The Global Week Ahead

Written By Francis Kelly

December 10 - 17, 2023

It was already going to be a particularly busy week for markets as the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of England all meet to discuss interest rates.  The general market consensus is all three will pause – and may well be done – raising rates.  But as important as this is to markets, geopolitical events this week may steal market participants' attention.  At the top of that list is the make-it-or-break-it moment in the US Congress as to whether a much-needed aid package for Ukraine and Israel is approved. Congress is scheduled to adjourn Thursday for Christmas break and will return on January 9th.

As an indication of how critical the situation is, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is coming to Washington on Tuesday to meet with President Biden and Congressional leaders to make his case for funding.

The impasse is not so much whether Congress should approve further funding for Ukraine but whether they can agree on new US border security provisions. However, a new poll released late Sunday night by the Financial Times may make it even harder to finalize a deal. The poll found that 48 percent of Americans believe the US is spending "too much" on Ukraine, and only 11 percent said it is not spending enough. 

Elsewhere this week, European Union leaders gather for the European Council to consider Ukraine's accession to the EU, how to provide further aid to Ukraine, and discuss growing budgetary challenges in member states (most notably Germany and France). 

In Latin America, Venezuelan. President Nicolas Maduro will meet with Guyana President Mohamed Irfaan Ali to discuss the ongoing tensions between the two countries after Maduro ran a rigged election to claim Guyana's oil and gas deposits.   Maduro has threatened to invade Guyana in the face of growing regional and global criticism for his sudden and oddly timed aggressive demand.  Maduro’s national referendum backfired on him as the vast majority of Venezuelans did not show up to vote. Oil markets are watching this issue closely.

Moving to Asia, we are watching South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol’s visit to the Netherlands this week.  It is a further indication of how semiconductors and foreign policy are becoming even more intertwined. South Korean wants to establish a “chip alliance” with the Netherlands.  The Dutch chip firm ASML is a major supplier to South Korea’s chip giant Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix.  Yoon is going to visit the ASML headquarters in recognition of ASML building a massive new assembly facility in South Korea. This all comes after the Netherlands curbed the sale of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China this past June.  

Moving back to market events and what else is on the economic radar screen this week aside from the Big Three Central Bank Rate Decisions, markets will be watching key US data releases, including the CPI report and retail sales data. They will also be keenly looking at China's release of inflation data and other economic releases later this week.

Here is what else we are watching around the world this coming week

Sunday, December 10, 2023

Global

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Argentine President-elect Javier Milei will be sworn into office.  Meanwhile, the Argentine Union of State Employees (ATE) is expected to conduct a 24-hour strike to protest Milei’s planned fiscal plans.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council will meet through December 11 to discuss the market situation and to exchange views on the first year of implementation of the CAP strategic plans.  Additionally, the Council is expected to address the new genomic techniques regulation, the sustainable use of pesticides regulation, and the proposals for plant reproductive material and for forest reproductive material. Finally, fisheries ministers will aim to reach a political agreement on the proposal for fishing opportunities in the Atlantic and the North Sea for 2024 and, in the case of some stocks, also for 2025 and 2026, as well as on the proposal concerning fishing opportunities in the Mediterranean and the Black Sea for 2024.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Egypt holds presidential elections. President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi is widely expected to win re-election.

  • The Doha Forum begins in Doha, Qatar.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report. 

 

Monday, December 11, 2023

Global

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • The US Congress returns to work, their final week before their schedule to break for the Christmas holiday.  They are expected to focus on finding a way to approve funding for Ukraine and Israel, but ongoing disagreements over funding for US border security will likely make reaching a comprehensive deal unlikely.

