The Global Week Ahead

Written By Francis Kelly

October 15 - 22, 2023

In life, it is rare to begin a week knowing that by its end, unfolding geopolitical events will likely result in all of us living in a very different world.  This appears to be one of those such weeks as Israel prepares to enter Gaza to destroy Hamas after their vile attack nine days ago, killing more than 1,400 Israelis and wounding more than 3,000.  Iran has threatened Israel (the U.S.) if and when Israel moves on Gaza.  Iranian-controlled Hezbollah forces in Lebanon have already ramped up artillery and missile strikes into northern Israel, while other Iranian-backed militias are reportedly mobilizing in Syria near the Israeli border.  All this is happening as more than one million Gazans are urged to evacuate by Israel.

We are now watching to see if President Joe Biden visits Israel later this week, as Israeli officials confirm such a visit is possible. 

Elsewhere in the world this week, China hosts the 3rd Annual Belt and Road Initiative Forum in Beijing, where China’s President Xi Jinping will meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin on the sidelines.  This will be the first time Putin has traveled outside Russia since the International Criminal Court issued a warrant for him in March over the deportation of children to Ukraine and other possible war crimes.  We will be watching closely for what deals the two leaders strike.

While this is happening, China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi is reportedly going to visit Washington this week for meetings with President Biden and U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, where they will discuss the situation in Israel and a possible Biden meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the APEC Summit in November in San Francisco.  Foreign Minister Wang’s visit will likely come as the U.S. Department of Commerce issues long-awaited new restrictions on certain semiconductors and other high-tech equipment to China.

Another big event is being held in Washington this week: The EU-US Summit.  Hosted by President Biden, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President Charles Michel will seek to hammer out significant agreements on steel, critical minerals, and other trade issues.  They will also talk about Israel and Ukraine.

Moving to the global economic week ahead, markets will closely watch China’s 3rd quarter GDP figures.  Also this week, Japan releases CPI numbers while closer to home, the Federal Reserve releases the Beige Book on Wednesday, and Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell gives a speech in New York on Thursday.  Powell will be joined throughout the week with multiple Fed Governors and Presidents giving speeches. 

Here is what else we are watching around the world this coming week:

Sunday, October 15, 2023

Global

  • The World Bank/IMF Meetings conclude.

  • The International Olympic Committee meets in Mumbai to determine if a number of sports are included in the 2028 Los Angeles Olympics, including cricket.

  • The hybrid World Health Summit will take place in Berlin, Germany, through October 17.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Ecuador holds presidential run-off elections.  The race is between lawyer and politician Luisa González and businessman and son of former President Alvaro Noboa Daniel Noboa. 

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Russia's Duma Chair Vyacheslav Volodin will visit Vietnam to meet with National Assembly chair Vuong Dinh Hue through Oct. 16.

  • The 134th Canton (China) Import and Export Fair will open in Guangzhou, China.  It is widely seen as a metric for the state of Chinese foreign trade.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • New Zealand holds general elections.  All 120 members of the Parliament are up for election.  Polls show the center-right National Party holding a strong lead, but observers believe a coalition government of some sort will be required for them to lead.

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Saudi Arabia Inflation (September), Wholesale Prices (September)

  • Israel Inflation (September)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.  

 

Monday, October 16, 2023

Global

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • The U.S. Commerce Department is expected to present as early as today new restrictions on semiconductor and other hi-tech equipment sales to China.

  • Jamaica celebrates Heroes’ Day, a national holiday.  The day commemorates scholars, businessmen, and other leaders who contributed to the freedom of Jamaica.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker to speak on the economic outlook before the Mortgage Bankers Association Annual Convention & Expo in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.  Later in the day, Harker will speak virtually on the economic outlook before the National Association of Corporate Directors Webinar.

  • US New York Empire State Manufacturing Index (October)

  • Canada Wholesale Sales (August), Manufacturing Sales (August)

  • Paraguay Consumer Confidence (September)

  • Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

  • Peru GDP (August), Unemployment (September)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • China PBoC 1-Year MLF Announcement

  • Japan Industrial Production (August), Capacity Utilization (August)

  • Indonesia Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (September)

  • New Zealand Services & Composite NZ PCIs (September)

  • Indonesia Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (September)

  • Philippines Remittances (August)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • EU President Ursula von der Leyen stays in Albania to attend the Berlin Process Summit.   The Berlin Process was established in 2014 as a platform for high-level cooperation between officials of the Western Balkan Six (WB^) and their peers in Berlin and EU institutions, international financial intuitions, and the region’s civil society.  She will take part in the inauguration of the liaison office of the College of Europe in Tirana.

  • The EU Environmental Council meets in Luxembourg to discuss urban wastewater treatment, Co2 emission standards for heavy-duty vehicles, and preparing for the COP28 climate change conference that is being held in Dubai from November 30 to December 12, 2023.

  • The Constitutional Court of Georgia will announce a decision on the impeachment of President Salome Zurabishvili. 

