The Global Week Ahead

Written By Francis Kelly

September 10 - 17, 2023

First and foremost, we remember this week the victims of the 9/11 terror attacks, which took place 23 years ago.  The pain and memories of that tragic day do not dim for most of us.

Looking at the rest of the week ahead, it is jam-packed with major geopolitical and economic events.  President Biden visits Vietnam after the conclusion of the G20 Summit on Sunday, seeking stronger diplomatic and trade relations – a move being watched closely by Beijing.  Meanwhile, Chinese President Xi Jinping hosts Venezuelan President Nicholas Maduro to strengthen ties with the oil-rich dictatorial Latin American country as Hong Kong hosts the annual Belt and Road Summit of participating countries.

 Also this week, Russian President Vladimir Putin will meet with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in Vladivostok to arrange North Korean weapons and ammunition sales to help bolster Russian military efforts in Ukraine – risking new, tougher sanctions on both nations.

In the U.S., the House of Representatives returns from the August recess and immediately begins battling over getting appropriations bills done before the end of the month or risk a government shutdown.  Also, in the U.S. this week, the United Auto Workers are scheduled to go on strike unless new contracts are struck with the Big Three auto manufacturers, a potential new drag on the U.S. economy.

On the economic radar screen this week, markets will be watching the European Central Bank’s meeting and announcement on Thursday whether they have decided to raise interest rates again (which seems to be the consensus) as much of Europe – especially Germany – is struggling to stem stagnant economies.  Also of note, U.S. CPI figures are out later this week, as well as unemployment numbers.  In Asia, China will release inflation figures on Saturday and new unemployment figures. 

Below is our weekly report of what else we are watching around the world this coming week:

Sunday, September 10, 2023

Global

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador visits Chile.

  • Mexico’s Morena party concludes a weeklong selection process to determine who will represent the party during next year’s presidential election.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing Significant to Report (NSTR)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • The Eastern Economic Forum will be held in Vladivostok, Russia. The purpose of the meeting, which includes leaders from Central Asia, is the encourage investment and economic development in Russia’s Far East.  Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to use the Forum to meet with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un on greater weapons sales to Russia to support Russian forces in Ukraine.

  • Russia will hold regional and local elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Egypt Inflation (August)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • The Africa Venture Capital Summit 2023 begins in Kenya, bringing more than 300 investors from 35 countries to look at investment opportunities on the continent.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR 

Monday, September 11, 2023 

Global

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Today is the 23rd anniversary of the terrorist attacks in New York, Pennsylvania, and on the Pentagon.

  • The trial begins of ex-Peruvian President Alejandro Toledo, accused of taking bribes from Brazilian company Odebrecht.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • US Consumer Inflation Expectations (August), The American Bar Association's Economic Advisory Committee holds a virtual discussion with leading Wall Street bank economists on "Economic Forecast” in Washington, D.C.

  • Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

  • Mexico Industrial Production (July)

  • El Salvador PPI (August)

  • Uruguay Industrial Production (July)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is expected to shuffle his Cabinet.

  • French President Emmanuel Macron will visit Dhaka, Bangladesh, following the Group of 20 summit in New Delhi, India, to discuss climate change, trade issues, and the Rohingya crisis.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Japan machine tool orders (August)

  • India passenger vehicle sales (August)

  • Malaysia Industrial Production (July), Retail Sales (July)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • U.S. and Armenian troops will carry out military exercises in Armenia until Sept. 20 in a sign of deepening ties and waning Russian influence.

  • The defense ministers of Germany, Estonia, and Latvia will visit German arms maker Diehl in Roethenbach an der Pegnitz, Bavaria.

  • Norway holds local elections.

  • Today is National Day in Catalonia, Spain.  It is expected that large independence rallies will be held throughout the region.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • The European Commission publishes economic forecasts for 2023 and 2024.

  • Italy Industrial Production (July)

  • Romania Balance of Trade (July)

  • Serbia Industrial Production (July)

  • Slovenia Industrial Production (July)

  • Russia Balance of Trade (July)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • special envoy to Lebanon, former Foreign Minister Le Drian, visits Beirut for talks aimed at resolving a year-long impasse over filling Lebanon’s presidency and forming a stable government.

  • The United Arab Emirates campaign season for its Oct. 7 legislative elections will begin.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Saudi Arabia industrial production (July)

  • Turkey unemployment (July), Industrial production (July), Current Account (July)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • South Africa Manufacturing Production (July) 

 

Tuesday, September 12, 2023

Global

  • Today is the opening of the 78th UN General Assembly.

  • Russia is expected to request a U.N. Security Council meeting to discuss Western arms supplies to Ukraine.

  • The World Trade Organization (WTO) will launch its World Trade Report.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • The U.S. House of Representatives returns from its August recess to begin considering appropriations bills that must be completed by the end of the month or risk a federal government shutdown. The U.S. Senate will begin considering three bipartisan spending bills this week, which will pressure House Republicans to move more quickly on passing legislation and avoid a shutdown.

