The Global Week Ahead

Written By Francis Kelly

July 30 - August 6, 2023

Summer holidays are now in full force.  In Washington, Congress adjourned for their annual August recess and won’t return until almost mid-September.  Brussels, London, and Berlin (which went on holiday two weeks ago) are also quiet - indeed, empty - as government officials and staff have disappeared to the beaches or mountains.  The same is true for most financial markets.  The Summer Doldrums are upon us.

But there are still plenty of important things happening around the world this week.  China implements its new ban on exporting germanium and gallium. Both are critical raw materials used in semiconductors and other electronics, and the technology industry is scrambling to figure out how to make up for the shortfall.  Overall, China produces more than 90 percent of both germanium and gallium. 

Also, this week,  the US takes the chair of the UN Security Council for August.  US Secretary of State Antony Blinken will personally chair a special meeting to discuss the “Famine and conflict-induced global food insecurity” – an issue that goes right to Russia’s recent abrogation of the Black Sea Grain Initiative (which seems to be official dead as Russia refused to negotiate).  Meanwhile, the foreign ministers of the states of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation will discuss burnings of the Koran in Sweden and Denmark at an extraordinary virtual meeting.  Both burnings have sparked widespread protests and outrage in the greater Muslim world that does not seem to be calming down.

On the global economic radar screen, a lot of economic data is hitting the markets his week.  Markets will be particularly watching China’s PMIs for further indications of the size and scope of the country’s fading economic recovery.   In Europe, markets will also focus on the Eurozone’s CIP and GDP numbers, the Bank of England’s policy meeting, and the Reserve Bank of Australia’s rates decision.   In the Americas, the Central Bank of Brazil meets, while in the US, jobs data and productivity data are reported. 

Here is what else we are watching around the world this coming week:

Sunday, July 30, 2023 

Global

  • NSTR

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • The Panama Canal Authority will begin limiting daily transit capacity due to severe drought conditions.  They are expected to allow only 32 ships per day.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • APEC holds a meeting on the Finance Ministers’ Process in Seattle, Washington.

  • In Panama, the trial of 36 defendants, including ex-presidents Ricardo Martinelli and Juan Carlos Varela, accused of money laundering with Brazilian construction group Odebrecht.

  • Chile hands over the presidency of the Pacific Alliance to Peru.

  • Today is Independence Day in Vanuatu, marking the day in 1980 when they were granted their independence from Great Britain.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • Russia celebrates Naval Day.  Traditionally, the country shows off its latest weapons, ships, and aircraft, but it is not clear what will happen this year due to the Ukrainian invasion.  While on paper, Russia has the second-largest naval fleet in the world.  But the reality is many of those ships are small - Russia currently has only one aircraft carrier (to the US Navy’s eleven super-carriers) – and they place most of their focus on nuclear submarines, although that has reportedly been cut back due to the costs of the Ukraine invasion.

  • Italy may declare a state of emergency to deal with the heatwave the country has been enduring.

  • French Economy Minister Bruno Le Maire visits Beijing to discuss economic and trade issues.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • The Central African Republic will hold a referendum on changing the constitution to allow incumbent President Faustin-Archange Touadéra to run for a third term in 2025.  Ominously, the Russian Wagner Group will be serving as “guards” for the referendums voting centers.

  •  The Economic Community of West African States will meet in Abuja, Nigeria, to discuss Niger's July 26 coup.

  • Today is Enthronement Day in Morocco, celebrating the day King Mohammed VI took the throne in 1999.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Monday, July 31, 2023

Global

  • The foreign ministers of the states of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation will discuss the burnings of the Koran in Sweden and Denmark at an extraordinary virtual meeting. 

  • The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on threats to international peace and security.

  • The UN’s Humanitarian Coordinator in Ukraine, Denise Brown. She will brief reporters virtually on the humanitarian situation in the country, including in Odesa.

  • The US assumes the chair of the UN Security Council for the month of August.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • The US Congress is out of session for the month of August.  The House of Representatives returns on September 12, and the Senate on September 5.

  • Former President Trump may face new criminal charges this week by Special Counsel Jack Smith over allegations of his involvement in the January 6th attack on the US Capitol.