Economic Reports/Events –

  

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Turkey Budget Balance (September)

  • Israel GDP (Q2)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nigeria Inflation (September) 

 

Tuesday, October 17, 2023

Global

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Congress returns to session after being out last week for the Columbus Day holiday.  The House of Representatives will continue seeking a new Speaker of the House, with a new vote being scheduled for today.  Representative Jim Jordan (R-OH) was chosen by the Republican Caucus last week in a close vote.  But it does not appear he has enough support to win in a general vote of the House.

  • Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau hosts the first-ever Canada-CARICOM Summit in Ottawa.  Leaders from the 15 CARICOM (Caribbean Community) member states and five associate members will discuss how, together with Canada, can build inclusive and sustainable economies, increase trade and investment, and promote multilateral collaboration. The leaders will also work to develop better policies to fight climate change and address its impacts in the Caribbean, including by exploring ways to improve access to financing for Small Island Developing States in the Caribbean.

  • Chile’s President Gabriel Boric and Argentine President Alberto Fernández attend the Belt and Road Forum in China.

  • FBI Director Christopher Wray is expected to hold a meeting of the “Five Eyes” members (intelligence chiefs of Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the UK, and the U.S.) in Washington, D.C.

  • Former President Trump is expected to return to a New York State Courthouse today and all this week as his state civil fraud trial continues.  The President’s former legal counsel, Michael Cohen, and several of his former bankers are expected to testify against him. At some point, Trump is reportedly expected to take the stand and testify in his own defense.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech entitled ”Responsible Innovation in Money and Payments” at the Harvard Law School Program on International Financial Systems Roundtable on Central Bank Digital Currency, Washington, D.C.

  • New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams to moderate a discussion with Intel INTC.O Chief Executive Pat Gelsinger at the Economic Club of New York.

  • Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Tom Barkin speaks to the Real Estate Roundtable.

  • US Retail Sales (September), Redbook (October 14), Industrial Production (September), Capacity Utilization (September), Manufacturing Production (September),  Business Inventories (August), NAHB Housing Market Index (October), API Crued Oil Stock Change (October 13)

  • Canada Housing Starts (September), Inflation (September), CPI (September), New Motor Vehicles Sales (August)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • China Foreign Direct Investment (September)

  • Japan Tertiary Industry Index (August)

  • South Korea Export Prices (September), Import Prices (September)

  • Australia Reserve Bank Meeting Minutes

  • New Zealand Inflation (Q3), CPI (Q3), Global Dairy Trade Price Index

  • Singapore Non-Oil Exports (September), Balance of Trade (September)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos gives a dinner speech at the 5th ECB Macroprudential Policy and Research Conference in Frankfurt, Germany.

  • ECB Board Member Kerstin af Jochnick gives a speech followed by Q&A at the European Supervisors' Education Initiative conference in Berlin, Germany.

  • Bank of England Swati Dhingra participates in a panel at the Royal Economic Summit 2023 in London.

  • Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (October)

  • Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (October), ZEW Current Conditions (October)

  • UK Unemployment (August)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Qatar Inflation (September)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Wednesday, October 18, 2023

Global

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech on the economic outlook at the Distinguished Speaker Seminar (European Economics and Financial Centre), London, England.

  • Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman gives opening remarks at the Fed Listens event hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, Richmond, Virginia.

  • Federal Reserve Governor Lisa D. Cook gives opening remarks at The Evolution of the Federal Reserve's Employment Mandate at the Louis E. Martin Awards Ceremony at the 2023 Future of Black Communities Summit, Washington, D.C.

  • New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams to participate in a moderated discussion at Queens College, New York.

  • Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker to speak on "Workforce Challenges" before the "People, Possibilities, Practice: Designing a Better Future for Workers" event hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

  • US Beige Book, MBA Mortgage Market Indexes (October 13), Building Permits (September), Housing Starts (September), EIA Crude Oil Stocks Changes (October 13)

  • Brazil Retail Sales (August)

  • Argentina Leading Indicator (September)

  • Colombia ISE Economic Activity (August)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • China GDP (Q3), Retail Sales (September), Industrial Production (September), Unemployment (September), Industrial Capacity Utilization (Q3)

  • Australia Westpac Leading Index (September)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • The European Space Agency Council meets through October 19 in Paris.  The session will focus on improved sharing of Earth observation data for environmental purposes, including enhanced cooperation with Poland and preparations for the Space Summit to be held in November 2023.

  • EU President Ursula von der Leyen participates in the European Parliament plenary debate in preparation for the European Council meeting, which is being held October 26-27.

  • Former Austrian Chancellor Sebastian Kurz goes on trial for giving false testimony.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • ECB President Christine Lagarde makes a visit to Mike Josef, Lord Mayor of Frankfurt, Germany. 

  • ECB Board Member Frank Elderson participates in a panel at the launch of the public consultation of the MAS Transition Planning Guidelines (TPG) in Singapore.

  • Bank of England External Member of the Financial Policy Committee Elisabeth Stheeman gives a speech at the London School of Economics on “Cyber Risks and Operational Resilience” in London.

