The Global Week Ahead
May 28 - June 4, 2023
The coming week will be packed with several important market-moving events despite markets being closed in the US and most of Europe on Monday. First, the US Congress is expected to vote on a new debt ceiling increase package this week.
The House of Representatives will go first on Wednesday and the Senate on Friday, beating the likely debt ceiling breach on June 5th by only a few days. But our view is there remains some risk the deal gets blown up as numerous House Republicans are making it very clear they are not happy with the agreement. As they say, it is never over until it's over.
On the geopolitical stage, the foreign ministers of the BRICS nations gather in South Africa. The meeting is a precursor to the upcoming leaders' summit in August. While trade and economic development will be the primary issue discussed, there is no doubt the foreign ministers will be wrestling with the dilemma that if Russian President Vladimir Putin shows up for the August meeting because South Africa is required under international law to arrest him per a warrant issued by the International Criminal Court. Also, this week, The Shangri-La Dialogue Asia hosted by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) begins in Singapore. Defense ministers from the Indo-Pacific will be there.
But we will be watching closely to see if US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has a sideline meeting with Chinese Defense Minister Li Shangfu – a meeting which will be seen as a significant thaw in relations between Washington and Beijing. However, Beijing has suggested there will not be a meeting since Li was sanctioned by the US in 2018 over relationships with Russia. One to watch, nonetheless.
Two sad historical events come into focus this week: The Libyian intelligence officer who helped plant the bomb that destroyed Pam Am Flight 103 over Lockerbie, Scotland, in 1988 will finally face charges in a US Court in Washington this week. And this coming Sunday is the 34th anniversary of the clampdown and subsequent massacre in Tienmen Square 34 years ago.
On the global economic radar screen this week, markets will watch US unemployment numbers released this Friday. The Federal Reserve releases the Beige Book this week. In Europe, inflation data and labor market data will dominate the market’s attention, while ECB President Christine Lagarde gives several closely watched speeches. China releases PMI data as evidence mounts of slower growth there. And finally, a number of leading emerging markets will be releasing manufacturing PMIs and other important data this week.
Here is what else we are watching around the world this coming week:
Sunday, May 28, 2023
Global
· NSTR
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· NSTR
Economic Reports/Events –
· NSTR
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Azerbaijan marks the founding of the Democratic Republic following its liberation from the Soviet Union in 1991.
· India inaugurates its new parliament building in New Delhi.
Economic Reports/Events –
· NSTR
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Spain holds local and regional elections in 12 of the country’s 17 regions.
Economic Reports/Events –
· NSTR
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Turkey holds its Presidential run-off election.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Saudi Arabia Private Lending (April), M3 Money Supply (April)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Today is the National Day of Ethiopia, also known as the Downfall of the Derg, the military regime of Mengistu Haile Mariam in 1991.
Economic Reports/Events –
· NSTR
Monday, May 29, 2023
Global
· The UN Climate and Clean Air Conference 2023 will take place in Thailand through June 2nd.
· The UN Second Session of the Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee on Plastic Pollution meets in Paris, France, to discuss how to develop internationally legally binding laws on plastic pollution.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Today is Memorial Day in the US. Financial markets are closed.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout, Federal Tax Revenues, Net Payrolls (April)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol will host the first South Korea-Pacific Islands Summit in Seoul, South Korea. The focus of the summit will be economic cooperation and planning for climate change.
· Cambodian King Norodom Sihamoni will visit India in a state visit.
· The trial begins over the 2019 storming of the Hong Kong Legislative Council Complex.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Vietnam Inflation (May), Balance of Trade (May), Retail Sales (May), Tourist Arrivals (May), Industrial Production (May)
· Taiwan Consumer Confidence (May)
· Indonesia M2 Money Supply (April)
· Malaysia PPI (April)
· Thailand Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (April)
· Philippines Budget Balance (April)
· Singapore Import & Export Prices (April), PPI (April)
· Hong Kong Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (April)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Today is the Spring bank holiday in the UK. Financial markets are closed.