  • Former President Donald Trump is expected to testify at his fraud trial in New York. Additionally, House Republicans are expected to unveil a bill that would formalize an impeachment inquiry of President Biden.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

  • El Salvador PPI (November)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Japan BSI Large Manufacturing (Q4), Machine Orders (November)

  • Indonesia Retail Sales (October)

  • Malaysia Industrial Production (October), Retail Sales (October)

  • Pakistan Consumer Confidence (November)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • The Eastern Partnership Foreign Affairs Ministerial meeting takes place in Brussels.  The Foreign Ministers of Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, the Republic of Moldova, and Ukraine will gather with EU Foreign Ministers to discuss how the Eastern Partnership can continue to ensure that the needs of member states and partner countries are met, what should be the key priorities of joint work in 2024, how to accelerate the delivery of the Economic and Investment Plan for the Eastern Partnership and how to increase cooperation with regions such as Central Asia and the Western Balkans and synergies with other regional policies such as the Black Sea Synergy. Ministers will aim to solidify their commitment on concrete deliverables for 2024, notably in the area of regional roaming, road safety, and transport.  The meeting will also likely see side-mediated talks between Armenia and Azerbaijan over ongoing tensions after recent military action Azerbaijan took to seize land from Armenia.

  • Separately, the EU Foreign Affairs Council meets by themselves separately to discuss the situation in Ukraine as well as the situation in Israel and the Sahel.

  • Estonian President Alar Karis hosts Latvia President Edgars Rinkevics and Lithuania President Gitanas Nauseda in Tallinn, Estonia. They are expected to discuss mutual security and economic issues.

  • Donald Tusk, the former European Council President and former Prime Minister of Poland, is expected to be appointed Poland’s Prime Minister again.

  • The Salzburg Forum takes place through December 12 in Salzburg, Austria.  The Forum is a Central European security partnership of Austria, Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia that cooperates on police, illegal immigration, fighting illegal drug trade, traffic safety, and other areas of internal security. Interior Ministers of these country are expected to discuss extending Schengen rules for air travel among their borders.

  • German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and outgoing Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte to discuss the upcoming European Council meeting and is expected  hold a joint press conference in Berlin, Germany.  Rutte is seeking to be named the next NATO Secretary General.

  • UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak all-day evidence session at the COVID-19 inquiry.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • ECB Board Member Elizabeth McCaul participates on a panel entitled "Greek Banking Sector – Growth & Development Outlook" at the 25th Annual Capital Link "Invest in Greece Forum" organized by Capital Link in New York.

  • Slovakia Industrial Production (October)

  • Romania Balance of Trade (October)

  • Ukraine GDP (Q3)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Egypt Inflation (November)

  • Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (October)

  • Turkey Industrial Production (October), Current Account (October), Participation Rate (October), Unemployment (October)

  • Israel Budget Balance (November), Consumer Confidence (November)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Today is Republic Day in Burkina Faso, celebrating the nation’s independence in 1958.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Tuesday, December 12, 2023

Global

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • President Biden will host Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the White House.   Zelensky will also meet with Speaker of the House Michael Johnson (D-LA) and other senior House leaders, as well as with senior Senate members.  The meeting comes at a critical time as Congress is at an impasse on finalizing an aid package for Ukraine and Israel.

  • n US Federal Court, former Venezuelan military intelligence director Hugo Carvajal appears for a procedural hearing ahead of a forthcoming trial on drug-trafficking charges.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • US Inflation (November), CPI (November), Redbook (December 9), Monthly Budget Statement (November), NFIB Business Optimism Index (November)

  • Mexico Industrial Production (October)

  • Brazil Inflation (November), Business Confidence (December)

  • Colombia Balance of Trade (October)

  • Uruguay Industrial Production (October)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Reserve Bank of Australia Michelle Bullock Speech

  • Japan PPI (November)

  • India Inflation (October), Manufacturing Production (October)

  • Australia Westpac Consumer Index (December), NAB Business Confidence (November)

  • Philippines Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (October)

  • Pakistan Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • Russia's Central Election Commission will decide whether to hold elections in annexed Ukrainian regions.   The Commission is consulting with the Russian Ministry of Defense, FSB, and local occupation officials over when to conduct them.