  • Republican Presidential candidate and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis releases his “Declaration of Economic Independence” during a speech in New Hampshire.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • US Chicago PMI (July), Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (July), Loan Officer Survey

  • Mexico GDP (Q2)

  • Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout, Private Bank Lending (June), M3 Money Supply (June)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • China NBS Manufacturing & General PMIs (July)

  • Japan Retail Sales (June), Industrial Production (July), Consumer Confidence (July), Housing Starts (June), Construction Orders (June)

  • India Government Budget Value (June)

  • Australia TD-MI Inflation Gauge (July), Housing Credit (June), Private Sector Credit (June),

  • Singapore Bank Lending (June), Business Confidence (Q2)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • EU President von der Leyen travels to the Philippines for meetings with Ferdinand Marcos Jr., President of the Philippines.  While there, she will deliver a keynote speech at the business event “A New Era of EU-Philippines Relations, driven by Stronger Trade and Investment for a sustainable future" in Manila.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • ECB Survey of Monetary Analysts, GDP (Q2), Inflation (July), CPI (July)

  • Germany Retail Sales (June), Import Prices (June)

  • UK Mortgage Lending (June), BoE Consumer Credit (June)

  • Italy GDP (Q2), Inflation (July), CPI (July)

  • Spain Current Account (May)

  • Russia  Monetary Policy Report, M3 Money Supply (June)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Lebanon's Central Bank head Riad Salameh will leave office.  No successor has been named, which is likely to further exacerbate the country’s economic crisis.

  • Turkey’s President Erdogan meets Iraqi President Rashid and PM Sudani, Baghdad. Discussions will focus on the resumption of an oil pipeline from the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region to the Turkish port of Ceyhan, the fight against the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), and the water crisis.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Saudi Arabia GDP (Q2), Private Bank Lending (June), M3 Money Supply (June)

  • Turkey Tourism Revenues (Q2), Tourist Arrivals (June)

  • Pakistan’s Central Bank monetary policy meeting.

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • South Africa Trade Balance (June), FX Reserves (June), Private Sector Credit (June)

  • Kenya Inflation (July)

  • Uganda Inflation (July)

  • Ghana mid-term budget

 

Tuesday, August 1, 2023 

Global

  • NSTR

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Guyana celebrates Emancipation Day, marking the day when slavery was abolished in 1838.

  • TikTok plans to launch its US e-commerce business sometime this week, placing it in competition with Amazon, Shein, and Temu.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • US Redbook (July 29), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July), ISM Manufacturing PMI (July), JOLTS Job Openings (July), ISM Manufacturing Employment (July), Construction Spending (June), Dallas Fed Services Indexes (July), LMI Logistics Managers Index (July)

  • Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

  • Mexico FX Reserves (June), Business Confidence (July), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

  • Brazil Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Industrial Production (June), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July), Balance of Trade (July)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • China’s new export ban on germanium and gallium goes into effect.  Both are critical raw materials used in semiconductors and other electronics. According to Nikkei, the ban is “expected to affect chipmakers and key substrate suppliers, including Coherent, Wolfspeed, and AXT of the U.S.; Israeli-German Freiberger; and Japan's Sumitomo Electric, all of which require those raw materials. The export controls may also have ripple effects down the chip supply chain as, on average in recent years, China has produced 90% of the world's germanium and over 90% of its gallium.”

  • China celebrates Army Day, marking the foundation of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Reserve Bank of Australia Statement on Monetary Policy.

  • China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (July)

  • Japan Unemployment (June), Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI (July)

  • India S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

  • South Korea Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (July), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

  • Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI (July), Home Loans (June), Building Permits (June), CoreLogic Dwelling Prices (July), Commodity Prices (July)

  • Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July), Inflation (July), Tourist Arrivals (June)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • Today is National Day in Switzerland.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing PMI (July), Unemployment (June)

  • Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (July), Unemployment (July)

  • France HCOB Manufacturing PMI (July)

  • UK Nationwide Housing Prices (July), S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI (July)

  • Spain HCOB Manufacturing PMI (July), New Car Sales (July)

  • Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI (July)

  • Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Turkey Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (July)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • The Nigeria Labour Congress, a powerful confederation of unions, will strike over fuel subsidies and other economic policies.

  • Benin celebrates its Independence Day, marking the day in 1960 when the country gained its independence from France.

  • Economic Reports/Events –

  • South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI (July), Total New Vehicle Sales (July)

  • Nigeria PMI (July)

  

 

Wednesday, August 2, 2023

Global

  • The G20 Ministerial Meeting on Women's Empowerment will be held in Gandhinagar, India.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

 

Economic Reports/Events –

  • US MBA Mortgage Indexes (July 28), ADP Employment (July), Total Vehicle Sales (July)

  • Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (July)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, Jibun Bank Services & Composite PMIs (July)

  • South Korea Inflation (July), CPI (July), Inflation (July)

  • Reserve Bank of Australia Chart Pack, Australia Ai Group Indexes (July)

  • Singapore S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

  • Bank of Thailand Interest Rate Decision

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • Pope Francis begins a six-day visit to Portugal, including visiting the holy shrine of Fatima.