  • Google’s antitrust trial begins.  The U.S. Justice Department’s Antitrust Division has brought the case, and it is seen as the keystone to the Biden Administration’s policy toward restraining Big Tech’s growing market share of the tech sector (DoJ is also reportedly investigating Amazon, Apple, Ticketmaster, and other big tech companies).

  • Apple holds its annual event – dubbed “Wonderlust” – to unveil new products, including the highly-anticipated iPhone 15.

  • The U.S. Chamber of Commerce holds its 2023 Global Aerospace Summit, with the theme, "Innovating the Skies, Connecting the World," through September 13.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • US NFIB Business Optimism Index (August), Redbook (September 9), WASDE Report

  • Brazil Inflation (August)

  • Colombia Balance of Trade (July)

  • Paraguay Balance of Trade (August)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • China Total Social Financing (August), M2 Money Supply (August), Vehicle Sales (August), New Yuan Loans (August), Outstanding Loan Growth (August)

  • India Manufacturing Production (July), Inflation (August)

  • Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Change (September), NAB Business Confidence (August)

  • Philippines FDI (June)

  • Pakistan Consumer Confidence (August)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

Northern Ireland's investment summit will occur through Sept. 13 in Belfast, Northern Ireland.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Catherine Mann gives a speech at the Canadian Association for Business Economics Conference ‘Post-Pandemic Economics: What does the "New Normal" look like?  in Ontario, Canada.

  • Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (September)

  • Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (September), Current Account (July)

  • UK Employment (July)

  • Spain CPI (August), Inflation (August)

  • Serbia Construction Output (July), Inflation (August)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Israel's Supreme Court will hear petitions against the government's "reasonableness" judicial reform law in a potentially major constitutional challenge between the country's different branches of government.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Turkey Retail Sales (July)

  • Israel Budget Balance (August), Consumer Confidence (August)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • The Africa Crime Prevention Forum begins in Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Rwanda Inflation Rate (August)

  • Nigeria Balance of Trade (June)

  • Angola Inflation (August), Wholesale Prices (August)

 

Wednesday, September 13, 2023

Global

  • UN Secretary-General António Guterres is scheduled to deliver remarks at the United Nations Peace Bell Ceremony on the occasion of the International Day of Peace.  This event will take place in the Japanese Garden.

  • OPEC Monthly Report

  • International Energy Agency (IEA) Oil Market Report

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • U.S. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) begins a series of Artificial Intelligence (AI) Forums featuring tech leaders, activists, and academics.  The purpose of the Forums is to educate senators on AI and the potential implications of its power.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • US Inflation (August), CPI (August), MBA Mortgage Market Indexes (September 8)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Hong Kong will host the annual Belt and Road Summit.  Trade and foreign ministers from countries participating in the Belt and Road effort are expected to attend.  The event will also have a special Middle East Forum to discuss greater economic and trade opportunities.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Japan Reuters Tankan Index (August), BSI Large Manufacturing (Q3), PPI (August)

  • South Korea Import & Export Prices (August), Unemployment (August)

  • Hong Kong Industrial Production (Q2)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • EU President Ursula von der Leyen gives the 2023 State of the Union address in Strasbourg, France.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Eurozone Industrial Production (July)

  • UK GDP (July), Goods Trade Balance (July), Industrial Production (July), Manufacturing Production (July), Balance of Trade (July), Construction Output (July)

  • Poland Industrial Production (July), Balance of Trade (July), Current Account (July)

  • Romania Industrial Production (July), Inflation Rate (August), Current Account (July)

  • Hungary Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Industrial Production (July)

  • Bulgaria Balance of Trade (July)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Turkey Auto Production (August)

  • Israel Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (August)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Thursday, September 14, 2023

Global

  • UN Secretary-General António Guterres will travel to Cuba to attend the G77 + China meeting (he is expected to deliver remarks on Friday).  The purpose of the meeting is to bolster the voice of the Global South at the upcoming UN Assembly.  Interestingly, India’s foreign minister canceled his planned attendance at the summit, which some observers see as retaliation for Chinese President Xi Jinping’s last-minute decision to skip the G20 meetings hosted in India earlier this week.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Auto workers will go on strike in the US at midnight unless a new contract is agreed to between the Big Three Auto manufacturers and the United Auto Workers.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • US Retail Sales (August), PPI (August), Initial Jobless Claims (September 9), Business Inventories (July),

  • Canada Wholesale Sales (July)

  • Argentina Inflation (August)

  • Peru Balance of Trade (July)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • An IMF delegation will visit Sri Lanka through September 27 to assess the bankrupt island’s progress in implementing a $3 billion bailout deal that was agreed to earlier this year.  If the assessment is positive, the country would qualify for more funding.

  • Workers at Chevron’s Gorgon and Wheatstone LNG facilities in Australia will vote on whether to extend and escalate their strike in a bid to improve pay.