  • The EU General Affairs Council meets in Brussels in preparations for the upcoming European Council.  They are expected to also discuss enlargement, annual rule of law dialogue, and managing demographic change in Europe. Ministers will also take stock of negotiations for an association agreement with Andorra and San Marino and discuss Spain’s request to amend regulation no 1/1958.

  • The European Parliament will debate and take a final vote on the Critical Raw Materials Act, which aims to boost the supply of strategic raw materials and increase the EU’s competitiveness and sovereignty.

  • European Parliament President Roberta Metsola will award the 2023 Sakharov Prize for Freedom of Thought to Jina Mahsa Amini and the Woman, Life, Freedom Movement in Iran. Jina Mahsa Amini was a 22-year-old Iranian Kurdish woman who died following physical abuse at the hands of the Iranian security services while in custody. Her death sparked massive women-led protests in Iran against the hijab law and other discriminatory laws.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • ECB Board Member Elizabeth McCaul participates on a panel entitled "Risk stemming from the intertwined financial markets" organized by the European American Chamber of Commerce New York (EACCY) in New York,

  • Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (December)

  • Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (December)

  • UK Unemployment (October)

  • Serbia Inflation (November)

  • Slovakia Construction Output (October)

  • Bulgaria Balance of Trade (October)

  • Russia Balance of Trade (October)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • In Geneva, the Foreign Ministers of Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Egypt, Jordan, Indonesia, and Palestinian Territories hold a joint press conference on the situation in Gaza Strip.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Turkey Auto Production (November)

  • Egypt Current Account (Q3)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • The Senegal Supreme Court is considering if opposition leader Ousmane Sonko can run for president in February 2024.

  • The African Development Bank and OECD Development Centre will host an online panel to discuss the role natural gas can play in developing countries for a balance between reducing poverty, achieving a green transition and protecting the planet. 

  • Today is Jamhuri Day in Kenya, a national holiday commemorating when the country was admitted to the Commonwealth in 1964.

  • Economic Reports/Events –

  • South Africa Mining Production (October), Manufacturing Production (October), SACCI Business Confidence (October & November)

  • Angola Inflation (November)

 

 

Wednesday, December 13, 2023

Global

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference

  • US PPI (November), MBA Mortgage Market Index (December 8), NIESR Monthly GDP Tacker (November)

  • Brazil Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

  • Colombia Consumer Confidence (November)

  • Argentina Inflation (November)

  • Peru Balance of Trade (October)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Japan Tankan Manufacturing & Industry Outlooks (Q4)

  • South Korea Import & Export Prices (November), Unemployment (November)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Eurozone Industrial Production (October)

  • Germany Current Account (October)

  • UK GDP (October), Industrial Production (October), Manufacturing Production (October), Balance of Trade (October), Construction Output (October)

  • Hungary Industrial Production (October)

  • Switzerland SECO Economic Forecasts

  • Ireland Residential Property Prices (October)

  • Romania Industrial Production (October), Inflation (October)

  • Russia GDP (Q3)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Today is the 20th anniversary of the capture of toppled Iraqi president Saddam Hussein by US troops.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Turkey Retail Sales (October)

  • Israel Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (November)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • The International Monetary Fund is expected to discuss a possible debt relief program for Somalia.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • South Africa Inflation (November)

 

 

Thursday, December 14, 2023

Global

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • China New Yuan Loans (November), M2 Money Supply (November), Outstanding Loan Growth (November), Total Social Financing (November)

  • Japan Machinery Orders (October), Capacity Utilization (October), Industrial Production (October)

  • India WPI Food Index (November), WPI Fuel (November), WPI Inflation (November), WPI Manufacturing (November)

  • Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (December), Unemployment (November)

  • Taiwan Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

  • Hong Kong Interest Rate Decision, Industrial Production (Q3)

  • Singapore Unemployment (Q3)

  • Philippines Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • The European Council meets in Brussels through December 15. The leaders may decide on Ukraine’s accession to the EU at this meeting.  They are also expected to discuss Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine in all its dimensions, the situation in the Middle East, enlargement, the revision of the Multiannual Financial Framework 2021-2027, progress in the implementation of previous conclusions on security and defense, as well as specific foreign policy issues.