· In honor of Whit Sunday, financial markets in Germany, France, Belgium, the Netherlands, Switzerland, Norway, and several other countries are closed.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Slovenia Retail Sales (April)
· Bulgaria Central Bank Interest Rate Decision
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· NSTR
Economic Reports/Events –
· Turkey Economic Confidence Index (May),
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· In Nigeria, the former governor of Lagos state, Bola Tinubu, is to be inaugurated as Nigeria’s president after winning the country’s disputed presidential election in February with 36.6 percent of the vote.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Ghana Central Bank Interest Rate Decision
· Kenya Net Payrolls (April)
Tuesday, May 30, 2023
Global
· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold votes linked to the Annual Report to the General Assembly, as well as the United Nations Assistance Mission for Iraq (UNAMI) and South Sudan sanctions. Also, this morning, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations on the Middle East (Syria).
· IAEA chief Rafael Grossi briefs is expected to brief the UN Security Council on a plan for Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant in Ukraine. Russia's military forces have knocked the nuclear power plant – Europe’s largest nuclear power plant – offline for the 7th time since the conflict began.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will host the South American Leaders Summit in Brasilia, Brazil. There are a number of issues they intend to discuss, including deeper integration among the nations in areas such as infrastructure, health, and defense. They are also going to discuss the economic crisis in Argentina and Bolivia and how the nations can collectively work to prevent further economic damage to these countries and the broader region.
· Florida Governor and presidential candidate Ron DeSantis begin formally campaigning for president in Iowa as he travels the state.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman gives opening remarks at the Fed Listens event hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Boston, Massachusetts. Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Susan Collins will also speak.
· Federal Reserve Board Governor and Vice Chair-nominee Philip Jefferson gives a virtual speech at the 22nd Annual International Conference on Policy Challenges for the Financial Sector.
· Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Tom Barkin will speak at the National Association for Business and Economics Monetary Policy and Outlook webinar.
· US S&P/Case Schiller Housing Index (March), CB Consumer Confidence (May), Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (May)
· Canada Current Account (Q1)
· Brazil PPI (April), Banking Lending (April), IGP-M Inflation (May)
· Mexico Fiscal Balance (April)
· Uruguay Unemployment (April)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Taiwan hosts Computex Taipei, a tech industry exhibition organized by the Taiwan External Trade Development Council and the Taipei Computer Association. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang is expected to give the keynote speech.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Japan Unemployment (April)
· Philippines PPI (April)
· Australia Building Permits (April)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· The EU-US Trade and Technology Council meets in Lulea, Sweden. EU Trade Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis and EU Competition Commissioner Margrethe Vestager will meet with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai, and U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo will all be in attendance. The Council meeting will allow both sides to discuss how to cope with China’s protectionist economic policies and practices. Additionally, they will discuss greater coordination on measures like screening outbound investments as well as restricting exports of semiconductors and other sensitive technologies to China.
· The EU General Affairs Council will be held in Brussels. They will discuss a number of issues, including ongoing tensions with Hungary over ‘values’ and the Rule of Law in Poland.
· The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meets in Brussels. They will discuss the impact of the War on Ukraine, packaging and packaging waste regulation, and marketing of frozen products.
· The Netherlands will hold elections for the upper house of its parliament.
· EU President Ursula von der Leyen will meet with World Economic Forum Chairman Klaus Schwab in Brussels.
Economic Reports/Events –
· The ECB releases their Financial Stability Review pre-release: Special feature on bank and non-bank interlinkages interactions of market and funding liquidity.
· Eurozone Economic Sentiment (May), Industrial Sentiment (May), Services Sentiment (May), Consumer Confidence (May), Loans to Households (April), Me Money Supply (April)
· Italy PPI (April), Industrial Sales (March)
· Spain Inflation (April), Retail Sales (April), Business Confidence (May)
· Bulgaria Business Confidence (May), PPI (April)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· NSTR
Economic Reports/Events –
· Turkey Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (April)
· Pakistan Consumer Confidence (May)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· NSTR
Economic Reports/Events –
· South Africa Private Sector Credit (April), M3 Money Supply (April)
Wednesday, May 31, 2023
Global
· NSTR
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· The US House of Representatives is expected to vote on the debt ceiling increase legislation.