  • South Korean Railway Union workers are expected to go on strike for better wages.

  • Taipei Aerospace Defence Technology Exhibition and Taipei Aerospace Show begins.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Japan Machinery Orders (July), Industrial Production (July), Capacity Utilization (July)

  • India WPI Inflation (August), WPI Food Index (August), WPI Fuel (August), WPI Manufacturing (August)

  • Australia Employment (August)

  • Singapore Unemployment (Q2)

  • Indonesia Car Sales (August)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni will chair the fourth Budapest Demographic Summit through Sept. 16.

  • EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell hosts Kosovar PM Albin Kurti and Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic for talks.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • The European Central Bank’s Governing Council meets in Frankfurt, Germany, to consider interest rate policy. ECB President Christine Lagarde holds a press conference afterward.

  • ECB Board Member Fernandez-Bollo chairs a panel entitled "Priorities for improving the EU bank crisis management framework for medium-sized banks" at The EUROFI 2023 Financial Forum organized in association with the Spanish Presidency of the Council of the EU in Santiago de Compostela, Spain.

  • ECB Board Member Elizabeth McCaul participates in a panel "Managing risks in the banking sector" at The EUROFI 2023 Financial Forum organized in association with the Spanish Presidency of the Council of the EU in Santiago de Compostela, Spain.

  • ECB Board Member Andrea Enria gives a speech at The EUROFI 2023 Financial Forum organized in association with the Spanish Presidency of the Council of the EU in Santiago de Compostela, Spain.

  • Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (August)

  • Serbia CPI (August), Inflation (August)

  • Ukraine Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Balance of Trade (June)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Saudi Arabia Wholesale Prices (August), Inflation (August)

  • Turkey FX Reserves (September 8)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Nigerian separatist leader Nnamdi Kanu will appeal to the Nigerian Supreme Court to release him from detention.  A year ago, a lower court cleared him of terrorism charges, but the Nigerian government appealed that decision.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • South Africa Mining Production (July), Gold Production (July), SACCI Business Confidence (August)

  

Friday, September 15, 2023

Global

  • Rosh Hashana begins marking the Jewish New Year.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • US Import & Export Prices (August), New York Empire State Manufacturing Index (September), Industrial Production (August), Manufacturing Production (August), Michigan Consumer Sentiment ((September), Michigan Inflation Expectations (September), Michigan Current Conditions (September)

  • Canada New Motor Vehicles Sales (July)

  • Brazil Retail Sales (July)

  • Colombia Retail Sales (July), Industrial Production (July)

  • Peru GDP (Q2), Unemployment (August)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • South Korea and the United States will hold their fourth round of extended deterrence talks in Seoul, South Korea.

  • The Milken Asia Summit begins in Singapore.  US Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo will speak.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • China People’s Bank of China 1-Year MLF Announcement, Industrial Production (August), Retail Sales (August), Unemployment (August)

  • India Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (August), FX Reserves (September 8)

  • Indonesia Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (August)

  • Japan Tertiary Industry Index (July)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • The Eurogroup meets in Santiago de Compostela, Spain.  They are expected to discuss macroeconomic developments in the EU as well as the selection process of a new ECB Executive Board member.  ECB President Christine Lagarde holds a press conference following the meeting.

  • The EU Economic and Financial Affairs Ministers will hold informal meetings through September 16 in Santiago de Compostela, Spain.

  • ECB Board Member Edouard Fernandez-Bollo chairs a panel entitled "Bank diversity in Europe: consolidation and/or preservation?" at The EUROFI 2023 Financial Forum organized in association with the Spanish Presidency of the Council of the EU in Santiago de Compostela, Spain.

  • Eurozone Budget Balance (August), Balance of Trade (August), Labor Cost Index (Q2), Wage Growth (Q2)

  • Germany Wholesale Prices (August)

  • France Inflation (August), Inflation (August), New Car Registrations (August)

  • Italy Inflation (August), CPI (August), Balance of Trade (July)

  • Poland Inflation (August)

  • Ireland Balance of Trade (July)

  • Hungary Construction (July), CPI (August), Inflation (August)

  • Greece Construction Output (Q2)

  • Bulgaria Inflation (August)

  • Serbia Building Permits (July)

  • Ukraine GDP (Q2)

  • Russia Central Bank Interest Rate Decision and press conference

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Israel Inflation (August)

 

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Botswana Inflation (August)

  • Nigeria Food Inflation (August), Inflation (August)

  • Angola Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

 

Saturday, September 16, 2023

Global

  • NSTR

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • Germany begins the 188th Annual Oktoberfest in Munich.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR 

 

Sunday, September 17, 2023 

Global

  • NSTR

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Reserve Bank of Australia Philip Lowe steps down as Governor and is succeeded by Michele Bullock.

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • NSTR

Economic Reports/Events –

  • NSTR

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Francis Kelly
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