ECB President Lagarde Speech/ Current Account (March)/ Balance of Trade (March)/ Construction Output (March)
· Greece Current Account (March)
· CBI Industrial Trends Orders (May
· Slovenia PPI (April)
· Italy Current Account (March)
· Hungary Interest Rate Decision
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Lebanon Inflation Rate (April)
· Israel Inflation Expectations (May)
· Qatar M2 Money Supply (April)/ Total Credit Growth (April)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· The International Energy Agency’s annual Global Conference on Energy Efficiency will take place in Nairobi through May 22. This is the first time the Conference has been held in Africa.
Economic Reports/Events –
· South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (March)
· Nigeria Interest Rate Decision
Wednesday, May 22, 2024
Global
· The World Trade Organization (WTO) holds its General Council meeting in Geneva, Switzerland.
· The UN Security Council is scheduled to go into consultations on the 1718 Committee (this goes to UN sanctions on North Korea).
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development hosts a conference on economic and trade policies in Latin America in Paris, France at the OECD headquarters.
Economic Reports/Events –
· USA Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes published, MBA Purchase Index (May/17)/ Existing Home Sales (April)/ EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (May/17)
· Paraguay PPI (April)
· Argentina Economic Activity (March)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· South Korea Business Confidence (May)/ PPI (April)
· Japan Reuters Tankan Index (May)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)/ Machinery Orders (March)
· New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
· Indonesia Loan Growth (April)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Deposit & Lending Facility Rate (May)
· Taiwan Unemployment Rate (April)
· Australia RBA Payments System Board Meeting
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· The Foreign Ministers of Poland, France, and Germany – the “Weimar Triangle” – will meet in Thuringia, Germany.
Economic Reports/Events –
· ECB President Christine Lagarde gives a video message at an ESMA online event focused on the launch of its position paper on the effectiveness of capital markets in the EU.
· Bank of England deputy governor for financial stability Sarah Breeden speaks at the European Commission technical workshop in Brussels on macroprudential policies for non-bank financial intermediation.
· The ECB Governing Council holds a retreat hosted by the Bank of Ireland.
· Euro Area New Car Registrations (April)
· Great Britain Inflation Rate (April)/ PPI Input & Output (April)/ Public Sector Net Borrowing (April)
· Poland Corporate Sector Wages (April)/ Employment Growth (April)/ Industrial Production (April)/ PPI (April)
· Ireland Wholesale Prices (April)
· Russia PPI (April)
· Turkey Central Government Debt (April)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Israel Manufacturing PMI (April)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· South Africa Inflation Rate (April)
Thursday, May 23, 2024
Global
· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an Open Debate on maintenance of international peace and security: Strengthening the role of the African state in addressing global security and development challenges.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· President Biden hosts Kenyan President William Ruto to celebrate 60 years of diplomatic relations. Talks between the two leaders are expected to focus on clean energy, mutual trade and a possible free trade agreement, and security concerns in Africa.
· US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen awarded honorary doctorate by Frankfurt School of Finance & Management in Frankfurt, Germany.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic to participate in a virtual question-and-answer session with students in MBA macroeconomic class at the Stanford Graduate School of Business.
· Brazil BCB National Monetary Council Meeting
· Mexico GDP Growth Rate Final (Q1)/ Economic Activity (March)/ Mid-month Inflation Rate (May)/ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
· Canada New Housing Price Index (April)
· USA Chicago Fed National Activity Index (April)/ Initial Jobless Claims (May/18)/ S&P Global Bank Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (May)/ New Home Sales (April)/ Kansas Fed Composite & Manufacturing Index (May)
· El Salvador Balance of Trade (April)
· Argentina Retail Sales (March)
· Chile Interest Rate Decision
· Peru Current Account (Q1)/ GDP Growth Rate (Q1)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Nikkei hosts the 29th Future of Asia Forum in Tokyo through May 24. This year's main theme is "Asian leadership in an uncertain world." Political leaders set to attend the two-day event include Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, Thai Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin, Singapore Deputy Prime Minister Gan Kim Yong, Vietnam Deputy Prime Minister Le Minh Khai and Cambodia's Deputy Prime Minister Sun Chanthol.