· Libyan Abu Agila Mohammad Mas’ud Kheir Al-Marimi, who worked for Libya’s External Security Organization, is due to appear in a Washington court charged with the destruction of Pan Am flight 103 in 1988. An explosion in the aircraft that was flying over the Scottish town of Lockerbie resulted in the deaths of 270 people — including 190 Americans and 43 UK citizens — 11 of whom were on the ground.
Economic Reports/Events –
· The US Federal Reserve Beige Book is released.
· Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker will speak at the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum being held in Philadelphia.
· US MBA Mortgage Index Figures (May 26th), Redbook (May 27th), Chicago PMI (May), JOLTs Reports (April), Dallas Fed Services Revenues Index (May)
· Canada GDP (Q1)
· Brazil Nominal Budget Balance (April), Gross Debt to GDP (April), Unemployment (April)
· Colombia Cement Production (April), Unemployment (April)
· Uruguay Balance of Trade (April)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Japan will participate in joint naval exercises with the US, Australia, and South Korea off Jeju Island in South Korea. Interestingly, Japanese naval vessels will fly the “rising sun” flag over its vessels which has not been flown on Japanese naval vessels off the coast of South Korea since the end of World War II.
· Nepalese Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal will visit India through June 3rd.
· The Jeju Forum begins and runs through Friday in South Korea. The Forum focuses on challenges facing the greater Asia-Pacific region. Attendees and speakers include UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres. Specific issues to be addressed include a collective response to supply chain disruption and North Korea's growing nuclear armament.
Economic Reports/Events –
· China NBS Manufacturing & Non-Manufacturing & General PMIs (May),
· Japan Retail Sales (April), Industrial Production (April), Consumer Confidence (May), Housing Starts (April), Construction Orders (April)
· India Government GDP (Q1), Infrastructure Output (April), Budget Value (March), M3 Money Supply (May 19th)
· South Korea Unemployment (April), Industrial Production (April), Retail Sales (April)
· Australia Construction Work Done (Q1), Housing Credit (April), Monthly CPI Indicator (April), Private Sector Credit (April)
· Malaysia M3 Money Supply (April)
· Thailand Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Private Consumption (April), Current Account (April), Private Investment (April), Retail Sales (April)
· Sri Lanka Inflation (May)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Latvia’s parliament elects the country’s next president. The role of the President is to represent the country internationally, while the Prime Minister has the main executive power.
· NATO begins a two-day meeting of NATO foreign ministers in Oslo, Denmark.
· French President Emmanuel Macron to address the GLOBSEC 2023 forum in Bratislava, Slovakia.
· In the UK, the Aslef union, which works across 16 train operating companies, will stage a one-day walk-out. A further walkout is scheduled for Saturday, creating major disruption for Manchester City and Manchester United fans trying to reach London to watch the FA Cup final at Wembley Stadium.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Catherine Mann takes part in a panel discussion on central banks, inflation, and monetary policy, hosted by Swiss bank Pictet in Zurich, Switzerland.
· ECB President Christine Lagarde participates in a Q&A session with high-school students at the final award ceremony of the Generation €uro Students' Award competition 2023 at the ECB headquarters.
· Germany Import Prices (April), Unemployment (May), Inflation (May)
· France Inflation (May), GDP Growth (Q1), PPI (April)
· Italy GDP (Q1), Inflation (May), CPI (May)
· Spain current Account (March)
· Slovakia GDP (Q1), Inflation (May), CPI (May)
· Hungary PPI (April)
· Serbia Balance of Trade (April), Retail Sales (April), Unemployment (Q1)
· Ukraine Current Account (April)
· Russia GDP (April) Unemployment (April), Retail Sales (April), Real Wage Growth (March), Industrial Production (April), Business Confidence (May), Corporate Profits (March)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· NSTR
Economic Reports/Events –
· Turkey GDP (Q1)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nigeria FX Reserves (May)
· South Africa Balance of Trade (April)
· Mozambique Central Bank Interest Rate Decision
Thursday, June 1, 2023
Global
· Today is the first day of the meteorological summer.