  • North Macedonia celebrates Republic Day, marking when there was an uprising against the Ottoman Empire in 1903 as well as the first Anti-Fascist Assembly for the National Liberation of Macedonia in 1944.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Spain Unemployment (July), Tourist Arrivals (June)

  • Russia GDP (June), Unemployment (June), Business Confidence (July), Real Wage Growth (May), Retail Sales (June)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Turkey Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (July), Auto Sales (July)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR 

 

Thursday, August 3, 2023

Global

  • The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate in connection with “Famine and conflict-induced global food insecurity” under the agenda item “Maintenance of international peace and security.”   US Secretary of State Antony Blinken will chair the session.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • The six-month-old cease-fire between the Colombian government and the National Liberation Army (ELN) – a rebel group – begins.

Economic Reports/Events –

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Pakistan’s former Prime Minister Imran Khan's trial in a graft case involving his alleged non-disclosure of assets after selling state gifts resumes.  Protests are expected around the country.

  • APEC Food Security Ministers meet in Seattle, Washington.

  • Economic Reports/Events –

  • China Caixin Services & Composite PMIs (July)

  • Japan Jipun Bank Services PMI (July)

  • India S&P Global Services & Composite PMIs (July)

  • Judo Bank Services & Composite PMIs (July), Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (June)

  • Australia Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (June), Retail Sales (June)

  • Singapore S&P Global PMI (July)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • Today is the deadline for the European Commission's decision on the Korean Air-Asiana merger.

  • In the UK, GMB union members begin a strike at Amazon’s Rugeley fulfillment center in Staffordshire in a dispute over pay. Another two-day strike is planned at the e-commerce company’s Coventry warehouse tomorrow by up to 1,000 staff.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • The Bank of England interest rate policy, BoE Monetary Policy Report & Minutes

  • ECB Board Member Fabio Panetta gives a speech via webinar on "Getting disinflation right," organized by Bocconi University, Milan 

  • Eurozone HCOB Services & Composite PMIs (July), PPIs (June),

  • Germany Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (June), HCOB Services & Composite PMIs (July), New Car Registrations (July)

  • UK S&P Global/CIPS Services & Composite PMIs (July)

  • France Budget Balance (June), HCOB Services & Composite PMIs (July)

  • Spain HCOB Services & Composite PMIs (July)

  • Italy HCOB Services & Composite PMIs (July)

  • Russia S&P Global Services & Composite PMIs (July)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (July)

  • Turkey Inflation (July), PPI (July), CPI (July), FX Reserves (July)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • South Africa S&P Global PMIs (July)

  • Kenya PMIs (July)

  • Ghana PMIs (July)

  • Zambia PMIs (July)

  • Mozambique PMIs (July)

  • Uganda PMIs (July)

 

Friday, August 4, 2023

Global

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • US Unemployment Rate (July)

  • Canada Unemployment (July), Ivey PMI (July)

  • Mexico Auto Exports (July), Auto Production (July)

  • Brazil Car Production (July)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Thailand’s Parliament will meet yet again in an effort to choose a prime minister.  But much depends on what the Constitutional Court decides on August 1st as to whether the Move Forward Party Leader Pita Limjaroenrat can be excluded – as the parliament voted to do last week – or if he can stand for the prime minister.

  • Japanese Foreign Minister Hayashi Yoshimasa continues a multinational trip across Asia and Africa.  He began the trip on July 27 and is visiting India, Sri Lanka, India, the Maldives, South Africa, Uganda, and Ethiopia. 

  • Japan hosts its first joint fighter jet exercises with Italy through Tuesday. 

  • The Cook Islands celebrates Constitution Day.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • India FX Reserves (July 28)

  • Singapore Retail Sales (June)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

  • Ghana celebrates Founder’s Day, commemorating its struggle for independence from the UK.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Zambia mid-term budget

  • Uganda Second Quarter Current Account

 

Saturday, August 5, 2023 

Global

  • NSTR

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • China Current Account (Q2)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Today is Burkina Faso Independence Day, marking when the country gained its independence from France.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Sunday, August 6, 2023

Global

  • NSTR

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Today is Independence Day in Bolivia, marking when the country declared its independence from Spain in 1825.

  • Jamaica celebrates Independence Day, marking the day it gained independence from the UK.

  • El Salvador celebrates San Salvador Day, celebrating the Divine Savior for whom the country is named.  It is a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • APEC holds a high-level meeting on Health and the Economy in Seattle, Washington.

  • Today is the78th anniversary of the atomic bomb being dropped on Hiroshima.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

  

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Francis Kelly
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