  • The German Bundestag is expected to debate and then vote on the government’s emergency draft supplemental budget for 2023.

  • Russian President Vladimir Putin will hold his annual end-of-year press conference under a new format branded "Results of the Year."  This will replace his usual “combined format’ where he would allow call-in questions.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • European Central Bank Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference

  • Bank of England Interest Rate Decision and meeting minutes

  • Spain CPI (November), Inflation (November)

  • Ireland CPI (November), Inflation (November)

  • Switzerland Central Bank Decision, Producer & Import Prices (November)

  • Slovakia Inflation (November), CPI (November)

  • Romania Current Account (October)

  • Poland Balance of Trade (October), Current Account (October)

  • Ukraine Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Israel Current Account (October), M1 Money Supply (October)

  • Turkey FX Reserves (December 8)

  • Oman Total Credit (October), M2 Money Supply (October)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • South Africa SARB Quarterly Bulletin, South Africa Inflation (November), Wholesale Prices (November), PPI (November) 

 

Friday, December 15, 2023

Global

  • The UN Security Council will hold an open debate on small arms: Addressing the threat posed by diversion, illicit trafficking, and misuse of small arms and light weapons and their ammunition to peace and security.

  • Hanukkah ends today.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • In US Federal Court in Washington, D.C., for his role in planning the 1988 bombing of Pan Am Flight 103 over the Scottish town of Lockerbie.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (December), Industrial Production (November), Manufacturing Production (November), S&P Global Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMIs (December), NOPA Crash Report

  • Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem will give a speech at the Canadian Club in Toronto.

  • Canada Housing Starts (November), Wholesale Sales (October)

  • Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity (October)

  • Colombia Retail Sales (October), Industrial Production (October)

  • Paraguay Consumer Confidence (November)

  • Argentina GDP (Q3)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • China Industrial Production (November), Retail Sales (November), FDI (November), Vehicle Sales (November) Fixed Asset Investment (November), Unemployment (November)

  • Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMIs (December), Tertiary Industry Index (October)

  • India Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (November), Bank Loan Growth (December 1)

  • Australia Judo Bank Composite PMI (December)

  • Philippines Cash Remittances (October), Business Confidence (Q4)

  • Indonesia Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (November)

  • Sri Lanka PPI (October), GDP (Q3), Manufacturing PMI (November), Services PMI (November)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Bank of England Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden will give a speech at Deloitte’s On “the Bank’s Resolution Regime” in London.

  • Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMIs (December), Balance of Trade (October), Labor Costs (Q3)

  • Germany Wholesale Prices (November), HCOB Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMIs (December)

  • UK GfK Consumer Confidence (December), S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMIs (December)

  • France Inflation (November), HCOB Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMIs (December)

  • Italy CPI (November), Inflation (November)

  • Ireland Balance of Trade (October)

  • Poland Inflation (November)

  • Greece Construction Output (Q30

  • Hungary Construction Output (October), Inflation (November), CPI (November)

  • Bulgaria Inflation (November)

  • Ukraine Balance of Trade (October)

  • Russia Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report. 

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Turkey Budget Balance (November)

  • Israel GDP (Q3), Inflation (November)

 

Africa:

Political/Social Events –

  • Madagascar’s president, Andry Rajoelina, will be sworn in for a third term after winning the election on November 16. 

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Angola GDP (Q3), Wholesale Prices (November) 

 

Saturday, December 16, 2023

Global

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • The ASEAN-Japan Summit will meet in Tokyo for a three-day special summit to discuss their response to a number of issues focused on mutual security matters.

  • Kazakhstan celebrates Independence Day today, a national holiday commemorating the country gaining its independence from the Soviet Union in 1991.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Today is National Day in Bahrain, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Sunday, December 17, 2023

Global

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

 

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Israel GDP (Q3)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

  • Nothing significant to report.

Please let us know if you or a colleague would like to be added to our distribution list.

Francis Kelly
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