· At the UN, the General Assembly will hold a plenary meeting in which the Election of the President of the General Assembly and the Vice-President of the General Assembly for its Seventy-eighth Session will take place.
· The Chair of the UN Security Council rotates from Switzerland to the UAE for the month of June.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· President Biden gives the commencement address at the Air Force Academy.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Philadelphia Federal Reserve President Patrick Harker will speak at the National Association for Business Economics Monetary Policy and Outlook webinar.
· US Challenger Job Cuts (May), ADP Employment Change (May), Unit Labor Costs (Q1), Nonfarm Productivity (Q1), Initial Jobless Claims (May 27th), S&P Manufacturing PMIs (May), Construction Spending (April), ISM Manufacturing Figures (May)
· Brazil GDP (Q1), S&P Manufacturing PMI (May), Balance of Trade (May)
· Canada S&P Manufacturing PMI (May)
· Mexico Business Confidence (May), FX Reserves (April), Central Bank Monetary Policy Minutes, S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)
· Colombia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (May)
· Peru Inflation (May)
· Argentina Tax Revenue (May)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin will meet with his counterpart Defense Minister Yasukazu Hamada, in Japan.
· Indian opposition leader Rahul Gandhi delivers a speech at Stanford University. He travels on to Washington for meetings with members of the US Congress and key think tanks. Gandhi was recently convicted and sentenced to two years in prison for defaming Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi – which disqualified him from serving in the Indian Congress. He is currently appealing the conviction.
Economic Reports/Events –
· China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (May)
· Japan Capital Spending (Q1), Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI (May)
· India S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)
· South Korea Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (May), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)
· Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI (May), Building Capital Expenditures (Q1), Plant Machinery Capital Expenditures (Q1), Private Capital Expenditures (Q1), Retail Sales (April), Commodity Prices (May)
· Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)
· Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)
· Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)
· Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)
· Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)
· Sri Lanka Central Bank Interest Rate Decision
· Hong Kong Retails Sales (April)
· Pakistan Inflation (May), Wholesale Prices (May)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· The second meeting of the European Political Community will take place in Bulboaca, Moldava. Heads of state from 47 European countries will gather heads of state and government from 47 European countries will attend. They are expected to discuss the impact of Russia’s War on Ukraine and mutual defense and economic security issues.
· As part of the European Political Community meeting, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani Prime Minister Ilham Aliyev will hold peace talks in Brussels at a meeting chaired by European Council President Charles Michel. Also attending will be French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.
· US Secretary of State Antony Blinken visits Helsinki, Finland, and gives a speech on Russia policy.
· The EU Transport, Telecommunications, and Energy Council will meet in Luxembourg. The Council will discuss the “Fit for 55” package, namely the alternative fuel infrastructure regulation (AFIR) setting concrete targets for developing recharging and refueling points for cars, airplanes, and ships in the EU in the upcoming years, the RefuelEU aviation and FuelEU maritime regulations aiming to increase the uptake of sustainable fuels by aircraft and ships to reduce their environmental footprint.
· The Council of Baltic Sea States Foreign Ministers meeting takes place in Wismar, Germany, hosted by German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock.
Economic Reports/Events –
· ECB president Christine Lagarde speaks at the 27th German Savings Banks Conference 2023 ‘Because it’s about more than money’ in Hanover, Germany.
· ECB Monetary Policy Committee Meeting Minutes released.
· Today is the 25th anniversary of the ECB replacing the European Monetary Institute.
· ECB Board Member Andrea Enria gives a keynote speech at the 22nd Annual International Conference on Policy Challenges for the Financial Sector organized by the World Bank, International Monetary Fund, and Federal Reserve System in Washington, D.C.
· Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing PMI (May), Unemployment (April), Inflation (May), CPI (May)
· Germany Retail Sales (April), HCOB Manufacturing PMI (May)
· France Budget Balance (April), HCOB Manufacturing PMI (May)
· UK BoE Consumer Credit (April), Mortgage Lending (April), S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI (May), Mortgage Approvals (April), Nationwide Housing Prices (May)
· Spain Tourist Arrivals (April), HCOB Manufacturing PMI (May)
· Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI (May), Unemployment (April)
· Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)
· Hungary GDP (Q1), Balance of Trade (March), HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (May)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Jordan's Crown Prince Hussein will marry in Amman. He is marrying Rajwa Al Saif, a Saudi architect. She will be the future Queen of Jordan.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Egypt M2 Money Supply April)
· Turkey MPC Meeting Summary, FX Reserves (May 26)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Mali's constitutional referendum campaign will begin.