Economic Reports/Events –
· New Zealand Retail Sales (Q1)
· Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (May)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (May)
· Japan Foreign Bond Investment (May/18)/ Jibun Bank Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (May)
· South Korea Interest Rate Decision
· India HSBC Bank Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (May)
· Singapore Inflation Rate (April)
· Taiwan Industrial Production (April)/ Retail Sales (April)
· Hong Kong Inflation Rate (April)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Candidates vying to head next European Commission Presidency hold debate in Brussels.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Hungary Gross Wage (March)
· Turkey Consumer Confidence (May)/ TCMB Interest Rate Decision/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May/17)/ Overnight Borrowing & Lending Rate (May)
· France HCOB Bank Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (May)
· Germany HCOB Bank Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (May)
· Euro Area HCOB Bank Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (May)/ Consumer Confidence Flash (May)/ Negotiated Wage Growth (Q1)
· Poland Retail Sales (April)
· Slovenia Consumer Confidence (May)/ Unemployment Rate (March)
· Great Britain S&P Global Bank Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (May)/ BoE Pill Speech
· Slovakia Current Account (March)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Egypt Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Lending Rate
Friday, May 24, 2024
Global
· Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech at the Reykjavik Economic Conference, Reykjavik, Iceland.
· Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (May)/ Current Account (April)/ Foreign Direct Investment (April)
· Canada CFIB Business Barometer (May)/ Retail Sales (March)
· Mexico Balance of Trade (April)/ Current Account (Q1)
· USA Durable Goods Orders (April)/ Michigan Current Conditions Final (May)/ Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (May/24)
· Chile PPI (April)
· Colombia Business Confidence (April)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Today is Independence Day in East Timor, celebrating when the country gained its independence from Portugal in 1975.
Economic Reports/Events –
· New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (May)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)
· Japan Inflation Rate (April)
· Singapore GDP Growth Rate Final (Q1)/ Current Account (Q1)/ Industrial Production (April)
· Malaysia Inflation Rate (April)/ Leading Index (March)
· Taiwan M2 Money Supply (April)
· India Foreign Exchange Reserves (May/17)
· Philippines Budget Balance (April)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· NATO’s Parliamentary Assembly Spring Session opens in Sofia, Bulgaria.
· German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will meet with Portuguese Prime Minister Luís Montenegro in Berlin.
Economic Reports/Events –
· ECB Board Member Isabel Schnabel gives a keynote speech at the Bonn-Frankfurt-Mannheim PhD Conference in Bonn, Germany.
· Great Britain Gfk Consumer Confidence (May)/ Retail Sales (April)
· Germany GDP Growth Rate Final (Q1)
· Hungary Unemployment Rate (April)
· Switzerland Non-Farm Payrolls (Q1)
· France Business Confidence (May)/ Business Climate Indicator (May)
· Spain PPI (April)
· Turkey Tourist Arrivals (April)
· Slovenia Tourist Arrivals (April)
· Poland M3 Money Supply (April)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Kuwait M2 Money Supply (April)/ Private Bank Lending (April)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Today is Republic Day in Cameroon, celebrating the establishment of a unitary government in 1972 and doing away with the federal system that had been in place.
· Today is Independence Day in Eritrea, celebrating the day in 1991 when the Eritrean People’s Liberation Front moved in the capital of Asmara and reinstated independence after a war with Ethiopia.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Ivory Coast Inflation Rate (April)
· Nigeria GDP Growth Rate (Q1)
Saturday, May 25, 2024
Global
· Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Today is Revolution Day in Argentina.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· India begins its sixth phase of elections.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Jordan celebrates Independence Day today, marking the day in 1946 when the country gained its freedom from the United Kingdom.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Sunday, May 26, 2024
Global
· Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Guyana celebrates Independence Day, marking the day in 1966 when they gained their independence from the United Kingdom.
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· The Prime Ministers of China, Japan, and South Korea are scheduled to hold meetings today and through tomorrow in Seoul, South Korea. China is Japan and South Korea’s largest trading partner, and all three nations have concerns over North Korea’s behavior and posture. The meetings will also focus on climate change and other areas of mutual concern.
· Cambodia holds provincial elections.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Europe
Political/Social Events –
Political/Social Events –
· French President Emanual Macron begins an official state visit to Germany.
· Lithuania holds presidential election run-off votes.
· Today is Independence Day in Georgia.
Economic Reports/Events –
· ECB Vice President Piero Cipollone gives a speech entitled "Climate change and monetary policy" at Festival dell'Economia di Trento 2024 in Trento, Italy.
· Euro Area ECB Cipollone Speech
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Israel Unemployment Rate (April)/ Manufacturing Production (March)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.