  • Eurozone Inflation (September), Construction Output (August), CPI (September)

  • UK Inflation (September), PPI (September), Retail Sales (September)

  • Slovakia Inflation (September)

  • Italy Balance of Trade (August)

  • Bulgaria Current Account (August)

  • Russia PPI (September)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Turkey Auto Production (September)

  • Israel Unemployment (September), Inflation Expectations (October), M1 Money Supply (September)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Angola FX Reserves (September), M3 Money Supply (September)

  • South Africa Inflation (September), Retail Sales (August)

 

 

Thursday, October 19, 2023

Global

Americas

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Indonesia begins registration for presidential candidates and runs through October 25.  The election is on February 14, 2024, and at this point, three candidates are expected to run, including Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto, former Central Java Gov. Ganjar Pranowo and former Jakarta Gov. Anies Baswedan. 

Economic Reports/Events –

  • China House Price Index (September)

  • Japan Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (September)

  • South Korea Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

  • Australia Unemployment (September)

  • Malaysia Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (September)

  • Indonesia Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Loan Growth (October)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Eurozone Current Account (August)

  • France Business Confidence (October)

  • Switzerland Balance of Trade (September)

  • Poland Unemployment (September), Industrial Production (September), PPI (September)

  • Spain Balance of Trade (August)

  • Italy Current Account (August)

  • Serbia Current Account (August)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Turkey FX Reserves (October 13)

  • Israel Manufacturing PMI (September)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • South Africa Building Permits (August)

 

Friday, October 20, 2023

Global

  • The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on the Maintenance of international peace and security: Contributions of regional mechanisms for peace and security. 

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • The EU-US Summit will be held in Washington, D.C.  In advance of the meetings, US and EU negotiators are working to iron out an on green steel and critical minerals before President Joe Biden hosts European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President Charles Michel in Washington.  Additionally, they are working to avoid the reimposition of Trump-era tariffs on European goods, as well as expanded European retaliation against billions of dollars of American exports. The U.S. and the EU have set a deadline of October 31 to reach a deal on a “global arrangement” that would slash the tariffs while simultaneously pushing back against the Chinese steel and aluminum industries.

  • Today is Revolution Day in Guatemala, a national holiday commemorating the day in 1944 when a democratic rebellion overthrew the government of military dictator Jorge Ubico.

  • The Pan American Games begin in Chile.  They run through November 5.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester to speak to the SOMC Fall Meeting at the Manhattan Institute for Policy Research in New York.

  • Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker to speak on the economic outlook before the Risk Management Association Philadelphia Chapter Meeting.

  • US Baker-Hughes Oil Rig Count (October 20)

  • Canada New Housing Price Index (September), Retail Sales (August), Wholesale Sales (August)

  • Mexico Retail Sales (August)

  • Argentina Balance of Trade (September)

  • El Salvador Balance of Trade (September)

  • Colombia Imports (August), Balance of Trade (August)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • China Loan Prime Rate 1Y, Loan Prime Rate 5Y

  • India Bank Loan Growth (October 6), FX Reserves (October 13)

  • Japan Inflation (September)

  • New Zealand Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (September), Credit Card Spending (September)

  • Malaysia GDP (Q3)

  • Thailand New Car Sales (September)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • Bosnian Serb President Milorad Dodik is expected to travel to Moscow for meetings with President Vladimir Putin.  Dodik, who is under U.S. sanctions, was indicted in Bosnia in August for ignoring decisions by the Bosnian Constitutional Court and the International High Representative Christian Schmidt, who is in charge of implementation of the Dayton Agreement that was put into effect in the 1990s over the governance of Republika Srpska, a Serb-majority entity in the country.  Dodik is likely to seek Putin’s support and help in furthering trade and investment in Bosnia and continued favorable gas prices from Russia.  Dodik has met several times with Putin in the last two years and is seen as a supporter of the Russian President.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • ECB Board Member Elizabeth McCaul gives a speech at the conference "SSM Regulation, ten years since" in Rome, Italy.

  • Eurozone New Car Registrations (September)

  • Germany PPI (September)

  • UK Gfk Consumer Confidence (October), Retail Sales (September), Public Sector Net Borrowing (September)

  • Italy Construction Output (August)

  • Ireland Consumer Confidence (October), Wholesale Prices (September)

  • Greece Current Account (August)

  • Poland Retail Sales (September)

  • Slovenia Inflation (September), Consumer Confidence (October)

  • Slovakia Unemployment (September), Current Account (September)

  • Croatia Unemployment (August)

  • Kosovo Balance of Trade (September)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Turkey Central Government Debt (September)

 

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nigeria Central Bank Interest Rate Decision 

 

Saturday, October 21, 2023

Global

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • In Chile, today is the deadline for the drafters of a new constitution to deliver a new draft for public review.  Initial reviews suggest it will face a tough reception as being too conservative. This is a second attempt to write a new constitution.  A previous draft was rejected by votes by a 62% to 38% margin as being too liberal.  That version was several thousand pages long and was widely criticized for being too micro-focused. 

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

 

Sunday, October 22, 2023

 Global

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • In Japan, voters in Nagasaki and Tokushima-Kochi will vote for lower and upper-house candidates.  The outcome of the elections is expected to influence if and when Prime Minister Fumio Kishida holds snap elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Francis Kelly
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