· Today is Madaka Day in Kenya, also known as Self-Governance Day, celebrating the independence of Kenya from the UK in 1963.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Kenya Inflation (May)
· Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (May), Balance of Trade (January/February/March)
· South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI (May), New Vehicle Sales (May)
Friday, June 2, 2023
Global
· The 2023 BRICS Foreign Ministers Meeting begins in Cape Town, South Africa. This is a prelude to the 14th Annual BRICS Head of State Summit to be held on August 22 in Durban, South Africa. One of the key questions that will be quietly discussed is South Africa’s legal obligations under both international and domestic law to arrest Russian President Vladimir Putin (if he participates in person). On March 17th, the International Criminal Co
· Former MasterCard Chief Executive Ajay Banga formally becomes President of the World Bank.
· The UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Food Price Index is released.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· The US Senate is expected to vote on the debt ceiling increase package.
Economic Reports/Events –
· US Unemployment (May), Total Vehicles Sales (May)
· Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (May), Industrial Production (April)
· Mexico Unemployment (April)
· Uruguay Inflation (May)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· The Shangri-La Dialogue Asia hosted by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) begins in Singapore. Australian prime minister Anthony Albanese will deliver the keynote address. US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin will also address the conference, and all eyes will be on whether there is a sideline meeting between Austin and his Chinese counterpart, Defense Minister Li Shangfu. Beijing has indicated they are unlikely to allow the meeting since Li was placed under sanctions in 2018 by the US in relation to Chinese imports of Russian arms.
Economic Reports/Events –
· South Korea GDP (Q1), Inflation (May), CPI (May)
· India FX Reserves (May 26th), Bank Loan Growth (May 19th)
· Australia Home Loans (April)
· Singapore SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (May)
· Thailand Business Confidence (May), FX Reserves (May)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· The European Space Agency holds a conference in Vienna, Austria, entitled “Ready for the Moon,” to discuss EU space exploration.
· In the UK, rail workers who are members of the RMT union begin a 24-hour strike in their ongoing dispute with the train operating companies over pay.
· Today is Republic Day in Italy, celebrating when Italians were called to vote on forming a government after World War II.
Economic Reports/Events –
· France Industrial Production (April)
· Spain Unemployment (May)
· Slovenia Balance of Trade (April)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· NSTR
Economic Reports/Events –
· Turkey Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (May)
Africa:
Political/Social Events –
· NSTR
Economic Reports/Events –
· NSTR
Saturday, June 3, 2023
Global
· NSTR
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· The SpaceX CRS-28 flight to the International Space Station launches from Florida’s Kennedy Space Center with a Falcon 9 rocket, delivering supplies and equipment to the orbiting station.
Economic Reports/Events –
· NSTR
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· NSTR
Economic Reports/Events –
· NSTR
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· NSTR
Economic Reports/Events –
· NSTR
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· NSTR
Economic Reports/Events –
· NSTR
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· NSTR
Economic Reports/Events –
· NSTR
Sunday, June 4, 2023
Global
· OPEC+ holds a ministers’ meeting in person in Vienna, Austria.
· The 79th Annual General Meeting & World Air Transport Summit 2023 takes place in Istanbul, Turkey, through June 6th. This is the world’s largest gathering of airline leaders.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· The State of Mexico holds elections for governor.
Economic Reports/Events –
· NSTR
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Today is the 34th anniversary of the Tiananmen Square clampdown and massacre.
Economic Reports/Events –
· NSTR
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· NSTR
Economic Reports/Events –
· NSTR
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Morocco trade unionists are expected to call a national protest against the cost-of-living crisis.
Economic Reports/Events –
· NSTR
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Guinea-Bissau holds legislative elections.
Economic Reports/Events –
· NSTR
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